The Long Term Investor

For the TESLA shareholders on here.

Tesla's Musk has 'the golden touch': Analyst Dan Ives

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-has-the-golden-touch-analyst-dan-ives-203845627.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Tesla's (TSLA) record deliveries highlight a "trophy-case quarter," says Wedbush managing director and analyst Dan Ives.

"This was a jaw-dropper quarter," Ives told Yahoo Finance Live. "This just shows massive momentum in terms of the green title wave going into 2022."

The EV giant delivered 308,600 electric cars in the fourth quarter of last year, well above Wall Street expectations. Deliveries for the full year totaled 936,172, an 87% y/y increase.

"Musk has had the golden touch when you look at how Tesla has been able to navigate the chip shortage," said Ives. Last year engineers were able to rewrite software for chips amid an industry-wide shortage.

The fourth quarter delivery results showcase Tesla's scalability within the electric vehicle (EV) landscape.

"In EV-land, it's Tesla's world, and everyone else is paying rent at this point," said Ives. "It all comes down to scale, and in this quarter, Tesla definitely flexed their muscle."

"I think we're only third inning of the whole Tesla growth story playing out," said Ives. He sees massive tailwinds for the company as the China market continues to grow, and new factories near Berlin and Austin come online.

Ives predicts Tesla will hit a $2 trillion market capitalization in about 18 months. The company hit $1 trillion in valuation for the first time on October 25 of last year.

Tesla shares were trading more than 12% higher during the session on Monday afternoon.'

MY COMMENT

I heard someone this morning on the business radio say that Tesla was going to be producing cars and trucks from the Austin plant soon. I dont see it. I was out at the plant on Sunday and does not look like it is anywhere near going into production. The majority of the windows and doors in the building are not in yet. Parking lots and roads are still not in and many doors are not in yet. From what I could see it has a ways to go to completion. I am guessing some time this summer. I am sure the Berlin plant is much closer to production than Austin.

BUT.....we should see BOTH of these plants start producing this year. It is likely to be an EPIC year for Tesla production numbers. SCALE is going to be off the charts by year end, 2022.

As to MUSK......he is a golden corporate leader. He is not caught up in the woke madness or the celebrity CEO BS. He is totally focused on his companies.....which are his toys. He is a total breath of fresh air in the corporate world of today.

Some day.......hopefully a long time from now......he will step down from the company that he is building. At that point it is likely that the BEAN-COUNTERS and B.S. executive types will take over the company. That will be the time that I totally bail on the stock. I hope that day is a long way off.

Will I invest in SPACE-X when it goes public......YOU BET.....although I will have to see the numbers and potential income sources. At this moment it looks like that company will be the GUTS of the entire USA space program. That is a great thing......private business.......WILL drive the move into space far beyond anything that the government could ever do.

 

Good to see you posting some Lori Myers. This thread needs various views....especially content from newer and young investors.

 

Here is the economic news start to the new year....that no one will care about.

U.S. manufacturing activity moderates in December; supply constraints ebbing-ISM

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-manufacturing-activity-moderates-december-150356422.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing slowed in December amid some cooling in demand for goods, but supply constraints are starting to ease and a measure of prices paid for inputs by factories fell by the most since early 2020 when the pandemic disrupted economic activity.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its index of national factory activity fell to a reading of 58.7 last month. That was the lowest reading since last January and followed 61.1 in November.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index falling to 60.1.

The ISM survey's measure of supplier deliveries declined to a reading of 64.9 from 72.2 in November. A reading above 50% indicates slower deliveries to factories.

Raw materials have been in short supply as global economies rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic. Shortages have also been exacerbated by the shift in demand to goods from service early in the pandemic. Millions of workers needed to produce and move raw materials remain sidelined.

The tentative signs of improvement in supply chains suggest inflation at the factory gate could soon begin to subside.

The survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers tumbled to 68.2 last month, the lowest level since November 2020, from 82.4 in November. The drop was the biggest since March 2020, when mandatory closures of nonessential businesses were enforced to slow the first wave of coronavirus infections.

This supports the Federal Reserve's long-held view that the current period of high inflation was transitory. Inflation is well above the U.S. central bank's flexible 2% target.

The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index fell to a still-high reading of 60.4 from 61.5 in November. With customer inventories still depressed, the slowdown in new order growth is likely to be temporary or limited.

Factories hired more workers. A measure of manufacturing employment rose to an eight-month high. This, together with very low first-time applications for unemployment benefits, support views that job growth accelerated in December.

According to a preliminary Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 400,000 jobs in December after rising 210,000 in November. The Labor Department is scheduled to publish December's employment report on Friday."

MY COMMENT

This is more good news for the most part. Employment is slowly recovering but still has a long way to go. Inflation is going to decrease as supply chain issues are resolved.....but still has a long way to go.

 

Here is the "other" economic news of the day.......no one will care about this one either.

Job openings reach 10.6 million in November as tight labor market persists

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jolts-job-openings-labor-department-november-2021-150154251.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Demand for workers in the U.S. remained historically elevated in November, with job openings holding near a record high amid the ongoing pandemic.

Vacancies totaled 10.562 million in November, according to the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) released Tuesday.This comes is slightly lower than the 11.091 million in October, based on the government's revised print for the month. Consensus economists were looking for job openings to rise to 11.079 million in November, according to Bloomberg data.

By industry, job openings declined most notably in accommodation and food services, with vacancies falling by 261,000 but remaining at a still-elevated 1.3 million in total. Construction and non-durable goods manufacturing employers also saw notable drops in job openings at 110,000 and 66,000, respectively.

Beneath the headline number, the quits rate came in at 3.0%, matching the record-high level last seen in September and suggesting an elevated number of individuals were voluntarily leaving their jobs. About 1.37 million people were laid off or fired in November, compared to 2.12 million people in the same month in 2020.

Tuesday's report extends a streak of elevated readings on job openings. Vacancies rose throughout early 2021 and reached a record high of 11.098 million in July, and have retreated only modestly since then.

And while the JOLTS report for November does not yet capture any meaningful impact from the Omicron variant discovered around Thanksgiving, some economists suggested labor shortages may be exacerbated at least in the near-term due to the latest surge.

"Companies have shifted their demand for workers at a pace that is normally only seen during economic booms," Chris Rupkey, chief economist for FWDBONDS, wrote in an email Tuesday. "The economy is booming today but for how long is the question with the spread of the latest COVID variant that is closing many schools and slowing commerce and buyer traffic at many shops and malls."

The JOLTS data also adds to a slew of other reports pointing to the persistent tightness in the U.S. labor market. The last monthly jobs report from the Labor Department showed a disappointing 210,000 non-farm payrolls came back in the penultimate month of last year. The labor force participation rate remained depressed compared to pre-pandemic levels, and the civilian labor force was still down by about 2.4 million participants versus levels from February 2020. And according to the latest NFIB Small Business Optimism report, nearly half of surveyed owners said they had job openings that could not be filled in November. The December jobs report is slated to be released on Friday.

But while labor shortages have continued to strain employers seeking to fill positions, leverage among workers has increased. Average hourly earnings last rose at a 4.8% year-over-year clip in November, though this rise was dwarfed by the 6.8% jump in U.S. consumer prices during the same month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey last month showed a labor differential — or percentage of those saying jobs were "plentiful" less those saying jobs were "hard to get" — that was still elevated on a historical basis, suggesting workers were still finding it relatively easy to find jobs."

MY COMMENT

This labor disruption is a real danger to the economy. This is a direct result of......past and continuing.....government policy causing distortions to the labor and employment markets. the impact on the small business community is devastating. The impact of free money and other programs is still in full force. For example in my little area there is STILL a moratorium on evictions.

NONE of this stuff will get back to more normal status until we get the health bureaucrats out of the picture on all levels of government. As an investor........this WILL string out the recovery......which on some levels is a good thing.

 

No need for me to even think about looking at my account today. With my holdings I know that I am DOWN.

I am hearing the commentary from the business TV people today about how the rise in the ten year rate to 1.66% is impacting the BIG CAP tech leaders. This stuff drives me crazy. We go from historic......100 year....low rates to perhaps historic.......95 year......low rates for a few days and SUPPOSEDLY the big cap tech giants are going to be impacted. BALONEY. There is absolutely no rational reason that this little daily fluctuation in the ten year rate would impact those companies in the slightest.

If people are reacting to this little.....one day.....rate rise and selling BIG TECH......it is insanity. I dont believe in the slightest that ANY retail investor woke up today and said......"oh my God.....the ten year rate is up to 1.66%.....I better sell my Microsoft and Apple stock". This is ALL simply a combination of PROGRAM AI trading.......and/or......manipulation by the traders.......and/or......blatantly STUPID herd behavior by the so called "professionals".

We are quickly approaching earnings reporting time in a few weeks. Those figures are LOCKED IN. That is where the total focus of any investor should be. Earnings, earnings, earnings......that is the name of the game as it ALWAYS IS. This is what will drive the near term........6-12 month.....future course of the markets and ESPECIALLY the BIG CAP TECH TITANS.

As usual it is the so called professionals.........in other words, SHORT TERM TRADERS......that drive the market story line that you hear repeated over and over. BUT.....the story line is NOT reality. The REALITY is the behavior of the silent majority of retail investors that are out there and are the GUTS of the economy and the markets.

 

I like this little article......a good commentary on the IPO market as well as the BIG CAP market.

For the Big Batch of IPOs, 2021 Was Boom and Bust
The significance of IPOs’ big year isn’t what headlines make it out to be.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...-the-big-batch-of-ipos-2021-was-boom-and-bust

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times … for initial public offerings (IPOs) in 2021, that is. In terms of the number of offerings and dollars raised, IPOs had a banner year, with US issuance (including special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs) topping $300 billion year to date—almost double 2020’s previous record, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Yet according to the Journal’s analysis, banner deals haven’t brought banner returns: Among the 384 companies going public the traditional way this year, 255 are now trading below their offer price.[ii] An index tracking SPACs, meanwhile, is down -15.3% year to date and -33.1% from its mid-February peak.[iii] In a refreshing turn, we aren’t seeing many folks call this a repeat of 2000’s dot-com crash. But there is a school of thought arguing rising interest rates are the main culprit, allegedly making it less attractive to pay a premium for growth stocks’ future earnings. We think this is a stretch—one of many takeaways from IPOs’ 2021 boom and bust.

We weighed in on the lack of relationship between Tech stocks and interest rates a couple of months ago, and the same logic applies to interest rates and growth stocks in general—a point we won’t rehash here. More interesting, in our view, is how IPOs square with growth stocks’ overall returns, which are pretty darned good. Growth is beating value by a smidge year to date—and by a mile since mid-May, when value’s brief countertrend rally (tied to vaccine cheer) fizzled out. It sure looks to us like investors are happy to pay a premium for future earnings regardless of interest rates’ wiggles.

Yet when you break growth stocks into small and large, a stark divide appears. Small-cap growth, the category many fresh non-SPAC IPOs fall into, soared during the first phase of the post-lockdown rally that began in March 2020, rising 101.7% from 3/23/2020 through that year’s end while large-cap growth delivered “only” 79.4%.[iv] Both outperformed global stocks’ 70.0% return in that span, but smaller names were the clear winners—likely helping fuel enthusiasm for IPOs this year, just in time for that trend to reverse.[v]

In 2021, small-cap growth is up just 9.7% year to date, badly trailing global stocks’ 22.1%, while large-cap growth is outperforming at 23.9%.[vi]

We see a simple reason for this: Stocks are behaving as they normally do late in a cycle, when investors increasingly seek the highest-quality companies—a fact the high rate of companies going public this year supports. Large- and small-cap growth companies share a tendency to derive earnings from long-term technological trends, and their fortunes typically don’t depend on the economic cycle’s ups and downs. But large growth companies also tend to have an abundance of strong qualitative attributes, like a big global presence, strong brand names, diverse revenue sources, cash-rich balance sheets and—crucially—fatter gross profit margins. Those have come particularly in handy lately as companies weathered higher costs and supply chain pressures. The largest growth companies have much more of a buffer to handle this. They also have the ability to self-finance investment and future growth, which becomes important as the yield curve flattens—which is likely next year, courtesy of a Fed rate hike or two. New IPOs may grow into high-quality large companies one day, but for now, many are riding more on hope than strong cash flows, likely making them less attractive.

Another factor bringing IPOs’ disappointing returns is the alternate interpretation of their acronym: It’s Probably Overpriced. When a company goes public, the goals are twofold: To raise money and to give early investors the chance to cash out. Both goals incentivize the investment bank coordinating the IPO to set the offer price as high as possible. If newly public companies deliver gangbusters returns in the first few months after their debut, it means the offer price was too low, leaving money on the table. This is a big reason why average IPO returns in the first few months and even years are normally weak, according to data from University of Florida Professor Jay Ritter, aka the IPO Data Maestro.[vii] The majority of 2021 IPOs’ being underwater seems entirely consistent with this history, in our view.

In our view, IPO activity is most telling for what it shows about sentiment and stock supply. To the former, this year’s bust is another indication that early-2021’s optimism has largely worn off. As the year dawned, IPO and SPAC cheer rang everywhere, putting the world on watch for froth that could eventually permeate the entire market, bringing the euphoria that often accompanies bull markets’ ends. Now, it looks like those once-frothy corners have self-deflated without infecting the broad market, a sign stocks overall likely have plenty of wall of worry to climb. On the supply front, a parallel boom in stock buybacks has helped keep total stock supply from running away. Net issuance is still high year to date, but it hasn’t yet made up the steep deficit since 2009—in other words, we still have a net stock supply decrease since the 2009 – 2020 bull market began. That suggests to us that even with the recent increase, we don’t yet have the supply glut that would signal an approaching market peak."

MY COMMENT

Much of the content of this little article is the perfect companion piece for my post above. Here is the SIMPLE reason that the oft repeated argument that rising rates should impact the BIG CAP GIANTS is........BALONEY:

"...large growth companies........have an abundance of strong qualitative attributes, like a big global presence, strong brand names, diverse revenue sources, cash-rich balance sheets and—crucially—fatter gross profit margins. Those have come particularly in handy lately as companies weathered higher costs and supply chain pressures. The largest growth companies have much more of a buffer to handle this. They also have the ability to self-finance investment and future growth, which becomes important as the yield curve flattens—which is likely next year, courtesy of a Fed rate hike or two."

Follow the reasoning of those that fear monger interest rates and your results will be in the toilet. ALL of that sort of stuff is simply short term chaff. Remember the last time the fear mongering about the ten year rate PEAKED about 6-9 months ago? Ignore the micro trading chaff. Ignore the day to day chaff. Simply focus on the LONG TERM and all that irrelevant stuff is smoothed out. It is not visible in the slightest on a longer term chart of market action.

 

HERE is one of the most SIMPLE yet important articles I am seeing today.

8 Steps to a Higher Net Worth in 2022
To become a high net worth individual, start establishing good financial habits this year.

https://money.usnews.com/money/pers...udgeting/articles/steps-to-a-higher-net-worth

"If you’re someone who makes New Year’s resolutions, creating a higher net worth is probably on your list.

Establishing a plan to achieve this goal is a first step, but know that results will not come quickly. As Scott Alan Turner, a certified financial planner in Dallas, says, "Wealth is built over time – not overnight.”

“When I’m teaching people about wealth building, one of the best things they can do is be patient," he says. "Compound interest works if you let it. The time it takes $500 to double to $1,000 is the exact same amount of time it takes $50,000 to double to $100,000, or $500,000 to $1 million.”

With that said, to accumulate more wealth in 2022, try these suggestions from financial advisors serving high net worth clients.

• Update your budget.
• Boost your savings.
• Pay off debt.
• Increase retirement contributions.
• Invest in yourself.
• Lower your tax bill.
• Improve your career.
• Audit your insurance.

Update Your Budget

If you already have a budget – and hopefully you do – analyze and update it. After all, no budget can stay the same for long. You get a pet, add a streaming service or buy a car, and suddenly your budget changes.

Brian Stivers, an investment advisor and founder of Stivers Financial Services in Knoxville, Tennessee, suggests you start the year by evaluating your monthly budget in buckets of “important lifestyle expenses” and “nonessential expenses,” the latter of which might includes a gym membership or dining out purchases.

“Then, make an informed decision on the amount of discretionary income you have for financial goals,” Stivers says. Once you have a number in mind that could go toward retirement or a savings account, start putting that money aside every month.

If your budget is already in good shape, consider going a step further and creating a financial plan.

Boost Your Savings

If you don’t have one, you absolutely need a savings account. Your savings account, which could also be your emergency fund, needs to grow because if you’re borrowing money from yourself, you’ll take on less debt, which increases your net worth. Without a savings account to put money aside and help organize your finances, it's hard to imagine becoming wealthy.

A savings account is at the heart of any strong financial portfolio. It allows you to manage your cash flow and pay for any unexpected expenses, such as a major car repair, without having to take out a personal loan. If you run into an investment opportunity, a robust savings account may allow you to invest. As long as you’re paying your bills, there’s no downside to fattening up a savings account and increasing your net worth.

Pay Off Debt

Mark Charnet, founder and CEO of American Prosperity Group, in Pompton Plains, New Jersey, says paying off debt is a crucial early step to building wealth. High net worth individuals tend not to pay a fortune in interest.

Your net worth is the sum liabilities minus assets. So as your debt decreases, and your income and assets increase, your net worth goes up.

“First rule of increasing your net worth is debt elimination and should accompany every financial plan,” Charnet says. He adds that you may not be able to wipe out all of your debt quickly, but when repaying credit card debt, you’ll always want to pay more than the required minimum.

However, when it comes to your mortgage, Charnet says there's currently no need to shell out more than your payment. “Some financial advisors suggest a person would be best to accelerate their home mortgage payments,” Charnet says. “However, with mortgage rates at historic lows, in this financial advisor’s opinion, that is the last thing to do.”

Increase Retirement Contributions

Next, increase funding to your retirement plan. Many experts suggest putting 10% to 15% of your annual income toward retirement. If you’re nowhere near that, aim for saving 1% or 2% more. Small additional contributions, if you’re making them every paycheck, will add up over the years.

In case you’re wondering if you should pay off all your debt and then set up a retirement plan, many financial advisors suggest doing both at one time – assuming it’s going to take years to pay off everything you owe.

“Take a balanced approach to investing the money found in your budget and reducing your debt,” Stivers advises. “If you have $500 a month for financial planning and have credit card debt, take half to put towards the debt and half towards savings and investments.”

You’ll increase your net worth faster, Stivers says, if you try a balanced approach as opposed to only saving or only paying off debt.

Invest in Yourself

While it's always smart to invest in your future by putting money toward retirement or your kids' future, investing in yourself now could increase your net worth.

For example, if you go to graduate school, in theory, you could get a better job. Of course, it depends what type of degree you get. In 2021, the National Association of Colleges and Employers analyzed which master's degrees tend to lead to the highest earnings. A master's in biology will earn graduates approximately 87% more than without it. A master's in accounting will, on average, lead to a 4% increase in salary. You'll also want to weigh your potential earnings against graduate school debt.

If you hire a career or financial coach, you might get insight that leads you to a promotion. Investing in yourself won't always help you become rich, but if you think there are roadblocks keeping you from living your best life, fixing those problems may free you up to increase your income and accumulate wealth.

Lower Your Tax Bill

Everyone should pay their fair share, of course, but taking advantage of tax breaks will help your net worth grow.

Tax credits, such as the child and dependent care tax credit and the lifetime learning credit, directly offset your taxes owed. Meanwhile, a tax deduction reduces your taxable income.

If you can lower your tax rate, you could potentially save thousands of dollars. Consider your tax bracket. For example, if you're single and earn $86,376 a year, your tax rate is 24%. By following the advice of a financial advisor and bringing down your taxable income by just a dollar, say by making qualified charitable contributions, your tax rate would drop to the next bracket – 22%.

Again, no one is suggesting you don't pay your fair share of taxes, but if you can increase your net worth by lowering your tax bill in ways the government allows you to, such as taking advantage of tax deductions or tax credits, why not?

Improve Your Career

Advance your career by asking for a raise, working toward a promotion, applying for a new job or starting your own business.

According to the career website Zippia, for example, the average annual salary for any American employee is $47,520, while for a business owner, that number jumps to $95,559. Sure, things may not work out the way you want. Plenty of businesses don’t succeed. But if yours does, and you own a successful business, you could find your net worth go up considerably.

Audit Your Insurance

Insurance can be extremely costly, as self-employed people with health insurance can tell you – or parents who insure teenage drivers.

Maybe you have excellent insurance. But if you are often cringing every time you pay your monthly health insurance, life insurance or car insurance premiums, or you wonder if you’re getting a good deal on your homeowners or renters insurance, do yourself a favor and comparison shop.

For instance, last year, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released data showing that returning consumers could save, on average, 40% of their monthly premiums because of enhanced tax credits that were passed in the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. If you can lower any of your insurance premiums without cutting coverage significantly, you could put the savings into your retirement or other investments to increase your net worth."

MY COMMENT

So simple yet so difficult to do in real life. EVERY one of the ideas above results in ONE THING........more money for YOU. Now...that is a good thing....but......you than have to take the next step......actively putting that money to work as an investment. For the average person there is ONLY one option for investing......stocks, funds, and ETF's. A secondary approach is REAL ESTATE. BUT.....for most people the money being saved by doing the above will end up in stocks or funds.

The ONLY way you are going to multiply your net worth is through the power of long term COMPOUNDING. The single most important investing concept that I have used throughout my life is the RULE of 72's. It gives a person a time machine view of the FUTURE. It shows what the pay off for your hard work of saving and investing will be. EVERY dollar you can save and invest WILL compound over the LONG TERM. EVERY dollar you save and ivnest WILL grow as the rule of 72's tells you it will.

Saving is the first step in the process. The second step is investing in a rational and realistic way to compound those savings. START NOW........after all it is a new year and a time for a new beginning.

 

The last two days are a MINI-REPEAT of what we saw in the markets over many months last year. Looks like we are in for the SAME erratic, volatile day to day, week to week, swings in the market in 2022. Another year of NO clear direction or confidence in the markets.....at least on the part of the traders that drive and control much of the day to day markets.

I was DOWN in the red today. I never looked all day since it was obvious where we were headed today. The SP500 beat me by 0.80% on the day. So a down day all around for me.

The only thing that held some of the losses down for me today were my non tech stocks.....Honeywell, Home Depot, and Nike which were in the green.

 

Looks like the DOW is the....leader of the pack......at least for a couple of days.

Stock market news live updates: Dow notches another record close as S&P 500, Nasdaq lose steam

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-4-2022-233605600.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average set another closing record on Tuesday at 36,799.65 points after upbeat economic data powered the index forward as investors bet on a strong recovery. Tech stocks faltered to drag the Nasdaq down 1.4% in its biggest decline since December, and the S&P 500 was mostly unchanged.

Investors mulled a trove of new prints out of Washington, including a fresh read on the ISM Manufacturing Index and the Labor Department's latest job openings.

Releases from ISM showed manufacturing slowed in December on a cool down in demand for goods, but that supply chain constraints are starting to ease. On the employment side, data showed demand for workers was historically high again in November, with a record 4.5 million Americans quitting their jobs as labor shortages continue to strain employers, though the impact of the latest virus wave has yet to show.

"Looking ahead, the Omicron variant wave will likely lead to some short-term weakness in the labor market," Sam Bullard, senior economist for Wells Fargo, wrote in a note published earlier this week. "However, we believe this will be temporary and that the pace of hiring should pick back up by the spring."

Despite a mixed day, markets have made headway overall, picking up right where they left off in a banner 2021 to trade near all time highs into the new year. The pace of that momentum, however, remains at the helm of the Federal Reserve as it gears up for potential rate hikes as soon as this quarter to deal with rising inflation.

Market veteran Jim Bianco of his eponymous firm Bianco Research told Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi in a sit-down interview that the central bank’s measures pose the biggest threat to the red-hot rally in equities.

"I think that is the number one risk right now in 2022," he said, adding that high inflation is likely to be persistent and can push the Fed hard to do something. “In the process of doing something about it, it puts the rally of the stock market at risk."

Managing Partner Ted Oakley told Yahoo Finance Live that the Federal Reserve “turned political on us.”

“As soon as the inflation numbers had gone up, I think the administration had pressed them not to worry as much about the market,” he said.

Automakers led headlines on Tuesday, with shares of Ford Motor Company (F) surging more than 11% in afternoon trading at its highest level in two decades to close at $24.31 after the company said it would nearly double annual production capacity for its popular F-150 Lightning electric pickup to 150,000 vehicles.

The move comes as Ford's competition with rival General Motors (GM) in the electric vehicle race heats up, with GM set to unveil its own electric truck on Wednesday. GM closed up at a record high of 7.47% to $65.74.

Meanwhile, General Motors was ousted by Japanese carmaker Toyota Motor Corp (T) as the leader in U.S. sales for the first time in nearly a century. Toyota sold 2.332 million vehicles in the United States in 2021, beating 2.218 million for General Motors, the companies reported on Tuesday. GM's U.S. sales slumped 13% for 2021, while Toyota was up 10%.

Shares of Toyota closed 6.92% higher on Tuesday at $199.19 a piece.

12:45 p.m. ET: ARKK's losses pour into new year

Ark Innovation’s (ARKK) top holdings plummeted in midday trading, positioning the popular fund for a rough start to the new year.

Among the most heavily-allocated picks in her portfolio posting declines during the session were Tesla (TSLA), down 3.29% to $1,160.25; Teladoc Health (TDOC), which shed 6.08% to $89.30, and Zoom Communications (ZM), tumbling 5.69% to 173.77.

ARKK was down 5.64 in the early afternoon, slumping lower from a challenging 2021 that saw declines for the exchange-traded fund of more than 20%.

Wood recently promised her strategy could deliver a 40% compound annual rate of return during the next five years — a projection she later tweaked to a lower, however still-lofty 30%-40% after criticism of her statement.


Ark Innovation's top holdings took a beating during intraday trading on Tuesday, positioning the popular ETF managed by Cathie Wood's Ark invest for a rough start to the new year.

11:20 a.m. ET: Apple turns red after reaching $3 trillion milestone

Shares of Apple (AAPL) dipped more than 1% during midday trading after the iPhone-maker rallied in Monday's session toward a $3 trillion market capitalization.

The decline contributed to losses in the Nasdaq as the index pared Monday's gains to edge 1.8% lower, shedding 280 points.

11:07 a.m. ET: Toyota dethrones GM as No. 1 automaker

Japanese carmaker Toyota Motor Corp (T) topped General Motors Co (GM) in U.S. sales last year, unseating the Detroit-based vehicle company as the country's leader in auto sales for the first time in nearly a century.

Toyota sold 2.332 million vehicles in the United States in 2021, beating 2.218 million for General Motors, the companies reported on Tuesday. GM's U.S. sales slumped 13% for 2021, while Toyota was up 10%. In 2020, GM's U.S. sales totaled 2.55 million, compared with Toyota's 2.11 million and Ford's 2.04 million.

Shares of GM were up more than 5% in morning trading to $64.25 a piece. Toyota was up nearly the same amount, trading 4.92% higher at $195.45."

MY COMMENT

LOTS of MINOR news and economic items today. A BLAH day in the markets......but....not really an indicator of anything in my view.

Poor ARK......the media LOVES to set up a hero and than knock them down. The coverage that Cathie Wood got months ago was WAY over the top. Now she is paying the price for that EXTREME coverage. It is not her fault....just a symptom of the modern financial media and how they love to live off DRAMA.

I am not really a fan of how she buys and sells in her stocks. It seems too random and off the wall.....news driven trading. It worked during the peak of the pandemic but I dont see the companies that she owns as having real staying power. I think she is SEVERELY OVERESTIMATING the future for many of the stocks that she owns.

As to the FED.....yes they are likely to be an issue. Not due to tapering and raising rates......but......due to their movement into the field of politics. The make up of the FED is very different at this moment than it was just a month ago. With an emphasis on politics in an election year....I have no confidence in the FED......not that I ever had much to begin with. I would put them at about 50/50 that they will push the economy into a recession this year with their tinkering.

 

Speaking of a recession this year here is one view on the topic.

Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach: The yield curve may be sending a recessionary signal

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond...-sending-a-recessionary-signal-160935243.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach has a lot on his mind as it pertains to markets when Yahoo Finance sits down with the DoubleLine founder at length inside his California estate on the first trading day of 2022.

China isn't a great market to be investing in, contends Gundlach. Stock valuations as measured by the DoubleLine favorite the CAPE ratio appear too rich, says Gundlach.

But it's Gundlach's warning on the path of the U.S. economy — in part caused by looming interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve — that perhaps warrants the most attention by investors large and small after a strong run-up in equity prices last year.

"We have the highest two-year yield of the past year. We have the highest three-year yield. We have basically a high on the five-year yield. And so what's happening is the yield curve is sending a bonafide recessionary signal. You have interest rates going up at the short end and going down at the long end," explains Gundlach ahead of his third annual 'Roundtable Prime' investing panel at DoubleLine's headquarters.

The basic mechanics of a flattening yield (which could then lead to an inverted curve) as a recession predictor goes a little something like this: markets start to worry the Fed will slowdown an overheated economy by increasing interest rates which in turn triggers an economic slowdown. That then leads to a period of renewed lower interest rates from the Fed as they attempt to stave off a recession.

To wit, a yield curve inversion has preceded every recession of the past 50 years.

Indeed this junction may be where markets are at present as the Fed seeks to turn into an inflation fighter inside of a global health pandemic by 1) winding down its quantitative easing (QE) campaign; and 2) signaling a path of higher interest rates in 2022 and beyond.

As Factset recently pointed out, the spread between the 10-year and two-year Treasury yield narrowed to 79 basis points at the end of 2021. In March of last year — or well before the Fed signaled it would move into a period of tighter policy — that spread tallied 160 basis points. Looked at another way, the yield curve is flattening ... starting the clock on a key recession indicator used by pros such as Gundlach.

Gundlach believes the bond market is suggesting an economic slowdown is in the cards this year. And as such, the yield curve is a must watch for investors right out of the gate.

Adds Gundlach, "I think the bond market is already showing enough of a recession indicator that by 2023 it's seems pretty likely. And I, like I said earlier, I don't think a lot of Fed officials, economists and investors appreciate the fact the economy keeps buckling at lower and lower interest rates. So I think the Fed only has to raise rates four times and you're going to start seeing really a plethora of recessionary signals. I think it's certainly a non-zero probability that you get a recession in the latter part of 2022. That's going to be dependent again on how aggressive the Fed is. One thing that we did notice in 2018 is the Fed stopped QE, they started quantitative tightening — letting the bonds roll off. And then they started raising interest rates and we got an instantaneous bear market."

MY COMMENT

I have no doubt that the FED is out of touch with economic reality. They always are. There is a good chance that they are going to be shocked as they start to raise rates.....to see how fragile the economy really is. With everything that is going on in the world and in our economy I would be very, very, slow to raise rates if it was up to me. I would TAPER......for sure.....but would be very wary of raising rates too much too fast.

ACTUALLY.....with the causes of the current inflation.....supply and labor issues and general disruption of the economy two years ago with a very slow recovery to normal......I dont believe rate increases will have any impact on inflation at all. However.....they are likely to kill the economy and/or the markets. The country and many people are in a very strange psychological place right now after the last two years.......I would go very slow. BUT......I dont have a vote.

 

Here is some tax information that most of us will be seeing in the mail shortly. Dont forget to claim either or both of these credits when you do your taxes for 2021.

IRS sending important letters to stimulus check, child tax credit recipients
IRS: Hold onto two letters before 2021 tax filing season

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/irs-important-letters-stimulus-check-child-tax-credit-recipients

"Americans who received the third round of stimulus checks or an advanced child tax credit payment should be on the lookout for two important letters from the Internal Revenue Service.

The IRS said that it began issuing the letters on child tax payments in December and will continue through the first part of the new year, while the letters on stimulus payments will be delivered by the end of January.

The agency urged anyone who receives the letters to hold onto them ahead of the 2021 tax filing season, which will likely begin later this month. The information in the letters is intended to help individuals avoid errors and delays in processing their returns this year.

Families that received monthly installments of the boosted child tax credit last year will receive a letter – called Letter 6419 – from the IRS informing them of the total amount of the advanced payment they received and the number of qualifying children used to calculate the payments.

Because at least half of the enhanced credit will be paid out as a lump sum when parents receive their 2021 tax return, recipients should keep the letter and use it to accurately reconcile the credit they already received when filing their taxes this year. The information is pertinent to determining how much more money families receive from the credit when they fill out Schedule 8812 and Form 1040.

People who received the monthly payments can also check the amount of their payments by using the CTC Update Portal.

If families opted out of the monthly payments, they can claim the full amount of the child tax credit on their 2021 federal tax return. This also applies to families who don't normally need to file a tax return.

Low- and middle-income parents are eligible to receive $3,000 for every child ages 6 to 17 and $3,600 for every child under age 6 under the expanded child tax credit. The payments are income-based and begin to phase out for individuals earning more than $75,000 and married couples earning more than $150,000. The tax credit is tapered by $50 for every $1,000 a family makes over the income thresholds.

If families earn too much to qualify for the sweetened tax credits, they can still receive the $2,000 credit for their children if their income level is below $200,000 for individuals and $400,000 for married couples.

There’s no limit on the number of children who can receive the credit per family.

The second letter – Letter 6475 – that the IRS is sending involves the third stimulus check worth $1,400 that the government delivered in March 2021. The check included a "plus-up" payment to people who were eligible for extra money based on changes in income or employment status from 2019 to 2020.

The latest letter will reflect how much that individual was paid and can help people determine whether they are entitled to, and should claim, the Recovery Rebate Credit on their tax returns when they file in 2022. It only applies to the third stimulus payment issued in March 2021, which were essentially advance payments on a credit that would be claimed on a 2021 tax return.

"Most eligible people already received the payments," the IRS said. "However, people who are missing stimulus payments should review the information to determine their eligibility and whether they need to claim a Recovery Rebate Credit for tax year 2020 or 2021.""

MY COMMENT

The IRS is so screwed up right now.

My 2020 return is STILL caught up in the 6.5MILLION return backlog. That is screwing me with the calculation of the extra Social Security Medicare premiums since Social Security is using my 2019 return since the IRS has not provided them with my 2020 return.....which they should be using. The income on my 2019 return is kicking me into MAXIMUM extra premiums for Medicare.....my 2020 return would now cause me to NOT have to pay any extra premium. The impact on my social Security this year......an extra $6000 taken out of my social Security for Medicare this year that SHOULD NOT be taken out.

It is going to be a multi year....perhaps decades.....BIG MESS at the IRS. We are about to start a new tax season and there are at the MINIMUM 6.5MILLION unprocessed returns from last year. Add in the fact that these are mostly paper returns and that the IRS is STILL working from home where they can not access these returns and it is going to be a COLOSSAL MESS for many years to come as the backlog piles up.

At least they are SO SCREWED UP.....it is unlikely that anyone will be audited for years.

 

Well said......rg7803. Makes me wonder where we are headed in the next couple of years. It seems like the world is in MAXIMUM CHAOS right now.......but.....I know it could get much worse. It continues to AMAZE me that people thought they could just shut down the economy in country after country and there would not be any significant long term consequences.

No one bothered to think about the social, cultural, mental, psychological, etc, etc, impact of taking that sort of UNPRECEDENTED action on business and society.

 

MOVE ON....nothing to see here. That is my view of the markets today. The DOW is the KING of the markets at the moment. I would not count on that for very long.

The NASDAQ and tech world are being punished.....for nothing. I continue to hear the talking heads mention the rising interest rates.....OMG......the ten year yield is up by 0.020%. Yes there "might" be some small impact on some of the young, unproven, tech companies. BUT......saying that a TINY rise in the ten year yield.....within the range we have been in for the past 18 months......should impact the TECH GIANTS.....is simply moronic.

Of course......this is simply a continuation of what we have been living with over the past 12 months or more now. At times like this you simply have to IGNORE what is being said. No one really has any specific reason for the weakness in the BIG CAP tech companies so they simply repeat the line that is circulating.

My guess is that there is actually no reason for the current short term market action......it is just one of those short term events that has no connection to any reality. There is no reason to even try to figure it out......since.....over the short term MUCH of what you see in the markets is simply RANDOM CHAOS.

BUT......people LOVE structure and reasons for everything.....so you see the daily "experts" come on and explain why every little event is happening. The reality is that most of the time no one has a clue why anything is happening.

What will ACTUALLY count is going to happen in a few weeks when earnings reporting starts. I anticipate that earnings for the BIG CAP monster stocks will come in very nicely. Does that mean they will automatically be up....no. As I often say good earnings.....equals......money in the bank.

At least it is entertaining to see everyone trying to explain every little market blip up or down. It is SILLY but I find it funny. I am smiling as I type this.......you have to LOVE human behavior.

 

I like this little article.....it shows the SILLINESS if someone was trying to follow data from a prior year.

Your 2021 Stock Market Scorecard
What to make of the year’s winners and losers?

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/your-2021-stock-market-scorecard

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Editors’ Note: MarketMinder is politically agnostic. We prefer no politician nor any political party and assess political developments for their potential economic and market impact only. Additionally, MarketMinder does not make individual security recommendations. The below merely represent a broader theme we wish to highlight."

"Ah, another year over, a new one just begun. We will publish our stock market expectations for 2022 in due time, but first things first: With the final results in, let us take a look back at the year that was. Which categories within the MSCI World Index did best and worst in 2021, and what lessons can investors learn?

Best Sector: Energy. Yes, headlines are preoccupied with the biggest Tech and Tech-like stocks, which also did quite well last year. But Energy outpaced the competition with its 40.1% return, well ahead of second-place Tech’s 29.8%.[ii] Energy stocks tend to move with oil prices, as oil producers’ earnings depend more on the price of crude than on production volumes. After getting hit hard in 2020’s lockdowns, oil prices bounced back sharply in 2021. Crude surpassed its pre-pandemic price in March and continued rising for much of the year. Autumn’s Europe-led natural gas crunch added more fuel to the fire, as it spurred demand for alternate energy sources, including oil. This all drove a smashing recovery for Energy companies’ earnings, which were abysmal in 2020. But don’t let this give you fear of missing out if you didn’t have a huge Energy weighting in your portfolio last year. Energy began the year as just 2.7% of MSCI World Index market capitalization, so anyone making great fortunes on the sector last year may not have been adequately diversified.[iii] Taking big sector risks might look nice when they pay off, but they can also be severe setbacks when things don’t go as you anticipated.

Worst Sector: Utilities. No shock here, as Utilities is more defensive—demand for these services doesn’t really fluctuate with economic ups and downs. Thus, Utilities’ time to shine usually arrives in bear markets, when investors gravitate to its inherent stability. Lagging in bull markets is normal. But it had extra headwinds late last year, due to the aforementioned energy price spike. High energy prices are a cost for power providers, which hits earnings—especially in markets where retail energy prices are regulated heavily.

Best Country: Austria. The country’s 41.5% return is even more astounding when you consider that continental Europe underperformed significantly.[iv] The region returned just 15.7%, behind the MSCI World Index’s 21.8%.[v] Additionally, Austria’s political backdrop wasn’t exactly great, with recurring uncertainty as two chancellors stepped down in quick succession, and the country returned one of the region’s strictest COVID lockdowns late in the year. But here is something Austria did have going for it: It is one of the MSCI World Index’s smallest markets. The MSCI Austria Index has just five constituents, making its return subject to company-specific skew. Case in point: Its biggest holding is a bank that takes up almost 40% of the index and rose over 50% on the year.[vi] Its second-largest holding is an Energy company that returned over 40%.[vii] Small countries often have outsized returns like this. We wouldn’t read into it … and we certainly wouldn’t chase it.

Worst Country: New Zealand. In addition to a -17.1% decline, the island nation notched the dubious milestone of negative returns in all six of the MSCI New Zealand’s constituents.[viii] While company-specific factors mattered here, too, we also think it is fair to say the country’s extremely strict COVID restrictions hurt, as they largely closed the island off from the rest of the world even as other nations reopened and strengthened economic links with each other. In our view, this is just more proof that it was lockdowns—not the virus itself—that hurt stocks in early 2020.

Best Style: Large-Cap Growth. This was a big shock to most pundits, who spent all year calling for value to lead as it usually does in a young bull market. But we think this young bull market has had an old soul from the start, as 2020’s bear market didn’t last long enough to reset the leadership cycle. Instead, stocks acted like it was a hugely oversized correction, with growth leading before and after the downturn. It remains ahead of value cumulatively despite some big countertrend rallies that favored value along the way. Yet within growth, 2021 featured a marked shift from small growth, which led in 2020, to large. See last week’s article for more, but we find this consistent with a maturing bull market, when investors usually favor quality, liquidity and big gross profit margins. In our view, larger, growth-oriented stocks will probably lead for the duration of this bull market, until a traditional long, grueling bear market resets the cycle for value to lead in a recovery.

Best Performing Stock: AMC Entertainment Holdings. What can we say? Some meme stocks had staying power. That worked out well for deep value investors who bought before the craze and held on. But no matter how right you might think their core investment thesis is, it is likely priced in now. Markets look forward, not backward—logic you can apply to all 1,546 stocks currently in the MSCI World Index.

MY COMMENT

NO.....I am not going to rush out and invest in Austria, New Zealand, energy stocks, utilities, or especially AMC. The main reason I put this little article up is the paragraph in the middle that deals with large cap growth. What is said in a few sentences there continues to be SO TRUE.....especially with what we are seeing over the past couple of days. I totally agree with this statement in this article:

"........2021 featured a marked shift from small growth, which led in 2020, to large...........we find this consistent with a maturing bull market, when investors usually favor quality, liquidity and big gross profit margins. In our view, larger, growth-oriented stocks will probably lead for the duration of this bull market, until a traditional long, grueling bear market resets the cycle for value to lead in a recovery."

This is the PRIMARY reason that I mentally LAUGH at all the excuses i see and hear for the couple of days of BIG CAP losses we are seeing now. People are STILL going to flock to these companies.........simply because they are the most successful businesses that you can own in the world. They ALL have a license to mint money. They are ALL simply the cream of the crop for investors. All the BIG CAP tech names are massive conglomerates. There is NO other investment that has the future potential as well as the SAFETY provided by the massive income streams and quality of these companies.

 

Keeping the above couple of posts in mind........here is what is going on today in the short term markets.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks fall, tech shares add to losses

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-5-2022-231453181.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday as technology shares extended declines from the prior trading day.

The S&P 500 drifted lower to pull back further from Tuesday's record intraday high. The Nasdaq also dropped and underperformed the other two major equity indexes. Apple (AAPL) shares steadied following a decline a day earlier earlier, which pulled the stock back after reaching a $3 trillion market capitalization for the first time ever at the start of the week.

Investors Wednesday morning also digested fresh upbeat economic data, as private payroll gains handily exceeded estimates for December. ADP said Wednesday that private sector employers added back 807,000 jobs during the final month of November, nearly doubling expectations as job growth picked up to help alleviate some labor shortages.

In the first few trading days of the new year, investors have piled into cyclical areas of the market, with shares of companies seen as the biggest beneficiaries of a firming economic recovery and rising interest rates outperforming. The energy, financials and industrials sectors outperformed in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average composed heavily of cyclical stocks rose by more than 200 points to set an all-time closing high.

Treasury yields steadied after moving sharply higher on Monday and Tuesday, which had added pressure to technology and growth stocks valued heavily on future earnings potential. The benchmark 10-year yield jumped further above 1.6% to reach its highest level since November, albeit while remaining low on a historical basis.

"[Yields are] moving sharply higher today or in the very recent past, but they've been stubbornly lower when you compare them to what the inflationary talk has been," Scott Kimball, Co-Head of U.S. Fixed Income for BMO Global Asset Management, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. "There's been lots of discussion about runaway inflation, the Fed being behind the curve. All of that would translate into a long-end — the 10, 20, 30-year portion of the yield curve — that's a lot steeper, or materially higher even in absolute terms than it is right now."

Meanwhile Eddie Ghabour, Eddie Ghabour, founder of KeyAdvisors Group and author of "Common Sense Bull," told Yahoo Finance he expected the move higher in rates so far this week would ultimately prove to be a "head fake."

"This increase in rates doesn't concern me at all. I think it's going to be short-lived," he said. "The bigger concern I have right now is the fact that a lot of investors are still carrying a tremendous amount of risk heading into a year that's going to be unprecedented when the Fed is tightening during a slowdown. It usually is not a good recipe for high-risk assets.

11:27 a.m. ET: Microsoft shares drop 2.5%, pacing toward fifth straight day of losses

Shares of software behemoth Microsoft (MSFT) were on track to fall for a fifth straight day on Wednesday, falling by as much as 2.5% at session lows.

If Microsoft shares end the session lower, it would mark the stock's longest losing streak since September. The drop came amid a broader drawdown in highly valued technology and growth stocks, in part coming as Treasury yields rose and pressured lofty tech valuations."

MY COMMENT

What I have put in BOLD above pretty much sums up my view of the day and the current markets. The short term thinkers and short term traders are chasing after the energy and financial sectors in the markets. This is TYPICAL micro-hind-sight trading. Not something I am interested in doing as a long term investor. SO......

I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

Here is the economic release of the day....which no one will care about as usual.
December private payrolls rose by 807,000, far exceeding expectations: ADP

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-private-payrolls-adp-employment-labor-131559127.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. private employers added jobs at a much faster-than-anticipated rate in December, helping to alleviate some worker shortages as the tight U.S. labor market persisted.

The U.S. economy saw 807,000private payrolls return in the final month of 2021, ADP said in its closely watched report on Wednesday. This compared to the 410,000 job gains consensus economists anticipated, based on Bloomberg data. Employers had brought back 505,000 jobs in November, according to ADP's revised estimate for that month.

Job growth in leisure and hospitality industries contributed nearly one-third of the total payroll gains in December, with the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic making some of the biggest strides in recovering. These employers brought back 246,000 workers in December. In other areas of the service economy, job growth was also significant in December. Trade, transportation and utilities employers brought back 138,000 payrolls, while professional and business services employment grew by 130,000.

In the goods-producing sector, both construction and manufacturing employers saw job growth accelerate compared to November. Jobs grew by 62,000 and 74,000, respectively, for these industries during December.

Over the course of 2021, employers added back payrolls at a rate above historical trends, based on data from both ADP and the U.S. Labor Department, with the labor market regaining some lost ground after 2020's swift but severe recession amid the pandemic.

As many as 882,000 private payrolls came back in a single month in 2021 in May, ADP's data showed. But the rate of hiring has slowed in the months since, following an initial surge in hiring after vaccinations picked up in the U.S. last spring and stay-in-place orders eased.

ADP's December report comes amid a slew of other data pointing to the tight labor market heading into the new year. And in the past month, concerns over soaring Omicron case counts have compounded with existing pressures on the labor market, making it even more difficult for workers to return and employers to find staff.

Job openings stood at a near-record of more than 10.5 million in the U.S. in November, based on the Labor Department's latest count. Churn within the labor market has also been elevated, as a record 4.5 million people quit their jobs in November. And given the discovery of the first Omicron case in the U.S. in late November, many economists expect to see additional virus-related impacts to the labor market meaningfully appear in the monthly jobs data for January.

"With labor market conditions already exceptionally tight, employment growth will continue to slow over the course of 2022 unless the labour force begins to rise more markedly," Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note Tuesday. "Renewed virus concerns and a new wave of school closures will keep some potential workers on the side lines while the widening net of vaccine mandates will, in the short term at least, further constrain labour supply."

Coming two days before the Labor Department's jobs report, the ADP report serves as one measure setting expectations for the "official" government jobs report. However, ADP's print during the pandemic especially has served as an imperfect indicator of what to expect from the Labor Department's reports. In three of the past four months, ADP's print overshot the Labor Department's payrolls figure, which last came in at a disappointing 210,000 for November.

Consensus economists expect to see the Labor Department report non-farm payroll gains of 424,000 for the final month of the year, more than doubling November's count. The unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 4.1% from November's 4.2%, albeit while remaining above the 50-year low of 3.5% from February 2020.

The Labor Department's December jobs report is set for release Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET."

MY COMMENT

YEP.......the labor markets are TOTALLY screwed up. Of course that is about all you have to say or know on the issue. It is interesting that.....as usual.....the economic experts were ONLY off by about 50% on this number. The bottom line.....EVERYONE.....is totally flying by the seat of their pants on any of this stuff and no one has a clue what is happening or why.

We have now reached the point where there is some economic report being released on some bit of data just about EVERY DAY. That is why no one cares about any of this stuff......other than for about 1-2 days after each release. More often than not the expert expectations are simply WRONG. Another reason for us regular people that dont know anything.....to smile.