SO......now the....FINAL COUNTDOWN.....is down to 9 market days and counting. Here is how we did this week. DOW year to date +15.55% DOW for the week (-1.68%) SP500 year to date +23.02% SP500 for the week (-1.94%) NASDAQ 100 year to date +22.60% NASDAQ 100 for the week (-3.25%) NASDAQ year to date +17.70% NASDAQ for the week (-2.95%) RUSSELL year to date +10.08% RUSSELL for the week (-1.71%) The SP500 has now retaken the lead as we head into the final NINE market days of the year.
Well a little weekend real estate post. Prices remain STRONG in my little area of 4200 homes. There are 10 houses actively for sale. The last home to come on the market in my particular neighborhood sold in ONE DAY. With the rate hikes coming soon......with a bump up in the Ten Year Treasury....mortgage rates WILL rise. We could soon be seeing rates in the 4% range. STILL a very low rate by historical norms......but......if YOU are at the point in your life that you are looking to buy.......NOW may be the time to.....JUST DO IT. Higher mortgage rates are coming. What could it mean for homebuyers? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/higher-mortgage-rates-coming-could-112301150.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Federal Reserve's announcement this week that it will fight inflation by phasing out a bond-buying program and preparing for faster interest-rate hikes will have far-reaching consequences for home prices and affordability, experts say. The Fed expects to raise rates three times next year to make borrowing more expensive for individuals and businesses, aiming to cool demand and soaring prices. It also expects more hikes in the following two years, lifting rates from near zero to 2.1% by the end of 2024. “When the Fed increases its interest rates, banks do, too," says Nadia Evangelou, senior economist, and director of forecasting for the National Association of Realtors. "And when that happens, mortgage rates go up for borrowers." Evangelou expects mortgage rates to rise to 3.7% by the end of next year. Home prices have surged to new heights during the pandemic as remote work fueled record demand for bigger houses and buyers took advantage of historically low mortgage rates to finance their purchases. What drove down the costs of home loans? During the depths of last year's COVID-19-induced recession, the Fed cut short-term interest rates almost to zero and bought billions of dollars in Treasury- and mortgage-backed securities each month to support the flow of credit. The Fed's intervention pushed mortgages rates to record lows, with the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate loan slipping to 2.65% in December 2020. The central bank’s decision this week to plan for more rate hikes was not a surprise given runaway inflation and a booming job market, says Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Banker’s Association. “Going forward, MBA forecasts that mortgage rates will rise to 4% by the end of 2022 and may be more volatile as the Fed backs away from the market,” says Fratantoni. “Although this will lead to a drop in refinances, we expect that the strong economy will support an increase in home sales in 2022.” What does that mean for home prices in 2022? If inflation remains high and that translates to higher mortgage rates, it could slow the housing market and put “downward pressure” on home prices, says Leonard Kiefer, an economist for Freddie Mac. On the other hand, with high inflation, asset prices, including real estate, tend to rise. “So far, it’s been pretty clear that it actually puts upward pressure on house prices," Kiefer says. "So, the two sort of go against each other." Home price increases will slow down partly as a consequence of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR. Yun expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to increase to 3.5% by the end of next year as the Fed raises rates. But Yun notes the rate would be still lower than the pre-pandemic rate of 4%. Home price increases will slow down partly as a consequence of those hikes, he says. Higher mortgage rates would also erode affordability, with homeowners having to shell out more per month. In its most recent Economic and Housing Market Outlook, Freddie Mac expected the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to average 3.7% in 2022. Difference in monthly mortgage payments with a change in rates "A homebuyer with a $300,000 mortgage, purchasing that home today at 3.1% for with a 30-year fixed would be paying $1,281 a month," says Kiefer. "By next year, with a 3.7% rate, they would be looking at $1,381 payment per month." Now is a good time to refinance Despite low interest rates and the chance to cut their monthly payments by refinancing their loans, among homeowners with a mortgage they’ve had since before the pandemic, 74% have not refinanced, according to an October Bankrate survey." MY COMMENT This is a GOLDEN time to refinance an old loan with a higher rate. I also DOUBT that prices will fall in any of the HOT markets. There is just too much demand for too few homes. As with many purchases and assets.......long term holding is important. Buy a home that you will live in for at least 5-10 years or more. We have bought 9-10 homes over our lives. Most are now over $1MILLION in value. Most of them were not anywhere near that when we bought and sold. We bought our first home......on the wrong side of the tracks...... under a first time buyer HUD program for $16,000 in 1974. That house is now worth about $400,000. With both of us having grown up in the military.....we have trouble staying in one place for very long. The longest we have lived in one house was 12 years. In general I think most people will GAIN more from a home if they stay for a longer time in the home. The LONG TERM direction of real estate will be UP.......and in some HOT markets......very much UP. BUT....like any purchase you have to do your research and be rational......dont panic buy a home. REMEMBER......location, location, location.......schools, schools, schools.
To continue the above theme. The top housing markets in 2022 projected by Realtor.com https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-estate/here-are-the-top-housing-markets-for-2022 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Realtor.com has released its projections for where the hottest housing markets in the U.S. will be in 2022, listing the ten areas it sees as positioned for the most growth next year. The real estate site reported that the areas topping its list have strong local economies with vibrant culture and opportunities for recreation – and the combination of those factors are attracting new residents looking for remote work. 1. Salt Lake City, Utah Median home price: $564,062 Project home price increase: 8.5% Projected increase in home sales: 15.2% Combined sales and price growth: 23.7% 2. Boise City, Idaho Median home price: $503,959 Project home price increase: 7.9% Projected increase in home sales: 12.9% Combined sales and price growth: 20.8% 3. Spokane-Spokane Valley, Washington Median home price: $419,803 Project home price increase: 7.7% Projected increase in home sales: 12.8% Combined sales and price growth: 20.5% 4. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Indiana Median home price: $272,401 Project home price increase: 5.5% Projected increase in home sales: 14.8% Combined sales and price growth: 20.4% 5. Columbus, Ohio Median home price: $298,523 Project home price increase: 6.3% Projected increase in home sales: 13.7% Combined sales and price growth: 20% Rounding out the list at number six of the top ten housing markets was the Providence-Warwick, Rhode Island, market, while the Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, South Carolina, area ranked number seven. Washington state's Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue market ranked eighth, followed by Worcester, Massachusetts, at number nine on the list. Coming in at the tenth spot was the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater market in Florida." MY COMMENT I suspect that MOST of the REALLY HOT markets this year will continue to top the list even though those cities are not in the list above.
Thanks. I've been around a day or three. I'm a long termer as a rule of thumb. Typically hold 5 or less stocks. 3 primaries that are locked in as longterm holds and 1 maybe 2 shorter term stocks. I like the smaller amount of companies. On a smaller note I am a playtrader. Have a small separate account for that. Do fairly well, mostly for fun.
SO.......after all the big market drops lately and all the drama......I am now down by about 5% from my ALL TIME HIGH. Not to bad considering. AND.....not anywhere near being a correction......yet. The markets are LURCHING up and down day to day and week to week. I dont see much commitment to either direction. The markets are tired and exhausted just like people at the moment. I do NOT include myself in that description. I feel good and am out and about daily. I am POSITIVE about the long term future for investors.......as usual.
Just catching up the week, busy, busy,busy Congratulations to Duckleberry & Your Betrothed !!! May you follow your path together and May you build a life of Love together I am still together with my partner of 37 years and now, wife of 27 years Tom your age is showing, and shhh, don't tell them about all the fun we had in the 70's and 80's Wellcome Sundance !! Sorry to hear about the Hemi Cuda , saw one for sale $500,000.00 According to WXYZ's numbers, if you had $2M invested in the market you could take your profit and buy it !! with just about enough left over to pay uncle Sam My week was pretty much like everyone else's , 4 down days and one up day Unfortunately, I think it's going to persist till the 31st, with profit taking and everyone balancing out there gains and losses for the year before the dinner bell rings on the 30th. Personally, sent a little cash towards my account , just in case I see something dip nicely. Happy Holidays to all and Merry Christmas
+1 on this comment , home ownership is the number one vehicle for people to accumulate wealth. And in the continuing saga of "Seattle , as the city burns" most people downtown are fed up with the VERY leftist govt , and defund the police mentality, we have a new mayor coming in that is centralist, and we ALMOST our recalled the very leftist (socialist) council member, short by under 200 votes, that's how close it was.
One other note on home ownership , if at all possible , keep the old house and rent it out, Assuming : Over a 35 year period , new house every 7 years, you could have 4 additional rental houses upon retirement. But how to get the down payment's you ask ? REFINANCE THE LAST HOUSE, to attain the down payment on the next home. It is SIMPLE, however NOT EASY !!! Real Estate also has the advantage of, upon attaining Social Security status, will not effect your SS income.
My hotrod days are over. Happy with my 20 year old beater. As mentioned this year is almost over. Been a good one, some nice gains. VOO,AAPL,TSLA for the win.
I hear you Sundance, I drive an 18 year old, (2003 Dodge Ram Cummins) , whoops soon to be 19 years old, that reminds me, it's about time to go read the odometers for the vehicles. Got some good picks there !!
Does your audio book cover how to get rich quickly? I have $375.31 that I need to turn into $5k by the end of the month. I'm newly retired and trading Bitcoin hasn't been as lucrative as I had hoped.
Well it's going to get pretty busy the next couple of weeks , and since I have a little time tonight ....... I'd like to thank WXYZ , Emmett, TomB, Tiresmoke, Gtrudeau88, Duckleberry, Zukodany, and all the other's that have contributed to this forum. This forum helped me keep my sanity during Covid, and I really appreciate the vetting of articles by WXYZ, and others. Emmett, Thank You for covering the market when W's off , doing whatever it is he does, something to do with a banjo I think, hehe It has been a year you possibly only get once , maybe twice in a lifetime, well, unless your as old as W .............. the S&P500 UP 26.02% YTD .........WOW And thanks to being "Fully Invested" I had a great year . As of today I am still UP on the S&P in most of my accounts , not all , some are more conservatively structured. And I had a couple of bad calls on some speculative stocks. But my main accounts have had a bountiful year. I am down from my ATH on Nov 16th and It would be nice to finish UP 30% on the year, but hey there is always next year. Actually I guess we have 9 more days hmmmmm One little thought for those beginning this journey of INVESTING, remember where you came from, and always give more
Thanks , I needed that before bed TomB I got it ...... how about 5X shorts for the rest of the month let me know if it works
WELL.......good to see oldmanram back today. We have a new.....short week....starting tomorrow and at the end of it.......it will be Christmas. So I will be the first to say.....MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone on here.
And speaking of the markets......I suspect we "might" be in for a down week this week since it is NOW abundantly clear that BUILD BACK BETTER and all the MONEY involved in it will NOT happen......unless something happens. I am sure the markets were looking forward to ALL those TRILLIONS of dollars to entering the economy over the next year. The powers that drive the short term markets are NOT going to like that money disappearing. In spite of the short term view......it will be a good thing for all that money to not be unleashed. Over the medium term it will help with the inflation issue. SO....perhaps the markets will not care.....or....will be obsessed with other irrelevant issues instead. We continue the.....FINAL COUNTDOWN........to year end with DAY NINE checked off tomorrow. Perhaps with it being a holiday week......the lack of volume......and people being distracted by last minute shopping and holiday preparation......will work in favor of the positive side of the markets for once and we will make some money. EITHER WAY...........BRING IT ON.
I actually have some FUNDAMENTAL investor "stuff" happening tomorrow. NIKE is going to report earnings.
What a great and inclusive forum! I am thankful for everyone's contributions and will continue to linger through the rest of the year. I am starting to feel a little greedy in the fact that my pickup truck is only going to be 10 years old this January! I told myself when I got it I would get myself a new truck every 10 years, but with the current prices and availability as well as the whole salt eating away at your depreciating asset I would like to get another 4-5 years out of it. I think I'm right around 138k miles and would like to hit the 200k. I don't do nearly as much driving as I used to and it's been excellent as far as reliability and maintenance are concerned. Like most of the group the last month has given back some of those HUGE 2021 gains so whenever I feel discouraged I zoom out to the YTD graph and feel better. I am still hoping for a little end of the year rally like everyone else! I remember in 2018 I had a bleed down up until the last day or two. In the 12 years I have had my account I have only added money to it and NEVER withdrew. Well that is going to change because I want to pull some money out to have 20% down and closing cost for whatever house we decide to buy in 2022. I am hoping that next year will be better than this and last but it seems like COVID want's to become a part of our lives for good!
We start DAY NINE or the remaining market days of 2021....as expected.....DOWN. Even though my opinion as a little retail investor does not count.....I am more than willing to take this HIT in return for: 1. The KILLING of the Build Back Better bill. It is NOT the time to be significantly changing the tax code, screwing with the Capital Gains taxes and the tax brackets. The last thing we need in the current FRAGILE economy is the changes and spending in that bill on top of everything else going on. 2. The spreading of antibodies world wide by the Omicron variation. From everything I continue to see the symptoms of this variation continue to be EXTREMELY MILD. I am willing to take all the fear mongering and panic. This variation spreads very quickly and we are seeing that the vaccines are NOT really vaccines. I am willing......as an OLD person......to take the personal risk and the short term financial losses to quickly spread Covid antibodies around the world and head toward herd immunity.
The Baby Boomers......ARE......retiring. Our generation spans the years from about 1946 to 1964. We used to be the LARGEST generation till the MILLENIALS took us out. Using age 65 as a general average retirement age......we have now seen about half the Baby Boom Generation.....those born from 1946 to 1956.......reach retirement. Over the next 9 years we will see the remainder of the Baby Boom hit retirement. For all practical purposes.....the world of work will be turned over to the younger generations for good at that point. Sure....there will be some that linger in the work world......but not many. In some businesses.....like tech....this change over has already SUBSTANTIALLY occurred. The data that shows Boomers are to blame for the labor shortage https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/18/business/labor-shortage-boomers-millennials-nightcap/index.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "One of the more insidious myths making the rounds this year was that young people didn't want to work because they were getting by just fine on government aid. People had too much money, went the narrative from a handful of politicians and pundits. Only trouble is, the numbers don't back it up. Here's the thing: Early retirement — whether forced by the pandemic or made possible otherwise — is having a huge impact on the labor market. And data show that retiring boomers, far more than "lazy" millennials, are the biggest force behind the labor shortage. People have left the workforce for myriad reasons in the past two years. But among those who have left and are least likely to return, the vast majority are older Americans who accelerated their retirement. Last month, there were 3.6 million more Americans who had left the labor force and said they didn't want a job compared with November 2019. A whopping 90% of them were over 55. There are few reasons why this is the case. The strong stock market and soaring home prices have given higher-income people, especially Boomers, more options, says ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson. The nature of the pandemic means the risks of going to work are higher for older people. Employers aren't doing enough to lure people out of retirement. They're creating jobs, just not the ones people want. Key quote: "I can want a 65-inch TV for $50, but it doesn't mean there's a TV shortage, it means I'm not willing to pay enough to get somebody to sell me a TV," says Aaron Sojourner, a labor economist and professor at the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management. Even the White House has recognized how the retirement issue is distorting our read of the labor economy. Jared Bernstein, a member of President Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisers, said that once "non-prime age" workers — those over 55 — are excluded from the metrics, a much clearer picture of how the labor recovery is doing emerges because it strips out the retirement narrative. There are signs emerging that the labor shortage is easing. First, retired people are starting to come back to work. The "unretirement" rate fell to just over 2% early in the pandemic, but in recent months has ticked up to around 2.6%, according to Nick Bunker, an economist at Indeed. That's still off from the pre-pandemic rate of around 3%. Bringing people out of retirement might sound cruel, but it's not always the case — some people retired not because they wanted to stop working but because it was too risky to work in a pandemic, or they couldn't find a job in which the benefits outweighed the risks. Another glimmer of hope for hiring managers: FedEx, which said the labor shortage cost it $470 million in its most recent quarter, says the outlook for staffing is improving. FedEx said it is getting a good response from its current hiring efforts, given its current pay package and other offerings, such as an app that provides employee-friendly, flexible schedule options. In the last week alone, it got 111,000 applications, the highest in its history, and up from just 52,000 during a week in May of this year. The company also is optimistic about keeping many of its seasonal hires on staff once the holiday shipping season is over," MY COMMENT The WHEEL TURNS. All I can say is......ok.....you younger people.......you got it. You have about NINE YEARS to complete this change over.
