DUH..... Stock futures reverse gains after surprise inflation data https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-after-surprise-inflation-data-125443672.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stock futures were lower early Friday as markets failed to maintain momentum gained after the S&P 500 snapped a 5-day losing streak on Thursday. Data on producer prices out Friday morning sent markets lower, with this hotter-than-expected inflation data coming ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Ahead of the opening bell, S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq futures were all off about 0.4%. Earlier Friday morning, stock futures had been pointing to gains at the open. The November read on producer prices came in hotter than expected early Friday, with prices rising 0.3% over the prior month on a headline basis and 0.4% on a "core" basis, which excludes food and energy. Economists had expected increases of 0.2% for each reading, respectively. After the October read on consumer prices showed some inflation pressures easing, Friday's data shows input prices remain on the rise and suggest inflation may remain firmer in the coming months than investors had previously believed. The next read on consumer prices is due out Tuesday morning. Elsewhere on the economic data calendar, investors will be closely watching the University of Michigan's initial look at consumer sentiment in December, which is set for release at 10:00 a.m. ET. Oil prices also continue to be a focus for investors, with the price of gasoline in the U.S. hitting a new low for the year on Thursday as crude oil reverses the modest rally seen late last week. Near 7:50 a.m. ET, WTI crude oil was trading near $72.15 a barrel, up about 1%. The dollar, seen as the key to the market's rally during the fall, was broadly weaker against most currency pairs early Friday. Stocks making big moves ahead of Friday's open include lululemon (LULU), with shares of the athletic apparel retailer down over 6% after the company offered guidance for the current quarter that came in below estimates. Still, the company said full-year sales would be ahead of its prior forecast. Shares of Docusign (DOCU) were up over 11% early Friday after the company reported late Thursday results that were better than expected. Docusign was one of the biggest winners during the pandemic-induced market rally; shares were down more than 70% so far this year before Thursday's quarterly results." MY COMMENT Not real shocking.......considering that we have now stimulated ourselves into a very nasty WAGE SPIRAL. This was the core issue back in the late 1970's and early 1980's......a very nasty wage/price spiral. Of course......the little bit of inflation we are living though now is NOTHING compared to what we went through back in the old days of the 1970's and 1980's. I am simply looking forward to the end of 2022.
All you can do in the face of an extended market decline is invest as much money as you can while it is happening. We have now been in a nasty bear market for......ONE YEAR. It is "likely" that this bear market will continue for another 12-24 months if not longer....depending on the actions of government. Anyone that is not a baby boomer facing retirement should STILL view what is going on right now as a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY to lock in low cost investments. The pay-off is down the road.....but when it comes....the compounding will be EXPLOSIVE. I will be following my own thinking in 2023, 2024, and beyond......by investing any free cash that I can scrape up into the stocks and funds that make up my portfolio.
I now dont see one happening this year.....but just for fun and nostalgia. Santa Claus rallies are a ‘meaningful’ trend, says financial advisor: What one could mean for investors this year https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/09/what-a-santa-claus-rally-means-for-investors.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points U.S. stocks often rise around the holidays, a trend known as the “Santa Claus rally.” The period encompasses seven trading days: the last five days of the year and first two of the new year. The S&P 500 Index was up an average 1.3% a year over those seven days every year since 1950, and was positive the entire year in 79% of those years, according to one estimate. The reason isn’t exactly clear. If history is a guide, stock investors may be poised to get a gift over the holidays. U.S. stocks often gallop at year-end, delivering higher returns for investors. The trend, known as the “Santa Claus rally,” encompasses the last five trading days of the calendar year and the first two of the new year. In the past two decades, the S&P 500 Index— a barometer of U.S. stock performance — has increased by 0.7% a year, on average, over those seven trading days, according to FactSet data. The S&P 500 was positive during those seven days in 15 of the 20 years — or 75% of the time, FactSet found. The trend holds when looking further back, too. During that particular seven-day trading period, the S&P 500 was up an average 1.3% a year dating to 1950 and was positive in 79% of those years, according to an analysis by Michael Batnick, managing partner at Ritholtz Wealth Management. By comparison, S&P 500 returns were a much smaller 0.24% during all other seven-day trading periods dating to 1950, Batnick said. Stocks were positive 58% of the time over those periods. “That is meaningful,” Batnick said of the difference in returns and positivity rate. December tends to be among the strongest months of the year for U.S. stock performance. Since 1926, only returns in July and April have outpaced December’s average — about 1.9% and 1.7% versus 1.6%, respectively, according to data from Morningstar Direct. It’s not entirely clear why stocks typically rally in December and into January. Possible contributors include optimism about the coming year, holiday spending, stock traders on vacation and institutions squaring their books — even the holiday spirit. “When you think of a Santa Claus rally, it’s all about anticipating or looking forward,” said Terry DuFrene, global investment specialist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank in New Orleans. “Now you have a chance to hit the reset button.” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, told CNBC that Santa Claus rallies are “particularly predictable and strong” during midterm election years, which often provide a tailwind to the stock market — and it generally doesn’t matter which party takes control of the House or Senate. “Midterm elections, no matter what, have a tendency to be very bullish, and the Santa Claus rally continues through the next three, six, 12 months,” he said. Markets will have a Santa Claus rally thanks to midterm tailwind, says Ed Yardeni The market generally responds positively to divided government due to the relative predictability that comes with legislative gridlock. Republicans took the House and Democrats retained control of the Senate in this year’s midterm elections. Whatever the reason for the Santa Claus rally, investors can use a bit of good news. The S&P 500 is down about 17% in 2022. Bonds, typically a ballast when stocks are down, have also been in the doldrums; the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index, a barometer of U.S. bonds, is down 11% in 2022. Of course, past performance doesn’t mean it’s a given stocks will rally. The Federal Reserve is poised to continue its cycle of raising interest rates during a policy meeting next week. The central bank began raising borrowing costs aggressively in March this year to tame stubbornly high inflation. On Tuesday, Americans will get a look at whether inflation eased further in November, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issues its latest monthly consumer price index report. A larger-than-expected increase in interest rates or signs that inflation was hotter than anticipated could fuel stock-market jitters toward year-end." MY COMMENT SORRY.......I dont see any significant rally happening this year over the last few weeks of the year. So far this year......NONE.....of the traditional positive market indicators.....have made any difference. Gridlock for example. Sentiment is strongly negative and that is all that matters. BUT.......this is not all DOOM & GLOOM. It is simply what happens over the short term........so: I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
Well we are now open. Stocks are down but not much considering the inflation news. The markets and investors are being worn down to where they simply.....DONT CARE ANYMORE. I consider that a good thing.
As has been mentioned, inflation proves to be very sticky and difficult to dislodge. Especially after just sitting around ignoring all of the signs early on. We are going to be stuck with it for a good while I suspect. And the infusion of money continues even if not at the record levels we once seen. For example, this year I believe there were roughly around 23 states that sent out "inflation stimulus checks." The government also just authorized a 36 billion pension bail out to Central State Pension Fund. There is also still left over stimulus money from the pandemic according to the Fed Reserve: households in the lower half of income distribution were still holding about $350 billion in excess savings as of mid-2022—mostly stemming from the boost to income induced by fiscal stimulus in 2020 and 2021. Households in the top half of income distribution hold the vast majority of excess savings, at about $1.35 trillion as of mid-2022.
I am also looking forward to the end of the year. Maybe we all are at this point. We will probably still have the same issues as now, but there is just something about the closing of one year and beginning a new one that gives us some hope and new energy. I always do a good annual review of my portfolio and long term plans/goals at the end of December or during this last month. As mentioned way upthread during this last five years my plan had been to slowly and methodically reduce any individual holdings I had. It has worked out on schedule and actually a few months earlier. My plan was to do this as I approached the final stretch coming into retirement, and I wanted to give myself a fairly decent runway to do so. I still have some (not many) working years left, but I wanted to simplify things in advance. I have accomplished that. At this point, actually the past few months, I have been solely an index fund investor. Yes, a boring old index investor. I am kind of used to it though, since I never really held a significant amount of individual holdings and let the percentages get too heavy. The largest percentage of my portfolio has always been mostly in index funds, so not much of a change. I will do my usual review sometime this month and be able to work on the Roth side of the plan with a new year. My plan has always been to end up as such. It is very simple for me to manage. I also considered the other side of the equation about family having to someday later come in and manage it. I wanted it to be simple for my spouse or heirs to be able to have something that would not be complex and confusing to manage. That is the great thing about having a plan. It gives you a roadmap as you go along over the years and gives you time to review and evaluate what one is doing. It also gives one the opportunity to make those decisions over a period of time and not require hasty changes on short notice.
Yeah that Teamsters Pension fund bailout is yet again......more stimulus. It is also not fair. There have been many other pensions that were in trouble or failed that were NOT bailed out.
"On Wall Street today, news of lower interest rates sent the stock market up, but then the expectation that these rates would be inflationary sent the market down, until the realization that lower rates might stimulate the sluggish economy pushed the market up, before it ultimately went down on fears that an overheated economy would lead to a reimpostition of higher interest rates." Robert Mankoff
Too bad the markets could not hang on today. Yes a red day for me......but not a large one. I also beat the SP500 by a WHIOPPING.....0.04%. Better than nothing.
No way to sugar coat this week. Just a crap week for the markets. DOW year to date (-7.88%) DOW for the week (-2.77%) SP500 year to date (-17.45%) SP500 for the week (-3.37%) NASDAQ 100 year to date (-29.09%) NASDAQ 100 for the week (-3.57%) NASDAQ year to date (-29.66%) NASDAQ for the week (-3.99%) RUSSELL year to date (-19.98%) RUSSELL for the week (-5.08%) ONWARD from here. Next week is FED week. Only 15 market days......three weeks......left in the year.
Even Wall Street has changed their work setting. The employee vs employer dynamic continues. Flexible work on Wall Street is here to stay, whether bosses like it or not (Yahoo Finance). As 2021’s dealmaking boom went bust this year, big bank chiefs flocked to nix virtual work policies and summon staff back to offices. But droves of Wall Street employees are resisting those mandates as the future of work evolves. On Wall Street as in most corporate settings, the pre-pandemic office shows few signs of roaring back. A survey of employees across the financial industry published last month — covering institutions including the likes of Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and JPMorgan — found 95% of respondents favored hybrid work, while only a handful backed a full-time office return. The study, conducted by Women in Banking and Finance and the London School of Economics, saw none of the 100 participants, however, call for fully remote setups. “Experimentation within firms is the best way to understand what is needed for operations to run smoothly while allowing for maximum productivity,” authors Dr. Grace Lordan, Dr. Jasmine Virhia, and Yolanda Blavo said. “Leaders need to let go of wanting to know what their team is doing every second of every day and focus on what they’re achieving.” The report underscores the struggle Wall Street institutions face in a post-pandemic filling their offices with staff day in and day out. Goldman Sachs Chief Executive David Solomon — among the staunchest of remote work critics in the financial industry — appeared to admit in a conference on Tuesday that even he has only managed to get employees back on site four days per week. “We needed to create a culture of bringing people back very quickly because we thought it was hurting our competitive position as a business, and so we have nudged, cajoled, and evolved, but the bottom line is we generally are operating close to the way we operated before the pandemic — certainly Monday to Thursday," Solomon said in an interview at the Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit Tuesday "Our business is a professional services human capital business where 50% of the people who work for Goldman Sachs around the world are in their twenties, and they come to Goldman Sachs to have an experience, to learn, to work in teams, and to collaborate,” Solomon said. "And if that's all fragmented, that experience breaks down, and that's a hugely important part of what Goldman Sachs is — how we serve our clients, how we operate." Solomon — who famously called remote work an "aberration" — has pushed for a full-scale office return since last year. The bank also lifted COVID mandates this fall, a move seen as removing the last remaining hurdles that might stop employees from daily office attendance. Still, insiders have told Yahoo Finance many workers kept flexible setups, with individual teams establishing their own rules. Some firms in the financial world, however, have charted less ambitions office-attendance courses than Goldman Sachs with an eye towards finding a mandate that can actually be enforced. Earlier this year, BlackRock ordered staff to be on-site three days per week, as first reported by Yahoo Finance. The world’s largest asset manager said that exceptions to its “3 + 2 model” — or three days in an office, two days out — would be “rare and require formal approval” through an official exception request. “Time together is how we deliver for clients,” BlackRock's COO, Rob Goldstein, and head of human resources, Manish Mehta, wrote in an email sent to employees in September. CEO Larry Fink said the same day in a TV interview the company would take a “harder line” on bringing people back. In a September survey, Deloitte subsidiary Casey Quirk – a consulting arm of the business that advises investment and wealth management firms – found the bulk of industry leaders have implemented a “3-days-in the office, 2-days-remote” model, even accepting that “Fridays have been lost forever.” Responses were collected from 28 of the world’s largest asset managers, per Casey Quirk, collectively managing about $48 trillion in funds. Those which maintained a “laissez-faire” office-is-open-but-optional policy saw low attendance, with few reaching the modest 50% or more level of employees coming in one day per week, according to the survey. Some participants remained hopeful the 3 and 2 model was an interim step to transitioning back to a five-day in-office work week. Overall, the asset management leaders in Casey Quirk’s study said return-to-office policies have been difficult to implement without strong language. “Interestingly our research showed that while there were some firm leaders at each extreme — those who were strident proponents of five days a week in the office, and others willing to completely rethink the traditional in-person model — most ended up in the same place for practical purposes,” the report said. "Leadership teams think that ‘3/2’ achieves a reasonably beneficial equilibrium for all parties." PGIM, the asset management division of insurance giant Prudential, is among prominent Wall Street names that has advocated for flexible work. “What we have done that is a bit different from our competitors is that we have not issued mandates,” PGIM VP and head of human resources Pamela Sinclair told Yahoo Finance in an interview. “We have allowed each business leader to decide what works for them.” The response from employees has been so positive that office attendance is near 2019 levels, Sinclair said, though emphasizing the firm does not track badge swipes to monitor who shows up, but rather for a head count on catering orders for lunch. Sinclair said PGIM has “embedded flexibility” into its workplace for the long haul. In its own survey of the broader corporate world conducted in conjunction with Morning Consult, the firm found attitudes about the new way of working vary widely. For example, 57% of workers said returning on-site has increase stress and that stress could be alleviated by employer flexibility about worksite attendance. On the other hand, 47% of employees reported concerns about career advancement opportunities in a remote or hybrid work environment, and 47% feared it would be harder to learn new skills. At the manager level, 44% said navigating remote work policies has burned them out, and the same share were concerned about falling behind in their own career development. Overall, 78% of workers still believed hybrid work models that balance remote and in-person work will be a mainstay over the next 10 years. “I don’t think you can ask people to work from home for two years and then suddenly say you can’t do that again,” Sinclair told Yahoo Finance. “I think the paradigm has shifted quite significantly.”
FED WEEK.......yeah. We can now get another rate increase out of the way. I would say it will be 0.50%. another step toward the day some time over the next 2-8 months when we will be done with the rate increases. At that point we will go into a holding pattern till the FED with sees inflation down or gives up. Inflation data, Fed meeting will set the table for 2023: What to know this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-...flation-what-to-know-this-week-172438967.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "A highly-anticipated inflation reading and the Federal Reserve’s last policy decision of the year will serve as highlights during what should be the final week of major economic news in 2022. On Tuesday, the closely-watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November may foretell how much higher rates could go in the coming year. And on Wednesday afternoon, the Fed's latest monetary policy decision will almost certainly deliver to investors the seventh and final interest rate increase of 2022. The government’s retail sales report out Thursday morning will add to a consequential week on Wall Street. All of this coming as investors look to rebound after the S&P 500 and Dow suffered their worst weekly declines since late September. Economists project headline CPI rose 0.3% last month, a marginal deceleration from the 0.4% increase seen in October, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. On an annual basis, CPI likely rose 7.3% in November, down from the prior year-over-year reading of 7.7%. Core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components of the report and is closely tracked by the Fed, is expected to have risen 6.1% over the same month last year, slightly less than the 6.3% seen in October. While a continued downtrend in inflation is expected thanks to falling energy prices, strategists at Bank of America emphasize the inflation problem for policymakers and the economy remains "under the hood," with a potential decline in core prices perhaps only the result of holiday discounting and a decline in used car prices. Meanwhile, shelter inflation is expected to remain sticky. “We expect core services excluding shelter inflation, which is inextricably tied to wages and the labor market, to remain elevated,” the economics team at Bank of America led by Michael Gapen said. On Wednesday, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are poised to lift rates by 50 basis points, a slowdown from the 0.75% increases delivered over the past four meetings. Lighter than expected inflation data isn't expected to deter officials from raising their benchmark policy rate by the projected 0.50% at the conclusion of their meeting. The FOMC will announce its latest policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, as well as release updated economic projections, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET. Powell is expected to continue to push back against the “pivot” narrative — or the view from investors the Fed may stop tightening financial conditions sooner than implied by its forecasts. But a positive surprise (read: lower) on the inflation front may stoke optimism around a policy shift that could overpower any hawkish messaging from Powell. “The Fed is used to holding center stage, but Wednesday’s policy announcement could end up being overshadowed by the November CPI data,” Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth said in a note. “If we’re right and core prices increased by another more muted 0.3% month-over-month last month, then it may not matter how hawkish the Fed’s new interest rate projections are, markets will ignore them.” Fed Chair Powell signaled in a speech last month at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C. that a moderation in interest rate increases may be imminent, citing the lagged impacts of monetary policy. But wage inflation from a continuously strong labor market continues to pose a problem for Fed officials. November’s jobs report saw non-farm payrolls rise by 263,000, bringing the three-month average to a robust 272,000 and revising away the moderation in average hourly earnings. The labor force participation rate fell to 62.1%, suggesting a substantial amount of job openings remain. “All of this suggests to us that Chair Powell will lean hawkish in his press conference, pushing back against easing in financial conditions and reminding investors that a slower pace of hikes does not mean a lower terminal rate,” Bank of America said in its report. BofA's baseline forecast sees the federal funds rate peaking at a target range of 5%-5.25% in the middle of 2023, but Gapen, the bank’s chief economist, said in a recent call with reporters it may go as high as 6% given the labor market’s continued momentum. The Fed funds rate currently stands in a range of 3.75%-4%. “The only way to bring inflation back towards target on a sustained basis is to slow down the labor market.” strategists at BofA noted. Once the Fed and inflation drama are out of the way, the Commerce Department is set to release its monthly retail sales report for November on Thursday. Economists expect headline sales fell 0.2% over the month after climbing 1.3% in October, per Bloomberg consensus estimates. Retail sales activity excluding auto and gas likely rose just 0.1%, down from 0.9% the prior month. The expected softening in consumer spending accounts for a payback in factors that boosted October’s reading like rising gas prices, a one-time stimulus check to Californians, and extended Amazon prime day specials. This month, the print was influenced by a continued rotation from goods to services spending and large discounts amid elevated retailer inventories. Elsewhere in the queue for traders is a lean earnings calendar, with the reporting season mostly at a lull. Notable reports due out include Oracle (ORCL), Lennar (LEN), Adobe (ADBE), and Darden Restaurants (DRI)." MY COMMENT It will be nice to get the high rate increases behind us. This meeting will be the first step in that process. A positive step forward for investors and stocks and funds. —
Markets want to be green today. They are trying to look forward to a good FED rate hike day. Stocks edge higher ahead of inflation data, Fed meeting https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-12-125213269.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks edged higher Monday morning ahead of a busy week for investors, with key inflation data and the Fed's last policy meeting of the year serving as highlights. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) inched higher by 0.2% in early morning trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ticked up by 0.3%, or nearly 120 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) nudged forward by 0.1%. All three major indexes ended with losses during Friday's trading session, capping the worst week for stocks since September. The S&P 500 dropped 3.4% while the Dow fell 2.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 4% for that week. Investors were also keeping an eye on oil early Monday, with WTI crude oil up 0.8% to trade at $71.94 after crude settled at a new low for 2022 on Friday. Yields on government bonds also slightly dipped, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note at around 3.523% early Monday, off a couple of basis points from Friday's settlement. Wall Street geared up for a busy week, as consumer-price data out Tuesday is expected to help inform the expected trajectory of interest rates over the coming months. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate headline CPI to increase by 0.3% for the second consecutive month, with year-over-year CPI falling from 7.7% to 7.3%. The Fed will make its next interest-rate decision Wednesday at the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting, with investors expecting a 0.5% increase in the Fed's benchmark rate. Investors will watch for any clues from the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell to the path of interest rates moving forward. “We may have these higher interest rates go a bit higher than the market's currently predicting,” Thomas H. Lee Partners co-CEO Scott Sperling told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. “And they may sustain for longer than the market is currently predicting.” In corporate news, Twitter Blue is due to relaunch Monday with a nearly 30% surcharge for iPhone owners. The service still costs $8 per month, but will be $11 for those who purchase the services through the App Store. Shares of Horizon Therapeutics Public Limited Company (HZNP) surged 14% on Monday after Amgen agreed to acquire the company in an all-cash deal valued at $27.8 billion, marking it the largest healthcare merge of the year, according to the Wall Street Journal." MY COMMENT Until the FED announcement.....nothing matters this week. We need to see the inflation data and what the FED does. I dont see much doubt that the rate increase will be 0.50%. After this week we will be heading down the other side of the rate increase hill......in terms of the amount of each increase. We will STILL be heading up the hill that represents the length of time that rates will stay high.
My view on the above......I dont think we will see ANY rate cuts in 2023. It is possible but not likely. We will probably see the top rates sit and linger for at least 8-24 months. Not going to go into detail but I see the government....talking about a year end tax bill. It probably will not happen.....but if it does it will be nothing more than the usual FREE MONEY programs in return for some business tax relief. The FED is so screwed as they sit out on their little twig of a limb......with government holding a chain saw to the limb.......as they constantly undermine everything the FED tries to do. just what we need......more money put into the economy......and....more stimulus.
A primary reason for the markets being green.......very slightly......today is the Ten Year rate being down.
If I was a young investor.....I would have one simple rule.....NEVER invest in anything based on social media. Social media financial content is a ‘Wild West.’ Here are the red flags to watch out for before investing your money https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/what-to-know-before-risking-your-money-with-online-money-advice.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points As financial content on social media platforms grows, it may be difficult to separate bona fide expertise from get-rich-quick schemes. Experts say there are warning signs to watch for before you buy into a strategy touted online. Long-term wealth-building strategies should not be an all-or-nothing game. Yet videos on YouTube, TikTok or Instagram may sometimes tout seemingly urgent get-rich-quick schemes. “At the end of the day, if there is some misinformation that’s keeping people on the platform for a very long time, that video might get surfaced to more people than it should,” Humphrey Yang, a financial content creator, said Tuesday during the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit. “It is a little bit of a Wild West out there still,” Yang said. Platforms should implement checks and balances for their content, Yang said. But there are red flags that people should watch for in the content they consume before they put their money at risk. Resist the urge to go all in on trends In 2021, a video on cryptocurrencies would have received a ton of views on apps, Yang noted. Today, cryptocurrency videos are more niche. “The public attention isn’t really there anymore, especially after the FTX fallout,” Yang said. But crypto is an example of the very loud financial trends that tend to take over people’s attention spans on social media, said Brian Barnes, founder and CEO of financial services company M1. For investors, it’s important to remember those trends can fade, and you can get burned. Crypto is a complete sideshow, tokens are like ‘pet rocks,’ says JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon While the stock market is valued at close to $50 trillion, crypto’s market cap is now down to $800 billion, after peaking at around $3 trillion. Compared to nutrition, crypto is more like sugary snacks while long-term wealth building is like a balanced meal, Barnes said. By taking a balanced approach to your investments, that will give you the biggest chance to create long-term wealth, Barnes said. Do your due diligence Another big red flag is if an investment’s promises seem too good to be true. Content creators may tout strategies with unrealistic returns. Unfortunately, some investors won’t know any better, Yang said. But it is possible to spot these schemes by doing some research on your own and comparing an investment’s promises to normal returns, Yang said. The S&P 500 Index’s returns over the past 40 or 50 years would be a good benchmark, he said. Seek professional expertise Social media can still help you stay up to date on the latest financial information. But the key is to know your source. Yang used to be a financial advisor with Series 7 and 66 licenses. Other content creators may not have the same level of expertise or positive intentions. As information on social platforms becomes more personalized, there is the risk you may only see what you want. “There’s a little bit of confirmation bias that they seek out the information they want to hear,” Barnes said. To get a sense of whether a strategy is sound and fits your personal goals and risk appetite, you may want to run it by a reputable professional advisor. MY COMMENT I repeat......NEVER use social media as an source for investing advice. Not if you want to be a wild-ass trader or speculator.....have at it. If you want to try to get rich quick.....have at it. If you want to lose your money.....have at it. BUT.....if you want to actually achieve family wealth and take care of your loved ones.....stick with the simple and boring proven long term strategies. AND.....remember the term "loved ones"...........includes as the primary person........"YOU".
Apparently we are STILL making progress in spite of all that is happening in the markets this year. Americans’ wealth slips further after massive loss in the spring https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/09/economy/americans-wealth-fed-stock-market-housing (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "New York CNN — Americans’ wealth continued to slide in the third quarter as stock prices plunged over the summer — but many Americans still have a healthy financial cushion, compared to pre-pandemic times. That’s according to data from the Federal Reserve released Friday, which showed that the net worth of households and nonprofit organizations dropped by $400 billion to $143.3 trillion in the third quarter. The value of households’ stocks declined by $1.9 trillion, while their real estate holdings increased in value by $700 billion. The decline comes after their wealth plummeted more than $6 trillion in the second quarter, which was also driven primarily by a drop in stock prices. Federal Reserve data is not adjusted for inflation. The third quarter was brutal for stocks. The S&P 500 index fell 5.3% during the period, though it has rebounded since then. House prices, meanwhile, inched up by just 0.1% in the third quarter, compared to the prior quarter, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index. Household debt grew by 6.3% in the third quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, slower than in the prior quarter. Home mortgage debt increased 6.6%, while non-mortgage consumer credit jumped by 7.0% — a slower pace for both compared to the second quarter. Healthy balance sheets Despite the drop in wealth, the report shows that many middle class and upper-income Americans are in good shape financially,compared to pre-pandemic times, said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, an insurance and financial services firm. The net worth of households and nonprofit organizations is 7.7 times their disposable personal income, compared to 7 times in the final quarter of 2019. That is allowing them to keep spending even though inflation has pushed up prices. And if the United States falls into a recession in the near future, this strong balance sheet should help prevent it from being a very deep downturn, she said. The current slide in wealth is a notable turnaround from the robust gains that began in mid-2020, fueled by skyrocketing prices of homes and equities. Net worth hit a high of $150.1 trillion in the final quarter of last year but then declined for the past three consecutive quarters. Even with the turbulent times on Wall Street and the slowdown in the real estate market this year, households and nonprofit groups have only lost about $7 trillion. That’s still far above the $110.8 trillion in the first quarter of 2020, when the start of the Covid-19 pandemic roiled equities and the economy. “Despite all of the hysteria about the drop in the stock market, we really haven’t seen a huge impact on net worth,” Brian Bethune, economist at Boston College, said of this year’s decline. Grim views on personal finances and the economy Still, Americans are not happy about their financial situation. About half said it’s worse than it was a year ago, while around a third said they’re in about the same financial shape, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS found. Only 16% said they are now better off. In CNN’s December 2021 poll, only a third said their finances had worsened over the course of the previous year. Some 93% of those responding to the recent survey said they are at least somewhat concerned by the current cost of living, including 63% who said they were very concerned. Slightly over half said they believe the economy is continuing to worsen, while 30% said it has stabilized. Only 17% said economic conditions are getting better." MY COMMENT So in spite of all the bad news this year for stock accounts......people are still in pretty good shape. NOT good news for the poor fools at the FED. The spending will continue in the economy.
Markets are STILL green......and.....in fact the gains have escalated into the morning. Looking good with only 4.5 hours to go. We need a good week after the crap week we had last week. It would also be nice to end the year with a little rally over the next 2-3 weeks.
An OUTSTANDING start to the week for the markets. Some little predictions for 2023: 1. There will NOT be a hard landing. 2. There will NOT be a recession. 3. We have already hit the bear market lows....although we will make a run at retesting them some time in the year.....which will fail. 4. We have now seen the worst of the rate increases.......and......will now starting with December.......see 2-4 increases at 0.50% and than perhaps a few at 0.25%....before the FED just holds firm for the longer term. 5. We will see the SP500 produce a total return of about 12-15% in 2023. 6. As the year goes on investors will realize.....in hindsight...... that the worst was over in 2022 and will begin to strongly move forward. THOSE.....are my holiday predictions for the NEW YEAR.....and if the come true......a big gift for investors that had the guts to sit through 2022 and not give in to the fear and panic. At the moment I believe that the market PROBABILITIES strongly favor the above.
I made good money today. Nine of ten stocks nicely UP. The one down stock.....TSLA. I also got in a beat on the SP500 by 0.25%. If we get the expected FED rate hike.....and.....a good inflation figure.....we could be in for a nice BIG GAIN week. There could even STILL be hope for a Santa Rally. It will all depend on the CPI data. Of course.....never underestimate the ability of the FED to screw up a perfectly good week in the markets with there incessant talking.
