The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I HOPE that AMAZON is following the GOOGLE stock split announcement.......they could learn a lot from the Google management on this issue.

    Alphabet Seeks More Investors in 20-for-1 Stock Split

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-seeks-more-investors-20-221717428.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    ("Bloomberg) -- Alphabet Inc. announced a 20-for-1 stock split in the form of a one-time special stock dividend, aiming to draw a wider audience for its shares.

    The reason for the split is it makes our shares more accessible,” Ruth Porat, Alphabet’s chief financial officer, said in a conference call with television anchors. “We thought it made sense to do.”

    The new class of retail investors often weigh affordability and brand recognition when deciding which stocks to buy. Alphabet has been at a disadvantage, as its stock is expensive and uses the name of a holding company, rather than the globally recognized brand, Google.

    The stock split could lead to Alphabet’s listing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the most commonly quoted indexes that holds 30 blue-chip companies. It could also help the company on its path to cross a $2 trillion market cap. A prior stock split happened in 2014, after the company’s shares topped $1,000.

    Porat said the split announced on Tuesday will come at the close of business July 15.

    Alphabet shares extended gains to 7% at 4:24 p.m. New York time after the stock split was announced."

    MY COMMENT

    Sounds like a company that gave some strategic thought to doing a split and saw that there were definite advantages to their business. I dont care what anyone says.......these multi thousand dollar stock prices......DO.....discourage buyers from buying the shares.

    I hope that the fact that a number of the BIG CAP companies have now done stock splits....will lead to more companies being open to splitting their shares. it used to be the NORM in the old days. for some reason it fell out of favor in spite of the fact that splits are ALWAYS popular with shareholders.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    To continue the above discussion on Amazon.

    I am a shareholder and will continue to be a shareholder.......but.....there will come a time over the next 1-2 years when people will start to BAIL on the company. At the moment I understand what they are doing.....pumping money back into the business. BUT....people buy stock to make money and if they dont see any impact of an investment over a period of YEARS.....they will move on to a more productive use of their money.

    Amazon over one year shows a total return of (-9.5%)....probably the worst of the BIG CAP market leaders. Over three years they are still at +85.9%. What I believe is MORE of a danger signal is their share price over multiple years. The share price has been.....basically FLAT......since August of 2020. In August of 2020 the stock peaked around $3401........MOST......of the movement since than has been flat. There were a couple of very short peaks in that time period but the general trend has been FLAT. Of course.......RIGHT NOW.......the stock is significantly below that level. At the moment the stock is down today.....and....is at $3018.

    MANAGEMENT at Amazon needs to wake up and pull their head out of the sand. It is great to pump money back into a business.....but.....you can not just totally ignore the shareholders and potential shareholders. Part of what I see at Amazon is a total FAILURE of messaging and PR. Part of what I see is management that is disconnected from their shareholders.

    As an early Microsoft shareholder I held the stock from 1990 to 2002. At that time I sold all shares. It was clear at that point that the company was FLOUNDERING and the direct and simple cause was MANAGEMENT. They SQUANDERED one of the greatest company and business models and advantages in history. They went from DOMINANT to an afterthought. FORTUNATELY....they were able to turn it all around and become a leading BIG CAP company again. How did they do it......a return to great management.

    Amazon is not going to disappear........and......they are basically locked in as the dominant online shopping source for the near future. The big question will be......can they keep their shareholder base......can they continue to grow their stock total return and attract and keep their investor base. The next......COUPLE of years......will be critical.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WOW....I am having a really nice day today....if it can hold to the close. I have a good medium level gain and only two positions are down....Amazon and Tesla. If this holds......it will be a good number of positive days in a row. Perhaps it was a good thing to move on to a new month.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This little article certainly speaks the TRUTH.

    Not saving more for retirement now may cost you tens of thousands later. Here’s how to get started

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/01/sav...now-may-cost-you-tens-of-thousands-later.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • More than one-third of people admit to not having a retirement account, according to a Bankrate survey.
    • Not putting away money toward your later years can lead to regret later on. For every year you don’t invest, you may sacrifice tens of thousands of dollars in the future.
    • “It’s just so important to get started immediately,” one expert says.

    January has been a rough month for stocks.

    But while the market is down, it’s actually a great time to start investing toward your retirement, according to James Royal, analyst at Bankrate.com.

    A Bankrate survey found that almost 36% of respondents have never had a retirement account.

    Those investors are missing out on the most valuable component of the retirement savings process — time, Royal said.

    Not saving enough for retirement is the biggest financial regret for 19% of respondents, Bankrate also found.

    That remorse is likely to catch up with more people, because for every single year you don’t invest and allow your money to compound, you’re costing yourself tens of thousands of dollars in the future, Royal said.

    “It’s just so important to get started immediately,” he said.

    Identify the retirement account for you

    One big reason why people often do not save money toward retirement is that their employer does not provide a retirement savings plan, Royal said.

    But that shouldn’t necessarily stand in the way of you starting to invest for your retirement years, he said.

    Individual retirement accounts will still let you set aside pretax or post-tax funds and invest the money so it can grow.

    A traditional IRA allows you to contribute pretax money, which will lower your taxable income now. However, you will have to pay levies on the withdrawals you make in retirement later on.

    A Roth IRA, on the other hand, lets you contribute earnings that have already been taxed, therefore paving the way for tax-free withdrawals in retirement. Another plus: You may withdraw your contributions without penalty. (However, the earnings on any money invested may be subject to a 10% penalty and additional taxes depending on your age and how long the money has been invested.)

    The maximum you can contribute to IRA accounts in 2022 is $6,000 if you’re under age 50, or $7,000 if you’re age 50 and up. Each account is also subject to certain income phase-out ranges.

    If you have access to a 401(k) through your employer, you will be able to save even more. This year, savers can put away as much as $20,500, or $27,000 for those ages 50 and up.

    A 401(k) is the first place you should look to increase your retirement savings, Royal said.

    The reason: Many employers offer a match, meaning when you contribute, they will also put in some bonus money for you, up to a certain annual contribution rate.

    That match is free money, so it’s best to take full advantage of it, if you can, Royal said. Only after that should you look at other investing options like a Roth IRA, he said.

    Go for growth with your investments

    After you’ve identified which accounts are right for your needs, you then want to think about investments.

    Stocks generally have the best long-term growth potential. As such, your total exposure to stocks will matter more than whether you’re invested in an S&P 500 Index, growth stock or value stock fund, Royal said.

    If you are 10 years or more away from retirement, you have enough time to amp up your risk exposure by owning stocks. So long as you stay invested amid the market’s ups and downs, you will likely enjoy attractive long-term returns,

    Admittedly, finding the right asset mix can puzzle investors who are just starting out. In that case, you may want to opt for a target date fund based on your anticipated retirement date. Target date funds adjust the asset mix automatically as you approach retirement, moving toward more conservative bonds as you reach your desired date.

    However, even after you retire, you still need some exposure to stocks, due to the fact that your non-working years could last 20 years or more, Royal said.

    Just having that growth in your portfolio later on, even in retirement, gives you further options,” he said."

    MY COMMENT

    For those that have not started yet or are at the beginning of your investment life......no matter how old you are....the above is great advice. We have ALL been beginners. You simply take the first steps and begin to educate yourself.

    Investing should be fun and interesting. It is all about saving money, growing that money over the years, and compounding that money. Start out with an Index Fund....like the SP500. There is a lot of great information on that sort of fund on the internet.

    No one else can do it for you.....no one else can secure your future and the future of your family. DO IT NOW.....start this year and never look back.
     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Hanging out with the plumbers for the last hour or so. Getting the two vanities in the master bath and the half bath ready for the new vanity in the half bath and the two new countertops and side/back splash in the master bath.

    Nicely...the markets did not need my help. I was UP today....with only two stocks down.....Amazon and Tesla. I also got a pretty good beat on the SP500 by 0.72% today.

    The markets are on a hot streak right now. We have made back a good percentage of the losses that we got hit with in January. I really dont see much that should be NEGATIVE for the rest of the week. We will have the earnings from Amazon tomorrow......I believe they will come before the open.
     
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  6. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Up 1.21% for the day, 2.70% for the week so far.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    i dont own MTEA....(Facebook).....I have never liked the company....dont like their management....dont like their shareholder structure......and....dont like their views of society. So....their earnings MISS does not bother me in the slightest. I know a lot of people do own this company so I am posting their results. By far....the WORST results of any of the BIG CAP TECH companies.

    Meta earnings miss expectations amid Apple privacy changes, stock plummets

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-q4-earnings-2021-161355797.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Facebook parent company Meta (FB) reported its Q4 earnings on Wednesday, falling short of analysts' expectations on earnings per share, and missing on its Q1 outlook amid the continued crunch from Apple's iOS privacy changes.

    Here are the most important numbers from the report compared to what analysts were expecting, as compiled by Bloomberg.

    Crucially, Meta's Q1 2022 revenue came up short, with the company estimating between $27 billion to $29 billion in the current quarter, below analysts' expectations of $30.25 billion.

    Shares of Meta plummeted 22% following the report.

    The quarter marks the first time Meta has reported its earnings as a company focused on building out the metaverse, not just social media apps like Facebook and Instagram. But Meta has warned it will take time to build out its metaverse capabilities to the level where users can interact with each other across vast virtual worlds via augmented reality and virtual reality headsets.

    Q4 was also the first quarter in which Meta released revenue numbers for its Reality Labs segment, which piled up losses of $3.3 billion. CEO Mark Zuckerberg previously announced that the company spent $10 billion on its metaverse effort in 2021.

    More pressing in the near term is Meta’s ability to continue to navigate Apple’s (AAPL) recent privacy changes that allow iOS users to opt out of letting their apps track them across the web. The feature, called App Tracking Transparency, has been a roadblock for apps like Facebook and Snap (SNAP), which rely on that kind of data to sell ads to advertisers.

    And according to Meta CFO David Wehner, the iOS feature will hurt Meta moving forward.

    "We will lap a period in which Apple's iOS changes were not in effect and we anticipate modestly increasing ad targeting and measurement headwinds from platform and regulatory changes," he said.

    Wehner also pointed to inflation and supply chain disruptions, as well as exchange rates as the company's other pain points.

    That’s not Meta’s only problem, though. The company continues to face increasing competition from the likes of TikTok and Snap, and, more importantly, must contend with an ongoing antitrust lawsuit from the Federal Trade Commission.

    Last month, District Judge James Boasberg ruled that the FTC’s suit against Meta can continue despite protests from the social networking company. In its suit, the FTC alleges that Meta ran a buy or bury scheme in which it sought to quash competition from smaller up-and-coming rivals.

    The commission ultimately wants to break Meta up into smaller social networks. Without its combined network of apps, however, Meta would lose its spot as the world’s largest social media company. Whether that comes to pass, however, will take years to determine, as the suit is unlikely to be resolved in short order."

    MY COMMENT

    I will never own this stock. As I said I dont like the business model or the management. I dont like companies where......"I".....am the product. I also believe that all this METAVERSE talk is way over-blown. I do not see it as being more than a fringe tool for some small customer segment....probably gamers.....or....as a sort of "toy" for people to play with. I suspect that it will be at the minimum at least 20 years or more for anything significant to come of the metaverse.....and....at that time who knows what form it will take and what companies will be leaders in that space. I doubt it will be Meta.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So.....we have Facebook tanking the markets.....especially the NASDAQ.....at the open today. We have Amazon reporting......after the bell.....today. I give them a 50/50 on their earnings....as to whether they will be positive or negative. I should say......."perception"......of positive or negative.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I know it is a big "HOPE" to think that the markets might be rational in the short term.....but hopefully.....as the day progresses today we will see the markets disconnect from the Facebook disaster.......and move up.
     
  10. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    could this be the end of the navel gazing era?
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I sure wish you were right Emmett.....but I dont think so. I know lots of people own Facebook....even though I dont.....so, here is the reason for their current disastrous earnings.

    Where are the users? Why Facebook's stock is imploding

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/03/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "London (CNN Business) Competition from TikTok. A stagnant user base in key markets. A pricey bid to invest in virtual reality that could take years to pay off.

    These are just a few reasons investors are dumping Facebook's Meta (FB) after a disastrous earnings report, which could wipe more than $200 billion off the company's market value.

    What's happening: Meta said after markets closed on Wednesday that its profits fell during the final three months of 2021 as the social media company invested heavily in technology it needs to ramp up its offerings in the "metaverse," which it sees as the future of its business.

    Its shares are down more than 22% in premarket trading, dragging other tech companies down with it. Snap and Pinterest, which report earnings Thursday, are 16% and 8% lower, respectively.

    Breaking it down: There's a laundry list of reasons why Meta's earnings delivered a reality check for Wall Street.
    CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that competition from rival TikTok, whose short-form video product is more popular than Meta's, is weighing on the company's ability to monetize its Reels product.


    "We face a competitor in TikTok that is a lot bigger, so it will take a while to compound and catch up there," Zuckerberg said on a conference call with analysts.

    Monthly active users of Facebook also stagnated versus the previous quarter at 2.91 billion, while daily active users in the United States and Canada dropped. And Meta reported slowing growth in its core advertising business, which still makes up around 99.5% of its total revenue.

    Yet the biggest shock may have come from Zuckerberg's wishy-washy assessment of the company's outlook as Meta pumps billions of dollars into augmented and virtual reality.

    "This fully realized vision is still a ways off," he said. "And although the direction is clear, our path ahead is not yet perfectly defined."

    UBS analysts Lloyd Walmsley, Chris Kuntarich and Mary McKennon had this to say in response: "Indeed."
    "We were struck by the magnitude of priorities the company is juggling concurrently (seven?), most of which do not appear likely to drive a near term improvement to the revenue outlook," they wrote in a note to clients.

    That stands in contrast to rival tech behemoths Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL), which have in recent years generated significant revenue from newer parts of their businesses.

    The analysts also expressed deeper concerns about Facebook's future. They pointed to a "world broadly moving away from Meta's strengths, as content consumption shifts towards creator content and private messaging and away from public sharing, effectively eroding the company's moats."

    On the radar: Facebook isn't the only tech firm whose stock is getting hammered in part because of questions about its user base.
    Shares of PayPal's stock plummeted 25% on Wednesday after the payments firm, an early pandemic darling, ditched its goal of developing a user base of 750 million. And Spotify (SPOT) just reported a lukewarm forecast for its subscriber growth this quarter, sending its stock down 10% in premarket trading."

    MY COMMENT

    It is too bad that the short term markets are just controlled by the so called "professionals....what a bunch of sheep. Those of us that dont own these companies just have to pay the short term price. The good news.......if you do not own Facebook or the companies that have issues.....your losses will be extremely short term........and......only on paper.
     
    #9511 WXYZ, Feb 3, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2022
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I may not own Facebook....but I do own Honeywell. The stock reported nice earnings but is getting punished for their forward statements and guidance......typical.

    Honeywell Earnings Are Fine. The Guidance Is the Problem.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/honeywell-hon-stock-earnings-guidance-51643887581

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    Industrial giant Honeywell International had a strong end to 2021, but fourth-quarter numbers won’t be what investors focus on Thursday. Weaker-than-expected guidance likely will weigh on the shares.

    Honeywell reported $2.09 in fourth-quarter per-share earnings from $8.7 billion in sales. Results were in line with what Wall Street was looking for. Analysts projected earnings of $2.08 a share from $8.7 billion in sales.

    A year ago, Honeywell reported earnings of $2.07 a share on sales of $8.9 billion.

    We remained resilient, focusing on operational excellence to deliver the commitments we made to shareholders,” said Chief Executive Darius Adamczyk in the company’s news release.

    Full-year earnings came in at $8.06 a share, above $8, which was the upper end of management’s original guidance. Improving profit margins in the company’s aerospace and energy-related divisions help boost earnings.

    Along with earnings, Honeywell offered its initial guidance for 2022. The company expects to earn between $8.40 and $8.70 a share from about $35.9 billion in sales. That is less that what Wall Street was looking for. Analysts are projecting about $8.93 in per-share earnings from $36.7 billion in sales.

    What’s more, free cash flow is expected to be about $4.9 billion in 2022. Analysts are projecting about $6 billion in free cash flow for this year. RBC analyst Deane Dray called guidance “mostly disappointing” in a research report Thursday.

    Dray rates Honeywell shares Hold and has a $224 price target on the stock.

    Honeywell stock was down 6% on Thursday. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are down about 1.3% and 0.9%, respectively.

    Melius analyst Scott Davis said the guidance seems conservative on the earnings conference call, which prompted a response from management.

    The first half will be slow, which actually means that we’ve got to have substantial acceleration in the second half,” said Adamczyk. “Although we’re bullish on improved supply-chain flow, it is a bit of an unknown … I think it’s a fairly reasonable guide to start the year.”

    The guidance continues a trend for U.S. industrial stocks. So far this earnings season, about half of the industrial stocks in the S&P 500 have reported numbers. Roughly 85% have beaten Wall Street expectations. The stocks, however, have declined about 0.7% on average after reporting solid numbers.

    Guidance is a big reason for the weak reactions. Companies are taking a conservative approach given rising costs and rising interest rates.

    Honeywell peer General Electric (GE) is an example. GE reported in-line fourth-quarter results, but earnings guidance was below expectations and the stock dropped 6% following its earnings report on Jan. 25.

    Both GE and Honeywell have large aerospace businesses. The pandemic continues to affect demand for travel. Aerospace sales at Honeywell dropped 3% in the fourth quarter."

    MY COMMENT

    As usual companies that post nice earnings and conservative guidance....are being punished. With half of the SP500 having reported and.......an amazing.....85% BEATING expectations on their numbers.......they are DECLINING an average of 0.7% after reporting. This has been the norm for years now.

    Good management should be conservative in their guidance. AND....in fact that is why we usually see the vast majority of companies BEAT expectations. But....you can never satisfy the short term markets. PLUS....it helps the traders to make money with their day to day AI, Program, Micro, and other types of daily trading activity.
     
    #9512 WXYZ, Feb 3, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2022
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    While doing my daily reading earlier today I heard someone on the business TV commenting on the FACT that Amazon has been flat for 18 months now. I am actually looking forward to their earnings after the bell today.....as a shareholder and as an investor. There is always some slight hope that they will announce a surprise stock split. I have not seen any speculation on this today.....so I doubt it will happen. BUT....hope springs eternal.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The little Ice Storm that we are having today.....it is really very minimal so far....caused my show tomorrow to get canceled. So far, my Saturday show has not canceled. That one is a little 120 mile drive each way. We are expected to have a bit of ice and winter mix for about one day....perhaps a day and a half. AND....as usual.....after all the media HYPE.....people swept into the supermarkets and cleaned out the shelves. INSANITY.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    One good thing about the Facebook earnings report. It made me aware of the Apple App Tracking settings. I have now set both of our phones to eliminate App Tracking. I was not aware of this option before I saw the Facebook earnings reports.
     
  16. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    in a thousand years researchers will look back and say what an interesting time, people with hundreds of pictures of themselves.
     
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  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    You all know my fascination with the IRS and my 2020 tax return that is caught up in the 8MILLION paper return backlog. As a result I continue to post articles about the IRS.

    IRS Forced to Reassign Employees to Handle Tax Return Backlog

    https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/irs-tax-returns-employees-backlog/2022/02/03/id/1055397/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The IRS is reassigning agency workers with prior experience in processing tax returns to help reduce the "unprecedented" backlog that built up over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, Politico reports.

    "This is an all-hands-on-deck situation to help people as quickly as possible and reduce the stress on employees who have been and continue to face unprecedented levels of inventory to be worked," Commissioner Chuck Rettig told agency employees on Wednesday.

    Part of the "servicewide initiative" will include reassigning about 1,200 IRS employees who used to work in the agency's accounts management group and have since taken other jobs. According to Rettig, these workers "are in the best position to provide the much-needed skills and support to serve the taxpayers represented in these inventories. The bottom line is we need this help."

    The employees are expected to return to their current positions by the end of the 2022 federal fiscal year in about eight months.

    Tony Reardon, president of the National Treasury Employees Union, said last month that "right now is probably the most stressful of the entire year," due to pandemic-related office closures, new benefit programs increasing the workload for government agencies, and ongoing work dealing with stimulus payments issued last year.

    "Employees recognize that they are not able to answer all the calls, do all the things they want to do, to perform the services necessary for the American people, that's a difficult thing for employees as well and really brings the morale down," Reardon told Spectrum News.

    "It's not a matter of if the IRS system is going to break, it's a matter of when," he added. "And I think we are now at a situation where we are starting to see the system is starting to break."'

    MY COMMENT

    If this was not so sad and dangerous it would be funny. The IRS is in danger of completely breaking down at the moment. This is a major government agency that is on the knife edge of failing. Another.....BIG.....impact of shutting down the government and the economy. Total turmoil.....absolute chaos.

    Since I won my Social Security appeal and have my payments straightened out without the 2020 return being processed......I dont care......in theory. I will care.......like everyone else......if this IRS breakdown that is starting to happen gets out of control and creates issues for the economy and the country.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I like this little article.....no....these companies are not like owning Coke or Proctor & Gamble or Phillip Morris in the old days.

    Meta stock blowup is an important investing lesson: strategist

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta...nt-investing-lesson-strategist-202112198.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Big-cap tech stocks such as Meta, parent of Facebook, and Netflix aren't as safe as Treasury bills, despite what the Wall Street community has pumped into the heads of investors for the past five years as these stocks have exploded. They aren't as safe as other large-cap stocks in the market, either.

    And those are but a few of the takeaways for investors in the wake of Facebook's post earnings 30% crash on Thursday, opines Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity chief markets strategist.

    "Everybody went and thought that some of these mega-cap growth names were defensive. It's not proving out that way," Dwyer said on Yahoo Finance Live.

    In defense of that view are the God awful market reactions to relatively weak earnings in the past week from high beta tech trades Facebook and Netflix.

    Facebook said Wednesday it added just 2 million monthly active users in the quarter, barely moving the needle from the prior quarter. In the third quarter, the platform added 15 million monthly active users.

    Daily active users fell by 1 million as Facebook saw increased competition from TikTok. The company missed analyst profit estimates by a whopping 14 cents.

    For 2022, Facebook sees slowing growth and a $10 billion hit from privacy changes to Apple's iOS operating system.

    As for streaming giant Netflix, its stock plunged 21.8% on Jan. 21 as it served up a tepid outlook for subscribers in the first quarter.

    These are starkly different stock price reactions than the norm with these two tech behemoths. All traders have known — generally — is minting money with Facebook, Netflix and companies similar to them in stature.

    Both Facebook and Netflix (two key members of the closely followed FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet’s Google) stock complex) have been two of the hottest stocks in the market these past five years amid very strong profit growth — rising 206% and 83%, respectively. During that same span, Apple shares have gained an impressive 444% and Amazon 245%. Google is up 255%.

    But the Facebook and Netflix routs hint that investors may look at the FAANG complex rather differently moving forward.

    In effect, investors could still assign super premium valuations to Google and Apple (winners in the cloud and wearables) while staying on the sidelines with Facebook and Neflix as they lack the same structural tailwinds (more stay-at-home pandemic plays).

    Adds Dwyer, "You are in the situation where a lot of folks went to these names thinking they are defensive. They aren't."

    A painful reminder for many Facebook investors today."

    MY COMMENT

    In the old days my portfolio contained 15 or 20 of the greatest BIG CAP dividend paying names. Companies like COKE, PHILLIP MORRIS, GE, ATT, COLGATE, PROCTOR & GAMBLE, etc, etc, that had been around for 30, 40, 50, years or more. What they all had in common was the fact that most of the paid EXTREMELY high dividends like clockwork. Even in a down market or a bear market....you had that nice healthy dividend to reinvest in cheap shares. They would split their stock when they hit about $80 to $100. Most of these sorts of companies were actually DEFENSIVE and held up better in down markets. They were mostly consumer conglomerates owned by pension funds and big banks and others all through society. They were considered safe and secure.

    NOW the BIG CAP monster stocks are different. They are RISKY. Most pay little to no dividend. They rarely split their stock. They are owned.....mostly...... by small groups of Billionaires. Even though many of them have been around for 15, 20, 30 years or more they are STILL risky business models.

    This is why once in a while I talk about Amazon and their total return. We are in an era when you can not just fall in love with a company and use it as your retirement income. In the old days....you could own a stock like Phillip Morris and rake in a good retirement income with the dividend. You could count on those old school companies. Now......if count on the BIG CAP monsters......you better be aware and on top of them all the time.
     
    #9518 WXYZ, Feb 3, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2022
    Marvan likes this.
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL....that was a BRUTAL day. We ended down big time and it seems that the weakness got worse as the day progressed. I had a single position that was in the green....Costco. I got my ass kicked by the SP500 by 1.16%......not that the SP500 did well today....it got its ass kicked too.

    AND.....I did not even own any of the stocks that got kicked in the teeth today or earlier in past week or two. All my companies have put up STERLING earnings. But never mind.....they got dragged down with the markets anyway. The life of a long term investor over the short term.

    I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  20. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    You’re gonna see a shit ton of volatility this year. Last year it was with memes and crypto taking a toll on the market… this year it’s the big guys turn… I don’t buy into these 20-25% drops… this is all big hedge/investors taking their shorts into places where they feel more secure. If Netflix didn’t teach you that last week, fb will today.. for a company on that caliber to drop so significantly in one session, there has to be a better reason other than “weak guidance”…. That’s what I said last week with Netflix and sure enough, it bounced back (although not recovered). The only inflation I see here is artificially man made.
    I’ll probably go and add more to my position tomorrow at the open
     

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