The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of retest of the June lows of 3666, we should have known with a number sequence such as that nothing good could come from it. There was always something about that number that didn't sit well with me.

    We are probably gonna get there and then some factoring in all that is wrong right now. I think at some point way down the road after all of the studies and analysis...it will go down as one of the most significant self-inflicted injuries to our economy. Maybe they will learn something from shutting and locking everything down and giving trillions of free money out. We, as a country, made a huge miscalculation in that response. I am not saying we should have just sat on our hands and did absolutely nothing, but we let fear and uncertainty guide the decisions. Then we politicized the whole thing and here we are....still to this day.

    Moving on...a few times way upthread there has been some talk of FedEx and have you noticed the shipping costs lately? Geez, it has went way up. Also, that increase does not include the holiday shipping that is normally added into the equation later. I haven't seen as many FedEx or UPS out and about as usual...in fact very few. People are cutting back in response it would appear.
     
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  2. Spud

    Spud Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, Jimmy. Er ah I meant Joe.
     
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  3. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Well as the storm rages on I am set to add some more to my investments today or Monday. I have continued to do so all along this trail of despair. No market timing involved, but every month I throw some in. I do it on a regular basis and sometimes it is more than usual depending on if I have made some overtime money. I typically will divert some to my emergency fund and whatever is left goes to the investment plan. I have done this for a long time despite what the market conditions are...good or bad. It has paid off beautifully over the long term.
     
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    If this rout continues for a few months.....I will get to the time of the year that I will have some money to invest. Perhaps the markets will give me some really good prices in the December/January time span.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Not as bad as earlier....but OMG....today is just a disaster. AND.....for no reason at all. With re-taking the OLD LOWS from June.....we are now set to drop another 5-10%. OR.....the other alternative is the markets turn positive from here for a while. OR.....the alternative is.....the markets just linger and do nothing.

    That pretty well sums it up......how should I know. One thing is sure.....it is a TRADERS MARKET. I am sure they love all the volatility and the headline driven days.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND....to continue to good news.

    Housing: Luxury home sales plunge as mortgage rates rise

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-luxury-home-sales-plunge-183900561.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Affluent homebuyers aren’t immune from this year’s rough housing market.

    Sales of luxury homes plummeted 28.1% year over year in the summer months, according to a Redfin report, the steepest decline since at least 2012 when the firm started collecting data.

    The plunge even topped the 23.2% decline that occurred at the onset of the pandemic two years ago and outpaced the 19.5% drop in sales of non-luxury homes recorded during the same period.

    The latest figures underscore how rapidly rising mortgage rates have hit every corner of the housing market after climbing more than 3 percentage points since the beginning of the year.

    High-end house hunters are getting sticker shock when they see the impact of rising mortgage rates on paper. For a luxury buyer, a higher interest rate can equate to a monthly housing bill that’s thousands of dollars more expensive,” Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, said. “Luxury goods are often the first thing to get cut when uncertain times force people to reexamine their finances.”

    [​IMG]
    Redfiin report 28.1% decrease in luxury home sales
    This week, the rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage — the most popular home loan for purchasing — jumped to 6.29% from 6.02% last week. That marks the highest level since October 2008 and high-end homebuyers are feeling the squeeze and getting less.

    “Someone who was in the market for a $1.5 million home last year may now have a maximum budget of $800,000 thanks to higher mortgage rates,” Fairweather said.

    Additionally, inflation, recession concerns, and a lukewarm stock market are weighing on high-end homebuyers — even if they can come to the table with all cash.

    All-cash buyers who like to park their funds in high-end homes may also be shying away from the real estate market given deteriorating investment prospects,” the Redfin report noted. “With home prices poised to drop in many cities, some luxury house hunters are likely moving their money into other investments, like bonds, which may offer a better rate of return.”

    California’s bay area saw the most severe decline in luxury home sales with Oakland recording a 63.9% drop. San Diego and San Jose both registered a 55% decline.

    The pullback in sales is also starting to curb price growth of luxury homes, Redfin found. The median sales price rose 10.5% year over year to $1.1 million during the period, down from an annual increase of 20.3% a year earlier and a record gain of 27.8% during the three months through the end of June 2021.

    Luxury-home prices have ballooned so significantly that many buyers just don’t feel they can justify the purchase,” said Sam Chute, a Redfin real estate agent in Miami. “Some homes that would’ve sold for $5 million before the pandemic are now priced at $10 million or more, even though they’ve only received minor cosmetic updates. That’s a hard pill for today’s buyers to swallow.”"

    MY COMMENT

    Those ugly rich people....good.....they deserve it. What is that you say.....they are the small business owners, they supply jobs to the economy, their investments provide the capital to drive the economy. Oh.....ok......never mind.

    I do believe this little article is true. Here in my area the higher priced homes are definately taking longer to sell. Although here.....most of the high end buyers are ALL CASH.

    AND....note......they are not saying that prices are FALLING in the above.

    I see that 30 year rates are now at about 6.29%......and.....in many parts of the country a high percentage of home buyers are going to be in the JUMBO mortgage category which is even higher rates.

    It will be a BIG PSYCHOLOGICAL HIT to the country if the real estate market crashes. This is the average person greatest single asset.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I will call it like it is.....a BRUTAL end to a BRUTAL week. Actually a BRUTAL two weeks.

    I was in the RED today.....of course. I lagged the SP500 by 0.15% today. I had one bright light among my ten stocks.....Home Depot.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I noticed that 666 when i put those numbers up...Smokie. We seem to have the same twisted brain function. I decided against mentioning it.

    BUT....speaking of the numbers. The DOW has now broken through the June low and has set a new low for 2022 today. The NASDAQ has ALSO broken through the prior low and set a new record for 2022 today. The SP500 has another 27 points to go.

    We have NOW retested the prior lows and achieved them. NOW...it is a question of where we go from here and how far we fall. We are DUE for some market SANITY next week and a green week. BUT....if I had to bet real money on it I would bet......NO.

    I am STILL waiting for the expected MASSIVE media fear mongering over breaking the June market lows. Probably will be the media theme next week once it sinks in.
     
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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well we ended the week with many of the big averages in BEAR MARKET territory.

    DOW year to date (-18.57%)
    DOW for the week (-4.00%)

    SP500 year to date (-22.51%)
    SP500 for the week (-4.65%)

    NASDAQ 100 year to date (-30.69%)
    NASDAQ 100 for the week (-4.64%)

    NASDAQ year to date (-30.53%)
    NASDAQ for the week (-5.07%)

    RUSSELL year to date (-25.20%)
    RUSSELL for the week (-6.60%)

    It has been a very long time since we have had a market like this year. Last time was the near.....world wide economic and banking collapse......of 2008/2009.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well we certainly deserve a few days off.

    I was able to successfully buy my painting at the Auction that I mentioned in an earlier post. I also have a little 300 mile road trip this Saturday for a show.

    Glad to have the distraction.
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well here is a little more bad news.......why not. I guess the mortgage rates are way worse than I thought.

    As 30-year mortgage rates hit 6.7%, homebuyers are facing ‘payment shock.’ Here are ways to save

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/23/som...payment-shock-ways-to-save-on-a-mortgage.html

    "Key Points
    • The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.7%, up from 3.3% at the start of the year.
    • While home prices have eased over the last couple of months, they are still up 13.1% from a year ago.
    • The combination has created an affordability challenge for homebuyers."
    MY COMMENT

    If this topic interests you.....see the rest of the article. With the current rates averaging 6.7%.....I am now increasing my 30 year mortgage prediction to......7.5 to 9%.

    Still in the range that would be NORMAL at 7.5% to 8%.

    Above 8%....we are getting into the bottom of the range of the STAGFLATION era....before REGAN got things straightened out with his HUGE TAX CUT, GOVERNMENT SPENDING DECREASES, and all the other steps he took.

    UNFORTUNATELY....we are NOT seeing our government advocate for or take any such steps now.....ENGLAND, YES......USA.......NO. We are actually doing the opposite....of course.
     
  12. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of real estate, who’s here brave enough to speculate on what will happen with SL Green. They’re Manhattans largest office landlords and have increased levels of unoccupied spaces in their 88 skyscraper towers vacated since The Great Resignation and work from home trend.
    Their stock is tanking (duh) and I have no clue how this will end for them. The future doesn’t seem too bright, they’re either gonna stay in business and get into serious debt or fold and sell… either scenario would mean a catastrophe
     
    #12492 zukodany, Sep 23, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2022
  13. Spud

    Spud Well-Known Member

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    Probably going to see a lot more of these before its over. Cost of debt went up significantly. Dividends get froze. Bond holders get nervous.
    Some companies are learning " work at home" is very cost effective in certain levels. Less overhead,etc.
    Didn't dig much on SLG. Just a quick view.
     
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  14. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Overall from the latest reports I gathered they are in deep poop territory. Although seemingly a 10% unoccupied space in their 27 million square ft doesn’t sound like the end of the world, it’s actually quite a lot considering how sought after these offices were prior to the pandemic. Couple that with a 3 billion dollar debt and a work from home trend that seems to never go away and you’re looking at a recipe for disaster.
    And I only mention this because if indeed the company will fold or falter, the headlines that this will generate would likely take the real estate market as a whole to all new lows
     
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For those that have the GUTS to face what the worst case situation looks like......here it is......the 1970's.

    How to survive the worst bear market of all time

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-to-survive-the-worst-bear-market-of-all-time-120034754.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "In Tom Wolfe’s famous essay about the 1970s, “The Me Decade,” he wrote about how Americans had abandoned communal thinking in favor of personal wealth. "They took their money and ran," he wrote.

    In fact, there wasn’t much money to take.

    Today, with the stock market in meltdown mode, it’s natural to look back at other times of financial woe: The Great Recession of 2008-2009. The bursting tech bubble in 2000. The crash of 1987, never mind 1929 — and all manner of mini-downturns and flash crashes in between.

    The one that gives me the most dread is the long, soul-sucking slog between 1966 and 1982 — in other words, the 1970s. The stock market went up and down and up and down, but in the end went absolutely nowhere for 16 years (see below.)

    [​IMG]
    Dow chart
    Forget about lava lamps, platform shoes, and Farrah Fawcett, to me this is what defined the era.

    What was it like back then? What can we learn from that time? And are we set up for a repeat performance?

    Before we get to that, let’s examine the 1970s market. The most devastating take comes from looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In January 1966, the Dow hit 983, a level it would not exceed until October 1982, when the Dow Jones closed at 991. The S&P 500 was almost as bad. After peaking in November of 1968 at 108, the S&P stalled, then touched 116 in January of 1973, stalled again and finally broke out in May 1982.

    Why did the market go sideways for 16 years? Mostly it was soaring inflation and interest rates. Monthly CPI climbed from .9% in January 1966 to 13.6% in June 1980. Meanwhile, gas prices went from 30 cents a gallon to $1. To fight this inflation, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate from 4.6% in 1966 all the way to 20% in 1981. That was bad for the market because higher interest rates make future company earnings, and ergo stocks, less valuable. Which in part explains the market’s swoon year to date.

    According to veteran market analyst Sam Stovall, fears of repeating the errors made in the '70s are influencing the Federal Reserve’s actions today.

    “The Fed has told us that it had planned on not making the same mistakes of the late 1970s, where they raised rates but then eased off out of fear of creating a deep recession, only to have to raise rates again,” Stovall says. “What the Fed is trying to avoid is to create a decade of economic choppiness. They want to be aggressive with the Fed funds rate now and corral inflation, so that we have either a V shape or at least a U shaped recovery rather than one that looks like a big W (to quote from ‘It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World’).”

    Stovall, who began working on Wall Street in the late 1970s, was schooled by his father, the late Robert Stovall, also a high-profile investor and pundit. (The Wall Street Journal did a fun piece about the two of them and their distinct investing styles.)

    Jeff Yastine, who publishes goodbuyreport.com, points to some other unfavorable trends for stocks in the 1970s, noting that “many of the biggest US stocks were 'conglomerates' — companies that owned lots of unrelated businesses without a real plan for growth.” Yastine also reminds us that Japan was ascendant back then, often at the expense of the US, and that technology (chips, PCs, and networking) had yet to make any real impact. All this would change in the 1980s.

    Another factor was that the stock market was richly valued heading into the 1970s. Back then a group of go-go stocks dubbed the Nifty Fifty led the market. This group included the likes of Polaroid, Eastman Kodak, and Xerox, many of which sold for more than 50 times earnings. When the market crashed in the 1970s, the Nifty Fifty was hit hard, with some stocks never recovering. I can’t help but think of the potential parallels with the FAANG or MATANA — otherwise known as tech — stocks of today.

    It really does seem we’ve come full circle. Or so suggests legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller in a recent conversation with Palantir CEO Alex Karp. “First of all, full disclosure, I've had a bearish bias for 45 years that I've had to work around,” Druckenmiller says. “I like darkness."

    When I look back at the bull market we've had in financial assets — it really started in 1982. And all the factors that created that not only have stopped, they've reversed. So there's a high probability in my mind that the market at best is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ‘66 to ‘82 time period.”

    Yikes. So what’s an investor to do?

    Let’s check in with someone who was steeped in the market back then. “Well, first of all, I entered the business as a security analyst in 1965,” recalls Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone’s Private Wealth Solutions group. “I remember it was a period where it was tough to make money, unless you were a really good stock picker. But I remember making money. I remember building my net worth and buying some biotech stocks that did well. And I hold some of them to this day.”

    Now, let’s go back and take a closer look at what happened 50 years ago. For one thing it’s important to note the dividend yield of the S&P 500 averaged 4.1% from 1966 to 1982, so investors in the broader market were at least getting some income. (Getting a read on the Dow’s yield back then proved difficult, but in other periods it has averaged less than 2%.)

    So while the 1970s was a terrible time for investors, dividends mitigated some of the misery by allowing the more diversified S&P 500 to outperform the Dow 30 — something to think about going forward. Unfortunately the dividend yield for the S&P 500 is now about 1.6%: first because stock prices are high and second because more companies are doing stock buybacks in lieu of dividends. However, I would expect the yield to climb as companies increase payouts to attract investors.

    The Dow was also looking a bit hoary back then as it included the likes of Anaconda Copper (replaced by 3M in 1976), Chrysler and Esmark (replaced by IBM and Merck in 1979 ) and Johns Manville (replaced by American Express in 1982).

    Of course, some stocks like Altria, Exxon, and packaged goods companies did well back in the 1970s. “Wherever demand for the products and services remained fairly consistent,” Stovall says. “You still have to eat, smoke, drink, go to the doctor, heat your home, etc.”

    For some companies, the 1970s was their heyday.

    The nice thing is, there were companies that did very, very well in that environment back then,” Druckenmiller says. “That's when Apple Computer was founded [1976], Home Depot was founded [1978], coal and energy companies, chemicals made a lot of money in the '70s.”

    Cyclical areas like consumer discretionary and financials did not do as well.

    Some of the takeaways for investors today are always true: Avoid both overvalued stocks and those of slow-growth companies. It may also pay to own dividend yielding stocks and to diversify. And it’s worth noting that if we do have some sort of repeat of 1966-1982, stock picking becomes more important perhaps versus passive investing and index funds.

    It wasn’t all darkness back in the 1970s. The disco balls lit up some stocks. You just had to look that much harder to find them. That's a likely scenario going forward as well."

    MY COMMENT

    UNFORTUNATELY....many parallels between now and back in the 1960's/1970's. AND...yes....we have abandoned ALL of the policies that kicked off a many decade bull market trend starting in 1982.

    As to how to deal with this sort of market event.....in spite of the headline and promise of the article.....there is little to nothing in terms of how to deal with it. You basically have to be a very good stock picker and just hold on while reinvesting dividends and capital gains.

    Much of the future.....will depend on the make up of government and government policy over the next 2-10 years. Again something the average person as an individual has no control over.

    The good news.....every bear market is different....so lets hope we do not end up repeating what happened back than.

    If I was a FEAR MONGER.....I could make some pretty good arguments that this description of the 1960's/1970's has some clear parallels to today:

    "Mostly it was soaring inflation and interest rates. Monthly CPI climbed from .9% in January 1966 to 13.6% in June 1980. Meanwhile, gas prices went from 30 cents a gallon to $1. To fight this inflation, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate from 4.6% in 1966 all the way to 20% in 1981. That was bad for the market because higher interest rates make future company earnings, and ergo stocks, less valuable. Which in part explains the market’s swoon year to date."

    "Japan was ascendant back then, often at the expense of the US" (China now)

    "Another factor was that the stock market was richly valued heading into the 1970s. Back then a group of go-go stocks dubbed the Nifty Fifty led the market." (big tech now)

    Of course.....I remain fully invested as usual.....and.....I dont believe anyone can know or predict this sort of "STUFF"

     
    #12495 WXYZ, Sep 24, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2022
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Regarding the above.....welcome to my world....I lived that entire time span as a young adult......age 19 to 33. What happened back than in terms of the actual day to day and year to year events TOTALLY eclipses anything going on today. That is why I have little tolerance for people complaining about how difficult is it today. I dont have time to go through all the political or historical events of the time span 1968 to 1982.....but they were MASSIVELY DIRE.....compared to today.
     
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  17. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Some interesting posts and thoughts above. We are definitely in a time of uncertainty with everything that has built up to being at this very point in time. From an investing standpoint it can be a dangerous time. What I mean by that is the psychological/emotional part of investing now comes into play. It can be an investors worst enemy. There are many out there that have not experienced a significant bear market or maybe even one that lasts for an extended period of time.

    The psychological/emotional part of investing is always present...even in bull markets. Many get caught up in the euphoria of a great run and convince themselves they are great stock pickers because it seems absolutely nothing can lose. They seem to think it will last forever and then it doesn't. They take chances and extend their risk over and over as the run continues.

    The bear market eventually shows up and offers some humility and a lot of reality. The once "great" and "no way to lose" decisions soon turn into the opposite feelings. Fear and maybe some panic set in and irrational decisions start to be made. When to get out, what to sell, when to sell, and the time to do it all start to build with great anxiety. This is when the bear does most of his damage. Not only is he delivering losses, but an investor can amplify those losses by making even more poor decisions.

    This is the difficult part of investing. Controlling your emotions. It is not an easy task for most, but it can be done. It starts with a sound financial plan. Each individual is different in this area. The reasons are so diverse for many. What your personal debt is, job stability, your short and long term goals financially, and your operating family budget. Maybe there is kids and college to pay for as well. The beginning of a plan takes those things into consideration and other things too.

    Once you get to the investing part of the plan you are going to have to do some more research. Decisions are plentiful. Index funds, mutual funds, individual stock, bonds, ETFs, international, and the list goes on and at what percentages you may or may not set your allocations to. Everybody is different and what may be right for me...may not be right for you. The reason for this is the previous paragraph. That is why when I see all of these "media experts" pushing this or that I just shake my head. They have no idea about your goals or background. It is a personal decision you have to make based on many factors.

    The best plan is one that you can stick with. When times are tough and when times are good. If you have done some of these things it will lessen and stabilize the pitfalls associated with the emotional part of investing.

    I know many who frequent this thread have already done their homework on the basics, I only add this post in case somebody new or somebody is trying to make sense of how to go about the early stages of making a plan.
     
    #12497 Smokie, Sep 24, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2022
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  18. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Also....Uncertainty is a big part of wreaking havoc on investing. Although if you tune into the financial media often, you would think there is none. They seem to invite all of the experts on to guide you on what needs to be done and where it all is going to end up. IGNORE IT.

    We have been through many things over a long period of history. If my memory serves me well, each one of those times was the end of prosperity, the markets will not recover, we will never get through it, and on and on. The difference....we did. We went on and climbed out of the darkness that so many predicted. From the Great Depression, Wars, terrorism, banking collapse, dot. com, recessions, pandemics, and government crises. The end did not come.

    This is not to dismiss long and difficult times. We have certainly had them. We may be in a big one now for who knows how long. It is the uncertainty that drives this type of thing to be worse than it may end up being. It's going to be tough no doubt.

    The point is....I am not going to bet against us in the long run. Stay sound and grounded the best you can. This storm will pass at some point and brighter days will emerge. I believe it and you can too. Have a good week end friends.
     
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  19. andyvds

    andyvds Active Member

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    I have the impression that some big market players are heavy in short positions and are artificially selling off now.

    In the year 2030 we might look back at this period, as the best opportunity to buy stocks cheap, like 2009 and 2020 were.

    Imo $DOW will go to 100,000 in the next 10 years.
     
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  20. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    That’s probably the only thing W need to post during times like these as opposed to comparing this down turn to doom and gloom end of all era lol
    Duh… is there even a doubt that the Dow/s&p will double in the next 10 years or less? that’s really ALL we need to know. Non of the heavy hitters taking a hit now will suffer from this long term, certainly not go out of business. Pick any FAANG stock and tell me they are phasing out. Come on now…
    The only thing that covid did was make everything overvalued and now it’s all correcting. That’s it! Let’s not EVEN REMOTELY suggest that this is THE BIG ONE
     
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