What is going on now in the economy and with work ethic, etc, etc.....is why my life long plan was to convert a significant amount of money into 30 year treasuries to INSURE a retirement income for life once I hit age 65 to 70. The low interest rates of the past 5-10 years screwed that plan and caused me to move to my back-up plan....my lifetime income annuities. I am so glad in hindsight that I made the move to convert about $1.8MILLION into a lifetime income. I would hate to be facing perhaps 20-30 years of the current unknown.......and the INSANITY that you see and hear daily.....while depending on market investments for my lifetime income. Of course.....since I dont need the money.....I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
I have to disagree about the media - but I guess that instead, I should ask - WHAT media? Yes, of course there are fear mongering media, but there are also the pie-in-sky, all-is-good, rose-colored glasses media. I'm not seeing much fear mongering from the media that I think most people pay attention to. So I guess the question is still: what sub-section of media do you see fear mongering?
TGIF......at least we are playing my favorite and best paying venue tomorrow. I will just have to make some money outside the markets.
Oh I can only imagine. It will be in overdrive with all sorts of "expert predictions" followed by another week of analysis about what they did and why they did it. Then they will offer what everyone should invest in and jump out of to save their financial future. What would we do without this guidance?? I will just poke fun at them and continue with my plan...and so will most of the sane investors.
That sub-section would be all the general....financial media....sources that I scan every day.....all are mainstream sources. Of course....I say that from the context of being age 72 and a 55 year investor.......and having been a media observer over that entire time. Someone that has a shorter time on this earth.....may have a very different take on the current media environment. It is all relative. I did post a few examples in this thread this week.
I could also say.....yeah......"WHAT media". Since there is in general NO media left. It is ALL simply opinion pieces now. All the old time journalism professors and editors are spinning in their graves. Like I said.....that is why I like to sit and watch the CIRCUS...from the perspective of not having to care. Nothing is more entertaining than watching human behavior.
DING, ding, ding, ding.....we have a winner....Smokie. I dont know why this jumped into mt head yesterday. My grandmother used to listen to him all the time when I was a kid.
Looking back what a year it has been so far. It has been a rough go for the majority of it for sure. Although, we have made some progress and have turned back some of the losses. In general the SP 500 sits around -11.84% YTD. Where we end up is about anybody's guess at this point. As has been pointed out throughout this thread by many, it is important to keep perspective as we look back and also as we move forward. Most long term investors simply evaluate their plan and keep a check on things to weather any potential storm. Our plan should contain good/solid companies that considerable research has been completed on prior to this bear market even occurring. When creating our plans, it is important to remember that we are deciding to own part of a company when we add them to our overall portfolio. This is why it is so important to do the research and why it is different than a lot of the short term "stuff" we see from day to day. A good reason why I often repeat the phrase "ignore the noise." The short term stuff has nothing to do with the long term plan. Yes, we all experience the volatility in any environment and have in the most recent case. If you have a reasonable/solid plan and have done the necessary prep work involved, you will be just fine in the long term. By putting in this previous work you will have the confidence to know your plan was sound before and into the future. As a wise one once said: “Predicting rain doesn’t count, building the ark does.” WB.
Yes, as soon as I seen it, I could hear his voice. He was such a speaker...one of those voices that just made you stop and listen when you heard it on the radio.
This is TRUE.....but it is also true that the majority of the losses in the markets that we still see today occurred in January and February. I like to look at the SP500 over various time periods. Over.....the past THREE MONTHS.....we have a return of +8.38%. Over the past SIX MONTHS.....we are at (-2.77%). So.....the majority of the year has NOT been bad. In fact most of the year has......now....been ok, if not good. Unfortunately we had two really bad months to start the year.......and....we are STILL under that negative market overhang. It is amazing how difficult and how long it takes to recover from a couple of bad months. This year has been the perfect example of the SHORT TERM. AND....of course.....the short term tends to be based on NON-BUSINESS events and drama. The longer term tends to reflect ACTUAL BUSINESS FUNDAMENTALS.......of the great companies that make up the American investing universe. It is impossible to know how we will end the year. We could have another bad stretch that tests the former lows. OR....we could end the year with a very small loss or even a gain. I would say it is 50/50.....at this point. Third quarter earnings will determine a lot.....as will the election somewhat. There are no guarantees or ways to predict the short term.....but.....I would say we have a significant......"chance".....to end the year with a very small loss at worst. If that happens people looking at this year in the future.....will have no idea of the losses and severe nature of the markets in early months of the year. As a LONG TERM INVESTOR.....I have seen years.....many times.....where a loss of 10% is made up in the last months of the year to end the year positive. At the WORST......it still seems like the markets have NORMALIZED compared to January and February.
Here is the coming week. Of course.....the big issues......are the FED at Jackson Hole and the recession question. BOTH are actually NON-ISSUES. Does anyone really think it matters if the FED does a 0.50% or a 0.75% increase in September? Either way it will have little to no REAL impact on anything. The recession question.....the media has refused to admit that we have been in a recession for months now. So.....when or if we are in a recession.....is just ridiculous and meaningless at this point. Jackson Hole, inflation, dollar stores: What to know this week in markets https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jackson-hole-market-preview-august-21-173439862.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The attention of the financial world will turn to Grand Teton National Park in the week ahead. The Kansas City Federal Reserve will host its annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole this week, with Friday morning's speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell expected to highlight the proceedings as investors search for clues on the central bank's next move. This year's symposium marks the first in-person Jackson Hole conference since 2019. A close-reading of Powell's comments on Friday will boil down to whether investors see the Fed chair signaling another 0.75% interest rate hike from the Fed at its next policy announcement on September 21, or whether the Fed will ease its pace of rate hikes and increase benchmark rates by 0.50%. In a note to clients Friday, Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, wrote that recent economic events are likely to set the table for a 0.50% rate hike in September. July inflation data showed a modest softening in inflation pressures, arguing for easing the pace of hikes. The July jobs report dispelled concerns from some Fed officials that the labor market is softening, perhaps making the case for continued aggression on raising rates. "To the extent that those developments cancel each other out, we still expect the Fed to hike rates by 50 [basis points] next month," Hunter wrote. "There doesn’t appear to be much need for Chair Jerome Powell to adjust expectations when he speaks at Jackson Hole next Friday." Powell's speech will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Friday, and for the first time the Fed chair's speech — seen as the most important central bank communication of the year — will stream live. Yahoo Finance's Brian Cheung will be on the ground in Wyoming to bring readers and viewers full coverage of the events. In addition to Powell's speech, updates on service sector activity, inflation, and consumer sentiment will feature on the economic calendar. PCE inflation — the Fed's preferred measure — is set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, just 90 minutes before Powell's speech. Powell's speech will begin simultaneously with the release of the University of Michigan's latest consumer sentiment index. For Fed Watchers, the coming week will hardly offer a summer Friday. Though earnings season has largely wrapped up, this week's trickle of results will still offer investors key updates, with reports out of Nvidia (NVDA), salesforce.com (CRM), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), and dollar store operators Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) — the week's most notable releases. Last week's results from Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) helped allay some investor fears over the state of the consumer, with these results coming in better-than-feared. However, both companies' reports signaled a more cautious approach from shoppers as inflation pressures bit during the summer months. Walmart CFO John David Rainey told Yahoo Finance last week the company saw customers trade down — particularly in grocery — during the quarter. Rainey also told analysts on a conference call the company had canceled billions in orders. Back in May, Dollar Tree and Dollar General offered some of the earliest indications that consumers were using their grocery runs as an opportunity to cut costs. Results from both retailers this week will be parsed for signs of any continued, modified, or accelerated behavioral shifts. Nvidia's latest report comes also comes at a crucial juncture for the semiconductor industry, often seen as a bellwether for global economic demand. Earlier this month, Nvidia warned its quarterly results would miss estimates, and reports this week catalogued the growing concerns around demand in the chip space as global economic activity appears to soften. Last week, markets snapped a four-week winning streak, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropping over 2% and the S&P 500 falling more than 1%. This loss of momentum in the summer market rally came as the latest leg of the meme stock trade fizzled out, with Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) shares falling 40% on Friday, after GameStop (GME) chairman Ryan Cohen disclosed he'd sold his entire 11.8% position in the struggling retailer. Cohen's sale also came as Bloomberg reported late Thursday that Bed Bath & Beyond has engaged Kirkland & Ellis, a law firm known for its restructuring and bankruptcy work. After the close on Friday, Bloomberg reported some suppliers for Bed Bath & Beyond had halted shipments due to unpaid bills by the retailer. While the collapse in Bed Bath & Beyond shares served as the splashiest move, last week also saw several of this summer's "losers turned winners" struggle, with names like Peloton (PTON), Robinhood (HOOD), and Coinbase (COIN) all falling more than 13% for the week." MY COMMENT Except for the earnings......the rest of the above is simply stock market short term CHAFF. Good for the traders and the big banks with their AI computer trading systems that react on a micro-second level to news and headlines. Other than that......simply a waste of time and energy for any but the most short term of market players.
A crappy open today as the FED takes over all the financial news for the week. a perfect example of OBSESSIVE IRRELEVANCE by the media. Of course this "stuff" is.......the usual fear mongering. Traders love it......the volatility benefits them. I will probably be posting less this week.....we have company. So if it ends up being a down week......I will simply get to ignore it since I will be out of my normal investing and reading routine.
The is a good article for a week like this......when the media.....not actual investors.....will be obsessively focused on the FED and how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. Eight Ways to See America’s Volatile, Mixed Economic Data Beware reading into any one indicator. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...s-to-see-americs-volatile-mixed-economic-data (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The last two weeks have been chock full of US economic data, much of it conflicting. The latest example: The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index sank into deeply negative territory in July, suggesting a steep contraction in Northeastern factory activity … but the Philadelphia Fed’s counterpart jumped into positive territory, suggesting factory activity expanded on the eastern seaboard. This follows a short run of conflicting manufacturing output (negative) and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes, or PMIs (positive). Monthly inventory data, which isn’t adjusted for inflation, is high and rising—but quarterly inventories, which are inflation-adjusted, continue detracting from GDP. We see a broad, important takeaway for investors to keep in mind here: Economic data remain quite volatile post-COVID, making it unwise to read into any one metric, or even a small gathering of metrics. Exhibits 1 – 6 show an array of monthly data from January 2017 through the latest reading available. As you will see, from PMIs to retail sales to factory orders and beyond, most of these are far more volatile since January 2020. Not just during the initial lockdowns, but afterward, with one exception, the month-to-month moves are bigger across the board. Exhibit 1: Regional Manufacturing PMIs Source: FactSet, New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed, as of 8/18/2022. Readings over zero indicate expansion. Exhibit 2: ISM PMIs Source: FactSet, as of 8/18/2022. Readings over 50 indicate expansion. Exhibit 3: Retail Sales Source: FactSet, as of 8/18/2022. Core retail sales exclude motor vehicles & parts and gas station sales. Figures aren’t inflation-adjusted. Exhibit 4: Real Consumer Spending Source: FactSet, as of 8/18/2022. Exhibit 5: Durable Goods Orders Source: FactSet, as of 8/18/2022. Core capital goods orders exclude defense and aircraft. Exhibit 6: Manufacturing and Mining Output Source: FactSet, as of 8/18/2022. These subindexes are used in lieu of headline Industrial Production to omit skew from Utilities, which are influenced heavily by weather. In some of these, the outsized swings during and after lockdowns make the relative volatility in the surrounding months hard to see. So here is another way to assess it. Exhibit 7 summarizes the average monthly movement (meaning, the absolute value of each monthly change) in each of these series before the pandemic (January 2017 through December 2019) and after the initial post-reopening boom faded (from September 2020 onward). The PMI rows show the average movement in points, while the rest show average growth rates. All save durable goods and core capital goods orders continue notching bigger swings today. Exhibit 7: Comparing Pre- and Post-Pandemic Volatility Source: FactSet, New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed, as of 8/18/2022. In our view, durable and core capital goods orders’ relative calm isn’t as much of an outlier as it might appear. Rather, we suspect it is a figment of the same factors disrupting other monthly series: shortages and supply bottlenecks. Those have caused big gyrations in output-oriented categories, which hinge on component availability as well as demand. But they have also caused demand for goods to accumulate, resulting in a steady flow of orders for long-lasting machinery, electronics and other merchandise. Hence, this normally bouncy series has become oddly steady. Wonderful as it would be to portray this as a sign of robust business investment, we think it is more likely yet another sign things aren’t quite back to normal yet. GDP, too, remains more bouncy now, as Exhibit 8 depicts. In the run up to 2020, the average quarterly movement was 2.5% in either direction. From Q4 2020 (after that big Q3 reopening boom) onward, it is 4.2%. And that is to say nothing of all the weirdness underneath, like imports and inventories hiding strong consumer spending in Q1 and Q2 of this year. More post-COVID dislocations. Exhibit 8: GDP Is Bouncier, Too Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, as of 8/17/2022. Setting aside all of the political implications, which are legion, we think this all underscores why the National Bureau of Economic Research has demurred on declaring a recession despite two consecutive GDP contractions. None of the above monthly data definitively say we are in a recession. Nor do they definitively say we aren’t in one. They are a mixed bag, and the factors making them so volatile and contradictory are generally divorced from core economic fundamentals. The good news, in our view, is stocks can see through all of this confusion. We think this is a big reason why the rally that began in mid-June continues. Recession warnings are everywhere and have been for weeks, making them well-known to stocks. Yet if we are in a recession now, all the mixed, bouncy data so far suggest it is a very mild one. In our view, all signs point to the US economy muddling through the best it can in the face of some external headwinds. Seems to us that qualifies as a positive surprise relative to all today’s deep recession fears. That doesn’t mean this rally is for sure a new bull market, as sentiment could trigger another downdraft. But it is a good backdrop for a recovery, whether now or a bit later." MY COMMENT YES.....the current OBSESSION with all this sort of data.....especially on the part of the media.....is just a WASTE for actual investors. It just jerks the markets around.....as actual people....retail investors......sit and do nothing. Same for the meme stocks and all the focus on the young GAMBLING market players (I will not call the investors or traders). This is NOT really the markets. This is a tiny minority. The actual markets are the retail investors that sit and wait as they continue to add money to their 401K accounts.
In reality.....and in spite of the market drop today.....there is NOTHING going on. Typical. COURAGE.......and.....simply CARRY ON.
Are we having fun yet? Stock Market Pulls Back; Buyers On Strike Ahead Of Nvidia Earnings, Powell Speech https://www.investors.com/market-tr...ack-ahead-of-nvidia-powell-speech/?src=A00220 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The stock market indexes opened sharply lower for the second session in a row on Monday, led by small caps and tech stocks. Caution is building ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole address on Friday while investors hope Nvidia's (NVDA) Q2 report on Wednesday isn't "as bad as feared." The Dow Jones Industrial Average has shed 1.3% in the first hour while the S&P 500 is down 1.6%. The Nasdaq composite is getting hit even harder, dropping 1.7%. The Russell 2000 has fallen 1.5%. Volume on the NYSE and the Nasdaq has dropped double-digit percentages, compared to the first hour on Friday. The S&P Volatility index has surged more than 10%, lifting above 23 for the first time since Aug. 3. Gold fell to a four-week low while the 10-Year Treasury yield poked against 3.0%. Crude oil is dropping like a rock again this morning, down 4.2% to $86.80 per barrel. Natural gas lifted toward the $10 psychological level, up 3.9% at this hour. The Natgas futures contract hasn't traded in double digits since 2008. European markets are trading lower as well, down more 1.5%. Meme stocks continued to post volatile moves. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is trading higher by 2.6% after nearly completing a two-week, 42-point round trip. Bloomberg is reporting that certain suppliers have halted shipments to the retailer due to unpaid bills. AMC (AMC) has dumped 31% but shareholders of record have just received one "Preferred Equity Unit," or APE, for each share of common stock. Netflix (NFLX) has fallen 5.2% after being downgraded to sell at boutique firm CFRA Research. The analyst warned that NFLX stock may underperform the S&P 500 Index for the rest of the year. Chairman Powell Jackson Hole Address On Friday Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers his annual address to the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday. There's enormous hype ahead of the speech, but Fed governors have spoken with a single voice since the July meeting. Their message has been simple and unambiguous: The economy is still running too hot and it will take multiple rate hikes to bring inflation down to the 2% target level. Stock market watchers are concerned the summer rally is ignoring this message, but that probably isn't true. Technical conditions hit extremely oversold levels in June, igniting the powerful force of mean reversion. We're seeing that in play now, with major indexes lifting into and reversing at 200-day moving average resistance. Oversold readings have eased at the same time, perhaps allowing more aggressive sellers to take control of the ticker tape in September. Still, everyone in the financial world will follow the speech closely, looking for subtle clues to policy shifts. Deutsche Bank analyst Tim Wessel summed up the event to Barron's on Monday, noting that "Powell's remarks are one of the key events that can jolt U.S. policy expectations from their recent range, along with inflation and employment data preceding the September [Fed decision on rates]." Nvidia Earnings After Wednesday's Close Nvidia is trading lower by more than 3%. The chip powerhouse reports Q2 earnings after Wednesday's close, with FactSet forecasting a profit of just 50 cents per share. On Aug. 8, the company lowered Q2 revenue guidance from $8.1 billion to $6.7 billion, citing "lower sell-in of gaming products." It fell 6.3% after the news and failed an attempt to recover those losses last week. NVDA stock is currently down a whopping 42% in 2022 and hasn't touched the 200-day moving average since breaking support in April. The cryptocurrency crash has amplified this loss, lowering demand for graphics hardware used for solely mining digital assets. However, there are signs that Nvidia is nearing a long-term bottom. For starters, the Earnings Per Share Rating has jumped to a very bullish 97 after four quarters beating expectations. In addition, the pristine "A" SMR Rating points to a very profitable tech giant that has, unfortunately, fallen out of favor in 2022." MY COMMENT This week will be a victim to events. The FED, rising rates in Treasuries, NVIDIA earnings. A big item this week.....at least today....is the HUGE drop in volume today. that just serves to AMPLIFY the moves on a day like this. BUMMER.
The WFH debates continue...a couple of weeks ago Apple had reportedly been in the process to bring some workers back to in office 3 days a week. Apparently they do not want to or at least under those terms. It seems these employer/employee disputes seem more frequent now. Amazon also gets frequent coverage about employee issues over working conditions, pay, and etc. Maybe we just see it more now due to the presence of widespread media platforms available. I still think the whole employee/employer dynamic is undergoing change with both the employee and employers trying to figure the best way forward. However, a lot of times those two things or ideas do not align. Apple workers hit back against the company's return-to-office plans, saying they have carried out 'exceptional work' from home. by Beatrice Nolan INSIDER. Apple employees are pushing back against the company's return-to-office plans. A group of Apple workers called Apple Together tweeted a petition on Monday, arguing that employees have shown over the past two years that they can do "exceptional work" from home. The petition claimed that workers asking for flexible arrangements may have "compelling reasons and circumstances" such as disabilities or care responsibilities. Some, they said, might just be plain "happier and more productive" when working from home. This month, Apple's senior leadership told employees that they had to return to the office for at least three days a week. A memo sent by Apple CEO, Tim Cook, said the push to get staff back in the office was designed to restore "in-person collaboration," per The Guardian. It came after similar comments made last year. The new petition argued that Apple's return-to-office mandate does not consider the unique demands of specific jobs or the diversity of individual employees. Apple did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment made outside normal working hours. Apple Together's petition demands that decisions on flexible-work arrangements be left up to individuals and their immediate managers. The workers have also asked that these arrangements be free of higher-level approvals and not require staff to provide private information. Employees have fought back against Apple's return-to-office plans before. In 2021, dozens of Apple workers wrote a letter to Cook signaling their frustration with the company's stance on remote working. Employees said in the letter, seen by The Verge last year, that they felt "not just unheard, but at times actively ignored" during communication about remote work at Apple. In May, Ian Goodfellow, Apple's former machine learning director reportedly left the company for Google's DeepMind due to Apple's return-to-office plans.
