I think this is a fair perspective and I certainly respect it. If rolling a quarter through a bar mitzvah causes pandemonium, perhaps only part of the blame lays with the quarter roller?
YEA.....it is September. Another BORING day in the markets today. Different day same result....at least for the open. It will be nice to get past Labor Day and get all the East Coast market participants back from their traditional August vacation.
Speaking of September. September Isn’t a Danger to Your Portfolio—But Seasonality Myths Are Don’t let calendar consternation scare you from stocks. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...r-to-your-portfolio-but-seasonality-myths-are (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Inflation, Europe’s energy blues, China’s slowdown—just when you thought markets had reached scary-story saturation, another bogeyman nears: the calendar. September’s approach always brings the usual annual warnings that stocks “fall in the fall”—but this year’s early weakness has seasonality adherents convinced an extra-awful autumn awaits. Don’t buy it. Whatever the autumn months bring, it won’t be because of the calendar. September swoon and “season of crashes” myths are long on legend but short on logic. September doomsayers argue the month historically has been bad for stocks—and that several world-shaking crashes have come in September and October. There is some truth to that. Since good data begin in 1925, September is the only month to average negative returns, at -0.65%. October? It ranks ninth out of all months, averaging 0.67%.[ii] Some of history’s scariest crashes have indeed come as summer flips to fall, too. In 1929, the market plunged -19.7% in October, sticking a fork in Roaring Twenties euphoria. Two years later in September, US stocks had their worst month in modern history: a -29.6% drubbing amid Dust Bowl and Great Depression devastation. October 1987 brought the “Black Monday” meltdown—which by itself represented most of stocks’ -21.5% decline for the month. Then in 2008, Lehman Brothers’ September collapse accelerated that month’s -8.9% selloff, which rolled into a -16.8% October nosedive.[iii] But while those bludgeonings stain memories, September’s and October’s full stories are far more nuanced—providing no hints for investors. While a few big outliers have flipped September’s average return negative and weighed on October’s average, both months actually feature positive returns more often than not. Again since 1925, 52.1% of Septembers and 61.5% of Octobers have been up.[iv] Both months’ median returns—the midpoint of all observations—are positive, too, showing the negative average results from outliers.[v] That means investors shunning stocks in September and October usually sidestep gains, not losses. Then, too, fleeing in the fall leads to another tricky decision: When do you get back in the market? Even if an autumn slide does happen to arrive, sitting out too long risks missing a powerful rebound. Seasonality fears don’t pass the logic test, either. Forward-looking markets pre-price all widely known information, data and opinions—and investors have been aware of seasonality talk for eons. The most famous may be “Sell in May and go away,” the faulty idea that investors should sell stocks in May and stay out of the market until October’s end. It stretches back centuries, beginning as “Sell in May and go away, and come back on St. Leger Day”—a reference to English traders’ heading to the countryside for summer vacation and returning for mid-September’s St. Leger Stakes horse race.[vi] Ironically, that very definition now runs headlong into “season of crashes” mythology, raising the question: Which myth is right? Regardless, maybe selling ahead of the summer months worked hundreds of years ago, when traders’ summer sojourns tanked market liquidity, teeing up potential shocks. But today, what investment firms sign off in summer? Few, if any—destroying whatever shred of a rationale ever underpinned the practice. Others point to the “Santa Claus Rally,” the notion that stocks tend to jump in December. Or the “January Effect,” which holds that returns in January’s first few trading days—or those of the full month—predict the year. Sometimes their explanations for one month’s slightly better returns than another’s seem seductive. But the flood of pixels spilled on these myths year-in, year-out dooms any edge they offer—if they ever did. Think about it: If September and October really were inherently bad for stocks, investors would front-run them, rushing for the exit in August. August returns would tumble. Soon headlines would warn annually of an “August Adieu.” September returns might improve with the selloff moved up. Then? Before long smart investors wouldn’t wait for the August Adieu. They would sell in advance of the declines. Enter the “July Jitters”! But investors would start front-running them, too, giving rise to the June … Jinx? Jettisoning? Followed by May-hem? Well, you get the idea. All this means seasonality myths not only don’t hold up—they can’t hold up, if you believe markets are at all efficient. That won’t stop the calendar cranks from continuing to spread seasonal myths this fall—and long after. As they do, remember the wisdom of Mark Twain’s Pudd’nhead Wilson: “October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”[vii] Maybe stocks fall this fall. Maybe they rise! But whatever happens, it won’t be because the calendar flipped. Don’t use seasonality myths as a reason to ditch stocks now. Look ahead to the recovery we believe is nearby." MY COMMENT NO......I dont believe....or.....invest according to superstition and myth. The fact that certain historic negative events have occurred in the past and impacted returns in a particular month is irrelevant to any investor. All this really is.....is a story line for LAZY editors and reporters. They drag it out year after year for a few days. Thinking about it.....I cant remember any investor in my lifetime that follows any of this calendar BS. Even if they talk about it....or joke about it....they dont follow it.
Bad news for home buyers. Mortgage rates are UP....near 6%. I suspect that in some local areas the rates are above 6% with ZERO points. I still see rates going to between 6% and 7.5% over the next year or so. GET USED TO IT......these are traditional NORMAL mortgage rates. What was extremely abnormal.....was the very low rates of the past few years. Mortgage rates jump over a half-point in two weeks https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-jump-140005334.html MY COMMENT This is so obvious, with the increases in the Ten Year Treasury and the increases that WILL happen over the next year or so......that there is no need to post this content. Read it if you want to see the latest data. This is simply REALITY.........short term and historic.....REALITY.
Here are the short term markets today......and the daily excuse for what is happening. Stock market news live updates: Stocks extend losses in downbeat start to September https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-1-2022-100101907.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks fell lower to start the month after all three major averages registered their biggest August percentage declines since 2015. The S&P 500 edged down 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average erased 105 points, or 0.3%. Tech continued to lead the way down, with the Nasdaq Composite sliding 0.9%. Meanwhile, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 3.257%, its highest level since June. A downbeat start to September comes on the heels of four straight sessions of selling amid renewed fears of restrictive monetary policy and a potential recession. In August, the benchmark S&P 500 fell 4.2%, the Dow was down 4.1%, and the Nasdaq posted a monthly loss of 4.6%. “A soft landing looks pretty unlikely,” Wells Fargo Head of Macro Strategy Mike Schumacher told Yahoo Finance Live. “A lot of things would have to go incredibly well — you'd have to have the energy situation ease, which is shy of a miracle at this point, COVID probably has to be pretty moderate if you think about a surge this fall or this winter.” On the economic data front Thursday morning, jobless claims fell for a third week to the lowest reading in two months. First-time unemployment insurance filings fell unexpectedly to 232,000 in the week ended August 27. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected claims to come in at 248,000. The main event of the week is the Labor Department’s official report for August, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday morning. Nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 300,000 in August, according to data from Bloomberg. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) barreled down more than 5% Thursday after the chipmaker said U.S. officials ordered the company to halt sales to China of two of its top computing chips used for artificial intelligence. Nvidia may lose an estimated $400 million in potential sales in China as a result of the restriction. In commodities, oil prices extended their fall lower as worries of demand destruction persist. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 1.8% early Thursday to $87.97 per barrel, while Brent futures held near $96.53. The moves in crude oil futures come after the commodity logged its third straight monthly decline – the longest losing streak in more than two years. WTI crude sank more than 9% in August, its biggest monthly decline since November." MY COMMENT The distinct lack of content in this little article tells you that NOTHING new is going on. It is a stretch for the author to come up with anything to even write about. There is one real story line.....the FED is driving the markets down INTENTIONALLY. Nothing more nothing less. How long will this last.......perhaps a month....perhaps another 2-3 years. Or anywhere in-between. NOW.....if I was cynical and was the government......I might just want the FED to crash the economy. Once that happens I would have a great reason and excuse to stimulate the economy. That means more massive spending to "SAVE" the economy. Unfortunately this spending NEVER works......the end result is simply......the usual higher taxes.....and..... moving money out of the private sector and into the hands of bureaucrats.
One thing that investors are currently being schooled in......is the long history in the CHIP INDUSTRY....of boom and bust. The chip stocks are being hammered this year. I have seen this for many decades. This business is simply one that is subject to extreme boom and bust time periods. It is extremely cyclical. If you invest in these stocks you have to be willing to live with this REALITY.
I see from the news today that 3M is going to cut jobs. Add them to the massive list of big companies that are cutting workers. The HUGE backlog of unfilled jobs is simply a MYTH at this point. It is minimum wage service jobs or low wage retail jobs. We have seen nice wage gains in those lower level jobs......but......they are not desirable and people avoid them if possible. We are seeing the jobs in the USA hollowed out. We are losing hundreds of thousands of high level corporate, professional, and white collar jobs. At the same time there is HUGE demand at the low end of the job scale.
To continue the above comment. This little story is very relevant. The current situation is extremely temporary. As wages rise in the lower level jobs....employers will look to technology and robotic systems to do those jobs. The time will come over the next 10-20 years when these jobs are for the most part eliminated. At that point any wage power on the part of workers will be GONE for good. It will be a big social issue with the population increases we are going to see from migration, immigration, and other means over that time. Robots that stock drinks at convenience stores aim to automate all 'boring jobs done by humans' TX SCARA can restock up to 1,000 bottles and cans per day at small convenience stores in Japan https://www.foxbusiness.com/technol...ores-aim-automate-all-boring-jobs-done-humans
Enjoy the day.....go out and do something...if you dont have to work. Or bury yourself in your work. Nothing to see in the markets today.
People have to reap what they sow. Funny how the so called "orange man" that everyone hated so bad is gone. Now we are weaker than ever, World leaders laugh at us. Mid terms are our only hope at this point. If not DOW 25,000 is knocking on the door.
You have got to be kidding me. I read this yesterday when posted and just shook my head in disbelief, but then realized of course this is how things are being turned upside down today in business. "Proponents of the bill say it will empower fast-food workers and help solve industry problems such as unsafe working conditions and wage theft." Anybody with any sense is not buying that line of BS. The fact is, this little 10 person council wants to control "your" business. They have had absolutely zero stake in anything related to running the business, yet somehow they feel entitled to impose conditions on how it should be done. If it were me, I would give them an empty building to look at...all of them. This may not be a popular opinion, but I'll share it anyway. Most of these type of jobs were never intended to be career type long term jobs. Many HS and college kids have used them for flexible schedules and extra pay while out for the summer or while attending school. The idea that ringing up a Happy Meal should somehow be on the level of other professional paying jobs is simply asinine. It just doesn't work that way. We have somehow slid into this dense outlook about everything. This "everybody is entitled to everything equally" is such a farce. We have shifted so far away from personal responsibility and accountability. It is seeping into literally everything nowadays. I disagree vehemently with this type of thinking. Here is a newsflash for these people. Everybody cannot have everything. It is a "grown up" world out there. Take the initiative to change your own path...get educated, improve your own skills, work when others don't want to, set some goals to achieve what you want, and realize it is your own course in life to chart where you may end up. If a person is not succeeding in life, it can often be traced back to making some poor personal decisions and then sitting around and wallowing in it and blaming everyone else for their situations. It is NOT everyone else's responsibility to see that you make it. I used to visit regularly with an old guy who was a longtime business owner in the oil business. He was not a "oil tycoon" type, but he had made his own way. He had lived through many oil booms and many oil busts. He survived it all somehow. One day, while discussing life in terms of work and striving to be successful, he remarked that I had a nice property and home. He went on to say that when some people see things like that, they usually think one of three things. One, this guy must have a lot of money. Two, this person must have inherited or been gifted the place. Or three, the guy must have lucked into it or somehow be "on the take." He said, "Most people will never consider that having nice things came to be because of simply working hard and personal sacrifice." "They will never admit that, because once they do, they will realize they will never have it because they are not wiling to put in the effort to achieve it." Sorry about the long post and off topic rant I suppose. I guess I should somehow try to tie this into investing. Well, we are not all Warren Buffet or Jack Bogle...I am nowhere in the same hemisphere as those two. I am okay with that. I do not need to be or have everything that everyone else has to determine my self worth. I am responsible for my own success and failures in investing and in life. We as a country need a dose of that.
And our rough week looks to continue. I'll take the blame for this week since I added a bit to my portfolio. The sale continues, so I bought a little. I do wonder if things are going to get even cheaper to buy at this point. Either way, I'll buy a little more later this month too. While working you just have to keep plugging away at it on a regular basis. It will turn at some point...when is anybody's guess. I have also seen the articles about the usual crap September calendar months. We see this printed every single year it seems. All of the hocus pocus and witches brew theories one can find about any particular time of year. Do people really use this stuff as a guide for their investments? Never mind...yes some do apparently. A lot of people are searching for that "magical" easy way to success. We see all the "expert" recommendations and some wonder why a large percentage of investors simply cannot beat the SP 500 over a long term period. When you do not have a sound plan and put in the time to research companies....prepare to get beat soundly over a period of time.
AMEN to your McDonalds post Smokie. This is why I mentioned leaving the business world.....while a very successful small business owner at age 49, after 22 years.......and retiring. I got sick and tired of my silent partner......government....... taking over half of my gross income. You hit the nail on the head with that entire post......especially: "Most people will never consider that having nice things came to be because of simply working hard and personal sacrifice." "They will never admit that, because once they do, they will realize they will never have it because they are not wiling to put in the effort to achieve it." No one was there with me.....working 60 hours and every Sunday per week and gambling my money and assets to run and grow a business for 22 years. They have NO CLUE.
This is a big weight on the markets today. Also a very good buy at the moment. I do think there is another 10-15% downside short term. Nvidia stock hits new 52-week low amid U.S. export ban news https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-stock-hits-new-52-week-low-144344596.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia stock (NVDA) hit a 52-week low on Thursday after U.S. officials imposed a new license requirement for the company's AI chip exports to China and Russia. Shares of the chipmaker were down more than 10% during afternoon trade amid a broader sell-off for markets on Thursday. Nvidia indicated approximately $400 million in potential sales to China may be impacted by the new license requirement. "The USG indicated that the new license requirement will address the risk that the covered products may be used in, or diverted to, a ‘military end use’ or ‘military end user’ in China and Russia," Nvidia's 8-K filing stated. The company does not sell products to customers in Russia. The government measure will impact Nvidia's A100 and H100 integrated chips. In its latest SEC filing, the chipmaker said it obtained some licenses to support U.S customers in China. The geopolitical trade tensions come at bad time for chipmakers, as analysts warn of softening demand in the second half of the year and into 2023. Nvidia's third-quarter forecast announced in August came in $1 billion short of Wall Street expectations. Meanwhile, Micron (MU) cut its chip revenue forecast after announcing its quarterly results in August, while AMD's (AMD) third-quarter sales outlook came in light of expectations, though its cloud business remains strong. AMD stock also fell on Thursday in light of the export ban." MY COMMENT Poor chip companies.....as I always say......boom and bust at best. Now they are being hammered by world events and supply chain issues on top of each other. I do own this company and have no plans to sell. They have amazing management......so I will just ride it out.
YES.....same for me Smokie. I was GREEN today....beyond all expectations. Looks like the markets made a temporary bottom today and compelled people to buy. Prices just got too attractive late today so the program trading kicked in and moved the markets. I did get beat by the SP500 by 0.20%. My downfall today was MSFT and NVDA. The big one today obviously was NVDA. Other than these two.....my other eight stocks were all UP today.
I have talked about being a businessman a bit lately. I like this little article. Most people can NOT create a successful business. How a Business Wins https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/how-a-business-wins (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Scott Alexander writes, I think “Internet retail giant which dominates the market through economies of scale” is a natural niche which Jeff Bezos won the race to fill. When I say “natural niche”, I don’t want to discount Bezos’ accomplishment - I certainly didn’t notice that niche in 1994, and even if I had, I wouldn’t have had the business acumen to fill it effectively. I just mean that, probably sometime between 1994 and today, someone with business acumen would have noticed that niche and filled it successfully. Maybe not quite as successfully as Bezos. But successfully. On economic issues, Scott comes across as informed as any economics Ph.D. In this case, however, that is not a compliment. I have long thought that an internship in business should be a requirement for getting a Ph.D in economics. Most economists are naive to the point of cluelessness about how business works in practice, and unfortunately Scott suffers from the same lack of insight. I strongly disagree that all Bezos had to do was notice a niche. That is like saying that all Dwight Eisenhower had to do to make D-Day a success was pick Normandy as the landing spot. When Bezos was building his business, I noted that in order to compete with Wal-Mart, he would need to match their logistical system. All they had to do to compete with him was build a web site. And yet he won! It took incredible skill to do what he did. I don’t have space here to list all of the management practices and company capabilities he needed to develop. I give zero credence to the suggestion that if Bezos had never existed, someone else would have built Amazon. Building a business, especially an innovative business in a complex environment, requires many, many decisions. You can be lucky with any one decision, but to get enough decisions right to make the business work takes much more than luck. I tried to explain this many years ago, when I wrote, Othello is a board game somewhat like Chess or Go, and it has a small fraternity of competitive players, of which I am one. When I was at my peak, I might have played at 65 percent of optimality. That is, 65 percent the time I played the correct move for the given position. The 65 percent figure is a guess, because it is impossible to prove that a move is correct (except for positions near the end of the game, when one can use a computer to determine the optimal move by brute force.) At that time, the world champion of Othello might have played at 75 percent of optimality. If this is correct, and the world champion and I had played 100 games, how many would I have been expected to win? If you think that 75 percent of optimality vs. 65 percent of optimality should lead to a fairly small difference in games won, you are assuming implicitly that the game only lasts one move. In fact, because each player makes 30 moves, the cumulative effect of a seemingly small difference in accuracy is such that I would be fortunate to win 5 games out of 100 against the world champion. Suppose that a game lasts N moves. I win when I play correctly for more moves than the world champion. As N becomes large, the small per-move advantage of the world champion compounds until my chances of winning nearly vanish. Software development is a multi-move game. Even the best players make many mistakes. But the game lasts long enough that the chances of victory for an inferior player are not high. I was trying to explain why Microsoft kept winning, even though so many software engineers thought they were better than Bill Gates. I also tried to describe my own business experience. in 1997, we noticed that one of our web partners, Mapquest.com, was undergoing some upheaval. We considered offering to buy the company, but when we learned that they had accumulated a few million dollars in debt, we passed. They have since gone public, and as of this writing Mapquest has a market capitalization of close to half a billion dollars. The essay describes many of the miscalculations that I made. But I actually made a number of excellent moves, and in those days that was enough. People tend to describe business success as if it were simple, as if the founder has to has to be right about only one thing. If that were the case, success would be more than 90 percent luck. In practice, I think it is usually less than 10 percent luck. This is a very important point, and too many people do not see it." MY COMMENT LUCK is a necessary component of any success. BUT.......in order to achieve that LUCK you need a fanatical work ethic....and..... focus. In my entire lifetime....I have NEVER been the natural best in sports, school, business, investing, etc, etc, etc. BUT......I have overachieved over the vast majority of people that I have known in life. BUT....I will admit that I have an inherent talent for business and money that I was born with......but that alone is worthless.....if you are not willing to put in the work and have the vision, focus, common sense, education, etc, etc, etc.
Here is a little blurb for SBUX owners. Starbucks names Narasimhan as new CEO https://finance.yahoo.com/news/starbucks-names-narasimhan-ceo-201029033.html "Sept 1 (Reuters) - Starbucks Corp on Thursday named Laxman Narasimhan as the coffee chain's new chief executive officer, effective Oct. 1. (Reporting by Rithika Krishna in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)" MY COMMENT I have no idea who this is. I have not owned this stock since the late 1990's early 2000's.
Here is a bit more info. Starbucks names Laxman Narasimhan as new CEO, starting in April https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/01/starbucks-says-laxman-narasimhan-will-take-over-as-ceo-in-april.html
I wrote today off this morning. After that I paid little attention to the markets......a long term investor luxury. Dow, S&P 500 close higher to snap four-day losing streak and begin September https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/31/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 ended the first day of September on a high note as traders looked forward to the jobs report Friday. The Dow cut its losses from earlier in the day, wrestling with the flat line into the close and jumping 145.99 points, or nearly 0.5%, in the final minutes of trading, to 31,656.42. The S&P 500 rallied 0.3% to 3,966.85, after trading lower for most of the day. Both snapped a four-day losing streak. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite fell about 0.3%, to 11,785.13, to post its first five-day losing streak since February. It still came back from deeper losses earlier in the session. All of the major averages are on track to finish the week lower. The Dow is set to post a 1.9% decline, while the S&P and Nasdaq are on pace to end down 2.2% and 2.9%, respectively. The moves came as the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield topped 3.5%, the highest level since November 2007, on Thursday. That weighed on rate-sensitive growth stocks, making their future profits less attractive. Nvidia shares also contributed to the losses, falling nearly 7.7% after the chipmaker said the U.S. government is restricting some sales in China. Stocks have been in a slump as investors respond to hawkish comments from Fed officials who show no signs of easing up on interest rate hikes. Traders have been debating whether stocks will again challenge the June lows in September, a historically poor month for markets. “The June lows are in play in the coming weeks as equity investors finally recognize the intensity of the Fed’s mission,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management. “Inflation and recession are typically accompanied by lower market multiples and markets need to reassess valuation as interest rates rise.” “A successful test of June lows may also prove important as the double-bottom formation could help alleviate fears of further volatility in the months ahead,” Lynch added. “We believe consensus profit forecasts for next year are too high and technical support will be necessary as forecasts come down.”" MY COMMENT We will now see if this is a one day event or if it is the start of something more.....stay tuned.
