The Long Term Investor

Speaking of KEY future indicators and what will drive the medium term markets. It can be summed up in one word......EARNINGS. The third and forth quarter EARNINGS are going to be critical to where the markets go over the next 6-12 months.

If we end up retesting the prior lows.....it will happen because of EARNINGS.

At the moment the SP500 is once again approaching BEAR MARKET levels......(-19.21%). The FUN continues.

 

I had to look....LOL. My account is in the RED at the moment. One stock was UP at the moment.......HD.

With the big losses this week I am now pushing down toward the bottom that we achieved in June. About another 10% in losses and I will be there. Do I care.....NO. Will it happen.....I dont know.

I continue to feel very sorry for the BABY BOOMERS that are retiring in droves right now. BUT....for everyone else.....that is young.....this is a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY. No matter how long this market drop lasts......the more money you can put into the market during this BEAR DROP......the larger your gains will be in the future. The longer it lasts the greater the opportunity.

 

What an amazing three years we have been living through as investors......2020, 2021, and 2022. Starting with the Pandemic in February of 2020 and continuing up to now and no doubt beyond the end of 2022. For nearly three years now investors have been navigating horrible negative events.

What I find AMAZING is the fact that IN SPITE of everything that we have gone through in these years...... we STILL managed to end two out of three of those years..... with EXTREMELY STRONG market gains.

Here is the SP500 for those years:

2020 +18.39%
2021 +28.99%
2022 (-19.10%) (so far)

When you look at more than the day to day STUFF and extend your thinking to years instead of days and months......we have still done very nicely and are way ahead of the losses.......in spite of the EXTREMELY negative environment and events we have been dealing with.

THAT......is the POWER of LONG TERM INVESTING.

 

I did not watch it happen....but we obviously had a big late day come-back in the markets today heading into the close. I ended the day in the RED......but with ONLY a very slight loss. I was helped today by four stocks in the green.....COST, NVDA, HD and HON. I got in a good beat on the SP500 today by 0.38%.

I will consider this a WIN for the day in light of how things were looking earlier in the day.

 

A very good way to end the day and go into the weekend today. STILL a pretty dismal week for the markets so.....TGIF.

DOW year to date (-15.18%)
DOW for the week (-4.13%)

SP500 year to date (-18.73%)
SP500 for the week (-4.77%)

NASDAQ 100 year to date (-27.32%)
NASDAQ 100 for the week (-5.77%)

NASDAQ year to date (-26.82%)
NASDAQ for the week (-5.48%)

RUSSELL year to date (-19.91%)
RUSSELL for the week (-4.50%)

Fed EX Friday. Why in the world the markets would think some unknown CEO of a mediocre company....FED EX....is any sort of a stock market and economic soothsayer is beyond me. We let a guy....trying to cover his own ass for poor performance with his company....tank the markets. As usual more short term.....INSANITY.

Thank goodness we move on to RATE HIKE WEEK next week.

 

I have been looking forward to playing this weekend. I only have one show but it is a good one.....our best venue. I will make about three shows worth of money in this single show this weekend. It will be a very pleasant 100 mile little road trip. A great place where we have lots of regular fans.

 

We seem to be trying to test the prior lows that we hit in June....but we are still a good ways from being there. Here is a really good summary of the day today.

Stocks close lower on Friday, extending sell off for worst week since June for S&P 500 and Nasdaq

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks fell Friday as Wall Street headed toward a big losing week, and traders absorbed an ugly earnings warning from FedEx about the global economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 139 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively.

Shares of FedEx plunged 21.4%, its worst daily drop ever, after the shipments company withdrew its full-year guidance and said it will implement cost-cutting initiatives to contend with soft global shipment volumes as the global economy “significantly worsened.”

Transport stocks are typically seen as a leading indicator for the stock market as well as the economy, and FedEx pointed to weakness in Asia as one of the main reasons for its negative outlook. Shares of shipping rivals UPS and XPO Logistics dropped 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively, and Amazon’s stock fell 2.1%.

FedEx’s announcement comes soon after a hotter-than-expected inflation report in the U.S. on Tuesday, which raised concerns that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cause a recession to cool prices. That data sparked a decline of more than 1,200 points for the Dow.

“There is a lot of nervousness about how the global economy can affect the U.S. economy now, while the U.S. economy is dealing with its own set of very serious issues. I think that dynamic is what people have woken up to,” said Callie Cox, US investment analyst at eToro.

The three major averages were on pace to notch their fourth losing week in five as a comeback rally looks increasingly like a bear market bounce. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined more than 4% this week. The S&P 500 is nearly 5% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped about 5.5%, for their worst week since June.

Stocks close lower on Friday, Nasdaq sheds more than 5% for the week

The major averages closed lower again on Friday, their third negative day in four, to round out an ugly week for Wall Street. The Nasdaq was the worst performer for the day, down about 0.9%, and for the week, losing more than 5%.

“Stagflation” isn’t here just yet, Goldman’s Hussey says

This week’s mixed economic numbers, hot inflation reading and FedEx warning have brought the dreaded prospect of “stagflation” back into view. The term typically refers to the 1970s, when the U.S. economy suffered from low growth and persistently high inflation for much of the decade.

However, Goldman Sachs still sees a “soft landing” as a possibility, and Goldman’s Chris Hussey wrote on Friday that the economy hasn’t stagnated just yet, even after negative readings for GDP to start the year.

“In the same month that Fed Ex warned global shipments fell (August), the US added 315,000 net new non-farm payroll jobs and the unemployment rate rose only 20bp to a still ultra-low 3.7%. Importantly, wage inflation remains high but it did slow from July’s pace. The US labor market is just not exhibiting many signs of ‘stag,’” Hussey said.

Goldman strategists see a 4% 10-year yield and 4.3% for the 2-year next year

Goldman Sachs rate strategists expect the U.S. 10-year yield to peak at 4% by the end of 2023, and the 2-year at 4.3% by the second quarter.

The benchmark 10-year yield was lower at 3.44% Friday afternoon. The 2-year yield was at 3.85%, after rising above 3.9% earlier in the day.

Goldman Sachs strategists had previously expected a high this year of 3.3% in the 10-year but changed that forecast to 3.75% due to higher expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The strategists said in a note that they expect the front end of the curve to lead yields higher, and that the so-called “flattening” of the curve has also peaked. The yield curve inverted when the yield of the 2-year rose above the 10-year yield.

FedEx warning could be one of many negative earnings revisions

FedEx’s warning about its business could be just one of many earnings estimate downgrades from companies and Wall Street analysts in the coming months.

As fears of a recession began to rise this summer, many portfolio managers and strategists have predicted that projected earnings growth for 2023 will prove to be too high.

While that projected earnings number has slowly slipped in recent months, it still shows more growth than a recession could likely support, suggesting that some harsh cuts could be in the pipeline.

“Earnings tend to adjust with a lag. The market sort of reacts ahead of those downward revisions. So some of the weakness, and certainly if it continues from here, is really starting to price in those coming downgrades,” Jake Jolly, senior investment strategist at BNY Mellon Investment Management.

The biggest losers in the markets this week

The markets struggled across the board this week, but not all stocks were hit equally.

In the S&P 500, Adobe and FedEx fell around 25% and 23%, respectively. Nucor, Eastman Chemical and International Paper rounded out the top five worst week over week performers within the index, with each posting losses of around 16%.

All five far outpaced the index’s weekly loss of 3.8%.

Adobe, the S&P 500′s worst performer

Boeing and Dow, Inc. each dropped nearly 9% week over week, making them the biggest losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That’s about double the index loss of 4.7%.

Home Depot, Honeywell and Microsoft followed, all falling around around 8% this week.

Boeing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s worst performer

Market breadth weak again on Friday

Declining stocks in the S&P 500 outnumber advancers by more than 4-to-1 on Friday, continuing a sharp reversal in market breadth and investor sentiment caused by Tuesday’s CPI report.

“This year has been riddled with technical false starts. Few times in history have the A/Ds been so positive leading into a day with such overwhelming selling pressure,” Frank Gretz, technical analyst at Wellington Shields, wrote in a note to clients. “There’s always a risk in reading too much into one day, knee-jerk sort of reactions. Then too, the numbers say the report may have shifted investors’ mindset. They now suddenly believe what the Fed has been screaming.”

Markets selling off on triple witching day

Friday’s sell-off is taking place on a “triple witching” day, which means there could be heightened market volatility as the end of the session draws nearer.

On triple witching days, options on stocks, stock indexes, and stock futures expire at the same time. these events take place four times a year and are associated with choppy trading action and high volumes.

Bond yields give up early gains

The Treasury market appeared to calm down in midday trading after a volatile week.

The 2-year Treasury yield, which jumped above 3.9% on Friday morning, is now little changed for the day near 3.87%. The 10-year Treasury yield is slightly lower. Yields move opposite of price.

The long-end of the curve is seeing the biggest moves today, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising more than 3 basis points to 3.517%.

UBS still bullish on Amazon

UBS believes Amazon shares remain attractive, particularly because of the ecommerce giant’s retail growth.

“Between Census data and a possible 2nd Prime Day, we feel good about the retail business,” analyst Lloyd Walmsely wrote in a note.

The firm reiterated its buy rating for Amazon, which is its top pick in the ecommerce space and in its overall internet coverage.

Shares of the commerce giant were down more than 3% in midday trading.

Dow Transports dips to levels last seen in February 2021, dragged by FedEx

The Dow Jones Transportation Average tumbled as much as 6% Friday morning, reaching a low last seen in February 2021. The index is on pace for its worst day since May 18 when it slumped 7.41%.

A sharp decline in shares of FedEx is dragging the Dow Transports index. The shipments company’s share price tumbled more than 22%, dipping on disappointing news. On Thursday, FedEx withdrew its full-year guidance and announced it would close 90 offices, five corporate locations and defer hiring.




The Dow Transports’ performance is particularly notable because the index is deemed a leading indicator for the economy’s trajectory.

Oil rises, but on track for losing week

Oil prices advanced on Friday but were still set for a third straight week of declines as macroeconomic concerns weigh. Traders fear that a global economic slowdown would cut demand for oil and other petroleum products.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, added 0.7% to trade at $85.68 per barrel on Friday. For the week it’s down roughly 1.3%. Global benchmark Brent crude stood at $91.65 on Friday, for a gain of 0.9%. Over the last five session it’s down 1.3%.

“Energy prices are showing signs of stabilizing, despite the prevailing risk-off market tone,” TD Securities said Friday in a note to clients.

“With the weakness from positioning, sentiment and liquidity premia priced in, the market narrative is slowly shifting back toward structural tightness as the winter season looms on the horizon,” the firm added.

The S&P 500 energy sector is down 2.5% for the week.

S&P 500 has closed below its 200-day for the longest time since the Financial Crisis

The S&P 500 has continuously closed below its 200-day moving average since April 8, the longest such stretch since the Financial Crisis.

During the crisis, the S&P 500 first closed below its 200-day on Dec. 27, 2007, and did not close back above the technical support level until June 1, 2009.

Consumer sentiment comes in slightly below expectations

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index preliminary September reading came in at 59.5, just below a Dow Jones estimate of 60. That print was still slightly above August’s final reading of 58.2.

“With continued declines in energy prices, the median expected year-ahead inflation rate declined to 4.6%, the lowest reading since last September,” Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu wrote. “However, it is unclear if these improvements will persist, as consumers continued to exhibit substantial uncertainty over the future trajectory of prices.”

“Uncertainty over short-run inflation reached levels last seen in 1982, and uncertainty over long run inflation rose from 3.9 to 4.5 this month, well above the 3.4 level seen last September,” Hsu added.

The data comes after a mixed week of economic reports that included an unexpected increase in the U.S. consumer price index."

MY COMMENT

A pretty active and action packed day and week when you consider the above. Next week it is all about the....FED. We are trying to re-test the prior lows. I dont think we will get there but you never know.......what will be will be.

I will consider it a positive sign for the markets if we do test or even retake the prior market lows. That will set the stage to move forward......not that it means an immediate resumption of a BULL MARKET.........or the end of the potential that we are in for long term......1-2 years of STAGFLATION.

 

Way to go Emmett.

 

I have used MARGIN once in a while for some momentum play or a stock split play. BUT.....I would NEVER encourage anyone else to use it for any sort of trade or investing.....especially in today's market. Things are too out of control and the markets are totally disconnected from reality.

But.....that is a personal choice. As with the use of any sort of leverage......be prepared and able to cover the worst case outcome.

 

I like this little article.

Parsing Pessimism on Retail Sales
Focusing on deep discounting seems a mite too dour.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/parsing-pessimism-on-retail-sales

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Amid a quite volatile week for stocks, investors continue hunting for hints at which way stocks will go. In the very short term, this is—of course—unknowable: Volatility cuts both ways, and it both starts and stops for any or no apparent reason. But over more meaningful periods, as stocks weigh fundamentals, they move on the gap between expectations and reality over the next 3 – 30 months. As bull markets begin, those expectations are colored by a phenomenon we call the pessimism of disbelief: investors’ tendency to emphasize bad news and hunt for negatives in news that would otherwise be good. While we can’t know now whether stocks’ latest rocky spell is merely a brief interruption of a nascent recovery or another leg down to a more W-shaped bear market low, that pessimism abounds today. The coverage of Thursday’s US retail sales is a prime example, in our view.

Retail sales resumed growing in August, following July’s (downwardly revised) -0.4% month-over-month slide with a 0.3% rise. That rise was subject to big positive skew from autos and big negative skew from gas stations—both influenced mainly by price movements. But those canceled each other out, as retail sales excluding autos and gas stations also rose 0.3% m/m.[ii] Headline retail sales also rose 9.1% y/y, which—as many noted—outpaced August’s year-over-year inflation rate, implying sales continue to eke out some growth on an inflation-adjusted basis.[iii] Mind you, that is overly simplistic considering properly deflating retail sales would require squaring up the month-over-month sales growth and inflation rates in dozens of small categories, but the observation is interesting all the same.

Not because it was a cheerful observation—rather, in typical pessimism-of-disbelief fashion, most of Thursday’s commentary didn’t offer positive reasons why inflation wouldn’t be eroding spending on goods and food service. Articles didn’t tout strong demand, nor did they express relief that falling gas prices are freeing up more of people’s money for discretionary spending. Rather, much of the coverage centered on timing: Not only is August back-to-school month, which boosts sales of clothing and school supplies, but it is also typically when stores will slash prices in order to make room for holiday season inventory. Accordingly, pundits credited deep discounting for sales’ seeming resilience, implying that the only reason consumers are buying more is that they are raiding clearance sales in order to pinch pennies.

And, well, perhaps they are correct to some extent. Seasonal adjustment is supposed to account for the impact of back-to-school sales, but maybe it couldn’t capture discounting’s full effects. That said, we just aren’t so sure this is a bad thing—or at all surprising for stocks. Several general merchandise stores have reported the need to offer deep discounts in order to clear stockpiles of unsold goods. For about half a year now, we have heard much talk of big retailers misjudging consumer demand when ordering merchandise, presuming pandemic-era shopping habits would carry over. So if the value of retail sales rose despite consumers flocking to the clearance section, that would imply stores have been able to clear a lot of this year’s supply glut, making way for a fresh start. It would also, perhaps, point to a larger inflation-adjusted rise in goods spending than people seem to expect.

Whenever the economic outlook gets shaky, headlines dwell on retail discounts as evidence households are having a tough time—today’s reaction is a very well-trod one. In our experience, it is more of a sociological observation than anything else, as why and where people are shopping matters less to the economic data than the simple question of how much. Heck, people often tend to get more bang for their buck early in economic recoveries—not unlike businesses’ continuing cost-cutting for a while after economic output hits its low. Doing more with less is a big recovery hallmark.

Moreover, for stocks, all of this data parsing is pretty backward-looking. The trends dominating reactions to the retail sales report—inflation and potentially tepid demand—aren’t new. Stocks have been dealing with them and all of the associated talk all year. The question is whether there is fresh evidence that things are now getting much worse than people have already anticipated, and we just don’t think there is."

MY COMMENT

In a bear market EVERYTHING is bad news. You can take any sort of situation or data or market event and spin it either positive or negative. Whatever sells to get clicks or readers........that is the name of the game.

The media and market predictors......the so called experts.....run with what works.....to get attention..... no matter how long or how often it has been known or said. When it stops working they move on.

 

HERE is a little preview of the coming......FED WEEK.

All eyes on another sizable rate hike from the Fed: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...meeting-rate-hike-september-18-162530690.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Markets face another hefty interest rate hike in the week ahead as policymakers continue their fight against stubborn inflation.

Investors will be squarely focused on the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting on Sept. 20-21, with officials expected to deliver a third-straight 75-basis-point increase to their benchmark policy rate after discussions Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Wall Street will also take its cue from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in the aftermath of the event, along with economic projections of U.S. central bank members and the latest dot plot showing each official’s forecast for the central bank's key short-term interest rate.

“In the updated projections, we look for revisions in the direction of less growth, higher unemployment, and a higher terminal rate – yet, we expect the inflation path to remain largely unchanged,” analysts at Bank of America led by Michael Gapen wrote in a note Friday. “To our eyes, this would suggest risks of a hard landing are rising, though we expect the median member to forecast a soft landing.”

The readout of Federal Reserve expectations may determine whether markets get relief from a recent sell-off or extend sharp declines. On Friday, all three major averages logged their worst week since June. The benchmark S&P 500 shed 4.7% in the week ended Sept. 16, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite tumbled 5.5%.

Hotter-than-expected inflation data earlier this month sparked a new wave of pessimism about the U.S. central bank’s rate-hiking campaign and its potential to significantly stunt economic growth.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August reflected an 8.3% increase over last year and a 0.1% increase over the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Economists had expected prices to rise 8.1% over last year and fall 0.1% over last month, according to estimates from Bloomberg.

Wall Street heavyweights including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Nomura have all lifted their interest rate projections immediately after the reading while raising expectations for a hard landing — a sharp downturn following a period of rapid growth.

Goldman Sachs warned on Thursday that the stock market may plunge another 26% if the Fed’s rate-hiking campaign triggered a recession.

"If only a severe recession — and a sharper Fed response to deliver it — will tame inflation, then the downside to both equities and government bonds could still be substantial, even after the damage that we have already seen," Goldman said.

Elsewhere in the coming week, a lineup of housing data is on the docket, with gauges on building permits, housing starts, and existing home sales all set to be closely watched. Releases will come after mortgage rates surged past 6% last week, the highest level since November 2008, exacerbating already rampant concerns around affordability.

On the earnings calendar, results are due out from headliners including FedEx (FDX), Lennar (LEN), General Mills (GIS), Costco (COST), and Darden Restaurants (DRI).

Shares of FedEx plunged 21% on Friday – wiping out $11 billion in market value for the shipping giant in its worst single-day drop on record after the company warned of a global recession in an ugly earnings pre-announcement. FedEx also withdrew its full-year guidance, citing macroeconomic trends that have "significantly worsened."

The logistic giant's messaging could be a sign of what’s to come as investors inch closer toward the next earnings season, with many strategists sounding the alarm on earnings expectations for the remainder of this year.

According to data from FactSet Research, earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500 stand at an increase of 3.7% for the third quarter, down sharply from expectations of 9.8% growth at the end of June. Analysts have cut Q3 earnings expectations over the last 2-3 months for every sector in the S&P 500 except energy, and seven out of 11 sectors in the index are now expected to show outright year-over-year declines in earnings, compared to only three in the second quarter.

In a note on Friday, Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett said earnings per share recession shock could be the catalyst for new market lows, pointing to FedEx’s message."

"Economic Calendar
Monday: NAHB Housing Market Index, September (47 expected, 49 during prior month)

Tuesday: Building permits, August (1.605 million expected, 1.674 million during prior month, revised to 1.685 million); Building permits, month-over-month, August (-4.8% expected, -1.3% during prior month, revised to -0.6%); Housing Starts, August (1.450 million expected, 1.446 during prior month); Housing Starts, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, -9.6% during prior month)

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended August 12 (0.2% during prior week); Existing Home Sales, August (4.70 million expected, 4.81 million during prior month); Existing Home Sales, month-over-month, August (-2.3% expected, -5.9% during prior month); FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound), September 21 (3.00% expected, 2.25% during prior month); FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), September 21 (3.25% expected, 2.50% during prior month); Interest on Reserve Balances Due, September 22 (3.15% expected, 2.40% during prior month)

Thursday: Current Account Balance, Q2 (-$260.8 billion expected, -$291.4 billion during prior quarter);Initial jobless claims, week ended September 17 (217,000 expected, 213,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended September 10 (1.398 expected, 1.403 during prior week); Leading Index, August (-0.1% expected, -0.14% during prior month); Kansas City Fed. Manufacturing Activity, September (5 expected, 3 during prior month)

Friday: S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, September Preliminary (51.3 expected, 51.5 during prior month); S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, September Preliminary (45.5 expected, 43.7 during prior month); S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, September Preliminary (46.0 expected, 44.6 during prior month)"

"Earnings Calendar
Monday: AutoZone (AZO)

Tuesday: Stitch Fix (SFIX)

Wednesday: FedEx (FDX), Lennar (LEN), General Mills (GIS), KB Home (KBH), Trip.com (TCOM)

Thursday: Costco (COST), Darden Restaurants (DRI), FactSet (FDS)

Friday: Carnival (CCL)"

MY COMMENT

I hate to tell them but we ARE......and have been......in a recession. I also hate to tell them but all of this information has basically been known for at least SIX months now. I also hate to tell them but the.....mythical.....soft landing NEVER happens. AND.....yes the FED will "probably" tank the economy before they are done. They actually have ZERO ability to control the economy short of tanking the economy.

Now....this week.....will we see any impact on the markets from the FED raising rates by 0.75%. Perhaps not. Everyone expects it.

 

Not much market direction today even after being open for an hour. It is a MILD mixed market. Is everyone siting and waiting for the FED later in the week.......or for some headline to kick things off?

A totally meaningless day....especially for LONG investors.

 

Much in this little article is simply an advertisement....but....there are portions that I like and I will post them.

Forecasting Not Required

https://www.servowealth.com/blog/forecasting-not-required

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)



"There seems to be a lot of focus in the financial media lately about what will happen next: with interest rates, inflation, the economy, the dollar, etcetera.

If this is your only source of financial insight, it’s understandable that you may think that this is how you’re supposed to invest—come up with a forecast about the future and act upon it. Then, when that forecast changes, update your portfolio. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if just reading this exhausts you and has you thinking that, hopefully, there’s a better way to invest.

Fortunately, there is.

If you adopt a well-diversified portfolio—one that holds thousands of stocks across dozens of countries as well as different kinds of stocks: small and large companies, value and growth companies, as well as moderate and higher profitability companies—and stick with it, you might find that forecasting and the constant reshuffling isn’t required......."

"There is a better way to invest to achieve your long-term wealth goals. One that doesn’t require you or your advisor to know how to forecast what will happen next in the markets or the economy.

Instead, holding a balanced, diversified portfolio appropriate for your objectives and sticking with it during difficult times can be a superior solution. Especially if that portfolio emphasizes smaller, lower-priced value, and higher profitability stocks. It will likely work much better than trying to predict the next investing theme or fad, and you’ll have greater peace of mind knowing you don’t have to watch every movement in the market for your next buy or sell signal. And who couldn’t use a little less stress in their life?"

MY COMMENT

There it is.......it is that simple. In fact you dont even have to know anything about economics, all the constant media blather, earnings, technicals or fundamentals, or anything else. ALL you have to do is pick a great INDEX like the SP500 and have the common sense to simply put your long term funds in and let it ride for the long term. It REALLY is that simple.

 

I see that the markets have now turned GREEN over the past 15 minutes.

I remember the last time we had a FED week......if my memory is right it was not a bad week for the markets. So much is baked in.....and with the media trying to push up the DRAMA with speculation about a 1% increase......the markets might be all set up for a good week this week.

The big unknown will be the FED TALK that comes after the rate increase of.....0.75%.....yes I believe it is locked in....this week. The FED language will be the key....as well as the insane parsing of the language that will occur afterwards in the financial media.

 

I will get earnings on one of my companies this week. COSTCO. I just got my membership renewal in the mail a few days ago. We dont regularly shop there.....but once in a while.....enough to justify the $60 membership. I am sure I will eventually end up getting hearing aids from them.

I had another company that I own.....NIKE down as reporting this week. BUT....I see they have changed the date for their earnings to September 29.

Looking forward to seeing what is gong on at these and the other BIG CAP companies that I own over the next month or two.

 

Speaking of earnings.

More earnings disasters like FedEx may be lurking: Morning Brief

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-disasters-like-fed-ex-lurk-morning-brief-100054799.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"I spent the weekend reflecting on some blunt analysis I provided on Yahoo Finance Live Friday morning post-FedEx earnings warning.

Specifically, I called the shocking pre-announcement by FedEx that sent the stock crashing 20% by the closing bell an “embarrassment” on the part of management led by new CEO Raj Subramaniam (who has been at the company for a long time in other leadership spots). I then took to the Yahoo Finance TikTok page and lit up FedEx management in 45 seconds.

“Was I too harsh on them?” I wondered. “Should I be putting more stock in the warning happening because of the economy and not because of poor execution?”

The conclusion I came to on all this: No. Because this is FedEx, founded in 1971 by billionaire businessman Fred Smith and etched into the very fabric of lives globally. And these earnings whiffs have arguably become the norm for FedEx in the past year, which led to having to make a deal with activist DE Shaw earlier this year.

Basically, FedEx continues to drop the ball. The economy may be challenging, but that doesn’t entirely explain missing earnings estimates for a quarter by a couple of dollars and then withdrawing your full-year guidance. Doing those things in this environment may be the norm at tech companies, but it shouldn’t be the norm at a company like FedEx.

“It hurts on the guidance, for sure,” Argus Research president John Eade said on Yahoo Finance Live. "But this is also a black mark on the brand new CEO."

FedEx must now regain the trust of investors, which could take more than a year. The logistics giant must make painful decisions to restore profit margins and cash flow – they took the first step on Friday, but way more needs to be done.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see an activist swoop again, demanding more aggressive change at FedEx — not unlike what we have seen at UPS under new best-in-class CEO Carol Tome.

And in terms of the broader market, there are likely to be more disasters like FedEx between now and November as earnings season ramps up.

The reasons why:

1. Overly optimistic execs (see FedEx’s June investor day)
   
2. Inventories have gotten out of control (see retailers)
   
3. Costs are too high given weak demand (see FedEx and tech companies)
   
4. Europe is weak and U.S. investors don’t get it
   
5. Asia is weak and U.S. investors don’t get it
   

Have a great wealth-building week!"

MY COMMENT

Nice to see a bit of.....belated.....sanity about Fed Ex. That miss was a management disaster......not a stock market disaster. The markets and financial media.....choose....to make it a stock market disaster for a couple of days. REALITY.....it was nothing more than a cover your ass.....rant....by a CEO trying to put the blame elsewhere.