The Long Term Investor

LOL....."a shopaholic that ran out of funds".....you are talking about my ART budget......LONG GONE for this year.

As to investing......I will have some NEW MONEY to put in the markets in a few months from my 2022 budget. I try to put in about $20,000 each year. Even in retirement it is important to continue with a life-long habit of SAVING and INVESTING if someone can do it. I will probably have to do a bit less this year since we are starting a "minor" kitchen and powder room make over with new counter tops and new back-splash that I was budgeting about $30,000 for....and now.....looks like it will go over budget by about $5000 to $7000.

 

Have a good day...guys.

 

We are doing Quartzite slabs for the back splash and counter tops and island. We have a lot of counter top and backsplash. We were going to do marble but are afraid of the staining and scuffing that is easy to do......on top of the high price. The quartzite gives us the closest look to the marble. AND....invariably....just like a homing pigeon......the material we select is ALWAYS the highest price.

I am like odmanram......at least when I looked an hour or two ago.....I was up nicely....but only about half the SP500.

Yeah definitely NOT good timing Zukodany. At least you are a smart business owner and are prepared to handle that sort of sudden event. Sounds like you are very smart about maintaining your buildings.

 

I am doing about the same....oldmanram. My account is up about 1%......but it is lagging the SP500 today which is at about +1.37%.

Man....you got to do something about your wife's account......it is making us all look bad.

Usually on a day like this I am either with or above the SP500. BUT.....hey....what do I care.....it is STILL a nice gain

 

OK...all packed up for my show......I will leave in about 15 minutes. At least I got to close out the market day before I go.

I was NEARLY all GREEN today. My ONLY red holding was Home Depot with a loss of.....drum roll please......0.01%. I did end up lagging the SP500 today...by 0.36%. BUT.....it was a nice day.....a good little jump up in account value...that probably takes me to within about.......2% to 2.5%.....of being back to an all time account high.

Every time I say this I regret it.......but.....I dont see anything in the way of the markets tomorrow. We might even see another BIG day like today. Lets end the week.....IN STYLE.

 

HERE are the earnings results for my Costco.

Costco Stock Gains On Q4 Earnings Beat, Will Limit Key Item Purchases Amid COVID Disruption

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top...em-purchases-amid-covid-disruption/ar-AAOLNRI

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Costco Wholesale shares edged higher Friday after the big box retailer topped Wall Street forecasts for its fourth quarter earnings but noted it would begin limiting purchases of certain items owing to supply chain issues.


Costco's August quarter sales -- the final period of its fiscal year -- rose 17% from last year to a Street-beating $62.68 billion, while comparable sales rose by a better-than-expected 9.4%, paced by increases in Canada and the United States. Membership fees rose 11.7% to $1.234 billion, Costco said, with total members topping 61.7 million.

The group earned $3.76 per share for the period, up 23.7% from last year and well ahead of the Street consensus forecast, even as gross margins fell 32 basis points to 10.9% thanks to rising COVID and supply chain costs.

Looking into the final months of the calendar year, however, Costco said it needs to plan for product delays linked to both COVID and supply-chain disruptions that are adding to delivery times, as well as the global shortage in semiconductors.

"[Suppliers] have got plenty of merchandise, but there's two- or three-week delays on getting it delivered because there's a limit on short-term changes to trucking and delivery needs," said CFO Richard Galanti. "So planning is crucial ... we're putting some limitations on key items, like bath tissues, roll towels, Kirkland Signature water, high-demand cleaning-related SKUs related to the uptick in Delta-related demand."

Costco shares were marked 1.7% higher in early trading Friday to change hands at $460.40 each, a move that would extend the stock's six-month gain to around 37%.

"We continue to see favorable catalysts in the coming quarters, including a potential membership hike and special dividend," said Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh, who carries an 'outperform' rating with a $500 price target on his "top pick" stock.

"Nearer-term, we expect more of range-bound trade following the strong gains and uncertainty on the margin front," he added."

MY COMMENT

A great company which I HOPE to own for a very long time. The money they make from member fees alone is exceptional. A very LOYAL customer base and a very good place to work.

 

Here is the other company that I own........NIKE.......that reported yesterday.

Nike shares fall as supply chain havoc leads retailer to slash revenue forecast

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/23/nike-nke-q1-2022-earnings.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Nike said that global supply chain congestion is hurting the business more than it previously anticipated.
• The sneaker giant lowered its fiscal 2022 outlook to account for longer transit times, labor shortages and prolonged production shutdowns in Vietnam.
• Nike now expects full-year sales to increase mid-single digits, compared with a prior outlook of low double-digit growth.

Nike shares dropped more than 3% in extended trading Thursday after the sneaker giant said supply chain congestion is hurting its business more than it previously anticipated.

The sneaker giant lowered its fiscal 2022 outlook to account for longer transit times, labor shortages and prolonged production shutdowns in Vietnam.

Nike now expects full-year sales to increase at a mid-single-digit pace, compared with a prior outlook of low double-digit growth. In the fiscal second quarter, it sees sales flat to down low single digits. Analysts had been looking for revenue growth of 12% for the year, as well as a 12% increase for the second quarter, according to Refinitiv data.

Nike’s revised forecast comes in the wake of a mixed first-quarter earnings report. It missed revenue expectations, as demand in North America softened. But the company sold more goods to shoppers at full price, boosting profits.

Here’s how Nike did during its fiscal first quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

• Earnings per share: $1.16 vs. $1.11 expected
• Revenue: $12.25 billion vs. $12.46 billion expected

Over the next few quarters, Nike anticipates its entire business will see short-term inventory shortages, Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend said during a conference call.

Since mid-July, the company has been working through factory shutdowns in Vietnam, where it produces roughly 50% of its footwear and 30% of its apparel. Facilities have been closed as the government tries to tamp down the spread of the Covid-19 virus. About 80% of Nike’s footwear factories in southern Vietnam and roughly half of its apparel factories in the area remain closed, Friend said.

“We’ve already lost 10 weeks of production, and that gap will continue. ... It’s going to take several months to ramp back to full production,” he told analysts.

Once its products are produced, Nike is also running into shipping delays. According to Friend, transit times in North America are double pre-pandemic levels, taking an average of 80 days to move goods from Asia to Nike’s home turf.

Nike said demand worldwide for its shoes and workout apparel remains strong. But with these bubbling inventory issues, near-term performance will be hurt.

Management said fiscal first-quarter results would have been incrementally stronger, were it not for the supply chain snafus. Bottlenecks are resulting in a material lack of supply, leaving some consumers empty-handed.

Nike’s fiscal first-quarter sales climbed to $12.25 billion from $10.59 billion a year earlier but were short of analysts’ expectations of $12.46 billion.

China posted the smallest gain of any of its geographies, climbing 11%. In past quarters, the region had been one of Nike’s biggest revenue drivers.

Revenue in North America rose 15% to $4.88 billion. That was short of the $5.05 billion that analysts polled by FactSet were looking for.

Digital sales for the Nike brand rose 29% year over year. The retailer has been investing in its website and a suite of mobile apps. That has been especially beneficial during the health crisis, when many people have opted to shop from their homes.

“Digital is increasingly becoming a part of everyone’s shopping journey, and we are well positioned to reach our vision of a 40% owned digital business by fiscal 2025,” Friend said.

However, one upside to tightened inventories has been greater profitability on the products that Nike sells, since the company has little incentive to discount. Nike has also been reducing its reliance on wholesale partners that often sell at a markdown.

Net income grew to $1.87 billion, or $1.16 per share, compared with $1.52 billion, or 95 cents per share, a year earlier. That topped analysts’ expectations for $1.11 a share.

Analysts and investors had been expecting sales to take a temporary hit from the drop-off in manufacturing. The lockdowns are also impacting a number of other retailers, ranging from athleisure rival Lululemon to the high-end furniture chain RH.

Wall Street research firm BTIG earlier this month had downgraded Nike’s stock, seeing order cancellations running through at least next spring.

“Over its history, Nike’s stock has been most tightly correlated with sales growth, so with growing evidence that sales will likely stall, we believe Nike’s stock will at best tread water until more clarity is had around its manufacturing issues,” BTIG analyst Camilo Lyon said in a research note.

Nike shares are up about 13% year to date, as of Thursday’s market close, but down about 9% from an all-time high reached in early August. That’s when talk of the supply chain congestion started to pick up.

Nike said it ended the latest quarter with inventories of $6.7 billion, which was about flat from a year earlier, and down slightly from inventories of $6.9 billion in the prior period.

For the balance of this fiscal year, the company said, it sees demand outweighing supply. But it expects to return to more normalized inventory levels in fiscal 2023.

“Over the past 18 months, we’ve demonstrated our ability to manage through turbulence,” Chief Executive Officer John Donahoe said Thursday. “And that’s what we’ll continue to do as we navigate through these current supply chain issues. We’ll focus on what we can control.”"

MY COMMENT

As Zukodany mentioned the stock is....at this moment....down by 6.81% or $10.87. That takes a big chunk out of the 13% year to date gain mentioned in the article above.

This is the price you pay when a BIG company manufactures in Asia and is subject to events and shipping issues. I am NOT concerned as a shareholder. This is a long time holding of mine that has generated a lot of money for me over the years. It is going to take 12-24 months to get their pandemic and economic shutdown "stuff" under control.

I am FULLY satisfied with their numbers....considering the issues they are dealing with. Earnings per share were good and Revenue was also good with just a SLIGHT miss.

The LOWERED forward looking expectations will set the stock up nicely for future earnings as these issues resolve.

 

GEE.....big surprise here.

House passes bill raising debt ceiling and averting shutdown
The bill passed in a party-line vote of 220-211

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/house-passes-bill-raising-debt-ceiling-and-averting-shutdown

MY COMMENT

No need to put up the article....the headline says it all. Posting this to show how RIDICULOUS the article that I posted a page or so above was.........the one FEAR MONGERING how the debt ceiling issue could destroy the economy and the country. There was NEVER any doubt what would happen on this issue.....even though the media has been wringing their hands over it for the past week or so. A PERFECT example of meaningless garbage that should NEVER be considered by actual investors.

 

This little article has it....so right.......especially for long term investors.

The Flaring Fret-O-Meter Is Sweet Music for Stocks

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...o-meter_is_sweet_music_for_stocks_795961.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"After a heartwarming 2021 start, pundits now preach peril once again. Like:

QE is ending! The witches’ stew of COVID brews. Inflation, inflation and stagflation strike. China’s real estate woes threaten a “Lehman moment”--dooming global growth. Tax hike hype and debt ceiling drama dead ahead.

But don’t let all this chatter depress you. For stocks, this unease over well known, pre-priced or flat-out false fears signals a pause in early 2021’s building froth—and points to more bull market ahead. Here is why you should cheer the fear.

In January, I told you sentiment had evolved lightning-quick since March 2020’s bear market bottom—with vaccine victories and election clarity muting most pundits’ paranoias. Forecasts for US stocks were near-uniformly bullish, if only mildly. Euphoria had emerged in faddish market corners. Initial public offerings, especially “blank check” special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), were soaring and soon set records. Investors went gonzo for crypto, as all its ilk spiked spectacularly. Non-fungible tokens (NFTs)—curious digital collectibles—sold mysteriously for big bucks.

Increased optimism was justified. COVID vaccines’ arrival drove re-openings, recharging growth. But always remember investing legend Sir John Templeton’s wise words: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” Back then, euphoria was percolating—signaling we were far later in the bull market than early-cycle evangelists believed.

Now? Expectations of a long-lived boom ahead have ground down to a slow grind of daily fears—new and old alike. What I’ve long labeled the Fret-O-Meter started pinging paranoia.

COVID’s Delta strain slowing growth amid vaccine mandate battles—ping! Looming Chinese defaults—ping! Renewed tax hike chatter—ping! Soaring shipping costs and supply chain delays set to ruin Christmas—ping ping! The Fed talking QE tapering … potential hiking interest rates—ping ping ping!

Signs of slipping sentiment run deep. Global fund managers’ economic growth expectations tumbled from earlier this year, according to Bank of America’s September survey. Only 22% of individual investors are bullish on stocks for the next six months—the lowest reading since July 2020—while nearly 40% are bearish, the American Association of Individual Investors’ latest sentiment poll shows. Consumer confidence has tumbled since June. Less than 40% of US small businesses see economic conditions improving over the year ahead—down from 67% in March.

The shine is also off IPOs and SPACs, as multiple blowups, lawsuits and regulatory worries stunned them into sudden stall—with several Senators now putting SPACs in their crosshairs. Bitcoin? It has given back most of the year’s early surge.

Still, we’re far from panic or even broad pessimism. Brokerage account opening rates, funds’ equity allocation levels, sporadic meme stock bounces and ongoing NFT craziness all keep reflecting a generally optimistic environment. We are still later-stage, but later-stage doesn’t mean end-stage. Moderating sentiment recharges the bull market with extra room to run.

Embrace the moderation. Rising Fret-O-Meter pings are high-octane stock market fuel. Why? Because surprises move markets most. Euphoric sentiment can juice stocks briefly—but eventually it tees up the negative surprises that slam bull markets. The Tech bubble’s bursting in 2000 is the quintessential example of expectations simply exceeding achievable levels, with any negative straw set to break the bull market’s back. That isn’t now.

Today’s fretting means we are far from those bubbly days. It means perking fears are likely and largely pre-priced. Delta’s drag on some industries, like travel and hospitality? Unfortunate, but well known from here to Timbuktu—pre-priced and impacting areas of the stock market that are too small in aggregate to matter much! Supply chain bottlenecks and surging shipping costs? Frustrating, but now very old and widely dispersed news—hence pre-priced, too!

While those issues have legitimate economic impacts, many resurgent fears are overblown—or flat-out false. Tax hikes? Even new, heavily watered down proposals stand little chance of making it through Congress without further dilution—and, as I explained in April, history shows they aren’t a threat to stocks even if they do.

QE taper terror? Pundits get this inside out, upside down, backwards, twisted and flip-flopped. Tapering is not only not bearish—it is beautifully bullish, as I told you in my last column. Chinese debt? Rising defaults have sparked fears for years—even Evergrande’s issues were well known since last September. They lack the surprise power—and the scope—to derail global stocks.

I often say false fears are always, everywhere and forever bullish. Hence: As markets weigh these worries, they tee up positive surprise—or even unconscious relief. It doesn’t mean you need massively touted good news. Anything better than what markets previously weighed will do.

While Templeton’s market cycle maxim is incredibly prescient, the path from pessimism to skepticism, skepticism to optimism and optimism to euphoria isn’t some straight line. It is wiggly—as recent weeks have shown. For now, the Fret-O-Meter is pinging aplenty. Welcome the worry. Cheer the fear and know the renewed worries are your investing friends.

MY COMMENT

EXACTLY......all the issues and fears that are out there right now are a....very positive......indicator for the markets going forward. CELEBRATE the short term drama and fear......I do.

 

LOL.....I tanked the markets today. YES.....a lingering day.....with no real direction. I dont see any real confidence at all today......up or down.

BUT....it is early in the day and there were no doubt a lot of short term sellers.....this morning..... taking advantage of the BIG move up yesterday. We have to consolidate that big move yesterday through the morning today. Once we do that......assuming that it happens.....the afternoon will be free for a positive end to the day today.