This data is SO baked in it is ridiculous. In addition....consumers dont care at all. Key inflation gauge hit 6.1% in January, highest since 1982 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/key-inflation-gauge-hit-6-133927745.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON (AP) — An inflation gauge that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve jumped 6.1% in January compared with a year ago, the latest evidence that Americans are enduring sharp price increases that will likely worsen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The figure reported Friday by the Commerce Department was the largest year-over-year rise since 1982. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation increased 5.2% in January from a year earlier. Robust consumer spending has combined with widespread product and worker shortages to create the highest inflation in four decades — a heavy burden for U.S. households, especially lower-income families faced with elevated costs for food, fuel and rent. At the same time, consumers as a whole largely shrugged off the higher prices last month and boosted their spending 2.1% from December to January, Friday's report said, an encouraging sign for the economy and the job market. That was a sharp improvement from December, when spending fell. Americans across the income scale have been receiving pay raises and have amassed more savings than they had before the pandemic struck two years ago. That expanded pool of savings provides fuel for future spending. Inflation, though, is expected to remain high and perhaps accelerate in the coming months, especially with Russia's invasion likely disrupting oil and gas exports. The costs of other commodities that are produced in Ukraine, such as wheat and aluminum, are rising, too. President Joe Biden said Thursday that he would do “everything I can” to keep gas prices in check. Biden did not spell out details, though he mentioned the possibility of releasing more oil from the nation’s strategic reserves. He also warned that oil and gas companies “should not exploit this moment” by raising prices at the pump. Russia’s invasion and the likely resulting rise in inflation have increased pressure on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to raise interest rates several times this year beginning in March. The Fed’s delicate task — to raise rates enough to restrain inflation, without going so far as to tip the economy into recession — has now become more difficult. Fed officials are acknowledging that the invasion of Ukraine could alter the central bank’s plans for rate hikes. So far, though, the policymakers haven’t offered specific thoughts about their plans. Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said Thursday that she supported a series of rate hikes beginning in March. But she said the Fed should remain flexible: Faster rate hikes might be needed, she said, if inflation hasn’t begun to fade by mid-year, or more gradual increases if inflation is slowing. “The implications of the unfolding situation in Ukraine for the medium-run economic outlook in the U.S. will also be a consideration,” she said. Other Fed officials have offered similar remarks this week. January’s data show inflation was already picking up before the invasion. From December to January, prices rose 0.6%, up from 0.5% in the previous month. There are early indications that consumer spending has stayed healthy, boosted by the rapid fading of the omicron wave of the coronavirus. JPMorgan Chase said that spending on its credit cards for airline tickets, hotel rooms, and restaurant meals rose in the first half of this month. The JPMorgan Chase Institute also recently released data showing that cash balances remain elevated among their customers, including those with lower incomes. Bank account balances for Americans with less than $26,000 in income were 65% higher at the end of last year than they were two years before. Americans’ paychecks are rising steadily. Average hourly earnings rose 5.7% in January compared with a year ago. Unless companies can offset their higher labor costs with greater efficiencies, most of them will likely charge their customers more. This would send inflation higher. The combination of higher pay and enhanced savings suggests that Americans may be able to keep spending at a solid pace in the coming months, thereby sustaining the economy’s inflationary pressures."" MY COMMENT The constant comparison to the 1980's EXTREME inflation is simply a JOKE on investors and the public. the current situation is NOTHING like the 1970's and 1980's. What we are seeing now would have been considered a GREAT VICTORY back than. If you did not live through it.....you have no idea how bad it was. The economy is STILL strong....so far. Consumers are spending strongly. The inflation we are seeing is supply driven and WILL fall back over the next year. The invasion is nearly over. There are NO meaningful sanctions as the EU and even the USA continue to buy and use Russian energy.......so......NEVERMIND.
My apologies in advance to any META shareholders on here. BUT....I just cant help myself. I saw an article on the Zuckerberg Meta demonstration a day or so ago. What a ridiculous product they put out for that demo. If this crude cartoon demo is the best they can do.....I would immediately sell all shares if I was a shareholder. Of course....I am NOT and do not anticipate ever owning this company. I know, I know...they were demonstrating the voice ability........come on man......what a poor example of the......"future" of the world. https://techcrunch.com/2022/02/23/m...building-virtual-worlds-using-voice-commands/ "Mark Zuckerberg demos a tool for building virtual worlds using voice commands Aisha Malik@aiishamalik1 / 4:54 PM CST•February 23, 2022 Image Credits: Meta Image Credits: Meta Looks like I am not the only one that was UNDERWHELMED. And here’s Mark Zuckerberg with his sad, boring little AI island https://www.dazeddigital.com/scienc...pia-proves-the-metaverse-has-an-image-problem MY COMMENT This guy is NOT........the visionary leader that I want in ANY company. Poor FB is having a really bad time lately. After seeing this demo I just CANT WAIT to be able to live in own virtual world. If behavior on message boards and behavior on social media sites.....constant trolling, bickering, fighting, arguing, anonymous brutal bullying behavior, etc, etc, etc, are a harbinger of the future Metaverse.....count me out. It will all be JR HIGH on steroids.
So woke up this morning to a serious of fraudulent charges on my card, had to close that card and have a new one sent. Wonder if all this has anything to do with all the cyber talks of late, or just a random incident. Never had that happen to me in the past for the record
Here is the SP500 for the past 3 days....the invasion: Here is the SP500 for the past 5 days the invasion and immediate lead-up. MY COMMENT So far......looks like a non-event. I guess ALL the financial and other media fear mongering of this event ended up as........ NOTHING. This is absolutely typical. I am still pulling for Ukraine's forces to put up more resistance than expected and make Putin pay a price. Someone needs to.....The EU and the USA are certainly not going to. Putin does need to be careful....with more demonstrations in his country than he expected......and......if there is more Russian deaths and more resistance than anticipated......he could come out of this weaker than he went in........in his own country.
AND....today so far in the markets. Stock market news live updates: Stocks jump as investors eye strong data, Russia's attacks in Ukraine https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-february-25-2022-231258803.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks extended gains Friday as traders eyed the latest developments in Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the world's response. The S&P 500 advanced more than 1.6%, rising further after a 1.5% jump on Thursday. The Dow and Nasdaq also built on Thursday's gains to add more than 1% intraday on Friday. The move came after new economic data showed U.S. personal spending rose more than expected in January, even accounting for a surge in inflation. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a closely watched gauge of inflation, soared by 6.1%, or the fastest rate in 40 years. Stocks moved higher even against the backdrop of Russia's military attack of Ukraine and Western nation's sanctions on Russia. Though equities have been sliding and energy commodity prices soaring in recent sessions as investors considered the financial market impacts of the conflict, markets at least temporarily stabilized in absence of further evidence of U.S. economic damage. "The market is going to overreact to good news and bad. The news [Thursday] morning was sell, sell, sell," Allan Boomer, Momentum Advisors chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday. "And now we analyzed the news ... I think what the market has decided is that this Ukraine-Russia [situation] is a tragedy, [but] it's not necessarily a global event that's going to cause us to fall into a deep recession." "I think the biggest factor right now is the Fed," he added. "And if anything, this Russian event may make the Fed a bit less hawkish." And indeed, market participants have now priced in a much lower probability that Federal Reserve officials will front-load their interest rate hiking cycle and raise rates by 50 basis points at the end of their March meeting. The last time the Fed raised rates by more than 25 basis points in one meeting was in 2000. While such a move would serve as an aggressive shift by the Fed to begin actively reining in inflation, it could also further roil financial markets that have already endured increased volatility this year and that have now also been spooked by the specter of further international conflict. "This has been the second worst start to the year for U.S. equities since 2000. Yet, these moves are not solely (or even mostly) driven by the Russia/Ukraine tensions," Seema Shah, Sharing Principal Global Investors chief strategist, wrote in an email. "Equity declines began in January and were, at least initially, driven by inflation concerns and expectations for significantly sharper central bank tightening." "Energy prices had been rising steadily throughout the pandemic recovery and in response to lower-than-expected OPEC+ production. Concerns around Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction caused credit spreads to start to gap out in early January," she added. "The Russia/Ukraine situation is certainly significant—but it has simply compounded these already challenging market conditions." Other strategists also suggested that U.S. stocks would trade primarily based on the monetary policy and earnings implications of any impacts of the latest geopolitical tensions. "The U.S. economy has pretty low exposure directly to Ukraine and the situation with Russia. However, the important thing here is, how does it impact inflation expectations? And that's really what we're keeping an eye on," Anna S. Han, Wells Fargo Securities equity strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday. "As inflation becomes a variable for corporates, the potential for it to eat away at earnings, or a potential for it to really steer the Fed to accelerate or decelerate that rate hike cycle — that's what we're looking at." 1:12 p.m. ET: Ford to pause F-150 production due to chip shortage Ford (F) said on Friday that it would pause production of its top-selling F-150 pick-up trucks at its Kansas City factory due to the ongoing chip shortage. The automaker is one of many to suspend or pull back on production due to supply chain-related disruptions. In September, General Motors cut production at a number of North American assembly plants due to chip shortages. Earlier this month, Ford had said it expected sales to drop by the single to low-double-digits due to semiconductor shortages. 11:50 a.m. ET: Stocks head for back-to-back day of strong gains, Dow adds 600+ points, or 1.8% The three major stock indexes soared Friday midday, looking past geopolitical tensions and instead focusing on a bevy of solid economic data. The S&P 500 jumped by 1.8%, with the financials, healthcare and materials sectors leading the way higher. The Dow added more than 600 points, or nearly 2% as Johnson & Johnson, Merck and Amgen outperformed. The Nasdaq added 1.2%. The risk-on mood extended to Bitcoin, which jumped more than 9% to trade above $39,000. Treasury yields rose slightly, and the benchmark 10-year yield added 0.7 basis points to hover around 1.98%. 10:09 a.m. ET: Pending home sales unexpectedly sink by the most since Feb. 2021 in January Pending home sales posted the largest decline in nearly one year at the start of 2022, with rising interest rates and tight inventory levels weighing on housing market activity. Homes under contract to be sold declined by 5.7% in January compared to December and fell by 9.5% compared to the same month in 2021, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Friday. The monthly dip was the largest since February 2021, and represented a third straight monthly decline." MY COMMENT Not much in the above that has not been already mentioned and commented on in this thread. Pending home sales sink......DUH.....there is no inventory and nothing for buyers to buy. The very strong market for houses continues.
This is what really matters.....EARNINGS. Corporate America's 2021 profits were higher than ever https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corporate-profits-surge-2021-184717178.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Corporate America’s profit margins started strong and stayed high all throughout 2021. That's according to financial data company FactSet. According to the firm, the second quarter of 2021 saw a 13.1% profit margin among the companies of the S&P 500. The 4th quarter showed a slight dip but a still-elevated level of 12.4%. The numbers stretch 54 quarters — to the middle of 2008 — and reveal that the 4 best quarters for corporate profits in recent history all happened last year. This data could provide ammunition for progressive Democrats and other corporate critics who have been charging for months that businesses largely responded to the pandemic and recent surge in inflation with "price gouging." Corporations are utilizing “their ability to ‘drive price’ and not leave any pricing on the table,” says Lindsay Owens, the executive director of the left-leaning group Groundwork Collaborative. Owens and her colleagues embarked on a project to monitor corporate earnings calls since last summer. Early on, she says, CEOs “were a little surprised that consumers were forking over money at these higher price points.” But now she says the view of business leaders is we are "capitalizing on this phenomenon, we're exploiting it and we're pressing it to the hilt and we're going to take it until we touch the stove.” Slightly different historical measures of corporate profits finds profit-levels in the last decade have been well above historical averages, meaning 2021 was likely the best year for corporate profits since World War II or longer. ‘A very lucrative space’ The issue of growing corporate profit margins has attracted scrutiny from Democratic figures like Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Earlier this month, Congress held a hearing focused on "pandemic profiteers" and, in a recent Yahoo Finance interview, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attributed recent price hikes not to inflation but to just "straight price gouging by corporations." President Joe Biden and his aides have highlighted specific instances of price hikes, focusing on industries like meatpackers, energy firms, and companies involved in the supply chain. They have focused on corporate consolidation in these industries as a key driver of higher prices. Owens agrees that consolidation plays a role and adds that consumer expectations contribute, as well. There's "a very lucrative space between passing on input costs, which consumers understand and know need to happen in this moment, and the average consumer's understanding of what those in input costs are," she says. The group is also releasing a new survey this week of 1,549 likely voters from Groundwork Collaborative and Data for Progress that finds 63% of respondents believe large corporations are "taking advantage of the pandemic to raise prices unfairly and increase profits." Even 51% of Republicans agreed with that sentiment. ‘Notably better than pre-pandemic margins’ The strong profit margins in 2021 have translated into a strong earnings season so far in 2022. LPL equity recently has found that resilient profit margins have helped companies mostly beat earning forecasts with strong earnings throughout the year. The LPL researchers attributed the strong returns for investors to “a combination of surprising revenue strength and resilient profit margins.” LPL Financial's research indicates S&P 500 earnings per share are tracking to a 31% year-over-year increase, about 10 percentage points above the consensus estimate when earnings season began. Nicholas Colas, the co-founder of DataTrek Research, added in a recent report to investors that profit margins in Q4 2021 not only exceeded both Q4 2020 but also were “notably better than pre-pandemic margins, which averaged 10-11%.” Companies themselves have often noted that they have enjoyed the power to raise prices, and maintain or grow their profits margins, because consumers are willing to pay. "We’ve never had resistance when we raise prices," Chipotle (CMG) CFO Jack Hartung recently told Yahoo Finance. But, he added, “We'd like to have that as more of our last resort, we'd like to find efficiencies, we'd like to find leverage in our margins as we grow sales.” Other businesses, especially smaller ones, have not enjoyed the same pricing power. The latest NFIB small business survey finds small businesses becoming less optimistic in recent years amid declining earnings. The official government data on corporate profits from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to be released at the end of March." MY COMMENT The ENTIRE middle section of this article....quoting the "usual suspects" bitching about corporate profits.....is just a SHAME. SHAME on the writer for slanting this article in this way. We are a free market capitalistic country....at least for a while longer. The outstanding corporate numbers over the past year are a good thing. This is GREAT NEWS for the average AMERICAN who no longer has a pension and is reliant on a 401K that is probably invested in stocks and funds. The MORONS critical of business are going to SEVERELY hurt the average person in their retirement....if they ever get their way. At least the initial premise of the article and the data is.....GOOD NEWS for everyone. Remember back about 3-4 quarters ago? All the people claiming that the quarterly numbers were going to go down? Where are they all now?
I have to quit watching the markets......NOW......I dont want to screw up the close. What a crazy week. A perfect example of the ridiculous idea that someone can predict or anticipate the short term markets. This is exactly why I simply stay fully invested ALL the time. I want to capture all the crazy, insane, unanticipated gains......which according to the data happen more often than the losses. Over the longer term the market direction is always positive.
Alright.....another really good day for the markets and in my accounts. Every position was in the green today....it was nice to make some decent money. I did get beat by the SP500 by 0.68%....but on a day like this who cares.
Considering how this week started and the world events of the past couple of days.....the markets kicked ass this week. DOW year to date (-6.27%) DOW for the week (-0.06%) SP500 year to date (-8.00%) SP500 for the week +0.82% NASDAQ 100 year to date (-13.06%) NASDAQ 100 for the week +1.28% NASDAQ year to date (-12.47%) NASDAQ for the week +1.08% RUSSELL year to date (-9.10%) RUSSELL for the week +1.57% I guess the correction of the SP500 that started TWO DAYS AGO.....is now over. At least for a little while...hopefully for the year. TGIF
The only bad thing for me this week was that I lost TWO shows to the weather. Probably 95% of the shows that we do are outside and that makes it tough in the winter and weather. Two weather cancellations in the past three days.
The majority of the sources that I am seeing now are anticipating a 0.25% rate hike in March. The invasion has held the increase down. I think that is the best way to start out the increases regardless of Ukraine. Slow and steady is best for the rate increases. Fed’s Initial Rate Hike in March Now Seen at Quarter-Point Amid Russia Attacks https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9be77f5e-5841-344b-b22e-eefb193b6f8d/fed’s-initial-rate-hike-in.html
Looks like you just can not trust the Chinese. BUMMER for Russia. Chinese banks restrict lending to Russia, dealing blow to Moscow Beijing draws line on support for Moscow after invasion of Ukraine https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/china-restrict-financing-russia-ukraina-invasion (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Two Chinese state-owned banks will restrict financing for Russian commodity purchases, suggesting there are limits to Beijing's support for Moscow as the Kremlin confronts severe economic sanctions over its attack of Ukraine. Offshore units of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China have stopped issuing U.S. dollar-denominated letters of credit for purchases of physical Russian commodities ready for export, while the Bank of China has also limited funding, according to Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter. Yuan-denominated letters of credit are still available for some clients, pending approval from senior executives. The move comes after Russia launched a wide-scale invasion into Ukraine, shattering three decades of peace in Europe and eliciting a slew of condemnations and financial penalties from the U.S., European Union and other nations. It was a surprising twist and points to potential cracks showing in the relationship between Moscow and Beijing. The two countries are frequently geopolitical allies who have united in the past against the U.S.; they have formed increasingly close bonds over recent years, with Russia a key supplier of energy to China. At the same time, China's biggest banks hold billions of Russian assets. Beijing has also provided Moscow with tens of billions in funding over the years. But Beijing ultimately has closer economic ties to Western nations, who are much bigger export customers for China, major sources of technology and investment, and also control China's access to the international dollar system. China has pledged to maintain normal trade with both Russia and Ukraine, despite the latest restrictions from two of its largest state-owned banks. The leaders of the two nations – Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia – spoke on Friday, during which Xi reportedly urged Putin to solve the crisis with negotiations. "The situation in eastern Ukraine has undergone rapid changes, drawing great attention from the international community. China’s position would be based on the right and wrong in relation to the Ukraine issue itself," Xi told Putin on Friday, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported. "China supports Russia and Ukraine in resolving the issue through negotiation."" MY COMMENT I guess there is no......brotherhood......of brutal dictators. China is going to play all parties and sides of this issue to try to weaken Putin and Russia and benefit themselves.
I slightly beat the s&P so a good day today. Am up 1% for the week and I'm down 2.99% ytd. s&P is down 8.59% for the year so I'm quite a bit ahead.
For anyone that lives in a "normal" real estate market....here is what is going on in the many areas of the country that are HOT. Look at the video in this article....it is amazing. Here we have perhaps 100 people and a HUGE line of cars waiting to try to see a house for sale. Multiply that by the entire day......not just the few minutes that this video was shot. A North Carolina house was swarmed with interested shoppers just hours after hitting the market for $260,000 https://www.businessinsider.com/nor...swarmed-with-interested-shoppers-video-2022-2 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) Monique Edwards A real-estate agent's Facebook video shows swarms of people arriving to look at a $260,000 home. "People are so desperate for a home under a particular price point," the agent said. A wave of newly arriving buyers is driving prices out of reach for local incomes, she added. To get a vivid picture of the housing-inventory situation facing many parts of the US, look no further than a recent Facebook post from a real-estate agent in Raleigh, North Carolina. Shortly after 5 p.m. on Tuesday, Monique Edwards was wrapping up a showing with a client at 4509 Lafferty Court when she paused to make a video showing the lines of cars and people arriving to look at the newly listed home. "Someone stopped me, and they wanted to know what was going on in the neighborhood, and I just told them the truth. I said, 'We're having a housing crisis,'" Edwards says in the video. While the property itself was reasonably attractive, Edwards said the frenzy was a response to the comparably affordable price in an area where the median home value recently hit $400,000. That's a bit higher than the national median price, which ticked up to a record high of $365,000 in January — a rising price increasingly out of reach for the average US worker. "This is a home that is priced under $300,000 here in the Raleigh area, and as you can see, there are just cars upon cars upon cars — and there are a ton of people that are trying to see this home," she says in the video. "People are so desperate for a home under a particular price point because people don't make as much money," she adds. The Facebook video captured more than 6,400 reactions, 7,000 comments, and 16,000 shares and went viral on other platforms, like Reddit, but Edwards told Insider the scene was "more common than you think." "It's an open secret. I just decided to tell it," she said. The immediate neighborhood surrounding the Lafferty Court house is fairly working class, Edwards said, but a wave of newly arriving buyers is driving prices out of reach for local incomes. Meanwhile, homes at higher price points tend to have less competition. Less than 24 hours after posting her video, Edwards told Insider she received a notification that the listing was under contract, which concluded a stark lesson for her client about the challenges of buying a home in 2022. Video Link Below <iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https://www.facebook.com/100005846115750/videos/275830377965314/&show_text=0&width=560" width="560" height="315" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowFullScreen="true"></iframe> MY COMMENT Now that is a HOT new listing!!!!!!!!!!
I assume Schwab has been inundated with concerned customers. I got this email today from them: "Schwab's perspective on markets and current events. When Russia announced it was invading Ukraine, major stock indexes—already shaky due to inflation and geopolitical worries—grappled with a fresh round of volatility. Our experts have been paying close attention and creating timely analysis to help you understand the impact of recent news on your investments. You can go to schwab.com/insights to read our experts’ latest commentary, or watch live updates from the TD Ameritrade Network. It’s natural to feel unsettled right now—these are uncertain times. But history has shown us repeatedly that, as investors, the best action we can take during periods of volatility is to avoid being reactive and to focus on the long term. If you have any questions or want to discuss your unique situation, you can contact your Schwab Financial Consultant, or call 800-435-4000 to reach an investment professional 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. We’re always here to help." MY COMMENT Looks like they are doing some reaching out to customers for hand-holding. The link to their insights takes you to articles about Ukraine, interest rate hike cycles, and what a correction means. They are trying to stand by their customers. Good for them.
Hey guys, I haven’t posted on here in a while but just want to give you guys an update because my journey in investing began because of this thread. I started investing in the Fall of 2020 and up to this date I invested 23k so far mostly in ETF’s and technology stocks such as apple, Tesla, and AMD. I just landed a new job making 100k a year as a truck driver and I just want a few opinions on what should I do next. I have several plans. I recently moved back in with my parents because my lease was up and couldn’t find a good spot that will benefit me, I live in NY. One plan that I have is to stay with my parents for one year and save most of my money. I’ll only need about 15k at most to cover bills for a year. With all the money I would save I want to build a passive income. I wanted to get into real estate but the house market is high right now, my next idea is to purchase a truck and start my own trucking business and with the cash flow I’ll get in my trucking business I can get into real estate after. Just want to know if it’s worth it getting into real estate right now or wait a couple years and see how the economy goes moving forward?
My view......you are a truck driver....you know all about the truck driving business from the standpoint of a driver. That gives you a huge leg up in starting your own trucking business. It it was me I would buy a truck and have the ultimate goal of turning that first truck into a bunch more trucks. I would go into the real estate.....using some of the money I make in my trucking business....as I become more and more successful in that business. Thats what I would do.
For anyone that is interested in reading Warren Buffets annual letter that was released yesterday.....here it is. https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2022/02/26/2021ltr.pdf
OK.....we are open for the week.....where we end the day and the week....nobody knows. The open is as you would expect with the extremely short term events that are going on. All in all we have been doing better than anyone expected post invasion. One thing we have learned is that the Russian military is much more incompetent than we thought. We have also seen that their economy is ALSO worse than we thought. in other words......outside of their insanity.......we dont have much to worry about from them as a world power. Of course.....we have known......or should have known all along.....that it is CHINA that is the great threat to the USA and the world.
