Let me clarify why I feel this political question is germane to investment discussion. This enjoyable thread contains opinion that seems to suggest you folks (everyone, other than me) in this thread view the response to coronavirus as an attempt to undermine the Trump presidency and financial success of current policies. I won't comment on the anger but it is of interest to me, also. You folks seem to think growth will be limited, worst case. I see a decimated tourist industry, supply chain problems, and the potential of curtailment of consumer demand as a major threat. In fact, my reasonable case view is a loss of GDP between 1 and 2% for 2020Q3. Obviously, I believe in my scenarios but I don't have high confidence in my view. I'm aware that consumer confidence has more authority on the economy than fundamentals so political philosophy is of great interest to me. It's also interesting from a human interest point of view. If you would consider an open discussion on this topic, we might both gain from it considerably. At least, I believe I would. Kind regards.
HERE is a very relevant article to the current market behavior: Yes, there’s a pandemic and the market is falling. Do this instead of checking your 401(k) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/y...your-401k-2020-03-12?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo (BOLD is my opinion or what I consider important content) Stock market volatility can be normal, but it’s also unnerving — and for some investors, it’s just impossible to stomach. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, -9.068% one of Wall Street’s major stock benchmarks, dropped more than 20% from its all-time high in February, and entered bear market territory on Wednesday. This benchmark, as well as others, have been in an overall bull market since the financial crisis in 2008-09, but it has been experiencing extreme volatility, in part because of oil price wars and fears of the spreading coronavirus derailing global economies. The S&P 500 SPX, -8.251% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, -8.177% both fell 19% from their all-time closing highs in February. Naturally, this might stress some investors out — especially in regards to the nest egg they’re building for their retirement through a 401(k) plan or individual retirement account. Instead of logging in to their accounts to check on 401(k) balances — which may cause even more stress — investors should check in on their risk tolerance. “These last few weeks have been a test of the fortitude that investors have,” said Aaron Klein, co-founder and chief executive officer of Riskalyze, a technology company with a program for financial advisers to assess clients’ capacity for risk. Risk tolerance is the level of exposure to loss that an investor can handle, especially during nerve-wrecking ups and downs in the market. Many investment firms, financial advisers and automatic online investing platforms try to gauge investors’ risk tolerance by asking them simple questions. But how someone feels while they’re sitting at an adviser’s office or on their couch while they’re setting up an account is not exactly how they’ll feel when push notifications and television network news hosts tell them the market is falling. In the same vein, the latter scenario is not the time to make a rash decision about investments, as emotions are high. “If history has taught us anything, it is that people who sold at the bottom in the 2008 crisis were the ones who never fully recovered,” Klein said. “So now is probably the wrong time to recalibrate or discover risk tolerance for the first time.” There are a few factors that go into calculating how much risk should be in a portfolio, including age, expected retirement date and how much money an investor expects to need to see her goals through in the future. Young investors are usually encouraged to have their portfolios in mostly risky investments, such as equities, because time is on their side and their portfolios can afford to handle downturns. Older investors nearing retirement are usually cautioned to downsize the risk in their portfolios, but sometimes told they should still have some “riskier” investments in the portfolio so that it continues to grow through the next few decades of their lives in retirement. But what should a person do when they’re watching the stock market indexes drop, and afraid all of their money will be lost? First: Nothing yet. Investors should have a financial plan alongside their portfolios, and if they work with an adviser, that professional should have incorporated market volatility and potential downturns into their investment strategies. Investors who are especially nervous may want to reach out to their financial adviser, or if they are individual investors using online platforms alone, call the company to talk to a professional to walk them through possible options. “Ultimately, investors who are feeling fearful need to remember the worst investing decisions are made out of fear,” Klein said. Then, for those particularly worried about the market and their money, they need to think through their goals, and possibly consider reducing the risk in their portfolios, said David Totah, a partner and senior wealth adviser at Exencial Wealth Advisors. “You have to develop a plan or work with someone who can help you get through tough times, so you can sleep at night,” he said. Still, even the most risk-averse person may want some risk in their portfolios (perhaps a little more than they think they can handle). “If you reduce the risk, you’re going to give up return,” Totah said. That could result in less money to fund goals in retirement. It also helps to think of the context behind a lower account balance. Seeing an account balance drop is unpleasant, but providing perspective helps, said Tanja Hester, who retired at age 38 almost two years ago. She advises investors to look at the last time their accounts were at the balance they’re currently at, and ask themselves how they were feeling then. For example, if an investor’s 401(k) balance has dropped to where it was in November, and they don’t need the money for a few more decades, did having that account balance then feel OK? Selling investments out of fear could result in long-term losses, so it’s important to stick to a plan. “Market volatility went from conceptual to very, very real, and the real key for understanding and controlling risk tolerance is to understand it well in advance before market volatility hits,” Klein said. Risk tolerance comes down to a balance between money in the market now and goals and spending needs in the future. “As to right now, what percentage of your investment you’re willing to lose in exchange for an opportunity to gain,” Klein said. MY COMMENT NOW is gut check time for investors. ESPECIALLY those that considered themselves long term investors and are now starting to feel those GNAWING doubts. If YOU are starting to panic, you need to evaluate your risk tolerance and investment mix going forward. Guess what.......I continue to be fully invested as usual.
SORRY....TomB16. I am NOT going to discuss (argue) politics or related topics. It is a WASTE of time. I am NOT going to change anyone's opinion on any related issue. AND, others are NOT going to change my opinions. If you are a Democrat....YES, we have (some?, many?) totally different views of politics and philosophy. Personally I am a mild LIBERTARIAN. AS to your statement: "seems to suggest you folks (everyone, other than me) in this thread view the response to coronavirus as an attempt to undermine the Trump presidency and financial success of current policies. I won't comment on the anger but it is of interest to me, also. You folks seem to think growth will be limited, worst case." I NEVER mention politics in this thread and never will. I have RARELY mentioned Trump or any of his policies except perhaps in an investing context. I pull and post articles and information from MANY SOURCES, some liberal, some conservative, many just business oriented. I read MANY sites every day that span the political spectrum, including four news papers (all liberal). NOTHING I have posted reflects any anger. If you are reading it that way, it is due to your own personal bias and the sterile communication that happens on message boards with no personal, face to face, human, cue's. If you are reading the above into my comments, not my problem. I am not gong to censor or try to limit others in what they wish to post on this thread. If other people choose to get political that is their right. The fact that I MAY NOT respond to what they said does not mean I agree or disagree. MY focus of this thread is LONG TERM INVESTING........not politics, but I am not going to limit or argue with anyone else in what they might post and how they think.
This whole "pandemic" spread is VERY political. You dont have to be a great economist to understand this. You just have to look at the number of cases in relation to market reaction and compare to other spreads in the past. I am not here to weigh in on what side of the isle you have to be in to be right or wrong, because I dont know as well as no one else. But its clear that there's panic created in the media all over the world about this. If I was to assume anything here I would go with a theory of a world economic division which at the helm pits China vs America. The current market reaction in relation to THAT theory makes more sense to me than to the corona virus spread. I believe that things will get alot worse, sorry for being so pessimistic, as there are a million ways this can play out. Imagine if our president (or any other huge political figure for that matter) gets infected. Imagine if they die because of this? Will you look at it as a pandemic as well? Especially when there are ONLY +100K cases reported? Even over a million? Possible?... Yes. Likely?... No But heck, I wouldnt think it was possible for an A list celebrity to get infected from this up until yesterday either The last time something close to that happened was with the spread of HIV in the 80s and Magic Johnson... How did the market react then?
Hey WXYZ, hope all is good this in this shitty market lol. All jokes aside, I've been lurking your thread for awhile now, ~2 months to be accurate. I made an account today to message you, and will be very appreciated to hear your opinion on couple things I'm about to do. Before that I want to say thank you for your contribution and sharing your knowledge to everyone, including myself. I knew about Roth IRA 2 months ago through my childhood friend. After I did my homework on my own, one of the reason I found this website and your thread. I committed to go all in, I max out 2019 and 2020 Roth IRA contribution for a total of 12k on 1/23/20. I invested it in VTI at Vanguard. Around 2 weeks later I open a brokerage account and invested 6k toward VOO. As you can see now, I'm down around 4k total. I thought I time the market right with the VOO investment lol, boy I'm so wrong. I really thought this Corona was all media hype and it was all going to die out, but it's getting crazier now it seems. NBA, NHL, NCAAB games will play without fans. College my friend go to, Temple, will switch to online classes starting this Monday coming up. A little about myself so you can pinpoint on what type of an risk taker I am and such. I am 31 years old, and like you I believe in long term investment as well. Whatever I invested in like those above, I'm willing to lose it all. I didn't even want to log in my account to see the number, but I did, so I can provide you on the date of the investment and the # lol. I'm not going to lie, it SUCKS seeing it! I tried to justify myself so I can sleep better I suppose, that you can't time the market. If everyone have the ability to do that, everyone is a millionaire lol. I knew about ROTH IRA and i just went all in. Whatever I invested in Vanguard will be for the next 20 years+. Like I said, if it goes to $0, so be it. I've crypto currency invested too, so this ups and downs I should be already getting used to, but it never seem easy seeing it in the red. Crypto market is crashing hard too as of today. SIGH! I'm about to go all in again during this SALE lol. AMERICAN BRAND, ICONIC (I do my reading lol). Here are the lists: Costco, American Express, Coke, Pepsi, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Visa A, JPmorgan, Microsoft, Nike, Procter&Gamble, J&J, Alphabet A. I'm thinking of around 6k-10k and spread it all out evenly. I would love to hear what your thought on that. I know you don't invest in bank and such, but I can't see them going anywhere soon. Timing. I think this is the toughest part, will it go lower? Or don't think too much about timing and the lowest point (no one can't IMO) and just go for it. Believe in your intuition I suppose? BTW, my username is a reminder for myself 20+ years from now (hopefully this thread will still be here), that I stay mentally strong during this downtime and I fought it through. I can't wait to see how my portfolio turn out 20 years from now! Looking forward to hear from you and please don't go easy on me. I'm very eager to learn. Thank you once again. Another thought, it sucks that you took a big junk out and was timing the Corona hype with the market. ONLY if you've waited like a week more to get back in. You had the concept and the plan all written out correctly though!
HI Corona Your funds are NOT going to go to ZERO. As an investor in total stock market and SP500, you will be just fine.....If.....you are a long term investor. I am JOKING when I say this, but it is true.....if your funds go to ZERO that means that the entire world economy has collapsed and gone to ZERO. NOTHING will matter at that point. As to investing in the individual stocks.... YOUR DECISION. BUT...."if it was me", after today, I would wait at least a week or two more and PERHAPS longer depending on what I was seeing week to week. We could be near a bottom OR we could have another 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% to go.....NO ONE knows. This event is a RANDOM, IRRATIONAL, PANIC, that has NOTHING to do with fundamental economics. Your guess is as good as anyone short term. Yes, I had the perfect plan some weeks ago and my timing would have been perfect. BUT, it did not happen. I am NOT generally a trader or one to cry over hindsight......so at this point I will continue with my USUAL long term style and wait out the CRAZINESS. I will simply wait it out and continue on like probably 75-90% of all investors. I dont give investment advice...so the above is NOT intended as specific investing advice to you. WHATEVER you do, anything you invest over the coming weeks or months is likely to do very well over the LONG TERM, since you will be buying at a 20-30% discount minimum.
Thank you for the quick reply. Hopefully this is not a stupid question. It's very tough to beat the SP500 as a regular Joe, like you even mention in earlier thread as well. So may I ask, why and what benefits/reason of investing in individual stocks vs just put it all in the SP500? Of course trying to beat SP500 is the very obvious one. Does it like pay more dividend? This part kind of confuse me a little. Thanks.
There was the ebola crisis of 2014 which was covered relentlessly by the 24 hours news cycle. The media fixated on it, as they do these sort of things. While it didn't feature the numbers and was clearly less contagious, it had a death rate of 90% so everyone was freaking out. I don't recall that being cited as partisan but it could be, based on the profile you have laid out.
Oh no, what I meant was THIS TIME it has political interpretations. Not before. But in relation to say Ebola, or SARS, or any other health crisis - was the market AS volatile as it is now? The only other comparisons that we get for how it’s acting now is 2008 and 1987. Both of which weren’t a reaction of any health crisis. My interpretation is that this is not a health crisis. That’s just the trigger of a global economy crisis that has been sparked by our trade deal negotiations with China. Not that it makes sense, but it makes better sense to me than gauging the market reaction to a health crisis from previous incidents
NOT MUCH to say about today. BEST I can do is once again report that I beat the SP500 by .68%. CORONA: You hit the nail on the head. YES....the professionals as well as the amateurs can NOT routinely, consistently, beat the SP500. That is EXACTLY why I just about always say that the average person should just put everything into a SP500 Index Fund, reinvest all dividends and capital gains, and no need for anything else. The other benefit is dong so involves no trading, no thinking, no analysis, no daily, weekly, or monthly work. A person busy with family, work, play, and all sorts of other life happenings can get great returns and put in little to no work other than being diligent about saving money. In that fund you will earn a very nice, roughly 2% dividend, have great diversification with 500 companies, and a PROVEN record of exceptional performance. It is a rare investor that can beat the SP500 long term. It is a rare professional mutual fund manager that can beat the SP500. People invest otherwise because: They fool themselves. They like the challenge and mental stimulation of trading. They are shorter term investors. They like to control their own money and investments. They have a different philosophy than people like me. It is macho to do your own investments. They dont know any better. Some, all, or none of the above. I am sure there are many other reasons I am not thinking of. Perhaps others can say why they actively invest versus an index like the SP500. That is an interesting question for any investor. As for myself, I have been able to beat the SP500.......long term. BUT if I look at 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, ten year, lifetime performance I will be beating it some of those time spans and not others, and it changes from year to year. I do know and understand however, that one of the reasons I am beating it long term is because of a few critical stock investments at just the right time. Take those out and it is a different story. Lately I have been beating it nearly every day. BUT...there will be time periods that I do not beat it. I do evaluate my portfolio and mutual fund performance against the SP500......as my BENCHMARK......... at the end of every year. I ALSO think that some day when I am tired of doing what I have done for a long time now, I will simply take my own advice and just put everything except for a few favorite stocks into a SP500 Index Fund. If you know who Warren Buffett is....his estate plan for after his death instructs the trustee to put 90% in a SP500 Index fund for the long term. HERE is what he said in his trust instructions: "My advice to the trustee couldn't be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard's.) I believe the trust's long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors — whether pension funds, institutions or individuals — who employ high-fee managers."
HERE is good news out of China. A country of over 1 Billion people, with a third world health care system at best and ZERO concern of the lives of its people. Yet we are expected to face tens of millions of infections and depending on the media source 80,000 to hundreds of thousands of deaths. YES......I still dont buy how OUR media is hyping this self fulfilling crisis: Virus Update: Cases top 125,000, China says peak is over https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1877349/virus-update-cases-top-125-000-china-says-peak-is-over "China says the peak of the outbreak in the country is “generally over” but the situation elsewhere remains grim. China reported just 15 new cases of infection and 11 additional deaths for Wednesday, a dramatic fall from the thousands of new cases it was seeing daily last month. In total, China now has 80,793 cases of infection and 3,169 deaths. There have been 62,793 discharged patients." (I posted only the china excerpts from this general article) There is much info about various countries in the above article. AND SOME GOOD NEWS out of China for APPLE: Apple gets good news: Foxconn’s Chinese factories are running again https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/apple-good-news-foxconn-chinese-factories-running "Apple iPhone assembler Foxconn Technology has resumed production at its mainland China factories. Production has “exceeded expectations” since it resumed after the coronavirus outbreak prompted an extended halt of work at Foxconn, the world’s largest electronics manufacturer, founder Terry Gou Tai-ming told Reuters. In February, Foxconn reported an 18.1 percent drop in revenue compared to a year earlier. The company blamed the outbreak and said it was its worst hit since March of 2013. Since work has resumed, supply chains have been restored for Foxconn’s China and Vietnam factories, Reuters reported. However, Foxconn could still face weak consumer demand due to the outbreak, according to the report. There were more than 124,000 cases confirmed worldwide as of Thursday, including more than 1,300 in the U.S. “In the United States, what we are worried about is the market,” Gou told Reuters. “If production was resumed quickly but consumers stops pending … that would be key to the economic recovery.” There are also “concerns” about Foxconn’s supply chain in Japan and South Korea, according to Gou. South Korea, in particular, is one of the hardest-hit countries in the outbreak, with nearly 8,000 cases confirmed there as of Thursday, according to the World Health Organization." MY COMMENT NEVER let the facts get in the way of a good PANIC. (tongue in cheek)
Awesome read! Very well put. Thank you. "I do know and understand however, that one of the reasons I am beating it long term is because of a few critical stock investments at just the right time". I thought of this while I was asking the question, but I want to hear from you first. You did buy that Microsoft stock at the early stage, which paid off tremendously! "The other benefit is dong so involves no trading, no thinking, no analysis, no daily, weekly, or monthly work". That is so totally me LOL, so SP500 it is! I'll also keep my eyes on the next Google, Microsoft, and Amazon (at their early stage). Hopefully in my life time there will be couple of them showing up. Which for my next question I would like to ask you please. How are you able to distinguish/identify (hopefully that is a correct choice of words) a once in a lifetime company like such, in their "baby form"? I remember in your earlier thread of how you were able to identify that Microsoft will be available in every household (something like that?). That was such a calculated risk move and you went all in. It must feel amazing to make a bold move like that and most importantly, the correct one!
My fund side of my holdings are holding up to the averages, but my stock side is below. Will look at this event as a learning tool to correct my stock side holdings over time. I have done nothing over the last 3 weeks, and plan to stay the course. Libertarian (populist, nationalist) if anyone is wondering. Happy Investing!
Trahn...nice to see a fellow Libertarian. I will NOT discuss politics but will say as a Libertarian I am Liberal on personal liberties and freedoms. Conservative on economic, defense, and keeping government out of peoples lives issues. AND, believe in protecting the rights of INDIVIDUALS as set out in the Constitution. That is as far as I will discuss or post politics. $$$2020$$$ Welcome to the board. There are MANY great threads on this board. I dont follow DAL, but I dont think it is a rookie mistake to buy what you think is a good investment. DAL is trading over 37 at the moment. You are only down less than $3 per share. If you truly think it was a mistake, just sell and take a small loss. If it is a long term holding that you are confident in than hold through all this short term mess and see how you do. EVERYTHING is down right now, so dont beat yourself up. If it was a mistake, welcome to the club, we all make mistakes. CORONA "How are you able to distinguish/identify (hopefully that is a correct choice of words) a once in a lifetime company like such, in their "baby form?" That is a ZILLION dollar question. If there was an easy answer everyone would be RICH. I would say having the business skills and stock market investing experience is one factor. BUT.......THE BIG FACTOR......is LUCK, being in the right place at the right time and happening to notice something going on around you. Another factor is independent thinking. Entrepreneurial thinking. For example, as I have said, when I started watching and bought MSFT in 1990/1991....I was living in Redmond, Wa the home of MSFT. They were more on the radar as a local company. AND....at that time they were already a thriving, but young company, NOT just a start up. They were very much in the news at that time since it was the advent of the mainstream COMPUTER ERA and the DOT-COM era. I had about a hour commute every day to and from my business. So, I would listen to the local news and business radio in the car. AND, every day I was hearing Microsoft, Microsoft, Microsoft, as their stock price was booming and they were doing stock splits. That got me interested. Same process with COSTCO, STARBUCKS, NIKE.....see a common thread. ALL these companies were local companies where I lived. Costco and Starbucks in Seattle. Nike just down the road in Portland Or. I still own Costco and Nike. I sold out of Starbucks a long time ago, but held them through their big growth and expansion years. As I said, partly LUCK.....I just happened to be living in a place where there companies were blowing up BIG and were on the radar. At the same time they were very much in their infancy. ANOTHER company that fits the above is AMAZON. Another Seattle company. I waited a long time to invest....but they are another one of those GREAT, once in a lifetime, companies for anyone that invested even as late as 5-10 years ago. MY PERSONAL VIEW.....NOT investing advice to anyone.....is that AMAZON is STILL one of the greatest investments available. They are an AMAZING company with AMAZING management and long term focus. AND......I will say....BEWARE of start up and IPO companies that are HEAVILY HYPED and NOT making a profit. Early, young companies that are making a profit with rocket type growth ahead of them are one thing. BS IPO'S and start ups are another. I NEVER trust them. AND, there are always a lot of them.....the next BIG thing....etc, etc, etc. Yet a few years later they NEVER seem to make a profit and sooner or later....usually sooner...simply fade away.
FOR anyone that was NOT alive, too young, not an investor, or has no memory of 1987.....THE FLASH CRASH. Basically anyone under about age 40. How does it compare to NOW? How the Worst Day Since 1987 Compares to the Real Stock Market Crash of 1987 https://247wallst.com/investing/202...pares-to-the-real-stock-market-crash-of-1987/ (BOLD is my opinion or what I consider important content) March 12, 2020 will go down in the history books as the worst trading day since the stock market crash in October of 1987. And to say that the history books will say that assumes that there are not any worse days ahead. The Dow closed down 9.99% at 21,200.62 on Thursday, accompanied by a loss of 9.5% on the S&P 500 to 2,480.64 and a loss of 9.4% to 7,201.80 on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. That means that the bull market that had raged for 11 years until the middle of February has already turned into a raging bear market that is now down nearly 30% from its peak. 24/7 Wall St. wanted to look at the daily data for a comparison back to Black Monday on October 19, 1987. We have used the Dow as the major reference mark because back then the Dow was how even the most of the professional investors of the day referred to “the stock market.” The Dow’s closing bell of 21,200.62 on October 12, 2020 was down a sharp 28.3% from the peak level of 29,568.57 just on February 12, 2020. The all-time peaks of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were roughly as brutal over the last month, even if the peaks may have been on different days. The S&P 500 is now down at 2,480.64 for a peak (3,393.52) to current closing trough loss of 26.9%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ’s 750 point drop on this day to 7,201.80 is down 26.8% from the February all-time high of 9,838.37. Now look back to the moves of 1987 versus today. There are some similarities in performance ahead of the 1987 crash (see charts below), but the real crash of 1987 was seen in a much shorter period. When the Dow crashed on October 19, 1987 it went from 2,246.73 the prior Friday to 1,738.74 that day. The numbers sure are smaller than today’s 21,200 but the 507.99 point drop that day represented a loss of 22.6% in a single trading day. The good news about the 1987 one-day crash is that the market did rebound sharply for two pivotal trading days to 1,841.01 the next day and then to 2,027.85. The bad news about that 289.11 point rally over the next two days in October of 1987 was that the recovery was only about 57% of what was lost in a single day. And more bad news was that a range of roughly 2,000 to 2,050 in the Dow acted as strong resistance on the charts on multiple occasions for months and the market lingered for a long period. It was not until January 6, 1988 that the the Dow managed to close higher than the 2-day recovery period (again, 2,027.85) with a close of 2,037.80. Zooming forward a year to October 19, 1988 had the Dow only at 2,137.27, and the Dow seemed to stumble every time it rose about 2% to 3% from the 2,100 mark. What is rather interesting about the period of the crash of 1987 compared to 2020 is that the Dow had peaked at 2,746.65 on August 25, 1987 after rising as much as 44.8% from the close-out Dow price of 1,895.95 at the end of 1986. Comparing that move to 2020, the Dow’s fourth quarter of 2018 was a period of extreme panic selling as long as it’s not compared to this period now. That panic-selling low close for the Dow in late 2018 was 21,792.20 on December 24, 2018. That put the Dow’s recent peak of 29,568.57 up 35.7% from that closing low reference point in late 2018. There are many issues to consider about reference in 2020 to 1987. Pure technicians would suggest that chart comparisons always matter. Fundamentalists would argue that the modern economy is vastly different from then versus now, and it’s hard to ignore that only 12 of the Dow’s 30 components of 2020 were members of the Dow back at the time of the 1987 crash. IBM was the only tech stock in the Dow at the time of the 1987 crash, when most small and mid-sized businesses were still using typewriters. Back in 1987 the market was dealing with a frothy performance, but the interest rate environment was night and day back then. There was no such thing as a coronavirus or any other type of virus that caused the 1987 crash, and they didn’t even really have OPEC to blame. The difference between then and now on the regulation side is that we now have tight trading curbs that prevent a free-fall of that magnitude from happening as rapidly, and interest rates are at extreme lows in 2020. Perhaps the only good news here about what’s happening in 2020 is that the trading halts and trading curbs did appear to actually work. And let’s call it like it is — even as crappy as this trading day turned out to be, it almost felt like it could have been worse. We have included 3 stock charts from BigCharts.com as a reference point. The first includes a one-year Dow chart for all of 1987. The second chart is from September 1, 1986 to December 31, 1987 and the last chart includes the Dow’s dismal fourth quarter of 2018 up to March 12, 2020. Source: BIGCHARTS.COM MY COMMENT THAT drop in 1987 was just as IRRATIONAL as the current drop and panic. It was set off and driven by a TOTAL failure of a hedging method known as "Portfolio Insurance" which all the BIG BOYS were using and declaring to be a high tech tool that would prevent them from losing money. That high tech tool instead caused a cascading, self fulfilling drop in the DOW of 22.6% IN ONE DAY. It was the advent of the QUANTS and computer driven hedging models. The impact was just as NASTY as how the markets are currently being driven down by Algorithmic computer trading in the current situation. Those of us that held through it all recovered and did just fine.
WELL.....today was a needed shot in the arm for the markets. I would like to think it has something to do with a return to RATIONAL thinking. But....probably NOT. I would guess that most people, especially the professionals, want to be LONG going into the weekend anticipating the news of a deal in Congress on a virus relief package.
(BREATHLESS and SENSATIONALISTIC).....VIRUS UPDATE: USA - Total cases 2053 New cases 356 Total deaths 41 Active cases 1981 Critical cases 10 New deaths 0 And drum roll please........YES.....a statistic that uses the entire population of the USA and the number of cases. (WTF) Total cases per 1 MILLION of population 6.2 See USA under: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
HERE is the PERFECT example of the MEDIA and how they are hyping, fear mongering, and helping to TRASH the short term economy over the Wuhan Virus. Headlines from DRUDGE......right now: REPORT: Bolsonaro tests positive/negative days after meeting with Trump... Miami mayor infected... China govt spokesman says U.S. military may have brought virus to China... 'Be transparent! Make public your data! Owe us an explanation!' CDC NIGHTMARE SCENARIO: 1.7 MILLION DEATHS... 150 MILLION AMERICANS COULD GET INFECTED... Hospitals brace for 'tremendous strain'... Six patients for every bed? Survivors may suffer from reduced lung function... Testing lag ignites political uproar... Sick People Being Denied Across USA... President blames Obama... Tough measures rolled out across Europe to stop spread... The new epicenter... FED TO START BUYING TREASURIES... STOCKS POST BIGGEST RALLY SINCE '08... USA to purchase oil for strategic reserve... Countries Curb Short Selling... Mnuchin vows to keep markets open... Los Angeles Closes Schools... National Guard activated AND NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRUMP 'MOST LIKELY' TO BE TESTED COMPLETE SHUTDOWN ON TABLE CRISIS COULD LAST TWO MONTHS MODERN LIFE TURNS SURREAL SICK MAP AND.....this stuff is TAME compared to the REALLY CRAZY national media outlets.
To keep with the tradition of this thread and its amazing author Ive included an article which reflects my almost precise sentiment of the current market climate: https://www.independent.co.uk/voice...pandemic-economy-bankrupt-italy-a9394891.html (Highlighting the items that reflect my opinion as well) Coronavirus will bankrupt more people than it kills — and that's the real global emergency We may look back on coronavirus as the moment when the threads that hold the global economy together came unstuck Coronavirus’s economic danger is exponentially greater than its health risks to the public. If the virus does directly affect your life, it is most likely to be through stopping you going to work, forcing your employer to make you redundant, or bankrupting your business. The trillions of dollars wiped from financial markets this week will be just the beginning, if our governments do not step in. And if President Trump continues to stumble in his handling of the situation, it may well affect his chances of re-election. Joe Biden in particular has identified Covid-19 as a weakness for Trump, promising “steady, reassuring” leadership during America’s hour of need. Worldwide, Covid-19 has killed 4,389 with 31 US deaths as of today. But it will economically cripple millions, especially since the epidemic has formed a perfect storm with stock market crashes, an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, and the spilling over of an actual war in Syria into another potential migrant crisis. Just as important as fighting the virus — if not more important — is vaccinating our economies against the incoming pandemic of panic. Human suffering can come in the form of illness and death. But it can also be experienced as not being able to pay the bills or losing your home. Small businesses in particular are struggling as supply chains dry up, leaving them without products or essential materials. Factory closures in China have led to a record low in the country’s Purchasing Manager’s Index which measures manufacturing output. China is the world’s largest exporter and is responsible for a third of global manufacturing, so China’s problem is everyone’s problem — even in the midst of a trade war between the White House and Beijing. All this makes it even more worrying that governments continue to see this as a health crisis, not an economic one. It is time the economists took over from the doctors, before the real pandemic spreads. It is difficult to imagine Italy not entering a recession (the world’s ninth largest economy is now on lockdown). It is also difficult to imagine that failing to affect Europe and its largest trading partner, the United States. And it is impossible to see how any of this will not add up to a global downturn, unless governments step in faster and harder than they did 12 years ago during the last financial crisis. The stakes are higher this time, because there seems to be a coordinated effort to economically hurt many Western countries, and warn them away from the aggressive trade policies that Trump has so enthusiastically adopted. Although China bore the brunt of the virus’s economic and human cost, many in Beijing will see a silver lining in the weakening of the US economy, and a distraction from Trump’s trade wars that appeared to be escalating with no end in sight. Almost perfectly synchronized with the coronavirus, a Russia-Saudi oil war has erupted. In the short-term, both Moscow and Riyadh can afford the 30 per cent overnight drop in the oil price. But America’s shale gas business cannot: The more expensive process of fracking means that much of the US oil sector will simply not exist if oil prices stay at historic lows, leading to shut downs, job losses and perhaps even state-level recessions. President Trump has pushed through overdue payroll tax cuts and help for hourly workers — measures that will help both employers and employees survive. In the UK, Chancellor Rishi Sunak today unveiled a ‘Coronavirus Budget’. But everyone needs to think bigger if they want to properly deal with how this new factor changes the status quo. This is about much more than coronavirus, oil prices, or even the global economy. This is about the balance of power between East and West. The epicenter of this has been, for the last 10 years, Syria. After a decade of conflict on the ground, the face-off seems to have now escalated from proxy war to economic conflict. The emerging superpowers of Russia and China witnessed what many saw as American irrelevance in Syria. And they are now trying to cement their vision of a truly multi-polar world. Rather than allowing US ally Saudi Arabia to lead the oil markets through the OPEC cartel, Russia and China want to reshape global markets — and power balances — to their advantage. To survive these shifts, the US, UK and others will need to protect the future of their businesses, large and small, and look for opportunities to benefit from the new economic world order, not deny it. Ignoring these changes will be even more damaging than any flu pandemic.
