The Long Term Investor

A very good week this week. I believe it is our second GREEN WEEK in a row. We have a streak going....lets keep it up.

DOW year to date (-4.06%)
DOW for the week +0.31%

SP500 year to date (-4.68%)
SP500 for the week +1.79%

NASDAQ 100 year to date (-9.59%)
NASDAQ 100 for the week +2.32%

NASDAQ year to date (-9.43%)
NASDAQ for the week +1.98%

RUSSELL year to date (-7.45%)
RUSSELL for the week (-0.39%)

YES.....I see that it is in fact the second week of GAINS in a row. We are on a ROLL. A geat way to go into the weekend and next week we will.....HIT IT HARD.

 

In celebration of our FREE MARKET capitalistic system I like this little article. Food for thought......and......the answer to the question in the title is.......NO, THEY DONT".

Do They Not Know?

https://www.aier.org/article/do-they-not-know/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Many of us who remember when eastern Europeans were imprisoned behind an Iron Curtain – and who rejoiced when that Curtain crashed in 1989, soon to be followed by the demise of the USSR in 1991 – look with a combination of befuddlement and contempt at young people who today clamor for socialism. While hardly a hot take, this report of befuddlement and contempt raises a question to which a good answer has yet to be given – namely, Why? Why are so many people today ga-ga for government direction of the economy? More generally, why today do so many people – on the political left and right – wish to replace free commercial markets with a system of bureaucratic diktats?

What, precisely, do such people not know?

Do they not know basic economic history? Do they not know that prior to the Industrial Revolution nearly all men, women, and children, since the origin of our species, lived in poverty that is to us today unimaginable? Do they not know that before capitalism, nearly everyone not fortunate enough to have laid claim to a cave, lived in cramped dwellings with dirt floors, thatched roofs crawling with vermin and insects, and no indoor plumbing?

Do they not know that the great economic equality that, before capitalism, was long the lot of 99 percent of humans was equality only of deprivation and high risk of early death? Do they not know that ordinary people began to enjoy a reasonable expectation of living above subsistence only when and where innovative commercial markets – extensive free markets – finally began to take hold?

Do they not know that life in modern market economies is not only richer in toys and trinkets than was life before modernity, but that those of us who live in modern market economies live much longer and more healthily than did our ancestors? And are today’s socialists unaware that in our longer lives each of us has access to a range of life choices that were inconceivable to people in the past?

Do they not know that inequality of monetary income and wealth is not remotely the same as inequality of access to goods and services? Jeff Bezos might well be worth, in dollars, 1.5 million times more than is the typical American family. But Jeff Bezos doesn’t eat any more than does the typical American. Nor does he have 1.5 million times more clothing, living space, or leisure.

Do cheerleaders for government intervention not know that, in terms of ability to consume, we are becoming ever more equal (at least before the devastation wrought by COVID interventions)?

Do today’s enemies of free markets not know that we ordinary Americans are now arguably wealthier – in terms of what we routinely consume – than was J.D. Rockefeller and other super rich Americans a mere century ago? Do these enemies of markets not know that the amount of time the typical American worker must toil in order to earn enough income to buy most goods and services has, over the long run, been steadily falling?

Do the protestors who now demand either that capitalism end or be significantly bridled by government have any idea of the enormous complexity of the modern markets that they seek to destroy or to replace with so-called “industrial policies”? Do these people not know that modern prosperity is impossible without a deep division of labor which encourages each producer to supply highly specialized skills and to learn highly specialized knowledge – knowledge that is dispersed in countless bits across billions of minds around the globe? Without this specialization, modern prosperity is impossible. Yet no human mind can begin to know enough to ‘engineer’ complex economic systems in ways that improve their performance. Is this reality unknown to those who are dissatisfied that markets fail to produce heaven on earth?

Or perhaps these proponents of government direction of the economy don’t know the history of socialism.

Do they not know that socialism, when and wherever it has been tried, delivered not prosperity but plunder and tyranny? Do they not know of Stalin’s famines and purges? Of Pol Pot’s massacres? Of Mao’s devastation? Of the calamity in Cuba caused by Castro? Of the economic and social chaos in Venezuela created by Chavez and Maduro? Do they really believe that Che Guevara was a romantic revolutionary with saintly designs? Do they not know that this man was in reality a cold-blooded thug?

Do people who trust government officials and distrust business owners and executives not realize that, no matter how much leeway a business person might possess in a free market, that person never has the power to coerce consumers or workers? Do enthusiasts for government not realize the importance of each worker’s ability to say ‘no’ to offers of employment, and of each consumer’s ability to say ‘no’ to a merchant’s offer of some good or service? Do these enthusiasts for government believe that government officials, who do not have to take ‘no’ for an answer, will – as a result of their ability to use coercion – treat ordinary people better than ordinary people are treated by business people, who do have to take ‘no’ for an answer?

Or perhaps those now screaming for socialism don’t really know much about human nature. Do they not know that individuals given power to coerce other individuals are prone to abuse that power – and that such individuals become more prone to abuse power the longer they possess power and the more extravagant are the promises that were made in order to secure power?

Do today’s socialists, as well as advocates of industrial policy, not know that human beings given the power unilaterally to take or to alter strangers’ property rights have little incentive to take into consideration the welfare of those whose property they take or destroy? Do advocates of socialism or industrial policy not know that the greater is government officials’ discretionary power to command economic arrangements the greater is the risk that these officials will be corrupted?

Do today’s skeptics of free markets – whether these skeptics be full-on socialists or advocates of ‘mere’ industrial policy – have any accurate knowledge of economic history, of economics, or of human nature?


I think that they do not."

MY COMMENT

I prefer to think that they are IGNORANT....of....history, economics, human nature, etc, etc, etc. The ONLY other alternative is that they are pushing for Socialism and worse....INTENTIONALLY. I have yet to see any of......"those people".....give up their piece of the pie.......even though they want to take yours.

 

Yeah.....me too....roadtonowhere08. the most I could scrape together was enough for FOUR shares of Tesla a few days ago. Everything else that is market money was ALL IN as usual.

 

Perhaps......we are seeing a little bit of a change in the local real estate market. In my little area of 4200 homes we NOW have 15 active listings. That is the most we have had in a long time. Only four of them are under $1MILLION......so still not great for the typical first time buyer. BUT.....better than it has been in a long time.....one to two years now.

It seems like prices have finally gotten so high that I get the feeling that sellers are being tempted to try to sell. This might just be the spring market ramping up.....or.....it might be a sign of more inventory to come and a less brutal market. In any event.....15 listings out of 4200 homes is STILL a HUGE sellers market. And....sales of desirable homes are still happening FAST. A house near ours....about a block away...just went pending in one day. It is pending at a price that is about 120% of where it would have sold three years ago.

 

You had to be TOUGH as an investor in the old days.

When Investing for the Long Term Still Isn’t Long Enough

https://stockaholics.net/threads/the-long-term-investor.6179/page-511

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"We are seeing war, inflation, and murmurs of recession. We have markets tipping over the edge in terms of price to equity and price to sales, even with the recent correction. Rates are shifting into reverse after a secular decline of 40 years. Can history give us any clues of what to expect from here?


Maybe.

Unfortunately, the period with the most similarity to now is the 1970s, a decade with wars that led to commodity shocks–which led to inflation, followed by recession, capped with skyrocketing rates. And through it all, a sustained stock market downturn persisted after a period of “irrational exuberance.”


The result? As we worked through this turmoil, the level of the S&P 500 in 1968 did not return for good until 1982. Those 14 years add up to more than a lost decade of equity appreciation.

Here’s a blow-by-blow of what was happening in the 1970’s. See what you think relates to what is happening today:

• A burst in the Nifty Fifty, the era’s blue chips. Many spotted P/E ratios north of 50.
• Two geopolitical disruptions: The 1973 Yom Kippur War, and the 1979 Iran Revolution. (There was also the Vietnam War, of course.)
• Two oil shocks that followed those disruptions. Oil was a far more critical commodity than it is today, and the price change was far greater than anything being anticipated today.
• Energy shocks helped fuel inflation. Most memorable meme: President Ford’s 1974 WIN buttons, for Whip Inflation Now.
• A recession followed, which, in combination with inflation, was difficult to navigate with the monetary policy tools of the period that required keeping one foot on the brake and the other on the accelerator.
• It all culminated in skyrocketing rates. The U.S. 10-year went into double digits in 1980, peaking a year later at over 14%. This led to a shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary regime under Chair Paul Volcker. (That would be like a move away from quantitative easing today.)

An important lesson from the 1970s is that events can come into play from different points, one after the other, playing on the vulnerability created by the ones that came before.

This is also a lesson from the dot-com bubble and the 2008 crisis. These were not two events. They were the interaction and sequencing of multiple events, each making the following ones worse. The Nasdaq initially dropped about 30% without much movement in the S&P 500. Then the wind came out of the market overall, and the broader market dropped for another leg down. After that came the earnings scandals of Enron and friends, which caused yet another drop. The same is true with 2008. There was Bear Stearns, mortgages, banks, and before the dust settled, the European credit issues.

I think of the 2000s like an episode of the TV show House. A patient comes in with a mystery ailment. As if that isn’t bad enough, over time it leads to yet another; one organ failure after the next, usually occurring just before each commercial break.

Those doing their financial planning in 1968 were in for a big disappointment. When they arrived in 1982 they had a stock portfolio that hadn’t changed in the past decade and a half. (Not to mention what happened to any 30-year Treasuries they held!) The same has happened more recently: We had a lost decade from 2000 to 2014. That is, only in 2014 did stocks head up for good from the levels they hit in 2000. For long-term investors, the best advice is to stay invested and ride out market downturns and crises, because over the long run equity returns are strikingly steady. But in some cases 10 or 15 years is not long-term enough.

Of course, we will never really have a rerun of the 1970’s. The markets are dynamic; they don’t run in reverse. But as Mark Twain is reputed to have said, history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes."

MY COMMENT

Not even close.....to compare today to the time period from 1968 to 1982. Unless you lived through it and were old enough.....you have no idea how disrupted and dismal that era was for investors and society. The Viet Nam war was a HUGE societal event.......EVERY.......male was drafted after high school graduation unless they went to college and got a deferral. The Nixon impeachment and resignation, The anti war movement, the Ford years, the absolutely DISMAL Jimmy Carter years with the Iran hostage situation dragging on and on and on. Gas rationing, huge mortgage and interest rates way beyond anything remotely contemplated or understood today, etc, etc, etc.

What we are seeing now can not compare to the economic, social, governmental, events of that time.

BUT........it is still possible to have extended time periods where investors stand still.......as long as 3-10 years. The definition of......long term investing......has now been distorted to where many people think of it as being 2-5 years. The real definition of long term investing is about 40 years. In other words the person starts investing by about age 28 and continues till about age 68. That is the best and safest course.

 

A moderate mixed open today....but I will take it.....since it is benefiting me....so far. A nothing sort of day when it comes to financial topics and/or news. Just the way I like it.

 

This is probably the BIG STORY of the day for me and many others.

Tesla plans another stock split

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/28/investing/tesla-stock-split/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"New York (CNN Business) Tesla is asking its shareholders for permission to split its stock for the second time in two years.

This split would come in the form of a dividend, which would pay shareholders additional shares. Most dividends pay cash to investors.

The electric car maker did not give details about how many shares investors would receive. Its previous split in August of 2020 gave shareholders five shares for every share they own.

Tesla stock struggled in the early part of this year but has been on a run since the company announced it received German government approval to deliver the first cars built at its new factory outside of Berlin. Shares are up 32% since closing at $766.37 just two weeks ago. The stock closed Friday at $1,010, which once again gives the company a market value greater than $1 trillion.

In premarket trading, Tesla shares rose 5%.

A number of other high flying tech stocks have announced splits recently, including Amazon (AMZN) and Google owner Alphabet (GOOG). Both announced plans for 20-for-1 stock splits since the start of February.

The timing of the Tesla split is also not known, as the date of this year's shareholders meeting, at which there will be a vote on the plan, has yet to be announced. Last year the shareholders' meeting was held October 7.

Stock splits do not fundamentally change the value of a company. But since they lower the price that shareholders need to pay to buy a single share, they can increase demand, and thus the price.

The day that Tesla's previous five-for-one split went into effect, shares jumped 12.6%. And shares have more than doubled since that time. But that split came in the midst of an historic run for Tesla shares, which gained 743% during the course of 2020.

"Given how well the stock has done since the last split, this wasn't a surprise," said Dan Ives, tech analyst with Wedbush Securities.

Given the various options available for retail investors to buy just a fraction of a share of individual companies with high stock prices, such as index funds and ETFs, a stock split isn't as crucial as it once was. But most companies — other than Berkshire Hathaway — don't want to let their individual share price get too high. Shares of Tesla would be worth more than $5,000 each without the original split.

Even with its new factories near Berlin and Austin, Texas, Tesla is still a fraction of the size of most long-established automakers. But it's rapid growth — the company projects annual sales increases of 50% or greater — and the anticipation that Tesla is poised to cash in on an industry wide shift from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, have driven incredible gains in market value.

Since October 2019, when Tesla shifted from a series of quarterly losses to an unexpected profit, shares of the stock have climbed 1884% through Friday's close. Tesla is now worth more than the combined value of world's 13 largest automakers.""

MY COMMENT

Elon Musk strikes again. This man knows how to lead a company and knows where his focus should be......on business......not all the outside crap that too many in the corporate world are focused on right now.

As to the stock split....if the annual meeting in in October this is a long way off.....but.....MUSK is going to wring every bit of PR value out of this for the next 8 months.

 

We are in the usual mid-morning slump with all the averages at the moment. The question is will it escalate or will it fade back to green. Of course the answer is two fold.......who cares......and.....who knows.

 

Here is what is ON DECK for this week.......the usual hindsight economic data.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks mixed as investors await wave of economic reports

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-28-2022-114226616.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks were mixed Monday as investors prepare for a busy week rife with key economic data that could position the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively on plans to raise interest rates.

The S&P 500 dipped about 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 130 points. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.3%. The moves come after all three major benchmarks registered their second straight week of gains on Friday to close at one-month highs. Meanwhile, bond yields continued to climb, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury near 2.5% Monday morning.

Investors are beginning to price in a ramp up in rate hikes this year after recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a 50 basis point bump was on the table as officials lean into higher borrowing costs aimed to curb surging inflation levels. Economic data out of Washington this week could further stoke expectations central bank policymakers may move ahead with a half-point hike.
The all-important March jobs report is the highlight of economic reports this week. Labor market tightness has strongly informed the Fed’s decision to rein in monetary policy, with momentum in the economic recovery suggesting to officials that the U.S. economy could weather less accommodative financial conditions. Moreover, while an improving labor market is good for U.S. households, widespread job openings have made room for significant leverage for workers, driving wage gains higher and further elevating inflationary pressures. The report is likely to show another robust reading with payrolls expected to rise by 490,000, according to Bloomberg economist estimates.

“The payroll jobs report could be the biggest one yet in this recovery from the pandemic,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said in a recent note. “Federal Reserve officials are already chomping at the bit for bigger 50 bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings, and the tightest labor market since the 1960s is like pouring gasoline on the fire where any policy official worth his or her salt is burning with desire to get interest rates up to 2% neutral levels now.”

Another focal point for traders on the economic data front this week is a fresh read on the monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator due out Thursday. The gauge is another indicator of how quickly prices are increasing across the country. Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in February, according to Bloomberg data. The core PCE index, which the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy, is also expected to show an increase when the print publishes Wednesday. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.5% increase in core PCE in February, compared to January’s 5.2% rise.

Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine also continues to be on the radar for investors. U.S. officials have walked back contentious remarks made by President Joe Biden over the weekend that appeared to call for the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin during a speech in Poland.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Sunday during a visit to Israel that the U.S. is not seeking to remove Putin from power.

“As you know, and as you’ve heard us say repeatedly, we do not have a strategy of regime change in Russia or anywhere else,” Blinken said. “In this case, as in any case, it’s up to the people of the country in question. It’s up to the Russian people.”

10:52 a.m. ET: Walmart to end tobacco sales in some U.S. store locations

Walmart Inc. (WMT) will halt tobacco products sales in some of its stores, the company said Monday, without indicating how many locations specifically would be affected by the decision.

Cigarettes will be removed from stores located in California, Florida and New Mexico. However, the world's largest retailer will not be exiting the category entirely.

The move comes following calls from several Democratic U.S. senators urging the company and other retailers to stop selling all tobacco products. CVS became the first U.S. drugstore chain to take cigarettes off the shelves in 2014.

Walmart previously stopped sales of e-cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery products at its U.S. stores a few years ago amid regulatory scrutiny.

10:45 a.m. ET: Amazon erases year-to-date losses to reclaim title as Big Tech leader

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) rallied to start the week, becoming the first megacap tech company to pare losses for the year.

Shares of the e-commerce giant jumped as much as 2.2% to their highest level since Jan. 4 to trade flat on the year after erasing more than 18% earlier this month. The stock traded at about $3,337.60 per share, up 1.28%m as of 10:41 a.m. ET.

“We’ve seen a shift back into these kinds of high-quality growth names, with strong balance sheets and market positions, and Amazon’s strength also reflects how strong the consumer continues to be,” Charles Schwab vice president of trading and derivatives Randy Frederick said.

The company eased worries about its post-pandemic growth prospects after blowout fourth-quarter results in early February that sent shares soaring. Amazon also announced a 20-for-1 stock split one month later, spurring further gains for the company.

10:30 a.m. ET: Tesla shares pop after company unveils plans for another stock split

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is plotting its second stock split in roughly two years in the form of a dividend The electric-car maker will ask shareholders to vote at this year’s annual meeting to authorize additional shares in order to enable the plit, the company announced in a tweet.

The news sent the stock up more than 5% to trade at about $1,064.28 per share as of 10:26 a.m. ET.

“On March 28, 2022, Tesla, Inc. announced its plan to request stockholder approval at the upcoming 2022 Annual Meeting of Stockholders for an increase in the number of authorized shares of common stock through an amendment to the Company’s Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation in order to enable a stock split of the Company’s common stock in the form of a stock dividend. Tesla’s Board of Directors has approved the management proposal, but the stock dividend will be contingent on final Board approval,” a subsequent filing by Tesla with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said.

Tesla joins other Big Tech giants including Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple planning a stock split.

9:12 a.m. ET: HP seeks to purchase Poly in $3.3 billion cash deal

HP Inc. (HP) has set out to acquire audio and video devices maker Poly in a deal valued at $3.3 billion as the company looks to capitalize on the rise of hybrid work.

The information technology firm has offered $40 for each share, or about $1.7 billion total in cash, of Poly, formerly known as Plantronics. The amount represents a premium of about 53% to the stock's last closing price.

"The rise of the hybrid office creates a once-in-a-generation opportunity to redefine the way work gets done," HP Chief Executive Officer Enrique Lores said.

Shares of HP fell 2.2% in premarket trading to about $38.95 a piece as of 9:10 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, Poly’s (POLY) stock surged 48% to $38.87 per share."

MY COMMENT

It is nice to see AMAZON erased their losses for the year. Gee......it is interesting the business driving power of a little stock split. All these companies need to take a lesson from Elon Musk......a real focused company leader that is always in constant promotional mode for his business.

As to the economic data......YAWN.....who cares. This article is a direct result of the MORONIC FED comments a week ago that put the unknown back into what they are going to do going forward. They just could not shut up.......and now.....we are back to a totally speculative and fear mongering media environment about what they are going to do. We are going to see this constant......BALONEY......about "will there be a 0.50% rate increase?" as the media topic of choice.

They need to WAKE UP and announce what they are going to do and stick with it for a while. The economy and the country needs actual and psychological surety right now. It does not help anyone if the FED is out there running around changing their views every other day. Just set a policy.....and stick with it for a while.....give everyone some confidence that you are not being driven by the wind of short term events.

 

Those top ten holdings that you posted oldmanram......looks like about 70% of my stock portfolio:

Apple
Google
Microsoft
Nvidia
Amazon
Home Depot
Tesla

The ONLY stocks missing are Honeywell, Nike, and Costco. As was said in part of the little article above:

"We’ve seen a shift back into these kinds of high-quality growth names, with strong balance sheets and market positions, and Amazon’s strength also reflects how strong the consumer continues to be,” Charles Schwab vice president of trading and derivatives Randy Frederick said.

As is obvious..... I prefer to be in these sorts of stocks all the time for the long term.

Lets see, I can invest in companies that are......HIGH QUALITY NAMES.......with.....STRONG BALANCE SHEETS AND MARKET POSITIONS........or I can invest in companies that are NOT. Seems like a no brainier to me. In fact.....these are the ONLY sort of businesses that I want to own since my intent is to hold them for years.....not days, weeks, or months.

 

Got to go.....carpenters are here to trim out some windows and finish my crown molding. We are tired of the projects that we have been doing. At least we are now down to the final items........and.......we will be done with our five year project list.

In the modern world.......I have to educate myself as to how to do every job the right way.....so I can make sure it gets done properly. I dont have the skills to actually do the work....but I can KNOW how it should be done and make sure it happens. I have to walk a fine line between subtly overseeing.........but...... NOT micromanaging the workers and driving them crazy.

 

Well I got through the day with the carpenters.......one day down.....two to go.

AND......the streak continues for the markets. At some point it might be safe to declare it a recovery. I did well today and was of course GREEN. I also got in a good beat on the SP500 by 0.81%.

No time to post more at the moment since I leave for a show in 35 minutes.

 

A stellar open today for the markets. Big time green.

I believe all the averages have been in the red for this entire year so far. SO.....here we are coming up to the end of the first three months and we have a chance to either get one of more of the averages green for the first time this year......or.....at least get close. Another lesson in simply holding through the down times in the markets......even if I am jumping the gun a little bit.

 

Here is the economic data that no one will care about.

US job openings inch lower to reach 11.266 million in February

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jolts-us-job-openings-labor-department-february-2022-140219238.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. job openings edged lower last month to retreat only modestly from a record high, and vacancies still far outpaced new hires as employers struggled to bring back more sidelined workers.

Job openings totaled 11.266 million in February,the Labor Department said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This came after job openings came in at 11.283 million in January, according to the Labor Department's revised figure. Consensus economists were looking for 11.000 million job openings last month, according to Bloomberg data.

Though vacancies decreased in the latest survey, the data have been volatile and have yet to show a sustainable trend lower. Openings hit a high of 11.4 million in December — which marked a record in data going back to 2001. And the discrepancy between new hires and job openings has also remained wide, with hires rising by 263,000 to reach 6.7 million in February.

Some of the largest increases in job openings were in the arts and entertainment industries, where vacancies rose by 32,000. Education services and federal government job openings each also increased by more than 20,000 last month. Hires, meanwhile, were seen notably in construction with an increase of 75,000.

Quits, or voluntary departures, have also remained elevated. These were little changed at 4.4 million in February. And the quits rate — a proxy for worker leverage, with a higher figure signaling workers' confidence in finding another job after leaving their current one — rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% in February. That was still well above the 2.3% average throughout 2019.
Labor scarcities have been one of the key supply-side concerns impacting the U.S. economy and have contributed to inflationary pressures as employers raise wages to compete for the available pool of talent. And in many cases, even higher compensation has not incentivized workers to return en masse. According to a study from McKinsey earlier this month, of nearly 600 workers surveyed who voluntarily left their roles without another job planned, 44% said they had "little to no interest" in rejoining the traditional labor force within six months.

Current labor market conditions have, in turn, informed the Federal Reserve's resolve to focus primarily on its price stability mandate — in this case, bringing down inflation — instead of positioning monetary policy to maximize employment in an already tight labor market.

"By many measures, the labor market is extremely tight, significantly tighter than the very strong job market just before the pandemic," Powell said in public remarks last week. "There are far more job openings going unfilled today than before the pandemic, despite today's unemployment rate being higher."

Powell also acknowledged, however, that the Fed's monetary policy tools like interest rate hikes could not improve labor supplies in the near-term. However, these would instead work to moderate demand growth, "thereby facilitating continued, sustainable increases in employment and wages," he said.

Meanwhile, other economists suggested that labor supply and demand imbalances are likely to improve to a degree on their own in time, as pandemic-era factors continue to unwind.

"Labor shortages that have contributed to gains in wages are likely to diminish at the margin on a better health backdrop and some normalization of caregiving activities," Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note Tuesday. "Employment in child day care has increased over the past six months, and employment in nursing and residential care facilities has increased over the past three. Even so, levels are still well below where they were prior to the pandemic."

Other new economic data later this week are expected to further reaffirm that gradual improvements in employment have been taking place this year, even as the labor market remains hot compared to pre-pandemic standards.

On Friday, the Labor Department will release its latest monthly jobs report for March, offering some of the most closely watched metrics of the labor market's strength. Consensus economists expect the report to show nearly half a million non-farm payrolls returned in March as the unemployment rate improved by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7% — a new pandemic-era low.

The March jobs report is set for release Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET".

MY COMMENT

We move very slowly forward....step by step. It is just going to take time to get employment back to some level of normal. I think we are STILL at least a year away from any sort of normal economy and possible 18 months. It is just going to take time. It is a hot market for employees right now.....they are in big demand. BUT.....it will end.