Here is the jobs data. Our economy and labor situation is so DISRUPTED who knows what any of it really means. No doubt.....we will now hear the media spend the rest of the day nit-picking everything in the report along with massive speculation. August jobs report: U.S. payrolls grew by 315,000 last month https://finance.yahoo.com/news/august-jobs-report-september-2-2022-220121393.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The U.S. labor market remained tight in August despite this summer's series of larger-than-anticipated rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to cool economic growth in its fight against inflation. Here are highlights from the latest monthly jobs report from the Labor Department released Friday, compared to consensus estimates from Bloomberg. Non-farm payrolls: 315,000 vs. +298,000 expected Unemployment rate: 3.7% vs. 3.5% expected Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% vs.+0.4% expected Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +5.2% vs. +5.3% expected" MY COMMENT I really dont care about this other than all the HYPE that is being put out there about this single little report. That is what is interesting to me......all the breathless media coverage going on right now. As a long term investor.....this is simply IRRELEVANT.
Here is a bit more info......my last post on this issue for the day.....I hope. Payrolls rose 315,000 in August as companies keep up hiring pace https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/02/august-2022-jobs-report-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nonfarm payrolls rose solidly in August amid an otherwise slowing economy, while the unemployment rate ticked higher as more workers rejoined the labor force, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The economy added 315,000 jobs for the month, just below the Dow Jones estimate for 318,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, two-tenths of a percentage point higher than expectations and tied for the highest level of the year. Wages continued to rise, though slightly less than expectations. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 5.2% from a year ago, both 0.1 percentage point below estimates. Nevertheless, the numbers still pose a quandary for a Federal Reserve trying to get inflation under control. Those payroll and wage gains came amid soaring inflation and concerns over a slowing economy that posted negative GDP numbers in the first two quarters of the year, generally considered a telltale sign of recession. Inflation is running near its fastest pace in more than 40 years as a combination of a supply-demand imbalance, massive stimulus from the Fed and Congress and the war in Ukraine has sent the cost of living soaring. The Fed has been battling the inflation problem with a series of interest rate hikes totaling 2.25% that are expected to continue into next year. In recent days, leading central bank figures have warned that they have no intention on backing off their policy tightening measures and expect that even when they stop hiking, rates will stay elevated “for some time.” One key channel the Fed is looking for policy impact is the jobs market. In addition to robust hiring, job openings are outnumbering available workers by a nearly 2-to1 margin, pressuring wages and creating a feedback loop that is sending prices higher for not only gas and groceries but also shelter costs and a variety of other expenses." MY COMMENT A one month jobs report......WHATEVER.
If this gives us a good day today in the markets.....I will take it. The focus on this single monthly report is ridiculous....but what isn't these days. At the moment the futures have turned green.....but are QUICKLY backing off from their highs of a few minutes ago. Tody will be totally MEDIA driven in the markets.....for better or worse.
picked up a book about mark twain from the local library couple days ago. never knew he had so many bad investment choices. anyway, here are some his quotes with added commentary from another source. ----- 1. “THE SECRET OF GETTING AHEAD IS GETTING STARTED.” This nugget of truth actually reads like it came from a page in a Finance 101 textbook. Although we would all prefer a secret to financial success, it’s just wishful thinking. The safest, most assured way to wealth is to start saving and planning early. The sooner you save, the greater you will be rewarded by the power of compounding. 2. “I’VE HAD A LOT OF WORRIES IN MY LIFE, MOST OF WHICH NEVER HAPPENED.” One obstacle that can lead investors off course is emotion. Feelings of greed and fear are frequently the catalysts for undisciplined financial decisions. The market will keep going up. The market will never recover. Fear, for instance, tends to make investors risk averse or indecisive. But avoiding the market, stocks in particular, can lead to the loss of buying power by way of inflation. Historically, the inflation rate has been around 3%, which will reduce your money by half over 30 years. 3. “A MAN IS NEVER MORE TRUTHFUL THAN WHEN HE ACKNOWLEDGES HIMSELF A LIAR.” “Liar” is a little harsh. However, people like to believe they are always rational and in control while psychological research suggests that we are victims to certain behavioral biases. We feel a financial loss twice as much as we feel a financial gain, for example. These biases can distort our perceptions, which is a major reason why you should be careful in your financial decision-making and seek the objective advice of a financial adviser. 4. “LET US ENDEAVOR SO TO LIVE SO THAT WHEN WE COME TO DIE EVEN THE UNDERTAKER WILL BE SORRY.” It’s easy to focus solely on the financial aspects of retirement planning. Don’t forget about all the fun stuff; it’s just as important. If you want to live a fulfilling retirement, you also have to figure out what you want to do, what will make you happy. You may even discover you need less money than you thought. 5. “WHENEVER YOU FIND YOURSELF ON THE SIDE OF THE MAJORITY, IT IS TIME TO PAUSE AND REFLECT.” Herd mentality is the phenomenon of when people become influenced by their peers and adopt certain behaviors. This is a common occurrence in the market, as investors get caught chasing performance – buying what’s hot and selling what’s not. As another great thinker, Warren Buffet, once said: “Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful.” In your working years, you can avoid following the herd by simply saving money in your retirement account every month, no matter what the market or other investors are doing. 6. “IT'S NOT THE SIZE OF THE DOG IN THE FIGHT, IT'S THE SIZE OF THE FIGHT IN THE DOG.” Perceptions are often unreliable. When it comes to investing, costs are what matter most and not performance or star ratings. In fact, costs are a better indicator of future returns than past performance. While you can’t control where markets will go or how a particular fund will perform, you can control the fees you pay. A low-cost approach can help you keep more of your portfolio’s return. 7. “IF YOU DON’T READ THE NEWSPAPER YOU ARE UNINFORMED, IF YOU DO READ THE NEWSPAPER YOU ARE MISINFORMED.” The news is filled with a lot of noise. Most topics concern short-term events that are unrelated to your specific financial needs and have no bearing on your long-term goals. It’s better to tune out the headlines and rely on an adviser who knows your personal situation. 8. “A MAN WHO CARRIES A CAT BY THE TAIL LEARNS SOMETHING HE CAN LEARN IN NO OTHER WAY.” Mistakes happen to all of us. And some of the best financial knowledge comes from experiencing past mistakes. Use them to help guide your financial decisions, such as how much risk you’re comfortable with in your portfolio. 9. “IT AIN'T WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW THAT GETS YOU INTO TROUBLE. IT'S WHAT YOU KNOW FOR SURE THAT JUST AIN'T SO.” In other words: “past performance is not a guarantee of future results.” Unfortunately, this disclaimer is too frequently overlooked by investors who jump on an investment bandwagon only to find they’re late to the party and have missed out on any gains they could have earned. No one can predict the future. Investors are generally better off maintaining a diversified portfolio and thinking long term. 10. “CLIMATE IS WHAT WE EXPECT, WEATHER IS WHAT WE GET.” Every January, financial experts release their market forecasts for the New Year. And, invariably, those projections are proven wrong. Before using them as the basis for your investment decisions, take them for what they are: just guesses. 11. “DON'T GO AROUND SAYING THE WORLD OWES YOU A LIVING. THE WORLD OWES YOU NOTHING. IT WAS HERE FIRST.” You likely won’t reach your financial goals on luck alone. Working hard and saving regularly is still the best route toward financial success. 12. “OCTOBER: THIS IS ONE OF THE PECULIARLY DANGEROUS MONTHS TO SPECULATE IN STOCKS. THE OTHERS ARE JULY, JANUARY, SEPTEMBER, APRIL, NOVEMBER, MAY, MARCH, JUNE, DECEMBER, AUGUST, AND FEBRUARY.”
Yup, looks like the market is overall bearish this year, I don’t see any way we’re getting any ANH anytime soon. Simply red red red….. ….. HIT IT MAESTRO!!
GREAT.......a tool to increase employee productivity. Well not really...... This $30 mouse jiggler makes it look like you’re working when you’re not https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/02/how-to-use-a-mouse-jiggler-to-make-it-look-like-youre-working.html MY COMMENT An interesting little article. Reminds me a of visiting a MSFT employee in their "clone" office at the MSFT Redmond campus back in the mid 1990's. Every office was the same....the same white board, same desk, etc, etc, etc. Thousands of them in a HUGE building. While talking to him.....he had to....physically.... move his mouse every so often.....so it would look like he was working.
The mouse jiggle...that is hilarious. Where there is a will, there is a way. How can we be so inventive about things, yet so dumb about important matters...the economy, foreign policy, and the list goes on.
That is an AMAZING song you picked Emmett. Should be the anthem of this thread.. Sing it: I KEEEEEEEEP HOLDING ON I KEEEEEEEEP HOLDING ON
The negative drum beats louder with each day. Just cruising through some of the noise this past week and before...it is offering analysis and predictions all over the place. What is comical, is that one day will mention a particular subject and then the same news outlet will run something completely opposite only a day later. The information and differences are endless. What does it matter today, tomorrow, or even a month or two from now? To me, absolutely nothing. The old advice of "Control what you can control" rings true. Yes, the market is volatile, yes inflation is high, yes supply chains remain strained, yes there are global issues and on and on. We can control our spending, keep a watchful eye on our budgets, maintain our long term portfolio plans, get up and go to work, enjoy our health and families, and just keep moving forward. That is it. All of the other stuff is just junk. Junk to make you feel a certain way or react a certain way. Junk to distract you from your long term goals. Nothing more. By doing this, we are not dismissing the facts of having a rough year or maybe what is to come, but DO NOT let it take control of what you can control. And....KEEP HOLDING ON.
Labor Day weekend is upon us....To all of the hard working folks out there, thanks for getting up and going to work even when there are times you (we) do not feel like it...you deserve a long week end for sure. Keep moving forward. If you are already retired...well, hats off to you for carrying the load and long hours when you did what was needed for our country and your family. And if you are someone who is out of work, but trying hard to get back in the workforce...I wish you all of the success in your endeavor...do not give up. You all have earned it. . Last, but not least, if you are a free loader...spend the extra day looking for a job..
Just a run to the close today with ZERO confidence. Traders scared to hold over the three day weekend.......since the Wall Street vacations will be over on Tuesday and we will get back to normal volumes. AND.......oh my God.....it is September. We will also be in full on FED panic for the next couple of weeks. So down we go. I was medium red today.....every stock down at the close. AND.....to top off the day....I got beat by the SP500 by 0.30%. My big victory for the day......it is over and we dont have to think about anything to do with the markets for three days. HAPPY LABOR DAY everyone.
This week marks THREE DOWN WEEKS in a row. Here is how we ended up. DOW year to date (-13.81%) DOW for the week (-2.99%) SP500 year to date (-17.66%) SP500 for the week (-3.29%) NASDAQ 100 year to date (-25.87%) NASDAQ 100 for the week (-4.02%) NASDAQ year to date (-25.66%) NASDAQ for the week (-4.21%) RUSSELL year to date (-19.40%) RUSSELL for the week (-4.74%) We are now down to the final FOUR months of the year. On one hand still a lot of time left.....on the other hand we are running out of time for a positive year end. TGIF......TGIF.
I have to do a little 200 mile road trip today. I have the car packed and will leave soon. We have one show this weekend....tonight. It should be packed. It will be a good thing to clear my mind from all this financial "stuff" and move on to the new week. It will be my POSITIVE end to the week.
I post this for the content that is relevant for inflation and the FED.....not the politics. This is WSJ material and I dont have access to the WSJ....so I found another source. Biden's plan to forgive student loans could end up costing over $1 trillion, an analysis says https://news.yahoo.com/bidens-plan-forgive-student-loans-130814870.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Biden's plan to forgive student loans could cost more than $1 trillion, per an analysis. The costs depend on how many people take up the new income-driven repayment plan. Under the plan, around 20 million borrowers would eligible to have their full debt wiped out." "President Joe Biden's plans to forgive student loans could cost more than $1 trillion, according to estimates by the Penn Wharton Budget Model. Biden's plan to cancel up to $10,000 in debt for people earning less than $125,000 a year, rising to $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients, would cost between $469 billion and $519 billion over the 10-year budget window, depending on whether it covers future students who haven't started their studies yet, according to the model. This is higher than its previous estimates. The plan also included extending student loan forbearance to the end of the year, which the model estimates would cost another $16 billion. The plan would additionally create a new income-driven repayment (IDR) plan, under which they would pay back a maximum of 5% of the portion of their earnings that lies above 225% of the poverty line, up from the current 10% and 150%. This means that people earning less than roughly the annual equivalent of a $15 minimum wage wouldn't have to make monthly payments, the White House said. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates the IDR program would add another $70 billion to the plan's total costs. But, including future program details not yet released and potential behavior changes – like an expected sharp increase in take-up rates – the program could cost much more, per the analysis. The plan would also cover unpaid monthly interest and forgive loan balances after 10 years of payments for borrowers with original loan balances of $12,000 or less, instead of the current 20 years. This would enable almost all community college borrowers to be debt-free within 10 years, according to estimates by the Department of Education. If the Department of Information automatically enrolled borrowers in the IDR program, costs could actually reach $520 billion, according to the model. That additional $520 billion would take the total costs of the student loan forgiveness plan to over $1 trillion, Wharton said. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, meanwhile, said the plan would cost between $440 billion and $600 billion in all over the next ten years, with around $360 billion spent on canceling student debt, $120 billion on the new income-driven repayment program, and $20 billion on pausing repayments. The loan forgiveness will not be subject to federal taxes, but the Tax Foundation predicts it could be subject to state taxes in five states. The Department of Education said that around 20 million borrowers would be eligible to have their full debt wiped out, while another 23 million would be eligible to some relief on their debt. Americans currently have a collective student loan debt of around $1.6 trillion, per federal data. Some borrowers say that more relief is needed, while others who have already paid off their loans think the decision was unfair." MY COMMENT As you can see above there are many moving parts to this plan that have not been mentioned at all in the media. All of the various other items in this plan boost the cost of the plan. We also know that a government plan NEVER costs as little as they say. So between this little gem and the green plan recently passed we are likely to add another $2TRILLION or so of spending and potential stimulus to the economy over the next months. NOT a good thing when we are SUPPOSEDLY fighting inflation.......during a recession....which the government and media are refusing to recognize......at least till it escalates and gets worse.
Markets are obviously closed today. We will open tomorrow with Wall Street at full force now that the traditional AUGUST vacation time is over for the "professionals".
HERE is yet another hit that will happen to many local economies. YES......we are and have been in a recession. Amazon to close, scrap plans for dozens of warehouses amid slowing sales growth: report Amazon posted its slowest sales growth rate in two decades earlier this year https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/...s-warehouses-amid-slowing-sales-growth-report (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Amazon is reportedly scrapping plans to build dozens of warehouse facilities across the United States amid slowed sales growth. The consulting firm MWPVL says that the online retail giant is either closing or abandoning plans to open 42 facilities across the country totaling almost 25 million square feet of usable space, Bloomberg reported. The firm says that Amazon has also delayed opening 21 other locations and canceled several European projects, mostly in Spain. "Amazon is a dynamic business and we are constantly exploring new locations," Amazon spokesperson Maria Boschetti told Fox News Digital. "We weigh a variety of factors when deciding where to develop future sites to best serve customers. We have dozens of fulfillment centers, sortation centers and delivery stations under construction and evolving around the world. It’s common for us to explore multiple locations simultaneously and adjust timetables based on needs across the network." The report comes after it was announced the company is closing two delivery stations in Maryland that employ more than 300 people. Amazon posted its slowest growth rate in more than 20 years in July but ultimately posted better results than expected which caused the stock to jump 12%, the New York Times reported. "Despite continued inflationary pressures in fuel, energy and transportation costs, we’re making progress on the more controllable costs we referenced last quarter, particularly improving the productivity of our fulfillment network," Andy Jassy, Amazon’s chief executive, said in a statement at the time. Amazon announced earlier this year that it would begin subleasing some warehouse space as online shopping numbers have been slowing down. Spokeswoman Alisa Carroll said subleasing allows the company to "relieve the financial obligations associated with an existing building" that no longer meets its needs. According to The Wall Street Journal, Amazon plans to sublease at least 10 million square feet of warehouse capacity and is looking at options to end or renegotiate more of its leases. The extra space includes facilities in New York, New Jersey, California and Georgia, Bloomberg News reported." MY COMMENT On one hand it is a good thing for a company to operate lean and cut costs as needed. On the other hand.....I am STILL....very much unsure that all the new management at Amazon knows how to handle and manage such a GIANT operation. They are definitely NOW a mature business.....the initial growth phase of the company is over. Now the challenge for management will be maintaining the growth at a sustained level for the longer term. Costco is an example of a company that has been able to do this for a very long time. I have no plans to sell my Amazon.....but....this company is in a very dangerous time period right now........mostly due to the new UNPROVEN management. I am not sure that a "tech guy" can run a monster retail sales and delivery operation.
