Well it's early, but not off to a good start. I guess the markets did not like the jobs report maybe. The report out this morning is suggesting we gained all the "numbers"/jobs back since the pandemic of 2 years ago. I don't know, there have been many large company layoffs in the news lately. It appears some of those were "upper" positions, but I've also seen some not expanding positions as well. I would guess the service industry has added quite a bit even though they are probably still behind some. Obviously the FED will continue on their schedule of rate hikes. Inflation is going to probably be a tough nut to crack at this point. We just waited so long to address some of the issues. I realize "data" is lagging in comparison to real time, so it can be tough to make some sense of it at times. I'm thinking they may not be able to achieve their desired result and this thing may go on for awhile. I have no crystal ball, so I'll just maintain my plan and move forward. Time will tell and it will be interesting to look back on this time period and see how often we were right or wrong about some of it. That is the benefit of being in it long term.
It does seem backwards doesn't it. Inflation is a bitty, but maybe that is driving some of the people back to work and no more free money. Is that a bad thing?
I simply do not believe these numbers. Corporate America is uniformly laying people off and cutting jobs. BUT.....it does not matter anyway....other than helping speculative and micro-traders for a day or two. Payrolls increased 528,000 in July, much better than expected in a sign of strength for jobs market https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/jobs-report-july-2022-528000.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000 for the month and the unemployment rate was 3.5%, easily topping the Dow Jones estimates of 258,000 and 3.6% respectively. Wage growth also surged higher, as average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% for the month and 5.2% from a year ago, higher than estimates. Traders are now pricing in a higher likelihood of a 0.75 percentage point hike for the next Federal Reserve meeting in September. Hiring in July was far better than expected, defying multiple other signs that the economic recovery is losing steam, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000 for the month and the unemployment rate was 3.5%, easily topping the Dow Jones estimates of 258,000 and 3.6%, respectively. The unemployment rate is now back to its pre-pandemic level and tied for the lowest since 1969, though the rate for Blacks rose 0.2 percentage point to 6%. Wage growth also surged higher, as average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% for the month and 5.2% from the same time a year ago. Those numbers add fuel to an inflation picture that already has consumer prices rising at their fastest rate since the early 1980s. The Dow Jones estimate was for a 0.3% monthly gain and 4.9% annual increase. More broadly, though, the report showed that the labor market remains strong despite other signs of economic weakness. “There’s no way to take the other side of this. There’s not a lot of, ‘Yeah, but,’ other than it’s not positive from a market or Fed perspective,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “For the economy, this is good news.” Markets initially reacted negatively to the report, with Dow Jones Industrial Average down 128 points in early trading as traders anticipated a strong counter move from a Federal Reserve looking to cool the economy and in particular a heated labor market. Leisure and hospitality led the way in job gains with 96,000, though the industry is still 1.2 million workers shy of its pre-pandemic level. Professional and business services was next with 89,000. Health care added 70,000 and government payrolls grew 57,000. Goods-producing industries also posted solid gains, with construction up 32,000 and manufacturing adding 30,000. Retail jobs increased by 22,000, despite repeated warnings from executives at Walmart, Target and elsewhere that consumer demand is shifting. Back to pre-pandemic Despite downbeat expectations, the July gains were the best since February and well ahead of the 388,000 average job gain over the past four months. The BLS release noted that total nonfarm payroll employment has increased by 22 million since the April 2020 low when most of the U.S. economy shut down to deal with the Covid pandemic. “The report throws cold water on a significant cooling in labor demand, but it’s a good sign for the broader U.S. economy and worker,” Bank of America economist Michael Gapen said in a client note. The bureau noted that private sector payrolls are now higher than the February 2020 level, just before the pandemic declaration, though government jobs are still lagging. The unemployment rate ticked down, the result both of strong job creation and a labor force participation rate that declined 0.1 percentage point to 62.1%, its lowest level of the year. Economists have figured job creation to begin to slow as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool inflation running at its highest level in more than 40 years. The strong jobs number coupled with the higher-than-expected wage numbers led to a shift in expectations for September’s expected rate increase. Traders are now pricing in a higher likelihood of a 0.75 percentage point hike for the next meeting, which would be the third straight increase of that magnitude. “One the one hand, it gives the Fed more confidence that it can tighten monetary policy without leading to a widespread rise in unemployment,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist for job review site Glassdoor. “But it also shows that the labor market isn’t cooling, or at least wasn’t cooling as fast as anticipated. ... At the very least, even though it’s a surprise, I think the Fed is still on track to continue tightening monetary policy.” ‘Academic’ recession debate The Fed has raised benchmark interest rates four times this year for a total of 2.25 percentage points. That has brought the federal funds rate to its highest level since December 2018. The economy, meanwhile, has been cooling significantly. Gross domestic product, the measure of all goods and services produced, has fallen for the first two quarters of 2022, meeting a common definition for a recession. White House and Fed officials as well as most Wall Street economists say the economy likely is not in an official recession, but the slowdown has been clear. “The recession debate at this point is more academic than anything else,” said Sonders, the Schwab strategist. “You can’t deny that growth has weakened. That’s the only point in bringing up two quarters of negative growth in GDP.” The Fed rate hikes are aimed at slowing the economy, and in turn a labor market in which job openings still outnumber available workers by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. Bank of America said this week that its proprietary measures of labor market momentum show an employment picture that is still strong but slowing, due in large part to central bank policy tightening. The biggest reason for the retrenchment has been inflation that has been much stronger and more persistent than most policymakers had anticipated. Prices jumped 9.1% in July from a year ago, the fastest rate since November 1981." MY COMMENT As I said.....I believe this data is simply WRONG. There is no way that the private sector is back to as many jobs as prior to the shutdown. Every small business that I see every day is struggling with minimum staff and a lack of workers. I am also suspicious of the numbers that it is.....government.....that is still in need of thousands of more workers to get back to normal. As to the FED.....more baloney in my opinion.......that people were thinking that the rate increase would be lower in September. It has been totally clear that the September increase......and perhaps even some after that date.....will be 0.75%. It makes for a good article for the media.....but.....this story line is CRAZY. There is something going on with this data, the labor participation rate, corporate layoffs, all the workers that disappeared, etc, etc, etc.....and this report. BUT......as I said.....I dont care about this data. I know what the FED is going to do and I DO NOT invest or do anything in the markets based on this sort of economic data.
As I have watched stock quickly make a come-back......I dont think the stock markets believes or cares about this data either. All the averages have come back significantly compared to the close.
Here is good news......totally expected....for TESLA owners. Tesla Investors Clear 3-for-1 Stock Split as Shares Rebound https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-investors-clear-3-1-223616069.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc.’s months-long rally took a pause Friday as the stock retreated following seven sessions of gains after the electric-vehicle maker’s shareholders approved a three-for-one stock split on Thursday. The split -- aimed at attracting an even larger number of retail investors, who have been piling into the stock -- will bring Tesla’s shares down to the $300 range. The Austin, Texas based-company did not immediately specify when it will take effect. Tesla first announced its plan on March 28 via a tweet. The four-month lag between announcement and vote has proven to be beneficial, as a recovery in growth stocks has carried the Nasdaq 100 Index up 18% from a June low. Tesla is outperforming both the tech-heavy gauge and the broad S&P 500 Index with a gain of over 43% from a late-May low. Tesla fell as much as 2.6% to $902.30 as of 10:04 a.m. Friday in New York. The stock has been on an upswing over the past month, rising 37% since the end of June as of Thursday’s close. “Tesla’s stock split timing looks impeccable,” Roth Capital Partners analyst Craig Irwin said, noting the shareholder vote is coming at a time when the “market seems to be heading in the right direction.” Tesla’s recent rebound -- it posted a 32% gain in July for its best month since October -- comes on the back of resilient second-quarter results and a bit of a lift from the climate change bill from the Biden Administration, which aims to boost the use of clean energy through a series of tax incentives. Some of the latest momentum also comes from its faithful band of retail investors, with their purchases of the stock “skyrocketing” ahead of the stock-split vote, according to Vanda Research data. Still, most of the risks that weighed on the company earlier this year continue to linger, with supply-chain disruptions far from sorted, tensions between the US and China rising, and Elon Musk involved in a potentially lengthy and costly legal dispute with Twitter Inc. Moreover, recent high profile stock splits have failed to give a meaningful boost to other giants including Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com this year. For Tesla, this will be the second share-split in less than two years. The company had a five-for-one stock split in 2020, prompting a 60% surge in the share price from the day of the announcement to the execution date. The company already has a fairly strong retail investor following, often making it the stock with the most buy orders on Fidelity’s retail trading platform. Even though stock splits do not impact the business model of a company, they bring in a sense of affordability by lowering the price of the shares, especially for mom-and-pop investors, market watchers say. “Owning the whole share can be less complicated and more empowering, and these companies know that,” said Callie Cox, eToro US investment analyst. “There’s clearly an underlying desire in this market for any company to make its stock as accessible as possible. And so far, investors have responded to that.”" MY COMMENT The only thing missing is the date that the split will happen. With the lag from the announcement to the approval yesterday....I am sure the split will happen soon.
Apparently the markets dont care about the employment data or the FED speculation. The DOW is jumping back and froth from negative to positive.....the SP500 and NASDAQ have moved significantly away from their early losses. The SP500 and DOW are basically unchanged now and the NASDAQ is down by ONLY 0.15% for the day and coming back quickly. Looks like a very good chance for a positive day today. Of course....how any individual investor does will depend on their very specific holdings.
Bottom line for today....in my view....we will find out where the markets are headed in about 2-3 hours. There is NO clear direction at the moment. It is a FIGHT for direction at the moment. I am sure the traders are loving it today.
The market is screaming for attention. Fundamentally there are still some bargains out there. Somebody is buying these dips.
I looked at my account a minute ago. TOTAL RED for me at this moment. Very mild loss in every stock.....but together....they add up to a small loss for the day. I actually consider it a VICTORY since the futures had the big tech companies down significantly. If the futures had held....it would have been a very NASTY day.
I am NOT a fan of this sort of acquisition by Amazon. It is simply a waste of money. They are not a manufacturing company or a niche business player. They should focus more on their CORE businesses. I see this as a DISTRACTION from what they do and a DISTRACTION for management. Amazon to acquire maker of Roomba vacuums for roughly $1.7 billion https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/ama...oomba-vacuum-for-roughly-1point7-billion.html
Yes Amazon just does not seem content at the moment. It's like they are just tinkering around in so many areas looking for something to spend money on.
The collectible market is certainly ignoring all the noise about recession, rate hikes, and the likes https://www.wsbtv.com/news/trending...l-card-sells-725m/AACDGXKTVBC5BKZN5VP6YLRBNY/ The Holy Grail of sports trading cards set another record. A Honus Wagner T206 baseball card from 1909-11 sold for a mind-boggling $7.25 million on Wednesday in a private sale brokered by Goldin Auctions, the New Jersey-based auction house announced The card, which has an advertisement for Sweet Caporal cigarettes on the back, was graded SGC 2 (out of a possible 10), or good, by Sportscard Guaranty Corp., a Florida-based card and memorabilia grading service. The price tops the $6.606 million for a different T206 card of the Pittsburgh Pirates Hall of Famer that was sold nearly a year ago through Robert Edward Auctions. That card was graded an SGC3, Sports Collectors Daily reported. Rare, mint condition 1952 Mickey Mantle baseball card to go up for auction “I’ve been in this business for a very long time and seen a lot of incredible trading cards and pieces of memorabilia,” Goldin founder and executive chairman Ken Goldin said in a statement. “But there is nothing on earth like a T206 card. “There’s a reason why no Wagner card has ever sold for less than it was previously purchased for -- the card is art, it’s history, it’s folklore. The T206 is one of the reasons I do what I do and why serious collectors around the world love this hobby so much. To be a part of history and facilitate this record-breaking sale is an honor.” The Wagner card had originally been authenticated and graded by Professional Sports Authenticator and sold for $294,338 through Memory Lane in 2006, according to Sports Collectors Daily. The owner then had the card regarded by SGC in 2007, the collectibles site reported. Record breaker: T206 Honus Wagner baseball card sells for $6.606M The T206 Honus Wagner and the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle, one of which sold last year for $5.2 million, remain the two top cards in the collectibles hobby, according to The Athletic. The COVID-19 pandemic has fueled the explosion in the sports collectibles business, as investors view cards like Wagner and Mantle as alternative assets, the magazine reported. A T206 Wagner sold for $3.75 million in May 2021 before the $6.606 million bid three months later. The latest record price is expected to fall later this month, when a 1952 Topps Mantle card graded 9.5 by SGC could top $10 million when bidding ends on Aug. 27 in a sale conducted by Heritage Auctions. According to Sports Collectors Daily last week, bidding on the 1952 Mantle had already passed $6.7 million with a buyer’s premium factored into the sale. This week, the bidding has driven the price up to $7.08 million including the buyer’s premium, ESPN reported. MY COMMENT If this latest record breaking card sale is a sign of inflation then it only means one thing - PEOPLE LOVE INFLATION. It also means that people STILL have TONS of liquid cash to spend on luxury, Art and collectibles. In other words, this WONT change ANYTIME soon
In regard to the people with lots of liquid cash. A lot of that stimulus money is still out there and in fact is still being given out. A couple of folks I know just got some additional free money from their employers. One got around 3k as "inflation/fuel stimulus" for the month and the other got around 2k for "inflationary stimulus." Both were told it was left over money from all the rescue/cares act money. They also reported that it is possible to receive more a bit later depending on the economy. I don't know how prevalent this is, but it is apparently still a factor.
speaking of the economy and liquid cash (is there another kind?) found out this week my job is now permanently remote. that equates to at least $400 a month that won't be going into my gas tank. the envelope of twenties in the closet is swelling.
Well a good little stash can be made of that Emmett. On the job market/employer topic...I think the job market, employer/employee dynamic is still trying to figure out and adjust to all of the changes over the past couple of years. The WFH deal is a factor and no matter what ones view about it is, it is a part of the job scene now and will probably be from here on out to some degree. Then there is the whole competitiveness of the "wage wars" going on between companies and employees. The work environment is going through a lot of changes it seems. Just from my little world, I have the opportunity on a regular basis to be around new employees, current employees, and those that are leaving. Most of them are young. What I gather from them is this. They are wage driven. They know what the relative pay is out there and they are absolutely not staying if they can make more doing the same elsewhere. There is no real sense of loyalty to the company as before. Oddly, benefits such as type of retirement and specific health plans are way further down their list. The type of work culture or work environment is even further down the list. The single top factor is money and they make no bones about it. Yes, wages are a big part of the picture and sound obvious enough...I get it. This whole area in regard to employer/employee seems to be restructuring to something a bit different. What it ends up being eventually....I'm not sure.
good points, smokie. i really do miss the human interaction of being in an office. if it weren't for the fact that i'm on the downside of my working career arc i might have looked for an in-office job.
Yes, I can see where that would make a difference. I have never had the WFH experience, but I could see where a person who likes the interaction would really miss it. Being on the downside of finishing may make it a bit easier for you...I hope it does anyway.
Looks like Emmett will be investing another $400 in the markets every month. I agree Emmett......I am of the generation that I would rather go into the office every day. BUT......I am an outlier.....since during my business ownership days.....I went in 6 days a week.....and sometimes worked way late into the night. Zukodany......I saw that 9.5 Mantel card the other day in some materials that I got from Heritage. They had an article about the heritage of that card. It was sold by a card collector that was known for having the finest of the finest.....years ago. When he sold it he was asking $57,000. The sale happened for $50,000. It was ungraded at that time. I think that was back in the 1990's. Now that owner is selling and will get MILLIONS as you said. Can you imagine having that little piece of cardboard sitting around in your house.....It would drive you crazy. Here is a story that we were involved in......not near as much money as that card will bring.....I will not say what......"it".....was. We got a listing for an "item" from a dealer. My wife convinced me to buy it. It was a lot of money back in the early 1990's. We negotiated for about three months and the seller FINALLY came down to our offer of $60,000. We got the "item".....the finest of its kind in the world.....and put it on display in our house for about 3 years. At that point it started driving us CRAZY to have it out in the house....so we bought a safe to keep it in. After a few more years......we realized that it was not worth it to keep the "item" locked up in a safe where we could not see it and were afraid to touch it. We ended up selling the "item" for $105,000 through a dealer that repented an anonymous buyer. After we got the funds by wire......the UNKNOWN buyer sent a private jet to Boeing field to pick it up. We put a note with it asking for them to let us know who they were. We never heard a word back. If we had held onto that item it would have at one point been worth about $1MILLION.....right now it would be about $500,000. The point of this story is....sometimes owning something really rare and valuable just ends up driving you CRAZY. POSTSCRIPT: with the funds we got from that sale we bought a painting. That painting is STILL hanging on our wall and has increased in value to about $300,000. No one ever gives it a second thought......and....we are able to enjoy it every day.
Oh right....the markets. I ended up moderately RED today. So I ended the week with three GREEN days and two RED days. Today every one of my ten stocks was down except for Home Depot. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.50%. I was actually happy with the markets this week. We move forward to another week as we head toward year end..
