The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    they throw us a small bone once in a while, but nothing like @duckleberry_fin gets. but, hey, we are essentially government healthcare as all plans are medicare and medicaid products.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    If anyone has any suggested books on investing or investing podcasts or other investing resources for.....TravelWC.....please post your favorites.

    I will say one thing.....even though it is not necessary. There is no need to agree with me if you want to post here. Most of the stuff on this thread is simply OPINION. By its very nature opinion is simply personal to the person that is posting. Accordingly I have no urge to argue opinion with others. Why would I....your opinion is your opinion.....and is not a threat to me. So feel free to post what you think on any investing or other topic.....whether you agree with me or not.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Ok Emmett......so now we know that we have a Medicare and Medicaid EXPERT on here. Good to know for future discussion on these topics.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am off to do some important work.....vacuuming the house.
     
  5. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    scoring music at the same time? :banana:
     
  6. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    don't have any specific book recommendations but if you have a local public library go there and grab a few off the shelf. that's what i do. supporting the public library is the one tax i'm really happy to pay.
     
    TravelWC likes this.
  7. weight333

    weight333 New Member

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    I've been gradually building a Phillip Morris position over the past 1.5 years. I love the juicy dividend but did not expect this kind of fast appreciation. When I first started buying, share price was approx. $75. Perhaps all the added stress has played out well for their business?

    Philip Morris Stock Rises After Earnings Beat. It May Be Protected Against Inflation.

    Philip Morris PM+2.63% International beat earnings and revenue expectations in the fourth quarter as heated tobacco sales surged and cigarette volumes returned to growth.

    The tobacco giant’s stock rose 1.6% in early trading, defying the wider market’s fall after inflation data
    was released. The company offered a bullish full-year outlook, coming in comfortably ahead of Wall Street’s expectations.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/ph...ates-cigarette-sales-held-up-well-51644495789
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    yeah.....Phillip Morris.....my mom owned it for decades before the split of it and Altria. After the company split up....she continued to hold both Altria and Phillip Morris. It was a Dividend monster. It also got some really nice appreciation. Back than in the later years before the spin off you had to be willing to own it in spite of the tobacco litigation......but that is pretty much over now.
     
    #9628 WXYZ, Feb 11, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2022
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So.....the government spooked the markets again today.....Thanks guys.

    Stocks slide and oil surges on renewed fears of Russia invasion of Ukraine

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/11/investing/dow-stock-market-today-russia-ukraine/index.html

    Stocks fell sharply Friday after the White House said Americans should leave Ukraine "immediately" due to worries about an imminent invasion by Russia.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 500 points, or 1.4%, after the Biden administration said that it would be ready to respond if Russia did invade. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 1.9% and 2.7% respectively.

    "The Russia-Ukraine tensions have hovered over already shaky investor sentiment. Investors have been counting on a diplomatic resolution, but recent developments indicate this may be wishful thinking and therefore, not fully priced into the markets," said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management, in a report.

    Lynch said it's "conceivable" that the rising tensions could lead to another market correction — a pullback of 10% from the highs — "as investors sell first and ask questions later."

    All three indexes are now lower for the week, ending a two-week winning streak for the market. The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, which look at seven measures of market sentiment, moved closer to Extreme Fear levels.

    "Stock traders quickly hit the 'sell button' after reports that the US expects Russia to move forward with invading Ukraine," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst with OANDA, in a report Friday. "A period of calm was somewhat expected regarding the Ukraine situation but that does not seem to be the case anymore."

    A top exchange-traded fund of Russian stocks (RSX) plunged more than 6%. Oil prices spiked about 4%, and top energy stocks such as Baker Hughes (BKR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Phillips 66 (PSX) were market leaders.

    Analysts have warned that a conflict in Ukraine could threaten energy supplies, including through potential sanctions. Russia is the world's No. 2 producer of both oil and natural gas.

    Oil could "easily" hit $120 a barrel if there are "any disruptions" to oil flows from Russia and possibly go as high as $150, JPMorgan analysts said earlier this week.

    The peak for Brent crude is $147.50, set in July 2008. Any further spike in energy prices would add to the already high levels of inflation that are pinching US consumers.

    The White House indicated that Russia could launch air strikes before the Winter Olympics in Beijing end later this month and warned Americans to leave Ukraine.

    Gold prices also rose Friday. The yellow metal often rallies during times of geopolitical turmoil since it is perceived to be a safe haven commodity. Bitcoin (XBT), which some crypto bulls have argued is like digital gold, fell however.

    Comerica's Lynch noted that "should an invasion occur... commodity prices may also accelerate, led by oil and gold."
    Defense stocks rallied, possibly due to expectations of more demand for military spending if there is a conflict. Northrop Grumman (NOC), L3Harris (LHX) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) were among the winners in the S&P 500."

    MY COMMENT

    Our government oil and energy policy right now is one BIG disaster.....like a lot of things. The drop today is compliments of the government and the CHICKEN-SH$T's on wall street. They sell and run for the hills like lemmings every time there is the slightest hint of anything happening. Typical.

    In the end and especially over the medium to long term....it is not going to matter to us in the slightest if Russia invades and/or takes over Ukraine. I would be more worried right now about Iran being on a clear and unstoppable path to having one or more nuclear bombs over the next 6-12 months.....if I wanted to worry about some foreign policy disaster as an investor.

    This event if it happens is what you would call a.....little....black swan. They happen once in a while. Usually they end up being meaningless after the event dies out. As an investor you can follow wall street and PANIC......or just hold through it....which is my typical course of action as a long term investor.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is a POSITIVE alternative for investors....that have a horizan longer than a few hours.

    A bullish stock market story is quietly unfolding

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-bullish-stock-market-story-is-quietly-unfolding-172325011.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Since the beginning of the year, business news has been riddled with stories about historic market volatility, decades-high inflation rates, and an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve.

    Meanwhile, it’s earnings season. And corporate America has been announcing a mix of good and bad news with its quarterly financial results.

    Amid this backdrop, a bullish story has been emerging: Expectations for earnings growth are being revised up.

    Since the beginning of the earnings season, 4Q21 EPS has been revised up 4.3% to $53.48 (+26% y/y) and 2022 EPS has been revised up 0.6% at $224.90 (+8% y/y),” JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote on Thursday. “Looking to the following year, 2023 EPS has been revised up 0.7% since the beginning of the earnings season to $247.54 (+10% y/y).”

    [​IMG]
    Source: JPMorgan
    This may be a surprising development considering labor shortages, supply chain woes, and other pandemic-related disruptions have led to higher costs, which have been on display in the eye-popping producer and consumer price index reports.

    [​IMG]
    However, corporations have been able to offset these rising costs through operating efficiencies, operating leverage, and price hikes. It’s why profit margins have been high, and it’s why analysts expect profit margins to remain high in the quarters to come.

    It’s definitely the case that consumers and businesses aren’t thrilled to be having to pay up for their goods and services. But for now, they have the capacity to pay.

    Just this week, Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), and Chipotle (CMG) were among companies that said consumers were paying for recently implemented price increases.

    The good news is all of this inflation may soon cool off with the Federal Reserve signaling its willingness to take aggressive action to contain inflation. Indeed, BofA strategist Savita Subramanian wrote on Monday that the Fed’s efforts to fight inflation represented a “net positive” for corporate earnings.

    There’s no question that the economy is confronting a lot of crosscurrents. But even amid the uncertainty, there is a lot of evidence that shows prospects are more bullish than bearish."

    MY COMMENT

    The FEAR MONGERING is back. BUT....as usual over the medium to long term it will all end up being a lot of HOT AIR.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I got kicked in the teeth today by the IRRATIONAL markets and the SP500. I was total RED today over all positions. My losses in individual stocks ranged from (-1.35%) to (-7.26%). I got beat by the SP500 by 1.16%. Reminds me of last year around April/May when I was way behind the SP500 for the year.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Way to go RUSSELL......a positive week.

    DOW year to date (-4.40%)
    DOW for the week (-1.00%)

    SP500 year to date (-7.29%)
    SP500 for the week (-1.82%)

    NASDAQ 100 year to date (-12.66%)
    NASDAQ 100 for the week (-3.00%)

    NASDAQ year to date (-11.85%)
    NASDAQ for the week (-2.18%)

    RUSSELL year to date (-9.58%)
    RUSSELL for the week +1.39%

    A dismal end to the week for reasons that are totally disconnected from the markets and earnings.......so....in the end who cares.

    Here is a question....has the SP500 ever been positive year to date in 2022? I have not looked....but....I dont think so. If that is the fact.....than we are now six weeks into the year without the SP500 ever being positive for the year to date. Not that this means anything......I just find it interesting.
     
  13. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Shitty past couple of months really… nothings been going as planned since December
    There’s zero motivation to climb back up at this point..
    No, nothing terrible will come out of this inflation, no war with Russia, china has ALWAYS been the number one threat for our economy and now the world quite frankly. so let’s all sit here and wait till everything gets back to normal in 4-6 months
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Since the weekend has officially started.....TGIF. I thought this little "art" story was funny.

    Russian gallery says security guard doodled eyes on avant-garde painting

    https://www.oregonlive.com/nation/2...ard-doodled-eyes-on-avant-garde-painting.html


    [​IMG]

    MOSCOW — A Russian gallery says one of its security guards has vandalized an avant-garde painting on loan from the country’s top art repository by drawing eyes on the picture’s deliberately featureless faces. It said the damage can be repaired.

    The Yeltsin Center in Yekaterinburg said the vandalism of the painting “Three Figures” by Anna Leporskaya occurred Dec. 7. It said the suspected culprit worked for a private company providing security at the gallery.

    The painting, dating from the 1930s, shows three torsos and heads with hair but no facial features; the vandal drew eyes on two of them with a ballpoint pen. The Yeltsin Center said the painting has been sent for restoration to the State Tretyakov Gallery in Moscow, which owns it.

    The Russian news site RBK said a criminal case has been opened on charges that carry a sentence of up to three months in prison. The picture had been reportedly insured for 74.9 million rubles (roughly $1 million).

    Leporskaya, who lived from 1900-1982, was a student of Kazimir Malevich, a seminal Russian abstract artist best known for his 1915 work “Black Square.”"

    MY COMMENT

    The picture above is distorted but you get the idea. I think the guy....actually.....has a future in the art world.
     
    #9634 WXYZ, Feb 11, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2022
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of ART...this is how I see the past couple of market months.

    [​IMG]
     
    zukodany and Value543 like this.
  16. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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  17. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Up 1.49% for the week and down 2.33% for the year. EQT jumping 5.77% today was huge for me. s&p is down 7.88% ytd so I 'm doing very well.

    I am 42.2% EQT, 56.8% VOO, 1% cash.
     
  18. PatelFSU

    PatelFSU New Member

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    Don’t want to jinx anything for next week, but I beat the S&P all five days this week. I call that a win even though the portfolio is red for the week.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well done you two....take any victory you can get and move forward.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    LOL.....in spite of whatever the markets want to give us or take from us short term.....I have really isolated my life and finances from the markets. So the future is......BRIGHT......since for me the future is ALWAYS bright somewhere out there. I just have to hold long enough to get there. So.....

    I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
    #9640 WXYZ, Feb 11, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2022
    Jwalker likes this.

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