The Long Term Investor

HERE is the.....SUPPOSED.....reason for the turnaround in the markets today. COME ON........there is not and never has been any doubt that the debt ceiling fix would happen.......it was and is ALL simply political games and brinkmanship.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks turn higher as volatile month rolls on

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-october-6-2021-221413376.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks turned positive Wednesday, with all three major stock indexes pushing higher during the afternoon session following a report that Congress might reach a short-term agreement to raise the government borrowing limit and prevent a default.

The Nasdaq pared earlier losses to trade in slightly positive territory Wednesday afternoon, with investors swooping in to buy a dip in tech and growth stocks. The index had been down by as much as 1.2% earlier in Wednesday's trading day. Both the S&P 500 and Dow also gained, cutting losses after Bloomberg reported that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was set to offer Democratic lawmakers a deal to temporarily raise the government debt ceiling through November.

Earlier, the three major indexes had been lower as concerns over inflation and spiking energy and commodity prices outweighed optimism over the pace of the economic recovery.

So far in October, equities have see-sawed between steep gains and losses, with investors struggling to ascertain whether the economic and policy backdrop will be supportive enough for risk assets to prevent a repeat of September's volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, has jumped to hold above 20, after spending much of the summer in the mid-teens.

"It's unclear what October holds. I have a big question market in my mind: Could it be the ugly sequel to September?" Kristina Hooper, Invesco U.S. chief global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.

"Certainly what we've seen thus far is that any time there is a selloff, investors are quick to move in and find opportunities," she added. "I would assume that we're likely to see more volatility going forward as we anticipate the Fed's tapering announcement. And so that creates an announcement where investors can dollar-cost average on down days in areas where they would like to, and where they're interested in adding exposure. This is probably not the only selloff we'll see for October."

One of the primary concerns for markets has been around inflation, with prices of goods and services rising for both businesses and end users as demand remains elevated and supply chain constraints continue to weigh. Traders have been waiting to see whether these persistent issues ultimately drag on economic activity and corporate profits, with details on the latter set to come into focus with the unofficial start of third-quarter earnings season next week with the big banks.

At least for now, the latest batch of economic data has been largely upbeat on the state of the U.S. economy. Durable goods orders, retail sales and purchasing managers' indices tracking activity across both the U.S. manufacturing and services sector have all recently topped expectations. However, this data has also brought copious signs of inflation: A subindex tracking prices paid by suppliers rose in the Institute for Supply Management's latest services index, and personal consumption expenditures rose at the highest annual rate since 1991 based on government data released last week.

"It's not a surprise that the world 'stagflation' is coming back into everybody's vernacular. Energy prices are going up, these cargo ships are stacked up on both sides of the coast, shortages of everything ... and those prices are going up. But the core news is good," Simeon Hyman, ProShares Advisors head of investment strategy, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.

"Is there going to be a little bit of inflation? Probably. Are rates going to go up? Just with tapering, almost absolutely," Hyman added. "But will there be a contraction of economic activity? Very unlikely — the economy is likely to remain pretty strong." "

MY COMMENT

If true....that they will kick the can down the road till the end of November........what a joke. It just means that in early December we will once again face the issue of government funding PLUS the issue of the debt limit. Things will simply REMAIN in turmoil and up in the air for the rest of the year if that is the case.

I dont see this as particularly good news for....investors or the markets......."IF"....it is true. It is much better for investors if this issue is taken care of right now by passing a new debt limit by RECONCILIATION. I am taking this with a grain of salt. It is the type of media trial balloon that is common in politics.

 

Well one thing is the fact that the markets are basically one big discounting machine. Going forward ALL the current issues are OLD NEWS.....fully baked in at the moment. The government funding, debt limit, inflation, tapering, the erratic start to re-opening, etc, etc, etc. We have been living with the same old issues for a long time.

THEREFORE......for my money the key issue that is going to dominate the next month or two is going to be.....EARNINGS. Of course....that is in a perfect world. The media will.....still..... hammer on the same old issues over and over. BUT....as an investor......especially as a long term investor......what I really care about is EARNINGS and business FUNDAMENTALS of the companies that I own.

 

I believe we will end the week with a couple of very good days.....the POWER of positive thinking. The futures.....right now....especially the NASDAQ are up BIG.

Lets carry that through to the open tomorrow and get back some of the money that the markets took from us over the past week or two.

 

We open STRONG. ALL the averages are UP by more than 1%.

This is SOLID PROOF of what we all knew......at least most of us "little" investors. The majority of the drop and erratic markets over the past weeks has been due to government and the politicians.........of all sides and types. As soon as we get the government funding and NOW....probably.....the default issue out of the way......BOOM the markets are going up. In addition we NOW have the tax and spend bills out of the news since they.....temporarily.....collapsed.

A perfect example of how short term issues that have.....NOTHING....to do with the actual markets impact the short term. ALSO.....a perfect example of the behavior and thinking of the financial media over the short term. ACTUALLY.....just about NOTHING you see in the financial media has anything to do with STOCK INVESTING. I am using the term....."investing".....to mean those people that are buying stocks and funds for the long term. Short term trading and speculation are NOT investing. That does not mean there is anything wrong with short term trading or speculation....if that is what someone wants to do. It just means that......in my mind....language should be precise and has consequences. "Investing" is investing and "short term trading" and "speculation" are very different in focus and goals.

UNFORTUNATELY......and I DO believe it is intentional......the brokers and all of the investment industry has not REPLACED the terms "investor" and "investing"......with the terms "trader' and "trading". GEE.....I wonder why? Which one generates more fees and money for them?

 

I like this little article.......big tech and interest rates.

Why Rising Interest Rates Needn’t Stall Big Tech
Volatility under the hood is normal—don’t read too much into it.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/why-rising-interest-rates-neednt-stall-big-tech

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Are Treasury markets hinting at trouble ahead for the Tech and Tech-like giants that have led this bull market higher? Some pundits say so, based on the observation that rising interest rates have coincided with short-term pullbacks in Tech stocks at various points this year, including the present. With the Fed signaling that quantitative easing (QE) will wind down soon, many think a continued rise in long rates means tough times for Tech and Tech-like firms from here. But history shows rising rates aren’t automatically negative for Tech stocks. While we don’t expect rising rates to persist, we still think that is worth keeping in mind.

According to those worried rising interest rates will weigh on Tech and Tech-like firms’ returns, when yields are low, investors are more willing to buy growth-oriented companies on the expectation of big future profits. But rising yields suggest investors feel more optimistic about the economy, so they supposedly prefer companies poised to benefit most from stronger economic activity in the present—ordinarily, value stocks. To back this claim, we have seen analysts cite a mix of recent data as interest rates have ticked higher. For example The Wall Street Journal reported on a $1.2 billion outflow from Tech mutual and exchange-traded funds in the week ending September 22—the first net withdrawal in three months. Others noted that Tech stocks fell when interest rates rose this year, using a Tech-heavy ETF as a proxy for the sector.[ii]

But looking beyond what just happened shows reality isn’t so simple. Recent history proves Tech can do just fine alongside rising rates. From July 25, 2012 to 2013’s end, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 1.43% to 3.04%.[iii] Tech rose 36.9% over that stretch—a bit behind global markets’ 42.3%, but still up nicely.[iv] Or consider when the Treasury yield climbed from 1.37% to 3.24% between July 8, 2016 and November 8, 2018.[v] Tech’s 69.7% return over that timeframe more than doubled global stocks’ 30.8%.[vi]

Taking a longer perspective, Tech has both risen and fallen in a variety of interest rate environments—there isn’t a set pattern. Over the past two decades, the correlation between Tech’s relative returns and Treasury yields was -0.10.[vii] A correlation of 1.00 means the datasets have identical movement while -1.00 means the assets move completely inversely to each other, so a -0.10 correlation implies not much relation at all.

Exhibits 1 and 2 display this lack of correlation visually. Just as rates’ swings didn’t impede Tech stocks’ leadership for much of 2010 – 2020, they didn’t prevent the sector’s lag for most of the 2001 – 2010 period.

Exhibit 1: No Interest Rate/Tech Correlation, 2010 – 2020


Source: FactSet, as of 10/4/2021. MSCI World Information Technology and MSCI World returns with net dividends and 10-year US Treasury yield, 12/31/2009 – 12/31/2020.

On the flipside, Tech lagged the broader market in the 2000 – 2010 decade—but Treasury yields didn’t tell you much about Tech’s returns then, either. (Exhibit 2)

Exhibit 2: No Interest Rate/Tech Correlation, 2001 – 2010


Source: FactSet, as of 10/4/2021. MSCI World Information Technology and MSCI World returns with net dividends and 10-year US Treasury yield, 12/31/2000 – 12/31/2010.

Now, as some have observed, rising long-term interest rates could steepen the yield curve, which tends to benefit value-oriented companies. Value firms, which are usually lower credit quality, typically depend heavily on bank lending for capital, as they can’t access capital markets as easily as big growth firms. Banks borrow short term to fund long-term loans. Hence, the gap between short and long rates is a proxy for banks’ net interest margins—the potential profit on new loans. With short rates near zero, rising long rates mean a bigger potential profit. That makes risk-taking a more worthwhile endeavor, which is why a steeper yield curve incentivizes banks to lend to a wider swath of borrowers.

But we don’t think long-term interest rates will keep shooting higher and stay elevated. Inflation is the primary determinant of long rates. While inflation rates are elevated presently, we think these stem from a combination of passing factors, e.g., economic reopenings and global supply shortages/bottlenecks. The likelihood they continue driving fast price gains from here seems low, especially given all the investment pouring into new production capacity. In our view, inflation likely returns to its slower pre-pandemic rate. Note, too, tapering QE didn’t have a lasting impact on rates in 2013 and 2014.

In our experience, volatility under the hood is normal, and reacting to it can be as dangerous as reacting to pullbacks. Broad markets don’t move in gradual, smooth lines—and neither do the market’s subcategories. Moreover, countertrends at the sector and style level often accompany volatility, and this can end as quickly as it begins. In our view, reacting to short-term, unpredictable movements can invite errors. Instead, we suggest investors look beyond the immediate short term and look to the 3 – 30 month timeframe markets typically weigh.

As turbulent as the past several weeks have been, the longer-term economic factors stocks care about haven’t much changed, in our view. Most major economies are near or above pre-pandemic levels of output—and growth is slowing as expected following a reopening-related pop. This slow-growth environment likely resembles the pre-pandemic environment, which favored big, growth-oriented firms—the kind that boast big gross margins that can buffer against the kind of cost pressures plaguing other industries today. Tech and Tech-like stocks did best in that pre-COVID environment, and we expect them to continue leading despite the occasional countertrend."


MY COMMENT

It just makes me LAUGH every time I see the financial media repeat the MYTH that the BIG CAP TECH companies.......the largest most dominant established businesses in the world......are somehow more sensitive to small rate increases in the Ten Year Treasury. These are NOT young growth companies.....these are semi-mature.....BEHEMOTH TECH CONGLOMERATES. These are the most DOMINANT companies in the world and have been for a long time.

It is simply INANE to think that the Ten Year yield rising from 1.45%.......near the lowest rates in the past 100 years...... to 1.55%......STILL near the lowest rate in the past 100 years...... is going to have any impact on these companies in any way.

The last paragraph in the article above sums up REALITY.

 

Speaking of the MYTHS and NOISE that is the short term for investors.

Raising the Debt Ceiling

https://ritholtz.com/2021/10/raising-the-debt-ceiling/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


Source: Politico

"It is amazing how much of the daily “News” is useless noise.

To wit, the coverage of brinksmanship on the debt ceiling. You might think this was an important issue ever given all of the Sturm und Drang surrounding the impending default of the US Government! Unless of course you look at the history of the debt ceiling kabuki theater, and realize eventually, the adults take charge and prevent the nation from defaulting.

But its not just events like this silly debt ceiling dance; Nearly all of the noise around markets and stocks and investing turns out to be nowhere nearly as important as it feels in the moment.

I have written about this before, but it is worth mentioning again: Birinyi Associates puts out a wonderful collection of headlines and excerpts from the most important news stories each day. They assemble these quarterly and annually. The amazing thing about these collections of mainstream news articles — terrible headlines, all full of ominous warnings of awful things to come — is that when viewed with a bit of distance and context, look utterly absurd.

Most of the time, most of the things we worry most about turn out to be mostly meaningless. They work themselves out without any help from us.


Its an important lesson for investors."

MY COMMENT

I should have just BOLDED the entire little article.

 

WELL here we are......hopefully POST debt crisis for about a month......and the markets are STILL BOOMING about one hour into the day. The DOW......+1.53%.......the SP500.......+1.45%......the NASDAQ.......+1.60%.

EXACTLY.

 

YOU are right Zukodany. Yes FUNDAMENTALS and evaluation of a business model are the most important aspects of stock picking and investing. BUT......you need to do it for yourself and NOT trust or rely on the media or others to do the work for you. OR....at least carefully evaluate what you are reading if it is data put out by others.

You are also so right on the most important aspect of investing........USING YOUR OWN COMMON SENSE. Have the CONFIDENCE to see the world as it really is.....and to ignore and distrust the media line and all the NOISE. Think for yourself. Of course....this is just about impossible for most people. I believe this is the NUMBER ONE reason that investors like Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett and others are outliers and HUGELY successful. They practice independent thinking and DO NOT blindly just go along with the common beliefs.

 

Well the markets did show us the money today. We backed off some by the close from the mid day highs.....but a very nice day. EVERY one of my 10 stocks was in the GREEN today. AND....a good beat on the SP500 today by 0.40%. I am racking up some nice beats on the SP500 lately.

FIVE of my ten stocks were up by 1% or more today. AND....two of the five.....Nike and Home Depot....were up by over 2% for the day.

Looks like Zukodany is already making money on his new Nike purchase.

 

AND.....here is the latest economic data....that no one will care about.

Jobless claims post sharp decline to 326,000, better than expectations

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/07/us-jobless-claims.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Weekly jobless claims totaled 326,000 last week, a drop of 38,000 from the previous week and below estimates for 345,000.
• Continuing claims fell to 2.71 million, a decline of 97,000.
• The total of those receiving benefits under all programs tumbled to 4.17 million as enhanced pandemic-related programs ran out.

The total of Americans submitting jobless claims fell sharply last week as enhanced federal unemployment benefits wound down, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 326,000 for the week ended Oct. 2, below the 345,000 Dow Jones estimate and a drop from the previous week's 364,000.

The numbers came at a time when most pandemic-related programs that extended unemployment benefits are winding down, and amid hopes that declining Covid cases will spark a round of more aggressive hiring heading into the fall.

Stock market futures rose slightly following the report, adding to already strong gains. Government bond yields also were higher.

The weekly total was the lowest level since Sept. 4 and reverses a trend of rising claims over the past three weeks.

However, the four-week moving average, which smooths weekly volatility in the numbers, edged higher to 344,000.

Continuing claims, which run a week behind and total those who have filed for at least two weeks of benefits, also posted a healthy decline, dropping 97,000 to 2.71 million.

A notable change occurred in those receiving benefits under all programs.

That total, which runs through Sept. 18, dropped by 854,638, almost all of which came from pandemic-related programs and extended benefits. There are now 4.17 million workers getting benefits, compared with just over 5 million for the previous week and 24.6 million a year ago.

California accounted for a big chunk of the drop in initial claims, with a decrease of 10,513, according to unadjusted numbers. The District of Columbia saw a decline of 3,951 and Texas was down 3,099.

The report comes a day ahead of the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls tally for September. Economists expect that report to show an increase of 500,000 jobs and an unemployment rate decline to 5.1%."

MY COMMENT

I cant tell you how many articles......perhaps a hundred or more.....I have seen over the past six months.....explaining....that the FREE MONEY was not impacting people going back to work and that the end of the free money would not make that much of a difference. Now.....NEVERMIND.

It is just RIDICULOUS how the financial media puts stuff out there that is just made up opinion and when it turns out to OBVIOUSLY be shown to be false.....they just totally ignore their previous statements.

That is EXACTLY what we see above with the various statements that the improvement in the jobs numbers is.....DUE TO......the end of the FREE MONEY. It is just so STUPID.....all of us.....anyone with a half a brain......KNEW that the end of the free money would kick start people going back to work.

 

In conjunction with the comment above. There is nothing wrong with looking up sources that have crunched the numbers on the financials for a company or a stock. Why do that work yourself when it is easily available on the internet. I routinely review the financials for companies going back five years......but.....If I want to see data crunched from those numbers......I just find it on the internet.

HOWEVER.......I only use that data as RAW DATA......I NEVER give any weight at all to some analyst opinion.....or some media information on whether or not a stock is a buy or a sell. I always draw my own conclusions......I dont care what someone else thinks or why.

 

HERE is a nice POSITIVE view of the short to medium term for investors.

Why the recent market decline was likely just a shakeout before a major rally

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-...-shakeout-before-a-major-rally-182648220.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The recent market decline has many people wondering if this is the start of a bigger correction, or just a shakeout before a fourth quarter rally. I’m leaning towards the latter for the following reasons: seasonality, the Fed, technicals, and sentiment.

Seasonality is a short-term negative, but a positive into year-end. From approximately mid-September until mid-October, factors such as index rebalancing and end-of-the-quarter portfolio adjustments can lead to seasonal weakness. These factors, along with debt ceiling concerns, are currently contributing to the volatility in the market.

When we come out of this, we will begin one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, October is traditionally strong, but after volatility and weakness in the early part of the month. Following that, November and December are two of the three strongest months of the year (according to data since 1980). Market participants just need to be patient as we get through some near-term seasonal weakness.


Chart is provided by MarketSmith
Chart provided by MarketSmith.

The Federal Reserve meets every six weeks to discuss monetary policy. In their upcoming November meeting, they are expected to announce their “tapering” schedule. This is their plan to reduce the $120 billion in monthly bond purchases that began in the spring of 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic was taking hold.

My feeling is they won’t begin tapering until early 2022, and even if they start earlier, their reduced buying will still be providing a substantial amount of liquidity into the markets. In addition, their near-zero interest rate policy will likely remain until 2023. Bottom line, the Fed will still be providing the backdrop for an equity friendly environment.

For the most part, the S&P 500 has held its 10-week moving average since the middle of 2020. This technical average is important because it’s an area of institutional support. The index has closed slightly below it recently, but I fully expect it to regain that level after we get through this seasonally weak period. In addition, the Nasdaq Composite continues to hold a key area around 14170-14180. As seen in the chart below, I view this recent pullback as a retest of the prior February and April highs.


Chart is provided by MarketSmith.
Chart is provided by MarketSmith.

There are also many sectors that continue to act well. Financials and Energy are close to 52-week highs, and growth sectors such as Semiconductors, Medical Products, Retail, and Software are building technical bases. Many stocks in these groups have seen recent bullish option activity, showing that big institutions are speculating on higher prices into year-end.

There’s an old saying that the market tends to fool the majority. Right now, many market participants have one foot out the door. Several sentiment surveys continue to show that investors are holding high levels of cash and are consistently buying puts on every drop. From a contrarian point of view, this consistent fear keeps the market from seeing aggressive follow through selling.

Over the near-term, the biggest requirement is patience as the market still needs to get through this seasonally weak period. Coming out of that, we will be heading into a traditionally strong time to be in the market. The equity friendly backdrop provided by the Fed should help propel the market into new highs by year-end. If you trade individual equities, stay focused on the stocks showing the strongest technicals and fundamentals, and always manage risk if any position turns against you. Good luck!"

I can be reached at: [email protected]

Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained on this site constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned on this site. The stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
438.66 +3.76 +0.86%
^DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
34,754.94 +337.95 +0.98%
^GSPC
S&P 500
4,399.76 +36.21 +0.83%
^IXIC
NASDAQ Composite
14,654.02 +152.10 +1.05%
^GSPC
S&P 500
4,399.76 +36.21 +0.83%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
294.85 +1.74 +0.59%
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
3,302.43 +40.42 +1.24%
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American Funds The Growth Fund of America Class R-6
76.59 +0.33 +0.43%
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
452.87 +3.53 +0.79%
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There is a bunch of stuff above that this site is not allowing me to edit out. I will do so when it is possible. Everything after......"good luck".......is going to be deleted.....if this site lets me do it.

My comment (to the above)

Some "Technical stuff" in there for Emmett. But in general I agree with that little article. It is EXTREMELY OBVIOUS that the volatility and weakness in the markets over the past weeks has been ALL due to government......the funding issue, the debt crisis, and all the pending bills. We have NOW stocked all this stuff up to come due again on DECEMBER 3. Till than we can have a few weeks of PEACE for the markets and for EARNINGS to start.

CONTRARY to what is being reported.......there is NO deal on the debt ceiling......they simply kicked the issue down the road by ONE MONTH.

 

I am FOCUSED on closing out this year with good market gains. Not that I will do anything one way or the other. I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

With this little rally the SP500 is NOW back to a year to date gain of 17.14%.......OUTSTANDING and well above the average long term return of about 11% per year. I am now back to a year to date gain of 18.02%. Although I need a bit less than 1% additional gains to get back to my all time high.