The Long Term Investor

Why the market drop today? If you ask me.......THIS......is the REAL reason.

Fed's Bullard wants faster policy tightening, citing 'inflation shock'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-bullard-calls-removing-policy-141754759.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
"(Reuters) -St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard on Friday called for the Fed to begin tightening monetary policy, citing unexpectedly high inflation, strong economic growth and a labor market that is very tight and poised to strengthen further.

"These considerations suggest that the FOMC at upcoming meetings may want to consider removing accommodation at a faster pace," Bullard told the Missouri Bankers Association, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee which sets U.S. monetary policy at the Fed.

A government report early Friday showing weaker-than-expected jobs growth in November appeared to be no impediment to that view. Inflation has headed sharply higher, he said, adding that he expects to continue to see "dramatic improvement" in the U.S. labor market.

Bullard has been among the most hawkish of Fed policymakers, urging the central bank to end its bond-buying program by early next year to put the Fed in position to start raising interest rates as early as the spring if needed to contain inflation. The remarks Friday took that a step further.

It is too early to assess the impact of the emergence of the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 on the U.S economy, he said.

Fed policymakers next meet on Dec. 14-15 and will consider speeding the reduction of its bond-buying program, which currently is on track to end by June of next year. Even with the reductions, the Fed is still actively easing monetary policy by buying bonds; interest rates remain near zero where they have been since March 2020.

Given the unexpected shock of inflation this year, and despite remaining pandemic risks, Bullard said, "the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should remove monetary policy accommodation.""

MY COMMENT

This guy will be a voting member of the committee going forward. My view......the more the FED starts to focus on fighting inflation.....the HIGHER....the risk of a recession. The economy is very fragile right now with the re-opening only starting......the labor markets TOTALLY disrupted and screwed up by incentives to not work.......the supply chain and issues created by our dependence on foreign manufacturing......etc, etc, etc.

 

This was the GOLDEN GIRL last year. NOW......REALITY has set in. It will be interesting to look back in 10-15 years and see what her long term record is at that point.

Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation fund hits 13-month low in tech selloff

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-woods-ark-innovation-fund-173839430.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Star stock picker Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF tumbled more than 7% and hit its lowest level since November 2020 on Friday as bets on a more aggressive Federal Reserve pushed investors to sell the high-growth, high-valuation stocks that rallied during the early stages of the pandemic.

The declines in ARK's portfolio were widespread, with nine out of its 10 top holdings falling as a selloff in technology stocks pushed the benchmark S&P 500 down 1.3%. Tesla Inc, its largest holding, shed nearly 4%, while Teladoc Health Inc, its second-largest holding, dropped 5.2%.

ARK, whose outsized holding of so-called stay at home stocks helped it outperform all other U.S. equity funds last year, is down 25% over the last month. Those declines have come as investors increasingly anticipate that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in the year ahead, which would weigh on growth stocks by discounting their future cash flows.

Friday’s declines may have been bolstered by a U.S. employment report showing that the U.S. economy added 210,000 jobs last month, pushing the unemployment rate to a 21-month low of 4.2%.

"Ultimately the lower unemployment rate could help build confidence that the economic growth we've been seeing will continue regardless of what happens with Omicron, and that will push investors out into small-caps and cyclicals instead of the stay at home and technology trades," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the central bank is open to accelerating the pace of its tapering program, essentially removing its support of the economy faster than it originally anticipated.

Friday's declines pushed the ARK Innovation fund down 24.5% for the year to date, well behind the roughly 20% gain in the benchmark S&P 500 over the same time.

Roku Inc, for instance, dropped 4.1% Friday, leaving it down nearly 40% for the year to date, while Spotify Technology SA fell 1.4%, leaving it down 28.3% for the year to date.

ARK Invest did not respond to a request for comment for this story."

MY COMMENT

I would not respond either if I was them. the media LOVES to set someone up as a god......and than.....knock them back down. This lady has her plan and own investing style. She is definately a smart investor and fund manager. It will be interesting to see how she does over the next five years and over the longer term of 10-15 years.

She may have the last laugh......or....she may not.....it is impossible to say right now.

 

WELL......I had to see where I stood year to date. I am at +25.56% as of the close today. Very nice considering.....but.....that represents hindsight thinking. That gain represents the past 11 months. I am more interested with where we go from here over the remainder of the year and into the new year.

 

NO DOUBT......this is the greatest danger to investors.

What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/st...ron-federal-reserve-51638575944?siteid=yhoof2

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Now can we have a correction?

We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.

Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.

On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.

The S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.

Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.

“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.

The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.

The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.

The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.

Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more."

MY COMMENT

NO....I dont agree that the economy is STRONG.....I think that is just surface ILLUSION. I happen to think that the economy is more fragile at the moment than people think. The re-opening has been a struggle and the economy is at SEVERE RISK.....from......the FED, the government, health bureaucrats, and economic bureaucrats. SOME areas of PRIVATE BUSINESS are strong....but the general economy......NO, not at all. Of course the general economy is very different than the stock markets. BUT....if the general economy is in TURMOIL and lurching around.....the stock markets tend to be impacted by the psychology of it all.

I have absolutely ZERO confidence in the competence of those in any of the above groups that are trying to direct the country and the economy. Actually......the fact that they are trying to direct everything......and think that is even possible is the BIG problem. The path to economic success is to.....GET OUT OF THE WAY.....and let business and the economy do its own thing.

The more those from the local level to the national level try to control the economy and everything else....the worse things will be. The KEY to success is to implement policies that create ABSOLUTE economic, business, and personal freedom and get out of the way.

 

It is the time of the year for PREDICTIONS. Here are a bunch for the SP500. Keep in mind that the SP500 is currently at 4538.

Wall Street's 2022 outlook for stocks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-streets-2022-outlook-for-stocks-153935831.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Wall Street’s top stock market strategists are telling clients where they see the stock market heading in the year ahead.

Some high-level themes I’m seeing in their reports: Stocks are likely to rise, but gains will be limited because valuations are high. Earnings growth should be strong, fueled by consumer spending and capital expenditures. Risks include supply chains issues persisting, labor shortages continuing, and monetary policy tightening more quickly than expected. Most of these outlooks were published before the Omicron variant emerged, but strategists generally agree that the economy is better prepared for new waves of Covid infections.

Below is a roundup of 14 of these 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500¹ including highlights from the strategists’ commentary. The targets range from 4,400 to 5,300. The S&P closed on Friday at 4,538, which implies returns between -3% and +17%:

• Barclays - 4,800 (12/2/2021): “Household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend and China hard-landing are key tail risks.“ (via Jonathan Ferro)
  
  
• DWS, David Bianco - 5,000 (12/1/2021): “2022 returns driven by earnings growth. Higher volatility with potentially significant intra-year sector rotations depending on level of real yields.”
  
  
• JPMorgan, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas - 5,050 (11/30/2021): “While there have been sporadic setbacks with COVID-19 variants (e.g. delta, omicron), this needs to be seen in the context of higher natural and vaccine-acquired immunity, significantly lower mortality, and new antiviral treatments… With this in mind, the key risk to our outlook is a hawkish shift in [central bank] policy, especially if post-pandemic dislocations persist (e.g. further delay in China reopening, supply-chain issues, labor shortages continue).” (via MarketWatch)
  
  
• Yardeni Research, Ed Yardeni - 4,800 (11/28/2021): “Assuming, as I do, that Omicron, the new variant of Covid, will turn out to be no worse than the Delta variant, I still expect that the S&P 500 will continue to rise to new record highs… The Fed may decide to taper faster in response to higher-than-expected inflation. But, it would still be adding liquidity, though at a slower pace, to the economy’s punch bowl—which already has plenty of liquidity from previous rounds of the Fed’s largess.“ (via LinkedIn)
  
  
• Bank of America, Savita Subramanian - 4,600 (11/23/2021): “Drivers for our outlook: a higher discount rate, US GDP primacy vs. China, rising capex but slowing consumption, the end of the ‘equity shrinkage’ bull case.”²
  
  
• Jefferies, Sean Darby - 5,000 (11/23/2021): “Growth – Real and Nominal – is not likely to be a problem in 2022 as the US consumer, corporate, government and possibly the banks unleash their spending. But base effects work against earnings and high valuations meaning that market multiples matter.“
  
  
• BNP Paribas, Greg Boutle - 5,100 (11/22/2021): “We expect to see some compression of price/earnings ratio multiples as rates rise. However, strong earnings growth could still translate into a ~10% total return, in our view.“
  
  
• BMO, Brian Belski - 5,300 (11/18/2021): “An accommodative Fed, excessively low interest rates, potential peaking inflation and supply chain fears, and positive earnings growth REMAINS a very good recipe for equities – PERIOD.“
  
  
• Goldman Sachs, David Kostin - 5,100 (11/16/2021): “Decelerating economic growth, a tightening Fed, and rising real yields suggest investors should expect modestly below-average returns next year. The S&P 500 has historically generated an average 12-month return of 8% in environments of positive but slowing economic activity and rising real interest rates...“
  
  
• Wells Fargo Investment Institute - 5,100-5,300 (11/16/2021): “We expect supportive monetary policy along with public and private spending to push equity markets higher through the year.“ (via Wells Fargo)
  
  
• Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson - 4,400 (11/15/2021): “With financial conditions tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indices looks unattractive at current prices. However, strong nominal GDP growth should continue to provide plenty of good investment opportunities at the stock level for active managers.“
  
  
• RBC, Lori Calvasina - 5,050 (11/11/2021): “As for why we feel constructive (beyond the strong economy), cash deployment trends are positive, frothy earnings revisions are no longer an overhang on the market, individual investor sentiment turned so bearish recently that it briefly gave a contrarian buy signal for the stock market in October, and fiscal policy tilts supportive with corporate tax hikes less of a threat. The onset of tapering and proximity of Fed hikes have kept investors uneasy, but stocks normally post gains post lift off as long as the economy is strong enough to handle it.“
  
  
• UBS, Keith Parker - 4,850 (09/07/2021): “We forecast S&P 500 EPS to rise to $60 in Q2 '22, inclusive of a tax hit, which would support 5,000+ for the S&P on a 21x trailing P/E. Slower forecast economic growth in H2 '22 though and a flattening out of quarterly earnings at ~$60 accordingly should mean that gains are front loaded next year.“
  
  
• Credit Suisse, Jonathan Golub - 5,000 (08/09/2021): “We see upside to estimates as empty shelves are restocked and pricing power is maintained. Consumer spending should improve as the unemployment rate drops further, accompanied by higher wages.

MY COMMENT

Most of these are playing it safe. They are mostly predicting gains in the historic, average, range for the SP500.

HERE is my personal prediction. The predictions above are WAY LOW. First there is still four weeks left in 2021. So....there is potential for the SP500 to be as high as 4600 to 4700 by year end. therefore......I am predicting a gain for the SP500 next year of 16%.......PLUS.......the dividend potential......for a TOTAL RETURN of 18%. I believe the current fears over the virus are WAY overblown. I also believe we are struggling through the early stages of the re-opening and we have the majority of the opening ahead of us........to happen in 2022. All in all.....I am seeing a year next year that is very similar to this year.

The greatest negative issues next year.......the potential for government to overreact and push us into a recession............and.......the potential for the FED to royally screw things up by their......UNNECESSARY....emphasis on inflation.

I believe that we WILL see a recession some time over the next few years......perhaps in 2023. BUT.....that is off in the future and who knows what will happen for the positive or the negative before than.

 

My weekend virus update.

LOL......we ban travel from Africa and take all sorts of steps.......and......now from what I am seeing.......I would guess that we have just as many if not more OMI cases than any other country. I believe it has been around much longer than people think.

HERE is what I consider the latest information. As was reported......and ignored by the fear mongers.......this variation spreads quickly but is very mild in symptoms. In the end this might be the best case to reach herd immunity........since the majority of people seem to be catching this variant in spite of being vaccinated.

Omicron appears more contagious, less dangerous than other variants
A possible scenario is that Omicron makes the coronavirus less scary, Hadassah’s Prof. Dror Mevorach said.

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-we...id-is-becoming-more-similar-to-the-flu-687924

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"New data published on Saturday suggest that the Omicron corona variant is more contagious but not as dangerous as other variants, according to Prof. Dror Mevorach, a senior physician from Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center.

“We have to say this with a lot of caution, but if we look at the currently available information, there is reason to believe that the variant is spreading fast, but maybe it is not so dangerous,” Mevorach said.

According to South Africa’s Tshwane District Omicron Variant Patient Profile – Tshwane being the epicenter of the Omicron outbreak – 80% of hospital admissions in the previous two weeks were people below age 50, the vast majority of whom did not require oxygen support.

This can be explained in several ways, including the lower age of the patients, or that the course of the Omicron variant is milder.

Some experts suggested that if Omicron is more infectious but milder, it could make corona more similar to the flu. Mevorach agreed, saying “it would really be good news for the world. I think that we have had indications of vaccinated people getting infected, but it appears that their disease is mild.”

If this is so, he said different scenarios might emerge.

“We might need to accept that some people are going to get sick, and treat them with the antiviral treatments that are about to become available, or the vaccines might be slightly tweaked to be more effective,” he said. “However, I’m not really sure that we will need to do it. The first option might be good enough.”

Mevorach also expressed optimism that the protection granted by the booster will last for a long time.
“What I have seen in immunological studies is that the booster really increases the antibodies, and I think it will give a longer-lasting immunity,” he said."

MY COMMENT

YES.....but why let a nice panic and fake crisis go to waste. At this point there is NOTHING I have seen to show that this variation is going to be any worse than prior variations.......and......in fact, EVERYTHING I have seen says the opposite......a very MILD variation.

Personally I dont sell stocks on this sort of BS. BUT......whatever. Panic selling on this sort of news is simply DUMB.

As usual in the end it will turn out that it was......the so called professionals.......doing all the panic selling......the little people will turn out to have sat and done nothing. I am very glad to be one of the little people in this regard.

I continue to be fully invested for the LONG TERM as usual.

 

So......we experienced somewhat of a BITCOIN and CRYPTO crash this weekend. I say "we" since I happen to own about 1/55 of one Bitcoin.

Behind crypto's ugly weekend, 'cascading' selloffs and dashed hopes for Bitcoin $100K

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/behi...s-dash-expectations-for-crypto-161727320.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

""Hodl" no more?

The grim weekend cryptocurrency drubbing that dragged Bitcoin (BTC) under $50,000 and ravaged other digital coins has decisively tempered the bullishness of investors — some of whom were predicting a run at $100,000 just weeks ago.

Fueled by uncertainty over the Federal Reserve inching toward tighter monetary policy in the face of surging inflation, and global fears over the new Omicron variant of COVID-19, the dramatic crash was super-charged by liquidations in the crypto derivatives market, market players say.

Only Friday, Bitcoin sat above $57,000 before the risk aversion hammering stocks spilled over into crypto world — dragging the premier digital coin down by as much as 20% on the day to below $43,000. On Sunday, the currency bounced by over 2% to trade around 49,000.

According to estimates by Larry Cermak at The Block Research, nearly $5 billion in open interest was wiped out in as little as half an hour. That helped to shave cryptocurrency’s total market capitalization down to $around $2.3 trillion, off sharply from last month’s record high above $2.6 trillion.

In some parts of the market, BTC’s price collapsed even lower, with some exchanges pricing it as low as $28,000 according to Jason Lau, chief operating officer of the cryptocurrency exchange Okcoin.

“As is usually the case, cascading liquidations in the derivative markets drove exaggerated moves,” Okcoin’s Lau explained.

Because fewer people typically trade on weekends, the crypto markets often deal with much lower levels of liquidity – providing even less of a buffer against nosedives. Lau and investors say thin market conditions fed the carnage in Saturday’s price action.

On Sunday, some cryptocurrencies recovered a bit of lost ground. Ether (ETH-USD) plunged by over 20% but clawed back some losses, currently floating around $4,100. Smaller blockchain units where liquidity is even lower, like Solana (SOL1-USD), are also nursing a 20% net correction.

Yet bucking the trend was Terra’s Luna (LUNA1-USD) – a stablecoin-pegged token that's seen the most significant crypto gains in the last several weeks. Up over 10% on the day, Luna flipped its initial slide into a weekend bull run that's logging back-to-back all time highs.

'Went South'

Between Friday and early Saturday, the premier cryptocurrency crashed from $57,000 to around $45,000.
This weekend’s selloff is just the latest of several flash crashes this year that have sent some investors reeling, even as El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele – whose country became the first sovereign government to embrace Bitcoin as legal tender – proclaimed that he “bought the dip.”

The “buy the dip” philosophy is spurred by Bitcoin investors’ belief that no matter how sharp a drop, the asset will continue to rise over the long term, thanks to free spending governments and loose monetary policy sparking inflation.

“Fundamentally, the continuation of monetary expansion and declining purchasing power is not disappearing and will only drive more interest into scarce assets like bitcoin,” Okcoin’s Lau told Yahoo Finance.

But short-term sentiment around the asset has clearly shifted. Bitcoin has experienced “violent swings” of 20 to 30% in previous bull runs before reaching its peak, according to Anto Paroian, chief operating officer of ARK36, a crypto hedge fund.

Yet this time around, BTC’s 20-week moving average – a key bull market indicator – “has now been decisively breached,” Paroian told Yahoo Finance, warning that “the outlook is currently bearish in the short to medium term” as some investors look to shed their riskier assets.

With the Fed seemingly more concerned about inflation and Omnicron fears widening, investors are walking back hopes for Bitcoin hitting $100,000 – a “much anticipated milestone,” according to Baxter Hines, chief investment officer of the Texas-based Honeycomb Digital Investments.

Bitcoin’s rally has been fueled in part by borrowed money or leveraged positions on derivatives exchanges, with some using the digital coin as margin collateral. As such, a heavily-leveraged market is vulnerable to shakeouts that exacerbate violent moves.

Over the last quarter, money locked in decentralized finance protocols surpassed $100 billion, according to DeFi Pulse, a fourfold surge since the start of the year.

And when crypto prices “went South” on Friday, so did the collateral-backing loans made to derivatives traders, Hines pointed out – ramping up margin calls that force traders to liquidate positions to cover losses, as well as volatility.

With open interest already down sharply, the drop could get even worse when Monday’s regular session begins. That’s because the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is accounting for an increasing level of open interest volume on BTC futures, doesn't operate on Saturdays.

“It'll be interesting to see what happens when Monday comes around,” Lau added."

MY COMMENT

It WILL be interesting to see how it goes this week. You have to expect these sorts of drops with Crypto.......it is volatile, extremely speculative, and very young. Other than my TINY fraction of one Bitcoin......I have no interest in GAMBLING on this......."thing".

I know that lots and lots of younger people like the Crypto space. That is fine.....it is a personal choice. At least......be REASONABLE.....in how much money you dedicate to this asset.......perhaps 5-10% at most. As to using leverage on Crypto........good luck.

 

A solid open today for stocks and the averages.

My portfolio is being held to minimal gains by Nvidia and Tesla.......primarily Nvidia. I have not looked.......but......I assume that the drop in Nvidia today is due to the ARM deal. No surprise that deal is tanking.....it has been walking dead for many months now.

Over time the ARM deal took on a life of its own in the media. Every story of Nvidia mentioned it and it became.........an unnecessary and irrelevant......story line for the company. I say.....GOOD RIDDANCE. The sooner the company gets past this story line the better. This merger is NOT necessary to the company success going forward and is just a DRAG on the stock.

I HATE to see a GREAT company being pulled down.....even short term.....by a story line like the ARM deal......it is totally unjustified. BUT.....that is how things work in the modern world of media and short term thinking by investors........or.....I should say "TRADERS".

 

Look out DIAMOND CARTEL. If this trend continues there is going to be a massacre.....in the diamond business......specifically DeBeers. This trend.....if it becomes the norm going forward.....along with advances in technology.....WILL cause a long term significant DROP in the value and price of stones and diamonds.

Man-made diamonds are the new engagement ring trend

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/04/business/engagement-ring-lab-diamond/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"For many couples who recently cemented their commitment to each other with an engagement, the choice of ring featured not natural but man-made gemstones — including the center diamond.

While a diamond continues to be the most popular type of engagement stone, nearly one in four engagement rings in 2021 featured a man-made center stone, not necessarily always a diamond, up 11% in the past two years, according to a report from wedding planning website The Knot."

The popularity of lab-made diamonds is growing because of the eco-conscious mindset of Millennial consumers and a subset of GenZ-ers, said the report, which was based on a survey conducted in November of 5,000 US couples who became engaged between January and November 2021.

Another factor fueling the preference for a synthetic diamonds: They're less expensive than mined diamonds. They can cost as much as 30% less, said Shelley Brown, The Knot's senior fashion and beauty editor. Lab-made diamonds and other gemstones have pushed into the mainstream in the last four to five years, she noted.

Lab-made goes mainstream
Leading jewelry retailers are also driving that effort.

This May the world's largest jewelry company, Pandora (PANDY), made a major shift by announcing it would stop using mined diamonds in its jewelry.

Instead, the Copenhagen-based company is shifting to lab-created diamonds, which it said have the same "optical, chemical, thermal and physical characteristics" of a mined diamond and are graded by the same standards known as the 4Cs: cut, color, clarity and carat.

Pandora said it's instituting the change as part of its own effort to sell sustainable jewelry, and also because consumers are asking for it.

"This is the high season for bridal jewelry. There are a tremendous number of couples who get engaged from Thanksgiving through to the New Year, and we're ready to go," said Jamie Singleton, president at Signet Jewelers, which owns Zales, Kay Jewelers and Jared.

Singleton said three big trends dominating engagement ring preferences include larger stones of 1 to 3 carats, yellow gold and fancy center stone shapes like oval, pear and emerald.

She also sees the growth in demand for lab-created diamonds.

"This is very Millennial-based, and frankly they are the demographic that represents most of the shoppers in the bridal category anyway," said Singleton. "The lesser cost of a lab-created diamond allows couples to buy a larger stone."

Currently, 4.7% of the specialty diamond jewelry market in the United States is represented by lab-grown diamonds. That figure is up a whopping 34% from 2020, said Edahn Golan, an industry analyst and founder of Edahn Golan Diamond Research & Data.
"Regarding the cost difference, a 1-carat engagement ring with a lab-grown diamond can cost 60% less than a 1-carat natural diamond ring," said Golan.

Although a majority of shoppers at its stores are still buying natural diamonds, Singleton said Signet has expanded its man-made bridal jewelry selection this year. This includes a new "True lab-created Diamonds by Vera Wang LOVE" collection for Zales, which includes 16 engagement ring styles that feature 101 facet lab-grown diamond centers, as well as the new "LEO Legacy lab-created diamond" collection featuring 21 engagement rings and bands at Kay Jewelers.

But there is one important consideration for anyone buying lab-created diamonds: their resale value.
"A lab-created diamond is really not as big of an investment as a natural diamond," said Brown. "Consumers may not be educated about this."

Martin Rapaport, founder of the Rapaport Diamond Report and chair of the Rapaport Group, agreed.
"Synthetic diamonds are not subject to natural scarcity like a mined diamond. They can be produced in unlimited quantities by machines," said Rapaport. "So they don't really retain a resale value like natural diamonds."

"I think it is misleading to sell man-made diamonds without this important disclosure even if some consumers may not care about the resale value," he said."

MY COMMENT

HILARIOUS that the pushers of "real" diamonds jump on the resale value bandwagon. Have you ever tried to sell a diamond? Resale prices are TERRIBLE compared to what you paid in the first place.

Good for you MILLENNIALS. A diamond is NOT an investment.....it is a commodity controlled by a cartel. There is absolutely NO physical reason to buy a natural diamond....the man made stones are EXACTLY the same.

Young people are not DUMB......they would rather take those big bucks and put them into a REAL investment like bitcoin, or whatever. Reminds me of the sterling silver and fine china industry.......young people dont care.....and.....you can not even give away the old family china when grandma dies.

 

I am not going to say much about the market today.......I am going to TIPTOE past the graveyard and hope that the markets just quietly move on up today. So....here is a little article on market direction and sentiment.

What Fear and Greed’s Tug of War Says About Sentiment Today
What does sentiment’s recent flip-flopping mean for investors?

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...-greeds-tug-of-war-says-about-sentiment-today

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"What to make of sentiment today? After some areas of froth appeared to signal the return of investor ebullience mere weeks ago, the Omicron variant’s emergence has wiped away much of that renewed enthusiasm. This flipping-and-flopping could bewilder those following closely. But to us, sentiment’s recent seesawing highlights the importance of not overthinking near-term swings—moods can change quickly and don’t dictate where stocks head next. We think it is better to take a step back and view longer-term trends.

Before Omicron entered financial headlines, some pockets of euphoria from early this year returned to the spotlight. Interest in electric vehicle (EV) companies skyrocketed as investors hunted for the next Tesla—likely explaining why EV startup Lucid’s market cap topped Ford’s and GM’s despite just starting vehicle production in September. In mid-November, another EV startup, Rivian, hit a market cap of around $153 billion—exceeding Volkswagen—making it the largest US company with zero revenue.[ii] Enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies resurged, too. After a summertime slump, bitcoin rebounded in the fall, with prices nearing $70,000 in November.[iii] That autumn climb had some crypto “experts” predicting bitcoin will reach $100,000 by yearend (for reference, its price is $57,229 as of December 1).[iv] That zeal has spread to anything seemingly attached to cryptocurrencies, with venture capitalists globally pouring more money into crypto and blockchain start-ups this year than the previous 10 years combined.[v] These developments had some investors starting to see froth—much like the pockets of excess that existed early this year in special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs).

But then came the Omicron variant. US stocks suffered their worst Black Friday on record last week, and after Monday’s rebound, global markets slid again on Tuesday and Wednesday. Fear dots the financial pages, and a well-known chorus of worries returned to headlines. Will harsh COVID restrictions—or even lockdowns—come back? Are existing vaccines effective against the latest variant? Are central bankers removing their monetary “support” prematurely—especially after Fed chair Jerome Powell just suggested the Fed may wrap up its quantitative easing (QE) bond purchases more quickly than first thought?

So how should investors view these sentiment swings? In our view, take a step back: The vacillations in investors’ moods show sentiment is neither full-on frothy nor panic-stricken. Yes, we agree narrow segments of the market smacked of euphoria early in 2021. SPACs led the way at the start of the year before imploding, and EV startups seem to be cut from a similar cloth as other recent investing fads. But pockets of froth aren’t unusual during bull markets, and they don’t signal market peaks. See how SPACs have fared compared to broader markets this year. (Exhibit 1)

Exhibit 1: SPAC Euphoria Didn’t Make Its Way to Broader Markets


Source: Refinitiv and FactSet, as of 11/29/2021. IPOX SPAC ETF price and S&P 500 Price Index, 12/31/2020 – 11/17/2021. Both series indexed to 100 at 12/31/2020.

If euphoria had infected stocks broadly, we would expect to see broad equity indexes fall alongside the deflated categories. Yet those implosions remained largely confined to niche corners of the market.

Bitcoin’s resurgence strikes us as another sign euphoria isn’t here, counterintuitive as that may be. Early this year, bitcoin spiked as people hyped cryptocurrencies going mainstream as more companies added them to reserves and started taking them as payment. Now, bitcoin and other cryptos’ popularity seems at least partly tied to their purported powers as an inflation hedge. While we think that is wrongheaded—neither theory nor the limited available history support bitcoin as a useful inflation hedge—it is telling the impetus to own cryptos now stems from fear, not cheery anticipation about their future as money.

This tug-of-war between bulls and bears suggests neither greed nor fear dominates today. A host of sentiment metrics we track suggest moods have generally trended more optimistic lately: Initial public offering (IPO) activity has accelerated; consumer and fund manager sentiment surveys have perked up; and experts’ expectations for 2022 are mildly bullish (and, more notably, few major strategists are bearish). But investors going from feeling FOMO (fear of missing out) to just plain ol’ fear in mere days suggests sentiment isn’t overextended. In our view, sentiment can signal a turning point when nearly everyone is of one mind—and given sentiment’s recent vacillations, that doesn’t seem like the case today."

MY COMMENT

I agree completely. There is no EUPHORIA today......no market froth. At times the markets take off.....but to me the underlying mindset is.......more toward fear and caution than froth. Of course this STUFF is reflected in the short term. Long term......is another story. At some point we will get past the re-opening and the virus will cease to be a news story. Life will go on as will the markets. Long term investors will be rewarded as they always are.

The virus BUMPS in the road happening now will be distant memory....with OLD posters on investing boards.......reminiscing.....about the old days when the virus screwed up the economy and the markets. Younger investors will not care about that old ancient history.......it will just be LIKE a bunch of old people talking about walking to school in the snow.

Of course......the markets will be dealing with NEW negatives and events.....just like throughout investing history.

 

MICROSOFT.......what an EPIC success story and COME-BACK. A triumph of good management.

Microsoft is Yahoo Finance’s Company of the Year 2021

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-yahoo-finance-company-of-the-year-2021-143057560.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Microsoft (MSFT) has had a stunning year. After nearly 50 years in business, the tech giant crashed through the $2 trillion market capitalization mark in June, joining an exclusive club that includes Apple and, for a brief moment, Google parent Alphabet. As of Dec. 6, Microsoft was worth a staggering $2.4 trillion.

Over the last 52 weeks, Microsoft’s stock price has skyrocketed 45%, easily outpacing the broader S&P 500, which rose 21%, not to mention rivals Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), which saw their stock prices increase by 23% and 5.5%, respectively.

The company’s financial reports were just as impressive as its market cap. Over the last 12 months, the software giant has reported a whopping $176 billion in revenue — a nearly 20% year-over-year increase.

But Microsoft has always been a cash cow. It operates in the high-margin software sector.

What’s truly impressive is that, under CEO Satya Nadella, the 46-year-old company is branching out and thriving in new businesses including cloud computing, connectivity apps like Teams, and social apps like LinkedIn.

Equally remarkable is that Microsoft has flourished while avoiding the public backlash or antitrust scrutiny its Big Tech peers like Amazon, Facebook (FB), and Apple have faced. It’s for those reasons and more that Yahoo Finance has named Microsoft its Company of the Year for 2021.

Microsoft reinvented itself by cannibalizing itself
Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded Microsoft in 1975, creating what would go on to become the world’s most widely used operating system. Gates remained CEO for decades until he stepped aside in 2000 and Steve Ballmer took the reins. The duo saw Microsoft through a number of major product releases and challenges, the most significant of which was Microsoft’s antitrust battle with the Justice Department that ran until 2002.

And while Microsoft is a reborn tech giant in 2021, the distraction caused by its antitrust fight and a series of miscues meant it spent years fighting for relevance among its Big Tech peers.

Microsoft failed to penetrate the smartphone market, despite spending more than $7 billion to buy Nokia. While LinkedIn has performed well, Microsoft’s social media capabilities are still dwarfed by Facebook And when was the last time you tried to Bing your own name rather than Google (GOOG, GOOGL) it?

But in 2010, the company launched Azure, a version of Windows powered by the cloud, and it hasn’t looked back. It’s now one of the world’s largest cloud providers, offering the latest cloud services and coming in second in market share only to Amazon’s Amazon Web Services.

Those efforts, however, required Microsoft to reinvent itself. Rather than peddling individual pieces of software, it began selling subscriptions that generate recurring revenue. While the individual sales provide more short-term revenue, subscriptions bring in more cash overall.

Its Office products, for instance, are now primarily available as cloud-based products for both commercial and consumer applications. And in fiscal Q1 2022, that meant revenue growth of 18% and 10% for the commercial and consumer businesses, respectively.

“For so long, [Microsoft] resisted cloud computing and opening up their software and running it on other devices because they thought it would cannibalize Windows, because that was their profit machine,” University of Pennsylvania Wharton School senior fellow Scott Snyder told Yahoo Finance.

“Everybody at that time saw cloud as this nascent business,” said Snyder, author of “Goliath’s Revenge: How Established Companies Turn the Tables on Digital Disruptors.”

But Nadella — who helped nurture Microsoft’s cloud business before becoming the company’s third CEO in 2014 — saw the opportunity. And it’s the cloud that pushed Microsoft over the $2 trillion mark in 2021, according to analysts.

“But then you start to add in these other things they're bringing in whether it's LinkedIn, whether it's other types of platforms that can allow people to start to build on Microsoft Solutions. They're really set up well to help enterprises for digital transformation for a long time,” Snyder added.

While Microsoft had roughly 20% of global cloud market share in 2020 behind Amazon’s 41%, the software company is slowly gaining on the Everything Store.

Microsoft’s cloud business has been particularly unstoppable in the past year. Over the last four quarters, the segment has exploded with year over year increases of 34% in Q2, 23% in Q3, 30% in Q4, and 36% in fiscal Q1 2022.

“I think investors under appreciated the story even going into 2021, thinking there wasn't that much gasoline left in the growth tank,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told Yahoo Finance.

“Instead, it's actually accelerated, because it's a perfect storm of demand. It's with more enterprises moving to the cloud. You've seen Azure gain share versus the likes of Amazon, and AWS. And the stock has now started to get rerated on being a cloud company, rather than the traditional Microsoft. It's no longer your grandfather's Microsoft,” Ives added.

Even more room for growth
Microsoft’s cloud growth doesn’t show any signs of stopping either. The company now offers cloud-based versions of IT infrastructure, web hosting services, and Office, as well as on-premises versions of its server software.

According to Ives, only 30% of Microsoft’s enterprise install base has shifted to the cloud, leaving an enormous growth opportunity ahead.

“In our opinion, it's not a matter of if, it's when this company hits a $3 trillion market cap,” he said.

It’s certainly on its way there, adding $500 billion to its value in just five months. And the company is continuing to make all of the right moves, explained Michael Cusumano, deputy dean at MIT’s Sloan School of Management.

“They're growing again, because usage of the cloud has been growing,” Cusumano said. “They’re in some very powerful positions.”

Microsoft continues to look to the future
While Nadella and company could kick back and rake in the cash by selling its cloud offerings to its existing install base of customers, Microsoft is continuing to innovate. In April, the company purchased AI pioneer Nuance Communications for $19.7 billion, a move that will benefit everything from Microsoft’s healthcare efforts to its customer engagement offerings.

The company is also diving into the nascent metaverse space through its Mesh Teams software. The idea is to have colleagues located around the world participate in virtual meetings using everything from AR and VR headsets to their laptops, creating a sense of presence and making it feel like everyone is in the same room.

At the same time, Microsoft is digging deeper into its gaming business with its Xbox Game Pass cloud gaming, a platform powered by Microsoft’s own cloud servers. The service not only marks Microsoft as a leader in the shift to cloud gaming, but it also ensures younger users recognize the Microsoft nameplate. It doesn’t hurt that it also provides potential cloud customers with proof that Microsoft’s cloud servers are robust enough for even the most demanding applications.

And thanks to its more open nature — you can find Microsoft products on most any operating system — it’s gained plenty of goodwill across the tech industry.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that Microsoft’s current trajectory will hold. After all, plenty of rivals hope to knock it from its pedestal — whether that includes Amazon’s AWS, Slack, Google’s Workspace, Sony’s PlayStation, or SalesForce.

For now, however, the once under-the-radar software company is among the most innovative companies on the planet."

MY COMMENT

This story is a story of MANAGEMENT SUCCESS.......after....total management failure.

I owned this stock from about 1990 till 2002 when I sold all shares. At that time the company was a FAILING GIANT that looked like it was headed for the trash heap of history. It was a one trick pony that was being passed by and their management......GATES........and than the even more DISASTROUS BALLMER........had no idea what to do. In fact management in the early 2000's......BALLMER.....did not even REALIZE that there was a severe problem....they were too caught up in their own celebrity EGO TRIP.

At the point that I sold all shares in 2002, I had no plans to ever own this stock again. Later....in the past five years......the company's success and the new management COMPELLED me to buy the stock again. The stock is now the MOST successful holding in my portfolio......exceeding companies like Amazon. By successful......I mean......having the greatest CAPITAL GAIN of any of my ten stocks.

THIS turnaround is a CLASSIC lesson in the POWER of MANAGEMENT.

 

Speaking of my ten holdings and those with the most capital gain.....for me. I am always mentally shocked when I look at the list. My BRAIN always expects to see Amazon at the top. BUT.....it never is. Here is the list of my TOP holdings in terms of CAPITAL GAIN over the time that I have held them.

1. Microsoft.

2. Costco.

3. Nvidia.

4. Google.

5. Amazon.

I know the reality.......but.....my brain always has a hard time with seeing old COSTCO up there in the top of the pack. Of course......all five of these stocks are AMAZING. They have all been so successful it is sort of disrespectful to rank them. PLUS.....they are ALL very close in the gains that they have racked up for me......except for....MICROSOFT........which is well above the rest.

I am very pleased with my current portfolio and have NO plans to make any changes. I believe that I can RUN WITH this particular portfolio for a very long time. All of the ten companies that I own have HUGE upside heading into the future.

The most important single factor for any of these companies going forward.......MANAGEMENT.

 

The NASDAQ has been the.......runt puppy.....of the averages lately and today seems to be following the usual short term pattern. The MID-MORNING slump.

FORTUNATELY......short term patterns and happenings are NOT relevant to long term returns as an investor. In fact.......getting caught up in the short term DRAMA......is KRYPTONITE for an actual investor. SO.......as usual.....I dont care. What I do care about is the NICE BIG FAT GAIN that I am going to lock in for 2021 in about four weeks. After that gain is recorded in the........HISTORICAL RECORD.......and I celebrate by......CONSUMING MASS QUANTITIES......I will start over again as a LOWLY INVESTOR with a ZERO GAIN for 2022.

This is the same thing that I did every year as a business owner. I ran my financial year from April to April because of the tax year. Every year at the end of April I would......pay my taxes, contribute the max to my KEOGH PLAN........and STRIP OUT all the rest of the busines money that I built up over the past year and transfer it to my personal brokerage account. I would leave myself TWO MONTHS of overhead money for the new year. I used this system to keep the pressure on myself.....EVERY YEAR. I would start EVERY year with only two months overhead.....so....I (my business) had to produce to survive and thrive. I did that every year for the 22 years that I was in business.

I saw lots of small businesses FAIL due to complacency. They would get some money and think that they could COAST ALONG.....it never ended well.

 

Well....while I was typing the NASDAQ has survived the first mid morning bump and is now positive. NO....I am not making any predictions for the day or the week........at least over the next hour or two.

 

EARLIER I posted my TOP FIVE stocks by $$$$ TOTAL CAPITAL GAIN they have produced for me. HERE is my top five by $$$$ MARKET VALUE in my account.

1. APPLE.

2. AMAZON.

3. MICROSOFT.

4. NIKE.

5. COSTCO.

As I have said many many times on here......I let winners run. I do NOT re-balance my holdings. I TOTALLY believe in a very concentrated portfolio of ONLY ten to fifteen stocks. At the moment it is ten holdings. If I sell some holding I tend to sell it ALL. Selling means that the holding is NOT meeting my........long term...... expectations. So over time each stock achieves its own level in the portfolio.

Of course....this type of data is MEANINGLESS since.......each holding was acquired at different times and some have been held for a long time....others for less time. Dividends and dividend reinvesting also skew this result.

 

I made a point of ignoring the markets today after mid morning. It did the trick......a nicely UP day.

I was of course in the green. BUT......I lost out to the SP500 by 0.57%. I will take additional MONEY any day of the week.....so I am satisfied with the results for the day.

It is NICE to start a new week.....especially one of the final four weeks of the year......with BOOMING gains to the averages. LETS BUILD FROM HERE.

 

I dont want to get all carried away with being positive.....(see above)......so here are the market threats for next year. Guess what........same threats as the past two years.......YAWN.

Stock Market Trends for 2022
While there is a lot to be optimistic about in the new year, these market threats will persist in 2022.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/stock-market-trends-for-2022

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"This year has proven to be a profitable year to be invested in the stock market. All three major indexes – the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq – all set records in 2021.

But let's put things in perspective. As the economy is returning to full capacity, there are still many uncertainties.

First, the new coronavirus strain, the omicron variant, has thrown a wrench into the prospects of global economic recovery. Second, high inflation persists, and last, the moves the Federal Reserve will make on interest rates are yet to be determined. The main concern is how these uncertainties, coupled together, will affect the stock market in the future.

What is the environment we are headed into in 2022 and how can investors position themselves for strong stock market returns? Here’s what investors need to keep top of mind as they head into the new year:

• How higher interest rates will affect the stock market.
• Slowing economic growth in 2022.
• How to invest in stocks in 2022.

How Higher Interest Rates Will Affect the Stock Market

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell shared with Congress at the end of November that he suspects that inflation may stick around longer than anticipated. Markets are pricing in an approximately 80% chance that the Fed will start raising interest rates by the middle of 2022 and about an 87% chance of more than one rate hike by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool, using data as of Dec. 3, 2021. With inflation being an issue now, that puts pressure on the Fed to increase rates, but this decision ultimately depends on how strong the economic recovery will be as 2022 plays out.

The rise in interest rates is going to be a change for the markets. But it won’t necessarily hurt the appetite for investing in stocks. Rather, it could degrade the performance of some corners of the market, particularly growth stocks, which would favor value-oriented names, says James Ragan, director of wealth management research at D.A. Davidson in Seattle.

Higher interest rates are a headwind for growth-oriented equities, but not all stocks will respond the same way, says Don Calcagni, CIO at Mercer Advisors. Growth-oriented companies that have been trading at much higher valuations compared to their earnings should come under greater stress than lower-priced, discounted value stocks, like some in financials and energy, he says.

It’s also important to understand that while the Fed may move to raise interest rates in 2022 from their current near-zero levels, the COVID-19 picture could challenge that. That’s why Calcagni says there will likely be a "slow lift-off" into interest rates. "At the moment, it doesn't appear that we are going to experience a rapid lift-off in interest rates, and that will give markets time to adjust."

As the Fed hikes interest rates, it can be expected that the market will experience volatility, but overall, experts are optimistic about equities.

Slowing Economic Growth in 2022

The U.S. economy in 2021 was focused on economic recovery after the severe disruptions of 2020 and it recorded robust growth in much of the year. The first quarter of 2021 saw GDP growth of 6.4% on an annualized basis and second-quarter GDP grew even faster, at 6.7%. But the expansion in the first half of the year was followed by growth of just 2.1% in the third quarter. This drop was led by weaker consumer spending and supply chain bottlenecks.

The economic picture in 2021 was also roiled by an inflation surge. Some of the catalysts for inflation included supply chain disruptions, an emerging labor deficit and continued demand for goods and services – a combination that has put upward pressure on prices.

The fastest rate of economic recovery has likely already taken place, and while investors can expect continued economic growth in the U.S., it may not be at the same rate of growth as 2021. Many of these challenges present today will not go away in the short term, so investors need to be aware of these challenges to know how to navigate the markets.

Calcagni says investors will be faced with a triple threat in 2022. "The real theme for investors in 2022 is they need to balance the risks to growth, inflation and interest rates," he says.

While U.S. companies are expected to grow next year, they may not be at the same pace as 2021. That said, investors should extend themselves to investing in the global economy given greater economic growth estimates abroad. When we look at the economic growth forecasts, there will be more growth in economies outside of the U.S.

Calcagni says there is greater economic growth potential in markets outside the U.S. coming out of the pandemic. "We are projecting greater economic growth in Europe and Southeast Asia and South Asia than we are in the United States," he says.

How to Invest in Stocks in 2022

What does this mean for equities and where should investors be looking for opportunities? Experts say investors will want to look at durable businesses that maintain strong earnings and cash flows. These will be the companies that are best equipped for 2022's particular risk factors.

"Investors should be looking at tilting their portfolio towards high profitability companies, companies that can expand their margins, that have high degrees of operating leverage, companies that can pass on price increases in their supply chains to their consumers," Calcagni says.

Sectors that fit into this camp include financials, energy and health care. Investors should be looking at companies with these characteristics and, most important, make sure they have reasonable valuations. There are many ways to measure a stock's valuation, but a basic one to look for is a relatively low price-earnings ratio.

With 2022's hurdles in mind, an investing strategy for investors that will never go out of style and one that is important now more than ever before is diversification. It's important for investors to diversify their portfolios to manage market risk and make sure they’re capturing growth from different areas of the market.

Since the size and market share of some of the largest U.S. companies have grown so much throughout the economic recovery, investors may want to consider diversifying beyond the S&P 500.

To manage the risk of being heavily invested in a select few companies, Calcagni says, investors should factor in companies with smaller to mid-size capitalizations. He points to Russell 1000 or Russell 3000 exchange-traded funds, which are index funds that follow the performance of the Russell indexes, which that include a mix of mid- and small-cap equities. Smaller companies tend to carry greater risk than large caps, but they can offer investors greater returns over time.

Another area of the market for investors to research is non-U.S. equities. While U.S. stocks have offered strong performance throughout the year, with the S&P 500 up more than 20% and U.S. equities outpacing non-U.S. equities for the past decade, experts say it's time to add exposure to international stocks.

Investing in non-U.S. stocks today not only adds to portfolio diversification, but there are also opportunities to buy in at a discount. Given that valuations are high in the U.S. markets, it makes sense to invest outside of the U.S.

Calcagni says non-U.S. equities are more attractively valued and have greater economic growth potential. "Valuations in these markets are priced at a discount from anywhere from 20% to 30% relative to their U.S. equity counterparts," he says."

MY COMMENT

NOTHING new is going to happen in 2022. It will be the SAME old tired topics that have been beat to death over the past two years. As usual.....there will be potential for UGLY BLACK SWANS to appear.........irrational government action, some high level death, some world crisis, etc, etc, etc. BUT.....the basics will be the same old.....same old. The new boss will be the same as the old boss.

As to HOW to invest.......NO....I have absolutely ZERO interest in investing outside the good old USA. I ALSO have absolutely ZERO interest in investing outside my usual BIG CAP WORLD.

When you get down to it by the end of 2022 I suspect that........the SAME OLD BIG CAP NAMES.......will have dominated American business. I also suspect.........to a massive probability......that investors will STILL be solidly investing in stocks and funds.......no matter.......what interest rates do. There is NOTHING that is going to give investors any sort of tempting return except for stocks and funds.