This year has been a good reality check for investors. It has been a good test of whether......"your".....view of the markets and companies is based on REALITY. Here is where we are at the moment. Stocks waver to start holiday-shortened week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...o-start-holiday-shortened-week-143442321.html "U.S. stocks were mixed at Monday's open as Wall Street barreled into a holiday-shortened trading week. Equity and bond markets will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and end trading at 1 p.m. ET on Friday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added roughly 80 points, or 0.3%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) declined 0.4%. Shares of Disney (DIS) roared 9% to start the day after the media giant made a surprise announcement late Sunday that former chief executive Bob Iger will return to lead the company as CEO, effective immediately. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) slid 3% to hover near $16,000 and ethereum (ETH-USD) tumbled 5% to just above $1,100 as the impact of cryptocurrency exchange FTX's collapse continued to permeate crypto markets. The U.S. dollar gained against other currencies as a series of COVID-related deaths in China resurfaced fears the country may implement fresh restriction to mitigate recent outbreaks. Oil edged lower, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures below $80 per barrel Monday morning. Moday's moves come after a lackluster week on Wall Street, with sentiment weighed down by renewed concerns over higher interest rates. The benchmark S&P 500 was down about 0.7% for the period and the Nasdaq 1.6%, while the Dow was roughly flat. Historically, the week of Thanksgiving has tended to be bullish. Over the past half century, the S&P 500 has gained an average 0.5% during the holiday week and achieved a positive return 68% of the time, according to data from Schaeffer’s Investment Research. The Wednesday before Thanksgiving has been positive 78% of the time at an average gain of 0.3%, while the day after, 66% of the time, averaging a 0.2% increase. "The stock market’s 'lower-inflation' bump lost some momentum last week, but bulls hoping for the rally to get back on track may be looking at historical trading tendencies around Thanksgiving," Chris Larkin, managing director of trading at Morgan Stanley's E*TRADE said in a note. "While people take time off around Thanksgiving, the stock market isn’t so inclined: Even amid a shortened trading week, the SPX since 1950 has moved nearly as much during Thanksgiving week as it did during its average five-day trading period." Investors are in for a quiet few days. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November rate-setting meeting due out Wednesday are the highlight of a light economic calendar this week. On the corporate side, a few more earnings are set for release, including Dell Technologies (DELL), HP (HPQ), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Nordstrom (JWN). The readout of minutes from the FOMC, which sets monetary policy, is likely to show officials planning a half-point rate hike at their December meeting. DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas points out that the odds for more aggressive monetary policy next year increased last week, both in terms of where the federal funds rate will peak and where they end next year. About one week ago, futures pointed to 81% to 19% odds on a 50- versus 75-basis-point rate hike next month after a lighter consumer price index. After hawkish assertions from officials about the need for further rate increases, the odds of a 0.75% hike have moved up slightly to 24%." MY COMMENT I do agree that we are probably looking at a 0.50% increase by the FED in December. If so.....the markets should like it. The FED MINUTES will be the highlight of the week.......or depending on your view.......the low-light.
At year end we usually make a donation to a couple of charities. We usually do "Tunnel To Towers" and "Wounded Warrior Project". SO......as the year winds down.......dont forget to put some money to work for others in some form. It never hurts to give something back and help out a cause that you believe in.
OK.........which one is it? (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) Stocks: 'The bear market is not over,' according to Goldman Sachs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-bear-market-goldman-sachs-104046106.html "The feel good vibes in the markets this holiday season may be coming to an end, warns Goldman Sachs. "The bear market is not over, in our view," closely followed Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a new note. "The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached. We would expect lower valuations (consistent with recessionary outcomes), a trough in the momentum of growth deterioration, and a peak in interest rates before a sustained recovery begins." Oppenheimer last warned in early September that stocks were not out of the woods. After Oppenheimer's call, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) went onto touch a fresh low for the year in mid-October on the back of rising interest rates and still high inflation readings. "The recent rebound in equities is not the first we have seen in this bear market," the note stated. "In our view, the speed of the rise in interest rates (rather than their absolute level) has the potential to do more damage as investors are likely to increasingly focus on growth and earnings weakness." Many investors have been trying hard to put thoughts of bear markets in the rearview mirror. Amid signs of an easing in inflation and a renewed drop in the U.S. dollar, stocks have rallied since those aforementioned October lows. In the past month alone, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is up 10.6% and the S&P 500 has gained 6.6%. But Oppenheimer warns the hope is likely to fade, and soon. "We continue to think that the near-term path for equity markets is likely to be volatile and down before reaching a final trough in 2023," Oppenheimer added. "So while near-term risks are to the downside in global equities, it is likely that they enter a 'Hope' phase in 2023; we expect overall returns between now and the end of next year to be relatively low."" OR Markets will shift to a ‘hope’ phase next year, and investors would be wise not to miss it, says Goldman Sachs https://finance.yahoo.com/m/07dfd40b-be5d-33b4-afbc-13e0775ecfb1/markets-will-shift-to-a.html "Fresh China COVID-19 worries are threatening to nix any preholiday gains for Wall Street, with stocks struggling, oil tumbling and the dollar higher as Monday’s session gets underway. In a shortened week that will bring both Thanksgiving and the World Cup kickoff, investors have all sorts of excuses to head to the sidelines. Those sticking around will be grinding through the traditional data dump on Wednesday and even an appearance by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. There’s more caution on our call of the day, where Goldman Sachs’s 2023 outlook predicts a “volatile” ride to the bottom of this bear market, before a more optimistic phase takes hold in 2023. And investors will need to time the latter just right. “We expect markets to transition into a ‘Hope’ phase of the next bull market at some point in 2023, but from a lower level,” said a team led by Goldman’s chief global strategist Peter Oppenheimer, in a note to clients. “The initial rebound from the trough is likely to be strong, in common with the beginning of most cycles before transitioning into a ‘Post Modern Cycle’ with lower returns.” But before investors can get to the hopeful phase, they must grind through the rest of this bear market that Oppenheimer and the team say has some ways to go. They are concerned over recent fresh optimism over the possibility of slowing interest rate increases that has driven around a 5% gain in equities since June, even with real U.S. interest rates up 85 basis points and 10-year yields TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.787% more than 50 basis points higher since then. “The recent rebound in equities is not the first we have seen in this bear market. In our view, the speed of the rise in interest rates (rather than their absolute level) has the potential to do more damage as investors are likely to increasingly focus on growth and earnings weakness,” said Oppenheimer and the team. For that reason, they expect overall returns to be relatively low between now and the end of 2023, where they see the S&P 500 SPX, -0.64% finishing around 4,000. Right now, we’re stuck in a “cyclical” bear market that typically sees falls of around 30%, lasting for 26 months, with 50 months required for recovery, said the bank. Through the balance of 2023, they do see conditions for a recovery starting to come together. And this suggests that from a lower level, prospects for transitioning into a “hope” phase of the next cycle will be strong. Pay close attention here, says Oppenheimer and co: “These recoveries typically start during recessions and are driven predominantly by valuation expansion and can be costly to miss.” Goldman Sachs Catching the “hope” phase just right is indeed tricky. Their above chart shows how average returns overall in the following 12 months are much higher if an investor waits one month until after the trough as opposed to investing a month before. Also during that phase, initial recovery trends tend to be led by assets that have underperformed the most during the bear market phase. “This is what makes these transitions so difficult to navigate — the recovery when it comes tends to be swift and led by the types of companies that investors tend to avoid through the bear market.” “That said, this is ‘the trade after the trade’ and we think it is premature to be positioning for this now” said Goldman, urging investors to hold their horses. As for right now, strategists are all in on a “barbell approach,” which means investing across the risk spectrum with the goal of getting a more even portfolio. Their mix consists of quality, strong balance sheet and stable margin companies, with deep value, energy and resources where valuation risks remain limited. “We like companies that can compound earnings and returns through a combination of reinvestment and dividends over time,” he said, adding that in contrast to the last cycle, they want more diversification across styles and regions and more emphasis on valuation, which should “enhance returns through 2023.” The markets MarketWatch Stocks DJIA, -0.35% SPX, -0.64% COMP, -1.01% have opened mostly lower, with the Dow just nudging into the green, thanks to Disney gains, with bond yields TY00, +0.18% TU00, -0.04% lower and oil prices CL.1, -6.17% dropping sharply on China worries, while the dollar DXY, +0.83% is having a strong session so far. Asia stocks were mixed, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, -1.87% dropping 2%." MY COMMENT Here you have basically the same prediction.....given a negative slant in one article and a positive slant in another. Personally I prefer the content and structure of the second article especially the following: "a “volatile” ride to the bottom of this bear market, before a more optimistic phase takes hold in 2023. And investors will need to time the latter just right." "Through the balance of 2023, they do see conditions for a recovery starting to come together. And this suggests that from a lower level, prospects for transitioning into a “hope” phase of the next cycle will be strong. Pay close attention here, says Oppenheimer and co: “These recoveries typically start during recessions and are driven predominantly by valuation expansion and can be costly to miss.”" "initial recovery trends tend to be led by assets that have underperformed the most during the bear market phase. “This is what makes these transitions so difficult to navigate — the recovery when it comes tends to be swift and led by the types of companies that investors tend to avoid through the bear market.”" "Their mix consists of quality, strong balance sheet and stable margin companies, with deep value, energy and resources where valuation risks remain limited. " SO......actually BOTH will have a good shot at being true in 2023. This is how you cover both sides if you are in the prediction business. In the end it will NOT MATTER to long term investors that remain invested in the markets. The recovery WILL come and stocks will once again go UP. Trying to time this will be IMPOSSIBLE if you are not in the markets. You will certainly....according to the research.....MISS the upturn if you are trying to time the markets. As usual it will be the ICONIC, QUALITY companies.......the cream of the crop.....that will lead the way out of the........bear market forest of despair.
I just checked out my account. A MILD loss day so far. It was actually better than I expected.....since....I had four stocks UP at the moment.....MSFT, COST, HD, and HON. COSTCO is just an amazing company. Out of my ten stocks they are the company that has the LARGEST gain in my entire portfolio. I have had a stake in that business for a long time. Their consistency has been amazing.....the simply do what they do the same way, over, and over, and over. I have NEVER seen their management lose focus. They are an amazing example of a non-sexy company........a warehouse retailer.......quietly leading the way for many years. Everyone tends to focus on the sexy TECH companies.......yet COSTCO just kicks butt over and over and over.
A perfect example of what investors have seen/read since...forever. I have seen this fairly regular throughout this year too. Many times a firm or expert will put out a story and only a week or so later, run a different opinion. Sometimes I wonder if the media calls these people up and say "Negativity is at a high this week, can you give us something to run on?" Or "There is a rally going on, can you give us something to put out today?" It is no wonder a significant portion of investors continually chase their tail for nothing. What it really boils down to with all of their predictions and waffling from one point to the other is quite simple. They want you to believe they are smarter than everyone else. That there is simply no way an average investor can navigate these market conditions. They want you to believe something must be done or changed to alter your course. Maybe it is to invest in one of their managed funds or some other kind of "deal." They want you to believe "everyone" else is doing better in this environment of fear, chaos, and the unknown. In fact, many of these firms/experts drive a lot of uncertainty themselves as evidenced by the above stories. Then investors get all sorts of charts, graphs, analysis, studies, theories and opinions tossed at them from every direction. Of course it seems overwhelming and complicated. Only an expert could manage something like that and they just keep pouring it on until they can convince investors that they have the answers you have been searching for. No, they are not right. Although, since they gave themselves a stake on each side of it, they may be half right in some terms. Investing can be simple, but you have to cut away all of the BS. You have to be disciplined and know your risk tolerance. Yes, an investor will need to do some of their own research and develop a long term plan and structure it to you or your family financial goals. Design it so you can stick to it without sudden or major changes. It can be relatively simple to construct, but you have to commit to that type of investment style.
'Investing can be simple, but you have to cut away all of the BS. You have to be disciplined and know your risk tolerance. Yes, an investor will need to do some of their own research and develop a long term plan and structure it to you or your family financial goals. Design it so you can stick to it without sudden or major changes. It can be relatively simple to construct, but you have to commit to that type of investment style." Good one Smokie. What is supremely simple is totally difficult for the human brain. It takes a lifetime of FOCUS and DISCIPLINE. Something that is impossible for most people
The markets were a little saggy today. No UMPF......at all. I ended the day in the red......I doubt that I was ever not in the red today. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.44%. Earlier I had four stocks UP today....at the end it was only three.....MSFT, HD, and HON. I should not have bragged about COST.....I jinxed them today. I got NO feel from the markets at all today......a very DULL DAY that was doomed from the start. No enthusiasm, no nothing today.
I see that the usual suspects.....the FED....could not stand to simply sit down and shut up today......they never can. Stocks fall, oil slides, Disney rises to start holiday-shortened week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-21-2022-203929590.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks sank Monday as Wall Street barreled into a holiday-shortened trading week. Equity and bond markets will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and end trading at 1 p.m. ET on Friday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped roughly 45 points, or 0.1%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) declined 1.1%. Investors assessed more Fedspeak in the final hour of Monday's session. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said officials may lift the U.S. central bank's key policy rate above 5% if inflation does not ease. Daly also noted that writing off a 75-basis-point hike in December is "premature," and "nothing is off the table." "I tend to be on the more hawkish side of the distribution” Daly said in a conference call, referring to the spectrum of her colleagues from most aggressive on tightening policy to least. Oil extended losses following reports Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries are discussing an output increase. A series of COVID-related deaths in China also resurfaced fears the country may implement fresh restrictions to mitigate recent outbreaks. Both events spurred concerns over demand, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures falling below $80 per barrel. The U.S. dollar gained against other currencies on concerns around the COVID picture in China. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) slid 4% below $16,000 and ethereum (ETH-USD) tumbled 6% to just below $1,100 as the impact of cryptocurrency exchange FTX's collapse continued to permeate crypto markets. Meanwhile, shares of Disney (DIS) roared 6% despite a down day in other areas of the market after the media giant made a surprise announcement late Sunday that former chief executive Bob Iger will return to lead the company as CEO, effective immediately. Monday's moves come after a lackluster week on Wall Street, with sentiment weighed down by renewed concerns over higher interest rates. The benchmark S&P 500 was down about 0.7% for the period and the Nasdaq 1.6%, while the Dow was roughly flat." MY COMMENT It was a very slow-roll day as the markets unwound in slow motion for most of the day. AND....to top it all off we got the MANDATORY....market killer, the FED......blabbing about making things worse. this has got to be the most DISMAL FED strategy that I have seen. I have sat through worse times in my life.....but....this FED is just determined to take their incompetence out on stock investors and the markets. I have BAD NEWS for the FED.....the stock markets are not the economy and the economy is NOT the stock markets. This little campaign to kill of the markets is simply a waste of time and money.
I think the move by the Disney Board was a good move. What I HATE about how they did it.....is the new three year contract that they gave the old CEO knowing that they were making a move. It just REEKS of an inside pay-off and cronyism. They always take care of each other. Management malpractice and a total waste of corporate assets. Walt Disney executives staged revolt against ousted chief Bob Chapek Rebellion by senior staff hastened reinstatement of predecessor Bob Iger https://www.ft.com/content/a9277a18...traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Senior Walt Disney executives led a rebellion against chief executive Bob Chapek in recent weeks, which resulted in his ousting and replacement with predecessor Bob Iger, according to people familiar with the matter. The covert campaign to overthrow Chapek, which began in the summer, came after the outgoing chief executive lost the confidence of some members of his top team during a tumultuous 33 months at the helm of the media empire. “A lot of people were approaching the board, Iger loyalists who felt marginalised,” said one person with knowledge of the talks. Shares in Walt Disney rallied as much as 10 per cent on Monday as investors wagered that Iger, one of America’s most celebrated media executives, could lift morale and boost returns at the company’s costly streaming unit. The company’s stock price remained up more than 5 per cent in early afternoon trading in New York. Disney executives began approaching the board, which is chaired by Susan Arnold, a few months ago to express concerns about Chapek’s leadership. Christine McCarthy, chief financial officer, was among the executives who complained, three of the people said. Disney declined to comment. “[The board] were clueless about what to do,” one person added. The final straw was Disney’s bruising earnings release on November 8, during which Chapek reported the company’s streaming business had lost $1.5bn during the most recent quarter. Three days later, Chapek announced job cuts, telling staff in an email: “We are going to have to make tough and uncomfortable decisions.” Iger, who ran Disney for 15 years before leaving in 2021, stunned Hollywood on Sunday night by agreeing to replace Chapek. Iger had handpicked Chapek as his successor after he won plaudits for his management of Disney’s theme parks division. The changes at the top come after the company’s stock had fallen nearly 40 per cent this year as Disney and others spent heavily to compete in streaming, a business that has been costly and less profitable than cable television or cinema. Relations between the “two Bobs” quickly soured as Iger bristled over Chapek’s handling of Disney’s creative output and his management shake-up, which introduced more centralised decision making and empowered Chapek’s allies. The decision to reinstate Iger, brokered by Arnold, came less than six months after Disney renewed Chapek’s contract for a further three years, quelling speculation of a potential exit. People close to Chapek said he became aware of the moves against him some weeks ago but was caught off guard by the speed of events. The abrupt dismissal will entitle Chapek to a significant payout. Under his old contract, at the end of 2021 he was entitled to an estimated $54mn in cash and stock in the event of early termination. The company has not published the full details of his most recent contract. Iger, 71, has agreed to stay on for two years to help steady the ship and choose another successor. Iger, who delayed his retirement four times before finally leaving the company, said in a memo to staff on Sunday that he felt “a bit of amazement” that he was returning to the company. As recession fears grow, investors have become increasingly concerned about the high costs of streaming, weighing on the valuations of all major US entertainment companies this year. MoffettNathanson analysts expect Iger to “re-examine” Disney’s streaming strategy. Steven Cahall, a Wells Fargo analyst, said: “While the announcement doesn’t solve all of Disney’s problems, we think investors will embrace it as it puts perhaps the best leader in media at the helm with a mandate to shake things up.”" MY COMMENT A good move......but simply ASININE with the timing of the new contract. What a waste of company money. They could have simply delayed doing a new contract and been......"relatively".....off the hook. Lets hope some smart lawyer inserted some language into the new contract that is highly desirable in favor of the company in the event of a FIRING. I do agree totally with the firing. The company will be much better off without him.....but than again he was the hand-picked successor of Iger......so you have to have a bit of concern for the future. They need to focus on getting this company out of the social and political issues.
NO.....we have a long way to go to get out of the FTX WOODS. There is a significant chance for continued impact on other companies. Coinbase shares tumble as bitcoin slide continues, investors fear contagion from FTX collapse https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/21/coi...itcoin-slides-ftx-related-concerns-mount.html The other Crypto companies better start wearing masks and lining up for the vaccine......the risk of contagion is real. I dont see any real risk from this event.....however....outside of the Crypto space. So glad that I have no taste for or interest in Crypto. I am in the camp that sees absolutely ZERO value or utility. "The Emperors New Cloths"....camp. Ok, yeah.....kick them while they are down.
As if we did not know already. The headline today "U.S. stocks moved higher Tuesday as investors awaited scheduled remarks from Federal Reserve officials for clues on the U.S. central bank's path forward for interest rates." They simply just cannot help going longer than a day or two without speaking. It really serves no purpose to continue the almost daily dose of FED speak. Especially when some have different messages. It just makes the whole group look incompetent. Even if they had a single, consistent message, do we really need to hear it three or four times a week? I find it somewhat amusing that we did not hear much of a peep from any of them during the whole over stimulation phase. The few times we did, it was to deny that inflation was going to be an issue. They could not recognize it then, but somehow now they are supposed to be competent.
We are seeing a nice little rally at the open today.....although......the NASDAQ is not that strong. I have been siting and watching the markets since the open. I held off on posting anything because I was busy......peeling ten pounds of potatos. Like most things in the modern world......the peeler that worked the best was NOT the modern, high tech, ergonomic, peeler.....it was the old metal basic, 1950's model. Funny....how that often seems to be the case. What I needed was a wireless peeler that I could link to my phone with an app. One of the benefits of the high tech, wireless peeler....... would be the ability to record the number of strokes, as well as, my calories expended in the peeling. Of course that data and other wireless functions.....on my wireless peeler...... would have NOTHING to do with actual productivity. It would just be useless data......but....it would make me feel so good about myself and how much work I was doing.
Of course with a nice open it is time.......to cue the MORONS. Stocks rise ahead of more Fedspeak https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-22-2022-122736516.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks moved higher Tuesday as investors awaited scheduled remarks from Federal Reserve officials for clues on the U.S. central bank's path forward for interest rates. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) nudged up 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced by 175 points, or about 0.5%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added a modest 0.1%. Wall Street will tune into speaking engagements by Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Tuesday for any potential hints on monetary policy moves in the coming months. On Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said officials may lift the U.S. central bank's key policy rate above 5% if inflation does not ease. Daly also noted that writing off a 75-basis-point hike in December is "premature," and "nothing is off the table." In commodities markets, oil pared Monday’s losses after plunging to January lows on fears that fresh lockdowns in China and a reported output increase by Saudia Arabia and OPEC may weigh on demand. Energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has since refuted the prospect of an increase in production, helping oil climb back from declines. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose to around $81 per barrel after hitting $75 per barrel on Monday. On the corporate side, shares of Zoom Video Communications (ZM) dropped nearly 8% after the the video-conferencing platform trimmed its annual revenue outlook and projected further challenges posed by waning demand for online meetings. A steep climb in COVID cases across China has set off a wave of new restrictions for the world's largest economy just weeks after investors cheered the end of aggressive lockdowns in the country. ‘’The specter of COVID is still hovering over the Chinese economy, threatening to cause fresh snarl ups for supply chains and demand for goods,” Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown said in a note Tuesday. The S&P 500 has started the holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week lower compared to previous years. According to data from Bespoke Investment Group, the Monday of Thanksgiving week has historically seen the index trade slightly lower, with a decline of 0.01%. In years when the index has been down 10% year-to-date or more, like in 2022, performance has been more positive, with an average 0.37% gain." MY COMMENT Of course.....more FED baloney. You would think the markets after this many months of hearing the same song and dance from the FED would simply tune them out. It is NEVER anything new or newsworthy. Not only are the markets having to brave the constant "crap" from the FED......they have to deal with the constant news out of China. If I was paranoid....I would swear that China is dong most of this covid shut-down stuff to simply harass and weaken the economy of the USA. Much of their actions in shutting down plants, cities, etc, etc, is impacting the big tech companies that are doing business and manufacturing in China. These companies NEED......strongly NEED......to get the hell out of China. Lets move all this stuff to INDIA......or anywhere but China.
The work remote MANIA is starting to get ridiculous.....and hopefully.....unravel. ‘Stealth workers’ lying to their bosses about where they work are costing companies tons of money https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stealth-workers-lying-bosses-where-184646632.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Some remote workers are playing hooky from their company’s homebase these days, and bosses are catching on. The pandemic challenged the idea that the office was an important fixture of the workplace as people working from home were found to be just as productive. Some relished their newfound freedom away from their desks, giving rise to a growing crop of digital nomads life who worked from alternative living situations like a van on the road or from Airbnbs in countries offering digital nomad visas like Portugal. But such flexibility has been curtailed as companies increasingly push for a return to the office. Some workers aren’t ready to give up their travels all that easily, preferring to maintain a better work-life balance and standard of living. Enter what Bloomberg deems ‘stealth workers,’ employees willing to go the extra mile to hide the fact that they’re living more than an extra mile from their company’s headquarters. As Bloomberg describes it, these workers continuously bop around more affordable locations, using VPN to hide that they’re working abroad, logging in as early as 2 a.m. to disguise their actual time zone, and lying about their home address. Some digital nomads will even wear sweaters to make it look like they’re braving the cold where their employer is based instead of whatever warm paradise they’re residing in, writes Callum Borchers of The Wall Street Journal. It’s a sign that knowledge workers are having a hard time letting go of their flexibility—95% want flexibility in their schedule, according to Future Forum’s survey from February 2022. Location flexibility was top of mind for just over three-fourths of respondents. But the great lengths it takes some to keep working remotely on their terms sounds like a dedicated hassle for the worker—and it’s proving to be an even bigger problem for the employer. While companies were more lax about their employees working under the palm trees of Tulum or the increasingly crowded coves in Greece during the early days of the pandemic, the reality of being subjected to legal liabilities, cybersecurity concerns, and taxes and fees if an employee is located in a state or country where the business isn’t registered properly is becoming more real. “The COVID free pass is running out,” Chantel Rowe, vice president of product management at Topia, told Bloomberg. “Companies are saying: ‘We’ve got big problems to deal with, without having tax and immigration authorities cracking down on us.’” Tattling tax return forms are revealing employees’ secrets. Alex Atwood, CEO at Virginia-based recruiting app GravyWork, told Borchers one of his stealth workers who had worked in Texas and California, unbeknownst to him, cost him up to $30,000 in taxes and fees since GravyWork wasn’t registered as a business in those states. He estimated it cost him more like $500,000 between that and lost productivity from dealing with it all. And one worker told Borchers that a remote job they applied for had its limitations: They could spend no more than three months working internationally. It’s all proving that when it comes to remote work, there’s a difference between working from home and working from anywhere. Because companies are subject to different taxes and compensation insurance depending on the state—or country—a remote job doesn’t necessarily mean you can work from a separate corner of the world. While the battle between bosses and workers is often centered on the return to office, stealth workers show that there is a smaller war raging on what remote work actually means." MY COMMENT Companies need to clamp down on this remote work insanity. There is no way it is more productive than in-house workers. In the end it is going to turn out to be a business killer for the companies. It is also going to end up being a job killer for the employees. Why do I need employees that are Americans.....when I can hire two or three foreign workers for the same price.....with no obligations for social security, benefits, or health insurance. I can probably get more work out of two or three foreign workers......compared to a distracted worker trying to work from home. The BIG ISSUE.......as usual......company training, culture, mentoring, development of future managers and leaders, etc, etc, etc.
For those under 40 that think the current little bear market is.......so hard. Well.....as a 50+ year investor I would rank this bear as about average and nowhere near the worst that investors had to navigate. My lifetime as a fully invested long term investor has included some real economic disasters. BUT......in the end if you stick with it for a lifetime......and.....save and add to your account regularly.....you will end up......relatively RICH. At least compared to most people you know. 'It was tough, scary times': Baby boomer financial experts who survived the Great Inflation recount ways to ride out a recession https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-down-frugal-baby-boomer-130000334.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "It was a time of big hair, shoulder pads and the Cold War. But something often less thought of when feeling nostalgic about the ’80s, was the interest rates that were high enough to make you dizzy. “The interest rates started the decade around 20%,” says Brad Lyons, a certified financial planner and an investment manager at Wiser Wealth Management based in Georgia. “They had [raised] them dramatically in the late ’70s … trying to deal with inflation.” Lyons was in his early 20s at the start of the 1980s. And though today’s interest rates still look small in comparison, there’s a lot that can be learned from people who’ve been through it. Consumer prices are 7.7% higher than they were a year ago, according to August’s inflation numbers. That’s down from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. Still, rates like these haven’t been seen in decades. And people who remember the ridiculously high interest rates that followed the high inflation of the ’70s say buckle down and be prudent, because we’re in for a long haul. The Great Inflation of the 1970s and 80s Experts have drawn parallels between the high inflation of five decades ago and what’s happening today. Back then, there were several factors that played into it, low unemployment, the removal of the gold standard (the monetary system in which a currency is backed by gold), but energy prices pushed things to their limit. In 1973, the price of oil nearly quadrupled when members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) enforced an oil embargo on the U.S. and other countries that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War. There was a series of knock-on effects that caused inflation and stagnation to swell. Then, the Iranian Revolution at the end of the decade sent oil prices surging again. By 1980, inflation was at 14.5% and unemployment hit 7%. The Federal Reserve hiked its federal funds rate to a whopping 17% (for comparison, it’s currently at 3.75% to 4%). The high interest rate made getting ahead almost impossible, says Mike Drak, who was a banker at the time. He remembers his mortgage rate was 17.5% at the time. “Rates were going up, it was almost monthly, they were increasing,” Drak says. “So it seemed like it was something that that didn't seem like it was ever going to stop. And I remember saying at one point, ‘If I could ever find one day where I could find a mortgage rate for 10%, I'd be the happiest person in the world.’” Drak is the author of Victory Lap Retirement and Retirement Heaven or Hell: Which Will You Choose and a senior contributor at Booming Encore, a finance blog focused on the baby boomer generation. Pay down debt Debt at that time rose quickly, says Drak — on houses, on credit cards and on vehicles. “It was tough, scary times. But we were lucky because we could work. So our wages kept increasing — not at the same pace — but it necessitated both people working to help pay down debt.” One of the most important things you can do during times of high interest is pay down debt, he says. His goal at the time was to pay down his mortgage, which wasn’t easy. “You have to have a lot of discipline, you'd have to say I want to make lump sum additions annually on it, because the interest rate was crushing and I didn't want to be trapped.” Brad Lyons suggests people stay away from credit card debt especially. “Pay off debt as much as [you] can, to the extent that [you’re] able to do so,” he said. Paying down debt, especially now, might sound daunting, but there are a couple different tactics you can use, like the avalanche method and the snowball method. Stay invested As tempting as it is to take out money from your investment accounts, especially as you watch numbers take a dive, Lyons cautions not to give in to that temptation. “During periods where you have decreased valuations in the stock markets, nobody likes to see their valuations in their accounts go down, their retirement plan accounts that they have become accustomed to seeing going up and up and up year after year after year,” Lyons says. “And now they're seeing it go down some, but it's going to come back over time.” For younger generations, he says, this is an opportunity to invest at a lower price, if you can afford it. “What we're suggesting is that people remain invested, maintain their asset allocation that was designed in order to achieve their goals and objectives in the timeframes that they have set for themselves and continue to add to their investment portfolio through their retirement account savings.” Dollar cost averaging is one of the most trusted strategies. It’s investing the same amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of what the market is doing. "By taking advantage of lower valuations you’re effectively buying more shares at a lower price,” says Lyons. Save your pennies Although it can be hard when every trip to the grocery store is costing you more, and the price of everything is going up, both Drak and Lyons say saving is hugely important, and it can also be advantageous. “As interest rates continue to rise, we will begin to see interest rates higher in our savings accounts, and newly issued fixed income securities,” says Lyons. If you stick your money in a high yield savings account, it’s going to grow faster than it would have even just at the beginning of this year. And although that probably won’t keep pace with current inflation, it helps to build a safety net. Get settled in for the long haul The 1980s was a long decade. There were two recessions and it was years before inflation was under control and interest rates began to drop. And although our current situation is a little different, if there’s anything to be learned from the past, it’s that inflation and higher interest rates will be here for a while yet. “Bear down,” Drak tells younger generations going through a similar financial landscape. “Try to work as hard as [you] can and make as much money as [you] can, and be as frugal as [you] can. That's the key. And there's no way around it. You have to be prudent. You have to pull back and you have to watch your pennies.”' MY COMMENT A usual the key is the simple things. Avoid debt. Try to pay down debt. Save for investing where you can. Invest as much as you can during this time period. Be realistic and focus on long term investment vehicles like ICONIC stocks and funds. The pay-off will come....quicker than you think when you consider a long lifetime of being an investor. As I say.....this is a GOLDEN ERA for young investors....take advantage of these prices in the markets.
While I have been blabbering on here....the markets are STILL nicely UP for the day. Even the NASDAQ has improved some....to a little stronger gain. COME ON......we want a thanksgiving rally.
In regard to China...yet here we are. The continuation of their "zero covid policy" is obviously going to always be an issue for US companies. They have some very strict rules and enforcement about it. They ease up some and the next day or two are locking down large populations and manufacturing. The cheap labor is just too enticing for most US companies. I agree, we should look for alternatives so that we are not so "tied" to their whims.
Speaking of Thanksgiving......HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE. Most people hanging out on this board have a lot to be THANKFUL for. I know I do when I look back on my life. We started out in a little HUD foreclosure house on the wrong side of the tracks, on food stamps, with an income of $300 a month while I was finishing up school. We were lucky to have family that we could count on for back-up.....even though we were determined to make it on our own. We saved, invested, raised kids, and worked hard. We were lucky that most of our schooling was paid for by parents that valued education for their kids. We were given values of hard work, saving, investing, and striving for the future....by our parents. We have passed those things on to the next generation.....our kids.....and they are doing very well in life as a result. We made much of our own...."LUCK"........but along the way there were many times when it was simply "luck" or "chance" when I look back......that made the difference. But at least we had a plan.......and......put ourselves in position to succeed and be successful in life. WE HAVE MUCH TO BE THANKFUL FOR........this year........our 73rd Thanksgiving. Wishing everyone on here a great Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Holiday season.
This is a very....good news story....today. Best Buy shares soar as retailer sticks with its holiday-quarter outlook https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/22/best-buy-bby-earnings-q3-2023.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Best Buy reported quarterly results that topped Wall Street’s expectations. The retailer stuck to its holiday-quarter outlook as electronics demand held up. Comparable sales fell by less than Best Buy’s own projections. Best Buy on Tuesday surpassed Wall Street’s expectations for quarterly earnings, as inflation-dented demand for pricey consumer electronics came in better than feared. The consumer electronics retailer, which had cut its forecast this summer, reiterated its outlook for the holiday quarter. It raised its full-year forecast to reflect the beat, saying it expects comparable sales to decline about 10%. Shares of the company rose more than 11% on Tuesday. The stock is trading around $78 after hitting a 52-week low of $60.78 in October. Here’s how the retailer did for the three-month period ended Oct. 29compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, according to a survey of analysts by Refinitiv: Earnings per share: $1.38 adjusted vs. $1.03 expected Revenue: $10.59 billion vs. $10.31 billion expected While Best Buy’s quarterly results were better than expected, demand is down from the heights of the pandemic, when consumers turned to its stores for home theaters, computer monitors, kitchen appliances and more while working, playing and cooking at home. Net sales for the fiscal third quarter declined by about 11% from $11.91 billion year over year in the third quarter. Net income fell to $277 million, or $1.22 per share, from $499 million, or $2 per share, a year earlier. On a call with investors, CEO Corie Barry said sales declined across most of Best Buy’s product categories — with the largest decrease in computing and home theater. However, she said, compared to the same quarter in 2019, its computing revenue is 23% higher and its appliances revenue remains 37% higher. Even as consumers paid more for groceries, gas and housing, she said the retailer “saw relatively consistent behavior from our purchasing customers.” But she added shoppers have a lot of interest in sales events. “Across consumers we can also see that savings are being drawn down and credit usage is going up,” Barry said on the investor call. “And value clearly matters to everyone.” Best Buy is staring down a more uncertain sales environment this holiday season. Some inflation-pinched consumers are pulling back on discretionary items and spending more money on necessities and experiences. The company joined other retailers in slashing its outlook this summer. It said at the time that it expects same-store sales to drop by about 11% for the 12-month period ending in January. A month after Best Buy warned of slower sales, it cut jobs across the country. Across consumers we can also see that savings are being drawn down and credit usage is going up. Yet, so far, the company has topped its own expectations. Comparable sales fell by 10.4%, less of a decline than the 12.9% that analysts expected, according to FactSet. The key metric, also called same-store sales, tracks sales online and at stores open at least 14 months. It was also less of a drop than the retailer anticipated. Best Buy had not given specific guidance for comparable sales in the third-quarter, but its Chief Financial Officer Matt Bilunas had cautioned it would drop more than the 12.1% decline in the second quarter. The company said it has resumed share buybacks, which it paused when it took down its forecast in July. Best Buy said it plans to spend about $1 billion on share buybacks this year. Best Buy, however, is still seeing inflation change shopping patterns. On a call with reporters, Barry said some lower-income consumers have opted for less-expensive TVs. On the other hand, she said, some wealthier consumers are picking premium products and trading up to laptops with more features when replacing them. As the level of promotions picks up, CEO Barry said the company is tightly controlling its inventory, which was down 14.7% year over year. The retailer anticipated a decline in demand and lapped a year-ago period when shipments arrived both early and late because of a supply chain challenges. Inventory has been a closely watched metric in the retail industry, as many companies cope with a glut of unwanted goods and have had to mark down items, cancel orders or pack and store goods. Barry said on an investor call that holiday shopping patterns are also shifting to a more typical pre-pandemic pattern. She said the retailer expects customers to spend more during Black Friday, Cyber Monday and the two weeks leading up to Christmas. Shares of Best Buy are down about 30% so far this year, underperforming the S&P 500 Index. Shares closed on Monday at $70.83, down nearly 2%. The company’s market value is $15.95 billion.' MY COMMENT I dont own this company and never have. BUT....this story has much good news for the consumer economy and the Holiday shopping season that is so important to retail business. I suspect that we will be in for.....a very good season for retail......better than predicted. This year is a very good opportunity for retail companies that are smart and well run. Managing sales and promotions will be a big part of the game this year. the current environment is the perfect time to see what companies in the retail area are well run and have great management.....and....which ones dont.
Here is a feel good story......at least as to how to succeed in business. My focus in Business Grad School.....was on marketing. At that time it was all about what was called......."Marketing Concept". The key was service, service, service. How to differentiate your business from all others through providing service to your customers. this story is a good example of that concept on a micro-level.....one restaurant. A $2 hot dog changed this Michelin-starred restaurateur’s entire approach to business https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/22/wil...unreasonable-hospitality-can-help-career.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The hospitality secret that turned an everyday brasserie into one of the world’s top restaurants started with a $2 hot dog. That’s according to restaurateur Will Guidara, who discussed his “unreasonable hospitality” strategy in a TED Talk last month. It’s an undemanding way of elevating ordinary experiences, Guidara said — and you can incorporate the techniques into any kind of career or job. For nearly a decade, Guidara co-owned and operated Eleven Madison Park in New York City, a Michelin-starred restaurant with multi-course tasting menus and servers decked out in suits and ties. Not exactly the kind of place you’d expect a food cart hot dog to make a cameo. But during a particularly busy lunch rush in 2010, Guidara overheard a table of food-obsessed vacationers lamenting the fact that despite going to all of the city’s finest restaurants, they hadn’t had time to get a regular New York hot dog. “You know those moments in a cartoon where the animated light bulb goes off over the character’s head, signifying they’re about to come up with a really good idea? If you’d been in the room with me that day, you would have seen one appear over mine,” Guidara said. He dashed outside to a nearby cart to buy a hot dog, convinced a chef accustomed to preparing four-star meals to serve it and delivered a $2 hot dog with Michelin-level garnishes to a table of unsuspecting tourists. “No one had ever reacted to anything I served them better than they reacted to that hot dog,” Guidara said. “Each person said it was not only the highlight of their meal, but of their entire trip to New York, and they’d be telling the story for the rest of their lives.” It worked so well that Guidara eventually added a new position responsible for those kinds of ideas, from turning the restaurant’s champagne cart into a Budweiser cart — after a guest mentioned that his dad liked Budweiser more than champagne — to creating a replica of a beach in a couple’s private dining room, after their tropical vacation flight was canceled. “I wasn’t actually in the business of serving people dinner,” Guidara said. “I was in the business of serving them memories.” That’s the takeaway: Nearly every industry is a service industry to some extent, and anyone can find small ways to create memorable experiences for their clients, customers or coworkers, Guidara said. To that end, he offered three pieces of advice for incorporating unreasonable hospitality into your own life or business. First: Stay present. “So often, we have such long to-do lists that we aren’t able to slow down enough to actually listen to the people around us, to the things they’re saying and all the things they’re not saying,” Guidara said, adding that he never would’ve heard the hot dog comment if he wasn’t paying attention. Next, create room for playfulness. Getting a $2 hot dog onto a plate at a fancy restaurant took a conscious letting-go of self-imposed standards — but it made a difference for that group of diners. Finally, Guidara said incorporating his model of unreasonable hospitality took “the acknowledgment that if what you’re trying to do is give people a sense of genuine belonging, one size fits one.” In other words, a bottle of champagne would have been nice, but nothing could match the exact hot dog those guests craved. “If you start to look closely enough, you will find opportunities for unreasonable hospitality, to give people more than they could ever possibly expect, all around you,” Guidara said." MY COMMENT WELL DONE. The mark of a great business from a single store to a huge corporation is GREAT MANAGEMENT. Involved and awake management......to the needs of their customers. EVERY.....business is a service business.
