Here is a little article on the general business environment in the USA. A Broad Look at Corporate America’s Comments on the Economy So far, S&P 500 execs see resilient US consumers https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...at-corporate-americas-comments-on-the-economy (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Editors’ Note: MarketMinder does not make individual security recommendations. The below merely illustrate a broader theme we wish to highlight. S&P 500 Q1 2022 earnings season is underway, and while it is early days, the results are encouraging. With 135 companies reporting, earnings are up 7.2% y/y and revenues 11.6%. Now, given some COVID restrictions remained in place a year ago, it is fair to say these figures got a small boost from the base effect (meaning, a depressed year-over-year comparison). But more interesting to us is just how optimistic so many businesses are about American consumers right now. While conventional wisdom would have high inflation denting consumer demand, businesses broadly don’t report seeing that. Don’t take our word for it, though. Here, courtesy of FactSet’s wonderful repository of earnings conference call transcripts, are some observations from America’s corporate executives. First, though, let us reiterate our editors’ note above. We highlight the calls below not because we mean to issue security recommendations—we don’t, ever—but because we find the comments telling from a macroeconomic standpoint. When the entire world seemingly fears inflation causing a US or global recession, first-hand observations from the folks with their proverbial boots on the ground can help you put sentiment in perspective. After all, markets move on the gap between reality and expectations. UPS – April 26, 2022 “So we don’t have direct insight to the consumer behavior. It’s more from what we’re hearing from our customers who are telling us there has been a bit of a shift from goods to services, and you’re probably experiencing that if you’d gone on vacation. So it seems like the hotels are full, the planes are full, and people are going out to eat, and, gosh, I was in Washington, D.C. last week and the bar was hopping at midnight, so people are spending money differently than they would.” American Express – April 22, 2022 “[Travel & Entertainment] T&E spending did show a dip in January and early February due to the Omicron variant but spending then rebounded tremendously, reflecting pent-up travel demand and essentially reached 2019 levels for the first time since the start of the pandemic in the month of March. And this kind of T&E spending growth has continued right into early April.” Snap-on – April 21, 2022 “Spending on vehicle maintenance and repair is up, and technicians are earning more than ever. They’ve been working, performing essential tasks, making a nice living. They’re undaunted by the turbulence and they are optimistic about the future of their profession, about the outlook of individual transportation and about the greater need for their skills as the vehicle part changes with new technology.” Tractor Supply – April 21, 2022 “As it relates to the economy, so far the consumer has shown real strength and their ability to kind of navigate the inflation. And I think you’re hearing that today in our earnings call but also hearing it in many other earnings calls that have come out over the last week and there's a variety of reasons for that. I mean you’ve had strong wage growth across the country. You’ve got $2 trillion-plus of pent-up savings that people are starting to tap into now and you can see that in savings rate. You do see a little bit of credit card usage up. But I mean if you dig into that what you’re seeing is people using their credit cards and then tapping into their savings to pay those down with default rates not yet moving up. I think the consumer is navigating this very well and any talk of recession at this point is premature.” Equifax – April 21, 2022 “I don’t know how to talk about what environment this is. It’s certainly not a recession.” American Airlines – April 21, 2022 “But we’re so far encouraged by what we see right now in two ways. First, demand continues to grow and grow at a meaningful pace. How long-lasting it is remains to be seen but if we’ve learned anything in the last 20 or 24 months, we can adjust [to] just about anything and do it pretty quickly. And the other thing which is really encouraging is frankly spending by our co-branded credit cards. That is one where throughout the pandemic even though airline revenues fell, our co-branded revenues never fell nearly to the same degree and indeed we’re encouraged right now because our acquisitions are higher than before and our spend on the card is keeping pace with inflation. Indeed, on our card with Barclays, our spend is growing at a greater rate than inflation. So we are encouraged by that. There’s clearly a level of demand for our product and future anticipation of travel which is very promising, and we'll just see how it plays out.” Dow Chemical – April 21, 2022 “Despite elevated inflation, consumer spending continues to grow and balance sheets remain healthy with household debt service levels at some of the lowest levels in the last 30 years. Industrial activity also remains robust with Global Manufacturing PMI continuing to point toward expansion.” CSX – April 20, 2022 “Current demand remains strong across most merchandise markets, with shippers prioritizing environmental benefits of rail and pursuing lower cost options to offset inflation. The ongoing semiconductor shortage impacted automotive volumes through the quarter. However, we did see sequential improvement as consumer demand remains strong with dealer inventory levels low.” Procter & Gamble – April 20, 2022 “Demand for our best-performing premium-priced offerings remains strong, as do our market share trends. (Responding to a question about whether rising living costs were causing people to shift to low-end, cheaper products): Look, we’re not seeing it. We’ve seen consumers trade into [our] brands and trade up within [our] brand portfolio throughout the pandemic. Every quarter this fiscal year, we’ve seen consumers continue to trade up within [our] brand portfolio into higher premium propositions across most categories. That’s the mix effect you’ve seen on the gross margin and the positive mix effect on sales. So, we continue to see consumers stay within [our brand] portfolio and many consumers actually trading up within [our brand] portfolio as they see the benefit of those higher premium propositions.” Prologis – April 19, 2022 “[Demand for logistics in real estate is] a lot broader than it used to be – very, very broad, too broad. So, we see our customers with their front foot forward and taking up more space. And that gives us comfort that we’re not facing a recessionary environment, at least not as it pertains to our business. Now, again, fuel costs are up. That’s taken a big bite out of the consumers’ pocket. There’s a war going on. We’re going to have midterm elections now soon. I mean, there are all kinds of imponderables. But so far, it hasn't translated into conservative behavior by our customers.” Citizens Financial – April 19, 2022 “Credit metrics are all excellent. And so far, both our consumer and corporate customers are navigating well through the current challenges. … So, we feel really confident around the outlook. The state of credit and consumer [delinquencies] is at the lowest levels that’s ever been. And we continue to sort of beat to the positive almost every month on what we’re seeing on [net charge-offs] NCOs. So, I feel really good. And I think – and when you look at the other side of the ledger for the average consumer, they’re still showing a lot of excess liquidity. The money in consumer checking accounts are still at all-time highs, really hasn’t moved down. While we’re seeing a lot of velocity in customers using credit cards and spending and paying for things, it’s not adding to outstanding [credit balances].” Bank of America – April 18, 2022 “So, could a slowdown in the economy happen? Perhaps. But right now, the size of the economy is bigger than pre-pandemic levels, consumer spending remains strong, unemployment is low and wages are rising. … From our card spend data, we have seen a strong recovery in travel, entertainment and restaurant spending. In the upper right, you can see that. By the way, even with fuel costs up 40% or more from last year, fuel represents about 6% of overall debit and credit card spending and a lot less of overall spending, as cards you can see in the lower left is 21% of all spending. Importantly, despite March of last year including the stimulus bonus, we saw the spending in the month of March 2022 on a comparable basis to 2021 13% higher by dollar volume, and we saw a 7.4% increase in the number of transactions. So, both dollar volumes and numbers of transactions rose nicely. … The consumers are sitting on lots of cash. Why is this true? Well, you know high wage growth, high savings by limited enabled spending, but what it means is there’s a long tail to consumer spend growth. And in April through the first two weeks, spending is growing even faster at 18% over April of 2021.” Citigroup – April 14, 2022 “In US Personal Banking, we continue to see signs of how healthy and resilient the consumer is through our cost of credit and their payment rates. We see good engagement through key drivers such as card loans and spend volume growth. … When you look at the performance of our consumer customers, whether you're looking at the [non-conforming loan] NCL rate and where that’s trending, or you look at the 90-day delinquency and where that’s trending, still very strong. … I am more positive around the US economy and the US consumer than really any other geographies around the world, and that helps with so much momentum in the labor market. We’re seeing still quite a bit of excess liquidity sitting there in the back pocket of our consumers and very healthy balance sheets.” Wells Fargo – April 14, 2022 “March was the eighth straight month in which inflation outpaced income with lower income consumers being most impacted by rising energy and food prices. That said, higher deposit balances and rising wages have thus far allowed consumers to weather these headwinds. We continued to see median deposit balances above pre-pandemic levels, up approximately 25% compared to 2020, but down from the highs observed in 2021. Consumer credit card spend remained strong, up 33% from a year ago. All spending categories were up with the highest growth in travel, entertainment, fuel and dining. After strong growth in the first quarter of 2021 driven by stimulus payments, debit card spending increased 6% in the first quarter of 2022. Discretionary spending remained strong with entertainment up 39% and travel up 29% from a year ago. The increase in energy prices was reflected in a 27% increase in fuel spending.” US Bancorp – April 14, 2022 “We do continue to expect in the [corporate payment systems] CPS business that travel and entertainment is going to continue to strengthen, and I think that that is a tailwind or an opportunity for us as we move forward. I would expect that there’s probably going to be a shift to some extent from what I would call durable goods that people were spending their dollars on in the past to more service-oriented sort of activities. But in terms of the overall level of spend, I feel like that will continue at least for some period of time. … And I think there’s a lot more conversation around [business risks] in terms of whether or not there will be recessionary sort of pressures 12 to 18 months out. I would start by just saying when we end up looking at the economic outlook right now and kind of what we’re seeing, we continue to see a pretty robust environment.” Delta Airlines – April 13, 2022 “There are clear signs of pent-up demand for travel and experiences as consumers’ spending shifts from goods to services and experiences, travel restrictions lift, and business travelers continue to return to the skies.” JPMorgan Chase – April 13, 2022 “The consumer has money. They pay down credit card debt. Confidence isn’t high, but the fact that they have money, they’re spending their money, they have $2 trillion still in [their] savings and checking accounts. Businesses are in good shape. Home prices are up. Credit is extraordinarily good. So you have this, that’s one factor. That’s going to continue in the second quarter, third quarter. And after that, it’s hard to predict.” Parting Thoughts Now, all of the above reflects what just happened, which isn’t predictive. And we are sure that one could have found some examples of business leaders worried about the state of the economy. Nor are these or any business leaders’ forecasts guaranteed to come true. But in a quarter where the inflation rate finished above 8%, that so many businesses across multiple sectors are reporting robust consumer demand seems like a very good sign that for the time being, American consumers are resilient. Not to dismiss the pain that higher prices pose, but markets tend to be coldhearted to such things. They care about the gap between sentiment and reality, and for now, there is a lot of evidence that consumers are outperforming dreary expectations." MY COMMENT The state of the business environment......outside of finding workers......is amazing right now. People are spending money like drunken sailors. At the same time......the media, the FED, and stock traders and speculators.......are doing all they can to bad-mouth the economy. It is hard for the day to day stock markets to cut through all the constant NEGATIVITY. BUT.....if you look at the FACTS and BUSINESS FUNDAMENTALS and EARNINGS.......we are doing very nicely.....at this moment. Of course......as usual.......the outlook for long term investors is golden as usual. That assumes that you stay invested during all the negativity and avoid the temptation to bail out of the markets and try to market time (a futile and impossible task).
Kind of a do-nothing day for me today. BUT....at least I was slightly in the GREEN for the day. I had five stocks UP and five stocks DOWN. I got beat by the SP500 by.....0.23% for the day. We head into tomorrow with a TINY bit of positive momentum. META will post earnings soon today and that will set part of the tone for tomorrow. We also have two of the GIANT earnings reports tomorrow after the bell......AMAZON and APPLE.
I have ZERO interest in owning META....but their earnings will potentially be a market driver tomorrow. Facebook shares spike on better-than-expected quarterly earnings https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/meta-fb-q1-2022-earnings.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Shares of Facebook parent Meta jumped in extended trading on Wednesday after the company reported earnings that topped estimates even as revenue disappointed. Here are the results. Earnings per share: $2.72 vs $2.56 expected, according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts Revenue: $27.91 billion vs $28.2 billion expected, according to Refinitiv Wall Street is also watching other key numbers in the Meta report: Daily Active Users (DAUs): 1.96 billion vs 1.95 billion expected, according to StreetAccount Monthly Active Users (MAUs): 2.94 billion vs 2.97 billion expected, according to StreetAccount Average Revenue per User (ARPU): $9.50 expected, according to StreetAccount The stock was up 13% after hours. Meta reported daily active users (DAUs) on Facebook that beat analyst estimates after reporting its first ever decline in users on record last quarter." MY COMMENT Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. These earnings will give us a chance for a GREEN day in the markets tomorrow. BUT.....as I said.....I will NEVER own this company. I have never liked their business or the fact that shareholder have ZERO power under their corporate structure.
LOL.....I love it. Should be a FUN DAY. The GDP number came in way lower than all the experts expected. They are all fumbling around with NO CLUE what happened or why. The perfect example of why to......never trust or believe the.....so called......"experts". US GDP unexpectedly contracted at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-us-gdp-gross-domestic-product-economic-activity-190926750.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. economic activity unexpectedly contracted in the first three months of 2022 with lingering supply chain constraints, inflation, and disruptions amid Russia's war in Ukraine weighing on growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its initial estimate of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg: GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter: -1.4% vs. 1.0% expected, 6.9% in Q4 Personal Consumption: 2.7% vs. 3.5% expected, 2.5% in Q4 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 5.2% vs. 5.5% expected, 5.0% in Q4 The GDP report will, as usual, serve as a backwards-looking overview of growth, capturing the January-through-March period. However, the metric is still an important indicator of the momentum the U.S. economy maintained at the start of this year — especially as some pundits now brace for the possibility of a recession in the near to medium term. And indeed, some of the points used to bolster the case for a downturn likely weighed on the pace of growth in the first quarter. Inflation has run at its hottest rate since the early 1980s, pressuring consumers' propensity to spend. Plus, the Russia-Ukraine war has hit global supply chains that had yet to recover from the pandemic. More recently, a widespread COVID-19 outbreak that ramped up in China last month has also threatened to further hit supply chains and growth. These myriad concerns will likely manifest in Thursday's GDP report as drags from trade, or "net exports," and inventories. Net exports have dragged on GDP for the past six consecutive quarters, and will likely do so for a seventh in the first quarter of 2022. The U.S. goods trade deficit raced to a record high in March at more than $125 billion. Imports, which subtract from headline GDP, reached an all-time high and far outpaced exports. And though inventories rose in March, slowing inventory growth earlier in the quarter while supply chain challenges lingered is expected to ultimately pull down Q1 GDP. "The primary driver of the slowdown is the large reversal in inventory accumulation, which we project to have subtracted two percentage points off headline GDP growth," Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo Corporate & Investment Banking, wrote in a note. "Net exports should also act as a drag on top-line growth, slicing off 0.6 percentage points." "On the positive side, we look for growth in both consumer spending and business investment to have picked up last quarter, an encouraging sign," he added. Consumer spending, which comprises about two-thirds of domestic activity, is expected to still provide a positive contribution to first-quarter GDP. Though spending slowed in the Commerce Department's monthly retail sales reports, a rotation from goods to services spending during the pandemic recovery and still-resilient consumer savings levels have largely helped buoy consumption. Business investment is also expected to boost GDP, as the reopening and solid consumer demand prompted companies to invest for future growth. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a monthly metric which helps approximate business investments, rose 1% in March, or double the consensus estimate. "Overall, the core orders and shipments data are signaling positive momentum in business investment and equipment spending," Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note on Tuesday. "However, there is downside risk to the manufacturing sector from the Ukraine war. Lockdowns in China are also likely to further strain supply networks and exacerbate shortages."" MY COMMENT So funny. One more down quarter and we are in a....."technical"......recession. AND......this is happening even before the FED does anything. Bottom line our INCOMPETENT government is KILLING the economy with their focus on MORONIC issues and ignorance of economics, capitalism, and business success. In addition.....once we work our way through all the MONEY that is sloshing around due to all the stimulus.....we are going to find out that it is hiding the fact that we are STILL in a DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT. The supply chain SUCKS. AND.....I find it very interesting that APPARENTLY a huge amount of the work force appears to have just......DISAPPEARED. Pilots, service workers......every sort of business or industry is way down in employees. Where did they all go? The poor FED morons.....are now in a big mess. The consumer spending is BOOMING.......we have surprisingly very negative GDP........they have only done one rate increase......etc, etc, etc. The economy is all over the place. On the stock investor side......I see this as a good thing. This should cause the FED to be more cautious about raising rates. In all aspects of society......we are being governed by.....FOOLS. Life is so interesting to live and watch. It will be a fun day. Just for EMPHASIS.......I repeat......GDP for the first quarter.......NEGATIVE by (-1.40%). LOL......LOL.
Sorry......I cant help thinking that the GDP surprise is funny. It brings a smile to my face to start the day. Can you tell that as an investor...........NO......I simply dont care.
After the last couple of posts it is the perfect time to talk about ESG investing. An Inconvenient Truth About ESG Investing https://hbr.org/2022/03/an-inconvenient-truth-about-esg-investing (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Summary. Investing in sustainable funds that prioritize ESG goals is supposed to help improve the environmental and social sustainability of business practices. Unfortunately, close analysis suggests that it’s not only not making much difference to companies’..." "As of December 2021, assets under management at global exchange-traded “sustainable” funds that publicy set environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investment objectives amounted to more than $2.7 trillion; 81% were in European based funds, and 13% in U.S. based funds. In the fourth quarter of 2021 alone, $143 billion in new capital flowed into these ESG funds. How have investors fared? Not that well, it seems. To begin with, ESG funds certainly perform poorly in financial terms. In a recent Journal of Finance paper, University of Chicago researchers analyzed the Morningstar sustainability ratings of more than 20,000 mutual funds representing over $8 trillion of investor savings. Although the highest rated funds in terms of sustainability certainly attracted more capital than the lowest rated funds, none of the high sustainability funds outperformed any of the lowest rated funds. That result might be expected, and it is possible that investors would be happy to sacrifice financial returns in exchange for better ESG performance. Unfortunately ESG funds don’t seem to deliver better ESG performance either. Researchers at Columbia University and London School of Economics compared the ESG record of U.S. companies in 147 ESG fund portfolios and that of U.S. companies in 2,428 non-ESG portfolios. They found that the companies in the ESG portfolios had worse compliance record for both labor and environmental rules. They also found that companies added to ESG portfolios did not subsequently improve compliance with labor or environmental regulations. This is not an isolated finding. A recent European Corporate Governance Institute paper compared the ESG scores of companies invested in by 684 U.S. institutional investors that signed the United Nation’s Principles of Responsible Investment (PRI) and 6,481 institutional investors that did not sign the PRI during 2013–2017. They did not detect any improvement in the ESG scores of companies held by PRI signatory funds subsequent to their signing . Furthermore, the financial returns were lower and the risk higher for the PRI signatories. Why are ESG funds doing so badly? Part of the explanation may simply be that an express focus on ESG is redundant: in competitive labor markets and product markets, corporate managers trying to maximize long-term shareholder value should of their own accord pay attention to employee, customer, community, and environmental interests. On this basis, setting ESG targets may actually distort decision making. There’s also some evidence that companies publicly embrace ESG as a cover for poor business performance. A recent paper by Ryan Flugum of the University of Northern Iowa and Matthew Souther of the University of South Carolina reported that when managers underperformed the earnings expectations (set by analysts following their company), they often publicly talked about their focus on ESG. But when they exceeded earnings expectations, they made few, if any, public statements related to ESG. Hence, sustainable fund managers who direct their investments to companies publicly embracing ESG principles may be over-investing in financially underperforming companies. The conclusion to be drawn from this evidence seems pretty clear: funds investing in companies that publicly embrace ESG sacrifice financial returns without gaining much, if anything, in terms of actually furthering ESG interests." MY COMMENT YOU.....can invest this way if you wish. BUT......I will never do so. I dont invest based on.....FEELINGS. When I was a business owner I did not run my business based on.....FEELINGS. You invest based on fundamentals and potential for......money. As a business owner you are crazy.......and.....going to fail if you run your business based on NON-BUSINESS criteria. The above shows that this sort of investing is all......FLUFF.....and....HOT AIR. BUT....I have no doubt it is here to stay. It is all about FEELING good and thinking that you are doing the right thing. The REALITY simply does not matter.
Moving on......before I piss off everyone reading this thread......I like this little article. Our Perspective on April’s Return to Rocky Markets Continued volatility—and even a possible retest of March’s low—isn’t uncommon for a correction. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...perspective-on-aprils-return-to-rocky-markets (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "War and atrocity. Food and energy price spikes. Widening Chinese lockdowns and supply chain disruption. Big swings in both stock and bond markets. Thus far, 2022—which features this bull market’s first correction (typically a short, sharp, sentiment-driven -10% to -20% pullback)—has been difficult for many investors. After March 8’s low, stocks rose to close the month, only to see renewed volatility in April send markets close to retesting that mark on Tuesday. That seemingly has fear and frustration spreading among investors. But, while such volatile times like this can be hard, we think they aren’t atypical during corrections. They call for calm—and perspective. Corrections are never easy, but they are a normal part of bull markets. Patience is likely to be rewarded, in our view. Corrections are chiefly sentiment swings, which often start with some plausible seeming negative story. In this case, it seems inflation, war and more recently China’s latest lockdowns underpin the move, with tragic news out of Ukraine stirring investors’ emotions alongside volatility. Being sentiment-driven gives corrections one of their toughest features: They are impossible to predict—and time. We aren’t aware of anyone with a proven history of circumventing sentiment-driven negativity and corrections. Such shifts happen suddenly. There won’t be any warning one is about to start—and no all-clear signal when it is over. The beginning and end are apparent in hindsight only. But there is a silver lining: Recoveries are usually about as fast as the drop, with stocks normally continuing to churn higher thereafter. Exhibit 1 shows all historical S&P 500 corrections since 1928. If the current correction resolves as others have—and we see little reason to think this time is different—the recovery to new highs and beyond could come much sooner than many seem to anticipate today. Exhibit 1: Historical S&P 500 Corrections Source: Global Financial Data, Inc., as of 4/5/2022. S&P 500 Index price returns during and after corrections, 1/3/1928 – 12/31/2021. Those recoveries are rarely straight lines. There is very often volatility after the low, or even W-shaped corrections. Take 1998’s W-shaped correction. (Exhibit 2) From its July peak to August trough, the -19% drop was swift. But it wasn’t a smooth recovery. An initial jump in September faded, with stocks retesting the lows by early October. To many, that may have felt like a gut punch—discouraging. But three months after August’s low, stocks were back to new highs, even with the retest. Full-year returns ended up being great after a strong, late rally wiped away bad memories from the correction—if you held on. Corrections will try your patience, but given their unpredictability, we think that patience is your best tool today. Exhibit 2: 1998’s Correction Wiped Out Year-to-Date Gains, but Stocks Still Finished (a Lot) Higher Source: FactSet, as of 4/26/2022. S&P 500 price index, 12/31/1997 – 12/31/1998. Bear markets start one of two ways, and we don’t think either cause is present currently. We call them the “wall” and the “wallop.” The wall refers to the proverbial wall of worry bull markets climb. As Sir John Templeton described famously: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” In our view, it appears pretty clear we are far from euphoria. A wallop is when a multitrillion-dollar negative—like worldwide pandemic lockdowns—wipes out global economic growth unexpectedly. Widely watched fears circulating in the news may be grounded in reality, but they don’t qualify as wallops. They lack the scale—although we are monitoring them in case they snowball—and enough surprise power to pack a wallop. In our view, the speed of the drop, widely publicized nature of the associated news stories, sentiment impact and lack of wallop scale strongly suggest the negativity we have seen in early 2022 is a correction, not a bear market. It is hard, and we hate to sound repetitive, but corrections call for calm—not action. Enduring sometimes-rocky roads isn’t fun, but if you need equity-like returns to finance your long-term goals and objectives, there is no avoiding them." MY COMMENT I could not agree more. The key for any real investor.......just hang on and wait it out.....as usual.
I heard one of the daily business personalities on TV......going off on FACEBOOK being UP by 15% today. I must say I agree with her. They had a POOR earnings report. They ONLY had a small beat on one bit of their earnings. As she said......the bar was so low.....they had little chance to not beat. AND....even at that.....they barely pulled out any beat at all. My view is that their new name......META......says it all as to where this company is headed. The Metaverse......is a bad joke on investors. When the time comes.....I dont believe many people are going to choose to live, work, and play in a little CARTOON world. AND....if they do......that will be a great thing for me and all the others that choose to not participate. I have never owned this company and never will.
One last comment for now.....as we wait for the markets to open with the futures positive......on the topic of investing FADS (Metaverse, ESG, etc, etc) What investors can learn from the carnage in SPACs: Morning Brief https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-investors-can-learn-from-the-carnage-in-spa-cs-100019253.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "SPACs are getting spanked this year, as risk-off sentiment spares virtually no asset class. All told, sponsors have abandoned plans for at least 56 new SPACs in 2022 (seven last week alone). Meanwhile, regulators are gearing up to tighten rules for these IPO alternatives beleaguered by poor performance and outright fraud in many instances, further turning the screws on the industry. Bottom line: Investors and sponsors alike are reeling and feeling the pinch. However, there are lessons here that investors can use to mitigate or prevent future losses. Special purpose acquisition vehicles were relatively unused until the firehose of pandemic liquidity spurred Wall Street capital markets teams into action, forming hundreds of companies to raise billions of dollars of equity in these so-called blank-check offerings There are still over 950 SPACs seeking to raise $239 billion from investors. Of this, $207 billion worth haven't even found a target. Given the hostile market environment — and perhaps an even more hostile Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) probing for fraud — it's difficult to imagine most of these ever merging. That might be good news for future investors. But if you're going to take the plunge, read the prospectus and ignore the celebrity sponsors. Most of these don't pass the smell test. That's lesson one. All investors are responsible for their own due diligence, but many rarely conduct it. In the case of SPACs, that can be difficult, as current SEC rules allow for more liberal projections about future growth than traditional IPOs. That's likely changing, but won't help the momentum chasers whose short-term trading punts have now become long-term "investments." Lesson two is risk management — THE name of the game in investing. Passive investors should learn the basics of rebalancing. Every stock picker needs a plan from the get-go, lest they become the ultimate bag-holders. This may be a protective stops, hedges, or simple dollar-cost averaging strategy. By the time a stock plummets 20% from an earnings miss or a general market meltdown, it's too late. Now let's survey the damage in SPACs since the beginning of 2021 for a quick example. The below chart speaks volumes. The benchmark Defiance NextGen SPAC IPO ETF (SPAK) is down 45% since the beginning of 2021, having closed at a record low on Monday. Of the nine featured SPACs also tracked above, only Lucid Motors (LCID) and Cerevel Therapeutics (CERE) are in the green — yet off 70% and 33%, respectively, from their all-time highs. WeWork (WE) — the real estate company that famously abandoned its plans for a traditional IPO in 2019 — listed last October and is down 36% from 2021. Fintech giant SoFi Technologies (SOFI) debuted to much fanfare last year, as it merged with the fifth iteration of Chamath Palihapitiya's Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings company. It's been cut in half — meaning investors need to hold out for a 100% rally to get back to even over this time frame. It gets worse for Luminar Technologies (LAZR) and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) — each crashed more than 60%. Beachbody (BODY) got shellacked to the tune of 85%. And, the short list rounds out with used car dealer CarLotz (LOTZ) shedding a shocking 92% since 2021. Investor lessons Alright, enough rubbernecking of the carnage in the capital markets. (It hit my 401(k), too.) But there are things an investor can do to mitigate the damage. Doing the math, if a stock is down 90%, it takes a 1,000% rally just to be made whole. Let that sink in. Without casting shade on the actual businesses conducted by the over 260 SPACs that have come to market since 2018, most will not recover investor losses, and many will fold. (Many IPOs will too, for that matter — it's the cycle of business, Simba.) Ahead of Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting in May, it's worthwhile to remember the sage words of Warren Buffett: “Buy a stock the way you would buy a house. Understand and like it such that you’d be content to own it in the absence of any market.”" MY COMMENT SPAC investing......in my view......another very risky FAD. Some of these schemes are even.....in my personal opinion......a semi-scam (not a comment one way or another on the ones above). I would NOT touch these things with a 150 foot pole.
I just LOVE IT when an unrelated series of articles come together to create kind of a posting THEME....like the above. Purely RANDOM CHANCE.
I am looking forward to the Amazon and Apple earnings today after the bell.......and.....Honeywell tomorrow before the bell. I will miss the close today since I will be on a short little 250 mile, one day, road trip this afternoon. SO......you guys hold up the markets for me heading into the afternoon and the close.
Yup looks like we’re on our way into a mighty dandy recession. I don’t think anything can help it at this point. Watch it all come down- 2 years of insane spending, from traditional real estate spending through the creation of new spending/gambling habits as in crypto and meme stock. This is it. Payback time. I wouldn’t necessarily blame the feds for this (as much as I’d like to), it’s simply government stupidity, and this charade started in 2020, so if it makes you the reader feel more comfortable- it’s BOTH administrations to blame for allowing this chaos to happen. I was skeptical whether this house of cards truly existed till now, but now it’s obvious to read the writing on the wall - RECESSION. let’s just hope it’s not gonna get to 2008 levels. I am not doing anything. Not selling anything. I’m simply gonna leave everything as I always had and let this ugly chapter in history write itself out, as long as it takes.
This seems like very interesting timing to me. I am........"SURE"......it has nothing to do with the fact that now ELON will be looking at their numbers and is entitled to......."REAL".....and accurate data now that he is purchasing the company. I am sure this......"new".....number will be very interesting to those that have been paying for advertising based on the usage numbers.....as well as shareholders. Twitter admits overstating audience figures for 3 years Social media group targeted by Elon Musk reveals ‘error’ as it posts double-digit rise in users and revenue https://www.ft.com/content/3184a769-4288-44e8-abea-300d27c1aa95 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) I will call the below......."ALLEGATIONS".......since I have no personal knowledge of this topic: "Twitter admitted to overstating its audience figures by almost 2mn users for almost three years, as it reported its first quarterly results since the social media company agreed a $44bn buyout from Tesla chief Elon Musk. It is the second time that Twitter has miscalculated its user numbers, after discovering in 2017 that a similar error had gone unnoticed for three years. The latest mistake was revealed just days after Twitter agreed a leveraged buyout by Musk. The entrepreneur has hinted at plans to reshape Twitter’s business model, which at present relies on advertising for more than 90 per cent of its revenues. Given the deal, Twitter’s first-quarter earnings report offered minimal commentary and did not include any guidance for the rest of the year. The company is also forgoing its usual conference call with analysts. First-quarter revenues of $1.2bn came in slightly below Wall Street’s forecasts, which Twitter blamed on “headwinds associated with the war in Ukraine”. However, Twitter’s monetisable daily active users (mDAU), its unique metric for tracking its audience, came in better than investors expected at 229mn, with year-on-year growth of 6.4 per cent in the US and 18.1 per cent in the rest of the world. Net income jumped to $513mn, thanks to a one-off benefit from the $1bn sale of its mobile advertising unit MoPub to AppLovin, which closed in January. Shares in Twitter rose about 1 per cent to $49.05 in early trading, below the $54.20 per share price at which Musk has agreed to buy the company. Twitter also revealed what it described as an “error” introduced in the first quarter of 2019 that “resulted in an overstatement of mDAU” that went undiscovered for almost three years. Recommended News in-depthTwitter Inc Musk’s Twitter financing tests Wall Street’s mettle: ‘What could go wrong?’ The difference between the figures Twitter reported over the past year and the true count ranged between 1.4mn to 1.9mn, it said, or just below 1 per cent of the total. It did not provide a reconciliation for 2019 or most of 2020. Advertisers rely on accurate estimates of audience size when planning their campaigns. “In March of 2019, we launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts,” the company said. “An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDAU.” Fake or spam accounts represented “fewer than 5 per cent” of its mDAU during the quarter, Twitter said, after an internal review. Musk has said that he plans to crack down on “bots” or fake accounts when he takes over. In 2017, Twitter had to lower its previously reported user figures since 2014 by as much as 2mn per quarter, after it discovered it had been mistakenly counting activity from third-party applications as unique users." MY COMMENT Sounds like some hefty refunds are due to advertisers........as well as......the usual shareholder lawsuit. What an.......AMAZING COINCIDENCE......that this was discovered just at the point where an outsider will be able to review their books and all their data........not that I am making any accusations. Since I have no personal knowledge I will say that the info in this post is......." media allegations"........and not fact.
Imagine how many skewed truths will be revealed if bi partisan entrepreneurs such as musk would take over bigger conglomerates such as meta, app, goog and the likes… ohhhhh boy!
I touched my stocks again yesterday but in a most likely good way that paid off. Ditched Disney and Microsoft and bought more NVDA and GOOGL which were both way down and cheap to buy as well as more EQT. Only have ALK, EQT, GOOGL, and NVDA. Gained 3.73% today so I handily beat the S&P and I'm down 8.81% ytd which is also still slightly ahead of the S&P.
Amazon: market not happy w/ their results. Maybe time for me to dump it and move to something more juicy. Not confident also with what tomorow may brings to honeywell.
I wouldn’t dump any solid company right now. This market is in complete confusion mode now… this likely will end with either everything falling altogether or by miraculously getting past this hurdle… we’ll have to wait and see how this year plays out
Ditto Zukodany. If Anything, It is a Buying Opportunity to Grab Shares for Cheaper Prices. Day Traders Mileage May Vary. -IndependentCandy14
I ended in the green today....of course. I also got in a good beat on the SP500 by 1.10%. A BIG GAIN day today.
Here is amazon. Amazon shares fall on bleak forecast and slowest growth since dot-com bust https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/amazon-amzn-q1-2022-earnings.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Amazon on Thursday gave a revenue forecast that trailed analysts’ estimates. Growth rates are at their slowest since the dot-com bust in 2001. The company recorded a $7.6 billion loss on its investment in electric vehicle maker Rivian. Amazon plunges after hours after reporting net loss of $3.8B Amazon shares dropped as much as 10% in extended trading on Thursday after the company issued a revenue forecast that trailed analysts’ estimates. Here’s how the company did: Earnings: $7.38 per share, adjusted, vs. $8.36 expected, according to Refinitiv Revenue: $116.44 billion vs. $116.3 billion expected, according to Refinitiv Here’s how other key Amazon segments did during the quarter: Amazon Web Services: $ 18.44 billion vs. $18.27 billion expected, according to StreetAccount Advertising: $7.88 billion vs. $8.17 billion expected, according to StreetAccount Amazon recorded a $7.6 billion loss on its Rivian investment after shares in the electric vehicle company lost more than half their value in the quarter. That resulted in a total net loss of $3.8 billion. Revenue at Amazon increased 7% during the first quarter, compared with 44% expansion in the year-ago period. It marks the slowest rate for any quarter since the dot-com bust in 2001 and the second straight period of single-digit growth. The second-quarter forecasts suggests growth could dip even further, to between 3% and 7% from a year earlier. Amazon said it projects revenue this quarter of $116 billion to $121 billion, missing the $125.5 billion average analyst estimate, according to Refinitiv. Like Google and Facebook earlier this week, Amazon is attributing much of the slowdown to macroeconomic conditions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “The pandemic and subsequent war in Ukraine have brought unusual growth and challenges,” Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in a statement. He added that the company is “squarely focused” on offsetting costs in its fulfillment network now that staffing and warehousing capacity are at normal levels. Amazon has been navigating a host of economic challenges, including rising inflation, higher fuel and labor costs, global supply chain snarls, and the ongoing pandemic. To offset some of those costs, Amazon earlier this month introduced a 5% surcharge for some of its U.S. sellers, the first such fee in its history. And last quarter, Amazon hiked the price of its U.S. Prime membership for the first time in four years to $139 from $119. Profits are still taking a hit. The company’s operating margin, or the money that’s left after accounting for costs to run the business, dipped to 3.2% in the first quarter from 8.2% a year earlier. “This may take some time, particularly as we work through ongoing inflationary and supply chain pressures, but we see encouraging progress on a number of customer experience dimensions, including delivery speed performance as we’re now approaching levels not seen since the months immediately preceding the pandemic in early 2020,” Jassy said. Amazon and Apple, which also reported results on Thursday, are the last of the Big Tech class to update investors on their start to the year. So far it’s been a mixed bag, with ad-supported businesses struggling due in part to macroeconomic conditions and the war in Ukraine. Amazon is the latest company to join the pack in reporting disappointing ad revenue. Still, the segment grew 23% year over year, faster expansion than its ad peers. Google’s ad revenue increased 22%, slowed down by YouTube, which recorded weaker-than-expected growth of 14%. Facebook’s ad revenue rose by just 6.1%, the weakest expansion in the company’s 10-year history as a public company. Amazon’s cloud-computing unit continues to hum along, as the company fends off competition from Microsoft and Google. Sales at Amazon Web Services increased 36.5% from a year earlier to $18.44 billion, above the $18.27 billion projected by Wall Street. AWS generated 57% growth in operating income to $6.5 billion, while total operating income for Amazon fell to $3.7 billion from $8.9 billion a year ago. The Rivian markdown produced the company’s first net loss in a quarter since 2015. Amazon also confirmed Thursday that this year’s Prime Day will take place in July. Last year, Amazon held Prime Day in June. By moving the two-day discount event to the third quarter, it could potentially hurt year-over-year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter while boosting third-quarter results." MY COMMENT Poor earnings except for a slight beat on general revenue........and.....web services. Plus very poor forward looking statements. The leadership ability of Jassy is very much in doubt. The company seems to have more going on than just dealing with inflation and supply issues. They seem to be lingering for thee past year and a half. They waited way too long to do the stock split and are taking way too long to complete it. I have no plans to sell since I want to capture the stock split shares........and see how they do over the next few years. Growing pains? Or.....more serious issues?
