NICE.....I just looked for the first time today and I have a good moderate gain going on. Six stocks UP and four stocks DOWN. A good start to the day. The markets "FEEL" like they have changed somewhat over the past 3 weeks. We seem to no longer be in the relentless drop that we saw for much of the first six months of the year. We seem to now be in a week to week erratic, volatile market environment where we are seeing a mix of good days and bad days. We also seem to have slowed down the big dramatic day to day moves that we were seeing before. Seems to me we have entered into a market that is trading in a defined RANGE. That does not mean that the negative direction is changed.....it just means that we will sit in the current range for a while....perhaps a long while. One thing about a range bound market.....it can last a long time......years in fact.
ACTUALLY.......I see this as good news in terms of the supply chain disruptions. Railroad bottleneck at nation’s busiest West Coast ports reaches inflection point https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/rai...est-coast-ports-reaches-inflection-point.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points 60% of all long-dwell containers at the Port of Los Angeles are rail-bound. Container wait for rail is a little over 8 days for the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. East Coast ports including the Port of Norfolk, Port of Savannah, and the Port of New York and New Jersey are seeing more shipping activity as a result. Rail congestion from Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary BNSF and Union Pacific, the railroads servicing the West Coast ports, is getting worse and slowing down container processing at the nation’s largest port complex. Slowdowns involving containers limits future availability and constricts supply, which can spark an increase in container prices. Congestion was one of the reasons behind the surging freight prices during the pandemic, prices that have been passed onto the consumer contributing to inflation. “60% of our long dwelling containers are scheduled to go on the rail,” said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles. “Our land capacity is at 90% .” The increase in time of the import containers staying in the port is one of the key metrics being tracked by the CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map. A terminal’s land capacity for the efficient movement of containers is 70-75% so the trucks and equipment can easily move. Vessel anchorage to berth times are steadily improving, allowing for more boxes to land onto terminals, but the fact that rail car capacities are limited will mean future containers may start stacking up in rail yards waiting to be loaded and moved appropriately, according to Captain Adil Ashiq, United States Western Region executive for MarineTraffic. “As these containers stack up, terminals may eventually run out of space, and be unable to take new imports – a slippery slope which may cause vessel dwell times to once again increase, or cause the carriers to instead call another port altogether and avoid the slowdown,” Ashiq said. Los Angeles, Long Beach wait times tick up The wait time for containers leaving the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach continues to tick up. The dwell time for a container bound for rail is 7.5 days at the Port of Los Angeles, and a little over 8 days at the Port of Long Beach. “We are at a point of inflection as to the rail bottlenecks, including the lack of rail cars at the nation’s largest and most significant container gateway,” said Mario Cordero, the executive director for the Port of Long Beach. The Port of Oakland’s two rail yards are near-dock, not “on-dock” like the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Port officials told CNBC roughly 10% of its imports are moved by train. The Pacific Northwest, however, relies on rail to move its imports and exports. The Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) is comprised of the ports of Tacoma and Seattle. These ports, like the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland are landlord ports. But unlike the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which track the dwell times of their containers bound for rail, the NWSA does not and referred CNBC to the terminals who do not share that information with the NWSA. The terminals did not respond to requests for comment. According to the CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map, the dwell times of an import container leaving the port of Tacoma or Seattle either by truck or rail is over 16 days for Seattle, and 8 days for Tacoma. “The decision of where a container bound for rail goes is decided by the ocean carriers,” said Jack Hedge, executive director of the Utah Inland Port Authority. “The carriers are limiting which inland ports to go to. If they were flexible to diversify their rail routes, it would ease the bottlenecks on the rails and free up congestion. But that would mean their containers would be inland longer.” Union Pacific said they were unable to comment on the congestion because they were in a quiet period due to upcoming earnings. BNSF’s plan to regain momentum BNSF, responding by email, said operational safety, service and efficiency are aligned throughout its network and “while this momentum is inconsistent at times, we are on the right path toward delivering better service performance.” BNSF noted that it deployed additional locomotives to its active fleet in April and May. “We are continuing to evaluate and adjust the number of additional units that may join the fleet in alignment with freight volumes,” it stated. BNSF is also focused on turning inventory in Chicago to get cars back to Southern California as quickly as possible. “As we move through June, our efforts are beginning to yield positive results with greater velocity and productivity levels,” its email stated. BNSF plans to hire approximately 3,000 additional employees this year, which includes new personnel for its engineering, mechanical, and dispatcher teams, and nearly 1,800 train, yard, and engine (TY&E) members. More than 257 (TY&E) members have completed their training and 237 more are anticipated to complete their training in the next 90 days. East Coast ports are taking more share The congestion at the ports and the threat of labor slowdowns or strikes by longshoremen have led to a parade of trade moving away from the West Coast to the East Coast. “From January through the month of May, we had an 11.5% increase in import containers,” said Bethann Rooney, director for the Port of New York and New Jersey. “6.5% of that volume was cargo shifted from the west coast ports.” Rooney said the ports have also seen an unusually early arrival in holiday items, including Christmas trees into the port, as well as winter apparel. Household appliances are also part of the long dwelling containers. The market share of trade captured by the east coast can be tracked by the volume of containers. The Port of Savannah, which is seeing vessels at anchorage for 10 days describes, said the volumes it is processing are “staggering.” “We expect 155 vessel calls in the month of July. 39 of these vessels, or 25%, are unplanned,” said Edward Fulford, spokesman for the Georgia Ports Authority. ”This is the highest volume of ad hoc and new service vessels the Port of Savannah has experienced to date. We know that the labor talks and delayed access to rail are prompting a significant shift in vessel calls to the East Coast.” The Port of Norfolk is seeing a trend of U.S. importers circumventing the West Coast congestion and using the port’s rail services. “Until [this] April, moving cargo east-to-west from Virginia to California by rail was unheard of,” said Tom Capozzi, chief sales and marketing officer of Virginia International Terminals. He said several cargo owners, importers in California who needed reliability and predictability restored in their supply chains, started using its on-dock rail service. He added, “We are seeing some cargo owners in California show interest in using the Hapag-Lloyd’s reworked MGX service where the containers that arrive on Hapag Lloyd ocean carriers are then moved by rail to Chicago and then loaded onto a UP rail car bound for the West Coast.” The first Hapag-Lloyd MGX service had nearly 1,000 containers that were loaded onto rail bound for California. The railroads that service the East Coast ports are Norfolk Southern and CSX. Railroad union dispute The Class I freight railroads and the twelve rail unions have been embroiled in a labor dispute since 2020 and are currently in a 30-day “cooling off period”. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently sent a letter to President Biden, copying Labor Secretary Marty Walsh and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, urging the president to get involved. “A strike by the railroad workers would be more disruptive than a longshoreman strike on the West Coast,” Hedge said. “This would impact all trade.” The National Mediation Board (NMB), an independent U.S. federal government agency that facilitates labor-management relations within the nation’s railroad and airline industries, is scheduling a public interest meeting, set to begin on July 12. The labor strife in Europe is an example of how labor at the rail or ports stops or slows down trade. Labor negotiations are at an impasse in the German ports and the congestion contagion has spread to other European ports. In an advisory to clients, METRANS Group explained they would enact a 48-hour suspension of trains as a result of 200 of its railcars waiting in front of the CTA terminal in Hamburg. Crane Worldwide Logistics says the current congestion building at the European ports will take over eight weeks to clear and will only increase as the logjam builds up. These containers waiting for export include autos, auto parts, and IKEA furniture and household items." MY COMMENT I actually see this as a good sign for the supply chain disruptions and the economy. We are clearing up the backlog of ships waiting outside the ports. As we do this, containers are tending to sit longer on the ground. The bottleneck has now shifted to rail capacity to load and move containers rather than ships siting out in the water. The bulge in the boa constrictor has moved down toward the tail. To me this is a good sign that we are making slow progress to get the supply chain back to normal. BUT.....it is still going to take a good amount of time.....perhaps another 6-12 months? As the article notes.....if containers pile up due to lack of rail......it will once again back up the number of ships that can unload. It is amazing the COMPLEXITY that is involved in getting the supply issues back to normal. BUT....this is a move forward. As with everything that was TOTALLY SCREWED UP by the economic closure.....it will be two steps forward and two steps backward......for a while. If and when we can get the ports operating efficiently....shipping costs should come down.....and this should be a positive for inflation.
Here are some little bits and pieces. Bitcoin heads toward best week since October as crypto collapse stabilizes https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/bit...ce-october-as-crypto-collapse-stabilizes.html A good week for stocks and a good week for Bitcoin. AND Tesla sells record high number of China-made vehicles in June https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/tesla-sells-record-high-china-made-vehicles-in-june.html "Key Points Tesla in June achieved its highest monthly sales of China-made vehicles since opening its Shanghai plant in 2019, as the U.S. carmaker ramped up output. Tesla sold 78,906 China-made vehicles in June, including 968 for export, the China Passenger Car Association said. Covid restrictions in Shanghai in the April–June quarter had hobbled Tesla’s output there while its new factories in Berlin and Texas struggled to increase output." Some good news for owners of TESLA....myself included. Now we need to get the Texas and Berlin plants running properly. It WILL happen.....it just takes time to go from bare ground to a fully built out and operating plant in about a year and a half.
It is likely that these morning posts will be it for me today. I will be tied up with a family party during the middle part of the day. As soon as it is over I need to bust out of here to get to a show that is about 100 miles away that has an early evening start time. Depending on when I can get out of the party.....I might be pushing it to get to the show and get set up......but I will get there. I will update my daily result today and the results for the week later this evening or tomorrow. You guys take care of the markets for me today......and.....SHOW ME THE MONEY.
I have seen Crypto discussed a few times throughout the thread. I personally don't have any investment in it, but have seen a few scary things recently like this brief article below. This would be a nightmare if you held with this particular company. I'm not posting this to throw shade at anyone who does do Crypto, invest how you wish as an individual. Be careful out there in the investing world. Crypto takes a trip to bankruptcy court About two months ago, when bitcoin was trading about 30% higher than it is now, Coinbase caused a stir by warning in an SEC filing that customers could lose their crypto assets if the exchange went bankrupt. CEO Brian Armstrong was able to calm things down, assuring customers that Coinbase was not at risk of bankruptcy. Still, the episode raised a thorny question: What happens to a customer's crypto if the company holding it goes under? Voyager’s bankruptcy filing this week will provide a real-world test. Voyager's customers have been locked out of their accounts for nearly a week. The crypto broker and lender suspended trading, deposits and withdrawals on July 1, saying it needed time to look for “strategic alternatives” amid a massive market slump. Voyager announced late Tuesday that it had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in New York federal court, blaming, in part, the default by crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital on a loan worth more than $650 million from Voyager. Voyager CEO Stephen Ehrlich said bankruptcy was the “best way to protect assets on the platform and maximize value for all stakeholders, including customers.” But the company's public statements and court filings make clear that it won't be a quick or easy process for customers to get their assets back. Under the proposed plan, crypto holders will receive "a combination of the crypto in their account(s), proceeds from the [Three Arrows] recovery, common shares in the newly reorganized company and Voyager tokens." Three Arrows was ordered into liquidation earlier this month, meaning Voyager will have to battle it out in the courts with other creditors for part of the capital it is pledging to customers. Cash deposits are frozen too. Voyager said that its bank partner, the Metropolitan Commercial Bank, is holding about $350 million in customer funds. Metropolitan released a statement on its website that "Voyager customer funds … are insured by the FDIC," up to $250,000 per depositor. But the bank added that FDIC insurance is "available only to protect against the failure of Metropolitan Commercial Bank," not Voyager. As writer and economist Frances Coppola wrote, Voyager described some of its products as FDIC-insured in the event of its own failure. It’s also not clear if “depositor” here means individual Voyager customers or Voyager itself, which maintains an omnibus account with the bank. Voyager said customers with U.S. dollar deposits will receive access after Metropolitan Commercial Bank's fraud prevention process is complete. Voyager’s promotion of its bank partner’s FDIC insurance could cause it more grief. The FDIC recently issued rules for dealing with false or misleading advertising of the availability of deposit insurance. Legal experts have long warned that a crypto bankruptcy would get messy for customers. “What can safely be predicted is that there will be litigation, and there will be delay,” as Adam Levitin, a law professor at Georgetown University who studies bankruptcy, told the Wall Street Journal in June. Crypto bankruptcies are still a relatively uncharted legal territory. And exchanges and other intermediaries lack the federal deposit insurance of banks or the coverage offered by the SIPC to member brokers. Stockbrokers are required to keep customer assets separate from their own accounts, offering protection in the case of a firm's insolvency. Without legal precedent for a crypto bankruptcy, Coinbase's Armstrong acknowledged in May that "it is possible, however unlikely, that a court would decide to consider customer assets as part of the company in bankruptcy proceedings." Voyager reported more than 100,000 creditors in its bankruptcy filing, who will each fight for their share of what's available. That means that customers need to move quickly to assert their claim, said Daniel Saval, a bankruptcy attorney with Kobre & Kim. That could include seeking membership on an official creditors committee. Voyager experienced a “run on the bank,” according to Ehrlich. It is far from the only company in such trouble. Celsius, which similarly offers customers high-interest accounts through a lending business, has blocked withdrawals for nearly a month now and has clashed with attorneys over whether to file for Chapter 11, according to The Block. Given the current state of the crypto space, “it is certainly a good time for customers to read the fine print of their user agreements,” Saval said. “How is your property going to be stored?” These questions will also stoke the push in Washington to put guardrails on crypto. — Ryan Deffenbaugh Protocol FINTECH.
On to the markets...the final hour and the BOSS has left his orders to "SHOW HIM THE MONEY!" So...lets bring this home in the final stretch and end this week right!!
Well, there it is. Kind of a struggle in the last hour. The last five minutes took us out of the running a bit. So, SP 500-Red, DJIA-Red, Nasdaq-GREEN. A mixed bag today to end the week. Overall, we did okay for the week actually. Still a little fight back being displayed. A lot of short term action to say the least. Anyway, better than expected and we live to fight another day. Any week or day we can mitigate the slide is more time forward. I have confidence and faith we will turn the corner at some point...and we will be there to capture it when it happens.
I think a lot of folks have been or were saying the "free money" was going to be an economy problem over a year ago. The article/FED below is a little late to the dance in this aspect. We are now having to pull all kinds of other levers because of it. The money has already been frothing about for some time. Anyway, at least this article discloses the fact it was/is a problem. Maybe the government has learned a lesson from all of this. Probably not. “The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to kill the economy, it’s just trying to end free money,” said veteran strategist John Stoltzfus. “Free money is bad in our view in that it encourages all kinds of speculation, it inflates asset classes.. and it creates instability in the economy,” added Oppenheimer’s chief asset management strategist. Stoltzfus’ comments come on the heels of last month’s jobs data highlighting continued tight labor market conditions. Market watchers see the latest print as an ‘all clear’ signal for the Fed to keep hiking rates aggressively in order to tame inflation. “Looks like July will be another 75 [bps], based on the unemployment numbers we had today. It looks like the economy can take it,” said the strategist. Stoltzfus — known for being one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street — recently scaled back his optimism for the S&P 500 year-end target. He and his team cut back their forecast for the benchmark index to 4,800 from 5,330. Last week, S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed out its worst first half of the year since 1970. "We've got high levels of inflation, 40 years high... so when you look at it, it's how far can equities go in the rallies," said Stoltzfus. "At 4800 it essentially implies a fairly flat year." The strategist is still bullish on U.S stocks, and the consumer. "The U.S. consumer when times are tough, gets the vacuum cleaner out, looks for coins behind the seat of the automobile, behind the sofa, and keeps spending to some degree. Not necessarily robust, but more resilient than naysayers would ever think,” he said. Ines Ferré ·Markets Reporter Yahoo Finance.
Well I hit five in a row today. Even though the close was mixed I ended up slightly in the green. I also got in a beat on the SP500 by 0.21%. This week was far better than I expected it to be.
TGIF.....here is how things are looking at the end of another week. DOW year to date (-13.76%) DOW for the week +0.77% SP500 year to date (-18.19%) SP500 for the week +1.94% NASDAQ 100 year to date (-25.70%) NASDAQ 100 for the week +4.66% NASDAQ year to date (-25.63%) NASDAQ for the week +4.56% RUSSELL year to date (-21.20%) RUSSELL for the week +2.41% A really good week....especially for the SP500, NASDAQ 100, and the NASDAQ....the guts of the market. We all had a good week this week and now we get to rest up for a couple of days and do it all over again. I am exhausted.....it is very hard just siting and doing nothing. But....that is the life of a long term investor.
I believe that the good news now is that the markets are pretty well sold out and have now settled into more of a range bound market. It was nice to end the week NOT at the bottom of the range. Now we have to move forward and try to NOT extend the bottom end of that range over the rest of the year.
Costco has been a solid holding for me for a long time. We were early shoppers at their stores in the Seattle area. At that time we were like a lot of suburban families with kids in school. We made a big shopping trip to Costco every month in addition to the normal grocery store. Costco is dominating retail as economy slows https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-is-dominating-retail-as-economy-slows-122545344.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "While the rest of retail begins cracking under the weight of consumers pulling back, Costco is proving to be the shining light in the current storm. Pros say Costco is gaining market share right now as shoppers consolidate trips and search for savings in bulk buying amid the period of high inflation. Costco is doing its part to feed that thesis. On Thursday, the warehouse retailer said that June same-store sales — excluding fuel sales — rose an impressive 13%. Store traffic surged 10.2% year over year and "core" U.S. sales improved 13.2% while e-commerce sales rose 13%. Overall, Costco notched sales increases in all of its merchandise departments, led by a mid-teens percentage increase in its food business. "Costco is the dominant leader in the attractive warehouse club channel," Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe wrote in a note to clients. "We see prospects for the company to deliver comparable sales 1-2 percentage above historical levels based on: 1) channel shift from traditional grocery, department stores, and specialty retail; 2) higher growth among Gen Y/Z demos w/ stronger skew toward club offerings; and 3) bigger baskets as customers increasingly shop categories beyond food." Tarlowe maintained a buy rating on Costco's stock with a price target of $580. The retailer's shares rose more than 1.5% to $502 as of 2:41 p.m. ET during Friday's trading session. Suffice to say, the news in retail over the past month or so has been anything but Costco-like. Discounter Target kicked off the concerns about the sector's health with a shocking decision to liquidate massive amounts of slow-moving inventory (notably in home goods) and take a more cautious view on near-term profits. Since then, retailers such as RH, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Kohl's issued financial warnings for the second quarter. Bed Bath & Beyond's outlook was so dire it prompted one analyst to tell Yahoo Finance Live the company may go out of business. Nike took a more measured approach to its full-year financial outlook when it reported quarterly earnings. Retail stocks — as measured by the SPDR S&P Retail ETF— have tanked 32% year-to-date, compared to an 18% decline for the S&P 500. The warnings have many retail analysts bracing for a stretch of bad earnings reports and share price reactions. "We remain downbeat on the near-term fundamental prospects in our space," Wells Fargo retail analyst Ike Boruchow wrote in a note to clients. "On top of that, our recent channel work suggests the space continues to soften: 1) foot traffic trends slowing further to end June and; 2) a promotional cadence that continues to worsen (especially in the mid-tier apparel space)."" MY COMMENT Simply an AMAZING company. A great business model, great execution and great management. the simply focus on doing what they do and repeat it over and over. I suspect that this stock will be a key holding for me for the rest of my life.....baring a management screw up that causes them to lose their way.
WELL....we finally made it to Google Split Week. It took a long time to get here after the announcement. We will all get 20 shares for every one that we own. If we are lucky there will be a bit of a jump in the price as people are able to buy the stock significantly cheaper after the split. Even if we dont see much of a bounce.....at least we all will feel good to see out share balance jump significantly.
I like this little article. Stock market: Here's what usually happens after a 20% plunge https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-usually-happens-next-to-the-stock-market-plunge-152810310.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "If there is anything to hang your hat on during the current bear market in stocks, it's that longer term markets tend to rebound very nicely. The S&P 500 has been higher three years later in eight out of nine cases in which the index has fallen 20% or more from an all-time high going back to 1957, according to research from Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner. Stocks have returned on average 29% during those eight cases. Interestingly, stocks have also sharply regained ground a year after falling 20% or more from a high. Lerner's data shows the S&P 500 has increased 15% on average in the seven times stocks have tanked 20% or more from a high dating back to 1957. "Given the wide range of outcomes," Lerner wrote in the note to clients, "our view is that this is not the time to be aggressive, but we are also not advocating reducing equities for investors who are aligned with their longer-term equity allocations. At this point, a lot of the excesses have been wrung out." Stocks often rally back after big drops. To Lerner's point, investors have moved quickly this year to re-price stocks amid sky-high inflation and a Federal Reserve locked and loaded on interest rate hikes. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are all having their worst starts to a year in several decades. Lerner points out more precisely that this is the third worst return at the halfway point for markets since 1950 and the weakest since 1970. Virtually no areas of the market have been spared from the bears' teeth. Growth stocks such as Amazon, Tesla, and Netflix are all down more than 30% so far in 2022. A relative safe-haven such as Apple is off by 18% on the year. Overall, markets continue to be on recession watch for the U.S., the world's largest economy. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is now predicting a 2.1% decline in Q2 U.S. economic output, which would meet the unofficial threshold for a recession when matched with the 1.6% decline in Q1. "This is actually a really difficult time to be thinking very long-term," BlackRock global allocation head of thematic strategy Kate Moore said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above). "We know that there are a tremendous number of crosscurrents right now in the market. It is not just monetary policy and the durability of inflation, but also kind of what is going on geopolitically." Three years from today couldn't get here quick enough for investors." MY COMMENT Yes......there is a good number of issues going on right now. Number one is how much the actions of the FED impact inflation.......if at all. Due to the number of potential issues going on right now it is not the time to get WILD and CRAZY in the markets. BUT......anyone that has held this far......has obviously gotten though the majority of the market drop. I am seeing anywhere from 10% to 15%......as the negative market potential right now. The way I have viewed big market drops in the past.......like 2008/2009......any money that I can put in within 10% of the market bottom.......I will do so all day long. If I can get a 25% to 30% discount on good iconic stocks......with 10% risk.....great.....I will take that gamble every time.
I like the tone of this little article......on a uniformly down day (Dow, Nasdaq, SP500, gold, silver, Biltcoin, etc, etc) Citi sees a surprising stock market rally into year-end https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-stock-market-rally-year-end-110843823.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "As recession fears swirl on Wall Street, Citi says corporate profits may surprise many later this year. And the stock market's performance should follow. "We see room for U.S. equities to work higher into year-end ‘22, triggered by more resilient earnings than commonly expected, and potential valuation relief as Fed hawkishness is more fully priced in," said Citi strategist Scott Chronert in a new note to clients. Chronert sees the S&P 500 rallying about 8% from current levels to end the year at 4,200. "We conclude that the inflation surge beginning about this time a year ago has mostly been an incremental positive for earnings growth," Chronert said. "Simply, strong pricing has offset supply constraints and upward cost pressure. We don’t expect a new structural paradigm at this point, but do think that current earnings tailwinds can continue in the immediate term." The S&P 500 finished Friday's trading session at 3,899. To be sure, markets continue to reflect greater caution in the outlook for corporate profits than conveyed by Chronert. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are coming off their worst starts to a year in several decades, and interest rates have risen faster than expected amid sticky inflation. Virtually no areas of the market have been left out in the broader re-repricing of risk assets. Previous high flyers such as Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX) are all down more than 30% so far in 2022. Apple (AAPL), often seen as a relative safe-haven, is off 18% on the year. Ten of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 are sitting on losses this year, with only Energy (XLE) in the green year-to-date. Earnings are also poised to be lackluster heading into second quarter earnings season. The estimated earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies in Q2 is 4.3%, according to data from FactSet. If that growth rate is hit, it would mark the lowest year on year growth rate reported by the S&P 500 since the fourth quarter of 2020. Additionally, 71 S&P 500 companies have already issued negative earnings guidance. "We do expect there are going to be [earnings] disappointments, but we do expect there will be some remarkable surprises over the course of the next few quarters," Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday, echoing Chronert's sentiment. Stoltzfus, one of Wall Street's most ardent bulls, recently lowered his 2022 S&P 500 year end target to 4,800 from 5,330." MY COMMENT Nice to see some positivity. BUT.....this is simply guesswork. Earnings this time, starting in the next week or two, will probably be ok.....but....the rope-a-dope guidance will tend to send many stocks down as they report. As a result I see earnings being mostly disconnected from......downward..... stock pricing over the next few months. I also see earnings season being a time of danger for the markets. There will be lots of "stuff" for the media to fear monger as a result.
Here is some of the "stuff" that long term investors will have to ENDURE over the short term this week. Inflation, earnings, and retail sales: What to watch this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-weekly-preview-week-july-11-174624638.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Financial markets have been preoccupied with one idea in recent weeks: recession. The coming week will offer more insight on whether inflation pressures are pushing business and consumer pullbacks that could tip the economy into recession. Friday's June jobs report cast doubt on the imminence of a wholesale downturn in the US economy. Last month, the US economy added 372,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%. "The strong 372,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June appears to make a mockery of claims the economy is heading into, let alone already in, a recession," said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics. Following this report, investors and economists were in broad agreement that continued strength in the labor market sets the table for another 0.75% interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve later this month. In the week ahead, investor attention will turn to Wednesday morning's inflation data for more clarity on this issue. Economists estimate headline inflation rose 8.8% last month, an increase that would be the highest since December 1981, and the hottest inflation reading of this current cycle. Ethan Harris and the economics team at Bank of America Global Research notice a more than 7% monthly increase in energy inflation pushing this data to another high. This reading on inflation, however, will come as energy and commodity prices have shown signs of moderating in recent weeks. Crude oil is down over 12% in the last month, while the price of commodities like corn, soybeans, and wheat were down over 20% through last Wednesday. Some analysts suggested recession fears and high prices have begun to result in demand destruction. Though analysts at JPMorgan noted last week that since 1965 oil demand has declined in just 10 years, and even increased during the recession of 1991. Harris and his team also wrote last week that whether the economy is in recession or not is "beside the point." "While underlying economic momentum may very well be stronger than the headline GDP data indicate, complicating the 'recession' question, it seems clear that US economic momentum has slowed," Harris wrote. And the calendar this week will offer investor further checks on just how much this slowdown is weighing on businesses and consumers, with the June retail sales report out Friday morning and updates on industrial production and consumer sentiment that same day serving as highlights. The week ahead will also bring the start of second quarter earnings season, with the usual early reporters from the financial sector getting things underway. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) are among the big banks set to release results, while typical early season reporters like PepsiCo (PEP) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) will also be closely watched for signs of either resilience or softening among US consumers. Investors will also keep a close eye on the Treasury yield curve, where the 2-year yield trades above the 10-year yield, an inversion that has historically preceded recessions. On Friday, the 2-year yield settled at 3.03% while 10-year yield stood at 3.01%. Meanwhile, stocks rallied last week as investors continue to try and repair the portfolio damage suffered during the worst first six months to a year since at least 1970. Yet the recent rebound in markets has been met with trepidation amid suggestions this turnaround could signal the start of something bigger. The 2-year yield settled above the 10-year yield on Friday, marking the first weekly settlement of an inverted yield curve since the summer of 2019. (Source: FRED) Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat, wrote in a note to clients on Friday that, "technically, markets look to be at resistance." "While July could prove choppy in the weeks ahead, it’s still more likely than not that a move down to new lows for 2022 happens into late July given evidence of rates turning back higher while the Dollar remains quite strong," Newton wrote. "While I remain a buyer on weakness, it's hard for me to have faith in this near-term recovery given lack of participation and weak upward breadth thrust thus far. One should remain defensive over the next 2-3 weeks until this churning runs its course."" "Economic Calendar Monday: Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, June (93.2 previously) Wednesday: Consumer price index, June, YoY (+8.8% expected, +8.6% previously); Core CPI, June, YoY (+5.8% expected, +6% previously); CPI, June, MoM (+1.1% expected, +1% previously); Core CPI, June, MoM (+0.6% expected, +0.6% previously); Federal Reserve Beige Book Thursday: Initial jobless claims (235,000 previously) Friday: Retail sales, June (+0.9% expected, -0.3% previously); Retail sales, control group, June (No growth expected, +0.1% previously); Empire State manufacturing index, July (-2.6 expected, -1.2 previously); Producer price index, June, MoM (+0.8% expected, +0.8% previously); Import price index, June, MoM (+0.7% expected, +0.6% previously); Industrial production, June (No growth expected, +0.1% previously); Capacity utilization, June (80.2% expected, 80.8% previously); University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary reading, July (49 expected, 50 previously)" "Earnings Calendar Monday: Before Market Open: No notable companies expected to report. After Market Close: No notable companies expected to report. Tuesday: Before Market Open: PepsiCo (PEP) After Market Close: No notable companies expected to report. Wednesday: Before Market Open: Fastenal (FAST); Delta Air Lines (DAL) After Market Close: No notable companies expected to report. Thursday: Before Market Open: JPMorgan Chase (JPM); Morgan Stanley (MS); Conagra (CAG), First Republic Bank (FRC); Cintas (CTAS) After Market Close: American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) Friday: Before Market Open: Wells Fargo (WFC); BlackRock (BLK); Citigroup (C); BNY Mellon (BK); UnitedHealth (UNH); Progressive (PGR); US Bancorp (USB); State Street (STT); PNC Financial (PNC)" MY COMMENT The event of the week will be all the big banks reporting this week along with Pepsi. Prepare yourself.....earnings as discussed in the MEDIA.....are going to be an event that long term investors simply have to ENDURE.
The good news for people like me......on Social Security.....the inflation data that is anticipated will be a good indicator of a BIG Social Security cost of living increase. We are in the three months right now that will set the amount of the increase which will be announced in early October. The markets may be down....but I will take any money anywhere I can get it so......Social Security.....SHOW ME THE MONEY.
NOTHING going on today. We are just lingering in the negative markets that have been the norm all year. A DULL and BORING time period for long term investors.
I dont see much confidence in the markets today.....up or down. Just a drifting day so far. We are trying to come back some.....late morning should give us more of a clue as to the final direction today. I looked at my account a minute ago. Eight stocks down and two up. The UP stocks were Honeywell and Home Depot. I have given back some of the cushion in my account that I accumulated over last week. I dont see a word in the media yet about the Google stock split that will happen on Friday. It is a forgotten event. One good thing for investors having to endure this year.....ALL of the long term investing content in this thread remains TRUE. Everything that we have been experiencing year to date is simply short term market behavior. Much of it is tied to events that have nothing to do with inherent stock FUNDAMENTALS. SO......it is simply a waiting game for investors that have a time horizan beyond the life expectancy of a fruit fly.
I am STILL looking forward to earnings on the companies that I own. It will be nice to see some REAL business data that is meaningful as an investor. Here is my earnings schedule: Tesla 7-20-22 Microsoft 7-26-22 Google 7-26-22 Honeywell 7-28-22 Apple 7-28-22 Amazon 8-4-22 Home Depot 8-16-22 Nvidia 8-24-22 Costco 9-22-22 Nike 9-22-22 I have them all down on my calendar. Of course these dates can change as we get closer to the report.
