The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  2. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    W I give you the well coveted anti spy citizen award.. wow! A tape over the TV screen. That is what tipped you off over the other candidates!
    I’m totally joking man. Gotta keep this thread entertaining ;)
    But in all honesty, between Facebook, google, Amazon, apple and Microsoft. We’re all screwed. And that’s exactly my point.
    I would love to see all of them fold and for us to go back 20 years in time. But the odds of that happening are as good as those companies going out of business. Ever
     
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Smokie.....I think we are one of the few countries in the world where votes can not be counted in one.....or...... two days at the most. It was never like that before...... even in the old days of manual voting and counting. This is something that has become the norm in our country ......since the BUSH/GORE debacle.
     
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I buy that giant 72 inch wide Scotch tape at Amazon.......so I can keep a piece over my 72 inch TV screen when I am not watching. I also had to......of course.....buy the GIANT 76 inch tape holder and dispenser to hold that 72 inch roll of tape. It takes two people to roll off a piece of tape and put it on the TV.
     
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  5. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    And just in case you were wondering how much all of these companies are involved with politics. Here is a list of the top lobbying public companies:

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. IndependentCandy14

    IndependentCandy14 Active Member

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    Good Morning Zukodany,

    For Some Reason, I Have been Overcome with a Sense of Relief after Seeing the Chart you Posted.
    I am Happy, none of my Big Material Holdings are Represented in your Chart.
    I am Holding Companies, that Aren’t involved in Politics. (Exception of ETF’s which hold all those Companies).

    Nevertheless; I am Kind of Surprised that Apple, and Big Oil and Energy Stocks are not on the List.
    Perhaps, Exxon and Chevron would have been on the List in the 90s and early 2000s.
    How Times and Businesses have Changed.

    Good Luck Today (Election Limbo) and Tomorrow (CPI)!

    -IndependentCandy14
     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Since I try to keep politics out of this thread.....especially my own.....I say the below from a non-political...business/market standpoint.

    WELL.....nothing is easy for the markets this year. We cant even get to a nice gridlocked government without turmoil, drama, and delay. I guess we will know if got our gridlock some time over the next 1-5 days.....at least in the House. The markets are reacting MILDLY but negatively.

    Stock futures edge lower as election results in flux

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-9-2022-125636212.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stock futures edged lower Wednesday, pointing to a lower open amid recent gains, as investors mull over a mixed verdict from the midterm election results, challenging expectations on who will control the U.S. House and Senate.

    Stock futures tied to the S&P 500 (^GSPC) inched lower by 0.3%, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ticked down by 0.4%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) down by as much as 0.3% in premarket trading.

    On Tuesday, stocks rallied for a third consecutive day, with major indexes wavering throughout the day but ending higher at the market close.

    Investors’ optimism was built on expectations that Republicans would gain ground and create gridlock in Washington. But the Republican red wave failed to materialize in the U.S. midterms. Democrats managed to flip a crucial Senate seat, with John Fetterman beating Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania race. As of Wednesday morning, both House and Senate control remains in the balance.

    The year after midterm elections tends to see the highest equity returns, according to LPL Financial.

    “Going back to 1951, a Democratic president with a Republican or split congress, the two most likely cases this election, has seen an average S&P 500 Index return of over 17% versus an overall average of just over 12%,” Barry Gilbert, asset allocation strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note.

    The final outcome of the midterm results may not be known for days or weeks, but Wall Street pros aren’t expecting a big move in markets.

    We expect the impact of the election to tilt the market positive, partly because we’ll have it behind us,” Gilbert added. “As far as markets are concerned, the policy impact is likely to be small, and market participants will continue to be more focused on central bank policy and inflation.”

    To that point, investors will turn their attention to Thursday morning's inflation report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect headline CPI at an annual rate of 7.9%, down from 8.2% the month before. Even if the report shows prices starting to moderate, core CPI remains far above the Fed’s comfort zone.

    “We are still far above that 2% target,” Rebecca Felton, RiverFront Investment Group senior market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. “So, we don't believe that the Fed is going to ease up at any point in the near term. And so rates will stay higher for longer and inflationary pressures clearly are likely to stay higher for longer, too.”

    In corporate news, Meta Platforms said the social media giant would cut more than 11,000 jobs, or about 13% of staff, as the company restructures to cope with the slumping digital ad market. Disney (DIS) posted weaker-than-expected fourth quarter earnings Tuesday, with the streaming business resulting in wider losses that offset strong performance at the theme parks.

    Elsewhere, cryptocurrencies were under pressure as investors digested whether crypto exchange Binance will acquire rival FTX. Bitcoin dropped more than 10% to trade at $17,748.44 — near its lowest level in two years, according to CoinDesk.


    In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged up to around 4.1% Wednesday. And in oil markets, Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell to $93.64 a barrel, extending losses for the third straight day, while the dollar also erased losses.

    MY COMMENT

    I do not agree with this article on the impact of gridlock or no gridlock. The policy implications.....FOR BUSINESS......are enormous.

    Unfortunately the markets and business just can not get a break this year. EVERYTHING is difficult and it looks like that is just what we will have to deal with all the way till the last day of the year. The election uncertainty will probably impair any hope for a year end rally....or at least delay it........as we head toward the FORTH LOSING YEAR for the markets since year 2002. Anyone that has been invested over that time.....as I have.....made a ton of money. Once in a while you just have to give a bit back in order to move forward. A small price for the MASSIVE money that has been made over that span of TWENTY TWO YEARS with ONLY 4 down years....counting this year.
     
  8. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    yup times have certainly changed.
    as to the elections- We woke up this morning and absolutely NOTHING happened
    For two years now we’ve been seeing failed leadership, high inflation, market volatility, recession (whether incoming or present, up to you to interpret) and yet here we are, with an equal split between the powers that be.
    what does that tell me?
    One thing- turn the tube off; stop listening to analysts and politicians, and just reflect on my life and my money. There are too many people with skin in the game that tell you otherwise and will make you believe that a mouse is an elephant. And the only thing I need to concentrate on is what makes me money.
    Sounds like such an easy thing to do, right?
     
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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yes....it sounds easy. AND....you are right. The KEY GOAL for any investor is your personal family security and future. I see people every day...on both sides.....that are OBSESSED with politics. They let it overwhelm their lives. They waste their time and lives obsessing over politics and politicians.

    The ONLY reason to invest and grow wealth should be your personal......little....family. Provide for your spouse and kids. If you get that taken care of....expand your goals to take care of your grandchildren and great grandchildren. That is ALL that matters.

    This is my TOTAL FOCUS......life is short....I am not going to waste it worrying about broad political issues and a bunch of ego-maniac politicians. There is very little that I can do in my life that will have lasting impact.....other than trying to secure the future for the next couple of generations in my own family. That is one reason why I actively manage family money. Each generation MUST be mentored by those that are the older generations.....that has been the norm in my family for at least 5 generations now.

    It has been a while since I discussed this in this thread but......starting with my Great Grandfather......all the older generations in my family have worked together to educate the young generation and get them started in life with no debt and on a good financial footing. This has been happening now for FIVE GENERATIONS.....and it continues.

    This should be the ENTIRE FOCUS for any investor. I tell my wife all the time.....we are going to simply focus on the EXTREME MICRO LEVEL when it comes to money, investing, and family. There is nothing we can do beyond that. Our first priority has to be to take care of....."our own". If we are able to do something beyond that.....ok.....but our primary focus has to be on our small family.
     
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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of META.....this was totally expected.

    Meta to Cut 11,000 Jobs; Zuckerberg Says ‘I Got This Wrong’

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-cut-11-000-jobs-143745209.html

    MY COMMENT

    This story is focused on ONE COMPANY.....but......it is the story of all the big TECH businesses at the moment as well as many other areas of business. Big companies are cutting jobs.

    ALL the stuff that we see every day about all the jobs that are out there.....is mostly small business and minimum wage or near minimum wage service jobs. We have lost hundreds of thousands of career corporate jobs over the past 10 years.
     
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  11. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Yea, meta and even the elections are probably not worth discussing today when you have this happening in the past 24 hours:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...iscerated-in-days-with-binance-set-to-buy-ftx

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/09/cry...x-fallout-solana-loses-another-20percent.html

    just to keep things in context. This IS the elephant in the room. It always has been - the lack of transparency that crypto funds/exchanges/firms kept away from innocent investors.
    I would say it’s shocking, but in all honesty, it really isn’t. Just very very sad.
     
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  12. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    As figured, the elections now last days in some parts of the country. Maybe that has the markets down/sluggish, maybe its the upcoming CPI, or any combination of noise. Some uncertainty out there I suppose. And what else is news???

    As zukodany and W mentions above, does it really matter?? It does in some ways and in many other aspects it does not. Without getting deep into politics, (I know we try to avoid that for good cause), I am going to be just fine. I voted to do my part and that's about all I can control with regard to the political landscape. I move on and get back to the real task of life. Same with the economic issues laid before us over the past months/years. Keep moving down the path.

    My investment plan/goals will continue to be based on my individual/family goals. It will continue to be managed properly without regard to any career politician, financial hack on tv, or any other salesman. They simply are irrelevant in the bigger picture. They always have been. I control my plan, my decisions, and most other things in my personal life and investing life. It will continue to be that way.

    I believe and think many of us on here stay informed and keep up with a lot of things....economy, financial news, and even the politics of our time. BUT, we see it for what it is...a very tiny, tiny portion of anything that truly matters. What matters, is what WE do in managing our own futures and daily lives and THAT is the reason we will be successful as investors and taking care of our families.

    Elections, bear markets, economic issues, global problems, and weather are simply events along our journey...nothing more, nothing less. My compass to navigate through any of them has yet to fail and I will keep moving down the path to a nice sunny spot. I hope to see you all there.
     
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yep......there is little to nothing that really matters to any individual.......as a result of politics. Over the past day I have been reading about one of my former High School teachers.

    He was a member of the.......The 502nd Parachute Infantry Regiment.....in WWII. He was in the first wave of paratroopers that went in above Normandy immediately prior to D-Day. There is much in the old movie D-Day about his unit and various men that he was fighting with the first few days. It was total disaster for his Company .....no one landed where they should and most of them were alone when they landed.

    We knew practically NOTHING about this when he was our teacher. We knew he parachuted in on D-Day....but not much of the detail. He died at age 54 the year after I graduated. At the time I had him as a teacher he seemed.....old and boring.

    That is how life works.......even with investing. What you did, how you did it, your life.....is mostly unknown......most people will not care....most people will know nothing about you. As an investor you should have ONE SINGLE GOAL......providing for the next generations of your family. ALL the politics and other big picture "stuff" that happens on the fringes of your life are......NOTHING. IGNORE it all......focus on yourself and your family.

     
    #13153 WXYZ, Nov 9, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2022
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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yeah Zukodany.....I was reading about FTX and Robinhood earlier this morning. BOTH companies are a disaster....at least at the moment.

    Here is some of what I was reading earlier today:

    Robinhood Collapses Following Difficulties of Savior
    Shares of Robinhood, the brokerage, plummeted by 15% as FTX was acquired to save it from collapsing.

    https://www.thestreet.com/technology/robinhood-collapses-following-difficulties-of-savior

    Robinhood Plunges as Bankman-Fried’s FTX Sells Itself to Binance

    https://www.yahoo.com/now/robinhood-plunges-bankman-fried-ftx-190552180.html

    I was mostly interested in the Robinhood part of the story. What a short life that company has had so far....they went from the darling of the brokerage business......to being a "beleaguered brokerage".....with a very tentative future.
     
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  15. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Yes W, it’s amazing to sit on the sidelines and watch how crypto is sadly deteriorating.
    In my opinion, this is too, a direct result of the cash stimulus that we’ve received during the covid experiment.
    The ONLY little bit of comfort (if I can even call it that) is that fortunately for us, the market has stopped synchronising itself with Bitcoin/crypto as it has in the past.
    I hope Crypto doesn’t sink lower as I have predicted it will earlier this year, but in the event that it will I think it’s safe to say that the markets will not be dragged down as a result of this happening, since it’s occupied more with other issues (rate hikes, midterm em elections, cpi etc etc)
    Overall, I still see another 10% drop in the market as I’ve mentioned yesterday, and likely some “stoppage time” for an extended period of time
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well we are now in for the typical election stalemate of 2-6 weeks as we wait for the votes to be figured out and run-offs to happen. Very bad short term news of the markets.

    I was down today.....not a single green position. i also got beat by the SP500 by 0.40% today.

    A NOTHING day in the markets with the obvious result that you would expect.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The market day today.....BUMMER.

    Stocks plummet after midterms as Wall Street turns eyes toward inflation data

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-9-2022-125636212.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "U.S. stocks plummeted Wednesday after three days of gains, as investors mulled over a mixed verdict from the midterm election results and highly anticipated inflation data looms on the docket.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) shed over 2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell by nearly 650 points, or roughly 2%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dragged down by almost 2.5%, or 260 points.

    Investors’ optimism during stocks' three-day rally was built on expectations that Republicans would gain ground and create gridlock in Washington. But the Republican red wave failed to materialize in the U.S. midterms. Democrats managed to flip a crucial Senate seat, with John Fetterman beating Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania race. As of late Wednesday, both House and Senate control remains in the balance.

    Georgia's U.S. Senate race, meanwhile, is heading to a runoff, with neither major candidate on track to win a majority of votes.

    The year after midterm elections tends to see the highest equity returns, according to LPL Financial.

    “Going back to 1951, a Democratic president with a Republican or split congress, the two most likely cases this election, has seen an average S&P 500 Index return of over 17% versus an overall average of just over 12%,” Barry Gilbert, asset allocation strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note.

    The final outcome of the midterm results may not be known for days or weeks, but Wall Street pros aren’t expecting a big move in markets.

    “We expect the impact of the election to tilt the market positive, partly because we’ll have it behind us,” Gilbert added. “As far as markets are concerned, the policy impact is likely to be small, and market participants will continue to be more focused on central bank policy and inflation.”

    To that point, investors will turn their attention to Thursday morning's inflation report, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect headline CPI at an annual rate of 7.9%, down from 8.2% the month before. Even if the report shows prices starting to moderate, core CPI remains far above the Fed’s comfort zone.

    “We are still far above that 2% target,” Rebecca Felton, RiverFront Investment Group senior market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. “So, we don't believe that the Fed is going to ease up at any point in the near term. And so rates will stay higher for longer and inflationary pressures clearly are likely to stay higher for longer, too.”

    In corporate news on Wednesday, Meta Platforms (META) said the social media giant would cut more than 11,000 jobs, or about 13% of staff, as the company restructures to cope with the slumping digital ad market. Disney (DIS) posted weaker-than-expected fourth quarter earnings Tuesday, with the streaming business resulting in wider losses that offset strong performance at the theme parks. Disney stock shed more than 13%.

    Elsewhere in markets, the largest U.S. homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc.'s (DHI) reported fourth-quarter earnings that showed buyers canceled nearly a third of deals, the latest red flag for the housing market. Tesla stock also fell Wednesday following a filing that showed CEO Elon Musk sold 19.5 million shares from Nov. 4-8. The sale came after he bought Twitter for $44 billion.

    On the earnings front, Rivian (RIVN), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Bumble (BMBL)are among the companies set to report earnings Wednesday.

    Cryptocurrencies were under pressure as investors digested the news that crypto exchange Binance said it will walk away from an initial offer to acquire its competitor FTX after a review of the company's structure and books. Bitcoin dropped more than 10% to trade at its lowest level in two years.

    Stocks tied to cryptocurrencies also took a hit. Cryptocurrency exchange competitor Coinbase (COIN) shares fell 5.3%. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) tumbled over 7%. According to an SEC filing in May, Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX, bought 7.6% of the company’s Class A shares. In an interview reported by the Wall Street Journal, he said his company was open to partnerships with Robinhood.

    In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged up to around 4.1% Wednesday. And in oil markets, Brent crude, the international benchmark, slid 1.1% to $94.35 a barrel, extending losses for the third straight day, while the dollar also erased losses."

    MY COMMENT

    A worthless day......overwhelmed by events. Keep your eye on the.....long term.....ball. that is where the future money is sitting and waiting for us. If we ha
     
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  18. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    We ended the day with a bit of a spanking it looks like and tomorrow is CPI I think. We seem to have been hunting and waiting for any good news forever. One thing about it, we are definitely going to be a bit tougher at the end of this.

    Hang in there everybody. You are not alone in your journey. Our support group continues.:).
     
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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The CPI and the nice drop in the Ten Year Treasury are driving the futures today.

    Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, less than expected, as inflation eases

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/con...er-less-than-expected-as-inflation-eases.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The consumer price index rose less than expected in October, an indication that while inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, pressures could be starting to cool.

    The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago. Respective estimates from Dow Jones were for increases of 0.6% and 7.9%.

    Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis, compared to respective estimates of 0.5% and 6.5%.

    A 2.4% decline in used vehicle prices helped bring down the inflation figures. Apparel prices fell 0.7% and medical care services were lower by 0.6%.

    Markets reacted sharply to the report, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 800 points. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the policy-sensitive two-year note tumbling 0.22 percentage points to 4.41%.

    “The trend in inflation is a welcome development, so that’s great news in terms of the report,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “However, investors are still gullible and they are still impatiently waiting for the Powell pivot, and I’m not sure it’s coming anytime soon. So I think this morning’s enthusiasm is a bit of an overreaction.”

    The “Powell pivot” comment refers to market expectations that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues soon will slow or stop the aggressive pace of interest rate increases they’ve been deploying to try to bring down inflation.

    Even with the slowdown in the inflation rate, it still remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, and several areas of the report show that the cost of living remains high."

    MY COMMENT

    A good report compared to the expectations. Futures are UP very nicely. I suspect that we will back off from the current high gains in the futures as the day progresses and we see ACTUAL numbers from the markets. BUT.....this does give us a good solid shot at a nice gain today.
     
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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I agree with Zukodany on the CRYPTO situation. FTX is a HUGE drag on the price of the invisible coins.

    We have also now seen.....that there is NO DOUBT that CRYPTO is not the inflation hedge or bear market hedge that everyone said it would be.

    BEWARE.
     
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