The Long Term Investor

And speaking of China.......and......my desire for disclosure of their practices and issues......here is another little article of the dangers of having ANYTHING to do with China.

China Supplants U.S., Fed as Biggest Risk for Emerging Markets

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-supplants-u-fed-biggest-160100158.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Emerging-market investors are about to find out whether there’s more to worry about in China than just the Evergrande debt crisis.

Official and private gauges of Chinese manufacturing are due out Thursday, with expectations they’ll add to evidence of sputtering growth. Concerns that the world’s second-biggest economy is slowing have hobbled the currencies and stocks of developing nations in recent weeks, erasing gains sparked by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s assurance of a calibrated tapering of its stimulus measures.

China has now emerged as their biggest risk. While Evergrande has sparked fears of a property-market slowdown, investors worry even more about the stalling of the broader economy due to virus curbs and spending cuts by consumers. Some are looking to diversify into markets less reliant on China’s growth, such as India and Egypt.

“The risks of contagion and further slowing in the property sector are genuine,” Goldman Sachs Group strategists, led by London-based Kamakshya Trivedi, wrote in a note last week. “However, for the rest of emerging markets, what matters more is the negative impact on Chinese growth, and by extension commodity prices, and whether policy makers step in to offset those downside risks.”

This week’s Chinese data will also act as a barometer of demand for commodities such as oil and copper, which exporting nations from Angola to Peru depend on to drive their own growth.

The Caixin gauge of China’s factory activity showed a contraction for August, the first reading below 50 since April 2020. The official measure of manufacturing has declined for five successive months. Retail sales, industrial production and investment have all slowed, confirming the deceleration.

Meanwhile, Evergrande is developing into a cliffhanger, with another payment due this week as part of $669 million of bond interest that must be paid through the end of this year. Regardless of the immediate outcome, working off the leverage incurred over a slowing property market may be messy and take some time, according to Goldman strategists.

China’s economy will now grow at a slower-than-expected pace in the years through 2023, according to Bank of America Corp. It lowered its forecast for 2022 to 5.3% from a previous estimate of 6.2%.

Some investors are trying look past the Evergrande crisis on growing optimism the Chinese government will step in at some point and prevent wider contagion.

“The extent of the Evergrande fallout is taking center-stage but Chinese state support for its operations as opposed to its listed securities should allay some of the worst-case-scenario fears,” said Hasnain Malik, the Dubai-based head of research at Tellimer Research.

Worries over China come after a respite from the Fed, which said it was getting close to reducing stimulus but kept the door open to extend it as needed. Chair Jerome Powell also stressed that the process wouldn’t offer a direct signal on the timing of lifting rates.

“The message from the Fed was one of a dovish policy and ongoing market support if needed, which is positive for risk assets,” said Todd Schubert, head of fixed-income research at Bank of Singapore Ltd.

Those who believe China’s troubles won’t spell doom for emerging markets was a whole are betting that it leaves room for some smaller nations to start outperforming.

Emerging economies with high real interest rates are better prepared for a world where the U.S. tightens policy and China slows down, according to Tellimer’s Malik. Markets including Egypt, Ghana, Indonesia, Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates look promising, he said.

Bank of Singapore, while still buying BB and BBB names in China’s property sector, is looking for bargains in Indonesia and India in case a contagion-induced selloff materializes.

“Indonesia and India are the largest Asian credits that remain as options for diversification away from China,” Schubert said."

MY COMMENT

YES......I had not thought of this before. BUT....with the DOMINANCE of China in third world and emerging countries around the world......there is a HUGE DANGER to anyone investing in emerging or developing countries. I NEVER invest in these countries anyway.....I ONLY invest in AMERICAN companies that are DOMINANT around the world.....that is enough international exposure for me.

This is going to be a BIG ISSUE as China expands their third world dominance over the next 10-20 years. Many people will find out the hard way that their investment in some third world country was really an investment in China.

 

Stock futures are WAY UP at the moment.......there.......that should tank the markets tomorrow. EXCEPT......I am NOT superstitious.

Actually....futures this far before the open are IRRELEVANT and totally unreliable. BUT....I would rather see them way up than way down.

 

Today......the markets are ALL about....government, government, government,......plus a bit of the FED and the Ten Year Treasury yield.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks trade mixed as investors eye DC votes

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-27-2021-114414957.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
"Stocks were mixed Monday as investors closely monitored developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers rush to try and avert a government shutdown and advance a bevy of new measures.

The S&P 500 fell to give back some gains after the blue-chip index posted a three-day winning streak at the end of last week. The Nasdaq lagged with a drop of more than 0.5% as Treasury yields climbed. The benchmark 10-year yield extended last week's gains to top 1.48%, reaching its highest level since June as optimism over the economic recovery mounted. The Dow added about 0.1%.

Investors are kicking off trading this week following a volatile streak of trading, with the potential default of key Chinese property developer Evergrande and concerns over monetary and fiscal policy front and center. At its lowest closing level last week, the S&P 500 had pulled back just over 4% from its Sept. 2 record closing high. The index, however, has since recouped most of those gains, and traded about 1.8% below its all-time closing high by the end of Friday's session.

This week, investors will be watching developments on the fiscal front especially closely. Lawmakers are racing to vote in the coming days on legislation to fund the government beyond the end of the fiscal year on Thursday and prevent a government shutdown. This will come against a backdrop of ongoing debates around a bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure deal and $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package.

And elsewhere, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, and the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, on the Fed and Treasury's responses to the coronavirus pandemic.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Sunday the chamber would vote Thursday on the bipartisan infrastructure deal, which the Senate passed last month. That would come the same day that lawmakers need to come to an agreement to fund the government to avert a partial shutdown, which would take effect on Friday at 12:01 a.m. ET without congressional action.

The Senate is set to hold a vote Monday on a measure that would extend government funding through early December while also raising the debt limit until the end of next year. This measure, however, is expected to be blocked by Republican lawmakers, who have balked at tying the extension of government funding to raising the debt limit.

"Speaker Pelosi and Senate Schumer announced that they will move forward with legislation that ties an extension of government spending authority to a suspension of the debt limit. Our political economist believes that the likelihood of a government shutdown increases the longer Democrats pursue this course," David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, wrote in a note Monday morning. "However, we find no major consistent reaction of the S&P 500 to government shutdowns since 1980."

9:16 a.m. ET: Durable goods orders jumped by the most since May last month, exceeding estimates
Durable goods orders in the U.S. far exceeded estimates in August, suggesting strong underlying trends in the manufacturing sector even as supply chain challenges weighed on growth.

Orders for durable goods, or manufactured products intended to last at least three years, rose 1.8% in August, according to the Commerce Department's preliminary monthly reading. This came following a 0.5% rise in July, which was upwardly revised from a 0.1% dip reported earlier. Consensus economists were looking for August durable goods orders to rise by 0.7%, according to Bloomberg data.

New orders for non-defense aircraft and parts — or the category that comprises commercial aircraft like Boeing jet — surged by nearly 78% during the month, contributing heavily to the headline increase in orders. Excluding transportation orders, durable goods orders were up just 0.2% for August, coming in below the 0.5% rise expected.

Business spending also showed resilience during the month, with non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rising by a better-than-expected 0.5%. This represented a sixth straight monthly gain. And non-defense capital goods shipments, excluding aircraft, rose by 0.7% to top the 0.5% increase expected, with this measure getting factored into calculations of GDP."

MY COMMENT

NOTHING we can do as investors when.....government.....dominates the news. You just have to sit and get through it.

NOW....the FED.....yeah they are CONSTANTLY talking and meeting. It is just RELENTLESS. I so wish for the old days when you NEVER heard anything from or about the FED.

At least the report on DURABLE ORDERS was very positive. That is the ONE item of news today that might.......actually......have some impact on the economy.....or....be an indicator of the economy. Of course.....as usual.....no one will pay attention to or care about this data.

 

At the moment we have a very.....mixed....market. The DOW is up over 200 points, but the SP500 and especially the NASDAQ are negative. There looks to be a pretty good chance that at some point the SP500 will turn positive.......but......the NASDAQ is going to have to fight its way back from about a 1% loss at the moment.

So as usual a......TENUOUS......start to the day. Well.....at least we are used to this sort of ERRATIC open over the past six months or so. AND....at least we have seen that often, the open, has no relationship to the close on these sorts of days.

Now.....as to the NASDAQ......of course as usual over the past six months.....any time interest rates pop up the NASDAQ gets hit. The TYPICAL talking point is that the BIG TECH stocks are hurt by rising interest rates. Of course the markets end to BLINDLY FOLLOW this BS. AND....I DO call BS on this story-line. There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON that big tech companies would be MORE sensitive to higher short term daily rate fluctuations in the ten year rate. These companies are SUPREMELY funded and ALL of the big tech companies have HUGE piles of cash and cash flow. These companies could operate with ZERO financing if they wished. I dont see.......ANY......RATIONAL reason for the media line that the big tech companies are so interest rate sensitive......ESPECIALLY.....to the random daily fluctuations of the ten year treasury. As to discounting future earnings and value.....again....BS. This argument SHOULD apply across ALL stocks. As to higher rates causing investors to put money in other investments.....BS......EVEN at 1.5% the ten year treasury is at the low end of the scale over the past 100 years. PLUS......I dont see ANY big tech investors leaving these stocks for the Ten Year Treasury. ALL of this stuff is just.....BS.

My view....the NASDAQ drop today reflects simply....short term trading moves by the MONOLITHIC professional traders. The retail investor.......that in my opinion are the GUTS of the big tech holdings......could not care less about any of this interest rate BS.

SO.......as usual.....a typical news driven short term market day. And.....I am being very liberal with my use of the word......."news". As a long term investor.....as usual.....you just ignore it and move on by doing nothing.

 

I......obviously....see deflation as much more of a potential issue than inflation.

Chicago Fed’s Evans says he’s more worried about too little inflation than too much

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/f...ng-enough-inflation-11632744076?siteid=yhoof2

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans, a leading dove at the central bank, said Monday that he’s still worried the U.S. economy isn’t going to generate enough inflation in future years.

“I’m more uneasy about us not generating enough inflation in 2023 and 2024 than the possibility that we will be living with too much,” Evans said, in a speech to the National Association for Business Economics.

The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the personal-consumption expenditure index, was running at a 4.2% annual rate in July.

Evans, a voting member of the Fed’s interest-rate committee this year, noted that the Fed’s new policy framework aims for 2% inflation and will allow for periods of overshooting. It is designed to get the public to expect that inflation will average 2% over the long term.

Evans said he doesn’t think the recent spike of inflation satisfies this new criterion.

Economists viewed the Fed as shifting to a more hawkish stance at monetary-policy makers’ meeting last week, with the central bankers signaling they will start tapering asset purchases in November and penciling in the first rate hike for next year.

Evans said that it was likely that the tapering would start soon but added that decisions about the path of interest rates “seem much less clear to me.”

Evans seemed to come out against such a quick tightening, warning that the Fed shouldn’t try to engineer “a quick, deliberate retreat to 2%.”

In remarks to reporters after his speech, Evans said he expects the Fed to hike its benchmark policy rate only once in 2023 followed by a very gentle incline.

He observed that financial markets SPX, -0.28% don’t seem to expect higher inflation in future years. “A 10-year nominal Treasury rate in the range we’ve seen recently simply can’t have a whole lot of expectations of long-run inflation built into it,” he said.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.487% has been moving higher since the Fed meeting last week but remains well below the 1.75% rate seen in early April.

Evans told reporters that he expects the 10-year yield to move higher, calling it a “good thing.”

“We looking at a very strong economy — except for labor shortages — and we’re looking for those to work their way out,” Evans said.

To convince investors that the Fed is serious about keeping inflation near its target, Evans suggested that the Fed should consider formally aiming for inflation “close to, but above, 2%.”

Many economists have been pressing for the central bank to raise its inflation target above the 2% level.

Evans is now the longest serving regional Fed president after the abrupt, earlier-than-expected retirement of Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren announced Monday amid questions about his stock trading."

MY COMMENT

Agree completely. Over the past 31 years the PRIMARY economic issue around the world has been DEFLATION. Japan has been stuck in a deflationary depression since the 1990's. The EU and other countries were in a HUGE deflation problem following the 2008/2009 near economic collapse......and have STILL not resolved the issues that existed back than. Considering ALL of our various issues and now trying to recover from the economic closure....the USA has potentially BIG deflationary issues going forward.

I am also in the camp that.......it will be a good thing.....to see interest rates RISE up to more normal levels.

 

Today....was a WASTE for me....other than moving the markets forward one day more toward the end of the year. I was....as expected....in the RED. I had a single UP stock today.....Home Depot. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.70%.

ONWARD and UPWARD.

 

With all the focus on government, politics, and the FED....I dont have a lot of confidence for the markets this week. Most of this stuff is the typical TEMPEST IN A TEAPOT. It is likely that in the end NOTHING will happen other than perhaps a kicking forward of the debt limit. But....the markets cant help but get caught up in this sort of DRAMA. AND......the short term traders love it.

Lets hope that the power and strength of the markets breaks through all the political BS and proves me wrong.

 

I have been in your world for a long time....oldmanram. Ever since the internet allowed me to research and see how to do ANY job......I have basically supervised....and.....often pointed out how to do something any time we had some contractor or worker in the house to do something.

It is STILL cheaper paying someone to do the job. By the time I bought all the right tools, and materials, and screwed it up.....it is just cheaper to pay someone else and supervise. Thanks to YouTube I am much better at home repair and construction than I used to be.......but I dont enjoy doing it.

My one job that I do myself and enjoy......sheet-rock repair. I have done it for 25+ years and have all the various tools for different textures, and taping.

 

SO....is this really what we have come to as investors?

Meet the day-trading hamster that is outperforming Warren Buffett, Cathie Wood, and the S&P 500

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-day-trading-hamster-outperforming-181043721.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Mr. Goxx is a trader that is outperforming some of the biggest names in finance. He is also...a hamster.

The rodent's trading streams on a Twitch channel. His nearly 20% returns since he started trading this June are currently outpacing the S&P 500, Cathie Wood, and Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, according to crypto new site Protos.

When Mr. Goxx enters the so-called Goxx Capital office (a small box adjoined to his regular cage), a Twitch stream begins. An alert then goes out on his Twitter and Reddit accounts, notifying his audience. Although he may leave immediately, or sit still, sometimes inspiration strikes.

Mr. Goxx's office is outfitted with a wheel and two tunnels that enable his trading. The wheel, aptly named the wheel of intention, rotates through a set of about 30 cryptocurrencies, one of which gets "selected" after he hops off.

When Mr. Goxx gets off the wheel, he can go through either of the two tunnels in his office. One is labeled "buy" and the other, "sell." Depending on whichever tunnel he traverses, a buy or sell order automatically takes place on an online crypto exchange using real money.

A box in the upper right corner of the Twitch stream keeps track of Mr. Goxx’s recent trades. A box at the bottom shows his account value and his returns.

Despite Mr. Goxx’s recent stellar performance, his owner, a 30-something lecturer and prototyping specialist in Germany, told the BBC that the project started as a hobby during the pandemic. The owner, who wanted to remain anonymous, worked with his best friend since college to put together the pet rodent’s setup.

The pair emphasized to the BBC that Mr. Goxx’s streams are meant for entertainment purposes, and not as financial advice. A small box at the bottom of every stream states that, “Mr. Goxx is not a certified or licensed trader.”"

MY COMMENT

It is also what we have come to with the financial media.

OK.....my secret is out.......WXYZ is really a stock investing GERBIL. As his owner I do all the typing....but he decides and makes all the investing moves.

ACTUALLY......I have known many investors with systems that did not make this much sense over my lifetime.

 

No wonder the HAMSTERS are beating human investors.

Th level of SILLINESS that I see today and many days with the TV and print financial media.....and.....than by investors that pick up......and repeat...... the same "stuff" is just amazing.

We ARE going to be in a bad time for investors......short term.....as long as the politicians and government are playing their little games with the debt limit and government funding and their tax and spend bills. Those people dont care one bit about the short term impact of their little DRAMA. AND.....neither should the typical retail investor. This stuff is all political theater......performance art. MEANINGLESS.

The ABOVE is the REAL and OBVIOUS reason for the drop in stocks over the past couple of days.....and....probably for the rest of this week and perhaps into the next week or two. TALK of rotations to this or that.....or the rising Ten Year yield......or etc, etc, etc.....are just BALONEY.

There is ONE simple reason for the rise in the Ten Year yield......the games that are going on with the debt ceiling and government funding. The......stupid.....talk of a government default and brinkmanship with government funding is the.......REAL.....reason that the Ten Year yield is going up right now. The traders are going to......also..... ride this and push the yields up for their short term trading profits. Of course at some point.....perhaps 1.70% or 1.80%.....somewhere in that neighborhood.....the short trades will come in and knock the rates back down. The media line that I hear today that INFLATION is causing the rise in yields is just plain DUMB.

As to stocks......yes they are going to go down or at best be erratic with all the focus on the politics and government this week and next. That brings me to the ABSOLUTE most STUPID thing that I constantly hear in the media today. The line that:

"The BIG TECH companies are going down because of the rise in interest rates."

Now that might be somewhat true as a self-fulfilling prophesy" if enough investors believe this BS. BUT....I dont think so. I dont believe in the slightest that the average retail investor is running out there and selling Amazon, or Google, or Nike, etc, etc. This REFRAIN that somehow the big stocks are linked to the Ten Year Yield is simply FANTASY.......DELUSIONAL FANTASY.

What we are seeing is a TYPICAL media driven drop.....as everyone gets into a HISSY-FIT over NOTHING. We all know that the government is going to get funded and eventually after all the little games the debt ceiling will be taken care of.

Lets look at what is being said with LOGIC and REASON.......yes I know not something that is done anymore. In the OLD DAYS of investing...back about the mid 1990's or before......you had certain companies that were considered the gold standard of AMERICAN BUSINESS......GE, Phillip Morris, Colgate, Proctor & Gamble, and others. Back than when investors tended to ACTUALLY have a brain.....these stock.......being the largest and most dominant American companies......were considered the absolute best stocks to hold in a downturn. In a down market investors RUSHED to these stocks for safety.

Well today....those stocks are not the best of class anymore.......NOW......the BIG, DOMINANT, GUTS of the economy stocks are Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nike, Costco, etc, etc, etc. These companies are NOT young companies.....they are the behemoths of the economy and American business. There are EXACTLY the sort of companies you would WANT to hold in any down market event......short or long term.....the most successful, PROVEN, companies in the world. ALL of these companies have been around for decades and are money making machines......they are the SAFEST companies in the world for DOMINANCE and STAYING POWER. Back in the OLD DAYS investors knew.....by logic and reason.....that owning the absolute best of the best was SAFETY. It is ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS to believe that they are somehow ULTRA sensitive to interest rates....compared to the rest of the business universe.

This week is the perfect example of MASS MEDIA DELUSION. Half or more of all the "experts" you see on TV and ESPECIALLY writing articles in the financial media have NEVER invested or lived through anything other than the greatest BULL MARKET in history. They have ZERO knowledge or experience.

SO........some times you just have to mentally tune out a week or two. This is one of those times. You just take what the markets give you.......good or bad.....and move on having DONE NOTHING in response. A WASTE of a perfectly good week....but part of the reality of being an ACTUAL investor.

 

What I am really EXCITED about at the moment is seeing what the Social Security cost of living raise will be. It should come out in about two weeks. SCREW the markets....I just want to see that big cost of living raise. BIG or small.....but especially big......the annual cost of living raises COMPOUND over time to REAL MONEY for those on Social Security.

 

As usual....beyond typical short term insanity....the future is BRIGHT of investors.

What Pundits’ PMI Pessimism Says About Stocks
It suggests to us the bull market is on fine footing.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/what-pundits-pmi-pessimism-says-about-stocks

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"“The September PMI data will add to worries that the UK economy is heading towards a bout of ‘stagflation.’” Across the English Channel, pundits bemoaned that “the Delta variant of coronavirus hit demand and supply-chain constraints pushed input costs to a more than two-decade high.”[ii] Japan’s results allegedly “underscor[ed] the protracted impact of the coronavirus pandemic,” while America’s showed “persistent supply-chain problems hit activity.”[iii] Reading those takes on September’s flash purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs), you might think these business surveys point to contraction in many parts of the developed world. But if so, you would be wrong. Why the dour reaction, and what should investors make of it? Here we put pundits’ latest PMI pronouncements into perspective.

September’s flash PMIs did broadly tick down from August. But all remain well above 50, signaling expansion—except Japan, which hasn’t posted an expansionary reading since April (and, before that, January 2020). So for the US, UK, eurozone, Germany and France, September’s downticks don’t imply contraction—they just suggest growth wasn’t quite as broad-based as last month’s. (Exhibit 1)

Exhibit 1: Major Economy PMIs

Source: FactSet and IHS Markit, as of 9/23/2021. Flash PMIs are preliminary estimates based on 85% – 90% of responses.

Services activity—the lion’s share of developed world GDP—saw the biggest drops in the eurozone, leading composite levels’ declines. But this simply follows the US’s path a month prior. America reopened first from lockdowns among western nations, enjoyed the post-lockdown surge in economic activity first, and also saw that initial burst fade first. That pop, which stemmed from unleashing pent-up demand in late spring and early summer, always appeared unlikely to last. Once people got the initial rush back to shops and restaurants out of their system, they would logically return to a slower pace of life. We think this is the chief force behind the recent PMI downticks. Declines from very high levels earlier shouldn’t shock.

Manufacturing seemingly held up a bit better, due partly to lengthening supplier delivery times. Those are normally viewed positively as a demand indicator, as it means producers can’t keep up with incoming orders. That is the case now, but there are also severe shortages hampering production, which is a headache. Even stripping that skew out, though, results were still good. Manufacturing output subindex levels were in the low 50s (save Japan’s at 48.1).[iv] In other words, despite supply constraints clearly weighing on factories, output is still expanding, which suggests the problem remains surmountable.

Demand is strong, too, although that is less of a positive signal than it would otherwise be. Ordinarily we would look now to new orders as the forward-looking component of PMIs, but for the moment, we don’t think they have much predictive power, if any. In theory, today’s new orders are tomorrow’s production, but supply shortages throw a big monkey wrench in that.

For investors, we think pundits’ negative response to fine PMI readings is a sign of sentiment, not fundamentals. PMIs are some of the most widely watched reports out there. Nowadays, so are supply-chain issues, like the much publicized port backups and semiconductor shortages we read about every day as COVID outbreaks and lockdowns plague key global hubs. Ditto for China’s electricity shortage and rationing. Global markets discount such widely available information—and well-known problems—in real time. In our view, stocks’ direction depends on how reality develops against those expectations, not the generally backward-looking news flow itself.

Prevailing pessimism sets a low bar to clear. When the economy’s actual path isn’t as bad as feared, stocks typically benefit. Weaker growth needn’t be an impediment. In our view, over the 3 to 30 month time frame markets generally weigh, bottlenecks will likely prove passing—ergo economic weakness and price pressures stemming from them, too. We don’t think they materially shift the global economy’s longer-term outlook. Besides, slower growth was always likely post-reopening, a baseline we think stocks have long since incorporated. Supply disruptions this year have added another wrinkle. But they probably aren’t the cause of an economic downturn markets didn’t anticipate."

MY COMMENT

We CONSTANTLY look for DRAMA in the investing media. DRAMA drives ratings and ratings mean more money.

Now for ACTUAL investors....DRAMA.....is a waste of time, it DOES NOT mean more money. It means bad investing behavior that will impact and destroy returns over the long term.

SO......look for the positive....even in the negative data and numbers and be CONFIDENT in the future.....especially....the long term future.

 

YOU KNOW.......sooner or later.....probably later.....we are going to end up in a BEAR MARKET. When does not matter. It could be in a year or two...it could be a lot longer....it could start tomorrow. We will see stocks go down by 20-35% and linger in that range for months if not years. History tell us this is true. It is SIMPLY part of the NORMAL market process.

When that happens.........NOTHING will change in how and what I invest in. There will be NO market timing......I will simply take the short term hit and hold through it all. I reserve the right to BITCH about it on here.....however.