duckleberry.fin "So WXYZ has been posting on forums since 1995. What is the over/under on how many ellipses used on his aggregate posts?" LOL we are thinking the same......I swear as I was doing that post I thought of that exact thing.......and.....about Emmett. He likes to point out my use of the ellipses. Actually I am NOT using them as ellipses.......I am trying to make my posting read like it might in a conversation....with pauses and emphasis in the language of the participants. That is the reason for the "pauses" (ellipses) and the voice inflection (bold or all caps). Just my long time posting style for emphasis.
Oh yeah....the markets.....trying to go down. Dont care. We are seeing the typical recent open and who knows what will happen today. We continue in the current....GOVERNMENT HELL LOOP. So.....I will mostly ignore the markets and talk about short term events, economic data,....anything....that happens to catch my eye in my daily investment reading. In other words.......my typical posting.
OK....we are now in October. Could There Be An October Crash? https://lplresearch.com/2021/09/30/could-there-be-an-october-crash/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” Mark Twain Well, it was bound to end eventually, but the S&P 500 Index will finish September in the red, ending an incredible seven month win streak. As we noted last month, these long win streaks actually tend to be quite bullish for future returns, with the S&P 500 higher six months later 13 out of 14 times. Yes, stocks were down some in September, but this still bodes well for the near-term. View enlarged chart. Speaking of the near term, here comes October. As Marc Twain explained many years ago, October has long been a source of anxiety for stock investors. “October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year. 1929, 1987, and 2008 all come to mind when we think about this month,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.” As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, since 1950, October ranks as the 7th best month, while the past 10 and 20 years it ranks as the 4th best month. In a post-election year it comes in 5th. So October clearly isn’t one of the best months of the year, but by no means is it the worst either. View enlarged chart. Now, let’s be very clear though, October is known for volatility. No month has seen more 1% moves (up or down) than October, with some of the largest 1-day moves (both up and down) taking place this month. Heck, the S&P 500 hasn’t had a 5% pullback all year (the average year sees about three) and the last one was nearly a full year ago, one of the longest such streaks ever. Not to mention the S&P 500 has now gone an incredible 317 trading days in a row above its 200-day moving average, one of the longest streaks ever. What we are getting at is a 5-7% pullback could potentially come at any time given we haven’t had one in so long. View enlarged chart. Here are some other interesting statistics to think about regarding the S&P 500 in October. It has been 21 years (2000) since October didn’t close at least up or down 1%. Several percent moves up or down are quite common for this month in other words. For six years in a row October has alternated between higher and lower. Given 2020 it was in the red, it could be time for a bounce in 2021. (More on this below) The last two times the S&P 500 was up more than 15% year-to-date heading into October, stocks gained each time (2013 and 2019). The author’s birthday is on October 28, one of the historically most bullish days of the year. Coincidence? It turns out stocks don’t like politics much. The S&P 500 performs much better in odd numbered years than even years. Remember, even numbered years have elections and midterms in November. Some pre-election jitters makes sense to us, which could bode well for 2021. View enlarged chart. Don’t forget the fourth quarter is historically the best for stocks, with the third quarter the worst. Stocks rise 3.8% on average during the fourth quarter, but the past seven times the S&P 500 was up 15% year-to-date heading into the home stretch of the year, the fourth quarter was higher every single time, up a very impressive 5.8%. In other words, should there be any October scares, investors may want to use the weakness as an opportunity to add to core positions." " MY COMMENT I dont invest by superstition and I dont ascribe characteristics to certain months. I prefer to focus on the FUNDAMENTALS and what is going on with business and the economy....NOT....the month of the year. SO.....why is stuff happening now? OBVIOUSLY....the government hell loop...we are in at the moment and the re-opening from the first ever......government shutdown of the AMERICAN economy. PLUS......investors and people are tired, worn out and exhausted by EVERYTHING. It is just one of those RANDOM times when the markets need to pause and than regroup. We need to consolidate the massive gains we have had so far before we move forward. The next market event which will be CRITICAL and will actually control how we end the year.......will be EARNINGS in a month or so.
HERE is the economic data of the day that no one will care about. (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) U.S. manufacturing expands further in September; shortages, prices rising-ISM https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-manufacturing-expands-further-september-140502608.html "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing activity picked up further in September, but factories experienced longer delays getting raw materials delivered and paid higher prices for inputs. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Friday its index of national factory activity increased to a reading of 61.1 last month from 59.9 in August. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 12% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index falling to 59.6. Some of the surprise rise in the ISM index, however, was due to a jump in the survey's measure of supplier deliveries to a reading of 73.4 last month from 69.5 in August. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, but a lengthening in suppliers' delivery times is normally associated with a strong economy and increased customer demand, which would be a positive contribution to the ISM index. But in this case slower supplier deliveries indicate persistent supply shortages related to the COVID-19 pandemic. That was underscored by a rebound in the survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers to a reading of 81.2 from an eight-month low of 79.4 in August. The Federal Reserve last week raised its projection for its key inflation measure to 3.7% this year. That was up from a median of 3.0% projected back in June. The U.S. central bank has a flexible 2% inflation target. Aside from the technical lift from the supplier deliveries measure, manufacturing is strong. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index held at a reading of 66.7 last month. Manufacturing is being underpinned by businesses desperate to rebuild stocks after inventories were depleted in the first half of the year. The survey's measure of customer inventories remained in contraction territory in September. A gauge of factory employment rebounded last month after falling in August to its lowest level since November. That suggests manufacturing payrolls growth likely picked up in September after slowing in the prior month. The Labor Department is scheduled to issue its closely watched employment report next Friday." AND U.S. consumer spending beats expectations; inflation still hot https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-consumer-spending-beat-expectations-124637308.html "WASHINGTON(Reuters) -U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in August, but consumption was weaker than initially thought in the prior month, keeping intact expectations that economic growth slowed in the third quarter amid a resurgence in COVID-19 infections. The report from the Commerce Department on Friday also showed inflation remaining hot in August, though price pressures have likely peaked. The Federal Reserve last week raised its inflation projections for this year and said it would likely begin reducing its monthly bond purchases as soon as November. "Inflation is still hot but it is no longer red hot, and it probably won't grow any hotter unless consumers clear the store shelves again like they did during the economy's reopening at the start of the summer," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rebounded 0.8% in August. Data for July was revised down to show spending dipping 0.1% instead of gaining 0.3% as previously reported. Consumption was boosted by a 1.2% rise in purchases of goods, reflecting increases in spending on food and household supplies as well as recreational goods, which offset a drop in motor vehicle outlays. A global shortage of semiconductors is undercutting the production of automobiles, hurting sales. Goods spending fell 2.1% in July. Spending on services rose 0.6% in August, supported by housing, utilities and health care. That followed a 1.1% increase in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending increasing 0.6% in August. Inflation maintained its upward trend in August. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, climbed 0.3% after increasing by the same margin in July. In the 12 months through August, the so-called core PCE price index increased 3.6%, matching July's gain. The core PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure for its flexible 2% target. The Fed last week upgraded its core PCE inflation projection for this year to 3.7% from 3.0% back in June. The central bank signaled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Thursday that he anticipated some relief from high inflation in the months ahead. U.S. stocks opened higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were mixed. SLOWING GROWTH Though spending is shifting back to services from goods, the flare up in coronavirus cases in the summer, driven by the Delta variant, crimped demand for air travel and hotel accommodation as well as sales at restaurants and bars. Services account for the bulk of consumer spending. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose 0.4% in August. The so-called real consumer spending dropped 0.5% in July, revised down from the previously reported 0.1% dip. That fits in expectations for a sharp moderation in consumer spending in the third quarter after it grew at a robust 12.0% annualized rate in the April-June quarter, accounting for much of the economy's 6.7% growth pace. The level of gross domestic product is now above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019. Growth estimates for the third quarter are below a 5.0% rate. Overall, the economy remains supported by record corporate profits. Households accumulated at least $2.5 trillion in excess savings during the pandemic. Growth is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter, in part driven by inventory accumulation. Consumer spending is expected to regain steam for the remainder of the year. Infections are trending down, which is already leading to a rise in demand for travel and other high-contact services. Personal income gained 0.1% in August after rising 1.1% in July. An increase in Child Tax Credit payments from the government was offset by decreases in unemployment insurance checks related to the pandemic. Wages continued to rise as companies compete for scarce workers, increasing 0.5% in August. Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation edged up 0.1%. The saving rate fell to a still-high 9.4% from 10.1% in July. "Households still have plenty left in the tank given rising employment and wages, soaring net worth and massive excess savings," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. "However, rising prices are eating into spending power, compounding the ongoing lack of supply."" MY COMMENT The ECONOMY is still supremely screwed up......nowhere near recovering from the shutdown. The labor markets are massively distorted......manufacturing is a big mess due to supply chains, shipping and materials issues. We are ONLY at the very start of anything normalizing.....even after the past 6-12 months of trying to re-open. ACTUALLY.....I think it is a good thing that we are seeing some inflation in about the 3.6% annual rate range. ANYTHING up to about 4% is NORMAL and HEALTHY inflation.....ESPECIALLY....for a SICK economy that is having real STRUGGLES to get back to normal. I would much rather see this level of inflation that the opposite. With all the economic issues we are seeing........it would be very easy for the economy to tip into a RECESSION........or worse.......STAGFLATION. I dont think the above is going to happen......since we are moving forward and stocks (business) is making money and LURCHING forward. After all......NONE of the big companies closed down at all. Where the issues are piling up continues to be the HUGE HIT that small business took......plus......the POTENTIAL impact of all the TAX proposals being floated on small business and the investors that FUND the economy with their capital. ALL in all......it just is what it is. We are just going to have to LIVE our way though it. Sooner or later we will tip over beyond this re-opening drama and turmoil and the economy will start to boom. It just takes time....and....we have to avoid panicking and screwing it all up while we wait to get there.
I see......as expected....that the averages are now negative for the day. That does not mean we will end the day that way. It will be a SURPRISE. The good news...there is nothing going on that is any different than a few weeks ago......other than you know what (the loop). NOTHING has changed in terms of business or the lives of normal/regular people. We are in one of those little periods of weakness......due to short term events......that have NO REAL connection to the real world of business or investing. BUT.......where we go from here.....who knows. HALF or more of investing and the economy is PSYCHOLOGICAL.......probably even more at the current time. Life in the modern world.
OMG.....are we in a correction? NOPE. The SP500 peaked on September 2, 2021 at about 4536. We are now at about 4301. We have seen a loss of 5.18% over the weeks since September 2 to now. Using the actual definition of a correction......a drop of 10% or more......we are NOT in a correction. Even with ALL that we have gone through over the past month.....most of it SELF IMPOSED by our short term PANIC/MANIA and focus on irrelevant "stuff".....(typical).......we are STILL not near a correction. NOW....will one happen as we move forward? Will the market losses continue? Who knows. This is ALL RANDOM short term "STUFF". Much of it has NO connection to REALITY....at least reality in the actual business world and the day to day life of regular people. SO..... I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
you still holding this, boss? Honeywell to increase annual dividend to $3.92 vs. $3.72 starting in Q4 Today 11:01 AM ET (MarketWatch)HON) said Friday it is raising its annual cash dividend to $3.92 from $3.72 previously. The increase will start with the fourth-quarter dividend, which climbs to 98 cents a share, and will be payable Dec. 3 to shareholders of record as of Nov. 12. Shares were slightly higher Friday and are flat in the year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained about 15%. -Ciara Linnane (END) Dow Jones Newswires October 01, 2021 11:01 ET (15:01 GMT) Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
YEP......my PORTFOLIO MODEL is exactly the same as the last time I posted it. A bit more money for the dividend....I will take it. Markets generally GREEN now......YEA. Lets end the week.....start the month.....with a nice GREEN day.
AS USUAL I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 55% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 45% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 10 stock portfolio. At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Honeywell Nike Microsoft Proctor & Gamble Nvidia MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (71). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my ten stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis. #7122
I don't particularly care, but our portfolio is inching its way back to even. Distributions never wavered. I have no interest in selling anything so this was a non-event. I did pick up a little bit of an alternative financing company at a great price but it is such a small change, as to be irrelevant. It was literally just a few hundred shares to round off our share count to an even number.
My oh my. Everything in my portfolio has had a pretty sizeable pullback from ATH. Waiting to see how the rest of the year pans out. Patiently waiting and invested for the long haul.
WELL....we ended the week with a nice GREEN day for the markets......and for my account. I got beat by the SP500 by 0.26%....but I dont care......I am happy to just end today nicely in the GREEN.
Here is the good and the bad news for the week. The good news is that the gains year to date are STILL very good for only 10 months. The bad news.....this week SUCKED.....but we all knew that and we all know why. DOW year to date +12.15% DOW for the week (-1.36%) SP500 year to date +16.00% SP500 for the week (-2.21%) NASDAQ 100 year to date +14.77% NASDAQ 100 for the week (-3.51%) NASDAQ year to date +13.02% NASDAQ for the week (-3.20%) RUSSELL year to date +13.51% RUSSELL for the week (-0.29%) As usual.....ONWARD AND UPWARD.....nice to have this week over and in the books. We can now move on to a more productive week. The American public and investors are getting used to the...... GOVERNMENT HELL LOOP....... and it will soon lose any power to impact the markets. We have the funding out of the way. As to the rest of the "stuff".....let the government flail around.......who cares. I say "who cares" because it appears likely that it is IMPLODING....and "if".....BIG "IF"....anything passes it will be a shadow of what we started with. BEST CASE......they simply pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill to save face and the rest just gets put on hold.
As I said above much of investing and results in investing....good or bad....is PSYCHOLOGY. I like the lessons in this little article. Dangerous Feelings https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/dangerous-feelings/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "“I sat down at my fancy desk on the edge of my chair waiting for the market to open, ready to have another $50,000 day, and thinking life couldn’t get any better than this. This time, I was right. It didn’t.” – Investor Jim Paul describing the moment he went from cocky and overconfident to broke and unemployed. Success has a nasty tendency to increase confidence more than ability. The longer it lasts, and the more it was tied to some degree of serendipity, the truer that becomes. It’s why getting rich and staying rich are different skills. And why most competitive advantages have a shelf life. Jason Zweig put it: “Being right is the enemy of staying right because it leads you to forget the way the world works.” It is of course possible to indefinitely maintain whatever skills brought you initial success. Lots of people and a handful of businesses have done it. But when success is maintained for a long period the greatest skill often isn’t technical, or even specific to your trade. It’s identifying and resisting a few dangerous feelings that can nuzzle their way in after you’ve achieved any level of success. A few of the big ones: 1. The decline of paranoia that made you successful to begin with. A common irony goes like this: Paranoia leads to success because it keeps you on your toes. But paranoia is stressful, so you abandon it quickly once you achieve success. Now you’ve abandoned what made you successful and you begin to decline – which is even more stressful. It happens in business, investing, careers, relationships – all over the place. Michael Moritz of Sequoia was once asked how his investment firm has thrived for 40 years. “We’ve always been afraid of going out of business,” was his answer. It’s a rare response in a world where most successful people step back, take stock of all they’ve achieved, and assume they can not only breathe a sigh of relief but that their skills will run on autopilot. A dangerous situation is when your goals (achieving enough success to relax) counter your skills (focus, paranoia, persistence). It hits you when you feel like past hard work entitles you to a break without realizing the cost of that break, however much it might be necessary and deserved. It’s part of why people who quit while they’re ahead are so admirable – it’s often not so much that they gave up, but that they’re aware of what made them successful and when that trait begins to wane. 2. Finding other peoples’ flaws more than you look for your own improvements. A sad twist to Orville and Wilbur Wrights’ life is that they didn’t make much money from their invention. They were nearly irrelevant as soon as the airplane caught on. Part of the reason the Wrights fell behind so quickly was that while competitors spent their time designing better planes the Wrights spent their time suing people for patent infringement. Chasing competitors through court became an obsession. At one point in 1916 Orville demanded that every airplane produced anywhere in the world pay him a $10,000 royalty, high enough that no manufacturer could afford it – which was the point. Competitors, particularly those in France and Germany, ignored the demand and the Wrights spun their wheels in court for years while competitors spent their time designing better planes. By the time the patent wars were over, the Wrights’ flyer was obsolete. A version of this happens when you see an investor spending all day on Twitter explaining why their competitors are wrong. I often wonder when they find time to figure out whether they, themselves, are right. Charlie Munger says you shouldn’t have an opinion on something unless you understand the opposing side’s view as well as they do. It’s good advice, but it’s easy to take it too far. It’s almost always easier to find a flaw in a system than it is to discover why or how something might work, in the same way that it’s easier to destroy a relationship than build one. A dangerous feeling is when your position on a topic centers around criticizing the other side versus evaluating why you’re right – or even better, why you might be wrong. It’s a seductive trap because pointing out flaws is so much easier and more convincing than finding the obscure force that will make something work. It often signals that you don’t actually understand a topic but you want to be involved, and finding other people’s flaws is all you can come up with because you don’t have your own position to analyze. This may have been true for the Wrights, who were genius in the early engineering days of the aircraft but lacked the skills needed to bring it to the next level. 3. The feeling of mastering a topic, particularly if that topic adapts and evolves. The first law of hard work is that you expect there to be a payoff. How could it be any other way? But a dangerous feeling occurs when you want the payoff of years of hard work to be an assumption that you’ve mastered a topic. Or that you don’t need to update your views because you already spent years of hard work learning those views. You see it all the time in so many industries. Veterans fall behind the younger generation because if veterans admitted that they had to adapt to what the younger generation is doing they’d feel like the hard work they put over their career was for nothing. Even if you know your field evolves, the idea that what you learned in the past may no longer be relevant is so painful that it’s easy to reject. The longer you’ve been in a field the truer that becomes. It’s hard for a 50-year veteran to admit that a rookie might know as much as he does. But if what the veteran learned 30 or 40 years ago is no longer relevant, it can be true. And the rookie may be more aware of what he doesn’t know, while the veteran is iron-clad sure of his beliefs because he’s worked hard and expects a payoff. Some things never change, and learning them in one era can help you in the next. But the more your field evolves – the more it involves people’s decisions – the smaller that set of learnings is, and the more you need to fight the urge to think that your long-term experience means you now permanently understand how the field works. Investor Dean Williams put it: “Expertise is great, but it has a bad side effect. It tends to create an inability to accept new ideas.”" MY COMMENT HOW true all the above is. I try to invest in the same way....over and over and over. No break.....no pause......no relaxing on your results from last year. Just the same thing over and over. At the same time....I do try to keep up to date with my portfolio. Times change.....stocks that are going to thrive change. The key for me.....do the things that made me successful.......but do them with current companies that are the LONG TERM DOMINANT leaders.
Hi Guys, Good reading the last couple pages, as for September, glad to see it gone I too was down 5.XX % for the month, ATH was back on the 3rd of September. Why buck the trend ? Take advantage of it It sounds like most of the experienced money waited till the last couple of weeks of September and spent their accumulated dividend money adding to their favorite positions OR try a new position or two ........................... I'm trying out the ARKQ , ARKK Also rounded out some positions to even lots/blocks AMZN, GOOGL, XSW Like Tom said : The fall has always been volatile. It's a great time to load up on companies before the upward march to New Year when the market often takes an even bigger hit. Further thoughts on the economy, "The REOPENING" of the economy is proving more difficult than first expected because of the disruption in the supply chain It's kind of like being on the freeway in the fast lane, during rush hour, everybody in a hurry, so they tailgate the car in front of them, and then have to slam on the brakes because they are following to close, speeding up and slowing down aggressively. This is going on in all sectors, it's going to take time for everything to flow along like a well oiled machine again. And just like rush hour traffic we have had some "accidents" along the way that have made us have to change lanes once or twice. Me: Give me the center lane , just at the limit of speeding (65mph in a 60 zone) with a good amount of space to the car in front of me, so I can see what's going on down the road. Of course I drive a Dodge Ram 1 Ton most of the time, Cheers all Here's to a better October EDIT: Results for the day Overall UP 1.38% Wife UP 1,24% Best acct UP 1.47% "W" Good read directly above, Dangerous Feelings
Well we are off to a BIG start to the new month. Stock market news live updates: Stocks rebound after September slump, Dow posts best start to October since 2003 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-october-1-2021-222040551.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks advanced on Friday, with equities recovering some losses after closing out a volatile month in the red. The Dow outperformed compared to the other two major indexes, as shares of Merck (MRK) jumped after the drugmaker released positive data on its COVID-19 antiviral pill. The 30-stock index ended higher by more than 480 points, or 1.4%, and posted its best start to October since 2003. The S&P 500 also gained, adding about 1.2% as cyclical stocks led the way higher. The session also marked the blue-chip index's best start to an October since 2007. The Nasdaq increased by 0.9%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 rose by nearly 2%. Friday's moves come following a losing month for U.S. equities as a confluence of concerns about the monetary and fiscal policy backdrop compounded with ongoing jitters over the coronavirus and inflation. The S&P 500 ended a seven-month winning streak in September, posting an about 4.8% monthly decline. The Dow ended September lower by 4.4%. The Nasdaq underperformed, shedding 5.4% amid a broad rotation away from growth and technology stocks as expectations for inflation and higher rates took holding. "As I look at my 'what am I going to be afraid of list' today, there are a lot of things on that list," Scott Wrenn, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global equity strategist, told Yahoo Finance on Thursday. "We don't really think earnings are going to be that much of a mystery or concern to the market. We know we're going to get out of this year with a reasonable amount of earnings growth. I think there is, though, the overriding theme of, are we going to have embedded inflation? What might the Fed do about it? Is the Fed going to remain easy? "Those types of things ... I think those are the overriding concerns." "We've had such a big run-up in the market that to have a 5% pullback or something off the top after the market basically doubled in 15 months, I think you have to put this in the right context," he added. "And while there's a lot of things to worry about, many of them have a very low probability of causing a lot of long-term problems for the market." As of Thursday's close, the S&P 500 was still up about 15% so far for the year-to-date, buoyed by outperformance in the cyclical energy and financials sectors that would stand to benefit from rising commodity prices and interest rates. On Friday, investors eyed the latest print on personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which showed the biggest rise in inflation since 1991 in August. Heading into October, some strategists are bracing for more choppiness in equity markets, with more developments on monetary and fiscal policy set to emerge against what many expect will be a backdrop of moderating economic growth and corporate profits. "I think the pace of gains is just going to be slower. I think that's not that surprising, given that in the second quarter, we were thinking that COVID was very close to an end, and then Delta put a dent in that. That's really throwing us off a little bit," Shawn Snyder, Citi U.S. Wealth Management head of investment strategy, told Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday. "Also, just a large confluence of events were happening in September. We have now Fed tapering. We have the ongoing D.C. drama and all those things that are just kind of leading to some weakness in equity markets."" MY COMMENT There are MORE positives than negatives for the markets right now. BUT....no one focuses on the positives. We basically have the entire re-opening ahead of us at this moment. We just started October with a great gain in the markets. We KNOW what all the issues are and have dealt with them for a year now. WE MOVE ON FROM HERE.
The.....TEN YEAR TREASURY YIELD......has now plummeted down to 1.465%. AMAZING that the sudden rise.....just a few days ago.....has now backed WAY OFF. YES.....it was all a function of the FAKE government funding crisis which is now resolved.....NEVERMIND. Of course.....the fear mongering by Yellen and others about the USA defaulting on its debt for the first time in history is also now.......NEVERMIND. If left alone the Ten Year yield will now find its REAL level. ALSO AMAZING......that there is hardly anything in the financial media about this very LARGE drop in the Ten Year yield today. This is a perfect example of the sort of short term.....CRAP.....that you just have to put up with and ENDURE as an investor. NEVER let yourself get WHIPSAWED by this sort of "stuff".
Up 1.26 today.. needless to say - not happy about this week But I’m pretty sure that we will be flat next week or slightly in the red… just another wave to ride as usual in the long term investing scheme of things…. I’m sitting here with some cash in hand just waiting for another drop next week…. Will prolly add more to Nike fb… or maybe just throw everything on Tesla.. who knows anymore
I think the POST-EARNINGS drop in NIKE is now over. It has been totally overshadowed by all the general "stuff" that is happening in the markets. The stock hit a recent high on August 4, 2021 at a price of $171.91. It is now near a low......since that high.....of $147.06 today....up a bit from the absolute recent low of $145.23 a day ago. Looking back further the prior lows were on June 18, at $128.41 and April 20 at $127.11. I dont think there is any way it is going back to $140 or below near term......unless.....it is due to a general correction. The price is at a near term discount of about 14.50% compared to just 2 months ago. Just putting some info out there......NOT recommending anything to anyone else.
WELL....hoping it does not rain tomorrow since we are playing a festival about mid afternoon. I have been adding a lot of shows to my schedule lately for October, November and December......plus a few in January and February. ALL of them are outside shows....so subject to rain and weather issues. We now go from playing outdoor shows in the 100 degree heat of the summer.....to playing outdoor shows in the 45-70 degree weather of Fall and Winter. But no complaints....I would rather play in the cooler weather than the summer heat.
