I paid absolutely NO attention to the markets today. Nothing I can do about IRRATIONAL. All I can do is continue my life long focus on the LONG TERM. I have nothing to add to how the markets performed today. What I posted earlier in the day just continued all day long. A total wasteland for stocks and funds today. Short term.....yes.....IT HAPPENS.
Just to make myself feel better at someone else's expense. Cathie Wood Loses Big Money On Every Stock She Owns https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-...ses-money-on-every-stock-she-owns/?src=A00220 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Even in a bad year, most investors at least have a few stocks they can brag about. Not so this year with Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). The popular $7.1 billion-in-assets ETF currently holds 30 stock positions. And all of them are down this year. And not by a little. The average drop of the stocks in the ETF's portfolio is nearly 60%, says an Investor's Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSmith. ARK Innovation's total loss this year is nearly 63%, says Morningstar Direct. That's the largest drop among the more than 230 actively traded diversified ETFs. The S&P 500, in contrast, is down just 14.4% including dividends. Struggles of one of the most popular actively managed ETFs this year underscore how quickly and dramatically the market changed this year. Many of the hottest stocks during the 2020 rally fueled by low interest rates are the biggest victims to rising rates. "The more narrowly focused thematic ETFs suffered the most and perhaps are too concentrated for many shareholders," said Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi. Biggest Holes In The ARK ARK Innovation holds more than its fair share of catastrophes. Three stocks in its current portfolio are down 80% or more. The ETF's hardest hit stock is health care play Invitae (NVTA). The company that helps collect genetic data from patients has seen its stock crash more than 85% this year. The company reported disappointing quarterly results on Nov. 8, when it lost $1.27 a share, much worse than the 84 cents a share analysts expected. The stock's drop is not a huge blow for ARK Innovation, as the position only accounts for less than 1% of the portfolio. But the same can't be said about two of ARK Innovation's other two losing stocks: financial Coinbase (COIN) and technology stock Twilio (TWLO). Combined, the two stocks account for nearly 7% of ARK Innovation's portfolio. And both companies, both led by the founders, are down more than 80% this year. Huge Hits To ARK Invest The stocks ARK Innovation owns that have dropped this year hurt. And the ETF's biggest positions leave the biggest marks. And that's why the 60% drop in Zoom Video (ZM) stings ARK Invest. The online video conferencing technology company, which was a household name during the pandemic, is wavering now. The company's hyperactive growth is slowing down fast. Analysts think the company will make $3.95 a share on an adjusted basis this fiscal year, down more than 20% from the previous year. Tesla (TSLA), a big position for ARK Invest at 7.1% of the portfolio, also lost more than half its value this year. ARK Investors Stay Onboard Investors in the ARK Innovation ETF, though, aren't letting some red ink scare them. Investors poured $1.4 billion into the ARK Innovation ETF this year, says Rosenbluth. That makes the ETF unique among ARK's family of funds, most of which have seen investors pulling money out. The whole family of ARK ETFs posted a combined outflow of $483 million this year, Rosenbluth says. "Investors have largely stayed committed to the disruptive technology thematic approach ARKK offers despite the fund's sharp losses," he said. That's very unusual, as investors usually pull money out of ETFs that are down "significantly" to move into hotter areas of the market. Rosenbluth thinks most investors use funds like ARK Innovation for a small slice of their long-term portfolio. And that helps them be patient with losses. "Many shareholders are committed to the ARKK approach and are likely looking for 2023 to be a bounce-back year," he said." MY COMMENT It will be interesting to see what sort of a bounce-back this fund gets when the markets turn positive again. Could be BIG.....but will it be enough to cancel out the HUGE losses the fund is racking up right now?
Another story that might make stock investors feel a bit better. God hep anyone that got into house flipping with the wrong timing and lots of borrowed money. Home flipping profits drop at the fastest pace in over a decade https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/15/home-flipping-profits-drop-at-fastest-pace-in-over-a-decade.html "Key Points Investors are pulling out of the flipping market, as profits drop very quickly. In the third quarter, gross flipping profit fell 18.4% from the previous quarter. Roughly 7.5% of third quarter home sales were flips, still historically high, but down from 8.2% in the second quarter." MY COMMENT I am sure in spite of the above........ astute house flippers that know the market very well and still doing ok. The pro's are probably doing ok.....the amateurs, not so much.....as usual in house flipping.
NOT looking good for the Santa Rally at the moment. We now have just 11 market days left this year. We seem to be ending exactly as we started.
Looks like we start the day where we left off yesterday....red. I added my contributions in this morning to get them out of the way for this last month of the year. Maybe I should have looked around and seen what many of the "experts" were predicting for today. Of course I am kidding about that. I simply do not give a rats behind about any of their views or outlooks.
Speaking of rats....there is so much junk out there today when one does take a look at some of these financial media platforms/sites. Excessive amounts of junk tend to attract rats. It is just amazing the amount of totally worthless information and guidance out there nowadays. By and large, most of it is useless for anyone investing with a long term plan.
More pain today. I like the message at the end of this little article. Most of it deals with England and the UK so I will skip right to the end. Why Markets Seem to See Through Britain’s Blues https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...hy-markets-seem-to-see-through-britains-blues "Always remember to think like markets do. Set aside the emotions that seeing and living through bad economic spells can inflict. Tune down sociological matters, like the ongoing industrial actions, that are very real and important issues but generally mean little to corporations’ bottom line in the end—and therefore don’t register for stocks. Look to the future. Consider not just reality, but how that reality squares with forecasts. Remember surprises matter most and that stocks deal in probabilities, not possibilities. If forecasts are universally gloomy and things couldn’t possibly go even worse, then there is a high likelihood of positive surprise—which, usually, is good enough for stocks."
HERE is the......supposed.....cause of the drop today....not that anyone really knows why the marekts do what they do over the short term. Stocks sink after more bad news on the US economy https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-december-16-125058708.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks sank early Friday, pacing toward a second-straight weekly loss, as more downbeat news on the U.S. economy accelerated a move lower. Near 10:10 a.m. ET, the S&P 500 and Dow were off 1.2%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.8%. Earlier in the session, the Nasdaq had moved into positive territory. The latest leg lower for stocks followed preliminary readings on economic activity in the U.S. this month from S&P Global, which showed a further deterioration in activity to start December. S&P Global's services PMI fell to a four-month low, while its manufacturing index hit a 31-month low in December. "Business conditions are worsening as 2022 draws to a close, with a steep fall in the PMI indicative of GDP contracting in the fourth quarter at an annualized rate of around 1.5%," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Jobs growth has meanwhile slowed to a crawl as firms across both manufacturing and services take a much more cautious approach to hiring amid the slump in customer demand." On Thursday, the November retail sales report was unexpectedly weak, prompting concern over the health of the U.S. consumer, which has been the driver of a better-than-expected economy this year. After rebounding earlier this week, U.S. stocks are again on pace to log weekly losses again after last week saw the S&P 500 suffer its worst weekly loss since late September. Investors also had an eye on crude oil early Friday, with WTI futures down over 3% to trade near $73.70 a barrel. Early this week, oil hit a new 2022 low. Friday's trading comes after Thursday's deep sell-off that saw the Nasdaq fall more than 3%, as the Federal Reserve's interest-rate increase on Wednesday was followed by matching moves Thursday morning from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. On the the earnings calendar, news is light, with Darden Restaurants (DRI) and Winnebago Industries (WGO) both rising after their latest reports. In crypto markets, bitcoin (BTC-USD) and other major cryptocurrencies were under selling pressure early Friday, with bitcoin dropping below $17,000 in early trading. Earlier this week, bitcoin had risen above $18,000 for the first time since the collapse of FTX in early November." MY COMMENT We are NOW......a full year......into a bear market. How time flies when you are having fun. This is the first REAL bear market since 2008/2009 and 2002. The hoards of new and young investors are getting a first taste of a bad market. It seems like most people are holding up pretty well. UNFORTUNATELY....we have another 8-24 months to go before things change. The more delusional the response of government and the more they ignore and fight against the FED.....the longer this will linger.
A nice little summary of the sad story of the BIG CAP TECH companies right now. 5 Charts on Big Tech Stocks’ Collapse Big Tech stocks collectively lost nearly $4 trillion in market value in 2022. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1129535/5-charts-on-big-tech-stocks-collapse (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "In 2020 and 2021, one of the best places for stock investors to have their money was in mega-cap technology stocks. In 2022, it was one of the worst. Tech has been one of the worst-performing sectors of the year, largely pulled down by the poor performance of software companies. As of Dec. 9, the Morningstar US Technology Index was down 28.7% for the year, underperforming the Morningstar US Market Index, which is down 18.7%. But it’s the collapse of so-called Big Tech that has attracted attention, as recession fears and macroeconomic pressures battered their shares as the year unfolded. Among the large technology stocks that had been big winners in recent years, Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook, has lost 65.5% this year, semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia (NVDA) lost 42.1%, and Microsoft (MSFT) fell 26.3%. Even Apple (AAPL), which has remained relatively buoyant, is still on track to finish the year with worse losses than the overall market. As losses piled up, Big Tech stocks’ total market capitalization sank. The six largest U.S. tech stocks were worth about $10.7 trillion at the end of 2021 altogether. Over the course of 2022, they lost nearly $3.8 trillion in market cap and are now collectively worth about $6.9 trillion—back to July 2020 levels. In terms of total dollar value, Amazon.com (AMZN) lost the most in the group during the year, about $788 billion, followed by Alphabet, which lost $714 billion. Big Tech’s weightings in market indexes. Overall, the six Big Tech stocks’ influence has fallen to 17.4% of the Morningstar US Market Index from 21% at the start of the year. Still, Big Tech’s influence is still greater than what it was three years ago. As of Dec. 31, 2019, it represented about 15% of the index. The largest change in weighting in the broad market index among the group during 2022 was Meta Platforms. The stock is now the 22nd-largest weighting in the Morningstar US Market Index as of Nov. 30, down from the seventh largest at the start of the year. While Big Tech’s influence on the market index has fallen, these stocks still had an outsize impact on returns over the past year. Having started the year with a 21% weighting, and given the scope of the losses, Big Tech’s collapse has had a larger effect on the market’s returns in 2022 than in 2021. According to return contribution data from Morningstar Direct, of the U.S. market index’s 18.7% loss between Jan. 1 and Dec. 9, about 7 percentage points of that decline came from Big Tech stocks. That represents about 37% of the market’s total loss for the year. Moving forward, Big Tech’s influence on the market may be closer to what it was in 2021, when the Morningstar US Market Index was weighted about 19.3% toward Big Tech stocks given its current weight of 17.4% In 2021, of the 24.12% US Market Index gain that year, Big Tech stocks contributed 6.7 percentage points, which represented about 28% of the return. Why Did Big Tech Stocks Perform Badly? Even Apple, which was generally more buoyant than many other tech companies, is down more than the overall market in 2022, losing 19.5%. Apple’s stock stayed afloat due to strong iPhone 14 and Mac computer sales. Heading into the fourth quarter, the company anticipated iPhone demand to accelerate and started to boost production. However, those plans were scrapped after the projected demand failed to materialize. Worst off among the group was Meta Platforms, whose stock was pummeled amid concerns about its cash-intensive strategy to become a metaverse leader in 2022. Recession fears compounded Meta’s problems, as a major source of revenue—advertising—showed signs of slowing down during the third quarter. The company also potentially faces up to $13 billion in fines for failing to comply with data privacy rules set by the European Union in the General Data Protection Regulation of 2018. About 66.5% of Meta Platforms’ stock market value was wiped out during 2022, and it now trades in a price range last seen toward the end of 2016. It’s also the only Big Tech stock that has negative annualized three- and five-year returns. Alphabet (GOOGL), the parent company of Google, saw its stock also take a hit from economic worries, especially changing spending habits from advertisers concerned about future consumer spending. Changing consumer spending behavior also spelled trouble for Amazon.com shares, which have declined 46.6% year to date, and subsequently lost its status as a trillion-dollar company. Investors were caught off guard when the company revealed a much more conservative guidance for revenue in the fourth quarter of $140 billion to $148 billion, below the analyst consensus of $156 billion at the time, according to FactSet. Microsoft, meanwhile, showed signs of weakness after the software giant disappointed investors with revenue guidance of $52.35 billion to $53.35 billion for the fourth quarter, compared with previous analyst estimates of $56.22 billion. Shares are down 26.3% for the year so far. Nvidia’s stock slide came on the heels of huge gains in 2021. The semiconductor manufacturing leader surged 125.5% in 2021, only to collapse 42.1% in 2022. Driving the reversal: Tailwinds from the work-from-home transition and computer shortages both abated much sooner than anticipated. In addition, new restrictions from the U.S. on the sale of advanced chips to China also hurt investors’ confidence in the company’s growth prospects." MY COMMENT PERVERSELY.......the BIG CAP companies in the current market have not performed as safe havens. In the past when there was economic disaster.....the BIG CAP companies would serve as safer havens for money. They would go down....but not as much as other sorts of companies. We are now in an investing world where.....ICONIC QUALITY....simply does not matter anymore. One BIG difference today compared to the past........the obsessive, daily, TABLOID media coverage of the markets. In the past the coverage was mostly business publications......Investors Business Daily and the Wall Street Journal......plus a very few business magazines. NOW......financial speculative and tabloid coverage is relentless and daily. this has definitely changed the markets and how they act. This STRENGTHENS the need for investors to be TOUGH. We now have to have the guts to ignore it all....day after day. Long term investors have to be as relentless in their fixation on the long term.......as the media are in their speculation and opinion coverage of the short term.
I actually prefer to see the market move down today as a reaction to the Ten Year Treasury yield which is UP fairly significantly today. If I was a short term investor.....this would be my guiding star.
NO.....you can NEVER count on government when it comes to spending your own money and anticipating the future. About 6 years ago I did a very DEEP DIVE analysis of solar panels for our home. No matter how I looked at it........the initial investment was so high that it DID NOT ever make financial sense. it was a MONEY LOSER. California cuts payments to homeowners for solar panels feeding energy back to the grid https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/15/california-lowers-solar-energy-incentives-for-homeowners.html
I have nothing concrete to say about this.....but.......where is my self driving car? We used to hear about this nearly daily 3-6 years ago. Now.....total crickets. Sorry.....just a sudden random thought.
Funny you mention this. You may notice I haven't owned Tesla in nearly 2 years. I've mentioned this a few times in the Tesla thread in the stock forum. FSD, or most of it, is already baked into the price of TSLA. It's not that I don't believe in Tesla. I do, even now. My issue is that Tesla would be worth something like $2T if it had FSD and could dominate ride share, automobiles, and charging. When I sold, the Tesla market cap was just over $900B. It had less than 100% headroom to my dream valuation and had not yet delivered on two primary elements of the dream. They continue to ramp production and are the most exciting company on the planet, and yet they remain one of the lower volume major car manufacturers. They continue to make progress on FSD, some of it is extraordinary, but they have not yet delivered and it isn't super clear what it will look like when it arrives. If I knew a startup company would double in value in 5 years, if they delivered on their promises, I would not buy them. I need 10x from pie in the sky because promises are rarely delivered as envisioned and even more rarely live up to the hype. Roll in the infinite down side and 2x is simply no where near enough. So, there was not nearly enough upside to a $1T Tesla for me. I have been a happy non-Tesla company owner since January 2021. Sold in the $800s. It peaked something like $1150 so I left 50% on the table. One of the companies I allocated the money to has doubled in value in that time. The other went well up for a period and is now a little bit lower than where I purchased in January of 2021. They continue to distribute at 9 and 7%. I am really not far from where I would be if Tesla had delivered on all promises in the time frame they said and the market cap had gone to $2T. Tesla's ace in the hole is the Optimus robot. It could be worth $10T if a group of Optimus could make more Optimus but I'm not yet ready to invest in that platform. Perhaps soon. Perhaps never. I'm watching.
You know over the past few days I keep hearing people on the TV business shows saying that the FED does not want to crash the stock markets. My view is that is EXACTLY what they want and are intentionally doing. I have no solid proof.....but day after day I see members of the FED just "happen" to come out and give negative commentary on the days when the markets are UP. AND....contrary to the past.....particularly the inflation disaster of the late 1970's and 1980's......I NEVER hear them give any positive or consoling comments to the public or the country.....about the future. I think the FED is now in a position where........about all they can do.....is crash the markets. That is all they have the power to do.....so that is what they will do. They have come to the view......as I see it.......that crashing the markets is their best hope of stopping a hot economy. In the past the FED would put a damper on the economy with the side affect of impeding the stock market. Now they are crashing the stock markets while trying to impede the economy. This matters for a couple of reasons. First they are concentrating the primary PAIN on the percentage of the population that are stock investors. Second......they are destroying the retirement of millions of baby boomers right when they are entering retirement......at a historic time when for the first time in history.....the primary vehicle that people are forced to use for retirement funding is the stock markets. Third by focusing most of the PAIN on stock investors in particular.....they are punishing the most productive people in our society. YES.......we truly are living in an IDIOCRACY......in the short term. But have faith........the long term STILL has promise for investors......so: I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
Santa is going to have an uphill battle to close out the year looks like. I'm hoping he can surprise us since almost nobody would expect it at this point. "Tis the Season for miracles. Yeah, that's all I got at this point, but I'm okay with it.
I was RED today. A medium loss in my account. I had a single stock Up today....HON. AND....I got beat by the SP500 by 0.18%.
Forget about Santa. The question is......are we going to take a run at the prior market bottom. I still have a cushion to get back to my prior low of the year. BUT.....with weeks like this one......I could get there.
Here is the end of another week.....TWO WEEKS.....to go than we can kiss 2022 goodbye and god riddance. Dow year to date (-9.42%) DOW for the week (-1.66%) SP500 year to date (-19.17%) SP500 for the week (-2.08%} NASDAQ 100 year to date (-31.10%) NASDAQ 100 for the week (-2.76%) NASDAQ year to date (-31.57%) NASDAQ for the week (-2.72%) RUSSELL year to date (-21.46%) RUSSELL for the week (-1.85%) BUMMER
TomB16 mentioned TSLA above....so here you go. Tesla stock is in the midst of its worst-ever drawdown https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-price-history-worst-ever-drawdown-191436942.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) Tesla stock is in the midst of largest drawdown since the company went public back in 2010. Shares of the EV maker are down 64% from a peak last November, marking the stock's largest drawdown since its market debut, according to data from Compound Capital. The recent 407-day stretch of selling pressure has eclipsed the 60.6% drop from a peak seen over the 28 days from Feb. 19, 2020 to Mar. 18, 2020 (chart below), when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic rocked markets worldwide. More recently, Tesla stock is down 22% in December alone. The bottom has dropped out of Tesla's stock price. (Compound Capital) The declines for the once-bankable automaker reflect several factors. First, the risk of operational miscues at Tesla has grown as Musk focuses on restructuring Twitter. "Musk has gone from a superhero to Tesla’s stock to a villain in the eyes of the Street as the overhang grows with each tweet," Wedbush Managing Director Dan Ives, who has become increasingly critical of Musk in 2022, told Yahoo Finance. Concerns also remain around manufacturing issues and the pace of sales for Tesla in China amid an uncertain approach to the country's COVID-19 policies. Finally, competition in the EV space in the United States has only intensified this year — raising the risk of slowing growth for Tesla in 2023 and beyond. On the first and most immediate issue, others on the Street agree with Ives that the debacle at Twitter is the most pressing issue for the stock right now and will likely remain that way well into 2023. "Tesla’s brand has become more polarizing," Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney said in a note this week. "We believe that Tesla’s brand has significant value related to the company’s leadership position in clean energy and advanced technology. Having consumer focus related to Tesla shift back to these core attributes of sustainability and technology will be important in our view if Tesla is to meet or exceed long-term investor expectations for Tesla."" MY COMMENT This is a pretty dramatic loss for the month and for the year. With the continuation of the issues in China and the media turning on Musk.....this company is still at risk. I still like the company.....but....will consider this stock a 1-2 year "watch" along with Amazon. We are not there yet with either company....but as an investor there are times that you just have to bite the bullet and take what you can get for a stock and move on.
