The Long Term Investor

At least we stemmed the big losses today. I will take that as a VICTORY.

I had a small loss overall today. AND....I got beat by the SP500. BUT.....I had six of ten stocks UP for the day.....I will take that as another victory. My GREEN stocks were.......NVDA, HD, HON, AMZN, NKE, and good old COST.

LETS BUILD ON TODAY TOMORROW.

 

DUH.......you think?

You need to properly segregate customer funds': SEC Chair Gensler suggests FTX may have violated securities laws

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sec-...-have-violated-securities-laws-211154986.html

In my opinion.......total FRAUD. AMAZING that we are not seeing calls to immediately prosecute and extradite the total empty suit CEO. As I said before.......we had some of the biggest names in finance and venture capital backing this IDIOT. they were either totally incompetent themselves.......or.......they knew the company was a scam and went along for the ride anyway.

Elon Musk Says FTX's Bankman-Fried Should Be in Jail

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...in-jail-says-elon-musk?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

 

Over the past three days I am seeing all kinds of sensationalist and FEAR MONGERING statements about the coming crash in 2023.

First.........I find it more than random chance that these statements are all happening at the same time. Second........I dont believe any of them.

 

The day in hind-sight.

S&P 500 notches fifth day of losses as traders consider recession odds, yields fall

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The S&P 500 fell for a fifth day as traders weighed the possibility of a recession, and the likelihood of a longer-than-expected hiking cycle from the Federal Reserve.

The S&P slipped 0.19% to end the session at 3,933.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain of 1.58 points, roughly flat, to finish the session at 33,597.92. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.51% to end at 10,958.55.

Bond yields also fell, with the rate on the 10-year Treasury
note at one point touching a low of 3.402%.

Stocks wavered between gains and losses in choppy trading, with the S&P rising as much as 0.41%. At its lows, the benchmark index fell 0.47%.

“The market’s kind of bobbing and weaving and finding its breath after the big rally off the October lows,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group. He expects markets to continue this trend until investors receive more clarity from the Fed’s December policy meeting and November’s consumer price index report.

Next week, the central bank is widely expected to deliver a 50 basis point rate hike. While the move would be a smaller one compared to the previous four rate hikes, concerns are swirling over whether the Fed can engineer a so-called soft landing while successfully tamping down inflation.

Worries about a recession in 2023 have spooked some investors in recent days.

“All told, financial indicators point to a recession on the horizon,” wrote Wells Fargo’s Azhar Iqbal in a note to clients Wednesday. “The S&P 500 has peaked ahead of recessions with an average lead time of four months over the past few business cycles.

Investors await more economic data this week for clues on what to expect from the Fed, with jobless claims data due out Thursday. November’s producer price index and preliminary consumer sentiment data for December are slated for Friday.

Stocks are on pace for weekly losses, with the Dow down 2.42%. The S&P and Nasdaq are off by 3.38% and 4.39%, respectively."

MY COMMENT

AMAZINGLY.....everyone is now concerned about a recession......when the same people were refusing to admit that we were in a recession a few months ago when we had two quarters in a row of negative GDP.




2 Hours Ago
Stocks close mostly lower
Stocks closed mostly lower Wednesday, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.19% to close at 3,933.92.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed flat, or 1.58 points higher, to finish the session at 33,597.92. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.51% to end at 10,958.55.

 

I was siting here starting to scan and read for the day when I heard a guest on Varney talking. He totally mirrors my views. I dont even know who he is but here is a summary of his comments.

1. Things are going to be green again.

2. Over the long term stocks are usually up two out of every three days.

3. We have been down 9 of the last ten days. There is no logical reason and we are due for a rally.

4. Right now we are seeing a crescendo of negativity.

5. This negativity is ridiculous since it is happening against a backdrop of full employment, the most people working ever making the highest amount of money ever, spending the most amount of money ever.

6. the items in #5 are a totally powerful narrative but we are all caught up in the yield curve, and minute economic data that is really meaningless, there might be a recession, etc, etc.

7. Come on get out of the WEEDS. We need to get back to basics and what is obvious.

8. The FED told us they are pivoting...not by cutting rates but by slowing and stopping the increases....this is very positive for the future in 2023 and the rate increases are likely to end soon.

9. The market is bottoming.....but there is always a lag.

10. I am fully invested and am buying the large, quality stocks, all the big tech stocks that are growing 20-25% growing at only 12 to 18 times earnings. That is crazy.

11. We are on the cusp of a turn and over the long haul the market direction in the SP500 about 70% of the time is UP. We are being FAR TOO NEGATIVE.

MY COMMENT

I TOTALLY agree with everything above and the pages of this little thread reflect the same sentiments over and over and over. The short term negativity that is a TSUNAMI right now is simply.....CRAZY.

 

We opened today with some positive momentum and feeling to the markets. BUT....I would not get too carried away. It would be nice to have a positive day but it is STILL the same old market that we have been experiencing all year. The markets are OBSESSIVELY NEGATIVE.

I do believe that this sentiment is NOT justified and could turn on a dime.....but I am not going to try to bet on when it might happen. That is why I simply stay fully invested all the time for the long term. Of course.....I am in a position to do that since I don not rely on my stock market money for living or retirement.

One thing is sure......regardless of the markets......the greatest businesses in the world are STILL on sale.

 

Here is how we open today.

Stocks rise after five days of losses for S&P 500

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-8-2022-121704747.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks rose Thursday morning as investors attempted to stymie this week's losing streak across equity markets from stretching into another day as rate jitters and recession chatter hamper a seasonally bullish period for Wall Street.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed 0.4% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) bounced 130 points, or also about 0.4%. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) advanced by the same margin.

Renewed concerns over a sustained span of higher interest rates ahead and the prospect of an economic downturn have led to a downbeat start to December, a historically positive month for stocks.

The benchmark S&P 500 registered its fifth consecutive losing day in Wednesday’s trade, bringing losses for the blue-chip index to 3.6% in the first seven days of the month so far. A 4.4% loss for the Nasdaq over the same time, meanwhile, marks its worst first week of December since 1975, per data from Bespoke Investment Group.

In other markets, U.S. Treasuries held steady after the 10-year yield slid below 3.5% to a nearly three-month low. Oil rose after the commodity plunged more than 10% this week to trade near year-ago levels. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed nearly 3%. The rise comes after the Keystone oil pipeline system was shut down a leak into a creek in the Midwest.

Meanwhile, filings for unemployment insurance rose slightly last week. Initial jobless claims, the most timely snapshot of the labor market, came in at 230,000 for the week ended Dec. 3, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level, Labor Department figures showed Thursday.

On the corporate side, GameStope (GME) shares rose 3%, even as the meme stock favorite reported worse-than-expected quarterly earnings.

Shares of Rent the Runway (RENT) surged 20% after the company raised its full-year revenue forecast and reported results that beat Wall Street estimates. CEO Jennifer Hyman also said the company’s restructuring plan was "substantially complete" and will focus on "substantially improving cash burn" in the future.

Another round of earnings is on the docket for traders after the bell Tuesday, with headliners including Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST), Lululemon (LULU), and DocuSign (DOCU) on deck to report. Costco is Yahoo Finance’s Company of the Year.

Investors are nearing the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated last rate-setting meeting of 2022 next week. U.S. central bank officials are scheduled to convene Dec. 13-14 and expected to lift their benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points.

While the Fed’s next policy move is largely priced in, uncertainty remains around how high the key policy rate will need to go, how long the U.S. economy will weather a higher interest rate environment, and whether it may trigger a recession. Wall Street’s big banks, along with traders, are pricing in a pause at around 5%, but some have warned rates can go higher if economic and labor market momentum keeps at the current pace.

“We do not yet think the Federal Open Markets Committee is ready to signal the end of rate hikes is coming soon, but mathematically with the dot plot in hand, the December step toward ‘sufficiently restrictive’ will put them just 75 bps away from the Summary of Economic Projections’ (SEP) median terminal rate,” UBS economist Jonathan Pingle said in a recent note. “The Chair seems likely to remind everyone that the SEP is not a commitment, and depends on how the economy and data unfold.”

More price data is due out ahead of the meeting and will offer traders – and Fed officials – a snapshot of where inflation is trending. The Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, is set for release on Friday, while the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due out on Tuesday, day one of the Fed meeting."

MY COMMENT

I have never seen the level of.....asinine......focus and obsession with obscure data and economics that I see in the markets right now. Most of this stuff has NOTHING to do with specific businesses and earnings. It reflects a total misunderstanding of how to invest and what is important as an investor.

The key to investing......as always.....is the fundamental business results of the companies that you own. Unfortunately we are NOW in an era of financial media obsession with economic data. We are also in an era of many....probably the majority of investors....thinking that this is what is important as a stock investor. they are both simply.....WRONG.

 

A HUGE lesson in who NOT to listen to as an investor and the actual ridiculous social media and celebrity culture that has taken over much of the investing space. Welcome to the modern world.

FTX spokesman Kevin O’Leary says he lost his $15 million payday from crypto firm

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/08/ftx...ry-says-he-lost-15-million-crypto-payday.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• CNBC contributor Kevin O’Leary told “Squawk Box” anchors that he’d lost all of his FTX crypto payday, valued at just under $15 million.
• Calling the FTX deal a “bad investment,” O’Leary said he fell prey to “groupthink.”
• O’Leary and other celebrities, such as Tom Brady and Larry David, were sued by FTX investors who say the exchange’s ambassadors should have done more due diligence.

Investor, “Shark Tank” judge and CNBC contributor Kevin O’Leary said Thursday he’s lost all of the $15 million FTX paid him to act as a paid spokesman for the now collapsed crypto exchange that some have called fraudulent.

O’Leary and other celebrities, such as Tom Brady and Larry David, were sued by FTX investors who say the exchange’s ambassadors should have done more due diligence and exercised a greater level of care before promoting the crypto empire.

The Canadian investor was grilled by CNBC’s “Squawk Box″ hosts over his failure to properly assess the risks associated with investing and promoting FTX. O’Leary said he fell prey to “groupthink,” and that none of his investment partners had lost money.

“Total deal was just under $15 million, all in,” O’Leary said Thursday morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “I put about $9.7 million into crypto. I think that’s what I lost. I don’t know. It’s all at zero.”

O’Leary also said he had over $1 million of FTX equity, now rendered worthless by the bankruptcy protection process. The balance of a little over $4 million was purportedly eaten up by taxation and agent fees, according to O’Leary.

O’Leary promoted FTX aggressively on Twitter and online, touting his close connection with disgraced founder Sam Bankman-Fried, who is facing multiple investigations.

When O’Leary first began to promote FTX, he said it was FTX’s compliance systems that drew him to invest in the crypto exchange.

“Finally solved my compliance problems with #cryptocurrencies,” O’Leary wrote on LinkedIn and in a since-deleted August 2021 tweet.

Eventually, Delaware bankruptcy protection filings by new FTX CEO John Ray would term FTX’s risk, audit and compliance procedures “a complete failure of corporate controls.”

“It was not a good investment,” O’Leary said Thursday."

MY COMMENT

That statement........“It was not a good investment".....has got to be the understatement of the decade.

 

HERE is another good indicator of the supply/demand issues lessening and the economy moving back to a more normal supply/demand situation as we move on from the Covid caused economic shutdown. The economic distortions are going away.

Used vehicle demand and prices continue to decline from record highs

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/use...es-continue-to-decline-from-record-highs.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Wholesale prices of used vehicles reached their lowest level in more than a year last month, as retail sales decline amid interest rate hikes, rising new vehicle availability and recessionary fears.
• The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions, has declined about 16% from record levels in January.
• The decline is good news for potential car buyers, however not great for companies such as Carvana that purchased vehicles at record highs and are now trying to sell them at a profit."

"DETROIT – Wholesale prices of used vehicles reached their lowest level in more than a year last month, as retail sales decline amid interest rate hikes, rising new vehicle availability and recessionary fears.

Cox Automotive said Wednesday that its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions, has declined 15.6% from record levels in January through November. The index dropped to 199.4 last month, below 200 for the first time since August 2021, and is down 14.2% from the same month a year ago. It marks the sixth-consecutive month of declines.

The falling prices come as the availability of new vehicles steadily rises from historic lows, providing additional options for consumers and potentially better loan options from automaker’s financing arms.

“New inventory is finally starting to build, and that’s producing momentum in new retail sales, but that momentum appears to be at the expense of used retail. Especially it’s the traditional used car buyer that’s most impacted by payment affordability,” Cox chief economist Jonathan Smoke said Tuesday during an industry update.

Retail prices for consumers traditionally follow changes in wholesale prices. That’s good news for potential car buyers, however not great for companies such as embattled retailer Carvana
that purchased vehicles at record highs and are now trying to sell them at a profit.

Retail pricing thus far has not declined as quickly as wholesale prices, as dealers attempt to hold steady on record-high pricing. According to the most recent data, Cox reports the average listing price of a used vehicle was $27,564 in October, down less than a half percent from the beginning of the year.

“They’re not wanting to sell at trough prices,” said Chris Frey, senior industry insights manager at Cox Automotive, told CNBC last month. “That’s why we’re not seeing the prices decline so much at retail.”

Cox estimates that used retail sales declined 1% in November from October and were down 10% from a year earlier.

Automakers for several years now have been battling through a semiconductor chip shortage that has sporadically halted production of new vehicles, causing record-low inventories of vehicles and higher prices. The circumstances pushed many new-vehicle buyers into the used-car market.

Cox last month estimated the total used market was on pace to finish the year down more than 12% from 40.6 million in 2021."

MY COMMENT

It is taking a lot longer than nearly anyone expected. BUT....the economy is FINALLY starting to normalize and recover from the Covid shut-down. Supply chains and supply/demand are just starting to normalize. We are probably about 12-18 months away from......fr the most part.....being back to normal. Lets hope this is a......lesson learned.....next time anyone raises the issue of shutting down the economy.

 

Is this the start of the SANTA RALLY?

The markets are nicely UP today. I am looking at next week with the FED meeting as being a positive event. We are going to see a lesser rate increase of 0.50%.......confirmed by the FED. We are also going to probably see them indicate that future rate increases will continue to lessen from the 0.75% level we have been dealing with for the past months.

They are going to hold rates high for a good length of time......probably for at the minimum the entire year 2023. BUT.....we are within months.......2-6 months.....of the rate increases ending.

As to a recession......I continue to believe that we have already seen in....in year 2022.

 

HAVE STRENGTH and COURAGE. ENDURE. One negative year is not a lifetime or the long term.

We are on the way to a negative week......but.....the SP500 is ONLY down by 16.75% year to date. NOT a shocking number.....rather a relatively normal down year.

At this point anyone that has held through the downturn is seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. In fact.....at this moment I am expecting 2023 to be a POSITIVE year for stocks and stock investors. Not a hard prediction.....since the markets are positive in any one year about 70% of the time.....so I am simply going with the PROBABILITIES.

 

HERE is the first thing I see on the Costco earnings today.

Costco Stock Slides After Q1 Earnings Miss, Weakening Autumn Sales

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/costco-stock-slides-after-q1-earnings-miss-weakening-autumn-sales

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Costco Wholesale (COST) - Get Free Report posted weaker-than-expected first quarter earnings Thursday as membership revenues missed Street forecasts amid a pullback in sales over the final weeks of autumn.

Costco said diluted earnings for the three months ending on xxx, the company's fiscal first quarter, came in a $3.09 per share, up 3% from the same period last year but 2 cents shy of the Street consensus forecast

Group revenues, Costco said, rose 8.1% to $54.437 billion, just shy of analysts' forecasts of a $54.64 billion tally. Membership revenues rose 5.7% to $1 billion.

Adjusted same-store sales were up 7.1% from last year, Costco said, around 230 basis points ahead of the Street forecast, while e-commerce sales were down 3.7%.

Costco shares, which slipped 0.11% during the Thursday session, were marked 1.1% lower in after-hours trading following the earnings release to indicate a Friday opening bell price of $476.01 each.

Last week, Costco published a weaker-than-expected November sales tally of $19.17, a 5.7% increase from last year that was notably lower than the 7.7% pace recorded over the month of October and the 10.1% advance the group booked in September.

TGT) - Get Free Report, who told investors on November 16 that the group saw a "change in shopping behavior in the back half of October leading into November".

Cornell said consumers were "working with their budget, shopping very carefully, looking for value, and recognizing they've got to start with core staples before they spend dollars in discretionary categories."

Costco may have also suffered from the overall decline in U.S. gas prices, which have fallen more than 30% since hitting an all-time high of $5.10 per gallon earlier this summer.

The gas price surge, in part, helped U.S. same-store sales rise 15.8% over the three months ending in August, Costco reported, a move many analysts put down to its offering of cheaper gas to club members.

MY COMMENT

NOT bad earnings. Not a beat......but in my view not a miss either.......kind of a push. Earnings were up for the quarter but a few pennies shy of the estimate. Revenue was likewise up for the quarter but just shy of estimates. All in all looks good to me considering everything going on.

I will see what the more detailed data looks like when it is reported in the media.

 

A nice GREEN market day today. I was also green even though I had 4 of 10 stocks that were down today. I also ended up beating the SP500 by 0.61%. Pretty strong performance for only 6 of ten stocks being up today. My LOSERS were.....COST, HON, GOOGL, and TSLA.

Lets build from here to end the week on a good upswing tomorrow.

year to date I am basically at a LOSS of (-25%) right now.

 

Of interest to MSFT shareholders.

FTC files antitrust lawsuit to block Microsoft’s $69 billion Activision Blizzard deal

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ftc-...osoft-activision-blizzard-deal-193151181.html

 

I am getting excited.

One of my babies is coming home at the end of the year. No not a kid or a spouse.....a painting. I have a painting that is currently in a museum exhibition till the end of the year. It normally sits on the wall directly across from my desk......so I look at it every day. I have missed it for the past 5 months.

I moved another painting by the same artist to that spot in front of my desk when it left. That painting normally sits on the wall to the right of my desk......which is now a blank wall. It will be nice to have everything safely home and on the walls where they normally hang.

It has been a good art year for me this year......I had three paintings that were in exhibitions this year. A record year for me.

 

This is the little story of the day.....not really unexpected.

Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in November, more than expected, despite hopes that inflation is cooling

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/09/who...-despite-hopes-that-inflation-is-cooling.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Wholesale prices rose more than expected in November, dampening hopes that inflation could be headed lower, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The producer price index, a measure of what companies get for their products in the pipeline, increased 0.3% for the month and 7.4% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.2% gain.

Excluding food and energy, core PPI was up 0.4%, also against a 0.2% estimate.

The release comes amid other signs that price increases at least were decelerating from a pace that had put inflation at its highest level in more than 40 years. However, the data Friday, which tends to be a leading indicator of underlying price pressures, shows that shaking off inflation could be a long slog.

This was the third month in a row that headline PPI increased 0.3%. On an annual basis, the increase represents a decline from the 11.7% peak hit in March, but is still well ahead of the pre-pandemic pace at least going back to 2010."

MY COMMENT

WELL......what do you expect. The FED has little chance to be successful if they are just out there on an island by themselves.......while the rest of government continues to massively stimulate the economy.

The last time we had an inflation issue in the 1980's.......the ENTIRE government as well as the FED........were totally focused on the issue and taking the steps necessary to lower it.

NOW......the FED is being screwed monthly by the rest of the government. Student loan payment deferrals, other benefits, free cash, spending like a drunken sailor, massive deficit spending in the face of all time record tax receipts, etc, etc, etc. There is absolutely ZERO interest or help coming from government on the inflation issue. They are simply spending record breaking amounts of money and stimulating the economy to death.

AND.....outside of some investors.....no one cares. Wages are way up and people simply.....DONT CARE about inflation.

 

HERE is reality......as it has always been.

I Don’t Know. I Really Don’t.

https://allstarcharts.com/i-dont-know-i-really-dont/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Contrary to popular belief, I don’t know what the market is going to do next.

I have no way of possibly knowing if the S&P500 is going to double from here or if it’s going to get cut in half. Gold can go to $5000/oz or $5/oz. Crude Oil can go to $250/barrel or $2. I just don’t know.

We all have our ‘opinions’, sure. I mean, how can we not? We’re humans right?


But we’re making decisions with unknown information.

We all are.

It’s pretty cool. We’re all in this together.

Why do you think we love this so much?

Is there a better game in town?

I mean, is there a more difficult game in town?


This is it baby. This is the big leagues.


If you can’t handle it, then leave. You don’t have to be here.

But if you want to play with the big boys, then just understand this: YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT THE MARKET IS GOING TO DO NEXT.

If you think you do, you’ll get religion sooner or later.

In fact, we all have.

Just ask any successful investor. They’ll tell you.

I don’t give advice around here, that’s not my job. But today I’ve got some good advice for you.

Keep An Open Mind.

If you close yourself off to one single outcome in whatever market you’re invested in, you’re going to pay the price sooner or later.

And it’s not fun.

I’ve been there.

Never again though.

So that’s my advice: Keep an open mind to all possible outcomes. Not doing so is irresponsible. Not doing so is stupid. Not doing so is a great way to lose money.

I’m good with either outcome....bull or bear.... because know that I don’t know which one it will be into Q1 next year and beyond.

I have my suspicions. But so what? We have to take the data as it comes in and continually reevaluate.

Have we been incredibly fortunate to have been aggressively buying stocks the last several months?

Yea sure. It’s great.

But so what? What does that have to do with making money this month and next quarter?

Unfortunately nothing.

So here’s what I do know. Or better said, here’s what I think I’m most confident in:

Without a weaker Dollar, I would NOT expect any bull markets in stocks any time soon. I still believe that this is THE Catalyst.

And the market continues to prove this to be true.

And when I say “Bull Markets” I’m not talking about the S&P500 or Nasdaq100 above a moving average, or up 20%, or any of those other measures.

I’m specifically referring to whether or not we should be spending our time looking for stocks to buy vs spending our time looking for stocks to sell.

These stocks include names in countries outside the U.S. as well. Because although the US Stock market has outperformed for a long time, that’s not necessarily the case forever. In fact, I have a strong suspicion it won’t be the case forever.

Here’s a chart that I think encompasses a lot of this. We’re looking at the Dollar falling apart vs the Chinese Yuan.

This failed breakout in recent months has led to an explosive rally in Chinese Stocks, including many of those that trade in the United States.



The China ETF $FXI is up over 30% since the Yuan bottomed in October. Chinese Internet $KWEB is up over 60%.

These are huge moves.



Do you think it’s a coincidence that they came just as the Dollar started its collapse vs the Yuan?

Or do you think they are in sync, like I do?

And I’ll say it again. Keep an open mind. You don’t know what’s going to happen next. And neither do I."

MY COMMENT

NONE of us knows what the markets are going to do.....over the shorter term. We dont know when of why anything is going to happen.

SO.....all anyone can do is go with the PROBABILITIES. Those long term probabilities tell us that the markets will be positive about 70% of the time. But inherent in that statistic is that the markets can have long stretches up and down that average out to get to that 70% figure.

 

I am not writing off today since the markets have not opened yet. I do consider it positive that the futures are not MORE RED than they are right now. We will know more in about 6.5 hours.