The Long Term Investor

And....speaking of TESLA.

PepsiCo is using 36 Tesla Semis in its fleet and is upgrading facilities for more in 2023, exec says

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/16/pep...ng-facilities-for-more-in-2023-exec-says.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• PepsiCo plans to roll out 100 of the heavy-duty Tesla Semis it reserved in 2023, when it will start making deliveries to customers like Walmart and Kroger, the soda maker’s top supply chain official told Reuters on Friday.
• PepsiCo is purchasing the big trucks “outright” and is upgrading its plants, including installing four 750-kilowatt Tesla charging stalls at both its Modesto and Sacramento locations.
• PepsiCo is deploying 36 electric trucks from Tesla, with 15 in Modesto and 21 in Sacramento, so far.

PepsiCo plans to roll out 100 of the heavy-duty Tesla Semis it reserved in 2023, when it will start making deliveries to customers like Walmart and Kroger, the soda maker’s top supply chain official told Reuters on Friday.

PepsiCo is purchasing the big trucks “outright” and is upgrading its plants, including installing four 750-kilowatt Tesla charging stalls at both its Modesto and Sacramento locations, PepsiCo Vice President Mike O’Connell said in an interview. A $15.4 million California state grant and $40,000 federal subsidy per vehicle helps offset part of the costs.

“It’s a great starting point to electrify,” said O’Connell, who oversees the company’s fleet of vehicles.

“Like any early technology, the incentives help us build out the program,” he adding, saying “there’s lots of development” and infrastructure costs.

PepsiCo, which ordered the Semis in 2017, is the first company to experiment with them as a way of cutting its environmental impact.

United Parcel Service and food delivery company Sysco have also reserved the trucks, while retailer Walmart is testing alternatives.

PepsiCo’s plans to use the Semis have been reported, but O’Connell provided new details on how the company is using them and its timeline for deploying them.

The company’s Frito-Lay division sells lightweight food products, making it a good candidate for electric trucks whose heavy batteries could limit cargo capacity. PepsiCo is deploying 36 electric trucks from Tesla, with 15 in Modesto and 21 in Sacramento, so far.

PepsiCo’s new Semis can haul Frito-Lay food products for around 425 miles (684 km), but for heavier loads of sodas, the trucks will do shorter trips of around 100 miles (160 km), O’Connell said.

“Dragging a trailer full of chips around is not the most intense, tough ask,” said Oliver Dixon, senior analyst at consultancy Guidehouse.

“I still believe that Tesla has an awful lot to prove to the broader commercial vehicle marketplace,” Dixon said, citing Tesla’s unwillingness to offer information on payload and pricing.

The company has earmarked some of the trucks to make deliveries to Walmart and grocers such as Kroger and Albertsons.

All of the Semis going to PepsiCo will have a 500-mile (805-km) range. O’Connell added that he is not aware of when Tesla will start deploying 300-mile (480-km) trucks. When Tesla starts building them, PepsiCo “will rotate those up” into its fleet, he said.

PepsiCo declined to share details on the price of the trucks, a figure that Tesla has kept quiet. Competing vehicles sell for $230,000 to $240,000, said Mark Barrott of consulting firm Plante Moran. He added that the 500-mile range Tesla Semi could be priced higher because its 1,000-kilowatt-hour (kWh) battery pack is about twice the size of many of its rivals.

“We keep the trucks for a million miles, seven years,” O’Connell said. “The operating costs over time will pay back.”

The Gatorade maker declined to share specifics on the weight of the trucks, another closely guarded secret by Tesla.

The company is targeting rolling out the Semis in the central U.S. next, then the East Coast, O’Connell said.

He said Tesla did not help pay for the trucks’ megachargers but provided design and engineering services for the facilities, which come with solar and battery storage systems.

O’Connell said that a 425-mile (684-km) trip carrying Frito-Lay products brings the Semi’s battery down to roughly 20%, and recharging it takes around 35 to 45 minutes."

MY COMMENT

Not sure any of this is cost effective without the FREE GOVERNMENT money. But for TESLA this is a good thing to get trucks out onto the road and be able to see how they operate in real life conditions.

 

We had a good night last night at our show. A good crowd. It was OUTSIDE in the evening. When we started it was about 48 degrees.....when we ended it was 39 degrees. I was surprised by the number of people there in the cold. We probably had about 400 to 500 people there. At least we did not get canceled.....I would rather play in the cold than not at all.

At least we will be playing an inside venue next Friday......it is going to be about 18 degrees that night. The next weekend.....New Years Eve......we are back outside again, but the temperatures are supposed to be significantly higher.

 

TEN.....market days left in the year.......make that NINE market days. the markets are closed on December 26 since Christmas falls on a weekend. It is the.....FINAL COUNTDOWN.....to year end and a new beginning at "0".....for one day.

 

The week to come.

PCE inflation, FedEx, Nike results lead into the holidays: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...e-fedex-earnings-pce-inflation-182343611.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The holiday season is underway, but a few key earnings and economic reports will deck the halls on Wall Street before markets shut down for a long Christmas weekend.

In the days ahead, the economic calendar will bring investors the latest personal consumption expenditures price index — or PCE — which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, as well as another reading on GDP, a batch of housing data, and the Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence.

On the corporate side, earnings from Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX), Micron Technology (MU), Carnival (CCL) will keep traders busy.

The earnings and economic lineup will offer 2022’s final clues for investors’ main focus heading into the new year: how much higher Federal Reserve officials will raise interest rates and whether those policy moves will tip the U.S. economy into a recession.

The PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation set for release Friday — is perhaps the most crucial data point of the week ahead.

On a monthly basis, PCE is expected to show a 0.1% rise in November, down slightly from 0.3% the prior month, Bloomberg consensus estimates show. PCE inflation likely eased to a rate of 5.5% from 6% previously over the year. Core PCE, stripping the volatile food and energy components out, is set to show a 0.2% climb over the prior month — unchanged from October — and a slightly slower rise of 4.7% over the year, down from 5% the prior month.

Following the Fed’s final policy announcement of 2022 on Wednesday, strategists pointed out that the most surprising datapoint among economic projections from policymakers was an upward revision to their core PCE expectations to 3.5% from 3.1% previously at the end of 2023.

“This was somewhat surprising to us because we thought a higher path for the policy rate would mean a lower path for inflation, but these revisions suggest that the median member sees inflation as being significantly stickier than they previously thought in September,” Bank of America’s Michael Gapen and his team of strategists said in a recent note.

Nikko Asset Management Chief Global Strategist John Vail also pointed out that this means officials think they will need to keep rates at a high terminal rate through 2023, even assuming some lag effects.

Worries about “higher for longer” rates and a resulting economic downturn have so far weighed heavily on Wall Street this December, a traditionally bullish period for the stock market that appears to be anything but this season.

Investors have been hoping for a Santa Claus rally — a sustained rise in the stock market that occurs around year-end holidays. Typically defined as covering the last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year, regardless of dates this year's hopes for a rally have been dampened.

On Friday, U.S. stocks confirmed back-to-back weekly losses for the first time since September. For the week, the S&P 500 shed 2.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.7%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite 2.7%.

During the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphatically asserted he and his colleagues are committed to bringing inflation back down to 2%, the U.S. central bank’s long-term price stability target as measured by PCE.

The last reading in October came in three times that goal at 6%, with the core measure at 5%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annual clip of 7.1% in November. The CPI index sources data from consumers, while PCE sources from businesses, each tracking a different scope of expenditures. CPI, for example, only captures out-of-pocket consumer medical expenses, while PCE includes employer contributions.

Updates on the housing market will also be closely watched in the week ahead. The December homebuilder survey and measure of housing starts, existing home sales, and new home sales are all on tap. Shelter cost increases are a key component of sticky inflation.

Elsewhere on the economic docket, the government will release its third and final estimate of GDP, the broadest measure of U.S. economic activity, which is likely to show real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2022 — unchanged from prior estimates. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which tracks U.S. consumer attitudes, spending plans, and expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates, is also due out.

On the corporate side, FedEx and Nike earnings will be critical gauges of consumer spending during the all-important holiday shopping season, while Micron’s results will offer the latest look at the chip industry."

MY COMMENT

The usual....blah, blah, blah.....about investors being worried about....blah, blah, blah. ALL the stuff that is supposedly weighing on the markets day to day and week to week......have been TOTALLY baked in and known for at least 6-8 months now. It has all been TOTALLY telegraphed by the FED way before now.

 

This is a topic that most companies and people in the media will NOT talk about.......the drastic decline in worker productivity since work from home became a thing.

Marc Benioff tells Salesforce workers that new employees are ‘facing lower productivity’

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/16/mar...salesforce-employees-are-less-productive.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Marc Benioff, cofounder and co-CEO of Salesforce, said in a Slack message to employees on Friday that the company’s newest workers weren’t productive enough.
• “Are we not building tribal knowledge with new employees without an office culture?” Benioff asked in a message viewed by CNBC.
• The message triggered a range of responses.

Co-CEO Marc Benioff told employees in a Slack message on Friday that the company’s newest hires aren’t being productive enough, and he asked for feedback as to why that’s the case.

“Are we not building tribal knowledge with new employees without an office culture?” he asked in a message viewed by CNBC. He said he was “asking for a friend,” a phrase people often use on the internet to humorously reveal their curiosity about a topic. The message included an emoji showing a smiling face with a halo hovering over it, suggesting innocence.

Benioff’s companywide message addresses what’s become a hot-button issue in Silicon Valley. Since the arrival of Covid sent workers home almost three years ago, companies have been trying to reimagine a future workplace that allows more employee flexibility than in the past. Some businesses have allowed employees to work from anywhere permanently.

Salesforce, the biggest private employer in San Francisco, was among the first tech companies to tell its workforce they didn’t have to come back. Last year, Salesforce acquired communications app Slack, and Benioff said people can work very effectively from their homes. Salesforce said it would let teams decide how much time they would be in office.

But Benioff may be recognizing some of the challenges remote work presents. On Friday he highlighted an issue that he said was affecting employees who joined Salesforce this year and last. Salesforce’s headcount grew by 32% in the past year, and last month it cut hundreds of jobs.

A Salesforce spokesperson declined to comment on Benioff’s message but sent a statement on the company’s policy.

“We have a hybrid work environment that empowers leaders and teams to work together with purpose,” the spokesperson wrote. “They can decide when and where they come together to collaborate, innovate, and drive customer success.”

Benioff is contending with slowing revenue growth as the economy weakens, and a thinning of the upper ranks within Salesforce. Last month, the company said Bret Taylor would be stepping down from his position as co-CEO in January. He’d just been promoted to share the top job with Benioff a year earlier. And days later, Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield announced his departure.

Here’s the full text of Benioff’s Slack post:

How do we increase the productivity of our employees at salesforce? New employees (hired during the pandemic in 2021 & 2022) are especially facing much lower productivity. Is this a reflection of our office policy? Are we not building tribal knowledge with new employees without an office culture? Are our managers not directly addressing productivity with their teams? Are we not investing enough time into our new employees? Do managers focus enough time and energy on onboarding new employees & achieving productivity? is coming as a new employee to salesforce too overwhelming? Asking for a friend. (Im leaving this open ended to get the broadest level of response.)

The message prompted a variety of comments.

Some reacted with an emoji stating “THIS” alongside an up arrow. Others chose emojis that read “WFH” or “citation needed.” Dozens went with a standard emoji known as thinking face.

Benioff chimed in again in the responses.

“Asking hard questions of employees (and customers and each other) for their answers is one of the most effective ways to get answers as a leader today,” he wrote. “It’s why we bought Slack because there is no better way to ask questions and crowd source answers quickly. Already today we have almost 500 replies to these questions — amazing and incredibly useful!”

He was displeased that his message found its way to the press, ultimately ending up on Twitter.

“I hope you will agree it is also disappointing that our private conversations here were almost immediately given to the public media,” he wrote. “I wonder how do we reinforce that Trust is our highest company value? How do we demonstrate the power of Trust and Transparency without an immediate public disclosure. It gets to the heart of who we are at salesforce.”

His responses were shared with CNBC."

MY COMMENT

I know EXACTLY where we are headed.....as a former business owner and employer.

Not surprisingly the media and companies are afraid to address this topic.....at least honestly. We have been constantly told for the past two years all about......how amazingly productive and great work from home is for business. WELL.....the data that is starting to come out is not showing that......at all.

 

AMAZING....figures here.

‘Porch pirates’ stole an estimated 260 million packages in the last year. How to prevent theft on your doorstep

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/18/porch-pirates-stole-an-estimated-260-million-packages-in-2021.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

MY COMMENT

Ok......260 million in package losses. Just under $20BILLION in losses to the economy and retailers and/or customers. Add that to the shoplifting losses that are now RAMPANT.....and....you are talking about real money. BUSINESS KILLER....type money.

NO.....I am NOT going to talk about or touch the topic of why these losses are happening......even with a 50 foot pole.

 

Some pre-open thoughts today.

Key Considerations on a Down Day With Drab Data

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...y-considerations-on-a-down-day-with-drab-data

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Resist the temptation to draw sweeping conclusions.

Stocks seemingly snapped a month-long flat stretch Thursday, but not in a good way. The S&P 500 fell -2.5% in price terms, with many pundits blaming a batch of weak US economic data for fanning recession fears. An easy enough narrative to weave, but one that ignores a basic tenet: Markets are forward-looking, pre-pricing events about 3 – 30 months out. If the litany of forecasts and surveys hitting headlines in recent months is a reliable guide, stocks have spent much of this year discounting recession risk. Bad data and bad returns coincided Thursday, yes, but we think it is an error to draw sweeping conclusions for the economy or stocks based on this development.

Yes, Thursday’s most-watched reports weren’t pretty. November industrial production fell -0.2% m/m, but the underlying data reversed from October.[ii] Then, headline output fell -0.1% as a -1.3% drop in utilities output, due perhaps to a warmer-than-expected October in some parts, wiped out a 0.3% rise in manufacturing output.[iii] In November, chilly weather brought a 3.6% m/m jump in utilities production, but manufacturing sank -0.7%.[iv] High-tech-related production held up rather well, but auto and non-durable goods output sank, implying rather broad-based weakness.

November retail sales told a similar story, falling -0.6% m/m.[v] Some coverage bemoaned that this drop occurred despite Black Friday and holiday discounting, seemingly forgetting that the Commerce Department seasonally adjusts the data for these things. A lot of the decline came from falling auto sales, and given the corresponding drop in auto output, it is tough to determine whether this is a supply or demand problem. DIY-type stores also saw big declines (-2.5% m/m), which may be a trailing indicator of the real estate slowdown.[vi] Clothing (-0.2%) and general merchandise stores (-0.1%) endured much milder declines, while restaurants enjoyed another nice month with 0.9% growth.[vii] None of these data are inflation adjusted, which clouds the results.

So, yah, bad. But, crucially, not new. On the retail sales front, July was similarly bad. It turned out to be an outlier in an otherwise decent year—and it translated to a much milder, one-off consumer spending drop of only -0.1%.[viii] Meanwhile, industrial production fell in five of seven months through November, with manufacturing down -0.4% m/m in May and -0.7% in June.[ix] But factories enjoyed a summertime rebound. And, perhaps more compelling, the consumer spending and business investment portions of GDP, which (along with real estate) best reflect total private sector activity, grew in all three completed quarters year to date. That tells you something very important: hiccups in monthly data are normal and don’t necessarily mean recession is underway. Perhaps November’s bad data will prove to be the start of a recession this time, but it isn’t guaranteed, and nothing in the data make it likelier to happen now than it was earlier this year.

As for stocks, at the risk of playing a broken record, it is important to remember markets lead the economy. Not the other way around. When a bear market (typically a long market decline worse than -20% with a fundamental cause) and recession strike near each other, stocks typically register the downturn before it shows in economic data. Or, much more simply, the bear market starts before the recession is apparent. Sometimes stocks peak well before output does, seeing the downturn’s leading indicators and pricing in the eventual impact on corporate earnings. This year, the S&P 500’s bear market began on January 3. The low, to date, is October 12. During that span, stocks fell -24.5% in total return terms.[x] That magnitude of a drop is quite consistent with what we would expect ahead of a mild recession.

So ask yourself: If stocks have already done what they usually do ahead of a recession, how much genuine, negative surprise power do bad data have on a forward-looking basis? The latest Wall Street Journal survey, conducted in October, showed economists see a 63% chance of recession in the next year.[xi] Bank of America’s December fund manager survey showed similar expectations. The latest Fed forecasts, released yesterday, penciled in modest GDP growth for 2023, but most observers keyed in on the forecasted rise in the unemployment rate to presume policymakers anticipate an early-year downturn. Stocks aren’t blind to any of this. Nor have they ignored financial headlines’ many, many warnings that rapid inflation and high energy prices risked wrecking consumer spending, investment and the economy at large. If all of these fears have weighed on stocks this year, as we think they have, what is left?

Consider a possibility headlines don’t spend much time on: that a run of bad data ends the uncertainty over whether or not a recession happens. Investors see the extent of the damage and see their fears as confirmed. Perversely, that helps them move on, and stocks start pre-pricing the eventual recovery. We aren’t saying this is a for-sure outcome, and we aren’t forecasting a recession. Rather, we are illustrating a very common thing in markets, which is that the thing everyone fears actually happens, but stocks don’t react the way everyone expected them to, because they pre-priced the fear. That is a possibility now. Another possibility is that the US avoids recession, with ongoing double-digit loan growth continuing to power spending and investment, defying all the dread in the process. After all, it would be highly unusual for a recession to begin when lending is so abundant, considering lent funds don’t sit gathering dust. They circulate, fueling activity—and growth. That would beat today’s dreary expectations, also laying the foundation for a stock market recovery.

Mentally connecting bad data and a bad day for stocks will blind folks to these alternate potential outcomes, which is a big reason we suggest not doing it. Financial headline writers are in the business of making these connections. Sometimes they are right, capturing the day’s sentiment, and sometimes stocks fall just because it is Thursday. Short-term moves are always fickle, often illogical and never predictable. Heck, it is entirely possible that while everyone was looking at the data, stocks were registering their disapproval of the big potential overhaul to market-making rules that regulators unveiled yesterday. There are always numerous potential explanations for any single day’s market movement, good or bad.

This is why we always encourage folks to think longer term and not get hung up on the daily swings. Dwelling on the ups and downs risks triggering short-sighted decisions. Thinking longer-term and remembering your goals and needs—why you are investing in the first place—is the best way we know to capture the market’s long-term returns."

MY COMMENT

A message that I repeat here over, and over, and over. The markets are NOT the economy. The short term headlines and speculative opinions of the writers and so called "experts" are NOT fact. Often they are simply short term trading manipulation (legal)......or......self fulfilling prophesy by the micro-second AI trading systems.

IGNORE IT ALL.

 

One take on the Christmas retail situation. Of course......it is easier and much more accurate to simply wait for the REAL DATA.

This holiday shopping season isn't looking great for retailers: Morning Brief

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/this...at-for-retailers-morning-brief-103001236.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"So there I am on Super Saturday — the final big shopping day before Christmas — at my local Target.

My first two thoughts: Why isn’t this store more crowded? And why is there still so much inventory left in this store, especially in seasonal categories such as holiday cards, toys, and party clothing?

While this is just one anecdotal example from one discount retailer in a New York suburb, I think it’s safe to say the holiday shopping season hasn’t turned out like most retailers expected.

Not that expectations were super high headed into the holidays after lackluster third quarter results for most retailers. But sales and margins may even fall short of lowered projections amid consumers keeping one eye on a potential 2023 recession and the other eye on stubbornly high prices (even when factoring in the typical holiday discounts, which have been plenty this year).

A renewed stretch of stock market selling is unlikely helping spending appetite, either.

Here are some other observations on the holidays probably being a letdown for retailers:

• United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told me last week that he is seeing “pre-recessionary” trends in his business. Demand is still strong (as seen in rival Delta’s strong guidance last week), but forward looking bookings may be softening.
  
  
• Costco (aka the 2022 Yahoo Finance Company of the Year) CEO Craig Jelinek told me he is seeing mixed sales trends in larger ticket, discretionary categories such as TVs and jewelry. I did like what Signet CEO (Kay’s, Jared’s) Gina Drosos told us on demand, however.
  
  
• Specialty apparel retailer Express disappointed investors this month with its results and outlook. CEO Tim Baxter struck a more cautious tone than the norm with yours truly, Julie Hyman, and Brad Smith on Yahoo Finance Live.
  
  
• Earlier this month, VF Corp. (Timberland, North Face, Vans, Dickies) warned on its results smack in the middle of the holiday shopping season.
  
  
• Lululemon’s fourth quarter guidance a few weeks back came in short of estimates.
  
  
• The November retail sales report last week was a bomb. A new Gallup poll suggests consumers have cut back on their holiday spending budgets compared to a couple months ago.
  
  
• Big-name retail stocks such as Walmart and Target have under-performed the S&P 500 in the past month. “Our description of a 'consumer-led' recession is consistent with an ongoing underweight call on consumer discretionary,” Citi strategist Scott Chronert pointed out in a new note over the weekend.

The next litmus test comes with Nike’s earnings due out on Tuesday after the closing bell.

Overall, I think retailers are sitting on lackluster holiday quarters and that estimates for most in the space remain too high. Pick your retail stocks carefully here, or not at all.

Happy Holidays and as always, Happy Trading!"

MY COMMENT

LOL.......I actually dont think any of the above has a thing to do with the Christmas shopping results. NONE of it has anything to do with what we might see from online sales either.

So NO......I dont believe or accept the SCARY headline.....even if in the end it turns out to be true.

Skimming through article headlines last night.......there was MASSIVE negativity. Nearly uniform. They were so negative.....there is no way it can be accurate. A perfect contrary indicator.

 

One bit of very good news. There are really nice rates on CD's and other safe investments right now for non-risk money or for people that need their money to produce a secure and safe income. We will see even better rates over the next 4-6 months as the FED increases rates into the new year. It has been a very long time since investors that want safe income have had rates this good.

 

I will not be posting anything this morning after the open. I have a 4 hour drive ahead of me to a local college for art purposes. I will be hitting the road right after the open.

SO......you all......MAKE ME SOME MONEY TODAY.

 

This is exactly the sort of company I WILL NOT use for anything or in any way. Not a pretty picture for Crypto traders that value FUNDAMENTAL information......as to the safety of their holdings.

Special Report: Binance's books are a black box, filings show, as it tries to rally confidence

https://www.reuters.com/technology/...ypto-giant-tries-rally-confidence-2022-12-19/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

(ALL.....the information below is simply......"alleged".....since this company is not public)

"LONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The world's biggest crypto exchange, Binance, is battling to shore up confidence after a surge in customer withdrawals and a steep drop in the value of its digital token.

The exchange said it dealt with net outflows of around $6 billion over 72 hours last week "without breaking stride" because its finances are solid and "we take our responsibility as a custodian seriously." After the collapse of rival exchange FTX last month, Binance's founder Changpeng Zhao promised his company would "lead by example" in embracing transparency.

Yet a Reuters analysis of Binance's corporate filings shows that the core of the business – the giant Binance.com exchange that has processed trades worth over $22 trillion this year – remains mostly hidden from public view.

Binance declines to say where Binance.com is based. It doesn't disclose basic financial information such as revenue, profit and cash reserves. The company has its own crypto coin, but doesn't reveal what role it plays on its balance sheet. It lends customers money against their crypto assets and lets them trade on margin, with borrowed funds. But it doesn't detail how big those bets are, how exposed Binance is to that risk, or the full extent of its reserves to finance withdrawals.

Binance is not required to publish detailed financial statements because it is not a public company, unlike U.S. rival Coinbase, which is listed on the Nasdaq. Nor has Binance raised outside capital since 2018, industry data show, which means it hasn't had to share financial information with external investors since then.

And as Reuters reported in October, Binance has actively avoided oversight. Zhao approved a plan by lieutenants to "insulate" Binance's main operation from U.S. regulatory scrutiny by setting up a new American exchange, according to company messages and interviews with former employees, advisers and business associates. Zhao denied signing off on the plan and said the unit was set up with advice from top law firms.

Binance's huge role in the crypto market – it accounts for over half of all trading volume – has made its operations a keen topic of interest for U.S. regulators. The company is under investigation by the U.S. Justice Department for possible money-laundering and sanctions violations, and Reuters reported this month that some prosecutors believe they have gathered sufficient evidence to charge Binance and some top executives.

In an effort to look inside Binance's books, Reuters reviewed filings by Binance units in 14 jurisdictions where the exchange on its website says it has "regulatory licenses, registrations, authorisations and approvals." These locations include several European Union states, Dubai and Canada. Zhao has described the authorisations as milestones in Binance's "journey to being fully licensed and regulated around the world."

The filings show that these units appear to have submitted scant information about Binance's business to authorities. The public filings do not show, for example, how much money flows between the units and the main Binance.com exchange. The Reuters analysis also found that several of the units appear to have little activity.

Former regulators and ex-Binance executives say these local businesses serve as window dressing for the main unregulated exchange.

"They are co-opting the nomenclature of regulation to create a veneer of legitimacy," said John Reed Stark, a former chief of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's Office of Internet Enforcement. Stark said Binance's operations were more opaque even than those of FTX. "There is absolutely no transparency, no sunlight, no confirmation of any kind about its financial position."

Binance Chief Strategy Officer Patrick Hillmann said the Reuters analysis of the units' filings in the 14 jurisdictions was "categorically false." "The amount of corporate and financial information that has to be disclosed to regulators in those markets is immense, often requiring a six-month-long disclosure process," he said. "We are a private company and are not required to publicize our corporate finances," he continued, comparing the exchange to privately-held firms such as U.S. candy maker Mars. In a statement, Mars said it was "absurd" to compare its corporate governance and financial reporting requirements with Binance's, adding that its goods and services are "highly regulated."

Hillmann also noted that FTX's founder stands accused by U.S. authorities of fraud. If those allegations are true, he said, "it would have been fraud regardless of what regulations were in place."

PIECES OF A JIGSAW

Binance's surge in outflows last week was attributed by analysts to concern over how crypto exchanges hold user funds and the Reuters report on the DOJ investigation. The exchange also halted withdrawals of some crypto tokens. On Friday, Binance's attempts to reassure investors were set back when an accounting firm it hired to verify its reserves suspended all work for crypto firms.

There are glimpses of Binance's finances in public comments by Zhao, past company statements, blockchain data and venture capital deals.

Binance has said it has over 120 million users. Its trading volumes totalled $34 trillion in 2021, Zhao said in June. He told an interviewer last month that "90-something percent" of Binance's revenues depend on crypto trading. The company is profitable and has "fairly large cash reserves," he added. Binance has made over 150 venture investments totalling $1.9 billion since 2018, according to PitchBook data. Zhao also created a $1 billion fund to invest in struggling crypto companies after the fall of FTX.

Reliable estimates of Binance's trading-dependent revenues are scarce, however, despite the public availability of trading volume data.

Binance charges fees of up to 0.1% on spot trades, with a more complex fee structure for derivatives. On spot trading volume of $4.6 trillion in the year to October, Binance may have earned revenue of up to $4.6 billion, Reuters calculated, based on data from researcher CryptoCompare. Charging fees of up to 0.04% on its derivatives volumes of $16 trillion, Binance may have earned revenues of up to $6.4 billion.

John Todaro, a senior analyst covering crypto and blockchain firms at U.S. investment bank and asset manager Needham & Company, and Joseph Edwards, an independent investment consultant, said the Reuters calculations appeared to be in the right range. Binance's promotions such as zero-fee trading and other discounts may mean the revenues were lower, Edwards said. A third crypto analyst who declined to be named also agreed with the figures.

Binance's Hillmann did not comment on the Reuters estimates. "The vast majority of our revenue is made on transaction fees," he said, adding that the exchange has been able to "accumulate large corporate reserves" by keeping expenses down. Binance's "capital structure is debt free" and the company keeps its money made from fees separate from the assets it buys and holds for users, Hillmann said.

Binance allows users to deposit collateral in the form of crypto and borrow funds to leverage the value of their derivatives trades by as much as 125 times. For the user, this can lead to huge gains or huge losses. Hillmann said Binance backs all user deposits for derivatives and spot trading with its own reserves at a ratio of one to one – meaning deposits should be secure and easy to withdraw. Binance, he said, has strict liquidation protocols that sell off users' positions if their losses exceed their collateral's value. If users' positions become negative "due to extreme market volatility," Binance has "very-well capitalized" insurance funds to cover the deficit, he said. Hillmann did not provide specifics and Reuters could not independently verify all of his statements.

Asked about the scale of any losses at the exchange this year, Hillmann said: "Binance's risk department manages what is one of the industry's most risk-averse programs. This protects our users and our platform."

The guarding of Binance's financial information by Zhao, a Canadian citizen who was born and raised in China, echoes the strict culture of secrecy he has enforced throughout his company's rise, the Reuters report in October showed. The article was one of a series of reports this year by the news agency on Binance's financial compliance and relationship with regulators across the world.

Even Binance's former chief financial officer, Wei Zhou, did not have access to the company's full accounts during his three-year tenure, according to two people who worked with him. Zhou, who left last year, did not respond to requests for comment.


Reuters Graphics
"FULL TRANSPARENCY"
Zhao and other executives have consistently declined to publicly identify which entity controls the main exchange. But in a private court submission filed in 2020 in an arbitration case in the Cayman Islands, Chief Compliance Officer Samuel Lim said it is owned and operated by a Cayman Islands company, Binance Holdings Limited.

This year, Binance has won licenses or approvals from authorities in locations including France, Spain, Italy and Dubai. Zhao lauded these advances, saying in May that Binance's registration as a crypto service provider in Italy would allow it to operate "in full transparency." Yet none of the units registered with local regulators provide a clear window into the main Binance exchange, the Reuters analysis showed.

Reuters asked authorities in all 14 jurisdictions about their oversight of Binance's local units. Of the eight that responded, six – in Spain, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, France and Lithuania – told Reuters their role did not involve supervising the main exchange, and said the units were only required to meet local requirements on reporting suspicious transactions.

Reuters also asked representatives of the local Binance units and affiliates about their relationship with the main Binance exchange. Only one responded, a South African firm called FiveWest. Its managing director, Pierre van Helden, said Cape Town-based FiveWest receives a "minimal yearly license fee" from Binance to facilitate crypto derivatives trading for Binance's South African users.

"How Binance operates globally is unclear to us," van Helden said. He added that Zhao's company was "cooperative" on compliance and said FiveWest has regular meetings to ensure requirements are met.

In Italy, Binance's public corporate filings detail just the unit's capital base and its ownership by a separate Binance company in Ireland. The Italian company, Binance Italy S.R.L., has its listed address in a block of shops and apartments in the southern city of Lecce. It did not respond to a request for comment, nor did the Organismo Agenti e Mediatori authority with which it is registered.

Just two of the Binance units analysed by Reuters offer more substantial details in their filings.

One, a Lithuanian firm called Bifinity UAB, offers the most detailed picture. Bifinity described itself in one regulatory filing as the "official fiat-to-crypto payments provider for Binance." Fiat means dollars, euros and other traditional currencies.

Bifinity also disclosed that Binance and its companies are its "main strategic business partners." In a 2021 annual report, Bifinity reported 137 million euros ($145 million) in net profit and assets of 816 million euros. Bifinity said it had made payments of 421 million euros to a single related party, with some 185 million euros in "related expenses," but did not specify whether this party is Binance.

Bifinity, whose annual report said it has 147 employees, does not have a website or publicly provide any contact details. The company's chief executive, Saulius Galatiltis, did not respond to requests for comment. At its registered address at a business centre in Lithuania's capital Vilnius, Bifinity is not listed on the tenants' board.

The other Binance unit that offers more than barebones financial details is in Spain. It registered in July with the Spanish central bank and reported meagre revenue of some 1.5 million euros last year and a profit of just 9,000 euros. Reuters could not reach anyone from the unit, Binance Spain SL, for comment. A reporter visited its registered address, at a co-working space in Madrid. The receptionist said a small Binance Spain team had relocated a month ago, without leaving contact details.

In the Gulf, Binance has won a license or permission this year in Abu Dhabi, Bahrain and Dubai. Zhao told Bloomberg in March that he will be based for the "foreseeable future" in Dubai. Filings by Binance's Dubai entities give no details of its financial activity or its ties to the main Binance platform.

Even for some employees inside the company, such details were unclear.

Binance didn't disclose global profit figures during its application for a license in Dubai, according to a person with direct knowledge of the application. Nearly all clients in the United Arab Emirates registered with Binance's main exchange, and until at least late summer the licensed Dubai firm was not experiencing significant trading revenues, the person said.

Reuters was not able to contact the unit, Binance FZE, registered to a WeWork office by the Dubai World Trade Centre. Binance's Middle East and North Africa head did not respond to a request for comment. Nor did Dubai's Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority.

"PROOF OF RESERVES"

Many crypto exchanges, including Binance competitors Huobi and OKX, operate from offshore locations such as the Seychelles – as did Bahamas-based FTX. Standards on corporate transparency and financial reporting are typically looser in such jurisdictions than in the United States.

Coinbase (COIN.O), the biggest U.S. exchange, listed on Wall Street in 2021. Like other public companies, it must file audited quarterly earnings statements and annual financial reports. In its latest earnings statement, Coinbase reported data including revenue, profit, cash holdings and trading volumes.

"It's really night and day," said Mark Palmer, head of digital assets research at U.S. financial services firm BTIG, of the difference between disclosures by a listed company and other offshore exchanges.

"Coinbase is a publicly traded company and is required to share that information with investors, whereas we are a private company and do not have public investors to whom we are beholden," Binance's Hillmann said. "The main reason to go public is to raise money, but as Binance doesn't need to raise money, there is no need to go public at this time."

A Coinbase spokesman, Elliott Suthers, said the company's financials were reviewed quarterly by Deloitte, one of the "Big Four" accounting firms, "so customers don't have to rely on our word." "We believe exchanges have a responsibility to share their financials with their customers," Suthers said. "We encourage other exchanges to take this same approach."

Some privately held exchanges reveal financial data during fundraising, as did FTX prior to its collapse. Binance, however, has not raised money from outside investors since 2018, according to data from business information provider Crunchbase. "We do not have VC investments, so we don't owe anybody any money," Zhao told CNBC on Dec. 15.

U.S. prosecutors last week charged FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried with defrauding equity investors and customers of billions of dollars. It has emerged that money was secretly moving from FTX to Bankman-Fried's hedge fund, Alameda Research, which functioned as a market maker, a dealer that deepens liquidity by buying and selling the same assets.

Reuters could not determine if Binance or Zhao also own any market-making firms that operate on its platform. In December 2020, the SEC issued a subpoena to Binance.US, the separate American exchange, requesting it provide information about all its market makers, their owners, and their trading activity.

As part of a "commitment to transparency," Binance last month published on its website a "snapshot" of its holdings of six major tokens and promised to share a complete set of data at an unspecified future date.

Data firm Nansen said the holdings, worth around $70 billion at the time of the Nov. 10 snapshot, had fallen to $54.7 billion by Dec. 17 after withdrawals and price fluctuations. Two "stablecoins" that are pegged to the dollar – Binance's BUSD and market leader Tether – accounted for almost half of its holdings. Around 9% of the assets were in BNB, its in-house token which Binance itself has issued, the Nansen data showed.

BNB is the fifth-largest crypto coin in circulation with a market value of around $40 billion, industry data show. Holders of the token receive discounts on Binance's trading fees. Zhao has said that Binance does not use BNB as collateral. Alameda used FTX's in-house FTT token as collateral when borrowing from FTX and other lenders.

After FTX's collapse, Zhao said audits of crypto exchanges were not guaranteed to prevent bankruptcies. "More audits are really good, but I'm not sure if they would prevent this particular case," he told a TechCrunch interviewer.

Zhao told a conference in April that Binance is "fully audited." Asked by the Financial Times who was auditing Binance's financial results and balance sheet, Zhao said the company had "multiple auditors in multiple places … I don't have all of the list in my head."

He now advocates so-called "proof-of-reserves" checks on the crypto holdings of exchanges. The system is supposed to allow users to confirm that their holdings are included in checks of blockchain data and that the exchange's reserves match clients' assets.

Binance hired accounting firm Mazars to check Binance's bitcoin holdings. The firm examined the holdings as they existed at the end of one day in November. In a Dec. 7 report, Mazars found that Binance's bitcoin assets exceeded its customer bitcoin liabilities. It said the check, known as an "agreed-upon procedures engagement," was "not an assurance engagement" in which auditors personally sign off on their attestations of accounts. Nevertheless, Zhao tweeted, "Audited proof of reserves. Transparency."

Mazars later deleted the webpage containing the report. Its communications director, Josh Voulters, said on Friday it had "paused" its proof-of-reserves checks for crypto firms "due to concerns regarding the way these reports are understood by the public." Voulters didn't respond to requests for more detail.

While this checking system offers a degree of insight into an exchange's reserves, it's no substitute for a full audit, seven analysts, lawyers and accountancy experts told Reuters.

In offering only a limited snapshot of an exchange's crypto, the system lacks safeguards, two lawyers said. Others said it could not yield the same level of detail on corporate finances as a traditional audit.

"In terms of the balance sheet from Binance, there really is no colour," said Todaro, the analyst at Needham & Company."

MY COMMENT

I am NOT into Crypto. BUT......If I was I would NOT have my money at this sort of company. There are good public alternatives here in the good old USA.....such as COINBASE.

This would make me very nervous if I had a bunch of money in an account here in addition to the total lack of transparency:

"Binance allows users to deposit collateral in the form of crypto and borrow funds to leverage the value of their derivatives trades by as much as 125 times."

In my opinion LEVERAGE combined with the wild west atmosphere of the Crypto markets and investors......is a HUGE risk.

In addition.......I also.....do not like the previous (alleged) connection to China.

 

Speaking of Binance.....one thing that really CREEPS ME OUT.....are the constant photos of Zhao all over the internet and in nearly every article about the company......of him wearing a black hoodie.

This is simply a "costume". I dont believe this is what he would choose to wear....in the slightest. It is simply a BLATANT PR ......."COSTUME". It is PHONY.......it is an act for the media.

 

New day today.....same market based....supposedly.....on the same old excuses we have been seeing for months. We are stuck in a GROUNDHOG DAY market.

I was RED today......a perfect day.....every stock down. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.80%.

EIGHT DAYS left in the countdown to year end and freedom from year 2022.

 

I tend to agree with this little article.

The inflation tide has turned — no thanks to the Fed

https://nypost.com/2022/12/13/the-inflation-tide-has-turned-no-thanks-to-the-fed/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Abundant emerging signs show that the inflation war is won — no thanks to the Fed.

The Federal Reserve rate-hike fixation will run wild on Wednesday, with tongues wagging over what they do and say. That likely stokes short-term volatility — up, down or both. But the fact is, their words are pretty much worthless.

In May, Fed Chairman Jay Powell said, “a 75-basis-point increase is not something that the Committee is actively considering.” They hiked that much in each of their next four meetings. In July, he disdained “forward guidance” — yet Fed officials keep jawboning openly.

Ignore the Fed fixation. They don’t know what they will do. How could you?

Instead, think input costs. First, let me note that “winning” doesn’t mean returning to pre-2022 consumer prices. That would require deflation from here — consumer prices widely falling. We don’t do that. Ever. “Winning” means inflation slowing to past, tolerable levels.

Indications of that — yet to show in stores — abound. Seeing them means fixating on the input costs that competitive commerce turns into final consumer prices.

Take crude oil’s price, an obviously important input. It surged after Russia invaded Ukraine. But after March’s peak, supply channels shifted, production grew and oil prices slowly stumbled — now off 42% to December 2021 levels. Energy helped drive a spike in consumer prices, but will now nudge us toward stability.


The price of crude oil peaked in March but has steadily fallen after production grew.
COVID-era supply chain snafus are abating everywhere. Shanghai freight rates fell 77% from January’s high. America’s logistics managers’ index revealed transportation prices contracting while capacity remains ample.

Recall that used car prices soared earlier this year as chip shortages stalled new car output. But Manheim’s wholesale used car price index is now down 15.6% from January’s record to August 2021 levels. Dealer prices don’t show progress yet. They will.

Food? The Ukraine invasion fueled shortage fears, spiking global prices. Now wheat prices are half March’s highs. November’s UN World Food Price Index rose just 0.3% year-over-year, erasing 2022’s spike.
Housing is CPI’s biggest component. You know home price gains are cooling. You may not know home prices lead rents by roughly 15 months. Zillow’s data show sharply slowing rent increases. More soon.
Some say spiking government spending drove inflation. Maybe. In the 12 months through October, Uncle Sam spent $5.76 trillion. Huge, but 24% below February 2021’s $7.62 trillion high.

Many claim excess money supply growth causes inflation. I’m sympathetic. But note: US M4 — the broadest measure of that, including currency, deposit accounts, money funds and cash-like securities — grew 30.8% year-over-year in June 2020. Now it’s 0.1%.

Others fret that tight labor markets are propelling inflation. Wrong. Nobel laureate Milton Friedman long ago proved wages follow prices — always — not the reverse. Regardless, payroll gains have slowed significantly.

These improvements largely stem from supply catching up after COVID-era disruptions. They aren’t signs the Fed is succeeding.

Monetary policy hits the economy later by affecting lending via nudging banks’ overnight borrowing costs. Banks borrow short-term funds to finance longer-term loans. Fed hikes theoretically make banks’ overnight funding costlier, reducing profitability and volume, slowing the economy.

Not now. Despite the Fed’s hikes, lending accelerated from May’s 5.8% year-over-year to 12.0% now. Why? Banks needn’t borrow overnight reserves. They’re hugely awash in near zero-cost deposits that don’t wiggle with rate hikes. Higher long-term rates make lending more profitable, so more happens.

What the Fed does now, despite the hysteria, mostly just hurts mortgage borrowers, home buyers. But inflation’s input costs, as shown, were improving months before the Fed started going gonzo in June.

We’re like a snake that ate a huge inflation rodent, bulging in the middle. But it passes very soon — unless we eat more."

MY COMMENT

First......I like the last line about the snake. It ties in very nicely with the headlines today about the......$1.7TRILLION government spending bill that is full of pork and goodies for everyone. This will be a RIDICULOUS driver of inflation in the economy.

As to the FED.......they are doing two things with their increases and constant TALKING......crashing housing and crashing stocks and investors. They are removing billions and billions of dollars from everyday people's net worth with their constant focus on crashing the markets. They focus on that because they have become convinced that crashing the stock markets makes them look like they are achieving something.

Unfortunately.....there is nothing any of us can do except sit there and take it.

As to inflation they are doing NOTHING. Inflation is being defeated by the normalizing of the supply chain and other issues STILL plaguing he economy from the government shutting down the economy.

 

A good HOLIDAY and year round lesson.

Save The Ornaments For Your Tree

https://equiuspartners.com/save-the-ornaments-for-your-tree/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"As we enter the holiday season and gather with family and friends, one tradition many of us look forward to is hanging favorite ornaments on a Christmas tree. Ornaments can enrich the beauty of the season and often have wonderful memories attached to them.

After hanging a few of our ornaments, I couldn’t help thinking about the tree and the ornaments as a metaphor for investing. The fact is, last month’s article on FTX is sticking with me. I continue to follow the media’s take on it, and, as usual, it mostly bothers me. But there are so many dimensions to this evolving story that offer valuable lessons, particularly for young investors. I’ll touch on at least one of them in this article.

Which came first, the tree or the ornament?

Most Christmas tree ornaments we save and put up every year have special meanings. They come from kids, grandkids, special teachers, and friends. Some may have been handed down to us from parents and grandparents. They represent cherished memories of loved ones, specific experiences, and special times. Some may express hope under trying circumstances. In other words, there are substance and value in these personal Christmas tree ornaments. They are the focus of this tradition.

The tree on which the ornaments are placed, on the other hand, is often temporary—cut down fresh and then disposed of soon after the season, or artificial and pulled out once a year. It’s rare when one is preserved and replanted.

When we think of this in terms of our investments, our goal should be to start with a very strong living tree that will reliably grow larger and stronger if nurtured prudently over time. It should represent the total economic growth, innovation, and prosperity of free markets around the world. We can add some fertilizer to it to make it stronger and grow larger still (deliberate and managed tilts toward small company and value stocks, for example), but it’s beautiful and bountiful without any additional ornamentation.

Most investors don’t even start with a strong tree, though. All they have are ornaments. Few have any personal meaning, and few survive more than one season. This is certainly true of investing professionals whose mutual funds typically experience 100% or higher turnover every year.

The emotions attached to portfolio ornaments are usually fleeting and not the same as those created bytree ornaments. Fear of missing out, greed, running with the herd (of the moment), ego, bragging rights, and so on do not make for good lasting memories—or sound portfolios. Individuals usually buy hot stocks, or hot mutual funds like Cathy Wood’s ARKK fund, after they’ve reached a certain critical mass of media stories —which means after they have soared in price (that’s why they’re “hot”).

Portfolio ornaments are shiny and super attractive to almost everyone. Highly trained professionals package and market them to be addictive. This is why the majority of investment advisors in this country either sell or “manage” nothing but ornaments.

FTX is a portfolio ornament. So is crypto. So are high-cost hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity for almost all investors. (Sure, billionaires in “the club” can kill it over time by getting in early on deals, but even they occasionally must eat an ornament like FTX. Sequoia Capital’s unprofessional and immature zeal for a dweeb in saggy T-shirts and baggy shorts playing video games while he lied to them is a godsend to the well-connected. I’m guessing they’ll be more professional and mature next time.)

Some portfolio ornaments lose their luster and sit unloved in a box before you can dispose of them. Hedge funds and private real estate partnerships that restrict redemptions are like this. We’re seeing this now with Blackstone’s BREIT, which Jason Zweig called out in a recent Wall Street Journal article.

The most popular portfolio ornaments

The most popular portfolio ornaments are simply individual stocks. In an ever-changing and volatile market environment, there are always stories to tell, brilliance to display, and ego aplenty to drive it all. New ornaments every year. Bigger, shinier!

Sure, some investors catch on to the shallowness of this game eventually and might even at some point understand what the ornaments are costing them vis-àvis a well-managed asset class portfolio. To pacify these troublemakers, at least temporarily, some advisors toss S&P 500 and other “market”-type index funds into portfolios. To these advisors, the index funds are the ornaments. In their minds, these spindly and annoying little trees beneath the stack of pretty ornaments are targeted for disposal at some point— usually right before the end of a bull market when their portfolios are highly concentrated in high-priced, big-name growth stocks, and they appear to clients as stock-picking heroes.

But what if the portfolio ornament came from Grandma and Grandpa?

A portfolio ornament might be a gift from a parent or grandparent, and for that reason—and that reason alone—it might be worth keeping. But the risk of financial loss should also be considered. Do you think the giver would be happier if you kept those shares of General Electric despite the very real risk that their value could significantly decline at any time or if you took the proceeds and converted them into something even more meaningful? A more substantive legacy of the loved one other than the stock of a giant corporation they worked at for 40 years, perhaps? A trip with friends or family? A charity? A college fund?

If not “invested” immediately in great memories, why not better preserve the value with a diversified portfolio targeted for future plans? Portfolio ornaments are virtually guaranteed to detract from the value of a well-diversified, low-cost, asset class portfolio. We know this from study after study over the past four decades that explain why this is the case.

Beware the “influencers”

Many young people today are tempted by the fame and fortune of social media “influencers” to buy virtually anything. Spending thousands of dollars on cosmetics or athletic footwear is one thing—more akin to buying Christmas tree ornaments. But betting tens of thousands of dollars on crypto, FTX-type stocks, meme stocks, or any other speculation-of-the-day scheme because some YouTube star said so just strikes me as total madness. Social media has become the modern Gen Z version of Wall Street to create and promote expensive portfolio ornaments.

These financial influencers are called “finfluencers.” (I’m guessing words like hustlers, charlatans, con artists, and manipulators didn’t test well among the marketing consultants.)

In any case, finfluencers are gaining traction with Gen Z—despite the consistent collapse of their best recommendations. These hucksters are essentially unregulated promoters who are paid huge sums to fling BS with a smile and a deceptive air of authority and expertise.

A great example of this is Kevin Paffrath, aka “Meet Kevin.” Paffrath is a YouTube star who, according to The Wall Street Journal, made $22 million in 2021 alone promoting all kinds of shiny portfolio ornaments —like FTX. Paffrath is like an old-school stockbroker on steroids. But the wealth destruction he causes is vast and mostly affects people who can least afford the losses.

Watch this smirky punk dance around his disclaimers in a YouTube video (I particularly like how he emphasizes SEC in yellow) to promote his new idea—an innovation ETF with “AMAZING” tax benefits. Sound like Cathy Wood’s ARKK fund? Yep. Here’s the link: *JUST* Invested $1 Million into THIS Stock.

The video is exhausting. I tried to watch it and had to stop after about five minutes. Especially when Kevvy secured the symbol for his new ETF and actually said, “In this video I’d like to explain why I’m launching my PP.” My head was ready to explode, and I still need my head. Have I used the word “immature” already in this article? WTH is going on with our culture!?

Enough of the madness

I know some of the reasons we gather during the holidays are to enjoy family, renew friendships, and consider deeper meanings to our life (love, religion, spirituality, charity, and so on). We’ve pretty much all had it with discussing Covid and politics, right?

But if you find the opportunity, why not talk about the destruction social media influencers can—and do— have on the younger generations? It’s not just the financial hucksters, but all of those who elevate materialism, fear of missing out, envy, and greed ahead of common sense, humility, and living a truly meaningful life."

MY COMMENT

The advent of social media and the.....INFLUENCERS......is a total PLAGUE on young investors. BEWARE. If you are a new or yung investor....study the tried and true. Study what is old-fashioned. Study the investing greats of the past. Study anything that has to do with FUNDAMENTAL INVESTING.

 

I have been avoiding commenting on the markets today.....they ARE green so far. They seem to be very slowly improving as the day goes on.

Keep your fingers crossed. We have now had FOUR down days in a row.......and we are on track to LOSE about 6%......in general......for the month of December.

After today.....SEVEN.....more market days in 2022......HALLELUJAH.

 

HERE is the day so far. Looking forward to my NIKE earnings at the close today.

Stocks rise as Wall Street aims to snap losing streak

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-20-2022-112641416.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks turned higher Tuesday as investors attempted to thwart losses from stretching into a fifth day.

A hawkish move by the Bank of Japan to adjust the cap on its 10-year government bond yield rattled markets in early trading, with investors worried aggressive monetary tightening by central banks around the world may cause a global recession. Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and others raised interest rates.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC), Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) were each up roughly 0.4% as of 10:30 a.m. ET. On Monday, all three major averages sank to their lowest closes in six weeks, with the S&P 500 weighed down by declines of more than 1% for Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOG).

In bond markets, U.S. Treasury yields extended an ascent, with the benchmark 10-year note rising above 3.67%.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index slipped against a spike in the Japanese yen that followed the Bank of Japan's rate decision. Oil nudged higher, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures up a modest 0.5%.

Expectations for an extensive period of restrictive monetary policy and the likelihood of a recession as a result have dashed investor hopes for a year-end rally. December is a historically bullish month for the stock market, but it appears to be anything but this season, with stocks on a steady downtrend after an upbeat October and November.

“With inflation expected to remain higher than the past decade and money supply still near a record high, there is still too much liquidity that needs to be drained,” Verdence Capital Management Chief Investment Officer Megan Horneman said in a note. “This means that the days of the Fed coming in and cutting rates to zero at any sign of economic weakness are behind us.

“Instead, expect more volatility in economic growth and potentially more frequent mild recessions over the next decade,” she added.

Investors digested a new batch of housing data Tuesday showing that housing starts and permits for future home construction declined as higher mortgage rates continued to slow activity in the market.

On the earnings side, results from Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX) are due out after the close."

MY COMMENT

SAME OLD......same old. Nothing new in the slightest. I doubt any professionals are working on Wall Street today and the rest of the week. We will be in a low volume situation.