Well on Amazon. No I dont like how their NEW management appears to be operating the company. I also dont like all the executives bailing out of the company. But.....I am obviously NOT selling right now. I will give them a couple of years minimum to see how they do as we come out of this bear market. What I care about is MAKING MONEY over the long term. It is possible and happens all the time.....that a company is dominant in its industry as Amazon is.....yet does not make money for shareholders. Example......Boeing, and many others. At the moment Amazon is a MONSTER COMPANY......totally dominant......but that does not mean they will put up good earnings if management SUCKS. Time will tell. Anther great example is MICROSOFT.....they were another MONSTER COMPANY.......till Gates lost the bubble. management changed, and Ballmer ran the company into the ground. It is all about BUSINESS RESULTS.......and business results can change very quickly.......if management is incompetent OR has no vision for the continued growth of the company. Another perfect example of a......former company that was considered dominant.....META. I never liked that company or their management....but now.....I have doubts if they will even be around in 10-20 years. With my MSFT example.....I held that company for about 22 years.....but in 2002.....sold ALL shares. When it is time to sell it is time to sell. Of course I bought the company back when the current management showed that they had the company back on a good track.
A BEAUTIFUL open today for the markets. It would be nice to end in the green today and avoid five down days in a row. At this moment the markets really seem to be picking up steam today.
BUMMER for the FED......what they are doing appears to not be having any impact. Jobs report: U.S. payrolls grew by 261,000 in October, unemployment rate rises to 3.7% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/october-jobs-report-november-4-2022-202231255.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October even as the Federal Reserve pressed on with the central bank's most aggressive monetary tightening campaign in decades. Here are the highlights from the Labor Department's monthly jobs report released Friday, compared to consensus estimates from Bloomberg: Non-farm payrolls: +261,000 vs. +195,000 expected Unemployment rate: 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.4% vs. +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +4.7% vs.+4.7% expected September’s payroll reading was also upwardly revised to 315,000 from 263,000 previously reported. Employment data has moderated in recent months, but hiring remained strong in October despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to tamp down an extraordinarily tight labor market that has placed upward pressure on wages and contributed to decades-high inflation. "The bottom line here is that the labor market is softening, but has not yet reached the point where the data are screaming at the Fed to stop tightening," Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson wrote in a note. "But if these trends continue, as we expect, markets will start to push the Fed — and especially Chair Powell — to rethink the idea of continued hikes next year." Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% over the month, higher than the prior reading and Wall Street expectations. On an annual basis, wages held at 4.7%, on par with estimates. Friday's figure effectively serves as a catalyst for Fed policymakers to proceed with further rate hikes, particularly after messaging from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday that indicated slight moderations in the data were not enough for a pause on increases given the tight labor conditions. “Although job vacancies have moved below their highs and the pace of job gains has slowed from earlier in the year, the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers,” Powell said on Wednesday when addressing reporters after the FOMC delivered another 0.75% rate increase. The labor force participation rate in ticked down slightly last month to 62.2% from 62.3% the prior month. At the industry level, the largest gains were seen across health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing, the Labor Department said in its release. Jobs in health care rose by 53,000 after last month's gain brought the industry back to its February 2020 level. Employment in the sector has increased by an average of 47,000 per month so far in 2022, compared to 9,000 per month last year. The manufacturing sector added 32,000 jobs in October, with gains concentrated across durable goods industries. The industry has seen an average increase of 37,000 jobs per month this year so far, higher than 2021's monthly average of 30,000. Leisure and hospitality, one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic, continued its recovery, with 35,000 jobs added during the month. However, the gain was only a fraction of September's 83,000 increase and the monthly average for the industry this year of 78,000 jobs. And although overall hiring has held up in the sector and the broader labor market has completed its COVID recovery, employment in leisure and hospitality remains 1.1 million jobs, or 6.5% below its February 2020, pre-pandemic level. Overall, while economic data has shown resilience in the labor market, Corporate America has been on a layoff frenzy in recent weeks over concerns about the macroeconomic backdrop – with the a large share of hiring freezes and job cuts announced by technology companies. Lyft (LYFT) said on Thursday that it would trim 13% of its staff, or around 683 people, while Amazon (AMZN) reported a pause on corporate hiring after halting hiring in its retail division last month. Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) has also suspended hiring for jobs outside of its research and development, Bloomberg reported earlier this week." MY COMMENT ANOTHER stake in the heart of the pivot advocates. AND....bad news for the stock markets in coming months....in terms of the FED. The FED is going to do exactly what they have said. There is going to be NO short term pivot or reduction of rate increases. We are STILL totally in the turmoil of opening the economy back up. I am amazed that after this long the economy is still so screwed up from the closure. What a mess. Although keep in mind......the general economy is not the stock markets........and.....it is STILL all about EARNINGS and the ELECTION which is now ONLY FOUR DAYS AWAY. We will have much more clarity next week.....assuming that we can competently count the votes.
Thanks for shedding some light into this. I always like to hear what your thoughts are on analyzing stocks and the market. But I do sometimes get confused on some of your perspectives and analyzation. If you suggest that the best way to invest is in mega cap big all American companies, for the long term, well then, that’s what it means. Amazon, Microsoft, Meta…. Those are the companies you describe as a whole. Now, OF COURSE, if those companies fail to perform because of failed leadership, replacement by others in same sector, scandals, or any other event that’s DETACHED from the current global market trend - you are correct in thinking of selling. JUST LIKE Boeing. The company failed to perform and had tremendous issues both in leadership and with execution, and that happened at at time when we were on solid grounds financially. Makes sense to let them go. But now we are on very shaky grounds and the whole tech sector is crumbling. I wouldn’t personally make the connection to Boeing. I would certainly make the comparison to Microsoft or any other tech giant company back in the dot com bubble time and shortly thereafter. But then look at Microsoft now. Did they recover? Yes they did. Does that line of thinking aligns with your strategy to hold on long term for positive results? It does. All with the exception of Apple are down 30-70% for the year. it’s not like they all failed. No. It’s the feds and the government preventing them from progressing by design. So I will go on to say that if I didn’t spend time running hypotheticals, I will still be a believer in the premise of this thread and what it suggests - invest in big companies LONG TERM regardless of market episodes. Amazon fits that description to a tee. It would only make sense for me to sell or even speculate on selling if the market as a whole and the sector it branches off were prospering and it didn’t
Speaking about the FED......a waste of time no doubt. Zoom Out to Gain More Perspective on Traders’ Reactions to the Fed Beware the temptation to read into short-term wiggles. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...e-perspective-on-traders-reactions-to-the-fed (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) S&P 500 falls -2.5% on Fed rate hike. That is how most coverage sums up stocks’ volatility on the day the Fed announced it will raise the fed-funds target range by another 0.75 percentage point (or 75 basis points) to 3.75 – 4.0%. Deeper analysis delves into the intraday wiggles, tying every twist and turn to the Fed’s words—and drawing big, forward-looking conclusions. We urge you not to try. There is simply too much noise in ultra short-term moves, which typically have little to do with how markets actually view the foreseeable future. Initially, when the Fed’s release came out, markets jumped. Live blogs tied that to the following sentence in the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) statement: “In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.” Those who parse these things for a living interpreted this to mean the Fed might soon slow its pace of hikes, rendering expectations for the fed-funds rate to top 4.6% next year overwrought. Since many think stocks have paid close attention to terminal rate expectations lately, this was allegedly good news. But then Fed head Jay Powell launched into his press conference and made numerous statements countering this view, and the more he talked the more markets fell. He warned “the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.” He implied he doesn’t think there is much lag between monetary policy moves and economic activity and claimed “there’s no sense that inflation is coming down” despite what he views as tightening financial conditions, leading him to conclude the Fed has “a ways to go.” The more stocks fell, the more commentators concluded that markets interpreted this forward guidance as a very bad sign indeed. That is one way to look at it, we guess. But it is also just a little too tidy for our tastes, as it rests on what we think is a very flawed presumption: that everyone buying and selling is doing so with a long time horizon and trading on their mid-to-longer term expectations. In reality, much of the trading at any given moment is the handiwork of, well, traders—people making very short-term moves in hopes of capturing very small spreads. Some will hold positions for seconds, some for minutes, some for hours—and many will choose to be out by the time the market closes, lest they have to face the market moving against big long or short positions at the next day’s wild opening. Many of these people and outfits use technical models to guide their moves—indicators based on historical probabilities about what usually happens in the ultra short term. So, we would venture that the market movement once the Fed’s statement came out went a little bit more like this: Some traders probably bought because their models told them a fast rally was likely—see data this year—and they hoped to buy low, sell high and capture some of that spread. Then other models flashing sell signals kicked in, and those sells may have outnumbered the people whose models were telling them to buy into an afternoon dip because the low would kick in. Some people likely bought shares to cover short positions. Others probably sold to close out leveraged long positions. Round and round it goes, and some people made money and some people didn’t and then the market closed down on the day. And everyone involved sat back, looked at what happened, counted their winnings and losses, settled with their clearing firms if necessary, then got on with a crisp autumn afternoon to clear their heads before entering tomorrow’s trading frenzy. Yes, that is all hypothetical, but consider it from another perspective. If you are a long-term investor with a pile of cash on the sidelines and a 30-year time horizon, and you are looking for the perfect entry point, are you really sitting there at 11:03 AM in California thinking, “Oh hey looks like the Fed is going to stop raising rates soon, that clears the way for me to invest this money for the next 30 years, I’m going to buy!”? Or, if you have been in the market all year, weathering stocks’ reaction to inflation, war, political fears, prior rate hikes and all the rest, is there any logical reason that Powell’s comments should suddenly cause you to shift radically? Especially when they didn’t really provide any new and surprising information? Long-term decisions typically don’t rest on such volatile, short-term criteria. Nor is the outlook for stocks over the next 3 – 30 months ever all that likely to hinge on what the Fed says about interest rates on a given day. In our view, this all plays into Ben Graham’s classic observation that the market behaves like a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. Every short-term wiggle stems from the combined action of all traders and investors. That is, the people buying for 30 seconds or 30 minutes and the people buying for 30 months or 30 years. It will often defy basic logic and expectations. Yet in the longer run, all of that short-term noise tends to even out, and the market’s opinion of fundamental conditions emerges. The wiggles fade into a trend. Trends fade into cycles. Then it becomes possible to make sense of the market’s movement and draw conclusions. But trying to find deep, meaningful insight in about two hours’ worth of market movement after a Fed announcement? We think your time is better spent elsewhere." MY COMMENT YES....being concerned about the FED and what they are going to do is a WASTE OF TIME. It is all short term stuff. All I can do as an investor is sit though it and move forward when the time comes.
Well Zukodany.......people need to realize that every time I have discussed Amazon I have made it very CLEAR.....that I am not talking about selling the company.....I always state that I have them on a TWO YEAR WATCH. I need to see that they are able to make money and grow their business. I need to see that management can perform. It is going to take at the MINIMUM a couple of years to see what is going on with the company and why. BUT.....in general.....as a long term investor is does not mean that I will just BLINDLY hold any stock. If a company does not perform over a realistic number of years I will sell the stock. I am NOT willing to sit on a business for 5-10 years waiting for them to get it right again. I will move on. Over my 50+ years as a long term investor I have held many, many stocks. I would guess over that time I have owned at least 20-40 companies that I no loner hold. I have also held many different funds. Fidelity Magellan is a good example. I held it till Lynch retired. At that point I sold all shares. As a long term investor I would love to be able to hold a stock for life. BUT....over time management changes, markets change, business models change, consumers change, etc, etc, etc. More examples of very DOMINANT companies that I held in the past for many years.......and made good money..... but HAD to eventually sell due to under-performance......IBM, INTEL, AMGEN, GE, PM, BOEING, CHEVRON, CISCO, etc, etc, etc. In the end.....you ride the wave for as long as possible......but there comes a time when it is over and the company no longer meets your criteria. For many long term investors there is great danger in never being able to sell. Knowing when to sell a long time holding is a very difficult decision for most investors.
AND to continue......the good thing about investing and business is......even if a decision to buy or sell a company is wrong.....it is not the end of the world. You can always revisit it later.
Yup, we practically say the same thing, only hold different views on when to sell. And as we all know, opinions could be clouded by fear, which is where we are now in this time in history. So agreed. We’re not selling Amazon. And also agreed we’re selling based on opinion, since non of us hold a crystal ball and know when a company ceases to perform indefinitely and reach rock bottom, much like we don’t know when it has reached its peak
AND....to continue.....buying or selling a stock is not an all or nothing decision. For me every holding is part of a portfolio and that is what I look at over the long term....my performance as a "WHOLE". Any single holding...... is also not a life or death experience. To me selling something is ALWAYS a lateral move. I put the money somewhere else....when the time comes....and continue to make money. Even if in hindsight it turns out that I was wrong in selling something....I did not lose....if what I did with that money turns out as well or better in some other investment. In fact.....for most long term investors....."WINNING"....simply means being average. If you can manage to achieve the average gains of the unmanaged Indexes...you will be far ahead of the vast majority of investors. So.....YES....I am not selling Amazon at this time. I will watch them for a couple of years and see how they do. In fact, it might take more than a couple of years to see how they are doing depending on what happens with this bear market. If I decided at some point to sell the company.....I will post it here as it happens.....and put that money to work elsewhere. As usual I HOPE that I am able to hold the company for many, many, more years.....because....that will mean that they are making good money for all of us investors. I will also say....this is not just an AMAZON thing. What I am saying applies to EVERY stock and fund that I own. if the company fails to perform and I do not see good prospects for the company to perform in the future....I will sell it. If I made good decisions in purchasing a company to begin with.....this will either be a RARE EVENT......or at least......a "NOT TOO OFTEN" event. I do try to NOT make snap decisions to sell. Even if I doubt a company......I will often wait for a year or two to watch what is going on. I dont want to make a move based on short term business conditions. With Amazon......the continuation of the impact of the economic closure, the management change, and the bear market.....have TOTALLY obscured what the company is doing and why. So until there is SIGNIFICANT CLARITY.....I am an owner of the company.
I note that the markets have now SIGNIFICANTLY backed off form the opening rally....the SP500 and the NASDAQ are now in the RED. BUMMER. We are seeing the typical EAST COAST lunch hour fade in the markets......profit taking no doubt.
Good discussion above. I see two investors doing what successful investors do. Rational, well thought evaluations and following the guidelines set out in their own plans, Not reacting with impulse to events and just making solid assessments in regard to how they mange and run their portfolios.
SPUD.......DARN YOU...you tanked the markets earlier today. From now on....no more trading for you unless you run it past....EMMETT.
Green is good......and...that is where we are right now. Got.....to ....hang...on....for 35.....more...minutes.
Emmett is slacking. Not showing to board meetings, not attending holiday events.. I think the fame and glamorous lifestyle has gotten to his head
Yeah.....he is spending too much time hanging out with all the other market ELITES. Plus his company is kicking so much ass in their recent earnings.....he thinks he doesn't need us anymore.
Once again I was at the brink of a YTD low and got pulled back from the brink. I was about 1-2 days from hitting a YTD low.....at the same point....for the 4th time. And now......after today.....I have a bit more of a cushion. I have been at or near this level four times this year and every time I have gone back up from there. After four times....it appears that "that market level" is the bottom of the trading range that I am stuck in. It will be interesting for me....when this bear market is over.....to see if this holds up and is IN FACT my personal market bottom. I was GREEN today in my account. A nice gain and a BEAUTIFUL DAY. I also got in a needed beat on the SP500 by 0.55% today. As an added bonus it is Friday and we now get two days off from all the FED "stuff". I had 8 stocks up today and 2 down....the losers today were TSLA and AAPL.
Read-em and weep. The markets were dismal this week.....but we ended on a upturn. We go into next week with a much better feeling......compared to a five day in a row market drop. DOW year to date (-10.83%) DOW for the week (-1.40%) SP500 year to date (-20.89%) SP500 for the week (-3.35%) NASDAQ 100 year to date (-33.47%) NASDAQ 100 for the week (-5.97%) NASDAQ year to date (-33.04%) NASDAQ for the week (-5.65%) RUSSELL year to date (-19.84%) RUSSELL for the week (-2.55%) Once again......we start fresh next week. We are past the FED for about 5 weeks now.....a good thing for the short term. For us long term investors......we sit and wait.....as usual.
AND.....at least I have a show this weekend.....yet another little 250 mile or so......road trip. We are currently alternating between doing shows and on the weeks that there are no shows....working on new material for the studio. We worked on fleshing out the final three originals last weekend.....out of ten total. We will now spend any spare days.....fine tuning all the material....and than get it recorded. HAVE a GREAT weekend everyone.
