The Long Term Investor

I am starting to FEEL some small amount of CAPITULATION in the markets starting now. We probably have a long way to go.....but.....some people are starting to have a little bit of nagging doubt creep in. When MOST of the SENTIMENT gets negative we will be near the bottom......we are not there yet.

 

I remain....unconcerned with inflation. Primarily because it is the disrupted economy and the supply/demand issues causing it. AND....it has been worse in the past......much worse......during my investing lifetime.

When inflation was even worse

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/when-inflation-was-even-worse-212636275.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The headlines about inflation in 2022 report that we have the biggest jump in prices since the early 1980s. So what exactly was going on back then?

I dug out inflation data from the last great run-up in prices, in the 1970s and early 1980s, to see what was similar to what we’re experiencing now, and what was different. The inflationary slog of the 1970s was the worst bout of price hikes in modern times. It began in the 1960s, with a flood of government spending on the new Great Society programs and the Vietnam war under President Lyndon Johnson. Federal Reserve policy under President Nixon in the 1970s was too loose for too long, adding to inflationary pressures. Then came a series of energy shocks that made a bad situation worse.

The highest level of inflation since World War II came in March 1980, when the annual increase in the consumer price index was 14.8%. Inflation is high now, at 8.5%, but far from those record readings. The last time it was that high was in December 1981, when inflation was finally on its way down, for good. But that was after a prolonged period of consumer pain that coincided with three recessions and drove President Jimmy Carter from office after one term.

Then, as now, the biggest price hikes involved energy. In fact, energy inflation 42 years ago was worse than it is now. The 12-month increase in gas prices in 1982 was 68%. Today, it’s a mere 48%. The cost of household energy for heat and electricity was up 27% in 1980, compared with 15% today. Russia’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent sanctions on the Russian economy, have contributed to energy inflation today. But there’s nothing new about energy shocks.

In the 1970s, external shocks included the 1973 OPEC oil embargo related to the Yom Kippur war and the 1979 Iranian revolution. Then, in 1980, the eight-year Iran-Iraq war began. From 1970 to 1980, the price of oil more than quintupled. The average pump price jumped from $0.36 per gallon in 1970—$2.74 today—to $1.19 per gallon in 1980, which would be $4.40 today. In 1973, Commerce Secretary Peter Peterson declared, “the era of low-cost energy is almost dead.”

Energy costs, however, may have been more painful 42 years ago than they are now. A typical vehicle in 1980 averaged 16 miles per gallon of gas. Average fuel economy today is about 25.7 MPG. A typical driver logging 12,000 miles at $4.40 per gallon would spend about $3,300 in 1980, in today’s dollars. If gas cost the same today, in real dollars, the same driver would pay $2,054. Efficiency improvements alone would save $1,246 per year, everything else being the same.

There are a couple of big differences between then and now. Another huge source of inflation these days is new and used cars, though those price hikes have started to moderate. That’s largely due to a shortage of microprocessors resulting from one-time distortions relating to the COVID pandemic. In 1980, the cost of new vehicles rose by far less than the overall inflation rate, and there was no increase at all in the cost of used vehicles. That compares with double-digit increases in the cost of both so far in 2022.

We’ve also seen bigger increases in the cost of food, furniture and appliances than in 1980. Again, that is probably because of supply-chain disruptions relating to COVID. Back then, the cost of housing and rent was rising faster than it is now, mostly because interest rates were spiking.

Inflation began to fall fast in the early 1980s, as new Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker began an aggressive series of interest-rate hikes. The Fed this year has finally started hiking rates, hoping, once again, to tame inflation. As Fed officials surely know, however, Volcker’s rate hikes caused another recession that began in 1981. Prosperity finally returned a few years later, but that long bout of inflation punished consumers and politicians, both, in ways nobody would want to repeat today."

MY COMMENT

What I lived through back in the old-days.....was way worse than anything we are experiencing now. AND......NO......this is not one of those walking 15 miles through the snow to school....memories. Of course.....now....the MEDIA is way more insane than back than.......and that has a lot to do with the mood and feelings that people have now.

I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

This week is done......we move on into the FUTURE next week......with a new set of EARNINGS REPORTS.....as well as.....all the same old issues that we have been seeing for the past SIX MONTHS. Sooner or later.....probably about 4-8 months later......investors are going to say....."who cares"..... to the current crop of issues and move on.

REMEMBER......especially if you are a young or new investor.....we are way past due for a negative year. From 2009 to today there has ONLY been a SINGLE DOWN YEAR in the SP500. That one year was in 2018 when the SP500 lost (-4.52%).

EVERY other year from......and including......2009 to 2021 has been total return POSITIVE. That is a HUGE HISTORIC run up for stocks and funds. Those of us that have been fully invested over that time.......have a HUGE CUSHION to ride out a down year once in a while. Add in the compounding of the returns over that time and you have the reason that.......to borrow a phrase......."Frankly my dear, I dont give a damn.

 

SO......lets go out there and have a great three day EASTER weekend. We should all be THANKFUL for all that we have earned and been given in life.

I have a show Saturday at one of my favorite venues.....that is my focus at the moment........a large appreciative audience......at a venue with great management that appreciates what we do.......and.....the bonus of being paid well to be there.....especially at my age......72. What more could I ask for.

 

Very smart.....duckleberry.

Eighteen months is short term in the stock markets. Someone investing for that time period......"might"....make 10-15% if they are lucky. But with that short time span and a definite end date when you will have to sell to have the funds for the wedding.....it is just as likely that 10-15% of the money would be lost. AND.....that assumes an investment in a broad index or similar investment. Put that money in a few individual stocks and if the worst happens you might lose 10-25% of the money in 18 months.......depending on the volatility of the stocks selected.

This is exactly the reason that when I retired early.....I maintained 5 years worth of liquid money in CD's or money market. As time went by I reduced it to three years of money in cash, CD's or money market fund. I considered a time span of 3 years or less as short term money that I was not willing to expose to the markets.

 

We start a new week tomorrow with EARNINGS continuing to build up over the coming weeks.

Netflix, Tesla earnings: What to know in markets this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netf...t-to-know-in-markets-this-week-154106070.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"This week, earnings season is set to ramp up, offering investors a fresh set of data on the strength of corporate profits in the face of elevated inflationary pressure.

Two of the major names reporting this week will include Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA), offering an early look at how some of the mega-cap technology companies performed in the early part of the year.

The other names set to report this week will span a range of industries, broadening out from last week's bank-dominated results. Companies including United Airlines (UAL), American Express (AXP), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) are each on deck to report in the coming days.

For earnings season so far, results have been mixed, albeit heavily skewed toward the slew of financial names that reported last week including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS). About 7% of S&P 500 index components have reported actual Q1 results so far, and 77% of these have topped Wall Street's earnings per share (EPS) estimates, matching the five-year average percentage, according to data from FactSet. The estimated earnings growth rate for the index currently stands at 5.1%, which if carried through the rest of the season would mark the lowest earnings growth rate for the index since the fourth quarter of 2020.

Netflix earnings
Netflix is set to report results on Tuesday, with investors closely watching for further signs of a slowdown in the streaming giant's growth after a pandemic-era surge in subscriber numbers.

Analysts' consensus estimates are looking for Netflix to have added about 2.51 million subscribers for the first quarter, which would mark the least since the second quarter of 2021. This would bring Netflix's total subscribers to just under 225 million. In the same quarter last year, subscribers grew by nearly 4 million.

Though Netflix has already seen subscriber growth slow sharply from a pandemic-era peak, the streaming giant's exit from Russia in early March is also set to further contribute to the deceleration. The Los Gatos, Calif.-based company suspended operations in Russia on March 6 over the country's invasion of Ukraine, and since then, analysts further trimmed their subscriber estimates.

"We now expect paid net adds of 1.45MM, below guide of 2.5MM given Russia suspension (~1MM subs)," Cowen analyst John Blackledge wrote in a note last week. The firm also lowered its price target on Netflix to $590 a share from $600 previously, on account of the lower subscriber growth forecast.

Other analysts also suggested that Netflix's churn, or subscriber losses, could increase in the quarter after the company announced a price increase for subscribers in the U.S. and Canada in January. But revenue pulled from these price increases could also be used to help Netflix build out bigger content slates and drive growth in less saturated markets internationally, others pointed out.

"Netflix appears to be nearing a ceiling on UCAN (U.S. and Canada) subscribers, and is pulling new levers to lower churn," Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter wrote in a note. "Subscription price increases in the West should fuel additional content production and growth in other regions, and our bias is that cash flow will turn positive in 2022 and beyond, as management has guided. However, subscriber growth will likely occur primarily in less developed regions at lower subscription prices, with Western subscribers paying higher rates to fund new content."

"Content dumps, where all episodes of a new season are delivered at the same instant, will likely keep churn high, as price conscious consumers can swap out of Netflix and shift to a competitor service after viewing the content they desire," he added. "Sustainable profit growth should continue so long as Netflix is able to continue raising subscription prices, but competition may limit future price increases."

Overall, Netflix is expected to report GAAP earnings of $2.91 per share on revenue of $7.95 billion, which on the top line would represent just a 11% increase over last year. In the same quarter in 2021, revenue grew 24%.

Shares of Netflix have fallen 43% for the year-to-date in 2022, underperforming against the S&P 500's 7.8% drop over that same period.

Tesla earnings

Meanwhile, another major company set to report results this week will be Tesla.

The electric vehicle maker is scheduled to post its quarterly report Wednesday after market close. Ahead of these results, Tesla announced record deliveries of more than 310,000 during the first three months of this year. That represented a 68% jump over last year's deliveries. Tesla has sought to average 50% growth in annual vehicle deliveries.

Production, however, slipped slightly on a quarter-over-quarter basis, with output coming in at 305,407 for the first quarter compared to 305,840 during the final three months of 2021. Tesla, like many other automakers, has continued to grapple with lingering supply chain challenges and rising input costs, leading CEO Elon Musk to suggest that the company may begin mining its own lithium for batteries as metal prices soar.

"Right now Tesla has a high-class problem of demand outstripping supply with this issue now translating into ~5-6 month delays for Model Ys, some Model 3s in different parts of the globe," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note. "The key to alleviating these issues is centered around the key Giga openings in Austin and Berlin which will alleviate the bottlenecks of production for Tesla globally."

Just earlier this month, Tesla officially began delivering its first Texas-made vehicles from its new Austin Gigafactory. At Tesla's "Cyber Rodeo" launch party on April 7, Musk said the facility was aiming to begin building the Tesla Cybertruck starting in 2023 and has targeted making 500,000 units of the Model Y per year.

The newly made U.S. Gigafactory is set to be pivotal in helping Tesla further ramp production and help meet demand domestically, especially given snarls internationally as Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory closed for weeks due to a COVID outbreak in the region.

"We believe by the end of 2022 Tesla will have the run rate capacity for overall ~2 million units annually from roughly 1 million today," Ives added. "While the China zero COVID policy is causing shutdowns in Shanghai for Tesla (and others) and remains a worrying trend if it continues, seeing the forest through the trees with Austin and Berlin now live and ramping, Musk & Co. will continue to flex its distribution muscles in the EV landscape while many other automakers struggle to get things off the ground."

While Tesla shares have outperformed the S&P 500 for the year-to-date, the stock came under pressure on Thursday after Musk disclosed he made an offer to buy social media company Twitter (TWTR) for $54.20 per share, or about $43 billion in cash. Many have noted Musk would likely have to sell Tesla shares in order to finance the deal if it were to go through.

In Tesla's first-quarter results, Wall Street is looking for the company to post adjusted earnings of $2.27 per share on revenue of $17.85 billion, representing sales growth of 65%.

Economic calendar

• Monday: NAHB Housing Market Index, April (77 expected, 79 in March)
  
  
• Tuesday: Housing starts, March (1.745 million expected, 1.769 million in February); Building permits, March (1.830 million expected, 1.859 million in February)
  
  
• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended April 15 (-1.3% during prior week); Existing home sales, March (5.78 million expected, 6.02 million in February); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book
  
  
• Thursday: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook index, April (20.5 expected, 27.4 in March); Initial jobless claims, week ended April 16 (185,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended April 9 (1.475 million during prior week); Leading Index, March (0.3% expected, 0.3% in February)
  
  
• Friday: S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, April preliminary (57.8 expected, 58.8 in March); S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, April preliminary (58.1 expected, 58.0 in March); S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, April preliminary (57.7 in March)
  

Earnings calendar
Monday

Before market open: Synchrony Financial (SYF), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK), Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW)

After market close: JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)

Tuesday

Before market open: Fifth Third Bancorp. (FITB), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Halliburton (HAL), Truist Financial Corp. (TFC), Hasbro (HAS), Lockheed Martin (LMT)

After market close: Netflix (NFLX), IBM (IBM), First Horizon Corp. (FHN)

Wednesday

Before market open: Anthem (ANTM), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Baker Hughes (BKR), Procter & Gamble (PG), Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

After market close: CSX Corp. (CSX), United Airlines (UAL), Crown Castle International (CCI), Alcoa Corp. (AA), Equifax (EFX), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Tesla (TSLA), Tenet Healthcare (THC), Kinder Morgan (KMI)

Thursday

Before market open: Xerox (XRX), AT&T (T), Dow Inc. (DOW), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Spirit Airlines (SAVE), Blackstone (BX), Danaher (DHR), American Airlines (AAL), Pool Corp. (POOL), AutoNation (AN), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO), Philip Morris International (PM), Union Pacific (UNP),

After market close: Boston Beer Co. (SAM), Snap (SNAP)

Friday

Before market open: Verizon (VZ), Schlumberger (SLB), American Express (AXP), Kimberly-Clark (KMB)

After market close: No notable reports scheduled for release"

MY COMMENT

We will start to get more of a clue how earnings are going to pan out after this week. TESLA will be the BIG ONE for the week. Although.....what will really be important for the company will be the rest of the year as the Berlin and Austin plants ramp up to full production.

Companies that i think will give us a view of where the REAL economy is right now that report this week are......Johnson & Johnson, IBM, Lockheed, Procter & Gamble, AT&T, Phillip Morris, Tractor Supply, Tesla, and Netflix.

This week about 15% of the SP500 will have reported. EARNINGS seem t be going very nicely so far with about 7% having reported to date with 77% of these have topped Wall Street's earnings per share (EPS) estimates, matching the five-year average percentage. I am guessing that by the end of earnings we will be in the low 80% range for EPS beats. If so.....that will be another very STRONG earnings report for the markets to absorb.

I think it is likely that earnings will have some impact on the markets.....but....as usual lately.....they will be mostly ignored in favor of the short term DRAMATIC TOPICS that dominate the news lately.....inflation, jobs, interest rates, the FED, etc, etc, etc.

HAPPY EASTER.

 

The markets are lingering today with no clear direction. Trying to find a path forward.....as usual lately.

 

I like this data.......a positive indicator for long term investors.

Fewest Bulls Since 1992

https://allstarcharts.com/fewest-bulls-since-1992/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Individual investors with way too much exposure to growth stocks are not happy.


In fact, they’re the most pessimistic they’ve been in 30 years.

Last time individual investors were this bearish, Baby Got Back and Achy Breaky Heart were topping the music charts.



From extreme pessimism comes opportunity.


When individuals are positioned for a market crash, is that typically when market crashes occur?

I think we continue to look for stocks to buy.

And not the bag-holder type stocks that these individual investors clearly got stuck in, I’m talking about the leaders.

We want to own the leadership groups. That’s been working out very well for us.

I believe that will continue to work well as we work our way through Q2."

MY COMMENT

I am glad to see this sort of data. The more negativity and the more people sour on the markets and capitulate.....the closer we are to moving forward from this little correction that we are stuck in at the moment.

When we do decide to move forward......the BIG CAP GROWTH GIANTS......will lead the way.

 

Since it is TAX DAY I have to post something about the IRS.

Seven Tips To Help You Avoid A Tax Audit

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-...e/tax-audit-by-the-irs-tips-for-avoiding-one/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"A tax audit can be painful, scary and costly. Naturally, you should make every legit effort to avoid one. So here are tips from leading financial advisors about how to do just that.

The risk-reward trade-off favors taking every possible precaution. The average tax audit costs $3,500 to $10,000, according to one estimate. The hassle factor is huge. The IRS can hit you with up to 150 different penalties after an audit, one tax-prep website notes. You risk paying a penalty of 0.5% of what you owe every month. And you can end up owing 3% interest on unpaid penalties.

Further, it looks like the IRS is getting ready to reverse the trend of fewer audits in recent years. The tax agency not long ago said it is hiring 2,500 new auditors.

And the risk of getting ensnared in an audit does not end on Tax Day. The number of taxpayers still working on their returns because they got an extension is climbing. The number expected to use an extension for 2022 is 15.2 million, according to the latest IRS data. That's way up from the 11.6 million who got extensions for 2020 and the 13.6 million and counting who did so for 2021.

Tax Audit: How To Avoid One

Worse, the IRS has automated systems that flag suspicious returns. That means the IRS knows what it is looking for.

So, to minimize your odds of getting sucked into the black hole of an audit, apply these seven tips when they apply to you:

Make sure all of your numbers match. "Differences between what is reported on government Forms 1099 and what you report on your return is a sure-fire way for the IRS to have questions," said Matt Masterson, wealth advisor at RegentAtlantic. And questions can lead to audits.

Report cryptocurrency gains and losses. If you do not report digital currency gains, you're asking for trouble. "The sale or exchange of cryptocurrency works the same way that selling a stock does," said Angela Anderson, a certified public accountant with the JustAnswer.com Tax Chat. Cryptocurrency transactions are reported on the Schedule D and the Form 8949. These are the same forms used to report the sale of stocks, mutual funds and certain other capital assets as well.

Report cryptocurrency transactions other than sales. "Just spending your crypto can create a taxable event and result in a capital gain or loss," said Hayden Adams, director of tax and financial planning, Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Not all crypto transactions are reported to the IRS, but you still need to report those transactions on your return, even if a 1099 is not issued." Unreported crypto income can even raise criminal legal consequences, Adams says.

Don't Wave Red Flags At The IRS

Avoid waving red flags at the IRS when it comes to deductions. That means following established guidelines about what the IRS deems deductible. "Be careful when you name a deduction," said Tom Wheelwright, tax expert and author. For instance, don't call an event you attended a seminar if it was continuing education. "The IRS feels that seminars are not deductible," Wheelwright said. "There are very specific rules for when education is deductible. The most obvious of those rules is that it must be for continuing education for a current profession or business, not for a new profession or business."

Have documentation to explain big deductions. "If you have large deductions, keep good documentation to support them," Adams said. "When I was at the IRS, I saw some tax returns where people attached copies of their support, such as a letter from a charity stating your donation amount. This can at times avoid an audit." Adams worked for eight years at the IRS as a senior auditor for complex flow-through entities such as partnerships, S corporations and LLCs as well as high-net-worth individuals.

Don't Act Suspicious

Be specific about expenses. For one thing, whenever possible categorize expenses instead of lumping them under general expenses. "The IRS might think you're trying to bury (questionable) expenses if you lump them together rather than properly itemizing them," said Rachita Wadhwa, lead tax preparer and planner, Potentia Tax. "Minimize the use of an 'Other Expenses' category and itemize specific expenses like 'marketing' or 'Travel.' "

Avoid numbers that look doctored. Being specific about expenses also means avoiding the use of rounded numbers ending with a 0 or 5. Those make the IRS curious and cast doubts on the numbers' veracity, Wadhwa says."

MY COMMENT

LUCKILY.....many so called audits today are simply letters regarding some very specific item on a tax return. I suspect that CRYPTO will be a huge driver of IRS audits going forward. The elimination of many deductions and the new BIG standard deductions........along with all the required reporting........ have simplified many tax returns for individuals and reduced much audit risk. Business returns.....especially small business......will continue to be a fertile area for IRS audits. I know my return is much simpler to prepare now compared to 15-30 years ago.

 

The short term markets and traders today seem to be focused on the Ten Year yield and the FED. I have no doubt that the next FED move will be at 0.50%.

Stocks Waver With Bonds as Traders Mull Fed Moves: Markets Wrap

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-set-steady-open-china-215914116.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks swung between gains and losses in early trading and Treasuries were mixed on Monday as investors weighed prospects for faster policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 was little changed, after gaining as much as 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 reversed losses. Bank of America Corp. gained, joining a string of beats by big lenders such as Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc.

Treasury yields fluctuated as investors look forward to speeches by Fed policy makers this week for new clues on whether it will raise interest rates by a half point in May to curb price pressures. A jump in energy costs highlighted inflation concerns, as U.S. natural gas prices surged to the highest intraday level in more than 13 years. Oil climbed above $108 a barrel in New York.

In other market moves, Twitter Inc. rose after Elon Musk said the economic interests of the board are not aligned with shareholders. DiDi Global Inc. tumbled after saying it will hold an extraordinary general meeting to vote on delisting its shares from the New York Stock Exchange.

The pattern across markets suggests investors remain uncertain whether high inflation has peaked or not. Price pressures are being fanned by supply-chain snarls from China’s Covid restrictions and disruptions to commodity flows due to the war. Concern is growing that the U.S. economy faces a downturn as the Fed pivots toward aggressive policy tightening to contain the cost of living.

History suggests the Fed will face a difficult task in tightening policy to cool inflation without causing a U.S. recession, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. It put the odds of a contraction at about 35% over the next two years.

The positive effects from inflation on earnings growth for U.S. firms have peaked as rising costs trim their margins and price pressures caused by the Ukraine war hit consumers, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.

Chinese economic data were mixed, adding to investor concerns about its stalled recovery. China cut the reserve requirement ratio on Friday but refrained from lowering interest rates in a cautious approach to policy easing, while Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda described its retreat as very rapid.

In Shanghai, officials reported the first deaths from a surging Covid-19 outbreak. The city has also published plans to resume production after a prolonged lockdown, recommending businesses adopt so-called closed-loop management, where workers live on-site and are tested regularly.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials said the remaining defenders of Mariupol are encircled by Russian forces but have not surrendered the strategically important port city, as a deadly strike was reported in Lviv near the Polish border. Ukrainian officials will be in Washington for this week’s meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to seek financial support.

What to watch this week:

• Earnings include American Express, Bank of New York Mellon, China Telecom, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Tesla
  
  
• Easter Monday market closures in the U.K., much of Europe
  
  
• IMF/World Bank spring meetings start, Monday
  
  
• St. Louis Fed President James Bullard to speak, Monday
  
  
• Chicago Fed President Charles Evans to speak, Tuesday
  
  
• EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
  
  
• China loan prime rates, Wednesday
  
  
• Federal Reserve Beige Book, Wednesday
  
  
• French presidential election debate, Wednesday
  
  
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, due to speak, Wednesday
  
  
• Euro zone CPI, U.S. initial jobless claims, Thursday
  
  
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde discuss global economy at IMF event, Thursday
  
  
• Manufacturing PMIs: Euro zone, France, Germany, U.K, Friday
  
  
• Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey to speak, Friday"
  

MY COMMENT

See that list above? Look at how many FED people will be blathering to the media this week. There will be at least FIVE speaking events that are scheduled for the FED this week. That is INSANITY........but unfortunately......the way it is at the moment.

 

HERE is a pretty good list of the significant earnings that will happen this week.

Tesla earnings, Tax Day, Fed's Beige Book top week ahead
Investors will also have their first chance to react to Twitter's 'poison pill' against Elon Musk

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/tesla-earnings-tax-day-existing-home-sales-week-ahead

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

After enjoying the holiday weekend, investors are in for another busy week with a slew of big name earnings and key housing data on the docket.

On Monday, investors will also have their first chance to react to news over the weekend that Twitter has adopted a limited duration shareholder rights plan, commonly referred to as a ‘poison pill’ as it looks to prevent a takeover by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has offered to take the social media giant private for $54.20 per share.

FOX Business takes a look at the upcoming events that are likely to move financial markets in the coming days.

Monday 4/18

Kicking off the week for earnings will be Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Charles Schwab and Synchrony Financial before the market open and JB Hunt Transportation Services after the bell.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORP. 37.57 -1.25 -3.22%
BK THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP. 47.29 -1.05 -2.17%
SCHW THE CHARLES SCHWAB CORP. 82.75 -1.08 -1.29%
SYF SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL 37.70 +0.23 +0.61%
JBHT J.B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES INC. 172.01 +0.03 +0.02%

Meanwhile, the NAHB housing market index will be in focus for economic data on Monday. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard will also speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Council on Foreign Relations' virtual C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics.

Monday marks the federal deadline for most Americans to file their taxes and the final day to make an IRA contribution.

In addition, Costco will end special operating hours for seniors, healthcare workers and first responders, American Airlines will resume on-board liquor sales and Disney will bring back character meet and greets at its theme parks. Target will start its annual car seat trade-in program, which runs through April 30, and the International Monetary Fund and World Bank will begin their 2022 spring meetings, which run through April 24.

Tuesday 4/19

The earnings parade will continue on Tuesday with Hasbro, Johnson & Johnson and Lockheed Martin before the market open and IBM, Interactive Brokers Group and Netflix after the bell.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
HAS HASBRO INC. 85.22 +1.42 +1.69%
JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON 179.90 -0.76 -0.42%
LMT LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP. 467.66 -1.53 -0.33%
IBM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP. 126.56 +0.42 +0.33%
IBKR INTERACTIVE BROKERS GROUP INC. 65.29 -0.38 -0.58%
NFLX NETFLIX INC. 341.13 -9.30 -2.65%

As for economic data, investors will be watching building permits and housing starts. Chicago Fed president Charles Evans will also speak before the Economic Club of New York on current economic events and monetary policy.

Wednesday 4/20

Leading Wednesday's earnings will be Abbott Labs, Anthem, M&T Bank, Nasdaq Inc. and Procter & Gamble before the market open and Alcoa, Equifax, Sleep Number, Tenet Healthcare, Tesla and United Airlines.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES 117.69 -1.79 -1.50%
ANTM ANTHEM INC. 516.72 +4.51 +0.88%
MTB M&T BANK CORP. 159.56 -0.15 -0.09%
NDAQ NASDAQ INC. 178.55 -2.84 -1.57%
PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO. 158.57 -0.89 -0.56%
TSLA TESLA INC. 985.00 -37.37 -3.66%
UAL UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS INC. 45.13 -0.01 -0.02%

Economic data on the docket for Wednesday will be the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, existing home sales, weekly mortgage applications and the Energy Information Administration's weekly crude stocks.

Chicago Fed president Charles Evans will speak in person at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Macro Week 2022 on current economic events and monetary and San Francisco Fed President will speak before the Center for Business and Economic Research "CBER Mid-Year Outlook".

Also on Wednesday, Meta Platforms is expected to make an announcement about its Oculus Quest 2 Pro headset during the Quest Gaming showcase. AMD will also release its fastest-ever gaming chip.

In addition, Bob Marley's son Rohan will launch a CBD brand, South Carolina Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace will speak at the Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference and the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on improving fire safety in federally assisted housing.

Thursday 4/21

Thursday will mark the busiest day for earnings with Alaska Air Group, American Airlines, AT&T, AutoNation, Blackstone, Danaher, Philip Morris, Quest Diagnostics and Union Pacific among the companies reporting before the market open.


Ticker Security Last Change Change %
ALK ALASKA AIR GROUP INC. 57.11 +0.87 +1.55%
AAL AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC. 19.00 +0.05 +0.26%
T AT&T INC. 19.54 +0.12 +0.62%
AN AUTONATION INC. 101.46 +1.00 +1.00%
BX BLACKSTONE 112.98 -3.46 -2.97%
DHR DANAHER CORP. 276.98 -6.74 -2.38%
PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC. 101.77 +0.57 +0.56%
DGX QUEST DIAGNOSTICS INC. 135.92 -1.13 -0.82%
UNP UNION PACIFIC CORP. 246.21 +1.58 +0.65%


Meanwhile, Snap and PPG Industries will be among the companies taking the earnings spotlight after the bell.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
SNAP SNAP INC. 33.19 -1.49 -4.30%
PPG PPG INDUSTRIES INC. 128.27 -2.32 -1.78%

Economic data on Thursday will include the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators and the latest in initial and continuing jobless claims. Other notable events include the launches of Fidelity's new crypto and metaverse ETFs and SpaceX's Crew-4 mission.

Friday 4/22

Wrapping up the week will be earnings from American Express, Kimberly-Clark, Schlumberger and Verizon before the market open. Investors will also take in the S&P Global flash Markit manufacturing and services PMIs.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO. 181.16 +1.57 +0.87%
KMB KIMBERLY-CLARK CORP. 126.42 +0.03 +0.02%
SLB SCHLUMBERGER NV 43.25 +0.68 +1.60%
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC. 53.83 -0.31 -0.57%

In addition, Walmart will permanently close stores in Louisville, Kentucky and Forest Park, Ohio and Lululemon will expand its trade-in and resale program to all of its stores in the United States."

MY COMMENT

I love earnings time. We get real data that has an actual relationship to the businesses that we own. It is nice to get real numbers compared to the day to day DRAMA that usually drives the markets. We will be getting.....hot and heavy.....into earnings over the next month or so.

 

Elon Musk is all over the media today with his comments about Twitter. Good for him. A breath of fresh air. I especially LOVE this little comment from Musk.

Musk says Twitter board will be paid nothing if he acquires the company

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/18/mus...-paid-nothing-if-he-acquires-the-company.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content)

"Key Points

• Elon Musk said Twitter’s board of directors wouldn’t receive compensation for serving if he were to take over the social media company.
• “Board salary will be $0 if my bid succeeds, so that’s ~$3M/year saved right there,” Musk said in a tweet.

Elon Musk said Monday that Twitter’s board of directors won’t be compensated for serving if he acquires the company.

“Board salary will be $0 if my bid succeeds, so that’s ~$3M/year saved right there,” Musk said in a tweet.

It’s not clear who would be appointed to serve the board of a Musk-owned Twitter. Currently, Twitter spends about $2.9 million in cash and stock awards to board members, according to a filing with the SEC. Executives do not receive additional compensation for their seats, so that does not include payments for CEO Parag Agrawal and former chief Jack Dorsey.

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO has been on a tear to acquire Twitter. After building up more than 9% in stock, Musk offered to buy Twitter in a deal valued at about $43 billion. In response, Twitter adopted a limited duration shareholder rights plan, often referred to as a “poison pill,” in an effort to fend off a potential hostile takeover. Musk may also be considering a potential tender offer to Twitter shareholders to take control of the company.

The outspoken executive has argued Twitter needs to be “transformed” into a private company so it can become a forum for free speech. He’s also said that Twitter’s board members’ interests “are simply not aligned with shareholders” and that the board “owns almost no shares” of the company."

MY COMMENT

It is so nice to see someone stand up to the CLIQUE of ELITES that control big business board seats and take care of each other. They appoint each other to boards, give each other awards and medals........and....many of them are unqualified and/or incompetent. They just happen to have......POWER.

 

Also nice to see the markets green across the board at the moment.......even if the level of green is MILD.

 

I am in the green at this moment as we head to the close less than an hour away. Five stocks UP and five stocks DOWN. By green I mean.......less than $500.

 

My account was LURCHING all over the place for the last hour of the day. In the end.....it ended about the way it started the last hour.......down by less than $500. So...in the red but barely. I got beat by the SP500 by 0.07% today.

All in all a day that in the end went nowhere.......up or down. Lets just call it a.....consolidation day........and move on to tomorrow.

NEVER MIND.

 

Sounds good to me. BUT.....of course......we are on Social Security.

Social Security recipients could see biggest cost-of-living raise since 1981
Social Security beneficiaries could see an 8.9% increase in their monthly checks next year

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/social-security-recipients-cost-of-living-raise-inflation

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Social Security recipients are on track to receive the biggest cost-of-living raise in four decades as sky-high inflation rapidly diminishes the buying power of retired Americans.

The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan group that focuses on issues relating to older Americans, estimated the adjustment could be as high as 8.9%, based on March inflation data, which showed that consumer prices soared 8.5% from the previous year, the fastest year-over-year jump since December 1981.

The annual Social Security change is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or the CPI-W, which jumped 9.4% over the past year.

"I have never seen my estimates as high as what I'm seeing right now," Mary Johnson, a Social Security analyst for the Senior Citizens League, told FOX Business. "The 8.9% would be the highest since 1981."


Should Social Security beneficiaries see an 8.9% increase to their monthly checks next year, it would mark the steepest annual adjustment since 1981, when recipients saw an 11.2% bump. The Senior Citizens League previously predicted the COLA for 2023 could be 7.6%.

The Social Security Administration will release the final adjustment percentage in October.

The estimated figure could still be subject to change and ultimately hinges on whether inflation has peaked or will continue to rise. Several economists said there are signs that inflation may be subsiding, with a surge in gas price accounting for much of the jump in prices last month. Excluding gas and food, which are more volatile measurements, so-called core inflation actually cooled slightly between February and March.

However, other economists have noted that the outlook remains uncertain as volatile things like the Russian war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic threaten to further roil global markets.

The average benefit in 2022 jumped by 5.9%, which amounted to a monthly increase of $92 for the average retired American, bringing the full amount to $1,657, the Social Security Administration announced last year. But soaring inflation has already eroded the entirety of the increase, according to calculations by the Senior Citizens League.

At the end of April, the total shortfall for an average benefit was $162.60.

"Inflation means lower savings and for people who don’t have enough savings, it can mean higher debt," Johnson said. "And the interest with rising rates, especially on consumer credit card debt, can be very costly for people living on fixed income and hard to manage when they’re in retirement."

Since 2000, Social Security benefits have lost roughly 30% of their purchasing power due to inadequate adjustments that underestimate inflation and rising health care costs, according to the Senior Citizens League.

The group has pushed Congress to adopt legislation that would index the adjustment to inflation specifically for seniors, such as the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, or the CPI-E. That index specifically tracks the spending of households with people aged 62 and older."

MY COMMENT

I have been thinking about this lately......but......this is the first article that I have seen. I expect that we will see these articles off and on for the next five months. The increase in benefits will be calculated on the inflation data for July, August, and September and released in early October.

With the jump of 5.9% for 2022 and.....lets say.......8% for next year we would have a 14% increase in benefits in just two years. Now....that is some REAL MONEY.