The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

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    Good! Also saw it tonight with wifie.
    I did enjoy it even considering it a bit too long. Actors are ok, not stunning but fair, photography also right, decent directing.
    Cant exactly compare both versions, it´s like comparing a 80´s car with an actual model. Resources are diferent today, you can make wonders specially in sci-fi production.
    To be honest I think Villeneuve is a "so so" director, with some good work mixed with some crappy work (see Enemy, Prisoners, etc). Lynch is on a different level. Only Twin Peeks would grant him a special place in series/movies history. He is a trully genius in art directing, with work that shall be seen and studied in cinema schools for decades.
    Just my 2 cents!
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I saw the new DUNE on opening night on HBO MAX. I thought it was very good. I liked the first version but liked the new one better. I thought the characters and acting were better in the new one. I thought the new version.......perhaps.....made a bit more sense for someone that had not read the book. I am very much looking forward to the rest of the story.....in about two years.....October 2023.

    I read the book long ago in the late 60's early 70's.
     
    #8222 WXYZ, Oct 30, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2021
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    SORRY Emmett.....no bikini photos or post cards. I dont think you would want to see a bunch of gnarly old musicians wearing bikinis.
     
  4. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    ah, no thank you. the image of keith richards in a speedo could damage a person to the point of joining a monastery
     
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  5. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Well this thread went down hill real quick! Hopefully not any indication on the direction of the market! Lets rally around Emmett and see if we can expand to new ATH's. Hopefully AMD will turn around from it's usual Earning runup profit taking and join NVDA.
     
  6. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Great open for me today…. Everything all mixed up overall but some of my positions are up bigly! Let’s see what November brings… By this time I’m already used to a 5% swing on a month to month basis… question is, which way will it swing THIS month?
     
  7. IgnoreTheCrowd

    IgnoreTheCrowd New Member

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    Hi Investors,
    thank you for the confirmation of my new account.

    I am a 54 year old long term investor from Munich Germany (like the "Oktoberfest-Forum logo ;-)) and i am interested to build a network of value investors. If you are interested please contact me. My experience in stock investing is 35 years.

    Greetings from Munich!
     
  8. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Up a big 1.64 today… whoa.. what a strong end to this day.
    Tsla is going insane these days! Reminds me of pretty much all the times it took off in the past… when that stock goes up, it’s serious business!
     
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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.....Tesla is insane. I just got back and have not had time to do much....but I did check my account and saw the Tesla result today........UP 8.49%. So in the span of ONE WEEK I have seen a gain in my Tesla purchase of..........GASP.......34.5%.

    That is about all that kept my losses down today. I was in the RED today and got beat by the SP500 by 0.65%. The big TECH stocks were the killer for me today with ALL of them being down for the day.

    You Tesla owners should be CHEERING every time I buy the stock......I seem to be some sort of REVERSE JINX on that stock. I dont take any credit as a stock picker.....but both times I have purchased it......it SKYROCKETED.

    What I DO take credit for.......is......following my long time investing habit.....based on the academic research......of going all in all at once........when I decide to make a buy......NOT waiting for some buy signal....or for the stock to drop. At the moment.....this buy is a classic example of doing just that. For me this is just playing the PROBABILITIES.....since the research shows that the odds are in your favor doing this........over the long term.
     
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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I did read this little article earlier today while waiting at the airport. BOO.

    Investment Horror Stories--and the Lessons They Teach
    March 2020. The oil-pocalypse. The emerging-markets party that never came. Gather round and hear these tales of horror, and learn from these mistakes.

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1062728/investment-horror-stories-and-the-lessons-they-teach

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "It is a dark and stormy night--or a brightly lit desk in an open-floor-plan office--when you spot an opportunity. Shadowy, distant, and…perfect. This is the one that will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. Or is it? The rising panic as stocks fall, the desperate rush to sell, no value to be found anywhere. These are the stories that Bay Street and Wall Street whisper in the dead of night. Stories so grim, so full of fear, that many try to banish them from their minds.

    This Halloween, we asked some foremost financiers and voices of reason to dig deep into the depths of despair, to find their worst investment horror stories, and relive them here, sharing the lessons they learned, to help retail investors like you evade these pitfalls and bypass the descent into the madness of financial disaster. March 2020. The oil-pocalypse. The emerging-markets party that never came. Hear these tales of terror so that you may tread carefully.

    The Selling
    Horror stories are designed to artificially trigger our "fight, flight, or freeze" responses that send a wave of adrenalin through our bodies and prompt us to take action to escape the perceived threat. This is typically achieved by a shocking break to gradually build tension. Investors will be all too familiar with this experience. Like a hapless character in a movie who runs from one threat right into the hands of the villain, a sudden fall in asset prices can prompt us to take swift action only to discover later that we made a terrible decision. In my previous career managing portfolios directly for individuals, I witnessed several examples of clients who insisted on selling their entire portfolio when assets were falling. While they often saved money when measured at the bottom of the market cycle, they typically failed to reinvest, believing they had escaped the threat of falling prices. Only later did they realize that they had run into the arms of the great threat of not investing, and they drifted further away from their goals. When watching horror movies or market movements, it is typically better to look away when you are feeling uncomfortable.

    -Dan Kemp, global chief investment officer, Morningstar Investment Management Europe

    It Emerges, Chapter 1
    I cut my teeth in the industry as a closed-end fund analyst at Morningstar in the early 1990s. I felt fortunate when Templeton Emerging Markets was on my coverage list; back then, manager Mark Mobius was the king of emerging-markets investing. I'd track down Mobius wherever he was around the globe to get an update on the fund's holdings. More often than not, I'd be interviewing him in my jammies from my kitchen at home, as it was usually 2 a.m. and he was in some far-flung corner of the world.

    Mobius was exceptionally articulate: He sold the emerging-markets story, hard. Who could resist the idea of participating in the economic promise of developing markets? And I bought it: Specifically, I bought Mobius' similarly run open-end cousin, Templeton Developing Markets, as the first investment outside of my 401(k) plan. I was excited to have the Mark Mobius managing my money, and I couldn't wait for him to generate a 70% return for me, just as he had for his shareholders the 12 months prior to my purchase.

    You can guess where this story is headed: Over the next couple of years, emerging markets hit a pothole, and so did Templeton Developing Markets. I sold the fund for a loss. While it might be a stretch to call this an investing horror story, it was nevertheless a meaningful investment lesson: Don't chase performance, don't expect a quick return on a story that may need years to play out, and don't let great manager interviews speak louder than sound investment planning.

    -Susan Dziubinski, director of content, Morningstar.com

    It Emerges, Chapter 2
    The year was 1993, and I happened to see Mark Mobius, then-manager of several emerging-markets funds for Templeton, speak about the incredible promise he saw in those markets. I was sold--hook, line, and sinker--and convinced my husband that we should invest at least some of our wedding gift money into one of his funds. Never mind that we were trying to save for a house, so we had no business investing in any stocks, let alone an incredibly volatile emerging-markets stock fund. The fund was also expensive and carried a sales charge, even for people like us, who weren't working with an advisor. It was a classic case of an ill-conceived, story-driven purchase made without regard for our risk capacity or our spending horizon. We were lucky we didn't have more money at stake!

    -Christine Benz, director of personal finance, Morningstar

    Ghost Train to BioNTech
    I have a stash of mad money that I deploy to invest in relatively speculative companies and funds. In late 2020, I tapped those funds to buy some shares of BioNTech. I had become interested in the company before I understood it was playing such a big role in addressing the pandemic. I read Morningstar's research about how the mRNA technology it was developing might someday be used to cure certain cancers. When I made the "buy" decision, though, I consciously told myself, "This is a long-term investment. BioNTech is not going to cure cancer overnight." I did not, however, establish a price--vis a vis a company valuation--at which I would sell the shares.

    Thanks in large part to the U.S. FDA's emergency authorization in late 2020, the company's shares took off soon after I bought them. While I was on holiday on Aug. 9, the company's valuation briefly exceeded $100 billion, at a share price of $447. It had achieved what I would consider a long-term valuation level, but it had done so in a very short time. I thought, "Wait, hold on. Don't sell. You're in this for the long run." I also must admit that I committed one of the cardinal sins of selling: I wanted to get into long-term capital-gains territory. And for that, I'd need to wait until Sept. 21. Dumb. The stock market doesn't care about my taxes, and BioNTech shares have since fallen to about $260 from $447. I have held on to all of my shares in the meantime.

    Lessons Learned
    1. When buying a stock, establish a price at which you'd be comfortable selling it.
    2. Even when you're buying for the long term, sometimes a company hits its long-term valuation target quickly.
    3. If the stock has already far exceeded your target, don't let tax minimization concerns cloud your sell discipline.
    -Sylvester Flood, senior editorial director, Morningstar

    A Nightmare on Oil Street
    This horror story happened before my most recent social media-fueled trading spree, but it started everything. I had connected with someone on social media who described himself as an experienced investor in his 70s. He hated the risk profile of stocks and having to hand over his money to portfolio managers. He loved options and had a passion he liked to share. I was skeptical, but we had great discussions and I learned a lot from him. Over many weeks that followed, he took to teaching me the ins and outs of options. He was a big fan of covered calls. Specifically, oil-related plays: "You can count on OPEC to control the price. I've seen this happen for a long time. Just write a call that's years out. The price of oil will come back into equilibrium and you'll keep the premium [on the option] as profit."

    His underlying exchange-traded fund of choice was ProShares' UltraPro 3x Crude Oil ETF, which is now defunct of course. He had been making about 30% annually for a couple years thanks to the volatility with 300% leverage and suggested I try. I remember asking him about potential demand catastrophes and he said over time the underlying ETF would recover. I dipped my toes in and began writing covered calls. I started, and I began to make a small but steady return over a few months…until the oil-pocalypse.

    Nearly my entire investment evaporated. I remember feeling numb as futures dove before heading to bed. But I had been stung in one good way at least, only for options to become a hobby I now enjoy. That man disappeared from the forum around that time. I wonder how he did and what he thinks of OPEC now.

    Lessons Learned
    1. When using leverage, keep in mind that your investment could be vaporized between trading sessions.
    2. Cartels can and do occasionally lose control.
    3. Incorporate the structure of any individual funds into your investment strategy. Commodity products involve futures, roll yield, …and loss. ETNs differ from ETFs. These factors can affect the overall risk/reward profile of your strategy and help you size your bets accordingly.
    -Andrew Willis, content editor, Morningstar Canada

    Oil Be Back
    My worst investment experience is related to an oil-services company I spotted in the course of 2013 before the oil market started to crash. I made several mistakes. I was stubborn because I thought I was right on my valuation (assets that I thought would keep their value), and therefore I added to my position at the wrong time. My other mistake is that I completely missed the bigger picture: 1) the oil crash came after a huge capital expenditures cycle by the oil and gas industry, and there was clear overcapacity in the industry; 2) oil prices are heavily influenced by external factors (geopolitics, macro) that I didn't factor in appropriately and were out of control by the company I selected. It was an expensive but useful lesson I will always keep in mind. It has helped me improve my checklist before investing. I also try to be careful of the bigger picture, the capital expenditures cycle of the industry I'm interested in, and any major disruption that might upset it.

    -Jocelyn Jovène, senior financial analyst, Morningstar France

    A Costly Mistake
    I was looking for a mutual fund aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) n.5: Gender equality. I came across an Italian open-end fund that seemed the right choice. I clicked on the fact sheet and I read that it was invested in cash, government and corporate bonds, multi-asset products, and derivatives. I dug into it a bit more to find out why "gender equality" was in the name of the fund and discovered that the derivatives were used to get exposure to gender-equality indexes. So you didn't invest directly in best-in-class companies, but you got exposure between 30% and 50% indirectly. Other holdings were bonds or in-house funds unrelated to SDG n.5. More astonishing was the cost: Placement fees were above 3%, plus management fees, plus performance fees and exit fees (if you disinvest during the first five years). Why must I pay so much if I can get exposure to a gender diversity index with an ETF charging expenses around 0.2% annually?

    -Sara Silano, editorial manager, Morningstar Italy

    Tick, Tock, Time's Running Out!
    While the markets recovered from the March 2020 sell-off, I feared a "dead cat bounce"--meaning a further decline. Therefore, I waited patiently on the sideline while the stock markets climbed higher and higher. After realizing that the bull had indeed defeated the bear (at least at that time), I eventually bought stocks at much higher valuations.

    Lessons Learned
    1. Timing the market is extremely difficult.
    2. Dollar-cost averaging can serve you well because it can reduce the impact of regret aversion: the tendency to refrain from making decisions to prevent any potential mistakes, for example "I should have bought" or "I shouldn't have bought."
    I think Peter Lynch sums it up well: "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."

    -Christopher Greiner, data journalist, Morningstar

    The Descent
    As a young kid out of college just entering the world of finance, and having saved up some money from my first few paychecks, I was excited to start investing in stocks. I had been watching "Wall Street Week" with Louis Rukeyser and listened as a portfolio manager reviewed their top picks. One of them sounded especially intriguing, and I wrote down the ticker. The next Monday morning as the market opened, I eagerly phoned in my order and bought my first stock, only to watch it sink precipitously over the next few weeks. Without having done any of my own work to understand the company's future outlook or valuation metrics, I didn't know whether to hold the stock or sell out of it. Finally, I couldn't take the pain any longer and sold the stock for a couple hundred dollar loss (a good deal of money back then for a 22 year old) … but what I learned was much more valuable.

    Lessons Learned
    Before putting money to work, to do your own due diligence, synthesize an investment thesis, decide at what valuation to buy a stock, and learn when to either cut a loss or build a larger position when the market moves against you."

    MY COMMENT

    YES.....we ALL have some story of an investment gone wrong....mostly due to our own FRAILTIES as an investor. the KEY is to learn from your mistake and not do it again. THAN.....move on and become a better investor due to the experience.
     
    #8230 WXYZ, Nov 1, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2021
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The Ten Year Treasury yield......boogeyman......is now back in the box. The yield is 1.563. Move on....nothing to see here.....as usual.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well....for the next three days we will be in construction hell with the DEMO and Installation of new counter-tops and backsplash.

    Worst case.....we should be done by the end of the week. NOT looking forward to it.....but....it should go smoothly........the fabricator does about 1000 kitchens per year and has been in business for 20+ years.
     
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I had not been paying much attention to the markets today.....so.....I was surprised when I looked at my account and saw it was nicely in the green. My down stocks to start the day.....Amazon and Tesla.....everything else nicely UP.

    I NOW see that ALL of the primary averages are UP for the day.

    I was busy pulling the remaining plugs and switches from my backsplash before the fabricator gets here
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Of course Tesla is down today due to the recent Musk tweet regarding the Hertz deal and the fact that no contract has been signed yet.

    Tesla Shares Decline After Musk Tweet on Lack of Hertz Contract

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-squanders-300-billion-gain-102015624.html

    This is a perfect example of a little......one day....news story that will have little to no impact going forward.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For those that want a......rationalization......to invest in Cayman Island shell companies that are a proxy for Chinese companies......and......partner with the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship.

    China is starting to look less scary to investors

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/02/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "London (CNN Business) For investors, the appeal of China has always been clear. Despite a long list of political risks, it's the world's second-largest economy — home to a massive pool of consumers and the fastest expansion of the middle class in history.

    But in the past 12 months, there's been a significant shift.

    What's happening: One year ago this week, Ant Group halted its highly-anticipated stock market debut following a meeting between billionaire co-founder Jack Ma and Chinese regulators. In the months that followed, Beijing ramped up efforts to curb the power of some of the country's most powerful companies, from online shopping behemoth Alibaba to ride-sharing platform Didi. The campaign has wiped out trillions of dollars in market value.

    That crackdown has forced money managers to ask tough questions. Chief among them: Is the market still the blockbuster bet they thought it would be?

    Apprehension remains about what President Xi Jinping will do next as he pursues a national campaign for "common prosperity." But after a tumultuous year, some of the anxiety is wearing off.

    "Sentiment is starting to recover ... on signs Beijing is attempting to strike a balance between stabilizing growth and pursuing structural adjustments," Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note to clients this week. "We believe Chinese equities are close to the bottom now."

    See here: Last quarter, Chinese stocks suffered their worst three-month period since 2015, plunging over 18%, Haefele noted. But in October, the MSCI China index rose 3%, ending four consecutive months of losses. Alibaba's stock, which has been particularly hard hit, jumped almost 15%.

    The change in mood is largely attributable to expectations that the Chinese government will moderate efforts to reform private companies to avoid exacerbating an economic pullback.

    The country's output grew at its slowest pace in a year last quarter, expanding just 4.9%. Compared to the prior quarter, the economy grew only 0.2% in the July-to-September period — one of the weakest quarters since China started publishing such records in 2011.

    A government survey of manufacturing activity released over the weekend fell for a second straight month. There are also worries that the country's massive property sector could buckle under its huge debt loads.

    That's boosting expectations that policymakers will act aggressively to inject stimulus into the economy to help it stabilize.
    But the clouds haven't cleared entirely. Haefele notes that "near-term market volatility may remain high." In Bank of America's most recent survey of global fund managers, the situation in China was identified as the second biggest market risk, behind only inflation.


    On the radar: An energy crunch hammering China could dictate how the situation unfolds. So could its approach to dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic.

    As countries around the world gradually open up, China is still working to eradicate Covid-19 from inside its borders. On Sunday evening, Shanghai Disneyland went into a snap lockdown following a single confirmed case. Tens of thousands of visitors and staff were forced to undergo coronavirus testing before they were allowed to leave the park."

    MY COMMENT

    You know what I think by now......I will NOT invest in Chinese companies. It is bad enough that many of the companies that I own......American companies......are significantly entrenched in China. I have no desire to have my money at risk and partnered with the Chinese Communist dictatorship.

    But....others may have a different opinion. If so....have at it. Everyone has to invest as they choose.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is a little article on what is happening and "might" impact the markets today. Looks like the head line is a bit out of touch....since ALL of the major averages are in the green at the moment.

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks hover near breakeven as market awaits Fed; Tesla drops

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-2-2021-222213675.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks hovered near the unchanged market on Tuesday after a record-setting session, with investors keeping their powder dry ahead of a closely-watched policy decision by the Federal Reserve.

    On Tuesday, blue chip shares rose modestly, but tech stocks dipped, weighed by a drop in Tesla (TSLA) after CEO Elon Musk downplayed the expected impact of a deal with car rental giant Hertz.

    Each of the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq rallied to fresh highs on Monday as more corporate earnings results exceeded expectations and defied concerns over ongoing supply chain constraints, shortages and cost pressures.

    Clorox (CLX) became one of the latest major names to top estimates in results posted Monday after the closing bell, with the cleaning supplies and home goods company topping third-quarter sales and profits estimates and reaffirming its full-year guidance even as the company said it expects "cost pressures to persist." Shares of Avis (CAR) and Simon Property Group (SPG) also jumped, with both of these companies posting quarterly earnings that exceeded expectations after market close.

    Heading into this week, the expected earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 was at 36.6% for the third quarter, which while a step down from the second quarter's rate, would still mark the third-highest pace in data spanning back to 2010, according to FactSet.

    "I don't think what's going on is terribly surprising," when it comes to the sizable year-over-year earnings growth many companies have reported for the third quarter, Pacer ETF's President Sean O'Hara told Yahoo Finance Live. "I think what we need to see going forward is, is it sustainable, or are some of these outside factors going to be a bigger challenge than we expect?"

    "Is inflation and the input costs that the producers are dealing with, is that going to derail things? Is the lack of workers?" he added. "There're a lot of things out there that could potentially derail the market, especially as you're making this transition from where we are, which is easy comparables versus last year, to more difficult ones going forward."

    In addition to the solid backdrop of corporate earnings, an ongoing economic recovery and still-accommodative positioning by monetary policymakers have also helped underpin equities in their march to new highs. For investors, the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday will help suggest how long the central bank will maintain its current levels of support. Many pundits expect to see the bank begin to pull back the asset purchases that comprised its quantitative easing program that had helped support the recovery, with fresh economic data reflecting a U.S. economy closing in on pre-pandemic conditions.

    "We think that better days are ahead. Earnings are still growing at a pretty healthy clip. There's a lot of people focusing on peak growth rates. That's probably not the way to look at it," Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo senior global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live. "From our standpoint, those low interest rates, still stimulative policy and really strong growth are what set the stage for strong equities in the next year."

    9:42 a.m. ET: Tesla gives back some gains as Musk plays down Hertz deal

    The carmaker's high-flying stock is under pressure in early trading, after Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla has not yet signed on the dotted line with Hertz, which announced a deal last week to add Model 3s to its fleet of rentals. Musk also stated that regardless, the deal would have "zero impact" on Tesla's bottom line.

    But Hertz said it’s already receiving cars under its plan to add 100,000 Tesla EVs through 2022, but didn't respond directly to Musk's remark:

    As we announced last week, Hertz has made an initial order of 100,000 Tesla electric vehicles by the end of 2022 and is investing in new EV charging infrastructure across the company's global operations. Deliveries of the Teslas already have started, and consumer reaction to our commitment to lead in electrification has been beyond our expectations."

    MY COMMENT

    A SOLID market today. Not much going on that is going to have any DRAMATIC impact today. OBVIOUSLY....the FED meeting and releases later in the week will have a bit of short term impact potential.

    To me....today....seems sort of like a BLAH market day....but my portfolio is telling a different....more positive....story.
     
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  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    LOTS of companies reporting this week......nearly 1400 companies. We are in the GUTS and BREAD & BUTTER of the earnings now. What happens over the next 2-3 weeks will determine the general view of the business world and the economy.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A nice MEDIUM gain today. I had 8 stocks up and 2 stocks down and a good GREEN day. I also got a beat on the SP500 by .40%.

    My best winners today were......Microsoft +1.14%....Costco +1.04%.....Nvidia +2.22%.......and.....Google +1.35%. My two losers today were Amazon and Tesla. At least Tesla backed off from some of it's losses as the day went on.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For someone that has short term "SAFE" money and is wondering what to do with it for ONE year or more....this might be a good option.

    The little-known type of bond that's paying 7.12% in interest right now

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-little-known-type-of-bond-everyones-talking-about-191555371.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
    "The personal finance community has been buzzing this week about a little-known type of government-backed savings bond paying as much as the stock market usually pays over the long-term: A mouth-watering 7.12% that’s pretty much as safe as anything out there.

    They’re called Series I savings bonds and the government sets the rate of interest for these bonds every six months based on inflation, so people have until April 2022 to take advantage of this rate.

    Series I savings bonds you buy between now and the end of April 2022 will earn interest for the first six months at an annual rate of 7.12%,according to the Treasury Department’s FAQ. “That’s the second-highest rate ever!” (The S&P 500 index is up almost 25% this year, but you’re dealing with more risk there.)

    The reason why these bonds are so much higher than usual — previously, they made headlines in a Wall Street Journal column in May when they were at 3.54% — is because of inflation.

    Transient or not, the current inflation benchmark for these bonds is the consumer price index in urban areas (CPI-U), which measures how much people in urban areas pay for a "market basket of consumer goods and services." Compared to last year, it’s up 5.4% (not seasonally adjusted) and the Treasury Department has adjusted its rates on Series I bonds accordingly.

    “I-Bonds are definitely a hot story right now and with Social Security set for an almost 6% cost-of-living adjustment next year, it’s not surprising that bonds tied to inflation are seeing a hefty yield,” said Brett Horowitz, CFP and wealth manager at Evensky & Katz/Foldes Financial Wealth Management in Coral Gables, Fla.

    Horowitz isn’t sure how long these rates will last. “The Fed keeps using the term transitory to signal their belief that it’s a short-term phenomenon,” he said. “If the Fed is right, the rate will come down rather quickly.”

    However, Horowitz added, the rates have stayed high and don’t seem to be slowing down.

    These bonds are curious, because investors can buy them directly through the Treasury’s website, Treasury Direct, rather than through financial advisors or brokerage accounts, which the WSJ pointed out as one reason why they’re relatively unknown.

    Here are a few things investors should know about these bonds
    • You can cash out the Series I bond after one year and get interest. If you cash out before you get zero interest, just your money back.

    • If an investor cashes out before five years, they lose the previous three-month period’s interest as a penalty. (So you’d get nine months of interest if you hold for a year).

    • You can only buy up to $10,000 worth of Series I bonds per calendar year, and only $5,000 if they’re paper bonds rather than electronic ones via the Treasury’s website.

    • Investors can hold the bond for up to 30 years; they’ll continue to accrue interest every three months.
    • The Treasury announces new rates every six months. The announcement for the next six-month period is in April 2022.
    • Investors pay federal income taxes on any profits.
    So if you invested the maximum amount of $10,000 for a year, and, say, the interest rate didn’t change in April, you would end up with around $530 if you cash out after a year, after a penalty of around $175.

    While that example illustrates the three-month penalty, Horowitz noted that it’s very possible that the next six months will look different — when we find out the interest rate for those six months in April

    “Who knows what that rate will be come April of 2022? I-Bonds have a fixed rate and an inflation adjustment and the fixed rate is 0%,” Horowitz said. “So if inflation does come down to 1-2%, that rate will plummet. In fact, the rate set in November of last year was 1.68%, so we could see that again fairly soon.”

    This is in CD-territory, and one of the reasons why people don’t use these bonds much is because jumping from one bank to another (chasing CD interest rates) and then to the Treasury can be kind of a pain, Horowitz said.

    With all that being said, if someone came to me and said ‘is this a good idea?’ I would validate their strategy and have no qualms about recommending it,” he said. “But I would probably bring down their optimism a little bit because it’s not like they can take $100,000 and make 7% for the next 20 years.”"

    MY COMMENT

    For the right person with money........that is "NO RISK" money......these bonds might be good option. From this article I assume you could put in $10,000 for 2021 and immediately after January 1........$10,000 for 2022......and get the rate above for AT LEAST 6 months.

    If a person thinks that inflation is going to last for longer than 6 months.....perhaps 12-18 months.....this might be a good way to lock up some SAFE MONEY and earn a good rate. So....if someone was going to need to park up to $20,000 for perhaps 12-18 months this might be a good option.

    I had a Treasury Direct account once. It is a government account where you can buy bonds and Treasuries.

    I am NOT recommending this....just putting it out there as an option......so do your own research. I do like that it is a USA government issue.
     
    Jwalker likes this.
  20. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    So if you invested the maximum amount of $10,000 for a year, and, say, the interest rate didn’t change in April, you would end up with around $530 if you cash out after a year, after a penalty of around $175.

    -----

    i can scalp that in a few days. but, then i can lose it, too.

    edit: oh wait, you did say short term safe money. carry on.
     
    #8240 emmett kelly, Nov 2, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2021
    JaysonW likes this.

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