The Long Term Investor

Rest up this weekend......next week will be just as CRAZY as this week was.....if not more.

Same words for next week till they quit working.....COURAGE....ENDURE.

Heading out to a show today and tomorrow, going to make.......SOME MORE......money.

 

With all the focus on year end.....and.....the FED and economic data.......there has been little comment on the BIG EVENT......FORTH QUARTER EARNINGS.

Inflation data, banks kick off earnings season: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...report-inflation-bank-earnings-144340262.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"A stock market rally to kick off 2023 will be put to the test next week when investors face a highly-awaited inflation reading and the start of fourth quarter earnings season, which will be led by big banks.

Thursday morning will bring December's Consumer Price Index (CPI), a release likely to dictate bets on whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 0.25% or 0.50% at the start of next month.

Economists expect headline CPI rose 6.6% over the prior year in December, a downshift from the 7.1% increase seen in November, according to data from Bloomberg. On a month-over-month basis, CPI likely stayed flat.

Core CPI, which removes the volatile food and energy components of the report and is closely tracked by the Fed, is also expected to have risen at a slower pace last month, coming in at 5.7% after a 6% increase in November. Over the prior month, core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% after a 0.2% jump in November.

Policymakers monitor "core" inflation more closely due to its nuanced look at key inputs like housing, while the headline CPI figure has moved largely in tandem with volatile energy prices this year.

JPMorgan (JPM), the largest consumer bank in the U.S., will also deliver quarterly financial results along with industry peers Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Friday morning as fourth quarter earnings season gets underway.

Wall Street's banking giants — which have warned about the state of the economy, seen tremendous drop-offs in dealmaking revenues, and even begun trimming their workforces — are expected to offer the Street disappointing results.

Another 'encouraging' jobs report

On Friday, U.S. stocks soared after the latest monthly jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 223,000 in December as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%.

While these figures suggest an imbalance between labor supply and demand is still at hand, investors celebrated cooling wage growth as a sign the Fed may scale back its rate-hiking ambitions.

For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each gained roughly 1.5% while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1%. All three major averages surged more than 2% Friday.

"This is an encouraging jobs report for the Fed that shows the narrow path to a soft landing remains a possibility with wages cooling without requiring widespread job destruction," Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments said in a note Friday. "This print on its own doesn’t clearly support a 25- or a 50-basis-point hike at the next Fed meeting in February, and as a result, Thursday's CPI release could prove crucial for that decision."

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the group of Fed officials that vote on policy changes, is set to convene January 31-February 1 and deliver the first rate increase of 2023 and eighth of the current hiking cycle. Last month, the Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing total increases to its benchmark policy rate to 4.25% in 2022.

Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, head of multi-asset retail investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said Friday's jobs report adds to a series of economic releases that continue to place equal odds of a 25- or 50-basis-point rate increase at the next meeting. In other words, uncertainty remains.

"The [December jobs] report will most likely add to the growing narrative of a disinflationary environment crossing with a robust economy, and therefore a soft landing," Wilson-Elizondo said in emailed comments. "This could prove positive for stocks in the short-term; however, our positioning remains risk-off into 2023."

Wilson-Elizondo added: "It’s hard to see how risky assets can compete with approximately 5% yields in money market funds until more clarity is delivered on the inflation and growth mix. We expect the Fed to remain restrictive until there is clear evidence that tightness in the labor market is consistently improving.”

Bank earnings lead the way

JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo, along with asset management conglomerate BlackRock (BLK), are all set to report results in a flurry before the market open on Friday.

Banks typically benefit from central bank policy tightening, with higher interest rates boosting their net interest income — or the spread between a bank's earnings on lending activities and interest it pays to depositors — and net interest margins. However, challenging market conditions that have dealt a blow to dealmaking, a primary profit driver, are poised to offset other aspects of their business.

"We are not likely to see any traction in investment banking, as equity and debt underwriting, as well as merger and acquisition markets, are expected to have disappointing performance," Kenneth Leon, research director at CFRA Research, said in a note.

Leon also warned of "significant declines" in equity underwriting, including IPOs. According to a report on the IPO market last month from EY, 2022 saw just 1,333 initial public offerings worldwide based on data through Dec. 14, with these debuts raising a total of $179.5 billion — a 45% drop in listings raising and 61% fewer dollars raised compared to 2021.

Another notable component of bank earnings will be any insights credit card balances and savings accounts offer on the health of U.S. consumers.

Data last week from JPMorgan Asset Management, the bank's investment management arm, estimated "excess savings" for U.S. households now stand at $900 billion, down from a peak of $2.1 trillion in early 2021 and roughly $1.9 trillion at the beginning of last year. The drop shows inflation has effectively wiped out half of the savings Americans have accumulated since the pandemic began.

Even JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon warned in a recent interview that inflation may tip the U.S. economy into recession this year.

“Inflation is eroding everything I just said," Dimon noted, referring to consumer balance sheets that for now have held up, "and that trillion and a half dollars will run out sometime midyear next year."

Elsewhere on the calendar, investors will also get get a measure of real average hourly earnings, readings on import and export prices, and a consumer sentiment check from the University of Michigan's closely watched survey.

Earnings from Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), which said it was facing bankruptcy last week, Delta Air Lines (DAL), and UnitedHealth (UNH) are also notable reports on tap."

MY COMMENT

EVERYONE seems to be IGNORING earnings.....even though they start at the end of the coming week. I remember all the predictions by the experts that the forth quarter earnings are not going to be good. The fact that they have now totally shut up about earnings.....might be a good indicator. The bank earnings this week dont mean much to me.....as an indicator what to expect.

As to the FED meeting in early February.....they will raise rates either 0.50% or 0.75%. Even though people appear to be starting in on the same old fantasy thinking about a 0.25% increase......I dont believe there is any chance for that to happen. It WILL either be 0.50% or 0.75%.

 

I have the following earnings dates on my calendar.....although they are subject to change.

MSFT January 24
TSLA January 25
AAPL January 26
AMZN February 2
HON February 2
GOOG February 7
HD February 21
NVDA February 22
COST March 2
NKE March 20

 

That is a really nice open today. Every one of my stocks is up......and.....the gain I have so far for the day is a nice big one for this early in the morning. Every stock is UP.

So far......the trend that I saw last year about bouncing off my account low is holding. Before the big rally last week I was once again approaching my account low that I had hit four times in 2022. Now......just like in 2022.......I have bounced back off that account low and now have a cushion again.

This year is off to a nice start. We NEED to keep this little rally going and establish some positive feelings and momentum for the year.

 

My view is that we had a small recession in 2022. As to 2023......NO ONE will be surprised dif we have a recession.....we have been told to expect one for at least 6-10 months now. BUT......I actually dont expect one......I dont think it is going to happen. The economy and jobs are too strong. BUT.....just in case.

More Evidence a Recession Wouldn’t Shock Now

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...y/more-evidence-a-recession-wouldnt-shock-now

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


"When this many CEOs, fund managers and economists see imminent downturn, surprise power is minimal.

On the heels of December’s yucky manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs), services and composite PMIs are now rolling in and—once again—indicating broad-based contraction. Perhaps contraction is less broad-based than manufacturing, given services readings are closer to 50. Yet most are still below, suggesting contraction. Yet as we wrote earlier this week, what likely matters to stocks looking forward isn’t whether economies shrink, but whether any recession is a surprise or surprisingly nasty. A quick tour of the latest surveys of economists, CEOs and fund managers shows recession is a popular forecast this year, suggesting negative surprise power is quite limited.

Perhaps most striking: The Philadelphia Fed’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters, which tracks a few dozen economists’ GDP growth projections for the next several quarters. From their forecasts, the Philly Fed calculates the mean probability of GDP growing (or contracting) at a given rate. In Q4, economists put the mean probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months at 43.5%. That is the highest estimated probability in the series’ history, which begins in 1968.

Exhibit 1: Philly Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters


Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, as of 1/5/2023. Shaded areas indicate NBER recessions.

Exhibit 2 collates a number of other, similar surveys—all showing business leaders, economists and professional investors see a very high likelihood of recession this year.

Exhibit 2: Major Surveys at a Glance


Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, The Wall Street Journal, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Barron’s, Federal Reserve, PwC, AICPA and The Conference Board, as of 12/29/2022. Note: The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey doesn’t normally include questions about recession. But researchers elected to include a special set of questions on recession in October, which illustrates just how front-of-mind recession worries are presently.

In our view, there are a couple encouraging things to glean from this. One, perhaps most obviously, if a recession strikes, it won’t be a surprise. Not to the pros, not to the masses and not to stocks, which are well aware of these surveys and what they represent. Given stocks reflect all widely known information, they have probably already incorporated these projections into current prices. That probably has a lot to do with the bear market that began a year ago and, perhaps, the inverted yield curve. Therefore, if a recession becomes official, far from being a shocking bad thing that stocks will have to grapple with, it would just confirm whatever they already priced in. Events like that tend to ease uncertainty and help stocks move on.

Two, business leaders tend not to just sit on their hands and wait for economic data to confirm recession. Rather, falling stock prices, weak earnings projections and widespread recession forecasts create an incentive to get lean and mean to survive whatever bad times could lie ahead. A recession’s general purpose is to wring out accumulated excess—the more wringing, the deeper and longer they tend to last. But this time, we are already seeing a lot of those cuts—witness all the recent layoff announcements, many of which include plans to cut real estate holdings and investments. If companies are getting lean and mean now, that suggests there wouldn’t be much more to trim by the time recession becomes official—if it becomes official—which speaks to it probably being short and shallow. That also argues for stocks having pre-priced this risk."


MY COMMENT

EXACTLY. PLUS......I dont see much indications of recession right now at all. Unless business results or the economic data or jobs go into the toilet.........something I dont expect.......we will not even see a recession. With government spending like maniacs.......and.....the FED nearing the end of rate increases in the next 2-4 months.....i just dont see it.

Even if it happens.....do I really care? NO. I dont invest based on predicted or even actual recessions.

 

A good prediction for long term investors.

One More Prediction For 2023

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/01/one-more-prediction-for-2023/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"If I were a Wall Street strategist my 2023 outlook would probably have to look something like this:


We see stocks struggling into the new year. With the Fed’s continued tight monetary policy another correction to start off the year seems inevitable. There is a strong possibility of a mild recession in the second half of the year but the stock market could look past that and rally in the latter half of the year. Stock gains will be a second half story.

How did I do?

I don’t actually believe this but it sounds good, right?

The hard part about predicting the future in the markets or economy is that predicting the future is hard.

Peter Bernstein once wrote, “Probability has always carried this double meaning, one looking into the future, the other interpreting the past, one concerned with our opinions, the other concerned with what we actually know.”

I’m more concerned with probabilities because the future won’t look exactly like anyone is predicting it will look like right now.

There are probably 3-4 different paths you could talk me into this year that wouldn’t be all that shocking.

The only Wall Street strategist-type forecast I’m willing to make is this: The stock market will have a correction in 2023.

I’m not exactly going out on a limb here for one simple reason — the stock market has a correction every year.

My work shows over the past 100 years or so just 5% of all trading days experience an all-time high for the U.S. stock market. Invert that data and that means 95% of the time as a stock market investor is spent in a state of drawdown from an all-time high.

The stock market cannot go up every single day. In fact, historically the stock market is only up on roughly 55% of all days that it’s open and down on the other 45% of days.

Here’s an updated chart of calendar year returns overlayed with the peak-to-trough drawdown in those corresponding years:


For those of you who aren’t visual learners, here are the raw numbers every year going back to 1928:


Every year there’s red. Even when stocks finish the year in positive territory there are bound to be some hiccups along the way.


The only thing I can’t make any promises on is the magnitude or timing of the correction.

There has been a double-digit peak-to-trough drawdown in roughly two-thirds of all years going back to 1928. Only a little more than 6% of the time is the intra-year correction less than 5%. So 94% of the time, there has been a drawdown from the intra-year highs of 5% or worse.

There are, of course, times when drawdowns are worse in certain time frames than others. Here is the breakdown by decade:


The 2020s are only 3 years in but 2 of those 3 years have experienced bear markets. Things were a pretty tame in the 1950s, 1960s and 1990s. Not so much in the 1930s and 2000s.

I don’t know what returns the stock market will give us this year.


Maybe they will be good because last year was bad.


Maybe they will be bad again in a continuation of last year.

Whatever the returns end up being by the end of the year, the stock market will have some sort of correction along the way.

Risk is easier to predict than returns when it comes to the stock market."

MY COMMENT

NONE of the so called experts has a real crustal ball. It is more like they are all using a magic eight ball. They dont have a clue.....no one does. their predictions are full of EGO.....BIAS......SELF INTEREST......etc, etc, etc. IGNORE tham all and simply sit on what you have for the long term.....as usual.

 

And to continue.

Market turbulence and our changing perception of risk

https://abnormalreturns.com/2022/12/20/market-turbulence-and-our-changing-perception-of-risk/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


"“Dozens of people were injured Sunday, some seriously, when a Hawaiian Airlines flight from Phoenix to Honolulu hit “severe turbulence” about a half-hour from landing.”- Washington Post

Turbulence is common on commercial flights. Severe, unexpected turbulence is “relatively uncommon.” Nevertheless, just reading the above sent your brain to your next scheduled flight or a prior occasion where you experienced notable turbulence. It may even make you nervous about booking a future flight.

Flying commercial is one of the safest forms of travel but headlines like this can affect how we perceive the risk of flying. When this gap between our perception of risk and our risk tolerance grows it can cause us to take actions out of fear (or greed).

This is especially true when it comes to investing. We are in a period now of market turbulence. This is why we should always build plans and portfolios that align with our risk tolerance.* The problem is that real life intervenes. At the start of 2022, not may people were planning for double-digit losses in the broad stock and bond indices. But here we are.

In this post, Sarah Newcomb in Morningstar carefully draws the distinction between risk tolerance and risk perception and talks about some ways we investors can cope with challenging times. Being able to put some distance between our emotions and our actions and reframing information can all help. The bottom line is that a plan that is abandoned at the first sign of trouble is in reality no plan at all. Newcomb writes:

“However, long-term investment plans are only useful if we can abide by them. The fact that our day-to-day perceptions of risk are so malleable and easily affected by things that are not related to the fundamental value of our investment holdings means that we need to be watchful of our own emotional and psychological state if we want to stay the course. There are times when plans do need to be altered, but not every instinct to change course should be heeded.”

Not only do we need to properly align our risk tolerance with our portfolios. We should also build in some room for error. Even deliberately building sub-optimal portfolios that are easier to stick with makes sense. Consistency of behavior is, in part, about not putting ourselves in situations where we can feel off-kilter and off-plan.


Plans do need to change over time. The worst time to do this is during periods of stress, think FOMO or a bear market. Here’s hoping your risk tolerance and risk perception are roughly aligned after a tough year in the markets."

MY COMMENT

YES......your risk tolerance and your investing plan need to align. Easier said than done for some people that let emotions get in the way.....either positive emotions or negative emotions. I try to invest with BRUTAL CLINICAL HONESTY. Easy for me to say since my personality is very CLINICAL to begin with.

I have been using the same investing plan and the same investing goals for over 55 years now. It works for me.....so I do it over and over and over. It is very simple.....no need to make things complex if the simple works just fine.

 

Read'em and.......CHEER.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks open higher on Monday, continuing last week's rally

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-9-2023-122019026.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks opened higher on Monday, continuing momentum after opening the year with a rally late last week.

Shortly after the opening bell on Monday, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added about 165 points, or 0.5%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 1.1%.

The U.S. dollar continued a recent slump while the price of oil rallied to start the week over optimism around demand as China reopens.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, the U.S. benchmark, surged nearly 3% Monday morning to trade just below $76 a barrel.

Retail stocks were also in focus early Monday, with several companies announcing news ahead of the key ICR Conference this week.

Lululemon (LULU) warned Monday morning it expects fourth-quarter gross margins to decline as the company struggled with increased costs due to an inflation-related slowdown in consumer spending. Shares fell 10% in early trading.

Late Friday, Macy's (M) also cautioned on sales growth, and shares fell as much as 4.4% early Monday. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), in contrast, said its sales decline will likely be less than feared, sending shares up about 2% early Monday.

Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), meanwhile, gained as much as 18% in early trading — at one point ripping as much as 75% higher — after shares lost nearly half of their value last week after the embattled meme-stock retailer said bankruptcy was on the table. Bed Bath & Beyond is set to report earnings on Tuesday.

Alibaba (BABA) shares climbed around 4% early Monday, rising for a sixth straight day, after co-founder Jack Ma agreed to give up controlling rights of fintech affiliate Ant Group.

Investors await December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out Thursday – arguably the most important economic release of the month and the last significant reading before Federal Reserve officials meet Jan. 31-Feb. 1 to deliver their next interest rate increase. Wall Street will also face the first batch of earnings of the upcoming reporting season from Wall Street's megabanks at the end of the week.

All three major U.S. indexes soared on Friday, propelled by signs of cooling wage growth in the latest monthly jobs report. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all surged at least 2% in the previous session. For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each advanced roughly 1.5%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1%.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 223,000 in December as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%. The figures show a persisting imbalance between labor supply and demand, but investors cheered easing wage pressures as a sign the Fed may reconsider its ambitious rate-hiking path.

“No doubt the labor market has been able to withstand prolonged rate hikes better than many expected,” Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Office said in emailed comments. “Remember, though, that monetary policy acts on a lag so it’s likely an if and not a when for a slowdown in hiring.”

“The Fed minutes made it clear that rates will remain high for all of 2023, so investors should prepare for a bumpy ride, especially as we enter earnings season and get a glimpse of guidance in the coming weeks.”

Monday also officially commences the first week of fourth-quarter earnings season, with JPMorgan (JPM), the largest consumer bank in the U.S., paving the way for what’s poised to be a milder period for corporate financials than usual as companies grapple with pressures from inflation and higher interest rates.

Wall Street analysts have been steadily trimming earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies over the final months of 2022.

During the past quarter, analysts have lowered their EPS forecasts by a larger than average margin of 6.5% from Sept. 30 to Dec. 31, according to data from FactSet Research. By comparison, the average downward revision to bottom-up EPS estimates over a quarter was 2.5% over the past five years, 3.3% over the past 10 years, and 3.8% over the past 20 years, per FactSet."

MY COMMENT

See anything new above......I dont. the markets are doing well right now because they are choosing to live in REALITY for a few days. Not doubt the EMOTIONAL speculation will come back soon.

With all the dire predictions for earnings.....a BEAT should be relatively simple and definately a strong possibility. But in the end....what it is....it is.

 

The TECH and WHITE COLLAR jobs cuts continue to snowball across the economy.

Goldman Sachs readies biggest layoffs since the financial crisis

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-start-cutting-thousands-005631128.html

 

This is OLD HISTORY......but a big lesson in trusting the government. People got totally screwed by this deal. I remember very well for most of my life these Fannie and Freddie investments being touted as absolutely safe.......fully backed by the US government.

U.S. Supreme Court rejects investor suits over Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-supreme-court-rejects-investor-144204000.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Reuters) -The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday declined to again hear a multi-billion dollar case pursued by shareholders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac arising from the federal government's takeover of the mortgage finance firms during the 2008 financial crisis.

The justices turned away an appeal by the investors of a lower court's ruling against their challenge to a 2012 agreement that resulted in hundreds of billions of dollars being redirected from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the U.S. Treasury. The shareholders had argued that this arrangement unlawfully deprived them of dividends without compensation.

The private investors pursuing the appeal at the Supreme Court include Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Funds and funds managed by New York-based Owl Creek Asset Management.

Fannie and Freddie were created by Congress and operate as for-profit corporations with private shareholders, with the mission of expanding the national home lending market by buying home loans from private lenders and repackaging them as mortgage-backed securities.

When the housing market collapsed in 2008, the companies suffered overwhelming losses. To avoid catastrophic effects for the U.S. economy, they were placed in conservatorship under the newly created Federal Housing Finance Agency.

The case before the Supreme Court arose from of a myriad of lawsuits that private shareholders filed over the 2012 agreement between the U.S. Treasury and the FHFA aimed at repaying the government for the bailout.

The 2012 agreement required Fannie and Freddie to pay the U.S. Treasury quarterly a sum equal to the amount that their net worth exceeded a specified capital reserve. The investors have said this resulted in an unwarranted government windfall of $124 billion.

The Supreme Court considered the agreement in an earlier case in 2021, agreeing with shareholders that the FHFA's structure was unconstitutional but throwing out a core part of the challenge to how the 2012 deal was administered.

The latest case concerned shareholder claims that the agreement, called the "net worth sweep," violated the U.S. Constitution's Fifth Amendment requirement that the government provide "just compensation" when private property is taken for public use.

Lower courts agreed with the government that the shareholders lacked the right to sue because their lawsuits amounted to an allegation that the companies had overpaid the Treasury, and only Fannie and Freddie could sue to recover that money.

While the shareholders argued that the 2012 agreement directly harmed them, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit agreed with a federal judge that their claims failed under Delaware law, which governed the shareholders' rights."

MY COMMENT

This event was a drastic lesson to people that NOTHING is absolutely safe.......from the government or government action.

 

I believe that a lot of what we see day to day in the markets is driven by the Ten Year Treasury yield. I find it amazing that it is as low as it is with the recent FED rate increases. HERE....is what is going on with the Ten Year today.

Treasury yields rise as investors assess inflation outlook

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/09/us-treasury-yields-investors-assess-inflation-outlook.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Monday as investors considered the outlook for inflation and awaited key economic data.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up by almost 3 basis points to 3.599%. The 2-year Treasury
traded around 4.27% after rising by about 1 basis point.

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

Investors continued to assess the outlook for inflation and how that could affect the Fed’s next interest rate decision. The central bank is due to meet on Jan. 31 and Feb. 1, and investors are considering whether rate hikes will be slowed further as the Fed’s battle with persistently high inflation continues.

The central bank last increased rates by 50 basis points at its December meeting, a slight slowdown from the 75 basis point hikes it had implemented at each of its previous four meetings.

On Friday, December’s nonfarm payrolls report indicated that inflationary pressures could be easing as it showed that wages grew by less than expected throughout the month. The report also showed that that the economy added 233,000 jobs in December, more than the 200,000 previously estimated by Dow Jones.

Investors are hoping to gain more clarity about inflation this week as December’s U.S. consumer price index figures are due on Thursday.

Before then, several smaller data points are expected, including the consumer inflation expectations report on Monday. Several Fed officials are due to make remarks.'

MY COMMENT

One thing is sure.......NOW and over the next couple of months is a great time for RISK-ADVERSE investors to lock in some good rates on CD's and other SAFE investment vehicles. We have not been rates this high on SAFE investment vehicles for a long time.

 

Markets STILL up nicely for the day......especially the NASDAQ.......FULL SPEED AHEAD.

 

As we start the new year.....my little local real estate market is still in a standoff. In other words......NO INVENTORY.

We currently have 31 homes for sale out of about 4200. EXTREME low inventory. Of those......FIVE.....of the listings are builder listings. So the reality.....ONLY.....26 homes for sale by owners.

Of the active listings.....Half are over $1MILLION and half are below $1MILLION. The lowest priced home is $705,000.

I do see a number of homes that have gone pending recently. Around here over the past 5 years....the market starts to pick up right away in January. I am curious if this will be the norm this year......or if we will see a continued stand-off between buyers and owners.

 

Can you believe.....it was ONLY one year ago that the DOW hit an ALL TIME HIGH.

"The Dow’s all-time high at market close stands at 36,799.65 points, reached on Jan. 4, 2022. The index’s highest price, period, was on Jan. 5, 2022: During that trading day, the Dow reached 36,952.65 points."

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/an...ones-industrial-average-djia-alltime-high.asp

 

In one of my accounts today that suddenly had some funds available......I added 100 shares of TSLA to bring the total percentage of TSLA in the (STOCK SIDE) of the account up to 1.23%. Purchase price was $121.96 per share. This stock is just too crazy low right now so I could not resist. Too bad these funds were not available a few days ago.

I dont plan to add any further shares......I dont want this position to get any higher as a percentage of the account.

Of course......there are additional shares of TSLA in the account as part of the SP500 Index fund and as part of the fidelity Contra fund. ALL.......(except perhaps HON)..... of the stocks that I own are tripled up in the account as individual holdings and as holdings of the two funds. The only stock that I dont think is in fidelity Contra fund is Honeywell.

 

YEP Emmett.....our market activity has also plunged......but so far.....not a big impact on prices or home values. Last I saw houses here are STILL going up year over year.........time will tell if this is just a statistical anomaly.

 

Markets have now backed off from earlier. The DOW is now RED. The other averages still have a good gain. Market needs to POWER into the close and not.......wimp out.