The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This little summary of the day includes the other economic data that came out today.....of course....no one will care about this info.

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks mixed after weekly jobless claims reach 52-year low, PCE inflation jumps

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-24-2021-231754245.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks were mixed on Wednesday following an extended rout in technology stocks, as investors digested a deluge of economic data before a holiday market closure.

    The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq fluctuated between gains and losses. Investors considered new Labor Department data showing weekly initial jobless claims fell far more than expected to their lowest level since November 1969, underscoring current tight labor market conditions. However, a separate print showed personal consumption expenditures (PCE) accelerated to rise by 5.0% in October, or the fastest rate since 1990, to add to recent signs of elevated price pressures.

    The 10-year Treasury yield rose to near 1.7% amid these further signs of a firming economic recovery and persistently hot inflation data.

    Rising interest rates have coincided with a selloff in tech and growth stocks this week, with the Nasdaq dropping 0.5% on Tuesday after Monday's more than 1% decline.

    "Initially, the markets were happy with the FOMC decision [for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination] in the sense that it was sort of a continuity play to some degree. But then rates started to rise, and a lot of folks read rising rates as negative for big-cap tech," Stuart Kaiser, UBS head of equity derivatives research, told Yahoo Finance Live. "So I think the tradeoff we're going to have here is that, tech has been market leadership — it's obviously a strong earnings growth and free cash flow engine for U.S. equities — but if you believe it's going to come under pressure from higher yields, then you end up with kind of a difficult Catch-22."

    According to other analysts, the market action this week — with a renewed rotation away from technology and growth stocks in the face of rising rates — could presage the investing environment for next year.

    "[Tuesday] might be an example of what we see more of next year as the Fed moves into a mode of withdrawing liquidity from the markets and ending these pandemic-era policies, perhaps with rate hikes at the end of the year," Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab chief global investment strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live. "And that means higher-valuation stocks, well, they tend to not do as well in environments of rising interest rates and tighter financial conditions."

    "So you may want to look to be in those sectors that are maybe trading closer to their average valuations, looking to leadership like financials, energy," he added. "The only caveat to that is when we see these upticks in COVID cases globally, it tends to favor those lockdown defensives like technology."

    12:02 p.m. ET: New home sales unexpectedly rose for a back-to-back month in October
    New home sales rose by 0.4% in October to extend gain after a 7.1% increase in September, Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday. Consensus economists were looking for an unchanged reading last month, according to Bloomberg consensus data.

    "The trend is picking up after a steep drop in the first half of the year, and the recent rising trend in mortgage applications points to clear increases over the next few months, with sales hitting 850K or so by January," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note Wednesday. "At the same time, inventory continues to rise rapidly, in contrast to the existing homes market. Supply in the three months October stood at 6.3 months, a bit higher than before COVID. As a result the surge in prices now looks very overcooked, and we expect a clear slowing in the first half of next year."

    10:15 a.m. ET: Personal spending and income each top estimates in October despite
    Personal spending increased in October even amid elevated prices, pointing to continued strength in the consumer despite lingering inflation.

    Personal spending, which comprises about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose by 1.3% in October compared to September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Wednesday. This was faster than the 0.6% rate posted for September and the 1.0% monthly increase expected, according to Bloomberg data. Real personal spending also accelerated during the month and topped estimates, rising by 0.7% from September's 0.3% increase.

    Personal income, meanwhile, rebounded after dropping last month, rising by 0.5% versus the 0.2% increase anticipated. Income had fallen by 1.0% month-on-month in September, in part coming after federal enhanced unemployment benefits were phased out at the national level after Labor Day.

    10:10 a.m. ET: Personal consumption expenditures rose at fastest pace since 1990
    A new print on inflation rose at its fastest rate in more than three decades in October, adding to a bevy of data pointing to persistent inflationary pressures.

    Personal consumption expenditures rose by 5.0% in October over last year, accelerating from September's 4.4% rise. The latest monthly print marked the fastest annual growth rate since 1990.

    Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE deflator was up 4.1% in October, also accelerating from September's revised 3.7% increase. This was the fastest annual rise in the core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — since 1991."

    MY COMMENT

    HERE is one more relevant article today:

    US GDP slowed sharply in Q3 but big rebound expected in Q4

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-gdp-slowed-sharply-q3-133750975.html

    "WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy slowed to a modest annual rate of 2.1% in the October-December quarter, slightly better than first reported. But economists are predicting a solid rebound in the current quarter as long as rising inflation and a recent uptick in COVID cases do not derail activity.

    The increase in the gross domestic product, the economy's total output of goods and services, was up from an initial estimate of 2% for the third quarter. But the revision was still well below the solid gains of 6.3% in the first quarter this year and 6.7% in the second quarter.

    The weak summer performance reflected a big slowdown in consumer spending as a spike in COVID-19 cases from the delta variant caused consumers to grow more cautious and snarled supply chains made items such as new cars hard to get and also contributed to a burst of inflation to levels not seen in three decades.

    While COVID cases in recent weeks have started to rise again in many parts of the country, economists do not think the latest increase will be enough to dampen consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic activity.

    The expectation is that the economy in the current October-December quarter could grow at the strongest pace this year, possibly topping 8%."


    MY COMMENT

    OK....so what. We move on to THANKSGIVING tomorrow and a short market day on Friday. We start fresh on Monday with a new week and the beginning of the SHOPPING season. At least we got all of this data and the FED announcement out of the way ALL IN ONE WEEK. We are now free and clear to move on.....however the markets see fit.

    After this week we are in the FINAL five market weeks of the year.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am posting my current daily result early.....we have another hour to go. At the moment I am in the GREEN. I am beating the SP5000 by 0.20%. My LOSERS are Honeywell, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon. The BEST of my winners are Nvidia and Tesla.

    I will update the final figures tonight when i get back. I got all my reading and posting done early since I am heading out to play a show this evening.
     
  3. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Active Member

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    Set a new high today in my IRA. Up 1.71% for the week and 16.41% since I took over control 3/31 ish. Last week on Friday I had sold my stock in CR and bought more EOG while it was down low and EOG is now positive. Everything was positive today except AMZN which was only down .02%. DE jumped 5.32% today which was nice gain.
     
    #8563 gtrudeau88, Nov 24, 2021 at 6:56 PM
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021 at 7:07 PM
  4. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Active Member

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    I just looked and the s&p 500 closed at 4701.46 today and it closed at 4073.94 on March 31. I took over my ira from Edward Jones that day.

    Unless I'm missing something, I'm actually a little ahead of the index, 16.41% versus 15.4% for the index.
     
    Jwalker likes this.
  5. Ciao (Sheppy)

    Ciao (Sheppy) Well-Known Member

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    HI WXYZ
    just seen your thread interesting (only managed to read your first few posts) bravo
    but I am the opposite of you..... I only hold for few minutes (I scalp) it show how many way there are to make green
    at the moment my only one long it is VXRT
    good luck
     
  6. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Hey guys, been a minute, just dealing with work on the new property and well… The holidays!
    Glad to see W is still kicking butt and adding even more tsla… way to go!
    As for me… I’ve dumped PLTR and DIS this week and replaced them with AAPL & more NVDA
    Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Enjoy your holiday season and let’s make (more) money!!
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    No markets....so....no fun today. Other than Thanksgiving festivities.

    Nine Things We Are Thankful For
    In the spirit of Thanksgiving, here is some good cheer.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/nine-things-we-are-thankful-for

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Tomorrow is Thanksgiving, and on the surface, there is perhaps not a lot to be thankful for. The world is still dealing with the fallout of COVID—and the lockdowns and restrictions designed to slow its spread. Relatedly, supply chain woes linger, fomenting inflation fear. Debates over vaccine mandates, taxes and potential spending legislation add more angst. But finding joy amid trials is the key to getting through this thing called life, so here are some things we think all investors can be grateful for as we gather with family and friends over the year’s greatest feast.

    1. The existence of worries like the above. Life is never great. But when bad things—whether real or false—lower investor sentiment, it keeps expectations in check and extends the wall of worry for stocks to climb. If everything looked and felt rosy, it would suggest the bull market’s pinnacle was nearby.

    2. Midterm Congressional elections. Regardless of your personal feelings about the current Congress and the administration’s various proposals, stocks like gridlock—and midterms promote that. These contests, now less than a year away, give politicians incentive to avoid rocking the boat, which results in legislation getting watered down or scrapped outright, much as we have seen with the reconciliation budget bill.

    3. Creative business owners. While politicians dither and argue about things like the climate and energy supply, creative entrepreneurs are out there doing something about these and other socioeconomic problems. As they do, it creates new investment opportunities for all of us. Here’s to all those pursuing mini-modular nuclear reactors, next-generation plastic recycling, hydrogen power and so very much more

    4. The stock market. It is such a wonderful thing! Not only does it let anyone who is willing to take some risk reap the rewards of economic growth and innovation, but it is a very forgiving beast. It doesn’t need perfection to rise, which, thank goodness since perfection never exists. It just needs things to go a tad better than expected. As a bonus, its main job is discounting all widely known information and discerning likely outcomes—in other words, as it pre-prices events, it basically worries about things so that you don’t have to. While many decried things like meme stocks’ advance earlier this year as a sign of excess, we think it should be equally celebrated as some new investors embracing markets—if not moreso.

    5. Monetary policymakers. Do they always make wise decisions? Nope. But lately, those at the world’s major central banks are inching away from the long-term bond purchases that have flattened yield curves globally for nearly two years now. The Bank of England, which was among the first to end its quantitative easing program, is now setting expectations that it will begin selling its bond holdings as it raises short-term interest rates, which should promote an even steeper yield curve. These changes may not move the needle economically, but they are injecting some welcome sanity into monetary policy.

    6. China’s capital controls. In the long run, markets would probably welcome a more liberalized financial system in China. But while capital controls persist, they help firewall domestic problems, preventing them from infecting global markets to any great extent. Exhibit A: western banks’ exceedingly small exposure to China Evergrande and other distressed property developers. We still don’t think these issues are likely to cause a hard landing or financial crisis in China, but capital controls are something of an insurance policy for Western investors just in case.

    7. Rising prices. No, we don’t like paying them. Yes, we realize they can present hardships for people. But they are also signals, telling producers when it is time to increase output—and telling creative people when it is time to dream up new things that will help us all use scarce resources more efficiently. Without price signals, the world would be a much more stagnant, dreary place. Speaking of which …

    8. The UK’s electricity price caps. Every now and then, the world needs a reminder that price controls and rationing don’t work. The UK, where several electricity suppliers have gone bust due to rising wholesale prices and capped retail prices, is giving the world this very necessary reminder.

    9. Our dear readers. Seriously, y’all are great. Thank you for reading and giving us a reason to write every day. We wish you and yours a very, very happy Thanksgiving.

    MY COMMENT

    AMEN....we all have much to be thankful for.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    You have to LOVE these sorts of days. Post holiday, shallow, and totally IRRATIONAL. Everyone is off for the day....and....no one cares. A perfect day for the impact of government issues......from local to national....to drive the markets DOWN. A perfect news driven day.

    It makes me LAUGH..........WHATEVER.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I dont recall if I mentioned.....I got my Covid Booster. Moderna. No big deal....no symptoms. Since the media is FEAR MONGERING covid today.......I thought I would mention that I am NOW immune.

    Oh wait.....this vaccine does NOT seem to work like all the other vaccines I have had over my entire life. Unfortunately for the drug industry.....the technology used for these vaccines seems to have FAILED.

    At least this is good news for investors in terms of the Ten Year Treasury yield.....which SANK back down to the mid 1.55% level. It is STILL at the low end of the past 100 years yield chart. That is a pretty significant DROP from the 1.65% level of just one day ago. Good news for investors.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I GUESS this is a good day to throw a reminder out there......not that I have any concern about the markets today. SOME DAY......sooner of later....there will be a HUGE correction or a BEAR MARKET. It will be a time of reckoning for the typical investor under age 40......that has NEVER in their entire investing life had to live during a SEVERE DOWN market.

    The VAST majority reading this post will think and say it will not matter to them. They will simply handle it with perfect market timing......or.....will sit through it.....or......will use it as a buying opportunity. REALITY and past history........yes, I love the phrase "past history" as though there is any other kind of history.......anyway.....past history tells me that what the VAST majority thinks is simply FANTASY.

    The VAST majority will PANIC just like always happens. They will either PANIC quickly or slowly. Either way the Panic happens.....slow of fast....does not matter. What matters is that by the time it all ends the VAST majority of people will have gotten shaken out of the markets and will have been significantly damaged in terms of their investing confidence. They will have also gotten severely damaged in terms of their net worth.

    By the time we get to the end and the markets turn back UP......the majority of people that got shaken out will NOT recognize that the pain is over. They will miss out on the historic EARLY big gains. In fact it will probably take at least 1-2 years or more for most people to feel safe to get back into the markets.

    The NEXT BEAR MARKET will be particularly SIGNIFICANT to the Baby Boom generation. With the large numbers of Boomers retiring over the next 10-15 years......a BEAR MARKET will burn away a significant amount of their retirement assets. It will be a.....risk tolerance....reality check on steroids.

    I bring this up now.....in spite of the fact that we are going to end this year with EXTREMELY POSITIVE GAINS. I also believe it is likely that we will also see a very nice market gain in 2022. BUT......what I know from my life experience and 45+ year of investing.....is that sooner or later the time will come.

    So what will I do to prepare for this next little event? Well physically in terms of my accounts.......NOTHING. As usual I will simply sit through it all. If I am still posting I will come on here and CURSE the markets....but that is about it.

    Now PSYCHOLOGICALLY....that is very different. Psychologically I will prepare by doing exactly what I am doing right now....reminding myself that it WILL happen......that it WILL seem bad.....that it WILL seem to last forever. Although, in reality it will only last.....up to.....a year or two.
     
    #8570 WXYZ, Nov 26, 2021 at 10:41 AM
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2021 at 10:47 AM
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Just a quick reality check.....on a negative day. The SP500 year to date is.......STILL.......at about +23% year to date.
     
    Jwalker likes this.
  12. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Yikes… what a day… luckily for everyone, I think, we had such tremendous gains in the past couple of months that such a substantial drop in a day like today doesn’t feel so bad… sucks either way
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Just for the historical record....here is what went down today. Simply a media driven drop.....along with the very shallow holiday market where a few sellers and traders had WAY OVERSIZED ability to move the markets.


    Stock market news live updates: Wall Street rocked by new COVID variant fears, Dow plunges over 900 points

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-26-2021-125443465.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "U.S. stocks plunged on Friday, with global markets rattled by a new coronavirus variant discovered in South Africa, which fanned concerns that new growth-crushing lockdowns could be imposed if the variant spreads widely.

    Trading volumes were low due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., which may have exacerbated the volatility.

    However, major benchmarks fell sharply during the holiday-shortened session, with the Dow (^DJI) diving by more than 900 points — logging its worst day of the year and its third worst Thanksgiving selloff ever. Meanwhile, S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank by over 2%, its biggest drop since February, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) also fell sharply, but its losses were partly contained by a rally in stay-at-home stocks.

    A new coronavirus variant has been discovered in South Africa, leading to an emergency session of the World Health Organization. Dubbed "Omicron," scientists say the new B.1.1.529 strain is a concern, because it harbors a large number of mutations found in other variants — including the fast-spreading Delta variant that exploded over much of the summer — and it seems to be rapidly spreading.

    While there's no evidence yet, health officials are worried that the mutating variant could dilute or resist the efficacy of vaccines.

    "It goes without saying that it’s still too early to say exactly how big a threat the new B.1.1.529 strain poses to the global economy," Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

    Still, "the lesson from the past couple of years is that it’s the restrictions that are imposed in response to the virus – rather than the virus itself – that causes the bulk of the economic damage. So, the key question is how governments will respond in the event that the B.1.1.529 strain spreads," Shearling wrote.

    "That in turn will hinge on the extent to which it escapes the vaccines and, importantly, causes strains in national healthcare systems," he added — underscoring that governments in the U.S. and U.K. had taken a "learn to live with the virus" approach, and thus are far less likely than other regions to impose new restrictions.

    BioNTech (BNTX) said on Friday it expects more data on the new coronavirus variant in South Africa within two weeks to help its shots should be reworked, and that the company and Pfizer (PFE) — its vaccine partner — could redesign its vaccine within 6 weeks, with an aim to distribute it within 100 days.

    Pfizer surged as much as 8% to record, signaling that the new variant could create demand for the vaccine.

    While fears of COVID-19 dominated investors' attention for much of 2020 and 2021, Pfizer confirms it could make variant vaccine in 100 days with the ability to make four billion doses in the first 12 months, according to Citi analyst Andrew Baum.

    Travel and leisure-related stocks were among those hit the hardest early Friday, with Carnival Corp (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) down by 10% in premarket trading. United Airlines (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL) and American Airlines were down each 7% each. Boeing slipped 6%. Marriott International and Hilton Worldwide fell more than 5%.

    Travel platform Expedia (EXPE) was the fifth-worst performer in the S&P 500, dropping by 11% during the shortened trading day, while home sharing site Airbnb (ABNB) was down more than 5%.

    On the flip side, stay-at-home stocks gained Zoom (ZM) up 9%, while Netflix (NFLX) bounded higher by 2%.

    Oil prices also swooned to the lowest levels in more than two months Friday sparking fears about a slowdown in demand.

    U.S. oil dropped 10% its the worst day since April 2020, with U.S. crude futures down 6.2% to $73.57 per barrel on perceived fears of falling demand amid the new variant.

    Bond yields have also fallen as the market's inflation fears temporarily gave way to the desire for safe-haven assets. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down to 1.53% after closing at 1.63% on Wednesday.

    "We're still in a place where yields are so low that the safe haven of bonds isn't as safe as it looks," ProShares' Simeon Hyman told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. "You're making not that much today on that little bit of rally in treasuries, so it's a tough spot."

    Banks, which benefit from the higher interest rates, were broadly weaker as bond yields declined. Bank of America sinks 5.8%, Wells Fargo drops 6.3%, Citigroup loses 4.8%, JPMorgan declines 4.7%, Goldman Sachs sheds 3.9% and Morgan Stanley tumbled 4.9%"

    10:30 a.m. ET: The end of the interest rate differential play?
    Friday's decidedly risk-off tone is calling into question the level of aggressiveness with which the Federal Reserve may pull back on its stimulus. Only a day ago, some thought the rapid surge in prices could prompt the Fed to speed up a taper — or even hike rates faster.

    What a difference a day makes. Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global FX, pointed out in a research note that the rise of a new variant is scrambling Fed expectations versus the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan:

    The dollar's rally has been fueled by the prospect of a divergence of monetary policy that favored the Fed over the ECB and BOJ. Indeed, since the November 10 surprise jump in the October CPI to above 6%, we had emphasized the likelihood that the Fed would have to taper quicker to give it the flexibility to lift rates earlier if needed. Since then, 4-5 Fed officials and several large banks have also underscored this possibility. However, this scenario is being called into question today, which is evident in the swaps markets and the Fed funds futures."

    MY COMMENT

    Good....the end of the week. BRING ON.......the new week.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So....after an abnormal week with the holiday....here is how the market stand at this moment.

    DOW year to date +14.03%
    DOW for the week (-1.93%)

    SP500 year to date +22.33%
    SP500 for the week (-2.19%)

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +24.34%
    NASDAQ 100 for the week (-3.33%)

    NASDAQ year to date +20.20%
    NASDAQ for the week (-3.55%)

    RUSSELL year to date +13.73%
    RUSSELL for the week (-4.81%)

    BOUNCE back Monday? Could be as rational minds come back into the markets and bargain hunting takes over. OR....the alternative is the market DRAMA continues for a few days more. Stay tuned.....we will find out on Monday.
     
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I really did not have to look today....but I did anyway. I was ALL RED.....every position. The only minor bit of good news for me was that my losses today were just about in line with the SP500......which beat me today by 0.13%.

    I was actually pleased that my loss was ONLY about 2.40%. With my tech heavy ten holdings I thought I might be down by much more. Apparently the NASDAQ had a little bit of strength today even though the end results do not show that.
     
  16. JaysonW

    JaysonW Member

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    Yep, I looked, too, just before the bell at noon. Account was down 2.27%, way better than I thought it was going to be.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Since it is the weekend.....here is the symptoms of the new COVID in South Africa that the media is freaking out about.

    South African doctor says omicron variant symptoms ‘unusual but mild’
    "So far, we have detected that those infected do not suffer the loss of taste or smell. They might have a slight cough."

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/south-african-doctor-omicron-variant-symptoms-unusual-mild

    FROM THE ARTICLE:

    "The South African doctor who first alerted authorities to the presence of the COVID-19 omicron variant reported that it presents "unusual but mild" symptoms." ...........

    "Their symptoms were so different and so mild from those I had treated before.".........

    "It presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness for a day or two not feeling well," Coetzee explained. "So far, we have detected that those infected do not suffer the loss of taste or smell. They might have a slight cough. There are no prominent symptoms."........

    MY COMMENT

    Seems like a BIG JOKE that these sort of MILD symptoms are being FEAR MONGERED in the media around the world. What is said here certainly DOES NOT justify the panic reaction seen Friday.
     
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  18. sarahdurden

    sarahdurden New Member

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    Thanks for the info. I’m roughly 70% investor right now and prefer long term strategies like yours (Warren Buffett continues to be a major role model of mine). I recently switched to a few higher dividend stocks as I’m currently living on those while building up a business. But ordinarily I’m focused entirely on long term accumulated growth (less exciting but hasn’t failed me yet).
     
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  19. sarahdurden

    sarahdurden New Member

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    @WXYZ I’m in total agreement with you there! This whole thing has been one giant fear mongering campaign in my opinion. There are far worse things in the world to worry about if I have time to spare!
     
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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Sarahdurden........WELCOME. Nice to see another long term investor on the board. Please feel free to post your opinions and investing experiences on here any time.
     
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