If you want a year in review of TESLA stock and the company.....here you go. Having just lived through everything in this article....I will not post it. this article is the first of many articles that are going to FLOOD the media over the next couple of weeks. There are going to be hundreds of articles reviewing year 2022 and the markets. I will IGNORE all of them......I dont need to re-live what I just experienced in real life. Tesla stock: A look at a very bad 2022 for Elon Musk’s EV company https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-timeline-2022-elon-musk-ev-company-142300838.html MY COMMENT When year is over.....I record the results of my two funds.....Fidelity Contra and SP500 Index.......and simply move on. That year is history. Personally it is my choice to NOT record any particular market or account data....other than the return or loss for the year. The past is over and not relevant to the future. My investing focus is ALL......forward looking.
And yes......I will end the year the same way I started it. I remain fully invested for the long term as usual.
The BIG QUESTION for investors right now is how long does this bear market last. My view is the PROBABLE range is 6 months to 2 years. That does not mean that stocks will continue to collapse like they did in 2022. It means that we might linger at these levels for some time with the usual drops and rallies that are normal in a bear market.
You dont see many articles in the media with this tone lately.....yes.....there is hope. Money managers are hopeful about the stock market in 2023. How they plan to invest https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/30/mon...k-market-in-2023-how-they-plan-to-invest.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points A new CNBC poll finds investors are generally feeling upbeat about the market next year. They’re also optimistic about inflation easing, but they are worried about the Fed. More than 6 out of 10 said they have lost confidence in Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Despite this year’s market havoc, investors are feeling fairly optimistic going into 2023, according to a new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. Four out of 10 predict that the S&P 500 will rise 6% to 10% next year. Nearly 2 in 10 are calling for gains between 11% and 19%. Meanwhile, 6% are calling for stocks to jump by more than 20%, which would wipe out this year’s losses for the S&P 500, which is poised to end 2022 lower by 19%. We polled about 400 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money about where they stood on the markets for the new year. The survey was conducted over the last week. Risk in 2023 and the Fed Nearly half of the respondents are feeling optimistic that the Federal Reserve can orchestrate some sort of “soft landing” for the economy as the central bank continues to raise interest rates. Indeed, policymakers earlier this month increased rates by half a point to the highest level in 15 years. Notably, when asked about their biggest concern for the market, an overwhelming 73% of the participating money managers said it was Fed policy. Coming in second place was a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Nine percent of the participants said labor and supply line problems are their biggest fear. Meanwhile 6% cited a massive resurgence of Covid, which is wreaking havoc in China right now. Inflation and the investing environment About 4 out of 5 participating money managers predict that inflation will continue to ease in the new year. Key investing themes for 2023 are also emerging: 72% of those polled said they will focus on value over growth in the new year. Energy stocks will also be a favorite among investors in 2023, with 41% of those polled saying that’s where they’ll be concentrating. Participants were evenly split between high dividend stocks, financial names and health-care companies, with 31% favoring each of those categories in the year ahead. Respondents were also asked which of these five famous stocks would they consider buying for 2023: Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Netflix and Meta. The overwhelming winners were Amazon and Alphabet tying at 37%. Tesla received 17% of the vote, with Netflix and Meta rounding out the list. All five of those names have been crushed in the past year. In recent months, however, Netflix has staged somewhat of a recovery. Shares of the streaming giant are up 63% over the past six months, but they are still down 51% for the year. On Tesla, 61% of the participants said they were losing confidence in the stock and the company’s CEO, Elon Musk. Finally, don’t expect money managers to wholeheartedly embrace cryptocurrency in the new year: 81% said they wouldn’t touch it." MY COMMENT Of course.......these "professionals" have no better ability to predict the future than anyone else. SO.....not something a regular person would want to use as a basis for any investing move. What I do like about this little poll......is the fact that the view is not as overwhelmingly negative as we are often lead to believe.
Have a GREAT and HAPPY new year weekend everyone. I will be playing tomorrow. We have a little New Years show about 100 miles away. It will be nice to make some money and live life. Although....most people I know.....myself included...... dont really like playing on New Years. Too many drunks and crazy people out there.
I thought this was interesting. I have just done a summary to avoid the political content. Tax Hikes Hitting Americans on Jan. 1 https://www.atr.org/list-of-biden-tax-hikes-hitting-americans-on-jan-1/ $6.5 Billion Natural Gas Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills $12 Billion Crude Oil Tax Which Will Increase Household Costs $1.2 Billion Coal Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills $74 Billion Stock Tax Which Will Hit Your Nest Egg — 401(k)s, IRAs and Pension Plans $225 Billion Corporate Income Tax Hike Which Will Be Passed on to Households
Of course these are some of the dumbest moves made. I notice that a good number of this is energy related. Yes, lets cripple our current system in favor of another, that is frankly no where near capable of being sustainable at the moment. As I have stated before, I am not against alternative sources, but the over ambitious and punishing legislation to simply favor the "green stuff" is just the wrong way to go about it. In addition, the government continues to blow our money on all of their little pet projects. When they need more, they simply just hide all of these little riders in enormous bills and thousands of pages. They have never been able to stay within budget, but expect so many of us to do so. They are truly disconnected from the reality of most citizens.
Okay, enough about the modern day thieves above.... Yes, the last market day of our rough investing year. Sure, we will enter next week with the same old issues, but there is always something about turning the calendar over in a new year that inspires some hope, faith, and belief that we will endure and survive whatever may come our way. We have outlasted this year and are still standing. The predictions for the upcoming year will be all over the place. None of those matter. What does matter, is believing in whatever your plan is based on your financial goals. Your research and what works for you and the plan that guides you to financial security over the long haul.
Yep Smokie......the year is almost over and we have all survived. My account did not go to.....ZERO. LOL......I just looked and EVERY stock is in the RED so far today. For some perverse reason it made me smile. When I look at it I think......"the short term is so stupid".
HERE IS MY PORTFOLIO AT MARKET CLOSE ON THE LAST MARKET DAY OF 2022. I have no plans to sell anything or do anything. As a long term....fully invested all the time investor......I will do nothing in response to the current short term events and environment. AS USUAL.........HERE is my current PORTFOLIO MODEL. I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 59% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 41% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 10 stock portfolio. At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Honeywell Microsoft Nike Nvidia Tesla MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (72). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my ten stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis.
OK......THE YEAR IS OVER......for investors. It is in the bag.....what it is, it is. My portfolio is listed above and through this thread. Today I ended in the RED......slightly. I did manage to beat the SP500 on the last trading day of the year by a WHOPPING.......0.02%. My UP stocks today were.....TSLA, AAPL, and NVDA. Here is my total portfolio result for the year 2022 (includes all stocks and funds): (-28.76%) I will post individual results for my two funds....Fidelity Contra fund and Schwab SP500 Index fund.....when they are available.
HERE is the day today in the markets. S&P 500 falls 19.4% in 2022, worst year since 2008 financial crisis https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-december-30-2022-113654551.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks closed lower across the board on Friday to finish off the worst year for the U.S. stock market since the financial crisis. When the year's final closing bell rang on Friday, the S&P 500 and Dow were each off about 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell a more modest 0.1%. With Friday's losses, the S&P 500 fell 19.4% in 2022, its largest calendar-year decline since a 38% drop in 2008. Closing at 3,839.50 on Friday, the S&P 500 now stands at the same level as March 2021. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 33% and stands at the same level as July 2020. The Dow, meanwhile, fell a comparably modest 9% in 2022, while the bond market suffered through its worst year in modern history. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from around 1.5% at the beginning of 2022 to settle at 3.88% on Friday. This move triggered a sell-off across fixed income markets and weighed on housing, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate finishing 2022 near 6.4%, its highest year-end level since 2001. Tesla (TSLA) shares rose 1.1% on Friday, a move that followed the stock gaining some 8% on Thursday in a bid to recover sharp losses suffered this year and this month. Tesla shares lost over 65% this year and more than 30% in December. WTI crude oil gained more than 2.5% on Friday, finishing 2022 at $80.40 per barrel and giving oil its second-straight annual gain. Though after the price of crude oil surged more than 50% in 2021 and then doubled early this year, WTI finished with a more modest 7% for the year. The modest gain in oil prices, however, belies the strength seen by energy stocks in 2022, with the energy sector (XLE) rising some 57% this year, the only one of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 to log gains this year. The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike campaign in 2022 weighed particularly heavy on technology stocks. The technology sector (XLK) fell 28% this year, its biggest drop since 2008, while communication services (XLC) — which was added to the S&P 500 in 2018 — logged its biggest drop on record, falling 38% in 2022, the most of any sector in the S&P 500. In currency markets, the dollar was weaker on Friday but logged biggest annual gain since 2015 as interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve boosted demand for the greenback. Crypto markets also endured a challenging 2022, as bitcoin (BTC-USD) is set to finish the year down 65%. The price of bitcoin was little-changed on Friday to trade near $16,500." MY COMMENT The above pretty well sums up the various aspects of year 2022.
For the short.....four day week. DOW year end (-8.78%) DOW for the week (-0.16%) SP500 year end (-19.44%) SP500 for the week (-0.10%) NASDAQ 100 year end (-33.06%) NASDAQ 100 for the week (-0.45%) NASDAQ year end (-33.10%) NASDAQ for the week (-0.25%) RUSSELL year end (-21.56%) RUSSELL for the week +0.07%
WE ALL START CLEAN ON......TUESDAY. Looks like the markets are closed on Monday for New Years. So after midnight on Saturday and until the open on Tuesday....I will be able to say that my YTD in my account is......"0".
I remember those years. I don't doubt that we will likely have much better market conditions next year than we had this year, and gains instead of losses, but I don't think it will be because of any 'replay of history' or any of that the article seems to imply. In this particular case, I think the reversal of a common saying may be true: "The more things seem the same, the more they are different."
Yes, it's too bad that the American people don't get to vote. </sarcasm off> If we would clean house on all the scoundrels and shysters in BOTH parties, we could get back on track. This is NOT a political post!!! It's a CRIME REPORT post. The 600 people - ALL PARTIES - in D.C. who we have elected are ruining the country. That is to say, WE are ruining the country, because we keep re-electing the same people in the same parties.
I think the true powers that be like things the way they are on both sides, and they are not about to let us change that. Follow the money. That's all I want to say to keep it as apolitical as possible.
