The Long Term Investor

WELL....can I believe my eyes.....ALL the averages have NOW turned positive. they have been working their way to the positive.......very slowly.....for much of the day. Same sort of market that we have been seeing for months now......weakness in the morning and early day......and.....a slow recovery heading toward the close.

Of course......we STILL have about 50 minutes till the close......so NOTHING is set in stone for the day.

 

Looks like the FED is now doing some damage control.

Fed's Powell orders sweeping ethics review after officials' trading prompts outcry

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-powell-orders-sweeping-ethics-140901608.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has ordered a sweeping review of the ethics rules governing financial holdings and dealings by senior officials at the U.S. central bank, a Fed spokesperson said on Thursday.

Powell ordered the review late last week, the spokesperson said in an emailed statement, following recent reports that two of the Fed system's 12 regional reserve bank presidents had been active investors during 2020, a notably volatile year for asset prices as the country battled the COVID-19 pandemic. Those revelations, originally reported by the Wall Street Journal, prompted senior U.S. lawmakers - including Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts - to demand more stringent restrictions on such activities.

"Because the trust of the American people is essential for the Federal Reserve to effectively carry out our important mission, Chair Powell late last week directed Board staff to take a fresh and comprehensive look at the ethics rules around permissible financial holdings and activities by senior Fed officials," the statement said.

The rules that guide personal financial practices for Fed officials are the same as those for other government agencies, the spokesperson said. Moreover, the Fed has supplemental rules that are stricter than those for Congress and other agencies that are specific to its work.

"This review will assist in identifying ways to further tighten those rules and standards. The Board will make changes, as appropriate, and any changes will be added to the Reserve Bank Code of Conduct," the statement said.

Warren, in a Tweet, called the review "long overdue" but encouraged the Fed's regional bank presidents to impose strict rules on their own.

Following news reports on their trading last week, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren both said they would divest any holdings of individual stocks by Sept. 30 and put the proceeds into index funds or cash.

Their investments were judged by in-house ethics officers to have complied with Fed ethics rules. Kaplan, a former vice-chair of Goldman Sachs, has been an active trader since taking over the Dallas Fed in 2015, with multiple, million-dollar transactions in individual stocks each year, according to finiancial disclosures dating to 2016.

Still, their activity drew a sharp reaction given the context of a pandemic year in which tens of millions faced joblessness and the economy was on the precipice of a threatened depression.

The Fed, beginning in March of 2020, rolled out a response that was record-breaking for its speed and scope, with interest rates slashed to zero and open-ended promises to use bond buying and other tools to keep the economy afloat.

The effort stabilized financial markets, underwrote credit to small businesses and helped set the stage for a fast rebound of jobs and economic growth.

It also triggered a record surge of asset prices following a crash early in the pandemic. Between the Fed's efforts and trillions of dollars in government spending approved by Congress, the S&P 500 Index has more than doubled from its pandemic low on March 23, 2020 and is about 30% above the high hit in the previous month.

It is not unusual for Fed officials to hold extensive portfolios. Powell, a private equity lawyer with a stint at the Washington-based Carlyle Group, has net worth in excess of $17 million and perhaps much higher, according to his latest ethics filings.

But they are not as a rule active traders, and many join the Fed from academic backgrounds or government posts. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's holdings are modest enough that he hand writes his ethics form. Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen's disclosure was notable largely for its stamp collection.

Fed rules explicitly prohibit trading around the time of Fed policy meetings - when market-sensitive information is distributed - requires securities to be held for at least 30 days and forbids officials from holding bank stocks or funds with holdings concentrated in the financial sector that the Fed oversees.

But broader language in the Fed's internal rules requires officials to avoid even the appearance of conflict or of using their position for personal gain.

For Powell, promoted to Fed chair in 2018 by former President Donald Trump and subsequently a target of Trump's ire for his management of Fed interest rate policy, the revelations come at a particularly awkward time.

His current term as chair ends in February, and President Joe Biden is in the midst of deciding whether to appoint him to a second four-year term.

Among those advocating for a change in Fed leadership, one of the chief arguments has been that Powell, a private equity lawyer, has not been strict enough in his approach to Wall Street.

He has also worked to build strong relationships among U.S. lawmakers and has preached the need for the unelected central bankers to be transparent in their actions and accept oversight by the country's elected officials."

MY COMMENT

Talk about an appearance of impropriety......being on the FED during this time period and continuing to do MILLIONS in stock transactions.......each year. Are these people really that dumb.......dont answer that question.

 

NOW.....it is going to be a SEE-SAW battle to the close today for the averages. With 40 minutes to go......EVERYTHING is up in the air in terms of the big averages. They are BOUNCING back and forth from red to green and back to red......repeat, repeat.

I dont care.....I consider it a VICTORY regardless of how we end up.....considering where we were earlier in the day.

 

I am SO GLAD to see us moving through September and the hot weather here. Hopefully we will have a nice COOL early Fall. I have a 3 hour show this Sunday......outside......in the mid 90's heat. Than.....two more outside shows next week. It will be so nice to see the HOT temperatures drop.....hopefully by early October. Of course later.......November and December and January.....we will be bitching about playing in 50 degree weather. One extreme to the other.

 

Well after all the.....flailing around.....today we ended up about right where we started.....at least in my account. I ended the day with a loss of less than......$100.....but technically in the red. I managed to beat the SP500 by 0.13%. It was one of those days with a lot of moving around during the day....but no real result one way or the other. Usually days like this are indicative of LOW VOLUME days......where a bit of action tends to move the markets around.....but in the end NO real impact.

 

SURPRISINGLY....for the week so far.....we are in the green for the SP500. Monday and Wednesday UP by 0.23% and 0.85% respectively......and Tuesday and Thursday down by 0.57% and 0.16% respectively. Tomorrow will settle the week in the green or in the red. At the moment after four days we are at +0.35% for the week. With all the NEGATIVITY being thrown around this week......we are doing better than I thought.

 

I like this view of today.

S&P ends slightly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/futures-inch-lower-ahead-unemployment-104447161.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly lower on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

The three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.

Amazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department's report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.

"Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected," said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.

"It's a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns," Detrick added.

Economically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.

Data released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.

"Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow," Detrick added.

Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 62.22 points, or 0.18%, to 34,752.17, the S&P 500 lost 6.65 points, or 0.15%, to 4,474.05 and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.30 points, or 0.13%, to 15,181.83.

Energy stocks tumbled after crude prices retreated from Wednesday's surge as threats to the Gulf of Mexico from Hurricane Nicholas abated.

Select companies got a boost from the retail sales report.

Apparel company Gap Inc, online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc all gained ground.

Ford Motor Co advanced after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model."

MY COMMENT

Seems right to me. The consumer continues to be severely underestimated by the so called experts.......as does the underlying strength of the economy. I am looking forward to the next round of earnings in a month or so. It will be interesting to see how strong the actual BUSINESS economy is at the moment and heading into year end. After all....that is what REALLY counts.....the actual FUNDAMENTALS.......not, all the various guesses and opinions of all the so called experts that work for the big banks and the various trading houses and hedge funds. Not exactly NEUTRAL observers.

 

Looks like the economy is going to CHUG right along......regardless of the negativity being spread at the moment.

Retailers are gearing up for a huge holiday season

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/16/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"London (CNN Business)The Delta variant continues to be a concern for retailers. But expectations for a merry holiday season remain intact.

What's happening: US retail sales increased last month as consumers continued to dish out on clothing, furniture and groceries. Sales beat economists' expectations, increasing 0.7% in August from the month prior, the Census Bureau said Thursday.
And new forecasts from Deloitte, Bain & Company and Mastercard predict a huge sales boom in the coming months, the most important time of the year for retailers.

Deloitte estimates that holiday sales will increase between 7% and 9% in 2021 as vaccinations help shoppers feel more comfortable venturing out to spend some of the cash they've been hoarding.

"A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's US economic forecaster. "Further, e-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories."

The consulting firm expects online sales to jump between 11% and 15% year-over-year, reaching up to $218 billion.
Mastercard (MA), for its part, sees US retail sales rising 7.4%. While online shopping could rally 7.6%, in-store shopping is expected to increase by 6.6% compared to 2020. Bain & Company is also calling for a 7% sales growth rate in November and December.

"The pandemic has impacted nearly every inch of the retail industry," said Aaron Cheris, the head of Bain & Company's Americas Retail practice. "However, heading into this holiday season, we also see important tailwinds for nominal retail growth, including boosts from inflation, rebounding employment, healthy savings rates and wage growth."

But wait: Supply chains remain badly tangled, causing shipping costs to soar. Some companies worry that empty shelves and shortages of in-demand products could dampen the mood.

"The demand is going to be there," MGA Entertainment CEO Isaac Larian told CNN Business late last month. "What is not going to be there is the product to fill the demand."

Mastercard thinks retailers will try to get around supply chain concerns, as well as persistent difficulties in hiring workers, by offering earlier holiday promotions in stores and online — particularly for electronics and clothing items.

"This holiday season will be defined by early shopping," Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard, said in a statement.
Investor insight: A spending surge would be good news for retail stocks, which shot up earlier this year but have been caught in a holding pattern in recent months. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF is up 45% year-to-date, but has shed 4.4% in the third quarter."

MY COMMENT

FUNNY how the financial media is touting the correction and negativity lately.....yet.....at the same time we see this sort of article.

I hate to say it but my view is those pushing for a correction have an AXE to GRIND......in their trading and positioning. I tend to believe this little article over all the investment banks, traders, Hedge funds ad others with a stake in talking the markets down at the moment.

 

I have ABSOLUTELY NO INTEREST in investing in companies that are TOTALLY controlled by the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship.......yes China. This story is.......as usual......a lesson for those that invest in Chinese companies......but......with this little story the fact that the Chinese government totally controls this and ALL other Chinese business will help to dampen the impact of this COLLAPSE.

China faces a potential Lehman moment. Wall Street is unfazed

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/16/business/wall-street-evergrande-china/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


"New York (CNN Business)The implosion of Lehman Brothers, 13 years ago this week, showed how the collapse of a single entity can send shockwaves around the world.

Echoes from that event are resounding today as a massive property developer on the other side of the world teeters on the brink of default.

The risk is that the collapse of Evergrande, a Chinese real estate company with a staggering $300 billion of debt outstanding, could set off a chain reaction that spreads overseas.

"Some fear an Evergrande meltdown will have systemic risks on par with the impact Lehman Brothers' demise had on the US stock market," Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, wrote in a note to clients Thursday.

Like Lehman in its heyday, Evergrande is massive, suggesting a default would be felt widely. The company has 200,000 employees, raked in more than $110 billion in sales last year and has more than 1,300 developments, according to Reuters.
Wall Street is keeping close tabs on the Evergrande situation, which highlights the extraordinary amount of borrowing Chinese companies and families have taken on over the years. Yet there are no signs that investors think an Evergrande default will infect US markets or the domestic economy.

No contagion, at least so far

For now, investors seem confident that authorities in Beijing would use their vast control over the Chinese economy to limit the damage. And there is no evidence, at least so far, of contagion in US markets.

"I don't think the Evergrande meltdown, and the financial problems of Chinese property companies more broadly, will reverberate back on the US economy or markets," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN.

"We think that the 'China's Lehman moment' narrative is wide of the mark," Simon MacAdam, senior global economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Thursday.

MacAdam said even a "messy collapse" of Evergrande would have "little global impact beyond some market turbulence."

Based in Shenzhen, Chinese property giant Evergrande has more than $300 billion in liabilities and is one of the biggest real estate companies in the nation.

David Kotok, co-founder and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, agrees, dismissing Evergrande as a "Chinese domestic credit problem."

"It does not look as if it has any contagion effects on American companies or American financial markets," Kotok said. "We see no credit spread widening,"

Credit spreads, the difference between corporate bonds and ultra-safe Treasury rates, remain very narrow. That's a sign that investors aren't worried — especially given the Federal Reserve's unprecedented support for the economy and markets. Of course, that can change in a heartbeat.

"I would change my view at once if I saw any contagion or spillover" into the world's biggest economies, Kotok said.
The US Treasury Department declined to comment on the Evergrande situation.

Growth engine to slow

Beyond the market impact, the collapse of Evergrande could affect China's economy, the second-largest in the world after the United States, and a key catalyst for global growth.

Evergrande has already suspended work on some projects in a bid to conserve cash. Given the company's size, that will put pressure on China's real estate market.

"Property development has been a major growth engine for the Chinese economy over the last decade," Guy Lebas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Management, told CNN in an email.

He said the lack of large-scale real estate development could slow China's economy, though there is debate over how productive that growth was in the first place.

"While there may be modest knock-on effects in other economies, I don't expect them to be too large," Lebas said.

'I don't know if China can have a Lehman Moment'

Wall Street's cautious optimism is driven by the fact that Beijing's authoritarian government has enormous influence over what happens in China's economy, financial markets and banking system. Consider Beijing's recent crackdowns on everything from video games and casinos to ride-sharing.

"If it appears that a default(s) may ignite a financial crisis, Chinese authorities would almost certainly forestall this from happening," Zandi of Moody's said.

Kotok pointed out that in China, the government controls the rules of the road, right down to how much credit is extended to various parts of the economy.

"I don't know if China can have a Lehman Moment," Kotok said.

While Yardeni doesn't expect Beijing to save Evergrande, he does see the government injecting enough liquidity to limit the damage.

"Or at least we hope so," he said."

MY COMMENT

YES.....a Lehman moment is probably impossible in China.....thank goodness that this company is under the total domination and control of an authoritarian dictatorship. Actually....it is too bad that we can not invest in North Korean companies. They would be a very nice addition to the Chinese companies that many American investors seem to like.

I really dont have a lot of confidence in the Chinese taking care of this financial issue......they will throw the world under the bus immediately if it becomes necessary. GEE.....why does that remind me of the COVID situation.

 

LOL....that comment seems about right to me oldmanram. You know my view....short term investing or trading is a FOOLS ERRAND. Number one.....ALL the data MASSIVELY shows that it is a losing game. It is just about IMPOSSIBLE to beat the averages long term when speculating and trading. Number two......the short term and trading space in the markets is TOTALLY controlled by the investment banks, Hedge Funds, trading houses. etc, etc. They manipulate the short term financial media and the short term markets. They have the financial power to try to drive their trades the way they wish. What is interesting is that.....even with all their power and influence and money......they STILL rack up plenty of losses and failures.

 

As to the above......and....where your focus should be as an investor.....this little article is the perfect example.

The stock market is afraid again. Here's what that means for your investments

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/17/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

New York (CNN Business)It's been a wobbly week on Wall Street and CNN Business' Fear and Greed Index is flashing "Fear."

The stock market is in a weird place. It has fallen in most of the trading sessions this month, and the Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 39: right in the middle of "fear" territory.

Friday might be yet another day of losses, as the three major indexes opened lower. Around mid-morning, the Dow (INDU) was down 0.4%, or about 150 points, while the S&P 500 (SPX) declined 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) fell 0.7%.
Clearly investors are a bit rattled. Yet looking at the big picture, stocks are still near record highs. The S&P sat just a bit more than 1% below its all-time peak at Thursday's close.

So what's going on?

Investors are in a holding pattern. Many expected the Federal Reserve to be ready to announce a rollback of its emergency stimulus next week. But after a disappointing August jobs report, that seems less likely.

The Fed's two mandates are price stability and maximum employment. And with the shortfall in job growth last month, the latter just isn't a given yet.

Weighing economic data

Meanwhile, inflation also appears to be taking a breather: Consumer price inflation came off its 13-year high in August, according to data released earlier this week.

And while the Delta variant is weighing on job growth, other economic indicators have been doing just fine: Retail sales were better than expected this week, rising rather than falling. Along with the slower increase in prices, these are good signs for consumer spending — which is the backbone of the US economy — and could mean better marks for economic activity in the second half of the year.

Consumer sentiment is improving again after falling off a cliff in August over Delta worries, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan released Friday.

"The steep August falloff in consumer sentiment ended in early September, but the small gain still meant that consumers expected the least favorable economic prospects in more than a decade," said Richard Curtin, chief economist at the Surveys of Consumers.

Another stain on the report: Buying attitudes for durable household goods, or big-ticket household items like refrigerators and air conditioners, dropped to its lowest level since 1980.

There are a lot of moving parts, and with so much in wait-and-see mode, Wall Street is rightly worried — but not overly worried.
It's a lot to take in: The recovery is in a strange spot, people are concerned about what the winter might bring in terms of the pandemic and valuations are high in a stock market that doesn't have a decisive driver right now. But experts say the best thing you can do is to keep your money invested."

MY COMMENT

"The recovery is in a strange spot".........well......what is REALLY strange is this article. Are "investors" really afraid and in a holding pattern.....or.....is it the short term traders pushing this narrative. I am SURE that ALL actual investors have not made any changes at all.....and....that the average person is still contributing to 401K plans and other accounts just like they always do.

The FEAR AND GREED Index.....a total joke. The name alone tells you the whole story.....nothing more than sensationalism.

Meaningless BS. Than the little article goes on to list how many of the indicators are......actually......showing positive indications at the moment.

The REAL clue where this article is coming from and what it is pushing is this quote:

"Investors are in a holding pattern. Many expected the Federal Reserve to be ready to announce a rollback of its emergency stimulus next week. But after a disappointing August jobs report, that seems less likely."

I dont know a single.....regular person investor......that thought the above or even care about the above. This is CLEARLY a reference to the wall street crowd......and ........I SEVERELY DOUBT that most of them "expected" the FED to announce a roll back of the stimulus next week.

BALONEY........but at least they got the message right at the end........"But experts say the best thing you can do is to keep your money invested"."

 

We are seeing the "usual" choppy and erratic open today. Time will tell if RATIONALITY takes hold as the day progresses as we have often seen over the past months.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks drop, extending streak of choppy trading

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-17-2021-221426215.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks fell on Friday as traders continued to digest a slew of mixed economic data and its implications for monetary policy.

The S&P 500 fell, extending losses after a new report showed consumer sentiment missed estimates in early September and held near a decade-low as concerns over inflation lingered. The Dow and Nasdaq also declined.

Friday's session also coincides with the quarterly "quadruple witching" event on Wall Street, wherein individual stock options and futures, and index options and futures, all expire on the same day. The occasion has typically brought additional volume — and often some volatility — especially in the days leading up to it and in the run-up to market close.

Meanwhile, latest set of U.S. economic data out Thursday painted a more upbeat than anticipated picture of the U.S. consumer. August retail sales posted a surprise increase as consumers turned back towards goods spending amid the latest wave of the Delta variant. And while weekly new jobless claims rose in the Labor Department's latest report, the level of new claims still held near its lowest since March 2020.

The data will all factor into the Federal Reserve's latest assessment of the economic backdrop at officials' next monetary policy-setting meeting next week, with investors focusing closely on the Fed's timing to announce plans to begin tapering its pandemic-era asset purchase program.

Still, investors have eyed the latest data with ongoing caution about the outlook going forward, especially given lingering uncertainties around the coronavirus, supply chain challenges and next moves on monetary and fiscal policy.

"I think it's really this tug of war at the moment that's under way, which is to say, there's still good news on the economy. In fact, in the last two days, we've gotten some good regional Fed survey reports and today's retail sales number," Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, told Yahoo Finance on Thursday.

"But at the same time, it's in the context of this overall deceleration of growth we've seen so far in the third quarter [and] worries about the Delta variant. And of course, we are facing prospects and discussions around taxes to fund fiscal stimulus programs and as well as a potential debt ceiling debacle," he added. "So there's a lot of things that are creating cross-currents for investors at the moment, which is creating this environment in which day after day you flip-flop between cyclicals and defensives with no real pattern being elicited by either."

As of Thursday's close, and with two weeks to go in September, the S&P 500 was pacing toward its first monthly decline since January. Though the blue-chip index has still less than 2% from an all-time high, it has traded flat to slightly lower over the past several weeks as traders await next catalysts.

"We've had a lot of back and forth, and I think it's reflective of a market that's been up 20%, a lot has already been priced in," John Lynch, Comerica Wealth Management chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance. "We're entering the quiet period before third-quarter earnings. Even if third-quarter earnings are up 30%, they'll be a third of what earnings did in the second quarter. So investors have a lot to process with that."

He added, however, that equities still have the benefit of a lack of competition in many other areas of the market, especially given current monetary policy posturing.

"If you're thinking about real rates still being negative, M2 or money supply growing twice the rate of GDP, that is a bid for equities in spite of some of the uncertainty," Lynch said.

10:06 a.m. ET: Consumer sentiment increased by a smaller-than-expected margin in September after August's decade-low
Consumer sentiment improved only slightly in early September after reaching the lowest level since 2011 in August, according to the University of Michigan's closely watched monthly survey.

The headline index in the institution's Surveys of Consumers ticked up to 71.0 in the preliminary reading, compared to the 70.3 posted in August. Consensus economists were looking for the index to improve to 72.0 in September, according to Bloomberg data.

Beneath the headline index, a subindex tracking consumers' assessments of current conditions pulled back to 77.1, down from 78.5 in August. However, the subindex tracking expectations rose to 67.1 from 65.1, but remained close to the lowest level in over a year.

Consumers' one-year inflation expectations also ticked up slightly to 4.7% from 4.6% in August.

"The steep August falloff in consumer sentiment ended in early September, but the small gain still meant that consumers expected the least favorable economic prospects in more than a decade," Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers, wrote in a statement. "The decline in assessments of buying conditions for homes, vehicles, and household durables left all three near all-time record lows, with the declines due to spontaneous references to high prices."

9:50 a.m. ET: Stocks are moving beyond the September seasonal pullback: Strategist
September has historically been the worst month for stocks. So far this year, that trend has appeared to be continuing: The S&P 500 is on track to post a slight monthly decline following seven consecutive monthly gains. Still, the index has held onto gains of about 19% so far for the year-to-date.

"You look at the market and it's up so much, you look at valuations and you look at the seasonality of September, and that's what makes you draw the conclusion that we're vulnerable," Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist for iCapital Network, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. "The market has had a pullback of 2-3%. And all of those pullbacks throughout the course of the year have been bought."

"So maybe, given the amount of liquidity that we have in the system and the amount of monetary and now fiscal policy support, maybe that's all we get, and maybe we've already gotten this little bit of seasonal volatility in September," she added.

The main point of contention for markets now comes down to fiscal policy, Amoroso said.

"I think it is the uncertainty around taxes: What's going to happen to capital gains, what's going to happen to corporate taxes, what's going to happen to taxes on foreign earnings," she said. "I don't necessarily think we might see a sharp 10% decline or so. But we might be in this holding pattern for now where stocks really cannot break out to the upside until we know, until the stock market knows what's going to come out of Washington.""

MY COMMENT

YES......the BIG factor is what government is going to do with taxes and who is going to get SKEWERED. Add this on top of the re-opening and everything else that is going on and you have the short term markets.

As to consumer confidence......another useless indicator......at least to me as a long term investor. I have lived through many times in my life where you see this same sort of consumer poll. Usually when consumers are negative if you drill down.......they are negative in general....but when you ask about their specific situation and how they are doing personally.....they are doing just fine. I believe this is the case right now......any consumer poll negativity is "in general" and reflects the day to day media fear mongering and the feeling of the country being out of control.......but....if you get specific.....most people are going to say they are doing just fine.