The Long Term Investor

As to TSLA mentioned earlier by SUNSHINE.

Tesla Fans Keep Buying, Unbowed by the $720 Billion Wipeout

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-set-longest-ever-losing-102443962.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Bloomberg) -- Even the worst year ever for Tesla Inc. shares hasn’t shaken individual investors’ faith in the electric-vehicle maker and its billionaire chief executive officer, Elon Musk.

Such retail traders have continued piling into the shares, data from Vanda Research show. In fact, they’ve been strong buyers every day this month, driving their net purchases to record highs in both December and the fourth quarter.

On Wednesday, they appeared poised to get a small reward for their loyalty: Tesla shares closed 3.3% higher at $112.71 in New York, halting a seven-day losing streak that had driven them down 70% this year through Tuesday and erased almost $720 billion from the company’s stock-market capitalization.

The drubbing has been fueled by rising interest rates that battered growth stocks, worries that demand will erode if there’s a recession, and concerns that Musk’s acquisition of Twitter will divert his attention and increase his sales of Tesla stock to keep the social-media company afloat. The drop had, at one point, made it the third-worst performer in the S&P 500 Index this year.

Yet for Tesla’s diehard fans among retail investors, the risks to electric-vehicle demand or Musk’s preoccupation with Twitter haven’t been enough to sour them on a stock that became one of Wall Street’s highest fliers during the pandemic.

“Retail investors have bought more Tesla stock over the last 6 months than they have done overall in the 60 months prior to this,” Vanda’s senior strategist Viraj Patel said. “For institutional investors, it’s a seller’s paradise when you have a buyer that is clearly not reading the fundamental signals.”

On Tuesday, Tesla was hit by an 11% slump on fresh concerns about a production halt at its Shanghai plant and last week’s report that Tesla is offering US consumers a hefty $7,500 discount to take delivery of its cars before year-end.

That fueled concerns about eroding demand ahead of fourth-quarter delivery numbers expected in early January. Estimates have been coming down in recent weeks, and on Wednesday Baird analyst Ben Kallo was the latest to lower his, citing the “potential for weakening of demand.”

Growth stocks overall have been hammered this year, with the Nasdaq 100 slumping 35% as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates aggressively to tame inflation. Tesla was among the biggest drags on the index, with this year’s plunge marking a stark turnaround from the company’s 1,163% rally over the prior two years. Musk’s sales of Tesla stock and the distraction caused by his Twitter takeover also haven’t helped.

“It feels like confidence is gone, and Tesla’s fairy tale suddenly ended,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. “Investors are more eager to see how the looming recession will hit Tesla demand, how competition from other electric-vehicle makers will impact Tesla’s market share, and when Elon Musk will stop messing elsewhere while Tesla is shaking badly.”"

MY COMMENT

You either believe or you do not with this company. I choose a middle ground.....I will hold onto what I have....which is a smaller position than the other BIG CAP stocks in my portfolio. BUT.......I have no plans to add any additional shares.

In general I do not EVER buy AUTO STOCKS. I dont like them and they have NEVER done anything for me. if TESLA evolves into just another car company over the years.....I will sell all shares regardless of what it is doing. If they continue as a cutting edge TECH company.....I will continue to hold my shares.

 

TWO....market day left in year 2022. Last time we had a down year for the SP500 was in 2018. It was down by (-4.525). Before that it was 2008....when it was down by (-37.02%)

SO.....considering this year to be a lock to be DOWN.......we have seen only three down years in the SP500 over the past.....FIFTEEN YEARS. I will take that positive return record any time....all day long.

THE POWER OF LONG TERM INVESTING.

 

Nice open today......for once.

Regarding the discussion of age above. When I started investing......at a very young age....many years ago ( the last part sounds like a Star Wars opening line).....there were not a lot of young investors. In fact....there were not many investors at all of any age....the percentage of the population that invested in stocks and funds back than was TINY. There were no 401K accounts or IRA accounts. BUT....over the years....even as a person in my 30's and 40's....there were not a lot of LONG TERM investors. Even in the 1990's posting on investing message boards....long term investing would be derided as.....BUY AND HOLD....which had a very negative connotation in that era.

BUT....guess what? When I look back at my entire lifetime.....I dont see a single person that I know that was successful investing.....unless....they were one of the few that did long term investing.

It is the same now.....the "kids" over at WSB and Redditt.....when you look back in 15, 20, 30, 40, years.......will either have changed over to long term investing OR will show very poor results for what they did.

Investing is like EVERYTHING else. It takes guts to go against the grain and do something different than the crowd. In the end it WILL pay off for anyone that follows a long term investing path......and.....invests in ICONIC rational and realistic companies.

 

This year was a RARE year for the DOW.

The Dow crushed tech stocks by the widest margin in 20 years: Morning Brief

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-...rgin-in-20-years-morning-brief-110001770.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks sold off on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq Composite underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average yet again — a trend that encapsulates the biggest challenge of the investing year.

The Nasdaq is down 35% so far in 2022, while the Dow is off less than 10%. And this Dow outperformance relative to the tech index is by far the biggest gap since the dot-com bubble peaked and unwound from 2000 to 2002.


Dow vs. Nasdaq - 1971 to Present
The explanation is relatively simple: The Fed is aggressively fighting inflation, which has clobbered tech and growth stocks this year. Meanwhile, energy names soared for most of 2022, while cyclical and defensive sectors like health care, industrials, materials, staples saw investor interest pick up in the fourth quarter.

For many investors, 2022 may simply seem to be an aberration, a pit stop on the Fed's track back to low interest rates, or what many investors now imagine is the norm after a decade of record low rates.

The thinking goes that once the Fed nips inflation in the bud, the central bank can restart the low interest rate incubator that launched hundreds of high-growth tech winners over the last decade-plus as cheap capital fueled land grabs for market share in new industries.

Markets are pricing in a Fed that finally cools on its rate hiking plans in 2023 — but that doesn't necessarily mean a return to the previous trading regime. With geopolitical risk on the rise — and COVID worries back in the headlines — the battle over inflation could turn out to be a multi-year affair, bleeding into the second half of this decade.

If that's the case, cyclical and defensive names may be the place to camp out for a few years.

And if the trends in the market both in 2022 and the year's final quarter are anything to go by, it seems some investors are catching on to this way of thinking.

Compare the year-to-date performance of the top 25 S&P 500 components by market cap to their respective quarter-to-date performance.


S&P 500 Biggest 25 Stocks - YTD Performance
Dark red dominates the year to date returns — especially among the large cap names like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL).

Amazon (AMZN) has lost just over half its value this year, while Tesla (TSLA) and Meta Platforms (META) have seen their market value cut by two-thirds, pushing them outside the top 10 biggest stocks in the index after having crossed the $1 trillion mark last year.

All of those prior names — save for Microsoft — are sporting deep red returns for the quarter as well, which highlights the difficulty in relying on past winners this cycle.

And the outperformers are instructive, with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B) up 13% for the quarter. Despite its outsized holding in Apple stock, Berkshire hasn't been held back from gains this year thanks to its profitable financial, industrial, and energy holdings.

Health care, financials, energy, and consumer staples companies are all well-represented among the winners in the fourth quarter. Top performers include JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Merck (MRK), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Proctor & Gamble (PG) — all up 20% or more.


S&P 500 Biggest 25 Stocks - QTD Performance
Fast forward a year, and the leadership board will undoubtedly look quite different. But a return to the status quo of the 2010s is probably off the table.

The challenge for many investors operating in today's market is that sustained outperformance by value and cyclical stocks over growth stocks hasn't been seen in a generation.

Most investors simply have no memory of the last time this dynamic took hold, and therefore, no reference point for a time when tech wasn't the stock market's pre-eminent sector.

This leaves the table set for another year — or perhaps several — which looks decidedly unlike anything we've seen in decades."

MY COMMENT

A nice historical data article. BUT......this article and everything else this year.....TOTALLY IGNORES the fact that the BIG CAP tech companies.....MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, etc, etc, etc......that make up the cream of the crop of the SP500.....are NOT young growth stocks. These are mature companies that for the most part have been around for at least 20-30 years or more.

The reality is.....these companies are like investing in PG or Colgate, or PM in the old days.

 

Looks good to me.

Stocks gain to start penultimate trading day of 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-29-2022-124319468.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks charged higher at Thursday's open as investors push through the final two trading days of the year.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) advanced 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 180 points, or 0.5%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 1.1%. The moves come after all three major averages erased more than 1% in the previous trading session.

Megacap tech giants Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) all clawed higher in morning trading, helping lift the broader market after a sell-off over the past two days. The risk-off trade this week saw Apple fall below the key technical $130 level and Amazon become the third of FAANG+ stocks — along with Meta (META) and Netflix (NFLX) — to erase its pandemic gains and close below its March 2020 COVID crash low on Tuesday.

Investors continued to watch Tesla (TSLA) after the stock snapped a seven-day losing streak Wednesday after a multi-session selling spree over concerns around the shutdown at its factory in China. Shares rose 4.5% early into the session. Tesla still remains on pace for its worst month, quarter, and year.

Electric vehicle peers Rivian (RIVN), Lucid (LCID), and Nio (NIO) all recovered alongside Tesla after electric carmakers were under pressure all week.

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) shares fell 7.4%, even as the egg producer reported fiscal second-quarter earnings beat analyst estimates, with revenue jumping 110% over last year as inflation and the bird flu pushed up egg prices.

Elsewhere on Thursday, biotech company Kala Pharmaceuticals (KALA) rose 22%, extending a surge after the stock quadrupled Wednesday following the Food and Drug Administration's acceptance of the company’s investigational new drug application for treatment of persistent corneal epithelial defect.

On the economic data front, filings for unemployment insurance rose to 225,000 in the week ended Dec. 24. from the prior week's reading of 216,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The print came in on part with consensus estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

In other markets, oil extended a drop after its recent rally, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures — the U.S. benchmark — falling 2.2% to trade just above $77.

U.S. Treasury yields dipped, and the U.S. dollar index also retreated.

Selling pressures across December spurred by concerns around rising interest rates and a looming economic downturn have continued into the end of the month and thrown a wrench into the seasonal year-end rally that typically occurs in the final trading days of the year.

"Many factors historically have driven the traditional environment supportive of year-end stock rallies, such as the investing of holiday bonuses, a seasonal optimism among consumers and investors, and tax considerations," AXS Investments CEO Greg Bassuk said in a note. "However, with 2022’s dismal stock and bond performance expected to carry into 2023, along with ongoing inflationary concerns, uncertain Fed policy, and lingering geopolitical tensions, investors won’t be receiving any holiday gifts this year for their portfolios."

U.S. and global stocks are on pace for their worst drop since the 2008 financial crisis."

MY COMMENT

I mentioned the other day that my account was about one more day of losses to once again hit my YTD LOW for the forth time this year. Each of the other times I hit that low the markets rallied back up. Are we seeing the same thing starting now? Perhaps.

We are in a nasty bear market. Stocks have made an attempt to break lower from the current level a number of times this year. Each time it failed. I see it this way.......stocks will either pull back from the current lows and move back up.......OR......they will break lower and expose the markets to another 5-10% drop.

 

By the way......I attribute much of the gains today to the fact that the Ten YEAR Treasury yield is currently DOWN today.

 

Woe is Amazon.

Amazon lost half its value this year as tech stocks got crushed and recession fears grew

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/29/amazon-shed-half-its-value-in-2022-as-tech-stocks-got-crushed.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Amazon shares are about to wrap up their worst year since 2000 and second worst on record.
• The stock has plunged 51% this year, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap.
• Among the most valuable tech companies, Amazon still performed better than Meta and Tesla.

It was a brutal year for mega-cap tech stocks across the board. But 2022 was especially rough for Amazon

Shares of the e-retailer are wrapping up their worst year since the dot-com crash. The stock has tumbled 51% in 2022, marking the biggest decline since 2000, when it plunged 80%. Only Tesla, down 68%, and Meta, off 66%, have had a worse year among the most valuable tech companies.

Amazon’s market cap has shrunk to about $834 billion from $1.7 trillion to start the year. The company fell out of the trillion-dollar club last month.

Much of Amazon’s misfortunes are tied to the economy and macro environment. Soaring inflation and rising interest rates have pushed investors away from growth and into companies with high profit margins, consistent cash flow and high dividend yields.

But Amazon investors have had other reasons to exit the stock. The company is contending with slowing sales, as predictions of a sustained post-Covid e-commerce boom didn’t pan out. At the height of the pandemic, consumers came to depend on online retailers like Amazon for goods ranging from toilet paper and face masks to patio furniture. That drove Amazon’s stock to record highs as sales soared.

As the economy reopened, consumers gradually returned to shopping in stores and spending on things like travel and restaurants, which caused Amazon’s impressive revenue growth to fade. The situation only worsened at the start of this year, as the company confronted higher costs tied to inflation, the war in Ukraine and supply chain constraints.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, who succeeded founder Jeff Bezos at the helm in July 2021, admitted that the company hired too many workers and overbuilt its warehouse network as it raced to keep up with pandemic-era demand. It’s since paused or abandoned plans to open some new facilities, and its head count shrank in the second quarter.





Amazon’s 2022 drop vs. Tesla and Meta

Jassy has also embarked on a wide-ranging review of the company’s expenses, resulting in some programs being shuttered and a hiring freeze across its corporate workforce. Last month, Amazon began making what’s expected to be the largest corporate job cuts in its history, aiming to lay off as many as 10,000 employees.

Even Amazon’s cloud computing segment, typically a refuge for investors, recorded its weakest revenue growth to date in the third quarter.

Looking to 2023, several analysts have reduced their estimates, citing persistent macro headwinds and continued softness in online retail and cloud computing.

Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney, in a Dec. 18 note, lowered his 2023 estimates for Amazon, predicting total retail sales growth for the year of 6%, down from 10%. He cut his forecast for annual Amazon Web Services revenue growth to 20% from 26%.

Still, Mahaney said he remains bullish on Amazon’s long-term prospects, calling it a “buffet buy” because of its assortment of businesses. He pointed to Amazon’s growing share in retail, cloud and advertising, its apparent insulation from risks such as ad privacy changes, and its continued investment in areas like groceries, health care and logistics.

“For those investors who utilize 2-3 year time horizons and are looking to take advantage of the recent dislocation in high quality ’Net stocks, we highly recommend AMZN,” wrote Mahaney, who has an outperform rating on the stock. While recessionary concerns are real and earnings estimate will have to come down, “AMZN remains arguably the highest quality asset we cover in terms of Revenue and Profit outlooks,” Mahaney wrote."

MY COMMENT

The big question with this company is......MANAGEMENT. They have lost a huge number of top executives over the past year or two. I have not seen anything that give me confidence in the new top management of the company over the past year.

I do still own the stock and will continue to do so. BUT.....we will see over the next couple of years if the current management is able to cut it. I have my doubts.

The stock is now NEGATIVE for the past THREE YEARS.

 

Well.....a very nice day today. I am NOT calling it a Santa rally......I will call it a bounce off the bottom rally. This is the forth time this year that my portfolio value has been at about this bottom year to date. Each time instead of going lower it bounced up. Looks like it did the bounce again today. As a result I now have.....about 4 days of nasty down market money......as a cushion from my YTD low.

 

Many months ago when my account hit approximately the same YTD low as I hit yesterday......I called it as a soft market bottom with perhaps another 10% drop left. If we can get another day of gains tomorrow my account will be back off that bottom once again. As stated above I now have about a four day cushion. If we can get some more gains tomorrow I might be able to extend my cushion to about 5-6 days of losses.

TODAY.....all stocks in the green nicely. A clean sweep. I also got in a beat on the SP500 by 0.58%. I improved my YTD LOSS to (-28.6%)

Lets keep up the good work tomorrow to close out the week and the year.

 

Looks like the shorts.....took it in the shorts today.

Stocks surge, Nasdaq rallies, Tesla rebounds on second to last trading day of 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-29-2022-124319468.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks charged higher Thursday, led by a rebound across technology stocks, as investors attempted to salvage the last two trading days of a brutal year for markets.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 1.7%, snapping two days of losses, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) jumped nearly 350 points, or 1.1%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) surged 2.6%. The moves come after all three major averages erased more than 1% in the previous trading session.

Megacap tech giants Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) all gained 2.8%, helping lift the broader market after a sell-off over the past two days. The risk-off trade this week saw Apple fall below $130, which investors have flagged as a key technical level. Meanwhile, Amazon become the third of FAANG+ stocks — along with Meta (META) and Netflix (NFLX) — to erase its pandemic gains and close below its March 2020 COVID crash low on Tuesday.

Netflix (NFLX) rallied 5.1%, rising from a seven-week low, on the heels of a two-step upgrade by CFRA analyst Kenneth Leon to Buy from Sell.

Investors continued to watch a rebound in Tesla (TSLA) after the stock snapped a seven-day losing streak Wednesday after a multi-session selling spree over concerns around the shutdown at its factory in China. Shares rose 8.1% Thursday.

Electric vehicle peers Rivian (RIVN), Lucid (LCID), and Nio (NIO) all recovered alongside Tesla after electric carmakers were under pressure all week.

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) shares sank 14.5%, even as the egg producer reported fiscal second-quarter earnings beat analyst estimates, with revenue jumping 110% over last year as inflation and the bird flu pushed up egg prices.

Elsewhere on Thursday, biotech company Kala Pharmaceuticals (KALA) spiked 99%, extending a surge after the stock quadrupled Wednesday following the Food and Drug Administration's acceptance of the company’s investigational new drug application for treatment of a rare eye disease.

On the economic data front, filings for unemployment insurance rose to 225,000 in the week ended Dec. 24. from the prior week's reading of 216,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The print came in on part with consensus estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

In other markets, oil extended a drop after its recent rally, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures — the U.S. benchmark — settling at $78.39 on Thursday.

U.S. Treasury yields dipped, and the U.S. dollar index also retreated.

Selling pressures across December spurred by concerns around rising interest rates and a looming economic downturn have continued into the end of the month and thrown a wrench into the seasonal year-end rally that typically occurs in the final trading days of the year.

"Many factors historically have driven the traditional environment supportive of year-end stock rallies, such as the investing of holiday bonuses, a seasonal optimism among consumers and investors, and tax considerations," AXS Investments CEO Greg Bassuk said in a note. "However, with 2022’s dismal stock and bond performance expected to carry into 2023, along with ongoing inflationary concerns, uncertain Fed policy, and lingering geopolitical tensions, investors won’t be receiving any holiday gifts this year for their portfolios."

U.S. and global stocks remain on pace for their worst drop since the 2008 financial crisis."

MY COMMENT

TOO bad for the media.....they have been gleefully pushing the negativity and driving stocks down recently. It is just RIDICULOUS how low many of the BIG CAP ICONIC stocks are right now. If I had the extra money right now......I would be buying every day.....as the markets go down. This is a HUGE opportunity for long term investors......once things turn around and we get out of this bear market. the compounding will be enormous for any quality stocks being bought at these levels and at the lower levels that might come after the first of the year.

 

AND......of course.....many people are doing the EXACT OPPOSITE of what they should be doing right now.

Half of Gen Zers say they don’t see a point in saving money until things return to 'normal' — instead they're investing in themselves. Here's what that looks like

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/half-gen-z-see-no-100000808.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"For 18-year-old Anousha Ahmed, her first job meant freedom.

“My focus wasn't really saving. It was more like, now I have all this discretionary income. I can do whatever I want,” says Ahmed, who is based in Virginia.

She briefly worked at a swim school for children earlier this year, which earned her some fun money for experiences like concerts, traveling, eating at restaurants and going roller skating.

Ahmed isn’t the only one in her age bracket putting savings on the back burner. Fidelity Investments’ 2022 State of Retirement Planning report found that half of Gen Zers don’t see a point in saving money until things return to “normal,” while 56% put their retirement planning on hold during the pandemic.

These percentages were slightly lower for millennials, and significantly lower for the Gen X and boomer generations, who are much closer to or are already in their retirement years.

Ahmed says the COVID-19 pandemic showed plenty of young people how quickly their “normal” can be stolen away — so she has prioritized making up for those missed years with exciting experiences and good memories.

Young people are investing in themselves

With all the economic uncertainty going on right now, many young folks may be seeking some sort of control, says Lauryn Williams, a certified financial planner and founder of Worth Winning, a company that helps young professionals organize their finances.

She points to stubborn inflation — the consumer price index was a distressing 7.1% in November — and stock market volatility. Americans are facing financial strain due to rising housing and grocery costs. It's also difficult to put faith in the stock market, which has seen some significant ups and downs this year.

Williams said a client recently told her, “I don't want to lose anything else, I feel like I'm losing money all the time.” That may lead to people holding onto their cash or putting their money into things they can control — even if it’s not the most strategic way to spend their money.

If they’re feeling uncertain about the future, Williams suggests young people consider investing in themselves and their professional growth — like starting their own businesses or furthering their education.

That’s exactly what Ahmed has planned. A first year student at University of Virginia, she intends to major in commerce with a concentration on information tech and management. And she’s mulled starting her own business as well.

Right now, when she’s looking at which degree to pursue and even which classes she’ll take, she wants to make sure they’re ones that will give her a “high return on investment” at the end of it.

“It's like, you make yourself better so that you can make more money in the long run.”

When should young people start saving for retirement?

The sooner you start saving for retirement, the better, Williams advises. You may be able to benefit from compound growth — which means your savings will grow with interest over time.

Assuming you begin to save at age 25, most experts recommend you put away at least 15% of your pre-tax income for retirement each year.

However, a report from Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies — a division of the nonprofit Transamerica Institute that focuses on saving and financial planning for retirement — found that Gen Z investors typically start saving for retirement at the age of 19.

But you need to be able to adapt and rejig your priorities based on what’s happening in your life, Williams adds.

Not putting money into a retirement fund isn’t necessarily a bad thing, she explains — your retirement plan might just look a little different if you’ve decided to focus on your professional growth instead.

“More young professionals are betting on themselves,” Williams explains. “They're looking at the investment in themselves as their retirement plan, like I can fill this thing. And that's going to be the payoff.”

“Right now, [they may be thinking] I don't want to put money into a retirement account, because that's taking away from the dollars that I have been able to invest in myself and what I'm trying to do to achieve my dreams and create an impact for the world.”

It’s important to find the right balance with your finances

Regardless of which demographic they fall into, many people used the pandemic to increase their savings, which then translated into more fun money they could spend when lockdowns were lifted and restrictions eased.

You need to keep asking yourself questions, says Williams. You may find yourself in situations where you’ll have to choose between being able to securely spend $50,000 in your retirement or having a good time with your family and friends right now.

She tells her clients to find areas in their lives where they can make adjustments on their spending: “Where can I clip back in some other areas so that I can do the things that are at the top of my priority list?”

Ahmed’s current goal is to be more cognizant of the value of money and how to save it.

“I spent a pretty good chunk of the amount of money that I made at my job already. I would just go through it. Like it was nothing,” she admits.

The start of college in the fall offered Ahmed a clean slate to get on track with her finances and formalize a budget for her expenses — which is already a head above the rest of her generation.

“The biggest thing is always that planning piece of the puzzle,” Williams notes."

MY COMMENT

PARTY ON.......no need to worry......after all you are only young once. Simply DELUSIONAL thinking going on here. BUT......do I care......NO. It is your money do whatever you wish with it.

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR......and.....good riddance, dont let the door hit you on the way out 2022.

A fitting open today considering the rest of the year. Of course.....nothing will be any different next week.......but.....we are moving forward and out there in the future somewhere is the next bull market lurking and ready to strike when it is least expected and when the negativity is rampant.

At least the one day rally yesterday gave me a 3-4 day cushion so I will not hit my YTD low again this year. I can start over next year......a fresh start and a new beginning.

 

A nice little article.

Why 2023 will be like 1967’s ‘Summer of Love’ for the stock market

https://nypost.com/2022/12/25/why-2023-will-be-like-1967s-summer-of-love-for-the-stock-market/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Hot inflation and recession fears. Spiking interest rates from the Fed. Divisive US politics. A regional war overseas with global repercussions. I’m not talking about 2022 – I’m talking about 1966.

A familiar set of fears dogged stocks during the year that also gave us the Chevy Camaro, the NFL-AFL merger and “How the Grinch Stole Christmas.” But a year later, 1967 delivered not only the “Summer of Love,” but also a stunning rally for stocks as economic fears faded. This year has been uncannily 1966ish. Expect a startling, 1967-like bull market in the year ahead.


Hippies and teenagers dancing relaxing in August 1967. That year delivered not only the “Summer of Love,” but also a stunning rally for stocks as economic fears faded.
Popperfoto via Getty Images
Markets always move most on surprises — gaps between expectations and what actually ends up happening. When political, cultural and economic fears are excessive, even minor positives provide powerful upside. Anything that’s less worse than feared triggers bullish relief. Bear markets build excessive pessimism naturally.


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1967 Chevrolet Camaro
The Enthusiast Network via Getty

Janis Joplin performs with her group Big Brother and the Holding Company in 1969.
AP


San Francisco hippies in 1967.
AP

Timothy Leary addresses crowd in San Francisco in 1967.
AP

South Vietnamese troops hold a position in the Saigon area during the Tet Offensive in 1968.
AP


Jefferson Airplane in 1968.
AP


US forces in Vietnam in 1966.
AP
In 1966, the S&P 500 endured a minor bear market — a 22% rout that started in early January and bottomed in October (yes – just like 2022). The Vietnam War escalated. Major social and infrastructure legislation added to divisive midterm elections. Disdain for President ‘LBJ’ was different, but in many ways parallel, to sentiment among many voters for President ‘Brandon’. Inflation exploded. So the Fed hiked short-term interest rates – less than now – but by historical standards significantly, steadily and scarily.


Recession fears reigned. Bears like to talk about “capitulation” — that panicky, violent, cascading selloff that typically ends bear markets. They liked to talk about it in 1966, too. But capitulation never came. Instead, October began a new bull market, with stocks rising just like they rose this quarter. After a stealthily positive 6% fourth quarter, stocks soared 24% in 1967.

Sentiment in 2022 was – and still is – not good when it comes to stocks. Virtually all surveys show dourness, like the American Association of Individual Investors’ retail investor gauge. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey hovers near all-time record lows — which only happens when higher prices are looming. A 2023 recession is overwhelmingly expected. Fully 68% of respondents in Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey expect one.


University of Michigan

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Reality is brighter. A large minority expected we were in a recession last quarter, too. But US third quarter GDP grew a surprisingly strong 3.2% annualized, reversing two quarterly declines (skewed by inventory change and imports). Almost all other major nations saw positive, improved GDP growth.

Nevertheless, the recession expectation consensus grew anyway. This, mind you, wasn’t an altogether bad thing. The longer firms expect recession, the more they prepare. Companies have spent this year cutting inventories and pruning headcounts. As a result, a recession has become less likely, and if it does come, it will be milder than it would have been otherwise. Forewarning is mitigation.

Likewise, the CEOs of almost every big bank – from Jamie Dimon to Jane Fraser — have openly, long and often, trashed the US economy and predicted a recession. But recessions always bring savagely rising default rates on their loans, pummeling earnings. If these bankers were truly fearful of defaults, these bankers presumably would have already scuttled their lending.


Lyndon B Johnson served from 1963 to 1969.
AP

When political, cultural and economic fears are excessive, even minor positives provide powerful upside.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
They haven’t. As I noted in this column Dec. 13, November’s US loan growth hit 11.8% year-over-year, accelerating from year-end 2021’s 4.0%, showing monthly growth that’s notably inconsistent with looming recession. Ditto for global loan growth, which has grown every month since March.

Got your head scratching? Watch what banks do, not what they say. What they say is sentiment. What they do is reality.

And the Fed hikes? Everyone thinks those kill the economy. Usually, they do. But every time they spiked rates this year, loan growth galloped faster. Why? Because banks’ future lending profitability rises now with rate hikes. And when they lend, the borrowers spend. They don’t sit on it. Historically, bank lending costs usually paralleled the bank overnight borrowing cost controlled by the Fed. Not now, as I have also noted here on Dec. 13.

For that reason, today’s much ballyhooed “inverted yield curve” fears — 3-month Treasury yields exceeding 10-year rates — are overblown. In September 1966, the Fed also inverted the yield curve. Yet the bulk of the inversion came later, after stocks bottomed, like this time. And no recession struck.


Expect a startling, 1967-like bull market in the year ahead.. Above, San Francisco in 1967
Corbis via Getty Images
Politics? Like 1966, 2022 was a midterm election year. As I detailed in this column Nov. 16, midterms create stock market rocket fuel — averaging 18%-plus returns during the third years of US presidents’ terms. They have been stronger still, averaging 28%, when the second year was negative, like 2022 and 1966 were. Stocks surged 24% in 1967.

Unlike 1967, 2023 bond returns should flow positive, reversing 2022 as 2023 inflation risk falls, as I also have noted in this column. Long-term interest rates will price that lower risk.

Despite all of this, I hear what you’re saying: 2022 hasn’t been pretty. Pessimism feels like a safe, comfortable bet. But maybe it’s also possible that folks have been bracing for the worst long enough.

As we ring in the New Year, I would suggest we instead brace for a pleasant surprise. I can’t promise another “Summer of Love” for 2023 when it comes to sex, drugs or rock ‘n’ roll. But I do believe the New Year will deliver a surprisingly strong stock market globally."

MY COMMENT

OK....I will take this little prediction for 2023.

I left the photos in this little article since I remember much about those times. I was a JR in High School during that time. As High School kids we were oblivious to what was going on in the markets and the economy. We were very much aware of the war in Vietnam since many of us had fathers that were over there in 1966-1968......including me.

It is nice to see some reasoned discussion in this little article WITHOUT the constant FEAR MONGERING that is rampant right now in the media.

Somehow we lived through those economic times and the much worse economic times of the late 1970's and 1980's.....and STILL.....managed to rack up significant money in the markets over our lifetimes........well, at least some of us.

 

The end to a long year for investors.

Stock market live news updates: Stocks open lower on final trading day of 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-december-30-2022-113654551.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks opened lower on the final trading day of the year.

Shortly after the opening bell on Wall Street, the S&P 500 was down 0.5%, the Dow off 0.3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell as much as 0.8%.

Friday's trading session will mark the last of a year investors won't soon forget.

The S&P 500 is on pace for its worst year since the 2008 financial crisis, while the bond market suffered through its worst year in modern history.

On Thursday, markets rallied sharply with the Nasdaq gaining 2.6% while the Dow and S&P 500 rose more than 1%. These gains, of course, did little to ease the pain felt by investors this year, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq set to finish 2022 down more than 30%.

In a note to clients on Thursday, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group noted Thursday's gains were driven by the worst-performing stocks of the year, a dynamic the firm called a "dash for trash" from investors.

Investors will keep an eye on shares of Tesla (TSLA) on Friday after the stock gained 8% on Thursday, a sharp rebound that followed two days of selling which sent Tesla shares to their lowest level since August 2020.

Shares were higher by about 6% early Friday. Tesla shares have lost over 65% this year and more than 35% this month.

Early Friday, the price of crude oil was little-changed, as oil paced towards annual gains for the second-straight year. Though after the price of crude oil surged of more than 50% in 2021 and then doubled early this year, oil is set to finish the year up a more modest 7%.

In currency markets, the dollar was slightly weaker early Friday but remained set for its biggest annual gain since 2015 as interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve boosted demand for the dollar.

The Fed's action also boosted yields across the Treasury curve and the broader bond market, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note set to finish the year around 3.85% after kicking off 2022 near 1.5%.

The economic and corporate earnings calendars are set to bring investors no new updates on Friday.

Crypto markets also endured a challenging 2022, as bitcoin (BTC-USD) is set to finish the year down 65%. Early Friday, the price of bitcoin was off about 0.9% to trade below $16,500."

MY COMMENT

As usual.....nothing new. Looks like some people are taking advantage of the bargain price of TESLA stock.

JUST ANOTHER DAY IN PARADISE.