The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We are down to the....FINAL FOUR.....no not basketball, the final four market days of the year next week.

    BUT.....today....I was in the green by a small amount. I barley got beat by the SP500 by0.05% today. I had six stocks up and four down. The downers were TSLA, NKE, AAPL, and NVDA.

    It is make of break time for the Santa rally next week.....time is going to run out on the year.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We are going to have some retirement changes.

    Here's what's in the new $53B retirement bill now headed to President Biden's desk

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/here...eaded-to-president-bidens-desk-201537512.html

    The changes with the largest impact for most people are:

    "One closely watched provision will change the age when people must start taking mandatory distributions from their private retirement plans. The SECURE Act increased the so-called RMDs from age 70 to its current level of 72. Now, the requirement will rise again to 73 starting on Jan. 1, 2023 and then up to 75 in 2033."

    And for younger people:

    "The key provision, according to many lawmakers, is the new rule around automatic enrollment.
    It is the first section of the bill and will mandate businesses to automatically sign up new employees for the employer-sponsored a retirement plan (if one is offered) as part of the onboarding process. The rule would take effect in 2025 and would apply to businesses that offer a 401(k) or 403(b) plan.
    New hires could opt out, but the default would be savings. Studies have shown that employers with auto-enrollment retirement plans have much higher rates of participation."

    There are various other aspects of the new retirement law that will impact various smaller groups of people and businesses....take a look if you are interested."
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Last FULL WEEK of the year.

    DOW year to date (-8.63%)
    DOW for the week +0.86%

    SP500 year to date (-19.33%)
    SP500 for the week (-0.20%)

    NASDAQ 100 year to date (-32.69%)
    NASDAQ 100 for the week (-2.30%)

    NASDAQ year to date (-32.90%)
    NASDAQ for the week (-1.94%)

    RUSSELL year to date (-21.57%)
    RUSSELL for the week (-0.14%)

    It is what it is.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    That is it.....I am hanging it up for the week.....at least for now.

    I need to leave to go play a show tonight in the 18 degree weather....a little 150 mile road trip. At least the weather is free of any rain or moisture....otherwise the show would no doubt be canceled. YES.....this show is indoors.
     
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  5. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all.
    Now go and eat all the leftover food from last night
     
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  6. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    merry christmas. no more food! feel like a beached whale.
     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NO markets today.....but......there is some data on the Christmas shopping.

    Retail sales grow 7.6% during holidays, but consumers turn cautious: Mastercard data

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-retail-sales-grows-7-131846292.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "(Reuters) - U.S. retail sales rose 7.6% between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, which encompasses a majority of the holiday season, as steep discounts lured deal-hungry consumers, a Mastercard report showed on Monday.

    The increase is higher than the 7.1% growth Mastercard had forecast in September, when it anticipated consumers would pull purchases to October in the hunt for early deals.

    However, this year's holiday retail sales growth is less than the 8.5% increase last year as decades-high inflation, rising interest rates and the threat of a recession turned consumers cautious.

    Retailers including Amazon.com Inc and Walmart Inc in the United States offered large discounts during the holiday season to get rid of excess stock and bring back inventories to normal levels.

    That led to strong demand for everything from toys to electronics during the five-day-long period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday.

    However, sales of electronics dropped 5.3% over the broader roughly two-month period, according to the Mastercard SpendingPulse report.

    But sales in the apparel and restaurants categories, rose 4.4% and 15.1%, respectively, helping boost the overall number.

    Online sales jumped 10.6% in the period, slightly less than the 11% increase last year, the Mastercard report said.

    Meanwhile, during the cyber week, total retail sales had jumped about 11%, a separate Mastercard SpendingPulse report in late November showed.

    Mastercard SpendingPulse measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment. It excludes automotive sales."

    MY COMMENT

    So, once again......the data turns out as good or better than expected......in spite of all the DOOM&GLOOM that we saw about holiday sales over the past week or two.

    It is now pervasive and never going to go away.....and.....this sort of CONSTANT negative opinion WILL impact the markets and business more and more going forward.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.....no more food.....no more food.....no more food.
     
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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is our little short week that will start tomorrow.

    No Santa Claus rally in sight as stocks round out grim 2022: What to know this week
    Wall Street's hopes will be high for year-end gains to offer markets some reprieve after a vicious December.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ahead-holidays-rates-recession-120033858.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "This coming holiday-shortened week will round out a brutal year for Wall Street as 2022 comes to an end.

    The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday, December 26, in observance of Christmas Day.

    The earnings and economic calendars will be light, with much of the business world off until next year.

    Traders who are working through the holiday period will get readings on wholesale and retail inventories, weekly jobless claims, and the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.

    When investors return from a long weekend Tuesday, hopes will be high for a Santa Claus Rally – a seasonal rise in the stock market that occurs at the end of December. But with selling pressures remaining in place over fears about a looming recession, the favorable season pattern may take this year off.

    The Santa Claus Rally is typically defined as the last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year, with Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, coining the term back in 1972.

    During this period, the S&P 500 has historically churned out an average gain of 1.3% going back to 1950, according to data from LPL Financial. This compares to a 0.2% average return for all rolling seven-day returns.

    More importantly, the Santa Claus Rally is often seen as an indicator for future market performance. The S&P 500 has historically underperformed in January and over the following year when a year-end rally failed to unfold, LPL Financial indicated.

    Yale Hirsch even prophesied: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

    It’s not too late for the Santa Claus rally, but unfortunately positive inflation data has been overshadowed by the Fed’s tough language and the upcoming recession that they’ve orchestrated with their aggressive rate hikes,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance said in a note.

    With the year nearing an end, 2022 is so far on pace for its worst annual performance since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. It will also mark the end of three consecutive years of gains for the stock market, and a dramatic comedown from 2021, which saw the S&P 500 return nearly 27%.

    [​IMG]
    The S&P 500 historically underperforms in January and over the following year when there is no Santa Claus Rally prior. (Credit: Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist, LPL Financial)
    Much of that is owed to the historic actions of global central banks, which have raised interest rates in lockstep to rein in the highest inflation in decades after a period of extensive fiscal stimulus. The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by a cumulative 4.25% this year, the most since 1980, while signaling that further hikes were likely in the year ahead.

    After central banks delivered their final increases of the year last week, equity markets experienced their worst ever exodus, notching outflows of nearly $42 billion, per figures from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Barclays, which each cited EPFR Global data.

    Looking ahead, there may not be much upside for equity investors next year, with monetary policymakers around the world asserting firmly that they are certain to press on with tightening financial conditions next year until price stability is firmly restored — a reality that has many of Wall Street’s biggest names bracing for a long road to nowhere for U.S. stocks.

    Last week, veteran hedge fund manager David Tepper said he was “leaning short on the equity markets” over concerns rising interest rates will further batter stocks.

    “I think the upside/downside just doesn’t make sense to me when I have so many central banks telling me what they are going to do,” the founder and president of firm Appaloosa Management said Thursday in an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box.

    “Sometimes they tell you what they are going to do, and you have to believe them.”"



    "Economic Calendar
    Monday: No notable reports scheduled for release. Markets closed for Christmas holiday.

    Tuesday: Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, November Preliminary (0.5% during previous month); Advance Goods Trade Balance, November (-$96.8 billion expected, -$99.0 billion during prior month); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, November (-0.1 expected, -0.2% during prior month); FHFA Housing Pricing Index, month-over-month, October (-0.6% expected, 0.1% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, October (-1.40% expected, -1.24% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, October (8.20% expected, 10.43% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, year-over-year, October (10.65% during prior month); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, December (-14.4 during prior month)

    Wednesday: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, December (-9 during prior month); Pending Home Sales, month-over-month, November (-1.0% expected, -4.6% during prior month); Pending Home Sales NSA, year-over-year, November (-36.7% during prior month)

    Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, week ended Dec. 24 (216,000 during prior week), Continuing Claims, week ended Dec. 17 (1.672 million during prior week),

    Friday: No notable reports scheduled for release."

    MY COMMENT

    Nothing much going on this week. Everyone is going to be on vacation or at home.......so we will see the usual very shallow markets between Christmas and new Years.

    The "professional" opinion and financial media opinion seems to be overwhelmingly negative about the potential for a Santa Rally and the new year......fine with me. The ACTUAL markets have a long history of making FOOLS out of the people that try to predict this stuff.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    My MAIN JOB this week will be to do all the year end and and new year financial "stuff" that needs to be done every year.......4th quarter estimate for taxes (the only one that I pay each year).....pay property taxes......various once a year requirements and payments that have to be made at the start of each year......review and fine tune my budget.....etc, etc, etc. January is my greatest money management month of the year
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    That is about it for what is going on today.....not much.

    Everyone......take it easy......be safe in the continued bad weather in most of the country. We had a big FREEZE over the past few days......but......this week we will be seeing temperatures in the 60's to mid 70's range here in Central Texas.
     
  13. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    yeah, that's nasty weather back east. times like these are when i don't mind paying the high taxes and costs of living in socal, as i sit here is shorts.

    edit: we could use some global warming about now. yes?
     
    #13653 emmett kelly, Dec 26, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2022
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    What? Where is my Santa Rally?

    So far not seeing it today.....but the market activity is light and at least the DOW is green at the moment. How we end is very much up in the air.....at the moment....with the gains or losses for the day being very tentative.

    I am simply looking forward to being donw with 2022.......not that it will change anything over the short term. We probably have at least 6 more months of the same old same old. BUT.....at least we can easily see the end of the FED rate increases in the next 4-6 months. That should help a bit.

    The most important DRIVER of the markets will be the EARNINGS for the first and second quarters of 2023.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Of course......the negativity is ALL relative.

    Holidays of Luxury

    https://www.aier.org/article/holidays-of-luxury/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "If news of inflation and recession has you feeling a bit Grinchy, some historical perspective might put some joy back into the season. Our current economic woes are significant, and might worsen before they improve. Still, the season of gratitude and giving is a great time to celebrate the abundance around us.

    This year, Americans are poised to spend around $1000 on gifts, food, cards, and decorations. Yet, as usual, we’re nowhere near as poor as we imagine.

    Market economies fuel incredible prosperity and the holidays provide useful examples of how we are better off today than a few decades ago. Consider the Christmas gifts and decor of years past, once deemed luxuries, now everyday goods.

    During the Great Depression, people stuffed oranges in their Christmas stockings when the tropical treat was a rare luxury. Unless you lived in California or Florida, citrus was unavailable, especially in winter.

    An orange then cost 29 cents; today, the national price is $1.64. But inflation amid a massive increase in abundance and affordability obscures the true price: an orange is six times higher in nominal dollars (up from 29 cents to 1.64). However, 29 cents then held a purchasing power equivalent to $6.30 today.

    Rises in productivity driven by technological innovation explain the difference. An “average” laborer (male, white, and in a semi-skilled trade like baking or bootmaking) in the early 1930s made 45 cents an hour and purchasing an orange represented nearly 40 minutes work. Today, even at the nominally increased price, the average American laborer (hourly wage $16.40) can afford an orange in just 6 minutes.

    Productivity isn’t the only thing that’s improved, but the quality of goods. A pound of ham for Christmas dinner cost just 8 cents in 1932, compared to $3 today, both representing around 11 minutes of work. But the sublimely cured, spiral-cut, vacuum-sealed ham we enjoy today is of such significantly better quality that the Depression-era worker couldn’t have bought it at any price.

    Beyond food, during the Depression, store-bought tinsel and evergreen garlands were quixotic, so people decorated with paper chains and strung popcorn as a cheaper alternative. If a family possessed full-sized spruce, it would have gone, not on a decorative stand, but into the wood stove for life-sustaining heat. The tradition of the Yule log and the Christmas tree comes from European paganism, where people in heavily wooded areas could obtain a tree for next to nothing – except the hours of work it took to hew and haul it. The commercial purchase of a tree, which this year averages $100, is a luxury-turned-necessity we happily pay to enjoy.

    A drive through any suburban neighborhood reveals another hallmark of abundance: holiday light displays. Inflatable characters are now commonplace, though only used a few weeks a year. The ability to spend the fruits of our labor beyond basic necessities and on these external ornaments is telling. Elaborate decorations may cost hundreds in added electricity bills, and even the space we use to store them for the other eleven months now costs upward of $120 per square foot.

    With a polar vortex bearing down on half the nation, we might forgo outdoor caroling, football, or festivities. But the power to heat our homes is cheaper, more abundant, and more consistent than at any time in human history. Natural gas and fuel oil keep many of us toasty, and even more of us run our heaters on instantly available electricity, generated mostly by coal. We don’t even have to burn those smoky, sooty saviors in our homes to harness their benefits

    A dreary news cycle might mask the beauty of how markets deliver increasing prosperity for us to enjoy with our loved ones. And, for many families, the inflation from the Federal Reserve’s monetary malpractice is making this holiday season more expensive than recent years.

    Yet looking back at history reveals our current reality remains bright. Commonplace goods, such as oranges and Christmas decorations, considered luxuries only decades ago, are one example. Markets enable continuous increases in prosperity. As this season passes, keep today’s holidays of luxury in mind the next time you observe negative media blaming markets or capitalism for the state of things. Through market exchange, we give each other unprecedented abundance, in this joyful season and all year long."

    MY COMMENT

    AMEN......each older generation sees the younger generations enjoying prosperity and abundance way beyond what the older people routinely saw when they were the young generation.....at least here in the USA. We have a lot to be thankful for......regardless of the negative markets that we are seeing right now. As usual.......the FUTURE is BRIGHT.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    And....to continue the little theme above.

    Stop complaining, says billionaire investor Charlie Munger: ‘Everybody’s five times better off than they used to be’

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/27/cha...ing-about-wealth-inequality-life-quality.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Billionaire Charlie Munger thinks we should all be a lot happier.

    Munger, the longtime investment partner and friend of fellow billionaire Warren Buffett, says he doesn’t understand why people today aren’t more content with what they have, especially compared to harder times throughout history.

    People are less happy about the state of affairs than they were when things were way tougher,” Munger said earlier this year at the annual meeting of the Daily Journal, the newspaper company where he’s a director.

    The 98-year-old noted that he came of age in the 1930s, when Americans everywhere were struggling: “It’s weird for somebody my age, because I was in the middle of the Great Depression when the hardship was unbelievable.”

    During that annual meeting, Munger complained that envy is a driving factor for too many people today. Prior to the early 1800s, there were thousands of years where “life was pretty brutal, short, limited and what have you. [There was] no printing press, no air conditioning, no modern medicine,” he said.

    If nothing else, Munger’s sense of widespread envy in today’s world might be right on the money: Recent studies show that roughly 75% of people are envious of someone else in any given year.

    Social media sites like Facebook, Instagram and Twitter are especially effective at sparking feelings of envy or jealousy, often connecting us with people who only offer highly-curated peeks into the positive developments in their lives.

    At the meeting, Munger pointed to the work of Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker, who has argued that the quality of life around the world has improved dramatically over the past century or two, citing evidence such as longer life expectancies and reduced global poverty.

    Critics of Pinker’s work say his views are overly simplified and ignorant of negative aspects of modern life, from growing wealth inequality to the ongoing existence of violence and political instability — factors that can still cause real suffering.

    In 2019, Munger downplayed the effects of wealth and income inequality, and claimed that the politicians who were “screaming about it are idiots.”

    Some politicians, like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, have called for tax increases on the ultra-wealthy in recent years. Munger and his estimated net worth of $2.2 billion would likely be subject to those increases.

    The billionaire has expressed skepticism about higher taxes on the wealthy in the past, even arguing last year that some inequality is a necessary aspect of a free market economy. At the Daily Journal’s annual meeting this year, he added that most people’s concerns over wealth inequality and criticisms of the extremely wealthy were “motivated” by envy.

    I can’t change the fact that a lot of people are very unhappy and feel very abused after everything’s improved by about 600%, because there’s still somebody else who has more,” Munger said."

    MY COMMENT

    YES.....the constant all year long....every day....Christmas Letter that is social media.......is poisoning society with rampant greed, Jealousy, and envy.

    Add in the loss of work ethic.....and the......get quick rich mentality and you have the modern world.

    BUT you younger people......dont worry......in the distant future when you are old.......what we are going through now will be the GOOD OLD DAYS when you look back at your lives compared to the conditions of society when....."YOU"....are old.

    The BEST MESSAGE.....live in the present and enjoy your life......it goes by quickly.
     
  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I'm in a weird place. We have a substantial amount of cash. If the market were in a better place, I would be happy to have the cash for security and I would start trickling it into GICs every two months. If the market were much worse, I would buy more stock with some of it (I can never go all-in, now that I am retired).

    So, I am doing what I do best. Nothing.
     
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  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I had a nice medium loss today......definately a RED day for me. Santa is apparently lost in the Amazon.

    I also got hammered by the SP500 today by......1.15%.

    Looking at my WORST stocks for the year........first AMAZON. They are DISMAL....not only are they down big for the year.......BUT.....they have now turned negative for THREE YEARS......(-11.11%).

    The other two are down big for the year but STILL positive nicely for three years. TSLA is still at +282% for three years and NVDA is still +139% for three years. I am NOT saying that I have held them both for three years.......but.....the three year numbers are STILL positive and give confidence.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NOT a good start to a short week.

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks mixed as trading resumes after long holiday weekend

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-27-2022-115403885.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "U.S. stocks twisted and turned Tuesday as Wall Street returned from the long holiday weekend to barrel through the final four trading days of 2022.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced around 90 points, or 0.3%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slid 0.8%.


    A move by China to scrap quarantine requirements for inbound travelers beginning Jan. 8 had given sentiment a boost, with the country broadening its reopening after three years of zero-COVID controls and travel restrictions. The National Health Commission also said Monday that the nation’s management of the virus will be downgraded to Category B from the top-level Category A.

    Tesla (TSLA) continued a sharp downtrend after Reuters reported the electric vehicle giant will run a reduced production schedule at its Shanghai factory in January, extending the reduced output it began this month into the new year. Tesla stock fell more than 6% early into the session.

    Megacaps including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) each sank more than 1%.

    Shares of Southwest Airlines (LUV) tumbled 6% after the airline canceled roughly 2,900 flights — or 70% of scheduled flights on Monday, one day after scrapping 48% on Sunday.

    The U.S. Transportation Department (USDOT) called the magnitude of canceled flights "unacceptable" and said it would investigate whether the company was responsible.

    In other pockets of the market, the U.S. dollar index retreated as China's easing of virus protocols spurred a move out of safe-haven assets. U.S. Treasury yields climbed higher after their biggest rise last week since April.

    Oil prices extended a recent ascent to touch three-week highs as prospects for reopening demand from China added to concerns about the impact of colder weather in the United States on production. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures — the U.S. benchmark — rose 1% to top $80 per barrel.

    The moves in early trading come after an up day Friday that helped the S&P 500 and Dow avert a third-straight weekly loss. The indexes advanced 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. The Nasdaq also closed Friday higher but was down 1.5% for the week.

    Investors have been hopeful a Santa Claus Rally can offer some reprieve to equity markets as they head toward their worst year since 2008. The phenomenon – a seasonal rise in the stock market that occurs at the end of December – is typically defined as the last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year. Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, discovered the pattern in 1972.

    A brutal December marked by rate and recession fears has kept selling pressures high all month and dampened hopes for the typical year-end rally. But with Friday’s positive close marking the first day of the period, the stock market will look to eke out gains during the shortened trading week.

    DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe points out that the S&P 500 has a meaningfully better win rate and overall average performance following a negative calendar year of less than 10% than ones that post a higher loss — and 2022 is poised to end in the latter category.

    That said, when the index is down in the double digits as it is today, the odds of it being positive next year is essentially a coin flip and the returns aren’t nearly as promising as they would be if the S&P ended down less than 10%,” Rabe said in a recent note. “If there had been a real 'Santa Claus Rally' this month, the S&P might have ended the year with less than a double-digit decline.”"

    MY COMMENT

    These little articles with the ...."HOPE".....for a Santa Rally......are quickly running out of time. Three days to go and ZERO rally in sight. At this point it is simply a situation of running out the rest of the year......and moving on. With the NEW YEAR.....we can at least hope for a positive year........all hope is LOST this year.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Just to make myself feel better.

    Cathie Wood Feels Investors' Pain, Foresees Gains
    Wood's flagship $6.1 billion Ark Innovation ETF suffered a net investment outflow of $308 million in the past month.

    https://www.thestreet.com/investing...vestor-pain-sees-gains?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Popular money manager Cathie Wood of Ark Investment Management has seen her young-technology-stock funds hit the skids this year amid weak earnings.

    Wood’s flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) - Get Free Report has lost 68% in 2022 and is down 81% from its February 2021 peak.

    The Ark chief executive has defended her strategy by noting that she has a five-year investment horizon. But the five-year annualized return of Ark Innovation totaled a negative 2.66% through Dec. 26, against the S&P 500’s positive return of 9.38%.

    The fund’s performance also doesn’t come close to Wood’s goal for annualized returns of 15% over five-year periods.

    Acknowledgement of Losses

    In a year-end letter to investors, Wood doesn’t apologize for her performance. But she does address it, if a bit obliquely.

    We acknowledge that a risk-off market environment has pushed investors back toward benchmarks during the last two years, disadvantaging strategies that focus on disruptive innovation,” she wrote. Wood focuses on “disruptive innovation” stocks.

    “While innovation solves problems and typically gains traction during difficult times, some companies may be cutting back on research and development and other investments to build cash as a buffer against the fallout from higher interest rates,” she said.

    Fear of the future is palpable these days, but crisis historically has created opportunities.”

    Wood sees a strong environment for her stocks. “According to the latest [Bank of America] Fund Manager Survey, cash levels have not been this high since the 9/11 crisis in 2001,” she said. “And investors are overweight bonds for the first time since April 2009.”

    Further, “the CBOE equity put/call ratio [has] surged above 2.0, the highest level on record, surpassing the ratios in both the tech and telecom bubble [2000-01] and the global financial crisis [2008-09],” Wood said.

    “In hindsight, both of those times were terrific opportunities to put funds to work in highly differentiated ways.”

    Rah, Rah for Innovation

    And what about now? “To the extent investors have reserves of cash to put to work, Ark believes that this time will be no different and that innovation strategies will be prime beneficiaries when equity markets recover,” Wood said.

    Meanwhile, Ark Innovation ETF’s subpar returns may finally be starting to push investors away. The $6.1 billion fund registered a net investment outflow of $308 million in the past month, according to ETF research firm VettaFi.

    But it has still notched a $1.33 billion inflow for the year to date.

    You might wonder why so many investors have stuck with Wood. The fact that she had one spectacular year certainly helps. Ark Innovation ETF skyrocketed 153% in 2020.

    Also, Wood has become something of a rock star in the investment world, appearing frequently in the media. She explains financial concepts in ways that novice investors can understand.

    Not everyone is enamored with her. Earlier this year, Morningstar analyst Robby Greengold issued a scathing critique of Ark Innovation.

    “ARKK shows few signs of improving its risk management or ability to successfully navigate the challenging territory it explores,” he wrote.


    Wood countered Greengold’s points in an interview with Magnifi Media by Tifin. “I do know there are companies like that one [Morningstar] that do not understand what we're doing,” she said."

    MY COMMENT

    ONE good year and that is it......so far. I could see what she does.......IF.......she REALLY had a five year horizan and was buying all these companies to hold for that five years. BUT......she trades in and out of companies like a MANIAC. it seems like she often trades in and out of a stock way sooner than five years and often sooner than one year. SO.....my view is.....what she seems to say and what she actually does are two different things.

    Basically......this is a fund manager that had a....SINGLE......big year. Here we are two years after the end of her big year and she has NEVER been able to duplicate or even come anywhere close to that one positive year. Her five year return is NEGATIVE.

    I do not own this fund or any of her funds......and.....I will not do so. I am definately NOT impressed with what she does and how she does it.
     
    IndependentCandy14 and TomB16 like this.

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