The Long Term Investor

Here is the other one today.

Lowe’s tops estimates as customers invest more in bigger home projects, retailer lifts sales forecast

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/lowes-low-q3-2021-earnings.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Lowe’s beat expectations for fiscal third-quarter earnings, as it got a boost from online sales and business from home professionals.
• The home improvement retailer’s same-store sales rose by 2.2% in the three-month period, despite analysts predicting a decline.
• CEO Marvin Ellison said sales to home pros, such as electricians and contractors, rose 16% in the third quarter.

Lowe’s beat analysts’ expectations for fiscal third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, as the company got a bump in business from home professionals and online sales.

The home improvement retailer raised its forecast, saying it anticipates $95 billion in sales. It had previously predicted revenue of $92 billion.

Shares rose more than 3% early Wednesday and touched a 52-week high of $255.22.

Here’s what the company reported for the fiscal third quarter ended Oct. 29 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

• Earnings per share: $2.73 vs. $2.36 expected
• Revenue: $22.92 billion vs. $22.06 billion expected

Lowe’s profits rose to$1.90 billion, or $2.73 per share, from $692 million, or 91 cents a share, a year earlier. The results outmatched the $2.36 per share expected by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.

Net sales climbed to $22.92 billion from $22.31 billion last year and were higher than analysts’ expectations of $22.06 billion.

Lowe’s same-store sales grew by 2.2% in the three-month period. That was a sharp difference from analysts’ prediction of a 1.5% decline, according to StreetAccount.

Focus on home pros
A strong housing market — and a wave of bigger projects — has lifted sales for Lowe’s and its rival, Home Depot. Even as prices rise on houses and construction materials, Americans have continued to buy. Homebuilder confidence surged this week, due to the big appetite for new single-family homes.

The retailers also saw customers shop for paint, throw pillows and more as they spent more time at home and tackled do-it-yourself projects during the pandemic.

As consumers get out and about again, Lowe’s and Home Depot are increasingly trying to woo the home professionals that homeowners hire to tackle renovations or redo their kitchens.

Home Depot’s third-quarter earnings reflected that shift, as customer transactions dropped but average tickets rose by 12.9% to $82.38. The retailer said momentum has continued into the fourth quarter, with sales starting slightly higher than third-quarter levels.

Under CEO Marvin Ellison, Lowe’s has stepped up efforts to attract pros, since they are steadier and bigger spenders. It has a loyalty program for pros and added perks like parking for larger vehicles, free phone charging stations and air stations for refilling tires.

Sales growth among pros outpaced the rate for do-it-yourself sales in the third quarter — a reflection of pandemic trends reversing. Comparable sales to pros rose over 16% in the third quarter and more than 43% on a two-year basis.

Consumer transactions declined 7.5% in the three-month period, as there were lower sales of smaller ticket, do-it-yourself customers and was a drop in lumber sales, Chief Financial Officer Dave Denton said on the earnings call.

Average ticket increased nearly 10% over the year-ago period as more consumers bought appliances and flooring and the price of some items like copper rose due to inflation, Denton said.

Digital sales jumped by 25% in the third quarter.

Lowe’s also said it plans to buy back $3 billion in shares in the fourth quarter, bringing total repurchases for the year to $12 billion. It bought back 13.7 million of its own stock for $2.9 billion during the latest quarter.

Tapping a new market
The retailer is also kicking off a new initiative, called Livable Home, to become a “one-stop shop” for baby boomers who want to age in place. It is training employees, adding resource guides and increasing inventory to cater to seniors who may have less mobility or want to add features to their homes for safety, such as grab bars in the shower. It launched the effort in collaboration with nonprofit AARP.

Ellison said that market represents about $32 million in sales.

In an interview with CNBC, Ellison said the idea was inspired by his own experience of trying to retrofit his father’s home with features like a walk-in bath tub and wheelchair ramp.

“Even as a CEO of a home improvement company, it was extremely difficult to get those things done,” he said. “It dawned on me that if my Dad is having these issues and I’m the CEO of a home improvement company, then the greater baby boomer population and caretakers must also have the same issue.”"

MY COMMENT

ALSO strong earnings for the quarter. The one thing that would significantly bother me if I was an owner of this company is the 7.5% DECLINE in consumer transactions and the drop in lumber sales. But that is probably nit-picking. Hopefully that is not a TREND.

 

HERE is a pretty good summary of the markets today.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks dip, drifting below records after Target, Lowe's earnings

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-17-2021-231252389.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks were mostly lower Wednesday to hover below record levels, as investors digested a set of solid corporate earnings results from more major retailers.

The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were slightly lower. Tesla (TSLA) shares bucked the trend of the market and extended gains, after jumping 4% on Tuesday. Peloton (PTON) shares fell after surging by nearly 16% on Tuesday in its best day since May 2020, after the company announced a secondary stock offering that would net more than $1 billion.

Despite the mild pullback on Wednesday, stocks remained close to record levels. Better-than-expected economic data, with retail sales growing by the most since March in October, and strong earnings results from major companies including Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) helped buoy the broader markets in recent sessions. The latest earnings results from Target (TGT) and Lowe's (LOW) on Wednesday showed continued strength, albeit alongside some lingering concerns over the impacts of supply-side disruptions and rising input costs.

Target posted better-than-expected third-quarter sales and earnings per share as customer traffic picked up both in-stores and online, but the report also showed that supply chain snarls and rising labor costs were weighing on margins. This echoed tones from Walmart executives, who during their earnings call on Tuesday also said that they were "seeing inflationary cost pressures in some areas" but were working with suppliers to "manage margins appropriately." Lowe's, meanwhile, posted stronger-than-expected sales and raised its full-year revenue guidance, suggesting demand for home-improvement projects was holding up.

The general strength of corporate earnings for the latest quarter has helped investors at least temporarily look beyond concerns over still-elevated inflation. And indeed, some of the growth in Tuesday's retail sales report likely stemmed from rising prices, given that the Commerce Department reports retail sales nominally.

Despite these inflationary concerns and the potential impacts of rising prices on corporate profits and spending, stocks have hovered near record highs. The S&P 500 was within 0.5% of its all-time intraday high by Tuesday's close. And according to some strategists, these moves suggest markets may be warming to the notion that inflationary pressures will ultimately moderate below current levels.

“The markets generally are looking at it benignly – they are not discounting some longer-term inflation of more than, let’s say, 2.5%,” Steven Wieting, Citi Global Wealth chief investment strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live. “You can see this in the pricing out on the yield curve of Treasuries. You can see this in the composition of the market with growth stocks not really being beaten down by any concerns about some lurch higher, tightening of monetary policy. We think that story is largely correct – it’s benign for markets. It doesn’t mean we get to repeat the returns the past year, however.”

10:30 a.m. ET: Biden asks FTC to investigate 'evidence of anti-consumer behavior by oil and gas companies'
President Joe Biden on Wednesday sent a letter to the Federal Trade Commission requesting that the agency investigate "mounting evidence of anti-consumer behavior by oil and gas companies," according to the letter.

The move comes just days after Biden said combatting rising prices was a "top priority" for him, after the Consumer Price Index for October showed consumer price inflation rose at the fastest annual rate in over three decades last month. A jump in energy prices contributed heavily to the top-line gain.

"Prices at the pump have continued to rise, even as refined fuel costs go down and industry profits go up," Biden said in the letter to the FTC. "I do not accept hard-working Americans paying more for gas because of anti-competitive or otherwise potentially illegal conduct."

Energy prices have surged so far in 2021 as vaccinations and reopenings took place and stoked consumer mobility and fuel demand. West Texas intermediate crude oil prices have jumped by nearly 65% for the year-to-date, but fell by more than 1% Wednesday morning.

9:07 a.m. ET: Housing starts unexpectedly dropped in October while permits rose
U.S. housing starts fell for a back-to-back month in October as rising materials costs and labor shortages weighed on homebuilding. Building permits rose, however, in an upbeat sign of the prospects of future home construction.

Residential starts were down by 0.7% in October compared to September, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.520 million. This was the lowest level for housing starts since February. Consensus economists had been looking for a 1.5% rise in starts, according to Bloomberg data. Starts for September were also downwardly revised to post a 2.7% drop, compared to the 1.6% decline previously reported.

Building permits, however, rebounded by a greater-than-expected margin, rising by 4.0% in October versus the 2.8% rise anticipated. This came following a 7.8% monthly decline during the previous month."

7:31 a.m. ET: Mortgage applications dropped last week as rates moved higher
An index tracking mortgage application volume decreased last week after rising during the prior period, with a rising rate environment deterring some looking to buy and refinance.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly market composite index of mortgage loan application volume fell 2.8% during the week ended Nov. 12. This followed a 5.5% rise during the previous week. Refinances decreased by 5% compared to the previous week and by 31% compared to the same week a year ago. Purchases increased 2% week-on-week on a seasonally adjusted basis, but unadjusted, fell by the same margin and dropped by 6% compared to the same week last year.

"Refinance applications decreased for the seventh time in eight weeks, as mortgage rates moved higher after two weeks of declines," Joel Kan, MBA associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said in a statement. "Activity has been particularly sensitive to rate movements, and last week's decline was driven by a drop in conventional and FHA refinance applications, which offset an increase in VA refinance applications." "

MY COMMENT

All in all we are starting the day today with nice earnings and nice economic data. The markets just dont care.....probably reflecting short term trading and the anticipation of the Nvidia earnings today. I think the averages have a good shot at being positive or at worst mixed by the end of the day. there is just too much POSITIVE "stuff" out there right now.

 

As I expressed on here recently.....I think we are in for a VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS SEASON for business and the markets. I dont believe the negative coverage I have seen toward the shopping season due to supply chain. I believe we will see VERY STRONG sales leading up to Christmas. I think the article below is RIGHT ON......but.....WRONG on the focus on the wealthy. there is still a HUGE amount of money sloshing around out there for ALL income levels. Many people STILL have a big chunk of their extra $2400 per month stimulus money, many people have their $350 per month per kid which will continue to year end. wages are up and jobs are going begging. I say.....shopping will start early and stay STRONG right up to the end.

It could be a very festive season for big stores and the wealthy

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/17/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Heading into the all-important holiday shopping season, investors have been nursing a big concern: Will supply chain issues lead to empty shelves, making it impossible for retailers to take advantage of huge demand for toys, appliances and other items as the economy recovers from the pandemic?

The answer appears to be no — at least if you're a massive company like Walmart (WMT) or Home Depot.
What's happening: Large retail chains have chartered their own ships to deliver goods from Asia, stocked up on extra merchandise and relied on their deep pockets and broad catalogue of suppliers to ease the bottlenecks.

The strategy appears to be working. Walmart just reported that in the three months through October, sales at US stores open for at least a year increased 9.2% over the same period in 2020. The company boosted its full-year sales guidance. Home Depot (HD) said that same-store sales rose more than 6% globally and 5.5% in the United States.

"We took a lot of steps early in the year to try to get ahead of what we thought could be some congestion and some other supply chain pressures," John Furner, Walmart's US CEO, told analysts on Tuesday.

Walmart's inventory levels increased 11.5% last quarter from the year prior as the company stocked up in anticipation of the holiday stretch.

Its shares initially rose on Tuesday but finished down 2.6%. Home Depot's stock rallied 5.7%.

Step back: The results are a reminder that smaller retailers without the ability to charter vessels or hoard shipping containers could bear the brunt of the shipping crisis that's developed this year, while bigger firms like Walmart can throw money at the problem.
Soaring inflation, which is increasing at the fastest rate in three decades in the United States and is at a 10-year high in the United Kingdom , is making shoppers uneasy. The consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan fell to a decade low in early November.

So far, data indicates that shoppers are still hungry to spend as retailers dangle early deals in an attempt to front-load demand. US retail sales rose 1.7% in October compared to the previous month, the biggest gain since March.

Yet once again, not everyone is impacted equally. Holiday spending is expected to average $1,463 per household, up 5% from 2020, according to a survey from Deloitte published last month. But the consulting firm predicts huge discrepancies in spending among income groups.

"There is a tale of two holiday seasons, with higher-income households planning to spend five times that of lower-income households," Deloitte said. "Indeed, the majority of this season's gains will be driven by higher-income shoppers who expect to spend 15% more than last year."

Big picture: Just as big stores are better able to weather higher costs, so too are households with more cash on hand for discretionary purchases. And if inflation keeps climbing, it could worsen that divide.

"While spending remains robust, we believe elevated [consumer price inflation] as well as higher gas prices could limit overall volumes this holiday season as purchasing power decreases," Bank of America's analysts said in a recent research note.

The deadline to raise the US debt limit is coming up

The US government is set to run out of money on December 15 if Congress doesn't take steps to raise the country's debt limit.
That's the latest warning from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday.
"There are scenarios in which Treasury would be left with insufficient remaining resources to continue to finance the operations of the US Government beyond this date," Yellen said.

Remember: The December deadline comes after Congress approved a short-term extension of the nation's debt limit in October following dire warnings from Yellen about the economic fallout that would ensue if the issue went unaddressed.

But now that President Joe Biden has signed into law a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package , attention is shifting back to government finances.

It's unclear how Democrats will proceed. Republican leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have repeatedly stated they will not help with legislation to raise the debt limit. Democrats have argued the issue is a bipartisan responsibility.
Yellen cautioned that the situation is quickly becoming urgent again.

"To ensure the full faith and credit of the United States, it is critical that Congress raise or suspend the debt limit as soon as possible," she said.

Investor insight: For all the brinkmanship, Wall Street is expecting Congress will do what's necessary to avert a US default — a "code red" situation that could result in a recession.

"For investors, the message is the same: Debt ceiling worries will resurface, but we believe Congress will once again avoid walking over the cliff," BTIG's Isaac Boltansky said in a recent note to clients.

Wall Street bonuses are set to surge this year

The stock market has been hitting record highs. Unicorn startups are making their public debuts at a record clip. And many big companies are tapping piles of cash for big-ticket acquisitions.

Behind the curtain is Wall Street's investment bankers, who are expecting big increases in their bonus checks as a result of the action.

Consultancy Johnson Associates is forecasting a surge in bonuses for financial service professionals from a year ago, when many on Wall Street took home slimmer checks as the pandemic weighed on the global economy and dealmaking, my CNN Business colleague Paul R. La Monica reports.

"Virtually all financial services industry segments, including investment banking, asset management and alternative investments are performing at record levels," Alan Johnson of Johnson Associates said in a report. "This, in turn, will translate into incentive award increases we haven't seen in the industry since before the Great Recession," he added.

Investment banking advisers and equity traders are both expected to see 20% to 25% jumps in their bonuses compared to 2020, while those underwriting stock issuance could get bonus increases of 30% to 35%.

Remember: Wall Street is raking in huge sums of money as companies try to take advantage of the market boom. Last quarter, Goldman Sachs brought in $3.7 billion in investment banking fees, the second-highest haul on record. During the same period, Citi logged its best quarter for mergers and acquisitions in a decade.

As profits leap, workers across the pay spectrum are demanding more. At Goldman, total compensation, which includes salary and bonuses, came to an average of more than $336,000 per employee during the first nine months of the year.""

MY COMMENT

Yes....the evil wealthy people. ACTUALLY...just about everything in this little article is POSITIVE. It is actually the spending and investing by the wealthy that drives job creation and economic profits and success. A rising tide DOES lift all boats. The BIG bonuses on wall street are a GOOD sign for the markets and the economy.

As to the government debt limit.....a TOTAL NON-ISSUE. The classic fear mongering issue to raise by the media any time they want to put a bit of fear out there. GUESS WHAT.......this dire stuff.....NEVER HAPPENS.

BUT......I do agree with the BASIC concept fo this little article......it will be an EPIC Christmas season for business and the economy.

 

MANY investors that have been involved in the markets for a long time know very well that the stock markets are NOT the economy. I have seen the economy and stocks disconnected many times over my investing life. As a result....I dont pay much attention to the general economy....especially when picking a stock to buy or a stock to sell.

The Stock Market Is Not the Economy

https://compoundadvisors.com/2021/the-stock-market-is-not-the-econo

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US economic growth contracted 2.3% in 2020, the worst year for the economy since 2008.


Did that hurt the stock market?


Not at all. The S&P 500 gained 18%, well above its historical average return of 10%.


2020 wasn’t the first time we’ve seen a higher stock market in spite of an economic downturn. The same thing happened in 8 other years since 1930…


What about the opposite situation? Has the stock market ever declined when the economy has grown? Yes, we’ve seen that happen 18 times, most recently in 2018.


On a calendar-year basis since 1930, there’s a 0.25 correlation between the S&P 500’s total return and the change in real GDP. That translates to an r squared of .06 which in plain English means that only 6% of the variation in the S&P 500 from year-to-year can be explained by changes in economic growth.


That’s not to say that stocks and the economy haven’t both moved higher over long periods of time. That’s certainly been the case…


Powered by YCharts
But in any given year it’s impossible to predict how one variable (the economy) is going to impact the other (stocks).

Why are stocks not moving precisely in tandem with the economy?


For one thing, stocks tend to be a leading indicator of the economy. That means in years like 2020 when growth was negative, stocks were looking ahead to better growth to come (we’re on pace for 6% real GDP growth in 2021).


It also means that in years like 2000, when growth was positive, stocks were looking ahead to weaker growth (recession began in March 2001).

Where this gets complicated is that stock returns are frequently not telling you anything important about the economy, but instead simply reflecting changing investor sentiment. At times investors will pay more for a given level of earnings and at other times they will pay less. What’s going on in the economy is just one factor in that determination.


Powered by YCharts
Stocks are ultimately a reflection of what investors are willing to pay today for a stream of long-term corporate earnings, which is not nearly the same thing as changes in short-term economic growth.


Hence, the stock market is not the economy. Understanding that as an investor is critical.

MY COMMENT

YES......there is a tendency for some investors to equate the markets and the general economy. In reality......what really matters is the fundamental business results of the specific companies that an investor owns.

 

I am seeing a big reduction of real estate for sale lately in my local little market of 4200 homes. We were siting at about 19 listings for a few months now. Starting a couple of weeks ago I started to notice the number of listings falling....first to 12.....and now....to ONLY 9 homes available.

Perhaps the holiday season is discouraging new listings.....perhaps not. It seems that the market is STILL very strong and obviously inventory is CRITICALLY LOW. I do notice that there has been a definite......small increase..... in the number of pending sales that are "contingent".

I FULLY expect that after the first of the year the MASSIVE BULL MARKET in real property will continue. I see NOTHING that would indicate that the HOT market or the big price increases is over in this area.

 

Nvidia seeing a bit of a sell off as we wait for earnings after the bell today. The stock is currently down by $7.48 or 2.48%. I am still nicely green for the day.....this stock is the primary drag on my portfolio today.

I am not really concerned about earnings....especially long term. I do believe that the ARM merger is tenuous....perhaps a 50/50 shot.

Nvidia’s $40 billion takeover of chip designer Arm faces a UK national security probe

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/16/nvidias-arm-takeover-faces-uk-national-security-inquiry.html

Nvidia's Unlikely ARM Acquisition: What Should Investors Know

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4469665-nvidias-unlikely-arm-acquisition-what-should-investors-know

The article above states:

"It is already well known that European regulars have raised concerns about the deal and have indicated they will be doing an in-depth review of the deal. More recently the UK is said to have shown a similar intent. What is worse is that China has not even taken up on the deal and, over a year after the deal's announcement, there is no indication that China will even consider the deal. Note that AMD's deal to announce Xilinx (XLNX), which was announced a month after Nvidia's ARM deal, is estimated to close by the end of this year. As things stand, even if the UK and Europe approve, it is highly unlikely that China will agree to a US company acquiring ARM given the widespread use of ARM in China's hardware ecosystem and, especially, given the status of the US-China relationship. The regulatory risk makes this deal improbable and the likelihood of the deal closing before the September deadline is probably less than 1% -- if ever. We can be nearly certain that Nvidia will end up losing the break fee and walking from the deal or alternately making a revised agreement under different terms. As suggested in the article referenced above, a strategic investment is likely. The purpose of this investment would be for the benefits stated above. An equity stake from Nvidia, instead of outright ownership, eliminates regulatory risk and would make ARM much less poisonous to customers. ARM could promote Nvidia IP without losing its independence and continuing to keep its core CPU IP attractive to many players."


MY COMMENT

Who knows how this merger will end up. I will say....IT IS ABSOLUTE INSANITY.....if we allow Chinese regulators to have......ANY......say on this question.

 

Wowie Zowie.........Yippie Ka-Ya Mother........whoops...... this is a "G" rated board.....so NEVER MIND.

I was in the green today.....by 0.01%. BUT....hey....green is green. At least I got a good beat on the SP500 by 0.27%. Nvidia pulled me down today. I had 6 of 10 positions in the green.

 

Here it is........the Nvidia earnings release today.

Nvidia data center sales grew 55% on demand for artificial intelligence chip

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/nvidia-nvda-earnings-q3-2022.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Nvidia reported third fiscal quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday.
• Nvidia stock has been on a big run over the past year, with shares up more than 123% so far year-to-date.

Nvidia stock rose over 3% after the reported earnings on Wednesday for its third fiscal quarter that beat expectations for both earnings and sales.

The company also issued a bullish forecast for revenue in the current quarter ending in January.

Here’s how it did versus Refinitiv consensus expectations for the quarter ending Oct. 31:

• Earnings: $1.17, adjusted, versus $1.11 expected, up 60% year-over-year
• Revenue: $7.10 billion, versus $6.82 billion expected, up 50% year-over-year

Nvidia said it expects to report around $7.4 billion in the current quarter, ending in January, higher than analyst expectations of $6.86 billion.

Nvidia stock has been on a big run, with shares up more than 124% so far year-to-date. The company has had more demand than it can fill, especially for its hard-to-find GeForce graphics cards that are popular with gamers.

The company has made significant gains in data centers, where cloud providers and big enterprises are turning to the kind of graphics processors made by Nvidia for artificial intelligence applications.

Nvidia reported $2.9 billion in data center sales, up 55% from $1.9 billion in the same quarter last year. Nvidia CFO Colette Kress wrote that the growth was driven by GPU sales to “hyperscale customers,” an industry term that means cloud providers such as Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud.

Kress said customers are using the chips for tasks like understanding human speech and crunching data to offer customer recommendations.

Gaming, Nvidia’s biggest market, reported $3.2 billion in sales, up 42% from $2.27 billion in the same quarter last year. The company said it was primarily due to increased sales of its GeForce consumer graphics processors, but the company said supply remained limited.

Nvidia’s gaming graphics cards now have software that prevents them from being used for cryptocurrency mining, the company said. Nvidia introduced dedicated graphics cards for crypto mining earlier this year to help meet some of the demand. Nvidia said it sold $105 million in cryptocurrency-specific graphics cards, down from $266 million in the quarter ending in August.

Nvidia’s automotive business remains a small part of its sales even as rival chipmakers invest heavily in the hopes it becomes a multi-billion dollar market in the next decade.

Nvidia said automotive sales were $135 million, which was up 8% annually, but down 11% from the previous quarter. Nvidia said that the sequential decline was because automakers had other supply constraints, but that self-driving programs using its processors continue to ramp up.

Nvidia’s professional visualization product line grew 144% annually to $577 million. That business is primarily high-end graphics processors for professionals. The segment continues to grow as firms buy powerful laptop workstations for their staff to use at home.

Last week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang suggested the company could be one of the main suppliers for technology companies building the “metaverse,” or a virtual world that some believe will be home to increasing amounts of commerce, recreation and advertising. Nvidia also introduced new software products called “Omniverse Enterprise” that can be used to create virtual characters, interpret speech and create new 3D worlds.

Nvidia is in the process of purchasing Arm, a British vendor for core mobile semiconductor technology. The European Commission opened an in-depth investigation of the transaction last month.

In its filing on Wednesday, CFO Kress said that the U.S. FTC had expressed concerns about the transactions and that the company was in talks with the regulator to address those concerns.

“Although regulators and some Arm licensees have expressed concerns or objected to the transaction, we continue to believe in the merits and benefits of the acquisition to Arm, its licensees, and the industry,” the company said in its third-quarter earnings report.

Nvidia said it paid $100 million in dividends during the quarter."

MY COMMENT

BLOW OUT earnings by Nvidia. Hopefully this will satisfy the NIT-PICKING markets. The data center gains are particularly nice to see....recognition of the power of the Nvidia product by customers that should know what they are talking about. Gaming numbers were also outstanding.......+42% is a big number.

This company is on fire....and.....looks like it will continue. After the bell they are now DOWN by 3%......dont blame me, I dont know anything. What they reported looks GREAT to me.

 

THIS is an interesting survey on the topic of Inflation by Bank Of America.

Big money investors growing more optimistic inflation is 'transitory'
Sixty-one percent of survey respondents say inflation is temporary: Bank of America

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets...owing-more-optimistic-inflation-is-transitory

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Big money investors are growing less worried over inflation, according to a survey conducted by Bank of America.

Money managers are "convinced inflation [is] transitory," wrote Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America.

Sixty-one percent of respondents to Bank of America’s Fund Manager Survey in November said inflation was "transitory," representing a three percentage point increase from September. Thirty-five percent of those surveyed said inflation is "permanent."

This while a net 14% said inflation will fall to the lowest level since March 2020.

The drop in inflation expectations comes as investors raise their expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes next year. Thirty-nine percent of respondents expect two rate hikes in 2022, up from 24% in October. Seventy-six percent believe at least one rate hike will occur next year.

As rate hike expectations increase and investors grow more optimistic that inflation is transitory, expectations for a steepening yield curve decline. A net 9% of investors said the yield curve will steepen, the lowest since February 2019.

Fewer worries over inflation provoked investors to deploy cash sitting on the sidelines into U.S. stocks, which investors are now a net 29% overweight, the most since August 2013. Investors raised their allocations to consumer discretionary and technology while reducing holdings in inflation assets like energy and banks.

Respondents were most bearish on bonds with a net overweight of -69%.

Inflation (33%) and central bank rate hikes (22%) were seen as the biggest "tail risks." Long tech (37%) was considered the "most crowded trade," edging out long bitcoin (21%). Most investors expect bitcoin’s price to remain between $50,000 and $75,000 over the next 12 months.

The Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender surveyed 345 participants with $1.2 trillion in assets under management between Nov. 5 and Nov. 11. The survey was conducted before the October consumer price index report showed annual inflation was 6.2%, the highest in 31 years.

MY COMMENT

I agree with the survey personally......by way of disclosure.....as if there is anyone on here that does not know this. Not that people that manage........$1.2TRILLION in assets......know anything.

 

It is a little early.....but.....who cares......my prediction for the SP500 in 2022 is a GAIN of +18.5%. I will adjust this number if needed by the start of the new year. Here is one of the first little articles that I have seen from one of the BIG BOYS on what they expect.

The bull market will continue in 2022: Goldman Sachs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-bull-market-will-continue-in-2022-goldman-sachs-115009438.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The investing landscape will likely be much different in 2022 than 2021, but the backdrop is still fertile for more gains on the S&P 500, according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman said Tuesday it expects the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to rise 9% to 5,100 by the end of 2022. If achieved, that would mark a 10% total return including dividends. Through Tuesday, the S&P 500 had advanced about 25% so far in 2021.

"The equity bull market will continue," said David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist.

Kostin lists several reasons for his optimism.

Corporate tax rates will probably remain unchanged next year and remain a tailwind to profits, contends Kostin. S&P 500 earnings will grow by 8% in 2022 to $226 a share based on Kostin's modeling. Kostin sees sales for S&P 500 companies increased by 9% year-over-year.


Investors will therefore be keen on further increasing their allocations to stocks.

"Households own half of the $28 trillion in U.S. cash assets, an increase of $3 trillion since before the pandemic. We expect households will shift some of this capital into equities over time," adds Kostin.

While those are supporting factors for stocks, Kostin cautions next year will not be without its risks that keeps returns lower than the red-hot ones seen in 2021.

"Decelerating economic growth, a tightening Fed, and rising real yields suggest investors should expect modestly below-average returns next year," Kostin warns.

According to Goldman's data, the S&P 500 has historically generated an average 12-month return of 8% in environments of positive but slowing economic activity and rising interest rates."

MY COMMENT

NOT a real shocking prediction by Goldman.......since......the SP500 return, on average is about 10%. including dividends. My personal view.....just for fun.......is a gain of 18.5% including dividends in 2022.

I REALLY dont care what it does......since I just sit fully invested all the time regardless.

 

Well I thought I had made a market prediction for the SP500 at the start of 2021. So I went back and looked for it. What I found was a post on January 8, 2021......post number 2966......here was my prediction for 2021:

"Well than lets say.....based on this one little week and this one little bit of preview of the year........at the end of December 2021......my GUESS is 17-25% total return for the SP500."

I am putting this on here now.....so I will be able to find it when we get to year end and I can see how close I came. Just.....fun and games. My current prediction for 2022 is 18.5%......I will adjust it at the start of the year to give a range. NOT really relevant to anything.....as I said....just for fun and personal entertainment.......I am EASILY ENTERTAINED in my old age.

 

LOL.....I saw that article earlier oldmanram and thought about posting it.

GOLDMAN......of all the companies to be talking about GREED........yeah right.

Talking about greed.....my own greed for tomorrow.....NVIDIA is up after hours by 5.16% or $15.10

 

Since the markets are not open yet....I will post some Economic data....that no one will care about.

Jobless claims: Another 268,000 individuals filed new unemployment claims last week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-november-13-2021-190507634.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"New weekly jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected but still eked out a new pandemic-era low, with the weekly rate of those rendered newly out-of-work coming closer to pre-virus levels.

The Labor Department released its jobless claims report Thursday. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

• Initial unemployment claims, week ended November 13: 268,000 vs. 260,000 expected and an upwardly revised 269,000 during prior week
  
• Continuing claims, week ended November 5: 2.080 million vs. 2.120 million expected and an upwardly revised 2.209 million during prior week
  

First-time unemployment claims held below the psychologically important 300,000 level for a sixth straight week. The steady move lower in jobless claims over the past several months has underscored continued improvement in the labor market's recovery, especially on demand side as employers look to hold onto workers.

But labor supply, however, remains tight. Near-record levels of job openings have reflected the extent of the scarcities, and the quits rate surged to an all-time high of 3.0% in September, Labor Department data showed last week. This has in turn incentivized companies to try and keep workers on their payrolls, contributing to the decline in new weekly unemployment claims.

"Labor is going to continue to be tight and we'll continue to focus on retaining our existing team," Target (TGT) Chief Operating Officer John Mulligan told analysts during the company's earnings call on Wednesday.

And at the same time, attracting workers has become more costly for many companies, with many implementing higher wages and bonuses. Both Target and Walmart (WMT) — the largest private employer in the U.S. — have cited increased labor costs in their most recent results, adding to the myriad of other companies that have also seen compensation expenses rise.

"What you saw during the quarter in the third quarter, more specifically in gross margin, were costs that came through in terms of supply chain, that would be everything from our domestic supply chains, labor [and] international supply chains as well," said John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart U.S., during the company's earnings call Tuesday.

While these labor shortages have continued for months now, many economists believe current labor dynamics will ultimately normalize as virus-related disruptions ease further and consumer savings from government stimulus earlier this year diminish. For the week ended Oct. 30, the total number of claimants across all programs was at just under 3.2 million, or far below the 20.8 million on all programs during the comparable week last year when federal augmented unemployment benefits were still in place.

"Overall, the labor market is on a gradual path of improvement. However, shortages — evident in the high level of job openings, which continue to outpace the number of unemployed individuals, — are preventing a stronger recovery," wrote Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist for High Frequency Economics, in a note.

"Our expectation remains that as the cushion from savings continues to diminish, and assuming the virus does not disrupt activity once again, supply constraints will ease," Farooqi added. "That will not only provide a boost to job growth but will also help lift participation and take pressure off wages." "

MY COMMENT

The labor markets CONTINUE to be totally screwed up. This "stuff" is the perfect example of what happens when government and government policy DISTORT and DISRUPT the economic system. Once you screw with the system it is very difficult to get back to normal. Humans are masters of quickly adapting to conditions.......and.....are very resistant to returning to the old system.

This is a simple little EXAMPLE of how easy it is and how quickly things can change if you destroy culture, history, and the norms of society.

In the end the joke will be on the.....humans.....that dont want to work. The short and long term future is increased productivity produced by using less and less human workers. Robotics and tech are the name of the game.

 

NVIDIA is on fire pre-market. I hope it continues after the open and STICKS till the close. I could use some nice money today. At the moment.....+9.09% or $26.59.

Those earnings yesterday were very STRONG. The REAL basis of the success of this company is their management. One of the most important things that I like to see in a potential holding is great management.

 

Here in my little local real estate area......I expect that the market in 2022 will be HOT, HOT, HOT. Listings will be slim and prices will be high. People moving here from around the country to work in the big tech companies will drive prices. Cash offers will continue to be a large part of the market Prices will stay higha nd probably go up from where they are right now.

As to the country in general....here is a little prediction:

The Property Line: Harsh Vibe Continues for Home Buyers in 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/property-line-harsh-vibe-continues-130059410.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Let's get right to it: The 2022 housing market seems likely to be a watered-down version of 2021. That means while price increases might be slowing and competition could be a little less intense, overall we're still looking at an abnormally hot market.

We wouldn’t call this a housing "bubble," because economists don’t expect prices to suddenly pop and start to deflate. But that's little comfort to would-be home buyers who've had offer after offer rejected. The stress of home buying and selling almost always puts people in their feelings, but in the coming year, emotions may be running especially high.

Here's how we think it could play out.

Rates will rise but still be pretty low

After hitting a record low of 2.66% at the tail end of 2020, interest rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages did rise at the start of 2021, but then hovered below 3% for much of the year. While we're unlikely to see sub-3% rates again anytime soon, major forecasters aren't predicting huge increases for 2022.

On the high side, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts rates will hit 4% by 2022's end. On the low end, Fannie Mae expects the 30-year fixed to average 3.4% at the end of the year. Those two organizations, plus Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors, predict that rates will rise steadily through 2022. When you take the average of all four groups' quarter-by-quarter predictions, you have the 30-year fixed averaging 3.33% in the first quarter and 3.7% in the fourth quarter.

This moderate increase seems like a fair prediction given the Federal Reserve's plan to slowly ease off its support of the market by tapering its purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury bonds. The central bank's long-anticipated move already had market watchers looking ahead to higher rates throughout the second half of 2021.

But markets are fickle, and with uncertainty about inflation, employment and, of course, the pandemic, even the Fed's plan is explicitly laid out only through the end of 2021. We all seem to be in agreement that rates will zig, but that doesn't mean they can't zag.

Home prices will also rise, but not as quickly as in 2021

Median existing home prices experienced double-digit year-over-year increases throughout 2021, according to NAR data. And the highest median price — $362,800 in June 2021 — was nearly $60,000 over the median price in January 2021. September, the most recent month for which data is available, continued a late-summer trend of less heady increases, and forecasters project slower price growth will continue into 2022.

At the high end, Fannie Mae expects home prices to grow 7.4% year over year, with Freddie Mac putting its prediction at 7%. MBA anticipates a 5.2% increase, while NAR is the outlier with a forecast for just 2.8% year-over-year growth. Averaged, these give us a projected 5.6% growth in home prices in 2022.

That would bring a home that sold for the September 2021 median price of $352,800 up to a potential resale value of $372,557 in 2022. Even if the rate of increase is slowing, the idea of median existing home prices getting within striking distance of $400,000 is more than a little alarming.

Because what's slowing down home price increases? Spoiler alert: It's not that the inventory of available homes for sale is expanding. Demand may be weakening because potential buyers are being priced out.

"First-time home buyers are already getting priced out of the market at an increasing rate, and higher prices have pushed the percent of those who can afford a house below 30% for the first time in many years," Robert Frick, corporate economist for Navy Federal Credit Union, said in an email.

"Hopefully, higher prices will take the edge off demand," he added, which could cause sellers to pull back on escalating prices. "Still, due to demographic reasons, housing demand will stay strong for the foreseeable future, so a moderation in home prices likely won't be dramatic."

Current homeowners may put more equity to work

Thanks to the increases in home values throughout 2021, many homeowners are sitting on a considerable cushion of equity. ICYMI, your home's value minus how much you still owe on your mortgage equals your home equity. For most homeowners, becoming a seller in this market (yay!) would also mean becoming a buyer in this market (boo), so staying put and upgrading may be more appealing than moving.

For homeowners looking to renovate, a slight increase in interest rates wouldn’t necessarily be a deterrent to a cash-out refinance, home equity loan or home equity line of credit. Overall, mortgage analytics company Black Knight estimates that U.S. homeowners have roughly $9.1 trillion in tappable equity. More than $6 trillion of that equity belongs to households with credit scores north of 760, aka folks who are likely to qualify for the most favorable interest rates. Borrowing against your home always carries a certain amount of risk, but the temptation to treat yourself for having gotten through 2021 (and 2020) may be strong.

And even though upward-notching rates could make rate-and-term refinances less attractive, plenty of homeowners could potentially benefit from a basic refi. As of October 2021, roughly 11.5 million homeowners could refinance and drop their interest rates by at least 0.75%, per Black Knight.

Affordable homes will remain hard to find

The inventory of existing homes for sale grew throughout 2021, but stayed low enough that we're still nowhere near a buyer's market, or even a balanced one. When it would take six months or more to sell all the houses on the market at the current pace of home sales, the market is said to favor buyers. Less than six months' worth is a seller's market. The most recent NAR data for September 2021 has the U.S. at a mere 2.4 months' supply.

On top of that, homes that are affordable are even harder to find, as scarcity — among other forces — drives up prices. Examining home prices in the 100 largest U.S. metro areas, Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies found that in 2020, a household earning 50% to 80% of the area's median income could afford to buy a home in only 39 of those metros. If you think that sounds grim, in 2021 the number of affordable metro areas dropped to 20.

And that's with historically low mortgage interest rates helping make homes more affordable: Having to put less cash toward interest each month allows buyers to put more of their money toward their principal, or toward building equity.

"As tight as it was this year, the interest rates have kept buyers in the game," Anthony Carr, a broker with Re/Max West End in Falls Church, Virginia, commented in an email. But with rates and prices edging up, even if it's at a slower pace, buyers at the lower end of the market will be pushed out.

Sellers will still mostly have the upper hand

With inventory so low, most sellers can continue to expect multiple offers. The National Association of Home Builders regularly surveys buyers who've been searching for three or more months and found that in the third quarter of 2021, being outbid was the top reason those folks hadn't yet bought homes.

While some markets still have buyers offering top dollar for virtually any property that's listed, others are starting to see moderation.

Torrence Ford, a broker with Re/Max Premier in Atlanta, said in an email that "sellers that price accurately are still seeing pending contracts in 10 days or less," but to get the best offers, properties need to be in good condition. "Sellers are still needing to prepare their homes for a traditional sale with paint, deep cleaning, and having major repair issues settled," he said. "With those things in line, buyers are easily willing to waive inspections and appraisal contingencies."

He also mentioned that the breakneck pace of the market in his area has calmed somewhat: "Buyers are getting a fair shot at homes from listing agents and sellers allowing homes to sit on the market from a Thursday to Sunday."

Four days is now a "fair shot"? Compared with the recent craze of sellers asking for "highest and best" offers from a single day of showings, sure, why not. Four days may not be enough time to see a property twice, but at least you can sleep on it.

Buyers are getting fed up

While social media may not be an official barometer of the housing market, looking at exasperated memes, stupefied TikToks and snarky tweets makes it clear that home buyers — especially millennial and Gen Z buyers hoping to become homeowners — are getting salty. There seems to be a broadening understanding that this is less about their individual financial choices (like the much-mocked avocado toast theory) and more about the market failing to supply affordable housing that keeps pace with current demographics.

And though plenty of Americans are still hoping to buy homes, some are abandoning the search. The NAHB found that after peaking in the second quarter of 2021, the number of prospective buyers actively trying to find a home dropped.

Others are finding ways to do whatever it takes to get a home. "Sellers are getting greedy and buyers are getting smarter," Century 21 Affiliated agent Barry Shaw of Hudson, Wisconsin, said in an email. "Buyers have been getting creative with their offers to beat (the) competition." This can include workarounds that avoid a full home inspection and contingencies that cover potential appraisal gaps.

The determination of buyers who aren't giving up until they get an offer accepted guarantees that competition will remain intense, especially in desirable metros. Prices may go up, rates may rise, inventory could expand, but there's one certainty we can predict: People will keep on buying houses."

MY COMMENT

My local area has been a very strong real estate market for at least 2-3 years now. At the moment a home that would have sold for about $250,000 6 or 7 years ago is selling for $650,000. Much of this increase here locally is people moving here with a boatload of cash. Much of the increase is also the MILLENNIAL generation....the largest generation ever....hitting prime home buying age.

One thing is TRUE....owning a home is a CRITICAL part of any financial plan. Home ownership is one of the KEY drivers of individual NET WORTH. It is the primary way to diversify your financial plan. Stocks, real property (home), and hard assets......the basics to NET WORTH and financial security. It is that simple.

 

GREED IS GOOD......well at least at this moment. I am seeing a BIG bump up in my portfolio now...just after the open. Thank you....NVIDIA. Nine of my ten holdings are UP today......but.....the largest gain by far is Nvidia. Today we are seeing the REAL reaction of the markets to the earnings that came out after the bell on Wednesday.

 

Here is how we start the day today......a beautiful day in the (market) neighborhood.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise, led by tech as Nvidia jumps after earnings

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-18-2021-231831751.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
"Stocks were mostly higher on Thursday to reverse course after dropping a day earlier, as investors weighed a batch of solid corporate earnings results against lingering inflation concerns.

The S&P 500 rose. As of Wednesday's close, the index was up by 1.8% for November to date, and hovered less than 0.7% below its all-time intraday high.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares jumped to help lead both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher after the semiconductor company posted record quarterly revenues and strong full-year guidance. The report suggested it was effectively navigating a lingering global shortage and meeting elevated demand.

Dow company Cisco (CSCO), however, saw results dented by components shortages, and the computer networking equipment company posted a disappointing current-quarter forecast. And overseas, Alibaba's (BABA) sharply disappointing quarterly report and slashed guidance for the full year raised alarm bells about the pace of growth in China — the world's second-largest economy — as company executives highlighted slowing consumption trends. Meanwhile, U.S. retailer Victoria's Secret (VSCO) saw shares surge after delivering much better-than-expected third-quarter profits and suggesting sales would grow by as much as 3% in the current period.

The broader equity market drop on Wednesday had coincided with a set of new economic data showing a surprise drop in new-home construction last month. Commentary about inflation also mounted and added to investors' concerns over elevated price pressures. Target (TGT) executives flagged rising labor and other input costs during their earnings call on Wednesday and added to a chorus of other company mentions of inflation.

The possibility that elevated inflation will stick around longer than previously anticipated remained a central focus for investors, both for its potential dampening effect on consumer spending, and as a potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than previously telegraphed. The U.S. central bank has so far maintained its accommodative tilt and telegraphed that an initial interest rate hike could take place sometime next year, depending on the evolution of the economic recovery. Investors also continue to await a formal announcement from President Joe Biden about his nominee for Fed chair, with the most likely candidates being current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and current Fed Governor Lael Brainard.

The Fed's present still-accommodative leaning has helped support equity markets and capped Treasury yields, which has in turn further kept investors focused on riskier assets like stocks over bonds.

"The yield question is kind of global in nature," Uma Pattarkine, CenterSquare senior analyst, told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday. "We still see [central] banks being very, very accommodative. So it seems like we might be kind of in this 'lower rate for a longer time' environment.

"At this point investors really need to be looking at yields, where they can get it elsewhere in the market if they're not planning on getting it through fixed income in the near future, until we see that movement in the global rate market," Pattarkine added.

9:50 a.m. ET: Alibaba shares slide after missing earnings estimates, slashing guidance
Alibaba posted September quarter results and guidance that sharply missed estimates, with a slowing economic environment in China and efforts to contain the coronavirus in the region weighing on consumer spending on the e-commerce platform.

"Over the last 6 months, we have observed softer market conditions with slowing consumption growth in China," Alibaba Chief Financial Officer Wei Wu said during the company's earnings call Thursday. "Given slower-than-expected domestic consumption growth, since we provided our revenue guidance in May, we now expect our fiscal '22 revenue growth to be 20-23% year-over-year."

Consensus analysts were expecting full-year sales growth of 27%, based on Bloomberg data.

For Alibaba's latest reported quarter, sales grew by a smaller-than-expected 29% to reach 200.7 billion yuan ($31.4 billion), whereas analysts were looking for 206.2 billion yuan. Adjusted earnings per American depository share were 11.20 yuan, also short of the 12.37 expected. The weakness was mostly contained to Alibaba's core retail business, with its newer cloud computing business posting a 33% rise in revenue during the quarter."

MY COMMENT

A mixed market today.....the DOW is down and the NASDAQ and the SP500 are up. At this point in my life I dont know anyone that is focused on the DOW as an investor. It has been ages since I have heard of anyone investing in a DOW Index Fund. The DOW is simply irrelevant to modern investors. It is way too narrow and shallow as an index and the companies that make up the DOW are NOT a good measure of the day to day markets as they exist now.

For me......the PRIMARY measure of the markets, the economy and the health of the business environment continues to be the SP500.

For ANYONE that is looking for a one stop investment......for me.....it is the SP500. My continued advice to any family member that wants to be in stocks but has no time to mess with them.....just put everything in the SP500 for the long term.

 

Even though I would not be a buyer of Cathie Wood's fund.....we do agree on the issue of inflation and the danger of DEFLATION. We also agree on the general market direction going forward.

As long as we don’t fall into a recession,’ we’re in a long bull market, says ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...invests-cathie-wood-11637178646?siteid=yhoof2

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Star stock picker Cathie Wood says she remains bullish on the equity market long-term, despite bearish concerns about rising inflation pressures as the global economy attempts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

In an video interview with MarketWatch’s sister publication Barron’s on Wednesday, Wood said that “we’re in a long bull market,” that will sustain itself “as long as we don’t fall into a recession.”

Wood said that equity investors are climbing a “massive wall of worry,” and are “effectively saying no” to concerns the likelihood that a new regime of corporate taxes will upend bullish momentum.

She also said that the stock market appears to be telling us that expectations are low that inflation will be sustained.

Wood is a money manager, whose funds focus on making investments in disruptive innovations and manages the flagship $20.7 billion ARK Innovation ETF ARKK, -2.06%. ARK Innovation had been a highflier in 2021 until a rotation out of growthy investments helped to pummel her disruptive vehicles, which is down 6% so far in 2021.

By comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.64% was up 17% in the year to date, the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.17% was rising nearly 25%, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.27% was up nearly 24%."

MY COMMENT

YEP....we are STILL in a long term BULL MARKET. When will it end? It will end when it ends.......there is no way to know. One BIG CLUE to when it will end will be....government policy. The government is always one of the biggest BLACK SWANS for investors no matter what party is in power.

I think it is interesting that nearly every story about or quoting Cathie Wood uses terms like......"star stock picker". She got MASSIVE publicity due to her funds return last year. This year.....the entire media seems to be IGNORING the FACT that her primary fund sits at (-6%) year to date. She has a very long way to go to establish herself as an equal to Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch. She is way too active of a trader for my taste.