I have nothing to back it up.....but....I strongly doubt that the JOLTS numbers are remotely accurate. We are seeing massive lay-offs at many big companies. We are seeing hiring freezes. It seems like the only place in the economy that we are seeing hiring is in minimum wage small business jobs and minimum wage service jobs......and of course....the government. My....."feeling"....is that the number of unfilled jobs is actually much lower than the number the government is putting out there.
Just what we need on a GREEN day.....the FED. Fed minutes: No rate cuts in 2023, inflation risk remains in focus https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-minutes-rate-cuts-2023-inflation-risk-focus-194814712.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "No Federal Reserve officials thought it’d be appropriate to begin cutting rates in 2023, and officials worried that easing in financial conditions could complicate the central bank's efforts to bring down inflation, according to internal discussions at their policy meeting three weeks ago. Minutes from the central bank's December policy meeting released Wednesday showed while Fed officials welcomed easing October inflation data, they stressed that it would take substantially more evidence of progress to be confident that inflation was coming down in a sustained manner. Officials noted that the Fed would need to maintain a “restrictive policy stance” until data gave central bankers confidence of easing inflation. Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions would muddle the Fed’s effort to bring down inflation. Several participants said the Fed’s median projection for rates to peak at 5.1%, above market expectations, underscored the Fed’s commitment to bring down inflation. "Participants generally observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2%, which was likely to take some time," the minutes said. "In view of the persistent and unacceptably high level of inflation, several participants commented that historical experience cautioned against prematurely loosening monetary policy." Officials viewed the job market as very strong, noting an unemployment rate near historically low levels, still strong payroll gains, a high level of job vacancies, and elevated nominal wage growth. Several participants commented that there were tentative signs of labor market imbalances improving, including declines in job openings and quits over the second half of 2022. Officials see a number of uncertainties surrounding the outlook for inflation stemming from factors abroad, such as China’s relaxation of its zero-COVID policies, Russia’s continued war with Ukraine, and effects of monetary policy from other major global central banks. Many Fed officials see the central bank needing to be able to balance two risks: that monetary policy isn’t tight enough to bring inflation down and that the lag effect of monetary policy could push the Fed to overtighten more than needed. A number of participants judged that the risks to economic outlook were weighted to the downside, noting the potential for more persistent inflation that could mean higher rates, curtailing growth. The Fed raised rates by 50 basis points in mid-December to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, the highest level since 2007. That marked a slowdown from the Fed's torrid string of four 75-basis-point rate hikes from June through November — its most aggressive stretch since the 1980s. The Fed projected last month that the federal funds rate would peak at a rate of 5.1% by the end of 2023. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the rate might have to go higher during his December 14 press conference, saying that “we’re not at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance yet.” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a voting member of the FOMC this year, said Wednesday that he sees the Fed raising rates a full percentage point from the current level of 4.25%-4.5% to a level of 5.4% and then hitting the pause button. MY COMMENT There is NOTHING here that has not been known for at least 6 months or more. Rate cuts.......brother.....the actions of the FED to date have achieved NOTHING. The job markets are still tight and strong. Inflation has barley budged. OBVIOUSLY.....the FED is not going to lower rates this year. They will.....however....stop raising rates some time over the next 4-6 months. At that point they can talk themselves blue in the face.....they will be irrelevant.
My view of the FED.....one or at most two more rate increases by 0.50%. After that one or two at 0.25%. That is all they will have the guts to do.
This is good news for Apple. World's largest iPhone factory back to 90% capacity in China: Report The factory is reportedly operating with 200,000 workers https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/worlds-largest-iphone-factor-resume-capacity-china
A POSITIVE day for the markets today....all the big averages were UP for the day. I my little account....I was as dead flat as you can be....... but a loss of $38 for the day. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.76%. I had six of ten stocks UP for the day.....nice. I also had AMZN, MSFT, HON, and GOOGL down for the day. I will take it.
A decent GREEN day for me today. A nice push back very late in the day. Agreed on the FED minutes released earlier today. Nothing that hasn't been blasted about and rehashed ad nauseam by the media and experts. The market appeared to eventually just ignore it for the most part.
I was looking at my account today. I have ten stocks that make up 61% of my account. The rest is in my two funds. The stocks......by percentage of my entire account.....are in this order from the highest to the lowest: AAPL COST MSFT NKE HD AMZN HON GOOG NVDA TSLA TESLA is the only stock that is not at the minimum 4.75% or more of my portfolio. TESLA represents 1% of my total portfolio value.
Looking forward to tomorrow to see if we can build on the positive averages today and broaden out the little one day rally we saw today.
I will mention.....there are many, many long term investing topics that I have talked about earlier in this long thread. I tend to NOT repeat those topics in the current discussions. I feel like since it is in the thread already...... there is no need to re-hash some old topic. This means that there is MUCH general......long term investing content and discussion.....earlier in the thread that is worthwhile, timeless, and worth reading.
OK...tomorrow and for the rest of the week, we continue with the words for investors posted yesterday: COURAGE..........ENDURE.
To continue with the recent AMAZON news. Amazon CEO says job cuts to exceed 18,000 roles https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-lay-off-over-17-234933595.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Reuters) -Amazon.com Inc's layoffs will now stretch to more than 18,000 roles as part of a workforce reduction it previously disclosed, Chief Executive Andy Jassy said in a public staff note on Wednesday. The layoff decisions, which Amazon will communicate starting Jan. 18, will largely impact the company's e-commerce and human-resources organizations, he said. The cuts amount to 6% of Amazon's roughly 300,000-person corporate workforce and represent a swift turn for a retailer that recently doubled its base pay ceiling to compete more aggressively for talent. Jassy said in the note that annual planning "has been more difficult given the uncertain economy and that we've hired rapidly over the last several years." Amazon has more than 1.5 million workers including warehouse staff, making it America's second-largest private employer after Walmart Inc. It has braced for likely slower growth as soaring inflation encouraged businesses and consumers to cut back spending and its share price has halved in the past year. It began letting staff go in November from its devices division, with a source telling Reuters at the time it was targeting 10,000 job cuts. In number, its layoffs now surpass the 11,000 job cuts at Facebook-parent Meta Platforms Inc as well as reductions at other tech-industry peers." MY COMMENT It will be interesting to see how the management at Amazon does over the next couple of years. It would DEFINITELY not be uncommon.....for a company like AMZN.....making the change over to non-founder management to go through a rough patch while trying to find the right person to lead the company.
Not to be a wise a--, but I could care less whether I am UP today or DOWN today... or whether the markets are UP or DOWN today. Honestly, it is basically irrelevant to me. Can somebody tell me why we should care about one day's results? Unless there was a major move - say 2-3% or more up or down in a single day? What I care about is what so many people here seem to value also: LONG TERM RESULTS. I don't see people here giving much discussion or consideration to inflation. If my investments had gained 6% in the last 12 months, I would still be DOWN 1.5% in terms of buying power. If my investments had lost 15% over the last 12 months - as many have, if not more - then I would be down 22.5% in terms of real money. (I have chosen to use 'buying power' and 'real money' interchangeably, not because they are truly synonymous, but because it may help some to understand what we're talking about). Maybe it's me, but I do find the main topics of conversation - not just in these forums, but other financial forums as well - to be less relevant and less meaningful than they could be and should be. This is NOT a criticism, as this is my favorite financial forum. And it's my fault as much as anyone's - I'm not contributing much, sadly. Just an observation, I guess. WXYZ, this is not a reflection on you. You do add a great deal of information and personal input, and I do appreciate that. Probably the only reason I posted this here is because that's where I happened to be at the time - and "Long Term Investor" is usually the most active part of the forums.
The long term is made up of a sum of the short term. Obviously one day isn’t necessarily that important in the grand scheme of things but this would be a very boring forum if WXYZ or others only posted on a time horizon considered long-term.
Yes. Howdy JWalker, There is no point in this forum or any other if there is no activity. The forum will simply seize to exist. If Investors only came to post their Quarterly Results This Forum Would be Useless. The Daily Conversation on the Current Events is What Keeps it Alive. -IndependentCandy14
LOL.......IndependentCandy Regarding "too much information". I try to give as much info on here as I can......without outing myself.....not that that would really matter. If someone was able to take those two data points and calculate the value of the account that I use to report on here.......and if they got an accurate result.....considering that there are ten daily moving stocks in that account in different percentages......they would get a value for that account between $700,000 and $1,000,000. I use that particular account on here since it is my CLEANEST account....rarely a draw out of the account......and only perhaps once a year money going in. So it is easier to just use the performance data on Schwab for purposes of this thread. I do have FOUR other accounts....two of which contain larger amounts: 1. A stock account set up the same way as my portfolio model on here. This account contains my half of my mom's estate (her stock account) from her death. I have talked about her mentor-ship of my investing and investing style on here many times. While my mom was still alive I managed this money for her last 15 years. 2. A family trust stock account, that belongs to me and my sibling, which is also set up like the portfolio model that I post on here. I have managed this account for a long time. Same as my portfolio model on here 3. A Schwab bank account that I use to receive my annuity payments each month. 4. A Schwab account with a single position of about $200 in the SP500 Index Fund. I am holding this account.....to become a vehicle......which will be funded in about 4 years as a living trust which on my death will become a permanent lifetime trust for my grandchild. In addition to the above i also manage one of my child's stock account. That one is simply all in the SP500 since they are not interested in investing and they contribute $500 to the account every month. They have a great government pension that they contribute to at work......but have still been able to rack up about $300,000 in their SP500 account over the past ten years. I also manage my siblings accounts which are similar to 1-4 above and are all invested in the same fashion as my portfolio model. they have also set up their financial life in retirement where they do not need to use any of their stock money. They are the family banker for my kids mortgages and enjoy getting the income from the interest on those loans All in all a good chunk of money.......but not in the category of....those that own a private jet.
I think the overwhelming majority of long term investors here or anywhere really don't "care" about the one day or short term results at any given time. It has been mentioned through out this lengthy thread...ignore the noise, the short term is nonsense, hang in for the long haul, keep moving forward, have a plan, and on and on. I also post some of the daily market results here. One reason, is I believe there are many that come through this thread on a daily basis to just see what is going on in the market and for the commentary about what is going on. One can check the market and at the same time get some information about long term investing. So, posting a red or green day for me is just information for the day. I think you are making an assumption that because we post daily stuff it somehow doesn't align with a thread titled "long term investor." I will not speak for anyone else, but I do it because I enjoy the interaction. From a long term investor stand point, it has absolutely no effect on my plan or what I am going to do long term. I could disappear from this forum and disconnect from almost all financial media for a lengthy period and not lose any sleep regarding my financial plan. As to your comment about this forum (and other forums) conversations being "less relevant and less meaningful than they could be and should be." I disagree. This thread is packed with some good information. It is a very long thread and there are some areas where it is daily market talk as well, but there is also plenty of discussion regarding long term discussion and the mindset to have for it. I might also mention, you are free to participate at anytime. You can also add your thoughts or opinions, you too can generate discussion about what you feel is important in long term investing. Frankly, to show up here and post that the discussions here are irrelevant when one doesn't participate is a bit of hypocrisy. To the inflation point. I think inflation has came up in this thread often. It touches everything. Gas, groceries, utilities, investments, savings, investing, and sitting in cash. As to my investment plan, I continue to buy discounted shares all the way throughout the bear market. I also buy shares when it is not. Your point about buying power/real money is not lost on me. I get it. As a long term investor, I keep on course with my plan for my investments, I maintain a healthy emergency fund, low debt, live within my means, and periodically review my plan. For me, I just try to show up here and offer encouragement and positive outlooks (most of the time anyway) to other long termers to stay on course, that it is worth it, to ignore all of the "expert" BS and have a good financial plan to secure your financial goals. I have often said this place can offer support and be a place to share ideas or simply motivation to stick to the plan. Again, join in and add your investing thoughts about long term or anything you feel is relevant. WXYZ has extended this invitation countless times throughout the thread. Join in...the more the better.
RAYAK. I feel the same way you do. I dont care about the day to day "stuff". BUT.....I also use this thread as a personal investing and market diary and blog for......."myself". So I post the daily stuff that i consider relevant or interesting as a former business person.....even though I am simply a long term investor. I post ANYTHING I can find that deals with long term investing. UNFORTUNATELY....there is not a lot of content on that topic out there day to day. That is about all anyone can do. Personally I avoid talking much about inflation since that would require me to get massively into politics. There is a lot I could say about the markets, business, long term investing and politics....I have very strong opinions. BUT....I dont want to turn this thread into the typical political thread with all the constant arguments and bickering. The way I see and view long term investing.......there is a limited amount of stuff that can be said. I dont want to repeat the same things over and over and over.....so if I have posted some thing earlier in this thread I tend to not talk about it again in much detail. I dont own this thread.......and to encourage discussion and participation......anyone can post anything they want on any sort of investing or money topic.....long term or otherwise. I also believe that posting the day to day thoughts and stuff......"MIGHT"....help younger or less experienced investors to see how to sit and wait out the bad times or the good times, the bear and bull markets, and have some hope and courage over the short term......which over time.....adds up to the long term. I often think that If I went back and stripped out all the day to day stuff from this thread I would have a pretty good outline and start on a book on long term investing.
You know......back about 4+ years ago when I started on this site....it seemed like the only long term investors on here were me and TomB16. Much of the content on Stockaholics was trading or shorter term oriented. Over the past 4+ years that has changed some. I see long term investors as the.....Rodney Dangerfield's.....of the investing world....they get no respect. I also see them as the silent majority of the investing world. It is a shame that there is not more....much more....day to day content on the topic.
AND.....I have said many times. Everyone on here should be very thankful that this site.....STOCKAHOLICS...is here for us. It is a lot of work to run and moderate a site like this. It is the BEST investing and trading site that I know of and have posted on over the last 25 years of message board posting. There are lots of great threads and posters on here on ALL aspects and styles of investing. All of us should encourage our friends and others to join and support this site.
