The Long Term Investor

I consider this guy the greatest contrary indicator in all of investing history. I have been reading his predictions and dire warnings for a long, long, time. He is UNIFORMLY wrong in my opinion. He is a complete media hound.....and....what I see attributed to him in the media is always......in my opinion.....a completely obvious attempt to push whatever he is investing in at the moment.

Jim Rogers warns of the ‘worst bear market’ in his lifetime – these are the ‘least dangerous’ assets to own today

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-rogers-warns-worst-bear-220000086.html

This sort of stuff....pushed by short term speculators.....is EXACTLY the type of stuff that long term investors should NEVER follow. The good news is that this sort of stuff is constantly wrong ....at least in my personal opinion. So...if he thinks it is the worst bear market in his life.......there is hope that it will end up being nothing.

 

The other good news today is the fact that there is absolutely NOTHING going on in the news or otherwise today. So...the day will depend on the strength of the markets. AND....after the nice gains yesterday the very short term......2 days.....market direction looks to me like it is positive.

AFTER the start to the year that we have all lived through.....WE DESERVE TO MAKE SOME MONEY THIS WEEK.

 

Here is some information on housing and mortgages. As we often see with rising rates the popularity of adjustable mortgages with lower rates is starting to skyrocket.

Demand for adjustable-rate mortgages surges, as interest rates make biggest jump in 13 years

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/22/dem...-mortgages-surges-as-interest-rates-jump.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 8% last week compared with the previous week, bolstered in part by demand for adjustable-rate mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
• A big jump in mortgage rates may have actually spurred homebuyer demand, perhaps as consumers worried rates would move even higher.
• “The average loan size, at just over $420,000, is well below its $460,000 peak earlier this year and is potentially a sign that home price-growth is moderating,” said Joel Kan, an economist for the MBA.

Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 8% last week compared with the previous week, bolstered in part by demand for adjustable-rate mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Applications were, however, 10% lower than they were in the same week one year ago.

A big jump in mortgage rates may have actually spurred homebuyer demand, perhaps as consumers worried rates would move even higher. Mortgage rates surged to the highest level since 2008, while making their biggest one-week jump last week in 13 years.

Meanwhile the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.98% from 5.65%, with points rising to 0.77 from 0.71 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. Rates are now nearly double what they were one year ago.

“Purchase applications increased for the second straight week – driven mainly by conventional applications – and the ARM share of applications jumped back to over 10%,” wrote Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “The average loan size, at just over $420,000, is well below its $460,000 peak earlier this year and is potentially a sign that home price-growth is moderating.”

Adjustable-rate mortgages offer lower interest rates and can generally be fixed for terms of five, seven or 10 years. While these loans are considered riskier, because they have the potential to adjust to higher or lower rates, they are underwritten much more strictly than they were during the last housing boom more than a decade ago that eventually led to an epic housing crash.

Buyer demand may also be increasing because the supply of homes for sale is finally growing. Active inventory nationwide is now up 17% year over year according to Realtor.com. Homes are now selling faster than they were a year ago.

Applications to refinance a home loan fell 3% for the week and were 77% lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 29.7% of total applications from 31.7% the previous week."

MY COMMENT

I like to talk about residential housing on here since a home is probably the single biggest asset that most people own. the housing markets and housing prices are a big factor in the financial security of most investors and has a HUGE impact on the PSYCHOLOGY and general FEELINGS of most investors.

From the above it looks like mortgage rates are now over 6% with zero points. As we have seen in the past many times....when rates go higher adjustable rate mortgages become very popular.

 

I finally looked for the first time today. I am MILDLY positive so far. I was afraid that today would be one of those days when the general markets were up but my particular portfolio would be down. NIKE is holding me back some today.

 

Well....in the end it was a wasted day for me today. A moderate loss.....but....nine of ten positions in the red. My only winner was Amazon....up by +.25%. And....I got my ass kicked by the SP500 by 0.63%.

Not a big loss today....but pretty much across the board.

 

Looks like the last 15-20 minutes of the market today were not too pretty. All of the averages ended in the red after being in the green nearly all day.

 

Here is what we saw today. Looks to me like a bunch of short term traders or a bunch of AI trading computers swept into the markets in the last half hour or so and tanked the gains that had held for most of the day.

Stocks inch lower as rally attempt on Wall Street falters

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/21/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks fell slightly Wednesday in choppy trading as markets struggled to sustain a rebound from earlier in the day.

Traders also weighed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated the central bank’s stance to fight inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 47.12 points, or 0.15%, to 30,483.13, slipping in the final hour of trading. The S&P 500 dipped 0.13% to 3,759.89. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.15% to 11,053.08.

Growing concerns of a recession on Wall Street have recently weighed on stocks. Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday told Congress the central bank has the “resolve” to tame inflation that has surged to 40-year highs.

“At the Fed, we understand the hardship high inflation is causing,” the Fed chief said to the Senate Banking Committee. “We are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down, and we are moving expeditiously to do so.”

Powell added that the Fed will stay the course until it sees “compelling evidence that inflation is moving down.” He also said achieving a soft landing for the economy without a recession has become “significantly more challenging.”

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.75 percentage point last week and hinted another increase of that magnitude was possible next month. The central bank’s shift last week to a more aggressive inflation-fighting stance unnerved investors who worried the central bank would rather risk a recession than endure persistent high inflation.

“Inflation remains the biggest risk to financial assets, and Jerome Powell has made his position abundantly clear: The Fed will continue to raise interest rates until inflation begins to wane. Until then, a sustainable rally for risk assets is hard to imagine,” wrote Robert Schein, chief investment officer of Blanke Schein Wealth Management.

“Tight monetary conditions will continue to be a headwind to financial markets until the Fed gives the greenlight,” Schein continued.

Recession concerns

Expectations of a pending recession continued to grow on Wall Street this week. Citigroup raised chances of a global recession to 50%, pointing to data that consumers are starting to pull back on spending.

“The experience of history indicates that disinflation often carries meaningful costs for growth, and we see the aggregate probability of recession as now approaching 50%,” read a note from Citigroup.

Goldman Sachs believes a recession is becoming increasingly likely for the U.S. economy, saying that the risks are “higher and more front-loaded.”

“The main reasons are that our baseline growth path is now lower and that we are increasingly concerned that the Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations if energy prices rise further, even if activity slows sharply,” the firm said in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, UBS said Tuesday in a note to clients that it does not expect a U.S. or global recession in 2022 or 2023 in its base case, “but it’s clear that the risks of a hard landing are rising.”

“Even if the economy does slip into a recession, however, it should be a shallow one given the strength of consumer and bank balance sheets,” UBS added.

Energy stocks took a hit as oil prices dropped on concern a slower economy will hurt fuel demand. The sector was the worst-performing on the broad market index, down 4.2%.

Shares of Marathon Oil and ConocoPhillips dropped 7.2% and 6.3%, respectively. Occidental Petroleum and Exxon Mobil dipped 3.6% and nearly 4%.

On Wednesday, President Joe Biden called for Congress to suspend the federal gas tax for three months. The effort is meant to ease pressures at the pump for consumers during an election year."

MY COMMENT

LOL......achieving a soft landing has become "significantly more challenging". Yeah.....DUH......since we are probably already in a recession. Ask any small business owner.

Basically a worthless day for the markets today.

 

In keeping with the PRIMARY FOCUS of this thread......I like this little article.

Now—as ever—is the time for a long-term-investing view

https://investor.vanguard.com/inves...er-is-the-time-for-a-long-term-investing-view

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"At Vanguard, we’ve always emphasized the importance of investing for the long term. The example of two recent U.S. equity market trading days helps reinforce that message.

On January 20, the markets rose solidly throughout the day, with the Nasdaq, best-known for technology stocks, up nearly 2% at its highest point. But the gains evaporated in a flurry of late selling. Just two business days later, on January 24, the situation presented itself in reverse. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of the largest U.S. companies was down by as much as 4% yet finished in positive territory after a late-day surge.

Anyone who hadn’t paid attention to the wild swings may have thought that stocks’ daily movements were unremarkable. We’ve always believed that, for long-term investors, not paying attention to the day-to-day is a wise strategy.

Several factors suggest more volatility ahead

It hasn’t been possible, of course, to avoid the developments that have so roiled the financial markets in 2022. Two of the biggest—accelerating inflation and a pandemic that just won’t quit—we’re living with every day. Throw in a Federal Reserve that we believe will need to act decisively to contain inflation, as Vanguard’s global chief economist, Joe Davis, recently wrote and it’s not hard to imagine more volatility ahead, along with the potential for losses in a stock market that low interest rates have fueled.

But it remains possible to maintain perspective through understanding history. Volatility, as the illustration shows, is a constant that tends to spike when stock markets endure valleys.

A history of volatility and long-term gains



Notes: Intraday volatility is calculated as the daily range of trading prices ([high-low]/opening price) for the S&P 500 Index. Periods of extended volatility above historical averages have at times resulted in sharp losses during the period, as shown. The index value has also risen during periods of extended high volatility.  

What investors should keep sight of is that, over time, these inevitable valleys have given way to higher peaks. It’s why we continue to invest to finance our long-term goals, such as retirement. And it should be our goals that govern our approach to investing. These goals, as Vanguard’s principles for investing success emphasize, should be built on realistic assumptions for investing returns.

A time to embrace balance and discipline

The Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook for 2022 notes our guarded, though not bearish, long-term equity return outlooks. The course of the year ahead will be influenced by how policymakers remove from still-growing economies the strong fiscal and monetary support that had been required to withstand the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Our outlook for fixed income is more sanguine; although interest rates remain historically low, modest rises since 2020 have moved our return outlooks commensurately higher. (A recent Vanguard analysis reveals a silver lining for investors in rising interest rates.)

Policymakers face a balancing act in the months ahead, one that could carry significant implications for economic growth, inflation, and investment returns. Their jobs won’t be easy. Investors, meanwhile, may find their discipline challenged by markets that have approached or already entered corrections, or falls of 10% or more from recent highs.

Our message for investors, as always: Maintain perspective, tune out the day-to-day noise that can lead to impulsive decisions, be true to your goals, and put your faith in a history that has rewarded those who embrace the long term."

MY COMMENT

This message from the KING of long term investing....Vanguard........back in January of 2022......should be a mantra for any investor today facing the challenges of the current market.

DO NOT let the short term markets spook you. Have faith in the long term future of investing. Take to heart the lessons and commentary above.

COURAGE.

 

We are starting the day today where we should have ended yesterday. All the averages in the green. For some unknown reason......the extremely short term ts totally opaque.......we had a sudden drop the last half hour or so yesterday. That DID NOT represent what actually was happening in the markets yesterday.

Unfortunately.....the FED will be on the prowl again today and tomorrow. Powell will be officially talking today and the rest of them will no doubt be talking over the rest of the week.

I have no doubt that the very short term market direction......"should"....be positive today and tomorrow. There is simply NOTHING going on that should be negative to stocks. BUT....this is a traders market at the moment with all the volatility and the artificial intelligence trading systems operating from news headlines and obscure data in concert with each other. These systems are a HUGE counterweight to the retail and small regular investors......and.....they drive the minute to minute and day to day markets.

At least on the positive side we seem to be getting a break from the severe down days for a short while. It will be nice when we hit bottom....even if we have to linger on that bottom for a long time.

We are all green right now.....but the gains are mild and dont seem to reflect much if any market confidence.

 

We do have one BIG item underpinning the markets today. the Ten Year Treasury is way down today.....to 3.032%. That is a BIG drop. That might provide some nice market support for a day or two. BUT....the direction for treasury yields is still significantly to the UP side.

With the FED raising rates we are going to see big increases in various rates as well as mortgages. Bond holders are going to take it in the shorts. People that need cash equivalent investments are going to really like the coming CD and other rates. Home buyers are going to hate the new high mortgage rates.

Bottom line......a whole generation of people......anyone under about age 35.....are going to see what NORMAL rates look like and the plus and minus side of those normal rates.

 

DEFINITELY a true statement.

Some Key Concepts Useful in Navigating Today’s Markets
While it may feel right to seek relief from bear markets’ declines, the result can be far worse in the longer run.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...-concepts-useful-in-navigating-todays-markets

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Since stocks breached -20% from their prior high on June 13, crossing the popular threshold for a bear market, a constant drumbeat of headlines has warned of worse to come. In these trying times, the urge to do something may seem overwhelming—but doing something can easily backfire. In that vein, here are some dos and don’ts we think can help you in difficult times like the present.

We know bear markets are hard—and frightening. Enduring one is far from ideal. When a bear market comes amid a series of seemingly relentless negative news stories, cutting equity exposure may look like the sensible and prudent thing to do. Take your losses and live to fight another day. In our experience, though, that isn’t wise, as selling crystalizes declines into losses and increases the chances you miss the recovery—the chance to recoup those declines. Hence, our first recommendation.

Don’t panic. When all seems lost, that is the best time to stay calm and collect yourself. First, assess your situation. Ask: Is my portfolio’s asset allocation (the mix of stocks, bonds, cash and other securities) designed with bear markets in mind? Meaning, are the expected long-term returns it is based on inclusive of bear markets? If so, it should meet your longer-range financial goals even with occasional downturns—including historically bad ones. Mitigating bear markets’ drops may be nice, even beneficial, but it isn’t necessary to reach your goals. The ride may be bumpy, but participating in a bear market shouldn’t derail your long-term goals as long as you also participate in bull markets.

Do look forward. Nobody knows exactly when the downdraft will end. Inflection points are impossible to identify until well after the fact. However, it will end. Historically, bull markets have always followed bear markets, the recoveries are usually strong, and stocks typically continue on to even higher highs than before the bear market. The key is to participate in the upswings when they come. Reacting to past downside risks locking in the decline—which then necessitates timing a reentry very well. That is tough to do, considering buying when markets are lower requires a) them to fall further and b) you to have the gumption to buy when things look even worse than now. Market recoveries are typically very strong and start when very, very few expect them to. Try to look to that now.

Don’t chase heat. Besides going to cash, the other bear-market temptation is to chase the downturn’s winners. In this bear market, Energy is the clear standout. Since the MSCI World’s high on January 4, Energy is up 18.3% versus the benchmark’s -22.8%. But through June 8, Energy had risen 45.9%, benefiting from many of the worries that have plagued stocks generally this year—like persistently high oil prices.[ii] Since then, though, it has declined -19.0%—almost its own sector “bear market.”[iii] We think this, too, is sentiment-driven, reflecting fears of a recession destroying demand. While a recession is possible, despite sentiment otherwise, we don’t think it is likely. But if that changes and one does arrive, Energy stocks would likely do quite poorly due to their cyclical nature, alongside value stocks that normally underperform in prolonged fundamentally driven bear markets due to their economic sensitivity and reliance on credit, which tends to dry up in a recession.

Do maintain liquidity. We would also suggest avoiding illiquid assets—e.g., private equity and collectibles. We think such investments can be especially dangerous because although they might appear to be doing well or holding up, that may be illusory. Because they don’t trade often, their prices may be stale—not reflecting current market conditions—or be subject to dodgy pricing generally, using alternative methods to gauge their worth that you would want to read the fine print on. There is also high risk of encountering scams in the world of collectibles, particularly in the age of digital/securitized collectibles.

Do steer clear of flashy sales pitches. In a similar vein, products and services that prey on bearishness abound. Low-volatility or inverse (and leveraged) ETFs may top performance leaderboards this year—and are advertised that way—but that is just another form of heat chasing. Annuities or options strategies may also beckon—but these can be quite complicated and, we find, often aren’t worth the supposed bells and whistles they offer. Problems range from expense to low, CD-like returns, even when the names suggest otherwise. Note, too, that annuities are very long-term decisions that can be quite illiquid and costly to exit. Emotions are the enemy here. Always remember this general rule: Products touting capital preservation and growth are a myth—the two goals can’t coexist. The former requires assets that don’t move in price; the latter the opposite. It is an irreconcilable divide.

Don’t dive into dividends. To be clear, we have nothing against dividends, but chasing stocks for their dividend yields alone is far from a sure-fire strategy through rocky markets. Remember, dividends are a return of capital, not a return on them. When paid, the stock price drops by the dividend’s amount. People often see the dividend payment as a cushion, but in doing so they ignore that dividend stocks are also subject to price movement. Reinvested dividends are but one part of total return, and dividend stocks aren’t always outperformers during a bear market. Moreover, dividends can get cut—and often are at the worst possible time, deep into a downturn. It can also lead to overconcentration in sectors and industries, negatively impacting your diversification.

Do remember bear market rallies are normal and the low will be clear only in hindsight. Big downswings frequently come with big upswings in a bear market. Getting caught up in relief on a rally is as much an error as despairing during a renewed drop. As always, past price changes—down or up—don’t say anything about future ones, and short-term moves say less. Adjust your expectations accordingly. Rather than ride the emotional waves from moment to moment, keep an even keel and look longer term. Time, perspective and a level head are an investor’s best tools in rough market stretches."

MY COMMENT

This is a great little article. A perfect bear market investing summary of what to do and what not to do.

I do agree with the paragraph on collectables. A bear market is not the time to .......suddenly....decide to start "investing" in collectables. It is one thing if you are an experienced collector in an established category that has true market value......but jumping on some FAD during a down market is a recipe for disaster. As to the NFT fad......made up collectables that are totally illusory......I would not touch any of them with a fifty foot pole. Same with the Meta-verse BS. I have yet to see anything from the Meta-verse that has any value at all.

As to annuities and the people that SELL them.....I agree totally with the above. the vast majority of annuity products are not something that I would ever have any interest in. I own some annuities.....but....they are simple income annuities. They provide a lifetime pension for my wife and I.......and.....they are totally different than the other sorts of "bad" annuities that are "sold" to people.

 

Follow the guidelines in the little article above and you will avoid this trap.

How bear market rallies trap dip buyers and frustrate investors: Morning Brief

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morning-brief-june-23-100044415.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Bear market rallies are the stuff of legends.

Born through a combination of conditioned dip-buying and FOMO — or a fear of missing out from investors — the bear market rally's purpose is to maximize investor pain. And these events do it well.

The market lures in new longs, only to eventually send stocks to new lows.

At the beginning of bear market turns, these rallies are flashy and short-lived. As the market grinds lower, these rallies tend to grow bigger, more exciting, and quite deceptive.

During the Financial Crisis, the market head-faked investors with three minor rallies from fall '07 through summer '08 — of 8%, 12%, and then 7%, respectively — suckering in new longs near the 2007 record highs.

And then markets really started messing with investors.

Declines of 45% and 51% from record highs were met with rallies of 18% and 24% in the fall of 2008, moves that came several months before the market's ultimate bottom in March 2009.

Suddenly, headlines were reading: "Stock market 20% off the lows," enticing traumatized investors to possibly pull the trigger on what remained of their cash position — only to see new lows in the coming weeks and months.


S&P 500 — Global Financial Crisis Bear Market Rallies
During the dot-com bubble burst, it took nearly three years for the bear market to finally shake out bagholders from the first tech mania.

The S&P 500 dropped 49% from record highs before hitting its ultimate bottom in late 2002. Over the course of 2001 and 2002, the S&P 500 saw no fewer than four rallies of 19% or more.

It wouldn't be until the spring of 2007 that the benchmark index would reach another record high. Just in time, of course, for the aforementioned Financial Crisis.


S&P 500 — Tech Bubble Crash Bear Market Rallies
Bear markets test investors, both on the way up and way down. When the news cycle seems like it can't get anymore horrifying, stocks seize an olive branch. Perhaps it is a reprieve from a hawkish central banker or a drop in sky-high oil prices.

But no matter the catalyst, bear market rallies can send stocks off to the races, and weary investors don't want to miss out.

Rinse, repeat.

At its most recent lows, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was down over 23%, and the rallies so far this year have been shallow and short-lived. The largest was a roughly two-week move at the end of March that produced an 11% bounce for the index.

March's move was particularly rough for traders, as this rally took out February highs which weren't too far from the S&P 500's record close seen on January 3, 2022. Anyone who bought that breakout was treated to a 16% loss over the next seven weeks.

This bear, it seems, is still young.

A less forceful 7% rally in late May and early June was knocked down by inflation rearing its ugly head again, with a four-decade high for the consumer price index tipping the S&P into "official" bear market territory.

And now we're barely off the new lows. Again.


S&P 500 — 2022 Bear Market Rallies
From here — if history is any guide — this bear market will only get trickier and more frustrating as subsequent rallies likely grow bigger.

"If they don't scare you out, they wear you out," says AlphaTrends.net founder Brian Shannon.

Something to keep in mind if we're sitting here at the end of June, or July, or August looking at the biggest rally of the year."

MY COMMENT

The best way to avoid bear market rallies and jumping in and out of the markets......is with steady long term investing. In other words not trying to......time the markets.....especially in the middle of a nasty bear market and potential recession.

 

WELL.....the green has escalated into the morning in the markets. The NASDAQ and the SP500 are now strongly positive.......the DOW, medium. Of course....the day is early.

I have not looked at my account today so I have no idea how I am doing. I dont really care since I am not going to do anything anyway. I think I will go outside and plant a couple of new plants before the temperatures get up near 100 degrees. The markets can take care of themselves.

 

I am back from my planting adventure in the gardens. Saw a toad and some Texas spiny lizards but no snakes. We dont see too many snakes here....over the past 12 years I have only seen one snake in our driveway.....a baby diamond back. When we lived in the country we would relocate about 5-6 snakes a year. Mostly copperheads and water moccasins. Where we lived down toward Houston there were not any rattlesnakes. In the country I would not kill snakes.....I had a system to catch them, in a small metal trash can with a locking lid and relocate them.

It is a scorcher out there today. NOT good news for this weekend when I have two shows. We are doing the REGIONAL thing now with most shows. This weekend, one will be a little trip of about 200 miles and the other about 150. Thank God one of the shows is an indoor venue. The vast majority of our shows are outside venues.....which is a killer in 100 degree heat. The second one this weekend is mid afternoon.....the worst. Even the outside evening shows starting at about 7-8 are in the high 90's. We end up being outside for at least an hour or two before the show even starts as we set up stuff and work with the sound people for their set up and sound checks.

BUT.....I am glad to do it. Most of the people that I played and toured with over the years are either dead or no longer able to play. I am glad to have the extra UN-BUDGETED INCOME.

 

I was looking at the price of silver and gold on the financial news a few minutes ago. Both are well below their highs. Neither one seems to be acting as any sort of inflation hedge at all. I guess that punches a big hole in the argument for buying metal as an inflation hedge.

I think the reason they are mostly IGNORED now is Crypto. The younger people go to Crypto as their speculative play and inflation hedge. Although that is not working out too well either. In the old days before Crypto.....people that were speculative minded and worried about a physical hedge would go to gold and silver. I think those days are over now.

I also see that the Ten Year Treasury continues to slip in yield. Can you say DEFLATION?

 

I used the phrase......."sound people" above instead of "soundman".

But......thinking about it.......I have NEVER seen or had a female engineer in a studio or a female "soundman" over my lifetime. I guess the live sound work involves too much heavy lifting for most females.....but....you would think that there would be some females in the business. Definitely the same with studio work and engineering. I am surprised that you very rarely.....in my case never.....see a female studio engineer.

We would not care one way or the other.....it is about quality of sound.......not gender. Just a social observation.

 

One of my favorite topics......for DRAMA.....Cathie Wood.

Cathie Wood Watch: Ark Sells Spatial Data Company's Stock
Wood also dumped a familiar biotechnology name and bought two other stocks for the second day in a row.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cathie-wood-buys-sells-stocks?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Famed investor Cathie Wood sold shares of a spatial data company and a familiar biotechnology name June 22.

And for the second day in a row, she bought shares of an autonomous vehicle company and a digital-products maker.

All the valuations below are as of the June 22 close.

Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) - Get ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF Report dumped 490,185 shares of Matterport (MTTR) , the spatial data company, valued at $2 million. Matterport focuses on digitization and datafication of the built world. Its stock has plunged 81% so far this year.

Ark Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) - Get ARK Genomic Revolution ETF Report unloaded 1,039,018 shares of Burning Rock Biotech (BNR) - Get Burning Rock Biotech Limited Report, valued at $2.2 million. The stock has dropped 75% year to date.

On the buying side, Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics purchased 134,700 shares of Markforged (MKFG) , a digital manufacturing platform, valued at $299,034. The stock has slumped 58% so far this year.

Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics also snagged 40,806 shares of TuSimple (TSP) - Get TuSimple Holdings Inc. Report, the autonomous vehicle company, valued at $329,712. The stock has dropped 76% year to date.

ARKK) - Get ARK Innovation ETF Report could indeed give investors comfort until May 9. The fund’s five-year return beat that of the S&P 500 until then. But the five-year annualized return of Ark Innovation totaled 8.11% through June 22, far behind the S&P 500’s 11.05% return.

Ark Innovation has sunk 56% so far this year, as Wood’s tech companies have hit the skids. And it’s down 74% from its February 2021 peak. Raging inflation and soaring interest rates have helped put the kibosh on tech stocks.

Wood’s investors are starting to cut bait just a bit. Ark Innovation suffered a net outflow of $4.2 million in the month through June 21, according to VettaFi, an ETF research firm. But the fund still had a $1.3 billion inflow for the six months through that date.

Deflation Risk

Meanwhile, Wood has said she sees deflation as a greater risk than inflation. Price gauges like the consumer price index (CPI) are lagging indicators, she said. The CPI soared 8.6% in the 12 months through May, a 40-year high.

Wood prefers indicators like the price of gold, which hasn’t moved a lot from a year ago, and the dollar, which has risen sharply.

Costs are dropping for her companies’ technologies too, such as artificial intelligence training, genomic sequencing, and battery prices for electric cars. Those technologies will have a huge impact on the economy, she said."

MY COMMENT

As usual......I agree with her comments and opinions above and outside this little article on DEFLATION. It is going to be the big long term issue and problem going forward for many years into the future.

BUT her stock picking, buying and selling. The stocks she sold above has losses of 81% and 75% year to date. those are MONSTER losses for less than six months. The article does not say if she lost money on these trades....but considering the size of the losses year to date I assume that she did.

She continues to say that she does not care about the short term...that she is focused on five years from now with her stock picks. Well.....for someone that claims to be.....five years long.....se sure seems to very actively buy and sell companies at the drop of a hat WAY BEFORE her five year time span. She jumps in and out of companies all the time on a very short term basis. Her buying and selling seems EXTREMELY erratic to me and totally out of line with her stated five year horizan.

As to her five year horizan statements.....as the article notes:

"....the five-year annualized return of Ark Innovation totaled 8.11% through June 22, far behind the S&P 500’s 11.05% return".

So her five year mantra......in reality....has so far NOT been shown to be true.

 

Good to have you back Smokie. You always have good commentary.

I agree with what you are seeing. Around my area it is the same. People are out everywhere. AND.....it is very rare to see anyone with a mask anymore even at the grocery store. People have decided to just move an and......screw the pandemic.

However.....even with everyone out and doing things.....I know that small business is still suffering. they took the brunt of the shutdown.....since NONE of the big businesses had to shut down or do anything......and they are still taking the brunt of the labor and supply issues right now.