The Long Term Investor

Actually....we do share much humor. Much of what I post here....while honest and my opinion....is posted in a fashion to try to have some fun. Some times that backfires when people think I am being extreme when I am just trying to make a point with a little bit of humor.

NOW.....all the young, or new, investors on here. For ALL that have a time horizon of at least 15 years till retirement. ALL is NOT NEGATIVE with what is going on. This sort of a BIG market drop is a HUGE BUYING OPPORTUNITY. I am NOT a fan of dollar cost averaging. BUT....in this situation, if I was young and/or had at least 15 years to retirement......enough time to be a long term investor.....I would be piling money into my sorts of stocks.....AMERICAN, BIG CAP, DIVIDEND, ICONIC PRODUCT, GREAT MANAGEMENT, WORLD WIDE DOMINANT.....type companies. One way I could do this is by piling money into the SP500 every month. As much as I could REASONABLY afford.

Money going in over the course of this market drop will grow EXPONENTIALLY when the market recovers. It will be like getting an extra 2, 3, 4, or more years of gains......ALL in a very short time when the markets come back. The markets ALWAYS come back. MY "GUESS" is that we are looking at a potential 6-12 month market downturn. Perhaps even LESS.

AND....I think the business disruption will have a BIG POSITIVE SIDE once this little panic and scare is over. It will be like a forest fire that clears all the brush and dead wood out of the forest and allows the forest to thrive when it comes back after the fire. I believe that many.....probably most..... companies will come back stronger than ever.

The KEY for anyone lucky enough to have time on their side is LONG TERM INVESTING.

 

I am HOPEFUL we will start to see markets settle into this.....new normal......over the next month or so. We will start to see earnings for the first quarter over that time. We will also start to get many reports of KEY economic data. At the moment EVERYTHING is just speculation. As we start to get numbers.........good or bad........the POSITIVE is that we will once again begin to deal with REALITY rather than......the unknown. The markets will begin to ADAPT and DISCOUNT what is going on in the present once more is known. We need to get some of this stuff behind us in order for the markets to MOVE FORWARD. We need to get to where some of the negative is already BAKED IN as old news. NOW...moving forward may not mean gains. I expect that we will have some potential for pretty good losses ahead of us. AND....this whole situation will probably take 6-12 months to get to........the beginning of the end. SO......

Huge spike in Google searches for ‘unemployment benefits’ give a stark picture of economic carnage to come

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...conomy-from-the-coronavirus-crisis-2020-03-18

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Hundreds of thousands or even millions of people losing their jobs? Unemployment spiking to Great Recession levels or higher? The mounting damage to the economy from the coronavirus is about to become starkly visible.

States around the country are reporting a massive surge in the number of people applying for jobless benefits. In just the past week, the number of searches on Google for unemployment benefits has also skyrocketed.

The incoming evidence suggests initial jobless claims could soon triple from the low 200,000s. Neil Dutta, head of macroeconomics at Renaissance Research, calculates that new jobless clams could climb to as high as 650,000 in the next few weeks based on the spike in Google searches.

If so, new claims could match the highest levels of the Great Recession. New jobless claims peaked at 655,000 in March 2009.

New claims and a slew of other economic reports over the next several weeks will start to provide a fuller picture of the coronavirus crisis, starting with Thursday’s update on how many Americans sought unemployment benefits in mid-March.

The following week will reveal how Americans have reacted to the unprecedented disruptions in their lives though the March reports on consumer confidence and consumer sentiment.

Then in early April comes the big one: The monthly employment report.

It’s possible the U.S. could post the first decline in jobs since 2010 and break a string of 113 straight months of increases. But a negative reading is more likely in April than in March. The government’s survey for March was mostly completed before in the early part of the month before the coronavirus crisis exploded.


Until this week, virtually all of the economic reports tracked most closely by Wall Street have covered January and February, when the coronavirus had hardly any effect on the economy.

Now the damage reports are beginning to flood in. Some states such as New York and New Jersey have already announced a big increase in people applying for unemployment benefits. Rhode Island, for example, said nearly 7,000 people filed new jobless claims on Monday, compared to just 160 on the prior Monday.

“We are seeing a skyrocket in our unemployment insurance claims,” Gov. Gina Raimondo said.

If those numbers are duplicated around the country, new claims could soar past 300,000 on Thursday for the first time since 2015. Just 10 months ago, they touched a 50-year low of 193,000.

“I think we are going to see a significant spike tomorrow,” said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial. “It could be an unsettling number.”

Whether it gets worse than that will depend on how quickly the federal government moves to supply aid to the thousands of businesses and millions of workers that have been harmed by large parts of the economy shutting down."

AND

S&P 500 earnings expected to decline 0.2% in first quarter from year earlier

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...first-quarter-from-year-earlier-idUSKBN21539I

"S&P 500 companies' .SPX earnings are expected to decline in the first quarter from the year-earlier period, reversing a forecast for profit gains, according to IBES data from Refinitiv, as companies face the toll from the coronavirus outbreak.

As of Wednesday, analysts were forecasting a 0.2% year-over-year fall in earnings for the S&P 500 for the quarter. That is down sharply from a Jan. 1 forecast for 6.3% growth, per Refinitiv’s data, which is based on estimates from analysts who cover individual companies.

Analysts’ profit estimates have deteriorated in recent weeks as the rapidly spreading virus has hit spending and business activity, with many experts now expecting a recession in the United States.

Their S&P 500 earnings forecast for 2020 has dropped as well, but analysts are still expecting profit growth of 4.1% for the year. That is down from an estimate of 9.7% at the start of 2020.

For weeks now, strategists at big Wall Street banks have been slashing their profit forecasts as well, and some have said the impact of the virus will reach well beyond the first quarter and could easily put 2020 profit growth in jeopardy.

“With earnings estimates, you’re on the down elevator right now, so you’ll have several cuts as people are trying to figure out when they hit the ground level,” said Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer of Vantagepoint Investment Advisers.

“I hear a lot fewer people talking about this V-shaped recovery as we start to broaden out the magnitude of what’s going to happen.”

After a lackluster year of profit growth in 2019, many investors had been hoping earnings this year would be strong enough to support further market gains."

MY COMMENT

Day by day.....step by step....we will move forward through this environment. I was out and about today and found people that were out to be generally in a good mood. Most were NOT afraid to talk about what is going on and as usual I was SURPRISED by how many thought what was going on and how some people were reacting was pretty....STUPID. We ate lunch at a local restaurant in a town that has NOT closed businesses. There were about 10 tables of people when there are usually about 35.

The WORST thing for markets is THE UNKNOWN. Clarity.....good or bad....clarity will be very welcome news. Analysts forecasting a .2% fall in earnings in the first quarter year over year......is in my opinion....cause to CHEER if it comes true. That would be a very minimal hit to most companies....barely in the negative. Also the fact that analysts are STILL expecting profit growth for the year of 4.1%.......again.......in my opinion cause to CHEER.

ONE thing is CLEAR........once the virus issue dies down we will be back to dealing with a fundamental economy that will have TONS of pent up demand here and around the world. So...hang in there.....all is not lost. The NORMAL world will come back, it will just take a little while.

 

Welcome Sean. WHAT you are doing seems perfectly reasonable. As a 25 year old you have......40+ YEARS....till retirement, 40 years. That is HUGE. Someone like you, at your age, that continues to fund their IRA, PLUS, puts what they REASONABLY can into stocks or funds monthly during this event, for the long term, will make a lot of money over the coming years.

YES, the markets will go back up...this is not the end of the world. It is a short term event. This is a 6-12 month event. Look at all that the government is doing to stimulate the economy. All the various plans that are being passed by congress are going to pump somewhere between $1TRILLION and $1.5TRILLION into the AMERICAN economy in the span of about 6-12 months. The economy is going to MASSIVELY BOOM once this event is over. People like you with TIME will do very nicely.

If it was me, I would balance AGGRESSIVE with REASON. I would invest what I could.....AS LONG AS....it is money that is long term money. I would not GAMBLE with short to medium term money.....in other words short to medium term trading. I would try to make this time period a REALISTIC, long term investing, opportunity......NOT a trading opportunity. My goals would be to......FIRST...make sure I had my finances set up to protect myself and my family so my short term needs were covered in a conservative way even in a WORST CASE scenario. SECOND.....with LONG TERM funds that is not be critical short term money.......I would invest INTO the downturn every month, if possible.

You are to be COMMENDED for being smart enough at age 25 to realize the POWER of investing and taking care of your long term future. You are ahead of many people your age with your thinking. Feel free to post any time.

 

WELL....it is a good day. The markets today "feel" normal for the first time in weeks. That does not mean further drops in the averages are canceled. But, it is a good begining. I have seen a couple of POSITIVE, HOPEFUL, HALLMARK CHANEL STYLE, stories in the national news sources lately.

People putting up Christmas lights to cheer up their neighborhood. Another neighborhood where people would go out on their porches in the evening and have a glass of wine and shout to their neighbors.

To me, these sorts of stories showing up in the national media is a good sign. Simply my opinion.....but....the media is tiring of the doom and gloom. Stories about HOPE are more interesting and getting more response. So...I see a little change there in how the media is playing the virus story. A POSITIVE step in the process of moving on.

I say the above as an investor. As I said, TODAY, seems like a normal acting market in general. I was thinking earlier......we have so HYPED this event to the EXTREME negative side. At this point what is BAKED IN is the ABSOLUTE, WORST possible scenario. The nice thing about this is.......in my opinion....in terms of business, the economy, investing, etc, etc, the expectations have gotten SO EXTREME that there is a "PROBABILITY" that the actual reality will be LESS SEVERE than expected. Again this does not mean that we are at a bottom. Who knows? We may still go down another 10-20%. No one knows, but positive signs are popping up.

I DO BELIEVE that the news today regarding using the malaria drug is VERY POSITIVE. If this treatment data holds up this drug has the potential to END this virus event as a news item. If we do validate a good treatment like this.....and are able to get the treatment out there into the mainstream....... the markets will turn around quickly.

I see as I am typing this the gains have disappeared in the Dow. "East Coast "lunchtime" affect"

 

HERE is the drug I mentioned above:

Old malaria drug hydroxychloroquine may help cure coronavirus: study

https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


"A drug developed over half a century ago to treat malaria is showing signs that it may also help cure COVID-19 — especially when combined with an antibiotic, a promising new study reveals.

Hydroxychloroquine, sold under the brand name Plaquenil — and also used to treat arthritis and other ailments — was determined to be effective in killing the deadly bug in laboratory experiments, Forbes reported, citing findings published March 9 in the Clinical Infectious Diseases journal.

“(W)e predict that the drug has a good potential to combat the disease,” the study’s authors, most from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Wuhan, wrote in a letter published in Cell Discovery on Wednesday, according to the report.

Now, French physician-researchers have completed a largely successful clinical trial using the drug — approved for use in the US in 1955 — to treat confirmed COVID-19 patients, according to a study published Wednesday.

A total of 36 patients — including 20 treated individuals and 16 infected controls — were enrolled in the study, led by Didier Raoult, an infectious disease expert from l’Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire in Marseille.

The treated group was given 600 mg of Plaquenil each day.

The researchers found that 50 percent of the treated group turned from positive to negative for the virus by the third day — and by day six, that figure was up to 70 percent.

Of the 20 test patients, six who were treated with both Plaquenil and the antibiotic azithromycin showed impressive results — with five testing negative at day three. All six of them tested negative at day six.

“Despite its small sample size our survey shows that hydroxychloroquine treatment is significantly associated with viral load reduction/disappearance in COVID-19 patients and its effect is reinforced by azithromycin,” the study concluded.

Meanwhile, researchers found that a pill containing two HIV drugs touted as a potential treatment for COVID-19 was not effective.

A test of Chinese patients with a severe case of the novel coronavirus found that the 99 who received AbbVie Inc.’s Kaletra, a cocktail of lopinavir and ritonavir, did not do any better than the 100 who received standard care."

MY COMMENT

A targeted, highly effective treatment like this.....could.....knock out this virus very quickly. ONCE....it is made available to the entire country.

 

YES....please do. It would also be interesting to hear whatever you can tell us about your experiences in this event as an RN and if you see or deal with or hear about what is going on in local hospitals, ER rooms, etc,etc.

 

HERE is what I mean by the EXPECTATIONS having gotten extreme to the DARK SIDE. Fine with me, the more the markets bake in these very DIRE predictions, the more probability that this event will turn out to have a surprise upside and a better recovery.

Wall Street is updating its recession predictions. They're extremely bleak

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/investing/premarket-stocks/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the biggest US bank, has dramatically changed its economic forecast for the next year. And it's bleak.

"There is no longer doubt that the longest global expansion on record will end this quarter," Bruce Kasman, the bank's head of economic research, told clients on Wednesday. "The key outlook issue now is gauging the depth and the duration of the 2020 recession."

JPMorgan now believes that China's economy will shrink by 40% compared to the previous quarter between January and March, the biggest contraction recorded over the past 50 years at least. That will reverberate across Asia.

The shock to the United States and Europe, meanwhile, is expected to be concentrated between April and June as daily life grinds to a standstill. The bank thinks US GDP will shrink an annualized rate of 14% in the second quarter, far worse than in the fourth quarter of 2008, which yielded the steepest contraction of the Great Recession.

European Central Bank throws 750 billion euros at the economy to fight the coronavirus crash
JPMorgan predicts this will force the US unemployment rate up from 3.5% to 6.25% by the middle of the year, before falling to 5.25% by the end of 2020.

The situation looks even worse in Europe, which is now the epicenter of the pandemic. The eurozone economy is forecast to shrink 22% during the second quarter, while the UK economy is expected to contract 30%.

That's even with the understanding that stimulus efforts from central banks and governments is building.

The European Central Bank on Wednesday announced a huge new money-printing program. It said it would spend €750 billion ($821 billion) buying government debt and private securities before the end of 2020, and stands ready to do even more if necessary. But even that action has failed to steady stock markets, which fell again in much of Europe in early trading.
JPMorgan still predicts a significant rebound in the second half of the year, but notes that in the current environment, it's hard to say for sure.

"If a normalization in activity from depressed levels takes hold midyear alongside building policy stimulus, the depth of the current downturn can be seen as a springboard for a strong snapback in growth," Kasman said. "However, there is a significant risk that the virus outbreak persists and activity remains restricted for a longer time."

The updated forecasts from the bank — which has global growth contracting 12% in the first quarter and 1.2% for the second quarter, as China gets its economy back on track — is among the most dire published by Wall Street.

It's a sign of how rapidly the situation is changing, and how investors are still racing to catch up to complete shutdowns in large parts of the world. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs predicted that US GDP would shrink 5% in the second quarter of the year.

'Dash for cash': The US dollar plows ahead
There's only one currency that investors want to hold right now, and that's the US dollar.
The ultimate safe haven investment is surging as companies and investors scramble for cash, with economic and financial uncertainty tied to the coronavirus pandemic reaching new heights.

"The primary driving force in [currency] markets remains the 'dash for cash,'" James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities, told clients on Thursday. "The cash the market wants most is the US dollar."
The US Dollar Index has climbed to its highest level in three years. That's come at the expense of other currencies; the British pound is hovering around $1.15, close to its lowest level since 1985.
Even the Japanese yen, another traditional safe haven investment, has suffered, weakening 0.9% against the US dollar on Thursday.

Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes warns that central banks will need to deal with the shortage of dollars promptly in order for currency markets to stabilize.

Earlier this week, the US Federal Reserve struck a deal with five other foreign central banks — the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank — to lower their rates on currency swaps, the first time its taken such action since the European debt crisis in 2011. This made borrowing US dollars cheaper for banks around the world."

MY COMMENT

GOOD NEWS....in a perverse way. Lets get it all out there and into people's expectations and there will be nowhere to go but up.

 

I will NOW get back on my soapbox.....for only ONE post.

EVERYTHING I have heard says that this PAUSE in the economy and having people stay home WILL NOT stop this virus. It will simply delay the spread. OK. What will stop this virus is a vaccine......a year away....or an effective treatment (possibly available soon).

In the meantime.......What are we going to do in a few weeks?

The level of fear and panic and IRRATIONAL thinking that is escalating at the moment has the potential to unleash a situation that will TOTALLY ECLIPSE this little virus. We are looking at........and are heading toward......a world event of our own making....IF we do NOT wake up. We are RUSHING and PUSHING the world from a MINOR event toward a MAJOR DISASTER of epic proportions.

IF......at the moment "IF"...we continue on the path we are on, closing down the world, we are going to destroy the entire world economy. The number of deaths as a result will make the virus quickly forgotten. A TOTAL destruction of the world economy will, of course, ALSO set off SEVERE destruction of social norms and order and governments.

It is HARSH to say this.....BUT....there is a point where the protection of society and world order requires just stepping aside and allowing the virus move around the world. In a country like the USA the death rate might be about 1%. THE question is when is enough enough with the current IRRATIONAL responses.

TODAY....the latest figures show that we have about 15,000 cases here in AMERICA and about 218 deaths. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ In response we have the largest economy in the country, California, locked down. Now I am hearing a few minutes ago that New York.....I believe the city, not the state........is being locked down.....no activity allowed outside of critical services and businesses.

ASK YOURSELF.......ARE YOU WILLING:

To lose everything you own to try to prevent a 1% death rate?

To destroy the entire world economy to prevent a 1% death rate?

To lose your house and all property to prevent a 1% death rate?

WHO do you think is going to pay you and support you if your job is destroyed along with the world economy?

Do you think any money you might have today is going to still be there if the world economy collapses?

Do you think your employer is even going to EXIST....much less PAY YOU.......... if we continue to shut everything down?

AND...etc, etc, etc, etc.....you can imagine many more questions like the above.

At the moment the impact of this minor virus has been insignificant in this country. The responses we are taking are what is creating the impact at the moment. It is likely that the number of cases in existence are WAY ABOVE the figures being reported and that means that the death rate is much lower than being reported. It has been said thousands of times....BUT...we have numerous diseases like FLU and many others around the world that produce a far higher number of deaths EVERY YEAR and yet we are oblivious to them.

N FACT here are the causes of death EVERY YEAR.......JUST IN the United States:

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

There is a point where what we are doing will be IRREVERSIBLE.....not the virus....the response to the virus......the impact on economics, business, and society. BELIEVE ME......government CAN NOT mandate that you get paid, that you get to keep your house, that your retirement money will be there, that you will have any assets at all......if the entire economy collapses due to IRRATIONAL responses to this virus. TAKING it to the EXTREME...do you think you are going to live in a free country, a democracy, if we continue down the road we are starting down?

YES....there are EXTREME QUESTIONS and comments. BUT...we need to very quickly......AND RATIONALLY........ weigh where we are heading before we end up in a place we never imagined while trying to prevent a 1% death rate.

AND....yes, I am in a high risk population personally......age 70....with some.....usually......minor health issues.

DISCUSSION?

 

BUT....moving on. I am encouraged by how the markets seem to be reacting today. SEEMS rational and reasonable compared to other things that are going on.

 

AND....let me say about the SOAPBOX post.....before we get ALL carried away with fear and panic.

In my BUSINESS LIFE as a business owner, part of my work REQUIRED.......very clinical.......evaluation of "risk" and "probability"......sometimes regarding scientific and medical issues.

Do I think what I posted above is "probable".....no. At this point is it "possible".....yes. It is among the range of risk that should be considered and evaluated from a clinical standpoint in regards to what is happening now. I PROBABLY have a certain mental toughness in being able to look at and consider ALL potential outcomes from a situation because of my business life. ESPECIALLY unpleasant and negative outcomes. This sort of evaluation CAN create fear or unease in people that are NOT used to evaluating and looking at situations in this way, especially EXTREME situations.

SO....hang in there, turn off the TV, quit reading about this stuff.......even quit reading this thread....if necessary for day to day living and sanity.

I DO think the markets are showing REMARKABLE strength today in the face of escalating FEAR and PANIC. This is TWO days in a row for rational market action........so far......but, the close is a ways off. REMEMBER......MAXIMUM FEAR and PANIC will come as we near a bottom in the markets. That is the way it always has been.......and it will be the same this time around.

I fear OVERREACTION on the part of State and Local politicians more than I fear the virus or what is happening in the financial markets.

TAKE CARE of yourself and your family, EVERYONE.

 

WELL...the one POSITIVE thing you can say about this week as an investor....is that it is over. The lower we go, the closer we are to the bottom.

Just got back home from lunch at one of our regular places....ordered by phone and did pick up inside. We will SUPPORT the local places as much as possible. Also took a drive out on country roads to get away from the MEDIA INSANITY and the TV. Just OBNOXIOUS.

I DID think the markets were much more "NORMAL" yesterday and the first half of today. So, that is something.

AND....next week is a NEW BEGINNING.

DOW year to date. (-32.81%)
SP500 year to date (-28.66%)

News of the day.....TAX FILING is now deadline is NOW July 15. Good with me, I owe plenty and will just hang onto that money till July. I have the money segregated, ready to pay. BUT...I will wait till July 15, in case they make some other change to what is owed or when it is owed.

 

Interesting story:

New York, California stay-at-home orders mark next phase of U.S. coronavirus crisis

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...phase-of-u-s-coronavirus-crisis-idUSKBN21729V

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Tens of millions of New Yorkers and Californians adjusted to a new phase in the coronavirus crisis in the United States on Friday - staying inside or making excursions while keeping six feet (two meters) away from each other following state orders for all non-essential workers to remain indoors.

Imposing tough new restrictions, the orders limit the activity of up to 60 million people in the two most populous states but allow businesses to provide essential services and goods such as food, medicines and electricity and water.

New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said he planned to give similar orders shutting down all but essential businesses within the next 24 hours. Nearly nine million people live in the state west of New York. Illinois, which includes Chicago and has about 12.7 million residents, also ordered non-essential workers to stay home.

The orders combined amount to roughly 1 in 5 people in the United States being told to stay home out of a population of 325 million.

The four states where governors have banned or will soon ban non-essential businesses and ask residents to stay home account for about 30% of the U.S. economy, the world’s biggest.

In Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York City, even fewer people were seen on the streets than have been of late after directives from California Governor Gavin Newsom and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.

In New York City’s Central Park, several bikers and joggers were on the pathways, mostly alone but a few in pairs.

“It’s real and it’s scary, I hate it,” said physical therapist Kerry Cashin, 49, of the stay-at-home order. “I feel like I always knew it was going to go this way, but it made me scared.”

Just two dozen people milled outside Hollywood’s Dolby Theater in Los Angeles, the home of the Oscars, an area normally teeming with hundreds of tourists.

Zane Alexander, 27, said he was on his way to pick up his last paycheck “until lord knows when.” He had been working on a medical marijuana dispensary’s street team, a job that normally had him outside. Alexander said he was told Thursday evening the street team was disbanded until further notice.

A message about protecting yourself from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is seen on an electronic billboard in a nearly empty Times Square in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., March 20, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar
“It’s totally understandable,” Alexander said, but added “I sure wish it weren’t the case.”

Retiree Jerry Rasmussen, 73, sat on a sunny public bench reading the San Francisco Chronicle in the city’s central neighborhood of Cole Valley, with hand sanitizer, gloves and a mask beside him.

“I figure being outdoors like this is pretty safe, as long as I’m not too close to anyone,” he said.

MY COMMENT

EASY for the politicians to order. MOST have NEVER owned or run a private business or worked in a job that was NOT a government job. SO......how long are we going to have ONE IN FIVE people in the USA and 30% of the USA economy shut down? A week, two weeks, a month? How many of these people.....at least those that are NOT government workers will still have a job when the order is lifted? How many of the private businesses that make up this......30% of the US economy......will still exist when the orders are lifted?

AND....now that it has been established as the standard political response in California, New York, etc, etc.....we will NO DOUBT see many more States doing similar shut-downs......especially on the East and West coasts.

 

Just for the .....historical record....today is the ONE MONTH anniversary of the begining of this little market event. The DROP started February 20, 2020. Today is March 20, 2020. The DOW on February 20, 2020 was 29,219, give or take a few points. The Dow today is 19,173. Of course, a drop of just over 10,000 points in one month. I will repeat for context in this post, what I posted above:

DOW year to date. (-32.81%)
SP500 year to date (-28.66%)