The Long Term Investor

I dont know if anyone will say it....but congress.....BOTH PARTIES......are in the process of SCREWING a large percentage of the American public. Anyone that takes out a mortgage, has credit card debt or other debt, has a retirement or stock account, etc, etc, etc. They are giving you and the FED one big finger for Christmas with a $1.7TRILLION BLOATED PORK FILLED spending bill.

In the end this will KILL anything the FED has achieved up to now by causing more and more inflation. It will lead to higher rates for a much longer time. It will raise rates on mortgages, credit cards, loans and other debt and will contribute to more stock account losses going forward......MERRY CHRISTMAS......from your MORONS in Washington DC.

 

BAH HUMBUG.....I say Congress tanked the markets today. I was in the RED with only ONE stock up today......NIKE. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.71%.

I paid ZERO attention to the markets today. We had family here in the morning and spent the afternoon at the barn securing the horses (blankets, feed, water, etc) since we are in for a BIG FREEZE around here. We left for the barn at about 12:00 and it was 59 degrees.....2.5 hours later it was about 32 degrees.

 

A nice little article.

What to Make of Recent Wintertime Blues

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ntary/what-to-make-of-recent-wintertime-blues

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The latest sentiment measures confirm moods are down—what does that mean for markets?

It seems 2023 can’t come soon enough for investors. Global stocks are down this month, and based on the latest sentiment gauges, wintertime blues are prevalent. Down moods are understandable, but in our view, it is crucial to remember feelings alone don’t predict the economy or stocks.

The recent spate of sentiment surveys in the US and overseas showed some minor improvements, but the picture remains dour overall. Bank of America’s December fund manager survey found a majority of investors (68%) think recession is likely in the next 12 months, easing a bit from November’s 77%. A recent Wall Street Journal poll noted 67% of surveyed US voters think the economy is in bad shape—slightly better than October’s 72% read—with 52% projecting worsening conditions over the next year.[ii]

Across the pond, research firm GfK reported its UK consumer-confidence barometer improved to -42 in December from November’s -44.[iii] This was the 8th straight monthly reading of -40 or worse—a first since GfK’s records begin almost 50 years ago—as some slight improvement in their view of next year’s general economic situation didn’t prevent consumers from feeling down about their personal finances. The Ifo institute announced German business morale was better than expected in December, with expectations rising to 83.2 from November’s 80.2, and though economists acknowledged recession odds fell a bit, a downturn is still the baseline expectation.[iv]

Now, sentiment measures can do a great job showing respondents’ feelings in the moment, but we have found they are coincident indicators at best—not revealing about future activity. Feelings are fickle, and moods can change based on a multitude of reasons, from reading something on Twitter to experiencing a personal, real-life event (e.g., receiving a pay raise or lack thereof). For an illustrative hypothetical example, consider someone who reads an article about weaker-than-expected Black Friday sales right before taking a December survey. That news may dampen her mood, so she responds she is less optimistic about the economy in the coming months. But what if the next day she visits her favorite retail shop, serendipitously finds a deal on a big-ticket item on her wish list and ends up purchasing it? This is only a hypothetical, but our research shows consumer sentiment doesn’t indicate much about consumer spending.

Taking this concept more broadly, feelings about the future don’t tell you much about upcoming economic growth. Take the widely watched, US-focused University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey, which asks myriad questions—including one about expected business conditions in the next 12 months. As Exhibit 1 shows, extreme lows usually occur during recessions—not before—and there are plenty of big declines during economic expansions.

Exhibit 1: Expected Business Conditions Aren’t Predictive, US Edition



Source: FactSet, as of 12/19/2022. University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – Business Conditions Expected During the Next Year, monthly, January 1978 – November 2022. Recession dating based on NBER business cycle dates.

This isn’t just a US phenomenon—see Germany, Europe’s largest economy. In the ZEW economic sentiment index, negative readings indicate a majority of surveyed analysts have a pessimistic view of the German economy over the next six months. As Exhibit 2 shows, yes, there are times when pessimistic expectations seemed to align with the start of recession. But there are also other times when views were negative and Germany didn’t enter recession, including the past decade.

Exhibit 2: Expected Business Conditions Aren’t Predictive, German Edition


Source: FactSet, as of 12/19/2022. ZEW Financial Market Survey – Economic Expectations, December 1992 – November 2022. German recession dating based on German Council of Economic Experts.

It isn’t a shock people are moody now amid grim forecasts, feared energy shortages and deteriorating economic data. But sentiment surveys just reflect all of this widely known information—they don’t say anything new or what will happen. What actually happens over the next 3 – 30 months and how that squares with these dour expectations is what will move stocks, in our view."

MY COMMENT

These sentiment surveys are just a hindsight beauty contest. Basically meaningless. In my view.....the worse they are.....the better the future for an investor.

 

I guess this is what happened today.....as I said......I IGNORED it all.

Stocks tank as December selling accelerates

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-22-2022-124242344.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks plunged Thursday as December's sell-off intensified after a fleeting rally in the previous session.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed down 1.4% after dropping as much as 2.8% in afternoon trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 350 points, or 1%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tumbled 2.2%.

Losses picked up after veteran hedge fund manager David Tepper said in a televised interview with CNBC that he is “leaning short on the equity markets” over concerns rising interest rates will further batter stocks.

Poor results from Micron Technology (MU) also soured the mood. The largest U.S. manufacturer of memory chips warned of a glut in the semiconductor market and forecast a wider-than-expected second-quarter loss as a result. The company revealed a series of cost-cutting measures to help offset an expected drop in revenue, including a 10% reduction in its workforce. Shares fell 3.4% on Thursday.

Tesla's stock (TSLA) cratered 8.9%, deepening steep declines for the electric vehicle giant, which is now down more than 68% this year.

Selling pressures have intensified for Tesla this month, with investors concerned that CEO Elon Musk's management of Twitter was distracting him from leadership responsibilities at the electric carmaker. According to Bloomberg, 10 analysts have cut their price targets on the stock since last week.

On Thursday morning, the company also said it was offering U.S. consumers a $7,500 discount on its two highest-volume models before year-end, a move seen as an attempt to tackle waning demand.

AMC's (AMC) stock sank 7.5% Thursday after the cinema operator proposed a reverse stock split and a conversion of its preferred equity units into common shares. AMC was halted for volatility in the early minutes of trading.

CarMax (KMX) shares fell 3.6% after the company reported an 86% drop in third-quarter profit, while indicating it was also halting share buybacks, pausing hiring and cutting expenses.

Meanwhile, Under Armour (UA) named Marriott International President Stephanie Linnartz its next chief executive officer, concluding a seven-month search for a new leader. Linnartz, who was one of 60 candidates under consideration, is expected to assume the post Feb. 27, according to the company. Under Armour’s stock edged down 1.7% Thursday.

The moves come after all three major averages booked gains of at least 1.5% on Wednesday, boosted by a rebound in consumers' attitudes on the economy and upbeat earnings from Nike (NKE) that temporarily curbed fears around the corporate outlook.

On the economic data front, filings for unemployment insurance ticked up slightly to 216,000 in the week ended Dec. 17, the Labor Department said Thursday, a modest increase from the prior week's upwardly revised 214,000.

In commodities markets, oil prices swung ahead of wintry weather in the U.S. and forecasts of a storm moving toward North America. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures – the U.S. benchmark – closed down at $78.26 after rising earlier in the day.

“Energy stocks again have a spring in their step, thanks to a rise in crude prices for the fourth straight session amid expectations of higher demand over the holiday period,” Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown said in an emailed note. “But gains are being capped by concerns lingering in the background about world economic prospects next year.”

In cryptoworld, events in the saga of fallen cryptocurrency exchange FTX continued to unfold. FTX co-founder and former CTO Gary Wang and former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison pleaded guilty late Wednesday to charges related to their roles in fraud that contributed to the collapse of the company.

Disgraced former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was released on $250 million bail Thursday afternoon while he awaits trial on fraud charges related to the collapse of his crypto exchange.

Investors are waiting to see whether a Santa Claus rally — a seasonal rise in the stock market that tends to occur around the end of December – will happen this year. But a downbeat month so far plagued by worries over inflation, rising interest rates, and the likelihood of a recession have thrown a wrench in hopes for year-end gains.

“We think the economy and the markets are merely recalibrating to higher interest rates and to slower growth,” BMO Wealth Management Chief Investment Strategist Yung-Yu Ma said in a note, pointing to record stimulus and economic momentum in 2021 that led to higher inflation.

“All that reversing a created year in 2022 where there was really a pullback.” Ma said. “As a result, we expect 2023 to be a recalibration to what we consider normal times.”"

MY COMMENT

The GREAT UNMENTIONABLE.....the HOGS at the trough in Congress lapping up the money......no doubt played a big role today. Just what we do not need.......a MASSIVE spending and stimulus bill. Talk about screwing the poor FED and the people.

I love that bail for SBF.......$250MILLION.......of other peoples money.......as if he has any assets that are actually his. Although the actual amount put up for a bond is probably about 10% or less of that amount.

If I had some money to invest.....I would probably be averaging into TESLA over the next 4-8 weeks. The current and near future price seems....way out of line. BUT.....when those in power decide to try to cancel someone......this is what happens.......short term.

NICE....of Tepper to tank the markets.....no doubt in support of his short bets. IDIOCY on the part of the markets to take this manipulative BAIT.

 

At least we are now down to the final FIVE DAYS for the markets in 2022......good riddance. We started this year in the TRASH after a great 2021......and we are ending the same way. A totally wasted year.....for NO good reason. The random nature of the short term markets.

SO.....I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

I like this CHRISTMAS MESSAGE.

"The holidays are a great time to be thankful, spend time with loved ones, review your year, and show gratitude for all of the blessings you’ve had throughout the year.

Since I’m in the Christmas spirit, I wanted to give you a fun new take on an old Christmas carol called, “The 12 Days of Rule #1 Investing”.

Investing is truly the gift that keeps on giving - compound interest, returns, and dividends.

Instead of Partridges in pear trees and turtle doves how about we give gifts that will make you rich and keep on giving you more money for the rest of your life.


The 12 Days of Rule #1 Investing Infographic



Let’s Recap
Day 1: Don’t Lose Money - That is Rule #1. Rule #2? Don’t forget Rule #1.

Day 2: Pay Off All Bad Debt - You are losing money on high interest payments!

Day 3: Live Within Your Means - You don’t need that new car or expensive house!

Day 4: Remember The 4M’s - Moat, Management, Meaning, & Margin of Safety.

Day 5: Find The Big Five Numbers - ROIC, Sales, EPS, Equity, & Operating Cash Flow.

Day 6: Read And Do Your Research - Gather knowledge on companies before investing.

Day 7: Know Your Retirement Number - How much will you need to retire comfortably?

Day 8: Coattail The Best Investors - What would Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger do?

Day 9: Pay Yourself First - Set aside a percentage from each paycheck first.

Day 10: Invest In What You Know - Make sure you can understand what you’re buying.

Day 11: Buy Fear, Sell Greed - Stay rational, be patient, and don’t be greedy.

Day 12: Always Be Grateful - Be truly thankful. Do it 1,000 times a day.


Happy Holidays, Now Go Play."

https://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/how-to-invest/12-days-of-investing-infographic/

 

AND......this is a Christmas classic from the past.

"Twas the night before Christmas, when all through Wall Street,

Not a guru was stirring, ‘mongst the trading elite.

The stocks were all laid on the exchange floor with care,

In hopes that a bull market soon would be there.

The brokers were nestled all snug in their beds,

While visions of stock gains danced in their heads.

Readers in ‘kerchiefs, and I in my cap,

We all settled our brains for a long winter’s nap.

When out on the Street there arose such a clatter,

I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.

Away to the window I flew like a flash,

Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.

The moon on the marble of the NYSE,

Gave the lustre of mid-day to the powers that be.

When, what with my wondering eyes should I spy,

But a mischievous stockbroker yelling, “Sell!” and, “Buy!”

With his sly little grin, he looked quite like trouble,

I knew in a moment it must be a bubble.

More rapid than eagles his stock picks they came,

And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name!

"Now Groupon! Now, Zynga! Pandora and LinkedIn!

Someday maybe Facebook for money to be sinked in!

To the top of the market! To the top of the Wall!

Now buy them up! Buy them up! Buy them up all!"

As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,

When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky.

So up to IPOs the troubled stocks flew,

Into portfolios of junk bonds and ETFs too.

Just then, in a twinkling, I heard in the dark,

People shouting and drumming in Zucotti Park.

As I drew in my head, and was turning around,

Down the chimney a Stock Market Santa did bound!

He was dressed all in red, from his head to his foot,

And his clothes weren’t tarnished with ashes and soot.

A bundle of optimism he had flung on his back,

And he looked like a peddler, just opening his pack.

His eyes-how they twinkled! his dimples how merry!

His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry!

He started to share his good will and cheer,

Predicting a happy and healthy new year!

“The stocks will go up, with very few laggards,

You’ll probably land a few dozen ten-baggers!

Diversify, study, and keep your course steady,

Within a few years, retirement funds will be ready!”

His prediction was sweeter than fresh maple syrup,

No hard landing in China! Forget about Europe!

I was so filled with cheer I was nearly immobile,

We could recoup our losses from trusting MF Global!

He spoke these few words, then went straight to his work,

And picked all the winners, then turned with a jerk.

Laying his finger aside of his nose,

And giving a nod, up the chimney he rose!

He sprang to his sleigh, to his team gave a whistle,

And away they all flew like the down of a thistle.

But I heard him exclaim, to his sidekicks, the elves,

"Here’s to happy portfolios in 2023!"

MY COMMENT

A sincere MERRY CHRISTMAS to all on this board.

(Compliments of Forbes.....2012.)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chrisb...when-all-through-wall-street/?sh=34d0eb54a10e

 

This is direct source material from the Philadelphia FED....because.....I know people in the current environment will NOT believe this if I use a story from Reuters or some news source. YES......it appears that the government JOBS DATA is corrupted and/or totally unreliable.

Early Benchmark Revisionsof
State Payroll Employment

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/m...-revisions/early-benchmark-2022-q2-report.pdf

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


"Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia

Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June
2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from
the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). Early benchmark estimates indicated higher
changes in four states, lower changes in 29 states and the District of Columbia, and lesser changes in the remaining 17
states.

Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment the sample data from the BLS’s CES that
are issued monthly on a timely basis.

All percentage change calculations are expressed as annualized rates. Read
more aboutour methodology.Learn more aboutinterpreting our early benchmark estimates.


In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were
added during the period rather than the
1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the
states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth
of 1,047,000 jobs for the period.
Payroll jobs in the nation remained
essentially flat from March through June
2022 after adjusting for QCEW data:

•Less than the 3.0 percent growth
indicated by the sum of the states
•Less than the 2.8 percent growth
indicated by the U.S. CES estimates
Over the cumulative three-quarter period
ending with this 2022 Q2 vintage — which
includes additional QCEW data changes affecting the prior two quarters — payroll jobs in the nation grew 3.5
percent:
•Less than the 4.1 percent growth based on the sum of the states
•Less than the 4.2 percent growth based on the U.S. CES estimates
Current U.S. CES estimates indicate job growth was 4.0 percent over the 12-month period through September 2021
and 2.8 percent over the four months since June 2022.

Note: To reduce potential impacts of extreme employment changes during the pandemic period on our seasonal
adjustment processes, we included data only through December 2019, switched from a multiplicative to an
additive seasonal adjustment process, and forecast seasonal factors for 2020 through 2022.

MY COMMENT

If I did not specifically search for this info out of curiosity.....I would never see this. there are a few media stories in Reuters and a few other sources.....but....this is uniformly being IGNORED. Why that is and why this data is so distorted.......is way above my pay grade......and......I dont care.

A perfect illustration of the danger and FOOLISHNESS of believing and using ANY government economic data as a basis for investing. The ONLY data that makes sense, might be accurate and has REAL relevance to an individual company........ is company earnings reports and other company data on ACTUAL business operations.

 

I like this little article.

The Risk in Reacting to December’s Reversal

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ry/the-risk-in-reacting-to-decembers-reversal

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Short-term moves aren’t predictable—or predictive.

Oh Santa Claus, where art thou? Seasonal adages tell us this is the season when the Santa rally lifts stocks to a cheerful year-end, but November’s rally has fizzled this month, with another big down day adding to the pain Thursday. This back-and-forth grind is frustrating, especially in the context of this year’s bear market. Just when it seems like stocks have turned a corner, negativity returns. It can make exiting stocks—even after this year’s declines—look attractive. But remember: There is a huge risk in reacting to reversals and volatility—it complicates and limits your ability to capture a recovery and, hence, stocks’ long-term returns.

Fisher Investments’ Founder and Executive Chairman, Ken Fisher, has long called the stock market, “The Great Humiliator”—think of it as a trickster-type character that loves fooling as many people as possible out of as much money as possible. Among its most tried and true tactics? Refusing to move in straight lines. Bull markets are long—but jagged—marches higher, usually with a few steep, sharp drops of -10% to -20% called corrections. Bear markets, by contrast, trace their declines below -20% in fits and starts. Brief rallies often interrupt the decline to give investors false hope that the pain is over. In a way, that makes the ensuing legs down feel even worse than they otherwise might—it isn’t just the pain of the declines, but the disappointment and shattered hope they bring.

Perhaps most maddening? Bear markets’ ends are clear only in hindsight. We know from stock market history that bear markets typically end in a V-shape, with a sharp initial recovery. But bear market rallies can also seem to take that V formation before rolling over again to new lows. That probably lends some extra trepidation to December’s decline, which has partly erased what had been a very nice rally from stocks’ year-to-date low on October 12 through November’s end. Is it a march to a new bear market low in the days or weeks ahead? Or a headfake to shake out the weak early in a new bull market? There is no way to know. Short-term moves, whether they come during bull or bear markets, are always impossible to predict.

But here are some things we do know. Stocks’ annualized 10.3% return since good data begin in 1926 includes all bear markets along the way. Even really really really bad ones like those in the 1930s, 2000 – 2002 and 2008 – 2009. Hard as it may be to remember and believe when stocks are down, bull markets have always followed bear markets. They have also regularly eclipsed the bear markets, rising more and for longer—the reward for the volatility.

So if you have been invested all year and seen your portfolio fall with the market, what do you do? Selling out now on the fear that more downtimes are in store might feel better. But it comes at a cost—and not just the cost of inflation eroding cash’s value. The cost is this: What if you are wrong and a bull market gets cooking much faster than you anticipate? How much return will you miss before getting back in? How long will that delay your portfolio’s recovery? How much of a setback will it be for your long-term return compared to if you had remained patient and disciplined? How will you know that recovery isn’t another headfake? Is the temporary emotional comfort worth those tradeoffs?

To achieve market-like returns over time, you generally have to be in the market—especially when stocks are rising. Given the impossibility of predicting and timing short-term moves, if you try to dance around near-term downswings, there is a high likelihood you will miss at least some of the upswings that follow them. Every bit of bull market you miss is growth that could have compounded over time, bringing you that much closer to your long-term goals.

Volatility will always be with us, but it cuts both ways. There are good times and bad times, and they often come in clusters—especially during bear markets and new bull markets. Is it possible that mid-October through November was just another bear market rally and we are now on the way to new lows? Yes. But is it probable? We have a hard time believing it is. Bull markets usually begin when sentiment is depressed, which sure seems to be the case now. Look at why pundits claimed stocks fell Thursday: They said good economic news was really bad news because it meant the Fed was likelier to keep hiking rates. That is emblematic of a sentiment phenomenon we call the Pessimism of Disbelief—all good news gets ignored or couched as bad. We have seen this for the past several weeks, and in our experience, it is foundational to new bull markets. If the overriding mood were hope, while this is counterintuitive, it would probably be a bad sign, not a good one.

Most importantly: Remember stocks look to the next 3 – 30 months. This rough patch of high inflation, war and wobbling economic indicators is widely known—not a surprise to stocks. But within that 3 – 30 month window, there is a strong probability of better days as the global economy works through today’s headwinds and builds a solid foundation. At some point, stocks will shift from stewing over bad news to pricing in that better future. That is how nearly every new bull market begins. And if you are investing for long-term growth, we think the most beneficial approach now is to ensure you are invested to capture that new bull market when it arrives, if it hasn’t already."

MY COMMENT

A message of HOPE for any long term investors that are begining to have little doubts. BELIEVE.

 

Last market day before CHRISTMAS. We opened mixed and move on from here. Obviously being a Friday before Christmas the markets will be EXTREMELY SHALLOW today. IGNORE and move on.....is my motto for the day.

 

WHATEVER.

Stock market news live updates: Stock futures muted as economic data rolls in

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-23-2022-122313869.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stock futures wobbled Friday morning ahead of the long holiday weekend.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slumped 0.1%, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) hovered below the flatline. Contracts on the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) were 0.2% lower.

The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday, Dec. 26, in observance of Christmas Day. Bond markets will close one hour earlier than usual on Friday at 2 p.m. ET.

The PCE core price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — rose at an annual 5.5% in November and 0.1% from the prior month, on par with consensus estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The figured marked a moderation from readings of 6.1% and 0.3%, respectively, in October.

Core PCE, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, rose 4.7% year-over-year and 0.2% on a monthly basis.

Investors will also get readings on the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey and new home sales.

After the Fed’s final policy decision of 2022 last week, strategists pointed out that the most surprising data point among economic projections from officials was an upward revision to their core PCE expectations to 3.5% from 3.1% previously at the end of 2023. This suggested to many analysts that the Federal Reserve will need to keep rates at a high terminal rate through 2023.

"We’re expecting the Fed to revise down its forecasts as soon as March, though progress initially will be slow; policymakers appear to have been scarred by the experience of the past year-and-a-half, and will want to be sure they aren’t moving their numbers down prematurely," Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson said in a note. "Markets won’t wait."

Friday's moves come after a brutal previous trading day that saw the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq register losses of 1.4%, 1%, and 2.2%, respectively. Investors were spooked by a warning from chipmaker Micron Technology about the semiconductor industry and robust labor market and consumer spending data that confirmed the outlook for "higher for longer" interest rates.

Oil prices ascended Friday and paced toward a big weekly gain as investors expected a drop in supply of Russian crude. That helped quell concerns over a drop in demand for transportation fuel in the U.S. ahead of a winter storm moving toward North America. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures – the U.S. benchmark – rose 2% to $79 per barrel.

U.S. Treasury yields inched higher, while the U.S. dollar index retreated against a basket of other currencies."

MY COMMENT

YEP......absolutely NOTHING going on or new.