You knew this was bound to happen. The Great Remorse takes over the Great Resignation as most workers who quit their job are having a hard time finding a new one https://finance.yahoo.com/news/great-remorse-takes-over-great-133000047.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The latest workers to join the Great Resignation aren’t having as easy a time finding a new job as they thought it would be, and it’s leading to the Great Remorse. A new Harris Poll, as first reported by Bloomberg, surveyed over 2,000 U.S. job seekers’ recent experiences with the labor market. Over 70% of them said it has been harder than they’d hoped to lock down a good role. It’s a confusing market for everyone. Among workers who intend to stay in their current role, nearly two-thirds told Harris Poll it’s because they genuinely enjoy the work they’re doing and have no desire to leave. One-fifth of those workers admit they’re not working their dream job, but the pay and benefits are too good to give up. And the remaining 17% said they’d ideally like to switch jobs, but in an uncertain economy and looming recession, they don’t want to risk the financial security of staying put. They may have a point. While businesses report robust hiring increases last month, unemployment is slowly creeping back up. Just look at the rash of layoffs—some numbering in the tens of thousands—at companies like Meta, Peloton, Twitter, and Lyft. These unstable conditions may come as a shock to the millions of workers who, last year, had become accustomed to having the firm upper hand. Nearly three-quarters (72%) of workers on the job hunt, Harris Poll found, believe hiring managers are dropping the ball, often ignoring their application submissions or failing to schedule interviews. As a result, about two-thirds of those job seekers expressed regret over failing to begin their search sooner; about the same amount said they imagine their plight would’ve been easier last year or in 2020. Case in point: it’s been a long road. Over 60% of seekers say the search has dragged on for over six months, and many say they’ve applied to more than 50 roles. The frustration and the slog of the job search has led over half (51%) of seekers to agree that, as it stands, they would take any job offer that comes along. That’s one more sign that the Great Resignation might finally, after nearly two years, be cooling off. But things haven’t been looking up for job seekers for some time now. A July report from Joblist found that a quarter of workers who quit during the pandemic have come to regret it. And a March 2022 Harris Poll found that over a third of respondents who regretted quitting said that in their new role, their work-life balance had declined, their new job was different than what they were led to expect, and that they actually miss the culture of their old job. These testimonies all suggest that the power is firmly back in the hands of the employers, whose best bet now might be to warm up to the idea of boomerang employees—so long as they agree not to say I told you so." MY COMMENT I will say it......."I told you so". Amazing how people now think and what they do. The game of musical chairs jobs has now come to a screeching halt and many many people are left without a chair. It is especially telling....but not unexpected.....that a large percentage of the job hoppers now.....regret quitting....have a reduced work-life balance.....and miss the culture of their old job. Sorry.....that is how it works. It is amazing to me how the short term thinking is rampant now in society. A good percentage of people just don't seem to have any ability to calculate.....CONSEQUENCES.
On the topic of real property.......this headline seems a little IRRATIONAL.....I remember at least four distinct times in my life that home sellers and buyers were MUCH worse off than today. BUT....if you are under 40-45 and have no institutional memory or knowledge of economic history of the USA......and are caught up in FEELINGS.......and..... everything being "ALL ABOUT ME".....well, it is the worst time ever. Homebuyers and sellers have never been this ‘pessimistic’ as mortgage rates creep above 7% — here’s what the experts say about the chances of a crash or rebound https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuyers-sellers-never-pessimistic-mortgage-160000525.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Mortgage rates inched over 7% again following last week’s rate hike by the Federal Reserve — and both buyers and sellers are stalling amid economic volatility. “The housing market is the most interest-rate sensitive segment of the economy, and the impact rates have on homebuyers continues to evolve,” says Sam Khater, chief economist with housing finance giant Freddie Mac. “Home sales have declined significantly and, as we approach year-end, they are not expected to improve.” The number of new listings on the market was down 20% from one year ago, according to Realtor.com. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed home loan is currently 7.08%, up from 6.95% last week, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Last year at this time, the 30-year rate was averaging 2.98%. However, it’s possible rates have mostly topped out and could drop in the future, says National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist Lawrence Yun — noting an unusually large discrepancy between today’s mortgage rates and the federal funds rate. "A return to a normal spread between the government borrowing rate and the home purchase borrowing rate will bring the 30-year mortgage rates down to around 6%," explains Yun. 15-year fixed-rate mortgages A 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is now averaging 6.38%, up from 6.29% last week, according to Freddie Mac. In comparison, the 15-year rate averaged 2.27% last year at this time. With rates so high, buyers and sellers are remaining in a “wait-and-see” mode, writes Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. The median listing price is up 11.7% from last year; however, the pace of growth is continuing to slow. The typical price of a home for sale on Realtor.com was $425,000 in October, compared to the summer’s peak of $450,000. “The price of the typical for-sale home continues to climb at double-digit pace, and could finally return to single-digit territory by the end of the year if the recent slowing is sustained,” says Hale. Moving into 2023, the NAR’s Yun expects home sales nationwide will slide another 7%, while the median price will increase a modest 1%. The market won’t truly rebound until 2024, he believes, predicting a 10% jump in sales and 5% rise in prices. “For most parts of the country, home prices are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low,” Yun says, tempering expectations of a Great Recession-style crash. “Housing inventory is about a quarter of what it was in 2008 … Distressed property sales are almost non-existent, at just 2%, and nowhere near the 30% mark seen during the housing crash. Short sales are almost impossible because of the significant price appreciation of the last two years.” 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage The five-year adjustable-rate mortgage — or five-year ARM — is also up from last week, when it was averaging 6.29%. It’s now at 6.38%. Last year at this time it was averaging 2.27%. ARMs start off with lower interest costs than fixed-rate loans, like the more popular 30-year fixed. However, adjustable rates can surge once the initial fixed-rate period ends, since they’re tied to a variable benchmark like the prime rate. Housing confidence is plummeting Spooked by rising rates and economic uncertainty, both buyers and sellers are pulling back from the housing market. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index dropped 4.1 points in October to a record low of 56.7, marking its eighth consecutive monthly decline. Only 16% of respondents said that now is a good time to buy a home, while the percentage who believe now is a good time to sell a home continued to decline. "Consumers are increasingly pessimistic about both homebuying and home-selling conditions,” says Doug Duncan, the mortgage company’s senior vice president and chief economist. “As continued affordability constraints reduce homebuyer demand, and homeowners become reluctant to sell at potentially reduced prices, we expect home sales to slow even further in the coming months, consistent with our forecast." Economists at Goldman Sachs are forecasting home prices will drop by 5-10% next year. Mortgage applications continue to drop Increased borrowing costs, high inflation and recession concerns are still keeping would-be homebuyers wary of entering the market. Mortgage purchase applications decreased by 1% from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). This was 41% lower than the same time last year. “Purchase applications increased for the first time after six weeks of declines but remained close to 2015 lows, as homebuyers remained sidelined by higher rates and ongoing economic uncertainty,” says Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the MBA. “Refinances continued to fall, with the index hitting its lowest level since August 2000.” Applications to refinance existing home loans were down 4% from the previous week, and a drastic 87% from one year prior." MY COMMENT YES.....anyone that failed to buy or refinance during the 2% and 3% rates is way out of luck. Those were historic low rates. We are now back into a normal range for mortgages of 5% to 7.5%. As the FED continues to raise the rates.....we WILL see higher mortgage rates. I am sure that significant price reductions are happening in local areas around the country.....that are NOT desirable.
With the FED meeting out of the way and the CPI......we are back to looking at a week next week that will be focused on EARNINGS. We are going into the week with BIG momentum. I would guess that we will FINALLY know the outcome of the elections some time over the next week. The key factor will be.....do we achieve GRIDLOCK? UNFORTUNATELY.....we are now in the era of the NEVER ENDING elections.....since the 2024 Presidential race will start right after January 1 of 2023. We are ALSO....now...entering the CRITICAL holiday shopping season. In a few weeks it will be Black Friday.....and....after that the Christmas/Holiday shopping season kicks off. My FEELING is that people are still spending.....and the season will end up better than all the dire predictions that are starting to be out there in the media. there should be some really good bargains as business uses the holiday season to ....get rid of excess inventory.
Pretty much what you would expect. The top 10 most-regretted college majors — and the degrees graduates wish they had pursued instead https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/12/the-top-10-most-regretted-college-majors.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Between the sky-high cost and student loan burden, more students are taking a closer look at college’s return on investment. When it comes to value, what you study may be the most important factor. Graduates entering the workforce with good career prospects and high starting salaries are the most satisfied with their major, according to job site ZipRecruiter Even with college application season in full swing, many families are questioning whether a four-year degree is still worth it. Some experts say the value of a bachelor’s degree is fading and more emphasis should be directed toward career training. A growing number of companies, including many in tech, are also dropping degree requirements for many middle-skill and even higher-skill roles. However, earning a degree is almost always worthwhile, according to “The College Payoff,” a report from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. Bachelor’s degree holders generally earn 84% more than those with just a high school diploma, the report said — and the higher the level of educational attainment, the larger the payoff. When broken down by areas of study, however, the difference is striking. Students who pursue a major specifically in science, technology, engineering and math — collectively known as STEM disciplines — are projected to earn the most overall. In addition to STEM, health and business majors are among the highest-paying, leading to average annual wages that are higher at the entry level and significantly greater over the course of a career compared with liberal arts and humanities majors, the Georgetown Center found. 10 most-regretted majors: After graduation, ‘reality hits’ Still, 44% of all job seekers with college degrees regret their field of study. Journalism, sociology, communications and education all topped the list of most-regretted college majors, according to ZipRecruiter’s survey of more than 1,500 college graduates who were looking for a job. Most-regretted college majors Percentage of graduates who would pick a different major if they could Journalism Sociology Liberal arts/general studies Communications Education Marketing management + research Medical/clinical assisting Political science + government Biology English language + literature Although students may be drawn to those fields while they’re in school for reasons beyond salary and job security, “when we graduate, reality hits,” said Sinem Buber, ZipRecruiter’s lead economist. “When you are barely managing to pay your bills, your paycheck might become more important.” Of graduates who regretted their major, most said that, if they could go back, they would now choose computer science or business administration instead. Good prospects, higher pay means less regret All in, the top-paying college majors earn $3.4 million more than the lowest-paying majors over a lifetime. Graduates entering the workforce with good career prospects and high starting salaries are the most satisfied with their field of study, job site ZipRecruiter also found. Least-regretted college majors Percentage of graduates who would choose the same major again Computer + information sciences Criminology Engineering Nursing Health Business administration + management Finance Psychology Construction trades Human resources management Computer science majors, with an average annual starting salary of almost $100,000, were the happiest overall, according to ZipRecruiter. Students who majored in criminology, engineering, nursing, business and finance also felt very good about their choices. Career outcome sets the tone, said Buber. “Pay is still most important,” she said, but “job security is now becoming more important. That happens whenever we have the fear of a recession.”" MY COMMENT WELCOME to the real world.
ya think? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ftx-collapse-black-swan-event-dan-ives-193130301.html Probably a bombastic headline, but nevertheless, a very very troubling episode I truly HOPE that what we saw last week - the so called “separation of markets” between crypto and Wall Street - will CONTINUE in that pace getting into the opening tomorrow. key word - hope!
I saw that little article a day or two ago. It is interesting to read the 300+ comments to the article. The VAST MAJORITY of them disagree that this is a Black Swan event......as do I. Whether it is or not......I simply dont give a damn. It is Crypto.......wild west insanity. Just another one of a long line of collapses, thefts of coins, fraud, etc, etc, etc.....in the Crypto world. As a stock investor.....I dont care what happens to the Crypto speculators. Unless this event somehow spreads to banks, or major investment houses, or has some impact beyond what I see now.......WHO CARES......play with fire and you get burned. AND....people are free to do what they want with their own money.......if the want to buy Crypto and think it is an actual investment......that is their business. We all have to make our own choices.
This whole FTX balagan is an exact comparison to the Madoff episode of 08. Whether it was a swan or a headline is up to the interpreter. It MAY lead to further complications, remains to be seen I think that the VAST majority of big players that helped lift Bitcoin in the past 48 months have already left the scene (no more crypto ads on CNBC - surprising!), and so as I said earlier, I would hope that this would help detach its influence on the markets
What a DULL day today in the markets.....no clear direction. We have been stuck in the same thing since the open.....the DOW up a little bit.....and the other averages lingering trying to decide what to do today. At least we are not seeing big profit taking after the gains of last week.
We are also in a news black hole.....NOTHING happening. Later this week we will see the markets react to EARNINGS from some big companies. Stock market rally meets retail sales and retail earnings: What to know this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-retail-what-to-know-this-week-163022612.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks are coming off of their best week since June, and Wall Street's ability to extend the winning streak in days ahead likely hinges on news out of the retail sector. Lighter inflation data rekindled investor hopes that a monetary policy shift is near, and key earnings results from retailers and the government’s October report on the sector could put that optimism to the test. Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and the Home Depot (HD) top a lengthy docket of companies scheduled to unveil third-quarter financials this week. The Commerce Department will also publish its monthly retail sales report for October on Wednesday, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimating a headline increase of 1.0% after spending was flat during the prior month. Bets that Federal Reserve policymakers will pull back on the pace and scale of interest rate hikes after October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed easing inflation last month helped propel the major averages towards sizable gains. The S&P 500 rose 5.9% for the week, its best five-day performance since the week ending June 24, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 4.2%. The Nasdaq Composite had its best week since March, bouncing 8.1%. The moves came after the latest CPI reading placed the annual pace of inflation at 7.7% in October and 0.4% over the month, while “core” CPI – which takes out the volatile food and energy categories – slowed to 6.3% year-over-year and 0.3% over October. The figures were better than Wall Street’s calls for a 7.9% year-over-year rise and 0.5% monthly gain and down meaningfully from September’s numbers. While the softer data was met with “an equity market ovation,” as Principal Asset Management Chief Global Strategist Seema Shah put it, strategists — and some members of the Federal Reserve themselves — have asserted that excitement is premature given that other economic data will be revealed before the Fed’s next policy-setting meeting in December. “Chair Jay Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the Fed does not put too much weight on a single month’s data,” Andy Sparks, MSCI head of portfolio management research, wrote in a note. “His comments following last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting likely still reflect current Fed thinking — that a strong labor market continues to support stubbornly high inflation and that the risk of doing too little still outweighs the risk of doing too much.” A strong reading on retail sales could derail the market’s push higher: Bloomberg’s consensus economist estimate of a 1.0% jump in the main measure of the monthly report, if realized on Wednesday, would reflect spending remains strong and consumers remain resilient. Investors could interpret that strength as a signal to Fed officials that they have more room for hikes. According to Bank of America, two factors account for the anticipated jump in October’s print: another round of Amazon Prime Day and related promotions in addition to July’s event, along with the deployment of one-off stimulus payments in California, which accounts for about one-seventh of the national economy. A pickup in gas spending due to higher prices on gasoline also contributed to the expected increase. On the earnings front, Walmart will kick off a big week of retail reports when the retailer reports before the open on Tuesday. Analysts expect that the megastore got a boost from back-to-school shopping, along with more value spending among U.S. consumers weighed down by rising prices. At the same time, results are expected to show pressure from inflation, rising interest rates, and bloated inventories that have plagued many retailers. Last quarter, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said increasing levels of food and fuel inflation were pressuring consumer spending and apparel required more markdown dollars. Other consumer names on the earnings deck this week are the Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Gap (GPS), Kohl's (KSS), Macy's (M), and Ross Stores (ROST), among others. The market has rewarded positive earnings surprises more than the five-year average, while punishing misses more too, as Wall Street prices in more downside risk as recession fears grow. As of Friday, 91% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported third quarter earnings, with 69% reporting actual earnings per share above the mean estimate — below the five-year average of 77% that beat, per FactSet Research. Companies whose results came in better-than-feared saw an average increase in their stock price 2.4% two days before the earnings release through two days after the earnings release, meaningfully higher than the five-year average price increase of 0.9% for companies reporting earnings beats during the same window. The market is rewarding positive EPS surprises in Q3 more than average for S&P 500 companies. (Source: FactSet Research) Elsewhere in economic data, the Producer Price Index (PPI), a reading on inflation from the production side of the economy, is due out Tuesday. PPI, which measures the change in prices paid to U.S. producers of goods and services, is expected to have cooled last month. The week will also be jam-packed with housing data, including readings on housing starts, building permits, and existing home sales." "Economic Calendar Monday: No notable economic data scheduled for release. Tuesday: Empire Manufacturing, November (-5.5 expected, -9.1 during prior month); PPI Final Demand, month-over-month, October (0.5% expected, 0.4% during prior month); PPI Excluding Food and Energy, month-over-month, October (0.4% expected, 0.3% during prior month); PPI Excluding Food, Energy, and Trade, month-over-month, October (0.2% expected, 0.4% during prior month); PPI Final Demand, year-over-year, October (8.4% expected, 8.5% during prior month); PPI Excluding Food and Energy, year-over-year, October (7.2% expected, 7.2% during prior month); PPI Excluding Food, Energy, and Trade, year-over-year, October (5.5% expected, 5.6% during prior month); Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Nov. 11 (-0.1% during prior week); Retail Sales Advance, month-over-month, October (1.0% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Retail Sales Excluding Autos, month-over-month, October (0.5% expected, 0.1% during prior month); Retail Sales Excluding Autos and Gas, month-over-month, October (0.3% expected, 0.3% during prior month); Retail Sales Control Group, October (0.3% expected, 0.4% during prior month); Import Price Index, month-over-month, October (-0.5% expected, -1.2% during prior month); Import Price Index Excluding Petroleum, month-over-month, October (-0.8% expected, -0.5% during prior month); Import Price Index, year-over-year, October (4.0% expected, 6.0% during prior month); Export Price Index, month-over-month, October (-0.2% expected, -0.8% during prior month); Export Price Index, year-over-year, October (9.5% during prior month); Industrial Production, month-over-month, October (0.1% expected, 0.4% during prior month); Capacity Utilization, October (80.4% expected, 80.3% during prior month); Manufacturing (SIC) Production, October (0.2% expected, 0.4% during prior month); Business Inventories, September (0.5% expected, 0.8% during prior month); NAHB Housing Market Index, November (36 expected, 38 during prior month); Net Long-Term TIC Flows, September ($197.9 billion), Total Net TIC Flows, September ($275.6 billion) Thursday: Housing Starts, October (1.412 million expected, 1.439 during prior month); Building Permits, October (1.515 million expected, 1.564 million during prior month, upwardly revised to 1.696 million); Housing Starts, month-over-month, October (-1.9% expected, -8.1% during prior month); Building Permits, month-over-month, October (-3.1% expected, -1.4% during prior month); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, November (-6.0 expected, -8.7 during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended Nov. 12 (221,000 expected, 225,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims, week ended Nov. 5 (1.493 during prior week); Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, November (-7 expected, -7 during prior month) Friday: Existing Home Sales, October (4.37 million expected, 4.71 million during prior month); Existing Home Sales, month-over-month, October (-7.3% expected, -1.5% during prior month); Leading Index, October (-0.4% expected, -0.4% in during prior month)" "Earnings Calendar Monday: J&J Snack Foods (JJSF), Oatly Group (OTLY), Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), Weber (WEBR) Tuesday: Home Depot (HD), Walmart (WMT), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Energizer (ENR), Krispy Kreme (DNUT), Tencent Music (TME) Wednesday: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Bath & Body Works (BBWI), Helmerich & Payne (HP), Lowe's (LOW), Manchester United (MANU), Nvidia (NVDA), Sonos (SONO), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Victoria's Secret (VSCO), Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Thursday: Alibaba Group (BABA), BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Dole (DOLE), Farfetch (FTCH), Gap (GPS), Kohl's (KSS), Macy's (M), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Ross Stores (ROST), The Children's Place (PLCE) Friday: Foot Locker (FL), JD.com (JD)" MY COMMENT Looks like a good solid week of CONSUMER type earnings. We are getting into the guts of the basic economy. I consider that the earnings are coming in good.....we are seeing about 70% ABOVE ESTIMATE. Much better than all the "experts" predicted.
You know.....as good as last week was.....it was ONLY the best week since June. That is only4-5 months ago. We have seen some HUGE moves Up and DOWN this year. Some random observations......gold have made a jump UP into the $1700's as Crypto has tanked. The Ten Year Treasury is back well below 4%.....again. Tax revenue collected by GOVERNMENT continues to set new.....all time..... records.....every time it is reported.
I noticed this story in one of my sources today. TALK ABOUT BAD TIMING. Aaron Rodgers to convert part of salary into crypto: 'Bitcoin the moon' The NFL MVP partnered with Cash App https://www.foxbusiness.com/sports/aaron-rodgers-bitcoin MY COMMENT This was released on November 1. BUMMER. All these celebrities and athletes and media stars are partnering with various types of Crypto companies. Reminds me of the movie.....DUMB and DUMBER.
I'm okay with a "no news" day or even a week or two if we could get it. The elections (while counting continues), I think most average folks have simply moved on from it. The senate goes to democrats and the house is still in play. Most stay tuned for their respective state elections and simply tossed the attraction on Washington to the curb. I think the markets have too. The FTX deal to this point hasn't even been noticed by the market either. That is all good. Investors/people have just simply moved on from it. Who isn't ready to move on at this point? The economy stuff will continue to be the main attraction as we go along and we can't forget the speaking tours by the FED that will return too.
I am starting the day and the week with a much stronger loss than the averages. I only have a single stock up at the moment.......HON. At least I now have a nice cushion in place for the next drop in the markets. I say the......"next drop in the markets".....because that is how this year has played out. Conflicting moves UP and DOWN.....obviously more to the down than the up when you look at YTD figures. Amazingly the shorter term.....the past 3-6 months.....has actually been ok for the markets. It was the early months of the year that really put us in a hole this year. I am feeling good with where we are right now as we head to year end. We were way past due for a down year.......and......as a long term investor with REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS......I have no long term doubts. I dont know where else I could put money.....that I could get a return in excess of 11% average. Obviously the SP500 continues to average 10-11% long term.....three years or more. Classic human nature.....that many people look at this return and are driven to speculate to try to get more. The POWER of Greed.
I've seen more advertisements about crypto with endorsing celebs/sports stars....I wonder if they even know what it really is. Obviously, they get paid for the endorsement, I wonder if they pay them in crypto.
I think you are right Smokie. I think people moved on from the elections after about an hour or two on election night. As to FTX......a total non event....unless you had money there. People are tired of it all and are just going to TRUDGE into Thanksgiving and Christmas. Lets hope that the majority of people decide to do some RETAIL THERAPY....as a way to disconnect from the constant BLARE of the media and events. As to the above......I was looking at a list of CELEBRITY AMBASSADORS for FTX the other day.....a long list. Many, many athletes, models, stars of screen and music, etc, etc.
While doing some reading and typing on here.....the markets direction has solidified.....to the RED. All the averages are now in the red for the day. Since it is all about FTX.......I will join in with this......little (literally).....article. FTX's bust and crypto crash come with two silver linings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ft-x...h-come-with-two-silver-linings-103045894.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Let's look at the bright side of the FTX-driven crypto crash to kick off what will likely be another long week for the industry. There are probably two positives worth considering here. First, the crypto crash has not spread over into the stock market. The S&P 500 is up 5.9% in the past five trading sessions compared with a 19% drop for bitcoin. Why is this you ask? Simple. The rout is not as huge as the headlines suggest. "We think Bitcoin and ETH remain a too small part of the market to cause broader financial market contagion, with a total crypto market cap size of $890 billion vs $41 trillion for U.S. equities," Citigroup digital asset analyst Joseph Ayoub said in a note to clients. "The FTX shortfall is still relatively small in comparison to other crypto events, such as Luna ($40 billion lost) or market cap losses in public tech names." So there's that. And two, what has happened with FTX should ultimately set the groundwork for a more stable crypto market over time (hopefully). Maybe that means less booms and busts, which is a positive for investors. There are a couple reasons for that, such as regulators coming in next year with new guardrails and the washout removing froth (maybe fewer crypto events in the Bahamas with Lambos parked outside for the Gram) and bad actors (we're looking at you, SBF). What we have witnessed in the past week is a flush out and it's all good — even if there is pain to be had today. "This should be a wake-up call that what you thought was worth something is actually not worth anything," said Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev on Yahoo Finance Live.' MY COMMENT I love that last quote: "what you thought was worth something is actually not worth anything," That pretty much sums it all up. An invisible....non-physical asset.....that has ZERO real value in terms of assets, earnings, revenue, profit, etc, etc, etc.....and no real connection to anything in the physical world.
Speaking of the shopping season getting underway. As I have been out and about, the discounts seem to be showing up earlier than normal. Also, businesses are having multiple sale days. I'm sure some of it is inventory they need to off load, but a good sign that consumers may just find a deal or two early and often this season. My guess, people are going to spend some money and maybe more than what is expected.
Speaking of the musical chairs job markets for job hoppers the other day. Here is more of where we are in jobs right now. Amazon plans to lay off 10,000 people starting this week - NYT https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-plans-lay-off-10-160522741.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Reuters) -Amazon.com Inc is planning to lay off about 10,000 people in corporate and technology jobs starting as soon as this week, the New York Times reported on Monday, citing people with knowledge of the matter. The job cuts will focus on the e-commerce giant's devices unit, which houses voice-assistant Alexa, as well as its retail division and human resources, according to the report, which also said the total number of layoffs remains fluid. The company did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. As of Dec. 31 last year, Amazon had more than 1.6 million full-time and part-time employees and had recently said it would freeze hiring to corporate workforce for the next few months. The news comes just weeks after Amazon warned of a slowdown in growth for the busy holiday season when it generates the highest sales, saying consumers and businesses had less money to spend due to rising prices. Amazon is the latest U.S. company to make deep cuts to its employee base to brace for a potential economic downturn. Last week, Facebook-parent Meta Platforms said it would cut more than 11,000 jobs, or 13% of its workforce, to rein in costs. Others include Elon Musk-owned Twitter Inc, Microsoft Corp and Snap Inc. Shares of Amazon, which have lost about 40% of their value so far this year amid a broader tech selloff, briefly pared losses and were last trading down 2.4% at $98.38." MY COMMENT I actually LIKE all the big tech job cuts that are happening now. this is going to help drive up....PRODUCTIVITY.....at these companies going forward. These companies all got too bloated....it is time to trim out some of the fat and get more lean. Of course this is bad news for those being let go. BUT....for business owners.....shareholders....this will translate positively to the bottom line going forward.
