as ed sullivan would say, and now for all you youngsters out there, the beatles! with billy preston on organ, who didn't get enough on camera time. turn it up!
Thanks for the shout out WXYZ. This thread is a joy for me to read and participate. I could not agree more on all of the other regular posters as well. I enjoy the exchange of ideas and opinions. The information in this thread from start to finish is very practical for anyone wanting to manage their plan with a long term approach and investing information overall. I find it valuable in many ways, I'm sure others do as well. I know it has helped me and if I can do my part while participating and it maybe helps someone in some small way...then we are all better for it. A couple of simple things I like about it is that it gives me (us) a place to support each other in terms of our long term outlook. We are committed to that investing style, but it never hurts to have encouragement from others to stay focused. It gives us a place to complain and celebrate at the same time. Secondly, I often go back and read earlier parts of the thread about a particular subject. Or I can come here just about any day and find out what the heck is going on as it relates to the market and so on. I really like how this thread is almost like a history book. I find the topics and discussion during different times very interesting. We are adding to it daily and will be able to look back and maybe learn something along the way. Many other positive things could be added and I could just go on and on about it...so I'll just sum it up and say...Thank you to all that are here...it's a great place to be.
I have been busy this past week tying up some loose ends on some property. I finally have it done and I have achieved VICTORY after a long, long, long battle. Sorry I can't go into detail since it was a family type deal...but I have out lasted and prevailed. It is now over.. and to the victor belong the spoils. I just wanted to add this to the history book. TGIF...is right. To end on GREEN and to have that done...I am going to crack open a cold beverage and enjoy a fabulous ending.
Thanks Smokie. What I get out of this thread is: 1. I get to hang out with some great people and great investors online. The STOCKAHOLICS site....in general.......is the best investing board on the internet. 2. Posting helps me to clarify my views and opinions. 3. The process of putting thoughts and opinions in writing reinforces those concepts in my brain. Similar to using VISUALIZATION techniques in sports, music, and other aspects of life. 4. I learn from the posts of others especially those that vary from my views. 5. At my age, the process of reading and posting every day helps to keep me mentally stimulated. This October....this thread will be 4 years old. At that point it will be starting to be a good LONG TERM record of the markets and the various investors that post here. Hopefully as a LONG TERM history it will be a good example for others of the power of long term investing. Also.....an example of how to deal with all the various "STUFF" that the markets throw at us over the short term.
I am posting this little article as an example. This thinking is way over the top. Inflation is NOT "TERRIFYING". It is a simple short term event that WILL pass in another 6-24 months. I dont know anyone in real life that is "terrified". Yes, people might be concerned and some people and businesses are being hurt.....but, come on.....lets keep things in perspective. Nothing Short of Terrifying Inflation keeps getting worse. https://www.city-journal.org/inflation-is-now-nothing-short-of-terrifying MY COMMENT I will leave it to everyone to click and read. There are some good points in the article about dealing with the issue. BUT....the article does a disservice to itself by HYPING the current situation as......"TERRIFYING".
HERE is the message that this thread is intended to reinforce. Stocks For the Long Run https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/07/stocks-for-the-long-run/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "I don’t believe there is one singular way to invest your money. If there was everyone would invest that way. Every strategy and philosophy has its pros and cons. The good strategy you can stick with is far superior to the great strategy you can’t stick with so a lot of this comes down to who you are as an investor. There are a number of factors that determine the type of investor you are. Experience shapes your views of the risk-reward nature of the financial markets. Your formative years as an investor and the various market environments you’ve lived through can have an outsized impact on how you invest your capital. Personality is a big one. I strongly believe your temperament and emotional disposition play a strong role in the type of strategies you’re drawn to as an investor. Mentors early on in your investment lifecycle can also determine the path you choose to take as an investor. My first boss in this business instilled in me the importance of asset allocation, portfolio construction and risk management when implementing investment plans. When I started that first job out of college my knowledge of the financial markets was as close to nil as you could possibly get. I had a steep learning curve because I didn’t know what I wanted to do with my life.1 So my other mentors when I finally decided to apply myself to the learning process were the authors of the books I was reading to play catch-up. I learned about investing at the school of John Bogle, Charley Ellis, Nick Murray, Warren Buffett and Jeremy Siegel. The biggest lesson these legends taught me was the importance of time horizon when investing your money. The ability to think and act for the long-term is one of the few advantages left in the markets. This is why I was such a big fan of Siegel’s Stocks For the Long Run. That book helped shape my understanding of the need to think in terms of decades when it comes to stock market investing. WisdomTree’s Jeremy Schwartz has been helping Siegel for a number of years when it comes to the research for his books. Schwartz recently shared some data for the upcoming release of the 6th edition of this classic. This one is a favorite of mine: There are no guarantees when it comes to investing in the stock market. As much as some people would like to think so, the stock market does not work like a casino. You don’t know the exact odds before placing a bet (or trade). But we do know that history tells us the longer you invest in the stock market, the greater your odds of success when it comes to beating safer assets. I don’t have data going back to 1802 but even if we look back at the period from 1928 to 2021, cash has beaten the stock market in 30 out of the last 94 years. So one-third of the time on an annual basis you would have felt better about yourself as an investor by simply sticking your money in a money market fund or short-term T-bills than investing in the stock market. However, the long-term average return on the stock market would turn $10k into more than $67k over 20 years. That same $10k in cash turns into just $18k. Does this mean you should blindly put all of your money into the stock market? Of course not! But thinking through the historical return profiles of stocks, bonds and cash can help you determine how to plan for time horizons ranging from short-term to intermediate-term to long-term and allocate your portfolio accordingly. Here’s another way of looking at this from Schwartz and Siegel: This one shows the range of outcomes depending on your holding period.2 The shorter your time frame the wider your range of returns in everything, especially the stock market. The longer you go out the less volatility there is in the average and range of results. My general rule of thumb is I don’t invest money in the stock market that I will need in the next 4-5 years or less. It’s just not worth the risk. On the other hand, holding cash for 2-3 decades at a time brings its own set of risks in terms of losing purchasing power. Here’s another way to visualize the volatility in stock market returns over time: I’ve seen studies that suggest the average holding period for a mutual fund for individual investors is around 3 years. After that people get bored or want to chase performance or simply find something new to invest in. Three years might seem like an eternity when you’re living through it (just think about everything that’s transpired over the past 3 years) but it’s relatively short in terms of stock market investing. Just look at the wild swings in rolling 3 year returns over time. Things begin to smooth out a bit once you get to 10 years, remain only in positive territory over 20 years and really narrow once you get to 30 years. Now look at the highs and the lows for each group: You can still get your face ripped off over a 3 year window of time in the stock market. At 10 years you can still lose a little money. The U.S. stock market has never been down over 20 or 30 year time frames. Could it happen? Sure, anything can happen. I can’t predict the future. But should that be your baseline when viewed in a probabilistic framework? Do you really want to bet against human ingenuity, corporate profits and the human desire for progress? I know I wouldn’t want to make that bet. There are lots of ways to succeed as an investor. Over the long run, the stock market remains the best place to do so, assuming you have the patience to make it there." MY COMMENT This pretty well sums it all up. Know yourself. Use the power of long term investing. Learn as much as you can about: "the importance of asset allocation, portfolio construction and risk management when implementing investment plans." In addition use and understand FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS......in your stock and fund picking.
Great post/article above. I like this line from it: The good strategy you can stick with is far superior to the great strategy you can’t stick with so a lot of this comes down to who you are as an investor. This is the foundation for any plan when starting out or if you are just restructuring your plan to fit a long term style. You have to be able to stick with it and it must be sound. That is why it is so important to take your time when developing your plan and researching what you want to do. If a person misses this step and just goes in blindly, you are more likely to tinker with things and jump around trying to find a strategy that works. Skipping or half heartedly doing this step is going to cost you money and potentially a lot of it. The other line: There are no guarantees when it comes to investing in the stock market. Absolutely critical to have in your mind starting out and throughout your investing lifetime. The sooner a person learns this lesson, the better investor you will become. Most of us have lived through some tough times. There will be more. The long bull runs are great and can instill confidence to any investor. Then the bear comes along and tears into your plan. This will test every investor and their plan. It can be painful, but it is experience that will prove invaluable in the long run. You will have to experience it to know what your threshold and tolerance level is...there is no way around it. There is a way through it though and everyone is different. You just have to find what you can stick with. Lastly, I would add this. As an investor, you need to be able to answer the "Why" you are investing. I know many would say "to make money", but it is really deeper than that. Of course that is the objective in simple terms, but it needs more purpose to help you stick to whatever your plan maybe. Maybe it is retirement related security, maybe it is being able to go on some nice trips later on, purchase a nicer home or property, or a number of different things. Once you can define that goal or purpose, it will make it much easier to stick with your plan. It will help you tune out the short term noise. Short term events or even some that last a little longer than we would like, have littered the roadway to success for many investors. Don't let it be you.
Earnings will be the big item for the markets this week.......since the FED is not meeting till the last week of July. Of course in addition to earnings we will have the usual media speculation about what the FED might do and inflation. Earnings season heats up amid renewed recession calls: What to know this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-to-know-this-week-july-17-2022-170058583.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The stakes are high on Wall Street this week as quarterly earnings seasons heats up with key results expected from companies including Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA), and Twitter (TWTR). Investors reeling from Wednesday’s CPI data may be dealt another blow if corporate financials show meaningful profit slowdowns, with higher costs, rising interest rates, and a potential slowdown in consumer spending all themes to watch. S&P 500 companies are expected to grow earnings at an estimated annual pace of 4.0% in the second quarter, the slowest rate of growth since year-end 2020 if realized, according to research from FactSet. On June 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q2 2022 was 4.0%. The estimated net profit margin for the quarter is 12.4%, a figure that would mark the second straight quarter in which the net profit margin for the index has declined year-over-year. Despite persistent headwinds, however, analysts project net profit margins for the S&P 500 will be higher for the rest of the year. “Investors will be looking for clarity during this earnings season on how companies are navigating rising costs and wages,” Treasury Partners chief investment officer Richard Saperstein said in a note, adding current earnings per share estimates are “overoptimistic given the deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop.” U.S. stocks rallied Friday but failed to recover from a turbulent week wrought by June's shock inflation report. All three major benchmarks finished lower for the week. On the earnings front this coming week, big tech results will begin rolling in, starting with Netflix results coming after the market close on Tuesday. The streaming giant expects to report a loss of 2 million subscribers in the second quarter, a key metric for investors. Shares have nosedived 70% year-to-date amid a broader rout in growth stocks. Tesla earnings will also be in focus after the close on Wednesday. Despite a COVID-related shutdown of its factory in China during the quarter, shipments from its Shanghai plant rebounded last month to hit a record. However, last month, CEO Elon Musk warned of a "super bad feeling" about the economy and said the company is set to trim about 10% of jobs and "pause all hiring worldwide" as fears of a recession grow. Tesla’s results also come as Musk prepares to battle Twitter in court after pulling out of a deal to purchase the social media platform. Twitter is scheduled to report quarterly results before the bell on Friday. Other notable names set to unveil their results include Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS) wrapping up bank earnings on Monday, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), United Airlines (UAL), AT&T (T), and Snap (SNAP). Economic worries continue Last week, inflation data showed consumer prices accelerated 9.1% year-over-year in June, the fastest annual pace since November 1981. On Wall Street, the figure spurred a wave of speculation that Federal Reserve officials may raise interest rates 100 basis points when they meet later this month. The move would mark the largest interest rate increase in three decades. Analysts at Barclays led by Ajay Rajadhyaksha considered talks of a full percentage hike an “overreaction” in note to clients Wednesday. “We also believe that if the Fed genuinely wants to hike 100bp in July, they would need to signal it to markets before the black-out period starts on July 16,” Barclays said. “Yes, they broke forward guidance at the June meeting by going 75bp despite ruling that out earlier, but the CPI report that month came well into the blackout period, and they felt like they needed to seize control of the inflation narrative.” If the Federal Reserve places too much emphasis on June's CPI reading, the Federal Reserve "risks creating a sense of panic," Andy Sparks, head of portfolio management research at MSCI said in a note. "It also runs the risk of overshooting and pushing an economy that had been showing signs of weakness into a full scale recession." Economists at Bank of America said last week they now expect a "mild recession" this year. The firm's equity strategists also updated their S&P 500 target to imply the index will fall 25% from its record high reached on Jan. 3, noting that the average drop in the stock market seen during recessions is 31%. The benchmark was down roughly 19.5% as of Friday's close. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said he would be open to backing an increase of one full percentage point if upcoming economic releases point to strong consumer spending but maintained his support for a 0.75% rate. The comments came on the heels of a similar signal made by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Wednesday, told reporters in St. Petersburg, Florida that “everything is in play” when asked about the possibility of a full percentage point hike. Data on retail sales and inflation expectations out Friday, however, appeared to temper some investor belief that a 1% rate increase will be coming later this month. According to data from the CME Group, markets are now pricing in a 29% chance of a 100 basis point move this month; on Thursday morning, this figure stood north of 80%." "Economic calendar Monday: NAHB Housing Market Index, July (66 expected, 67 during prior month), Net Long-Term TIC Outflows, May ($87.7 billion during prior month), Total Net TIC Outflows, May (1.3 billion during prior month) Tuesday: Housing starts, June (1.590 million expected, 1.549 million during prior month), Building permits, June (1.673 million expected, 1.695 million during prior month), Housing starts, month-over-month, June (2.7% expected, -14.4% during prior month), Building permits, month-over-month, April (-1.3% expected, -7.0% during prior month) Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended July 15 (-1.7% during prior week), Existing Home Sales, June (5.40 million expected, 5.41 million during prior month), Existing Home Sales, month-over-month, June (-0.2% expected, -3.4% during prior month) Thursday: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, July (-1.0 expected, -3.3 during prior month), Initial jobless claims, week ended July 16 (240,000 expected, 244,000 during prior week), Continuing claims, week ended July 9 (1.345 million expected, 1.331 during prior week), Leading Index, June (-0.5% expected, -0.4% in during prior month) Friday: S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, July preliminary (51.8 expected, 52.7 during prior month), S&P Global U.S. Global Services PMI, July preliminary (52.4 expected, 52.7 during prior month), S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, July preliminary (52.3 during prior month)" Earnings calendar Monday: Before market open: Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Prologis (PLD) After market close: IBM (IBM) Tuesday: Before market open: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Truist Financial (TFC), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), Ally Financial (ALLY), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Hasbro (HAS), Halliburton (HAL) After market close: Netflix (NFLX) Wednesday: Before market open: Biogen (BIIB), Baker Hughes (BKR), Comerica (CMA), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Northern Trust (NTRS) After market close: Tesla (TSLA), United Airlines (UAL), Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Discover Financial (DFS), Equifax (EFX), Elevance Health (ELV), Alcoa (AA), FNB (FNB) Thursday: Before market open: AT&T (T), Travelers (TRV), D.R. Horton (DHI), Blackstone (BX), Union Pacific (UNP), American Airlines (AAL), Dow (DOW), Nokia (NOK), Danaher (DHR), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Marsh McLennan (MMC), Interpublic (IPG) After market close: Snap (SNAP), Mattel (MAT), PPG Industries (PPG), Domino’s (DPZ), Tenet Healthcare (THC), Boston Beer (SAM), Friday: Before market open: Twitter (TWTR), American Express (AXP), Verizon Communications (VZ), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Schlumberger (SLB), Regions Financial (RF), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)" MY COMMENT By the time we are done with earnings I expect that they will be similar to last time. Just a bit weaker. I expect that the FED will stick with the 0.75% rate increase. They have to do so to avoid even more of an impression that they dont know what they are doing and are in panic mode. Our share balances on Monday for Google are going to look pretty nice.
I have been siting and listening to the business TV and watching the markets since about 8:30. It is a good way to start off the week. It also sounds like earnings are doing ok. BUT....we have many weeks to go for earnings and it will be a day to day up and down situation. I am sure it will be like last time.....I saw many negative opinions and speculation as earnings reporting moved forward. I saw very few reports that outlined the generally good percentage of SP500 companies that were reporting good results. The media tended to focus on individual results and IGNORE the good general results. I continue to say......there is a different "feel" to the markets since July 1. We have had many positive days and seem to have bottomed out from the constant down market action that we saw week after week for the first six months of the year.
I like this little article. Another Multi-Decade Inflation High Falling uncertainty, not inflation, is likely key to returns from here. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/another-multidecade-inflation-high (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Editors’ Note: Inflation has become a hot political topic, and we aren’t commenting on it from that standpoint. We are looking at the investment-related implications only. 9.1%. That is the latest multi-decade high the US’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year inflation rate hit in June. When headlines weren’t stewing over what the acceleration from May’s 8.6% means for the Fed’s decision making at its next meeting in two weeks, they were looking for some signs—any signs—that the pain will soon end.[ii] We understand the impulse: The more prices rise, the more it creates hardship for many and forces people to forego things. Inflation has also sent political rancor to the boiling point, which is never pleasant. But from an investing standpoint, pinpointing inflation’s peak isn’t necessary. Stocks don’t need prices to ease—inflation is just one of seven or eight (at least) items weighing on sentiment right now. The key to recovery isn’t fundamental improvement, but gradually easing uncertainty on a multitude of fronts. The main source of uncertainty underlying inflation right now is the main contributor: energy prices. Those rose 34.6% y/y, which included a 48.7% rise in gas prices.[iii] (Ugh.) That led to a sharp divergence between headline and core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices—not because they are meaningless (they aren’t), but because they are quite volatile and can occasionally mask underlying trends. Core CPI actually ticked a wee bit slower, from 6.0% y/y in May to 5.9%. That doesn’t mean inflation is for sure slowing from here, but it does cut against the notion that all prices are accelerating rapidly. Perhaps equally encouraging, core goods prices (meaning, goods excluding energy and food) continued decelerating. We bring this up because energy prices aren’t the only place where oil prices can affect broader consumer prices. Oil is a feedstock for a number of consumer products—pretty much anything including plastic or other petrochemical derivatives, such as shoe soles, will have oil as an input. Early-year metals spikes flowed through to consumer products similarly. Combined, these are big reasons core goods inflation spiked to 12.3% y/y in February. But it is down significantly since, reflecting easing commodity prices across the board. Core services prices have accelerated a bit, likely tied to higher operating costs, labor shortages and the general supply and demand imbalance caused by lockdowns and reopenings. If you have attempted to travel by air this summer, you know exactly what we are talking about. But the more these dislocations even out, the more prices should stabilize. Exhibit 1: A Deeper Look at Core Inflation Source: FactSet, as of 7/13/2022. Of course, we also realize that it is the aforementioned oil and gas prices that are giving people the most angst today, and understandably so. On a month-over-month basis, gas prices jumped 11.2% in June, piling onto May’s 4.1% rise.[iv] There is a lot—and we mean a lot—of chatter about why gas prices are still jumping, given crude oil is now down below $100 per barrel—well off March’s high. The answer, unfortunately, doesn’t point to quick relief: US refining capacity is down, so even with the remaining refineries running more or less at pre-pandemic capacity, supply is tight. (Exhibit 2) Gas prices move on supply and demand for gasoline, so limited supply—coupled with resurgent demand in the first real summer of travel after lockdowns—is causing severe pain at the pump. Exhibit 2: Gasoline Refining Capacity Is Constrained Source: US Energy Information Administration, as of 7/13/2022. Now, with that said, we could yet see lower oil prices flow through to gas prices. Contrary to popular belief, the crude oil spot price doesn’t determine what refineries pay. Most of these deliveries are locked down well in advance based on futures contracts—agreements to deliver oil in the future at a pre-arranged price. Depending on when a given contract was signed, refiners could still be paying well over $100 per barrel. But futures prices for delivery later this year are down across the board, which—in theory—should mean refiners’ input costs are slated to drop. This, at least in theory, should bring some relief. Beyond oil, two factors could drive gas prices back down: rising supply or falling demand. The former is an exceedingly tall order, and we wouldn’t count on it. Refiners could crank up output a wee bit, presuming labor shortages and deferred maintenance aren’t insurmountable obstacles, but the infrastructure is old. Restarting mothballed refineries could work in theory, but many have been slated for demolition. Those that are for sale have attracted no buyers, and the longer they remain idle, the harder and costlier a restart becomes. As for building new facilities, the US hasn’t added a new major refinery since 1976, and changing that now seems next to impossible. Oil and gas companies are unlikely to take the risk—and shoulder huge up-front costs—at a time when gasoline-fired internal combustion engines are out of favor politically around the world. (We aren’t weighing in on the merits of that, just stating it as a fact that could dissuade a very long-term investment.) So, demand will likely be the swing factor. As high prices motivate people to cut consumption, we should eventually see some relief. This may not be the most satisfying solution, but it is how markets work. Another thing markets do when prices are high and perceived shortages create opportunity: Spur innovation. That is happening today in the fuel world, with a number of startups globally working on synthetic fuel. We aren’t talking about ethanol—we are talking about really cool new technology allowing producers to create fuel from CO2, creating a one-to-one replacement that could power internal combustion engines. Sportscar manufacturers have quietly invested in this technology for a while, seeing it as key to preserving their cars’ after-market value, and high gasoline prices have spurred a wave of new investment this year. It won’t be an immediate substitution for gasoline—and it won’t offer immediate relief at the pump—but it is a fascinating development that could bring transport costs down over time and make oil prices much less of a factor. In the meantime, though, we think inflation is less of a factor for markets than fear of it. Fear that it will stay this high indefinitely. And that fear is combined with a number of intersecting fears, including interest rates, supply chains and China’s intermittent lockdowns, not to mention the all-encompassing recession chatter. It has created a massive cloud of uncertainty. The more clarity investors get on these fronts, provided things don’t get massively worse from here, the more it should help stocks get over today’s jitters, map out the likely future, and move on. If signs of stabilization in core prices help that, great. If the relief in oil and other commodity prices help too, then also great. But when considering inflation and stocks, we suggest putting your focus there—the potential for falling uncertainty over the foreseeable future—and not inflation’s near-term ups and downs." MY COMMENT Fear and concern over inflation is misplaced. What people should be focusing on as the CORE issue for the economy is the continued disruptions and the apparent INABILITY of the economy to recover and normalize from the shut down. Inflation is just a symptom and indicator......the real issue is the continued disruption of the supply chains, shipping, labor markets, etc, etc, etc.
I saw a story earlier about some poor teen that bought a used electric car. She loved it until it began to have issues about six months later. At that point she found out that it needed a new battery. BUT......the battery would cost $14,000.....way more than was paid for the car itself. To make it worse......even at that price......the battery was not available at dealers and was no longer being manufactured. We are opening a BIG CAN of WORMS with the premature push to try to move people quickly to electric cars. The energy grid could not come close to handling it, the infrastructure does not exist, and most people dont want to spend 15-30 minutes wasting time while their car recharges. AND....those savings you thought you were racking up by not buying gas......will quickly go out the window when you end up needing a new battery. It is like solar panels.......I did a very deep financial dive into solar panels when I thought we should add them to our house. The bottom line......financially they DID NOT make sense for the initial purchaser. There was NO WAY that I would save money....even after all the energy rebates. The upfront cost, the ongoing cost to replace inverters and other items that would be needed over the years, how long I would need to own the house, etc, etc, etc.......make it IMPOSSIBLE to actually save money. I actually was able to find a few mainstream articles that came to the same conclusion. This is the dirty little secret of solar panels......if you are the initial installer.
Here is the short term news today. Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise as earnings season picks up https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-18-2022-105401497.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks rose early Monday as Goldman Sachs (GS) reported earnings and revenue that blew away Wall Street estimates and investors readied for earnings season to ramp up. The S&P 500 gained around 0.9% at the opening bell, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 350 points, or 1.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1%. The Wall Street Journal reported that Federal Reserve officials "signaled they are likely to raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage point later this month." Expectations for a 100 basis point hike from the Fed at its next meeting on July 26 and 27 rose last week after a hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) read for June. Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs rounded out bank results ahead of the trading session Monday. Goldman Sachs reported a smaller-than-expected 48% drop in second-quarter profit, as losses were partially offset by strength in its fixed income trading business. Meanwhile, Bank of America saw its profit fall 34%, dragged down by a decline in investment banking revenue amid slower dealmaking activity. The results come after the financial sector logged its best intraday rally since May on Friday, buoyed by a notable second-quarter beat from Citigroup (C), a day after traders assessed disappointing financials from JPMorgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS). JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon cautioned on Wednesday in a post-earnings call that risks to the U.S. economy appear “nearer than they were before" and said the outlook will depend on “the effectiveness of quantitative tightening, and defective, volatile markets.” Similar commentary is expected from leaders across Corporate America this week as more companies reveal how their businesses held up during a volatile last quarter. Not only are numbers projected to reflect milder profits, but traders are also bracing for potential downward guidance revisions as companies outline the impact of surging prices, quantitative tightening, and war in Ukraine on their business prospects. “The most important indication for the economy over the next few weeks will be earnings releases as companies report,” Gargi Chaudhuri, Head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas at BlackRock said in a note. “We will be watching to see whether companies are still able to keep pushing higher prices to their consumers, and which sectors are significantly revising down their earnings forecast for the future,” Chaudhuri added. “We will also be watching to see how much recession risks will be noted in feature in earnings calls.” Over 70 companies are scheduled to release results this week. Big tech earnings are set to trickle in, starting with Netflix (NFLX) after market close on Tuesday, Tesla (TSLA) after the bell on Wednesday, and Twitter (TWTR) before the start of trading Friday. Monday’s moves in markets build on a rally Friday that saw stocks close sharply higher as Wall Street attempted to shake off losses from a turbulent week wrought by June’s shock CPI print. Still, all three major indexes closed the week lower." MY COMMENT It will probably be all about EARNINGS this week and even next. It is clearly locked in that the FED is going to raise rates by 0.75%. That leaves the big issue for the markets as earnings. It will be nice to have a few weeks where fundamental company data is the REAL driver of the markets.
Speaking of the FED.......and the fact that I paid $3.99 per gallon of gas yesterday.....I totally agree with this little article. Why the Fed won't raise interest rates by 100bps next week, according to Goldman Sachs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-interest-rates-july-goldman-sachs-105949509.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Federal Reserve will stop short of unleashing its inflation-fighting bazooka when it meets to decide the fate of interest rates later this month, economists at Goldman Sachs think. "This softening of inflation expectations is one reason why we expect the FOMC will not accelerate the near-term hiking pace and will deliver a 75bp hike at the July FOMC meeting," Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note to clients. Hatzius also pointed to declining gas prices as important inputs into the Fed not raising rates 100 basis points at its July 26-27 policy meeting. Is inflation starting to roll over? (Source: Goldman Sachs) Soon after last week's hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) read for June, the expectation for a 100 basis point hike from the Fed at its next meeting shot higher. Eye-popping increases for goods were littered throughout the report. For instance, the index for butter and margarine skyrocketed 26.3%; dental services costs increased 1.9% in the month, the fastest pace since 1995; the food at home index rose 12.2%, the largest 12-month gain since April 1979. The June Producer Price Index (PPI), meanwhile, spiked 11.3% on surging energy costs. A couple of Fed officials quickly tamped down talk of a 100 basis point rate increase in a few weeks, which had begun to pressure stock markets globally. "It probably doesn't make too much difference to do 100 basis points here and less in the other three meetings (in 2022) or to do 75 basis points here and slightly more in the remaining three meetings of the year," St. Lous Fed President James Bullard said at an event in London on Friday. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, speaking at an event held by the Tampa Bay Business Journal, also reportedly pushed back on the need to lift rates by 100 basis points. Market participants now expect a 29% chance of a 100 basis point rate hike at the Fed's next meeting, down from more than 80% in the moments following the CPI Index release. "I'm in the camp of 75 basis points," KKR balance sheet CIO and head of global macro and asset allocation Henry McVey on Yahoo Finance Live (video above). "These are big increments — 100 basis points is a big number. They're trying to get their interest rate to the neutral rate to kind of neither have too much inflation or too little. But growth is slowing as we're doing that. So I probably would do another 75 basis points and then keep the option open for 50 basis points."" MY COMMENT I see no chance of a 1% increase. If it happens the FED will lose credibility and look like they are in PANIC mode.
At the moment I am tempted to call the market bottom as July 1, 2022. BUT.....I still believe there is a potential 10-15% more room to the downside of the averages going forward. So I will say.......I believe that the worst is OVER......and the PROBABILITIES are that we are at.......or.......close to the bottom of this market event. With what is still going on in the economy......I anticipate that......the recovery from the bottom, this time around, could take longer than people expect. One thing is clear......as usual.....when the markets turn positive the move UP will be EXPLOSIVE. I definitely want to participate in those early market gains that usually happen before investors are aware that the markets have turned. So, I will continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
I just looked at my accounts for the first time today. EVERY position is in the green......as I expected. My BIG winners so far today are Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla. My current LOSS year to date is now (23.3%). My recent trading range seems to be between about (-20%) and (-28%). If nothing else.....the current little market bump up is giving me a nice cushion for the next move down.
Rising Social Security payouts, housing values and incomes........and......your favorite topic......YOUR TAXES. How soaring inflation may deliver a higher tax bill — especially for retirees, homeowners and high earners https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/18/how...y-deliver-a-higher-tax-bill-for-retirees.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Annual inflation rose by 9.1% in June, growing at the fastest pace since late 1981, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. While the IRS adjusts some provisions of the tax code every year for rising prices, others remain unchanged. Some retirees may feel the sting since the income limits for taxes on Social Security benefits stay the same. As the cost of living surges, Americans wrestle with higher prices on day-to-day costs, including groceries, housing and gasoline. But there’s another sneaky expense — higher taxes — that may be costly for some taxpayers. Those most at risk of a tax-related surprise include retirees, high earners, homeowners and residents of particular states. Annual inflation rose by 9.1% in June, growing at the fastest pace since late 1981, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Why inflation could lead to surprise tax bills Each fall, the IRS makes inflation adjustments for the coming year on a range of tax provisions. The IRS boosted federal income tax brackets for 2022 and adjusted many other provisions, includingstandard deductions, 401(k) plan limits and more. But other provisions remain unchanged and are not adjusted for inflation, leading to higher levies over time. “It’s a hodgepodge of things that get left out,” said certified financial planner Larry Harris, director of tax services at Parsec Financial in Asheville, North Carolina. “And it’s not just hitting wealthy taxpayers.” Low limits for taxes on Social Security benefits While soaring costs won’t hurt all retirees, some seniors may feel the sting at tax time because the limits for levies on Social Security benefits have stayed the same for decades. Currently, up to 85% may be taxable if adjusted gross income, levy-free interest and one-half of Social Security benefits exceed $34,000 for single filers and $44,000 for married couples filing jointly. However, recipients received a record 5.9% cost-of-living adjustment for 2022, boosting the average payment by $92 per month. And it may jump by an estimated 10.5% for 2023, which would amount to another $175.10 monthly benefit increase, according to The Senior Citizens League. “I think the intent was to have more Social Security benefits taxable over time,” said Leonard Burman, institute fellow at the Urban Institute and co-founder of the Tax Policy Center. “And it was a way to slow the hemorrhaging of the Social Security trust fund.” The Social Security trust fund may receive more than $45 billion from taxing benefits in 2022, up from $34.5 billion in 2021, according to estimates from the program’s trustees. Fixed exemptions for home sales profits You may also pay higher taxes when selling a home. Joint filers may exclude up to $500,000 of profit from capital gains taxes and single sellers can shield up to $250,000, provided they meet the ownership and use tests. But these amounts haven’t changed since 1997, despite median home sales prices more than doubling over the past 20 years. The profit margin for median-priced homes was 47.2% in April, according to real estate data company ATTOM, which translates to $103,000 in gross profits for the typical home. Of course, profits may be higher depending on the market and original date of purchase. These fixed limits are by design, according to Burman. “I think the intent was for that exemption level to decline in value over time,” he said. “Basically, it’s a way of phasing in a tax increase or at least limiting the revenue costs.” Higher earners pay a surcharge Another fixed provision is the thresholds for a 3.8% surcharge on investment income put in place by former President Barack Obama. The levy kicks in when modified adjusted gross income passes $200,000 for single filers and $250,000 for couples, and those floors haven’t adjusted, creating a tax hike for higher earners every year, Harris said. And the controversial $10,000 limit on the federal deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT, hasn’t budged since 2018. House Democrats passed a bump up to $80,000 through 2030 as part of Build Back Better, but the legislation has stalled indefinitely. “It really does hammer lots of people depending on what state you live in,” Harris said. Some state taxes don’t adjust for inflation Some filers may also have higher state tax burdens in places without inflation adjustments for tax brackets, the standard deduction or personal exemptions. While 41 states and the District of Columbia tax wages, 23 have at least one major unindexed tax provision, according to a Tax Foundation analysis, and 13 don’t index any of these components. That amounts to an “unlegislated tax increase every year,” the analysis argues, reducing wage growth and return on investment, particularly during inflationary periods. While unchanged provisions may sting certain taxpayers during inflationary periods, it’s difficult to gauge the damage without a tax projection, Harris at Parsec Financial said, adding that most people’s returns have “too many other moving parts.”" MY COMMENT Most of us have never paid capital gains tax on the sale of a home. BUT....many people are going to be in for a very nasty surprise when they sell their home and find out that the rising values have bumped their gain over the $500,000 limit per couple. We have owned our current home for just over three years and we would have to pay capital gains tax on about $300,000 of gain.....even after the $500,000 exemption....... if we sold our house today. At that level of gain......you are talking about real money in the taxes. The so called......"high earner surcharge"........WOW.....many people that are definitely NOT high earners.....for where they live.....are now hit by this extra little 3.8% tax. With the current increases in wages and salary.....many more people are going to find out to their shock and surprise......that they are RICH. There is a reason that nearly every time you see the amount of taxes that are collected by government.......that the figure is setting a new all time record. BUT......hey, dont worry.......all these taxes are ONLY going to impact the ........."RICH". Taxes going to government are a HUGE drag on the economy. Their appetite is insatiable. As we see all the time....they always want MORE, MORE, MORE. I am very thankful every time I do our taxes.....that I structured our retirement income and assets to MINIMIZE our tax obligations. TAX THE RICH......sounds good to most people.....in theory......till they find out that with their wages and other items that they are the......."RICH". Government has to get all that FREE MONEY they love to spend and give away from someone.
Yes, it is going to be all about earnings for a bit. It is always interesting to see and evaluate, especially the companies one invests in or maybe even one that you might have been doing some research on. I'm sure the media will jump on anything to make headlines as usual. However, as has been mentioned, it will give us some "good" data to examine.
Looks like the markets are losing some of the steam they had from early in the day. Kind of a mixed bag at the moment.
YEP.....the dreaded late day FADE. Yes.....I am talking about the markets....not a haircut. I took a mild haircut in my account today. BUT....hey.....I beat the SP500 today.....by 0.03%. About as minimal of a beat as you can get. I still had four stocks UP today....Amazon, Nvidia, Home Depot, and Tesla.
Here is a little article for any that are considering how to get started. Of course there is TONS of information out there on the internet. How to Invest in Stocks for Beginners Here's how to start investing in stocks. https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/investing-in-stocks-for-beginners (NO BOLD on this article....everything in here is important) "Investing in stocks has become increasingly accessible, with beginners able to open an account with little money through a brokerage's website or mobile app. Stock represents an ownership stake in a company as a common shareholder. Common stocks allow shareholders to vote on company issues, with most companies granting one vote per share. Some companies also offer stockholders dividend payouts, giving investors a stream of income on top of the market value of the stock. These payouts typically change based on the company's profitability. Stocks are considered a risk asset that can provide growth and income to an investment portfolio. This means it's an asset class that carries a high degree of price volatility. With stocks, beginner investors must consider the degree of risk that they can take. Typically, the more risk in an investment, the greater the potential reward. But investors need to be willing to take the risk of losing money in case high returns don't come. History shows that stocks have been a reliable asset class for strong annual average returns over time. In 2022, stocks have taken a dive as the highest inflation in 40 years drives steep interest rate increases and stokes fears of an economic downturn. The gloom has ensnared some of the market's biggest names, particularly tech stocks, which have been pummeled. Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. (ticker: META) is down 53% this year through July 14, Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock has shed 16%, and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has dropped 24%. But one need only glance at last year's market performance for evidence of how quickly things can change in the stock market. The S&P 500, an index of some of the biggest U.S. stocks, climbed 27%, driven by gains in some of the very same companies recording steep losses this year, including Meta Platforms, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL). If you had invested in these companies or the index as a whole through an index fund, your investments would have increased in value considerably last year. Here's what else you need to know about investing in stocks: Where to start investing in stocks. How much money should you start investing in the stock market? Have an investing strategy, especially during market volatility. How to choose which investments to make. Invest on your own or with a financial advisor? Stocks for beginner investors. Use dollar-cost averaging. When to sell a stock. Where to Start Investing in Stocks The first step is for you to open a brokerage account. You need this account to access investments in the stock market. The next step is to fund your brokerage account by transferring money from your bank account to fill trades of stocks you want to buy. The amount of money you choose to invest depends on your risk tolerance, goals and how much money you're comfortable potentially losing. Remember that while, over time, the stock market typically increases in value, there can be short-term market fluctuations, which can put your money at risk. How Much Money Should You Start Investing in the Stock Market? Several online brokers such as Betterment don't charge fees for a $0 account balance, nor do they require a minimum amount to open a trading account. You can start investing through these brokerages with any amount. Some also offer fractional shares, meaning you don't have to buy an entire share of a company if you can't afford it. Discount brokers are a boon for beginners with little money who are often looking to get stock market exposure with smaller portfolios. But a discount broker typically does not provide advice or analysis. Many of these brokers don't require a minimum amount to start an account, while some have a low beginning threshold of $1,000. Have an Investing Strategy, Especially During Market Volatility It is normal for the stock market to experience bouts of volatility. During those periods, stocks, even ones considered relatively safe, experience price fluctuations. This can happen when there is uncertainty in the markets and tends to be short-lived. "Over the long run, we have seen a 10% or greater downturn in the stock market more frequently than once every two years (on average)," says Daniel Beckerman, president of Beckerman Institutional in Ocean Grove, New Jersey. You should prepare to be invested during these rough periods, Beckerman says, if you expect to do well throughout your investment time horizon. Volatility can certainly be concerning, especially if you are a beginner who hasn't experienced it before. That said, you should put your money in companies that can generate consistently growing revenue and profit over a long period. That way, you have confidence in the company despite the stock's price swings. "We consider a company's ability to fend off competition," Beckerman says. "If a company is hard to compete with, they will be less likely to run into trouble with falling revenue and profits in the future. They are also more likely to be in a position to be able to raise their prices in an inflationary environment, as we have experienced." He also notes that volatility can be your friend. Bear markets, like the one that has plagued the markets in the first half of 2022, can be great buying opportunities. "The tricky part is that we don’t know the date that a bear market is going to end," Beckerman says. "However, if we take an average of the previous 10 bear markets, the stock market tends to provide positive returns of over 14% a year after having entered the bear market." When investors have conviction in a company and its stock price falls, they may see this as an opportunity to buy more of the stock at a better price. How to Choose Which Investments to Make Beckerman says that by looking at a company's metrics, you can gain insight into how companies and industries are performing. "For example, when price-earnings or price-sales ratios are elevated, we can get some sense as to when certain stocks or industries are priced in bubble territory," he says. "This was the case in 2021, when many unprofitable technology stocks were trading in what I would think of as overvalued territory." Valuation is an important factor when stock picking. Company profitability, earnings growth prospects, quality of management and industry performance are some factors investors must consider when evaluating a stock's worth to determine whether it is undervalued or overvalued. Stock valuations, Beckerman says, provide investors with some color around the sentiment regarding various industry groups. A stock's price can be different from its intrinsic value. To know how to value a stock, investors must dig into the company's financial reporting history, understand the company's role in its industry and how it fares among its competitors, among many other factors. "Avoid stocks that are speculative in nature with no historical performance on growth and management expertise," says Alex Vela, a portfolio manager at FBB Capital Partners. He says to target companies with at least a five-year track record, and a management team that has clear goals and objectives. "Equally important is if management is implementing any ESG policies that lead to socially sustainable business practices," he says, referring to environmental, social and governance initiatives. There are two ways to secure profits from stock investing: selling shares when their market value goes up and dividend payments. Dividends are payments in either cash or stock made by the company to the shareholder on a monthly, quarterly or annual basis. Dividend payments are a way a publicly traded company shares its wealth with its investors. Investors who want a steady stream of income from their stock portfolios invest in companies that share their profits in the form of dividends. Dividends are known to be a reliable form of income because they can be distributed even if the company doesn't make a profit. Investors can either secure dividends as income or reinvest them for a greater return in the long run. Many dividend stocks have an established record of strong cash flows, carry low debt and offer competitive yields. Invest on Your Own or With a Financial Advisor? Investing in stocks can be done in many ways, but before you start investing, it's important to determine what type of investor you are. Decide whether you want to take a do-it-yourself approach or work with a professional financial advisor who can advise you through your wealth management. Rob Burnette, CEO, financial advisor and professional tax preparer at Outlook Financial Center, says to ask yourself two questions: "First, how much time and resources are you willing to commit to personally managing your accounts? Second, how diligent will you be regarding getting initially educated and continuing that education for life?" To take the do-it-yourself approach and manage your own investments, you can open an online brokerage account. If you're unsure about where to start, consider opening an account with a robo advisor, which will do some of the heavy lifting at a lower cost. "Most advisors won’t work with small accounts even though there is nothing potentially better than speaking with an advisor that is a fiduciary," Burnette says. "The advice can be more focused, and you can get direct answers to direct questions rather than relying on the person that picks up the phone at a call center." He says beginning investors may be able to find a fiduciary advisor with low or no account minimums. Once you open an online brokerage account, you're asked questions to determine an investment strategy that will assist in your investment decisions. These questions involve knowing your specific financial goals – such as retirement or a big purchase – and your risk tolerance, which is the degree of market variability you can withstand in your investments. Define your goals before you start investing. These will drive your decision-making processes. For example, if early retirement is your goal, you may want to skew your portfolio toward more growth-oriented investments in an effort to generate the highest return possible. But if you're working toward a goal that's closer at hand, such as buying your first house, you'd be better off with a more moderate portfolio so you don't run the risk of your investments losing value when it's time to make the purchase. If you're not sure how to materialize your long-term financial goals and where to start with your investing plan, working with a financial advisor may be right for you. "Many people choose to hire someone who specializes in the field so they can take advantage of their expertise and so they don’t need to worry about the things they may miss or that they don’t know," says Jeffrey Wood, an investment advisor and partner at Lift Financial. "It also helps to have a trusted advisor that you can call with questions and concerns." Financial advisors can protect you from making decisions that may not work to your benefit. If you want to buy individual stocks, you must understand that they can carry much more risk than other securities such as mutual funds or exchange-traded funds. That said, if you are not sure how much of your money you should allocate toward stocks, you can work with a financial advisor to develop a strategy. Financial advisors can help with other areas of financial planning, too, such as college planning, tax and estate planning, asset protection and helping loved ones, Beckerman says. "We are finding that investors who started with an online platform are migrating to us once their needs become more sophisticated." Stocks for Beginner Investors Thinking you can consistently beat the market can be a fool's errand, but investing in high-quality stocks such as blue chips and dividend-yielding companies is often a good strategy for beginners. One reason investors opt for blue chips is their track record of stability and because they tend to produce dividends. Famous blue-chip companies include Microsoft, Coca-Cola Co. (KO) and Procter & Gamble Co. (PG). Coca-Cola, for example, generates a dividend yield of almost 2.8% – meaning an investor would earn 2.8% of their investment level in dividends over the next year at the current dividend rate – and the stock is less volatile, as its share price has hovered between $52 and $67 during the past 52 weeks as of mid-July. Dividends can generate much-needed income for investors. Long-term investors who take advantage of a buy-and-hold strategy by going long on stocks can reap the benefits of long-term growth in market value. For example, if you bought shares of AT&T Inc. (T) at its initial public offering price of $1.25 in 1984, your investment would be worth far more than what you put in, as the stock now trades at about $20 per share and has been paying dividends for decades. Use Dollar-Cost Averaging After choosing what stocks to buy, the question becomes when to buy them. The old adage "buy low, sell high," is a good one to follow, but it's hard to know when a stock is at a low. To alleviate the feeling that you must time the market just right, many beginning investors benefit from a dollar-cost averaging strategy whereby you invest a fixed amount on a regular schedule, regardless of the stock's current price. "Many beginning investors may get frustrated with the day-to-day fluctuations and highs-and-lows of the stock market, but dollar-cost averaging over time in a fluctuating — but overall up-trending — market allows an investor to continually invest and buy more shares when the market dips, causing their overall cost basis to average lower in general than their sell value," Wood says. "Markets are difficult to time, but dollar-cost averaging helps to create savings habits that, over time, have shown to bring about positive results historically." That said, some investors do better investing a lump sum all at once. This can work in your favor because it's generally better to invest money sooner rather than sitting on cash. "Either dollar-cost averaging or chunk investing when used in longer, multiyear investing strategies tends to give an investor a better chance of positive investment returns than when used during short-term time frames," Wood says. When to Sell a Stock Knowing when to let a stock go – without deciding in a panic – is a key skill for savvy investors. Burnette says the most impactful piece of advice he received from a Wall Street billion-dollar money manager was to "define the exit before you get in." "For example, set a metric that requires you to revisit a stock when it is up 20%, or down 10%," he says. When your metric is triggered, ask yourself: "Is this still a good investment?" Doing so forces you to look at the stock's fair market value and the company's current standing. Having an exit plan in place will help you keep emotions out of the decision of when to sell. It's important not to fall in love with a stock because businesses change and companies can fail. Following the news cycle that surrounds a company's stock performance can be overwhelming. Instead, experts say to ignore the short-term noise, so you can maintain perspective within your strategy for the long run. When it comes time to sell, don't forget to consider the tax implications. "If you retain an investment for more than a one-year period before selling, taxes on the appreciation of that stock will be taxed at a lower long-term capital gains rate rather than a higher short-term capital gains tax rate for investments held less than one year," Wood says. Legendary investor Warren Buffett advises people to buy and hold stocks for several decades instead of selling and repurchasing them constantly. At a minimum, a prospective stock should be one that an investor would own for at least 10 years, according to his philosophy." MY COMMENT The above article is focused on buying and investing individual stocks. It is good to know and understand how this works. BUT....probably the best way for someone to get started is to invest in an INDEX FUND or ETF. My first choice for any new investor is a SP500 Index. You still need to open a brokerage account. Once you open your account simply buy shares in a SP500 Index Fund or ETF just like you would buy shares of a stock. The nice thing about the SP500....is that it contains the 500 largest most successful companies in the USA. When you own a SP500 Index Fund you own shares of those 500 companies in one financial basket. Simply decide what amount of money you can invest each month......for the long term....at least five years. Than each month put that amount into shares of the SP500 Index Fund. In this sort of fund you will also get dividends and capital gains distributions. You can designate to reinvest those items also when they are paid. A painless way to do it, is to simply set up with your broker to AUTOMATICALLY take money from your checking account each month on a set day and put it into the fund that you are buying. There are many other types of mutual funds and Index Funds. But....again....I suggest that a broad Index Fund is the best way to start. This will get you started and involved with investing while you educate yourself. Incidentally.....right now with the markets being way down.....is a great time to start investing for the long term.
