I had kind of a low/medium gain today. A nice amount of money....but...nowhere near what I had earlier in the day. BUT.....I am not going to complain about a good gain after the past year. I had a good beat on the SP500 by 0.89%. obviously it faded big time in the last few hours. My single DOWN stock today was COSTCO. Why? I have no idea, I have not looked.
Another company comes back from.....work at home. Bob Iger demands Disney employees return to the office 4 days per week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bob-...-to-the-office-4-days-per-week-185452748.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Disney (DIS) CEO Bob Iger is back — and so are the company's in-office requirements. According to an internal memo obtained by Yahoo Finance, Iger told Disney's hybrid employees they will be required to be in an office at least four days a week beginning March 1. Monday through Thursday will be the preference for in-person workdays. CNBC first reported the circulation of Iger's memo. "As I’ve been meeting with teams throughout the Company over the past few months, I’ve been reminded of the tremendous value in being together with the people you work with," Iger wrote. "As you’ve heard me say many times, creativity is the heart and soul of who we are and what we do at Disney. And in a creative business like ours, nothing can replace the ability to connect, observe, and create with peers that comes from being physically together, nor the opportunity to grow professionally by learning from leaders and mentors," the memo continued. "It is my belief that working together more in-person will benefit the Company’s creativity, culture, and our employees’ careers." Iger, who will face several strategic questions regarding the business in the new year, has stressed the importance of culture and creativity since stepping back into the CEO role in November. The executive has been quick to undo elements of his predecessor's strategy, including firing Kareem Daniel and restructuring Disney's Media and Entertainment Distribution (DMED) division — one of former CEO Bob Chapek's first big swings. Iger has also reportedly expressed concerns regarding Chapek's unfavorable price hikes at the company's theme parks. Although unlikely Iger will reverse the price hikes in the new year, Disney fans could possibly see a reduction in the number of increases in 2023. Other high-profile executives like Tesla and Twitter CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon have also expressed their preference for in-office attendance versus hybrid and remote work. MY COMMENT That one paragraph in the middle pretty well sums it up. That is a description of the benefits of working......at work.....for any company or business.
A mixed market today. Stock market news live updates: Nasdaq builds on last week's gains; S&P 500, Dow fall to start week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-9-2023-122019026.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday after failing to sustain momentum from the first big rally of the year last week. Technology led the way higher, with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rising 0.6%, an outlier in the session, though far below the climb of more than 2% that the index saw earlier into trading. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) each turned lower into the close, falling 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, after paring the day's gains. The U.S. dollar continued its slump, while the price of oil rallied to start the week over optimism around demand as China reopens. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, the U.S. benchmark, rose 1.4% Monday to trade just below $75 a barrel. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said in remarks at the Atlanta Rotary Club on Monday that the U.S. central bank should raise interest rates above 5% by early in the second quarter and then hold them there for a "long time." “I am not a pivot guy," he said. "I think we should pause and hold there, and let the policy work." Some of the biggest losers of 2022 led Monday's push higher. Megacaps including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) all closed higher. Tesla (TSLA) was also among the day's biggest movers, rallying nearly 6%. Beaten-down shares of Coinbase (COIN) surged 15.1%. Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) — a bellwether for speculative technology stocks and a large holder of each of the two aforementioned names — rose 4.6%. Retail stocks were also in focus Monday, with several companies announcing news ahead of the key ICR Conference this week. Lululemon (LULU) warned it expects fourth-quarter gross margins to decline as the company struggled with increased costs due to an inflation-related slowdown in consumer spending. Shares plunged 9.3%. Late Friday, Macy's (M) also cautioned on sales growth, and shares fell 7.6% Monday. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), in contrast, said its sales decline will likely be less than feared, sending shares up 8.8%. Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), meanwhile, soared 23.7% in volatile trading — at one point ripping as much as 75% higher — after losing nearly half of its value last week when the embattled meme-stock retailer said bankruptcy was on the table. Bed Bath & Beyond is set to report earnings on Tuesday. Alibaba (BABA) shares climbed around 3.2% Monday, rising for a sixth straight day, after co-founder Jack Ma agreed to give up controlling rights of fintech affiliate Ant Group. Investors await December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out Thursday – arguably the most important economic release of the month and the last significant reading before Federal Reserve officials meet Jan. 31-Feb. 1 to deliver their next interest rate increase. Wall Street will also face the first batch of earnings of the upcoming reporting season from Wall Street's megabanks at the end of the week. All three major U.S. indexes soared on Friday, propelled by signs of cooling wage growth in the latest monthly jobs report. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all surged at least 2% in the previous session. For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each advanced roughly 1.5%, while the Nasdaq rose 1%. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 223,000 in December as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%. The figures show a persisting imbalance between labor supply and demand, but investors cheered easing wage pressures as a sign the Fed may reconsider its ambitious rate-hiking path. “No doubt the labor market has been able to withstand prolonged rate hikes better than many expected,” Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Office said in emailed comments. “Remember, though, that monetary policy acts on a lag so it’s likely an if and not a when for a slowdown in hiring.” “The Fed minutes made it clear that rates will remain high for all of 2023, so investors should prepare for a bumpy ride, especially as we enter earnings season and get a glimpse of guidance in the coming weeks.” Monday also officially commences the first week of fourth-quarter earnings season, with JPMorgan (JPM), the largest consumer bank in the U.S., paving the way for what’s poised to be a milder period for corporate financials than usual as companies grapple with pressures from inflation and higher interest rates. Wall Street analysts have been steadily trimming earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies over the final months of 2022. During the past quarter, analysts have lowered their EPS forecasts by a larger than average margin of 6.5% from Sept. 30 to Dec. 31, according to data from FactSet Research. By comparison, the average downward revision to bottom-up EPS estimates over a quarter was 2.5% over the past five years, 3.3% over the past 10 years, and 3.8% over the past 20 years, per FactSet." MY COMMENT A good couple of days rally for investors like myself. We need to get to the point this year.....where we will routinely have 3-4 week rallies........even if they are followed by the bear market. We will be making progress than. I think we are close. We need to see these little 2-4 day rallies broaden out. It will happen, the FED is near the end of the hikes........and.....that will cut down DRASTICALLY all the breathless FED news coverage. It will all just be boring waiting for the FED than.
I guess I was part of this since I bought some TESLA today in an account. Nasdaq notches second day of gains as investors buy beaten-up tech shares like Tesla https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/08/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Gains in technology helped the Nasdaq Composite skirt losses on Monday as traders added to bets that inflation may be easing. The Nasdaq was the only major index to end the day up as it got boosted by a nearly 6% rally in Tesla shares. The tech-heavy index gained 66.36 points, or 0.6%, to end at 10,635.65 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 112.96 points, or 0.3%, to end at 33,517.65 as defensive drug stocks like Merck and Johnson & Johnson weighed on the average. The S&P 500 lost 0.1%, or 2.99 points, to close at 3,892.09, but the information technology sector’s 1.1% gain help pare the index’s losses. “The market, at least for 2023, seems a lot more optimistic than how we ended in 2022,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investing officer at the Independent Advisor Alliance. “Today is another one of those days where you’re really seeing growth outperform value, and you’re seeing a return to optimism in terms of what might happen for the stock market this year.” CNBC Monday’s moves follow a winning, shortened week for the three major indexes, with the Dow and S&P 500 posting their best weeks since November. A chunk of those gains came Friday on the back of the labor and service sector data that spurred hopes the economy was contracting enough to appease the Federal Reserve. And Monday marked the fifth trading day of 2023, reminding investors of a classic Wall Street rule that suggests the market will end the year up if stocks perform well in the first five sessions. The S&P 500 has ended the year positive 83% of the times it finished the first five trading sessions up — and with an average gain of 14%, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The broad index gained 1.1% over the first five trading days in 2023. Later in the week, investors will watch for December’s consumer price index report coming Thursday and big bank earnings scheduled for Friday." MY COMMENT Day by day we are ever closer to the next BULL MARKET. AND.......there is some nice SUPERSTITION above for you in the form of the Wall Street rule that suggests the market will end the year up if stocks perform well in the first five sessions. I see it as myth....but it has been true about 83% of the time.
I guess this was the COSTCO news today. Costco's (COST) December Sales Reflect Stellar Holiday Season https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costcos-cost-december-sales-reflect-134201977.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Costco Wholesale Corporation COST has often proved its mettle. The company has weathered multiple market gyrations and delivered returns to investors. Strategic investments, a customer-centric approach, merchandise initiatives and an emphasis on memberships have been the discount retailer’s primary strengths. These have helped post consistent sales growth. Costco witnessed stellar sales in December. This suggests that the Christmas holiday period turned out a blissful one for the warehouse retailer. Impressive Sales Trend Costco’s growth strategies, better price management and decent membership trends have been contributing to its upbeat performance. Amid soaring prices, low-to-middle-income consumers prefer discount stores to meet their day-to-day needs. Cumulatively, these have been aiding this Issaquah, WA-based company in registering impressive sales numbers. Costco’s net sales increased 7% to $23.80 billion for the retail month of December, the five-week period ended Jan 1, 2023, from $22.24 billion last year. This followed an increase of 5.7% in November. Zacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Stellar Comparable Sales Run Comparable sales for the retail month of December jumped 5.5%, following an increase of 4.3% in November. Comparable sales for the retail month of December reflected an improvement of 6.2%, 4.7% and 2.5% in the United States, Canada and Other International locations, respectively. Excluding the impacts of changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange, comparable sales for the month under discussion rose 7.3% on improvements of 6.4%, 10.9% and 9.1% in the United States, Canada and Other International locations, respectively. Bottom Line Costco continues to be one of the dominant warehouse retailers based on the expanse and quality of merchandise offered. The company's distinctive membership business model and pricing power set it apart from traditional players. We believe a favorable product mix, steady store traffic, pricing power and strong liquidity should benefit Costco. We note that shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have risen 3.5% in the past three months compared with the industry’s growth of 6.9%." MY COMMENT I still have no idea why the stock was down today. These numbers look great. this company is on fire right now and has been for a long time. it is as though they are really hitting their stride....even though their performance has been OUTRAGEOUSLY OUTSTANDING for many decades.
I like this little article. Seasonality, Correlation Without Causation and a Look Back at 2022 https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ion-without-causation-and-a-look-back-at-2022 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Seasonal adages “work” just often enough to linger in the zeitgeist. That doesn’t make them useful. The holidays may have come and gone, but from a market standpoint, some argue they officially end Wednesday: the day that some who use seasonal adages deem the end of the traditional Santa Claus Rally period. Whether you use this definition (the week after Christmas plus the next year’s first two trading days) or the equally common “week before Christmas” marker, it seems safe to say we did not get one in 2022. All the more cruel, this was a year where every other seasonal adage “worked”: A down January predicted a down year, selling in May and going away may have carved out part of the decline (depending on your exact exit and re-entry points), and September had the worst decline. Now some argue the lack of a Santa Claus rally means weaker returns are in the offing from here. We don’t buy the logic. There is a simple takeaway from 2022’s seasonality milestones: It was a bad year. There was a bear market. The S&P 500 peaked on the year’s first trading day, and global stocks followed a day later. Given that backdrop, it is no surprise that we now look back and see the negative seasonal adages seem prescient. Nor that the January effect “worked.” It isn’t because January is predictive, but because of the sheer coincidence of a bad January and a bear market. In all cases, it was a matter of correlation without causation. After all, seasonal adages work just often enough to keep the myths alive. If they failed repeatedly, then they wouldn’t be in the global investing consciousness anymore. People wouldn’t talk about them. Long-term average returns wouldn’t purport to prove them out. But under the hood, all those averages are made up of times when they worked and times when they didn’t. Whether it is the January Effect, Sell in May or September being the worst month, all fail more often than not. Frustratingly, 2022 was simply the rare year where no seasonal adage seems to have failed except the happy Santa Claus one. In our view, that makes claims about Santa’s absence being predictive ring hollow. Quirky derivatives of seasonal adages aren’t any more predictive than the maxims themselves. In all cases, stocks don’t follow the calendar. If you accept that markets are at all efficient, then seasonality is incapable of being predictive. After all, is there anything on Earth more widely known than the calendar? And is anything more reliably trotted out in financial headlines, year after year, than seasonal saws? If markets discount widely known information, then seasonal adages have to be priced in. Just like all the other tools that are based on past returns and price levels, including valuations. Stocks see them, see what everyone says about them, and then do their own thing. That doesn’t mean stocks always defy expectations. As Fisher Investments Founder and Executive Chairman Ken Fisher wrote in his 2015 book, Beat the Crowd, the consensus is right often enough to make things tricky for rote contrarian investors. That is part of why Ken calls the market The Great Humiliator. Everyone has to wear some egg on their face sometimes. But we also think it would be an error to do a philosophical 180 and start accepting all correlations as powerful, permanent and predictive. Causation matters. And if you can’t identify a fundamental, calendar-based reason that all the negative seasonal adages worked in 2022, then you must accept it as a humbling quirk and then move on. So that is what we are doing. We will share our 2023 forecast in the coming days, but suffice it to say that it will be based on first principles, fundamental analysis and our core investment philosophy. It will stem from our analysis of economic and political drivers and how those square with sentiment and what we think markets have—and haven’t—already discounted. Not seasonality, interesting observations or whatever other trivia headlines might cook up." MY COMMENT YEP. the key to investing is to rely on FUNDAMENTAL BUSINESS DATA.....earnings and other business info.......that is it for the long term. BUT....humans being human.....love a good superstition. Middle ages thinking does not lead to successful investing.....even if that sort of thinking is the norm in modern society.
The short term market today. Stocks nudge higher as investors assess Fedspeak https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-10-2023-130537861.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks crawled forward at Tuesday's open as Wall Street processed hawkish rate talk from Federal Reserve officials and mulled remarks from Chair Jerome Powell at an event hosted by Sweden's central bank. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) each rose 0.2% at the start of the session. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved up 0.3%. Powell made the case for the U.S. central bank's independence in a speech Tuesday at the Symposium on Central Bank Independence in Stockholm, Sweden. He argued that stable inflation is the bedrock of a healthy economy and can require the Fed taking actions that are necessary, even if often unpopular. "The case for monetary policy independence lies in the benefits of insulating monetary policy decisions from short-term political considerations," he said. In specific market moves, shares of Coinbase (COIN) rose 4% at the open after the cryptocurrency exchange said it would cut nearly 1,000 jobs as part of a restructuring plan. The company expects to incur roughly $149 million to $163 million in restructuring expenses. The move will mark the third round of layoffs for Coinbase since last year. Shares of billionaire Richard Branson's Virgin Orbit Holdings (VORB) plunged 20% after one of the company's rockets failed to reach its target orbit due to a technical failure. Investors continued to watch beleaguered retailer Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) as it reported earnings that missed estimates, just one week after revealing the company was considering bankruptcy due to its financial struggles. “As we shared last week, we continue to work with advisors as we consider all strategic alternatives to accomplish our near- and long-term goals,” CEO Sue Gove said in an update Tuesday, adding that "multiple paths are being explored." Bumble (BMBL) shares rose more than 4% in early trading after KeyBanc upgraded the female-founded dating app from Sector Weight to Overweight and said the "competitive environment appears stable, and economic pressures are easing.” Oak Street Health (OSH) shares spiked 29% after Bloomberg News reported Monday that CVS Health is exploring an acquisition of the operator of primary care centers. Tuesday's moves come after a mixed start to the week that saw the technology-heavy Nasdaq extend gains from a rally Friday while the other two major averages failed to sustain momentum. The Nasdaq rose 0.6% on Monday, while the S&P 500 and Dow each closed down 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, following hawkish remarks from two Federal Reserve officials. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said during a live-streamed interview with the Wall Street Journal that she expects policymakers will raise interest rates to somewhere above 5%, while adding that the final rate will ultimately depend on the path of inflation. Echoing that view, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic also said the U.S. central bank should raise interest rates above 5% by early in the second quarter and then hold them there for a "long time." “I am not a pivot guy," Bostic said in remarks at the Atlanta Rotary Club on Monday. "I think we should pause and hold there, and let the policy work." Thursday will bring investors December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) – perhaps the most important economic release of the month and the last significant reading before Federal Reserve officials meet Jan. 31-Feb. 1 to deliver their next interest rate increase. Economists expect headline CPI rose 6.6% over the prior year in December, a downshift from the 7.1% increase seen in November, according to data from Bloomberg. On a month-over-month basis, CPI likely stayed flat. The report is likely to sway bets on whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 0.25% or 0.50% at the start of next month." MY COMMENT Talk about boring.....there is absolutely NOTHING new in anything happening today. It has all been the normal conditions for over 8-10 months now. I cant believe that people and the markets even react to this stuff anymore.
You know if you look at some charts....the markets bottomed last June. The vast majority of the losses in 2022 happened before June and especially in the early months of the year. Since that time the markets have re-tested the prior lows and held firm a few times. We are seeing additional confirmation of this in the new year. THIS....is a hopeful sign for investors.....for this year and beyond. It is much easier to be a long term investor if your focus is on the future not on the past. Hindsight investing does not work. COURAGE......ENDURE.
THIRD day in a row for me.....another nice moderate gain in my ten stocks today. Plus a beat on the SP500 by 0.33%. So far I am liking 2023. I had nine stocks UP today and one DOWN.....TSLA....by a small amount.
Something I mentioned this morning. Everything Is Up In This Bull Market https://allstarcharts.com/everything-is-up-in-this-bull-market/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "If you’re not making money in this environment, it’s not because it’s a “bear market”. Don’t be one of those investors left holding the bag in the few remaining stocks that are not working, while almost everything else is. On an equally-weighted basis, every single sector is up since the bear market ended last June. Here’s the performance of each of the Sectors since the new lows list on the NYSE peaked in Q2. Notice how Consumer Discretionary is the best performer. How can consumer discretionary stocks doing so well possibly be a bad thing? The greatest trick the market ever pulled was convincing investors that stocks are in a bear market. They haven’t been in over 6 months. Stocks are going from the lower left to the upper right. We call those uptrends, where I come from. What’s the problem? Oh, some of those growth stocks that were leaders a few years ago in prior cycles still aren’t working? Good. That’s perfectly normal for environments where interest rates are rising. And since interest rates have been rising, why is anyone surprised that those growth stocks can’t get going? Some people who haven’t learned from history are left holding the bag. Good. That’s how markets work. It rewards those who do their homework, and punishes the lazy. It’s nothing new." MY COMMENT It is not this simple of course.......or is it? For the past SIX MONTHS.....the SP500 is Up by 1.68%. Not exactly a bull market.....but....not exactly a bear market either.
A good day today. Stocks rise after busy day of Fedspeak, Powell comments https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-10-2023-130537861.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks closed higher Tuesday, even as Wall Street processed hawkish rate talk from Federal Reserve officials and remarks on inflation from Chair Jerome Powell at an event hosted by Sweden's central bank. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added nearly 200 points, or 0.6%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) advanced 1%, moving up for a third-straight day. Powell reiterated the importance of stable inflation in a speech Tuesday at the Symposium on Central Bank Independence in Stockholm, Sweden. He said leveling out prices can require the Fed to take actions that are necessary, even if often unpopular. "The case for monetary policy independence lies in the benefits of insulating monetary policy decisions from short-term political considerations," he said. Elsewhere in a busy week of Fedspeak, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman asserted on Tuesday that there remains more work to do on fighting inflation despite recent improvements in the data. She said the Fed will continue raising interest rates to reach its 2% long-term price stability goal. “I am committed to taking further actions to bring inflation back down to our goal,” Bowman said at the Florida Bankers Association Leadership Luncheon in Miami, Florida." MY COMMENT A nothing day where the markets simply went with recent direction......UP. Fine with me.
This might be relevant to some on here. IRS adjusts exemption limits on federal estate and gift taxes https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/20...ift-and-estate-tax-exemption-amounts-for-2023 "The US Internal Revenue Service has announced that the annual gift tax exclusion is increasing next year due to inflation. The exclusion will be $17,000 per recipient for 2023—the highest exclusion amount ever. Further, the annual amount that one may give to a spouse who is not a US citizen will increase to $175,000 in 2023. In addition, the estate and gift tax exemption will be $12.92 million per individual for 2023 gifts and deaths, up from $12.06 million in 2022. This increase means that a married couple can shield a total of $25.84 million without having to pay any federal estate or gift tax. For a couple who has already maxed out lifetime gifts, this means that they may now give away another $1.72 million in 2023." See full article for more detail.
Nice open today.....all the averages in the green. Not going to say anything else about it......I dont want to JINX the markets.
We noticed about a month or two ago that there was prep work going on at the Austin Tesla site........and a little while later the cranes and big equipment were back on the site. It was obvious they were preparing to build a big new building. Now we know the story. Tesla plans to spend more than $770 million on Texas factory expansion https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/tes...n-770-million-on-texas-factory-expansion.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Tesla has registered with the state of Texas to expand its electric vehicle factory in Austin this year. January filings with the Texas Department of Licensing and Registration reveal that Tesla plans to spend upward of $770 million on the construction of facilities, including for battery cell testing and manufacturing there. In May 2022, after Tesla opened up its Austin factory, and another vehicle assembly plant outside of Berlin in Germany, CEO Elon Musk called both facilities “gigantic money furnaces.” Tesla has registered with the state of Texas to expand its electric vehicle factory in Austin this year. January filings with the Texas Department of Licensing and Registration reveal that Tesla plans to spend upward of $770 million on the construction of facilities there, including for battery cell testing and manufacturing, cathode and drive unit manufacturing, and a die shop, among other things. The Austin Business Journal previously reported on Tesla’s plans and filings. The Elon Musk-led automaker officially opened its Texas electric vehicle and battery factory in April 2022, hosting a “cyber rodeo” party for shareholders and fans there. Today, Tesla manufactures some of its Model Y crossover utility vehicles in Austin, and plans to mass-manufacture its science fiction inspired Cybertruck, an unconventional pickup, there as well. After the company initially opened up its Austin factory, and another vehicle assembly plant outside of Berlin in Germany, CEO Musk called both facilities “gigantic money furnaces,” in an interview with Tesla Owners Silicon Valley." MY COMMENT That area is booming. It was previously a pretty poor area. There is a HUGE amount of raw land out there. BUT about 2 years ago the city and county put in sidewalks and other work....even though the land was rural and raw.....so.....all of that land is going to develop over the next 10-20 years. I am talking about the area at the intersections of Tx Highways 130 and 71.
The markets today. Stocks rise with focus on CPI later this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-11-2023-120716136.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks ascended at Wednesday's open as Wall Street counted down to a crucial inflation reading and big bank earnings later this week. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 130 points, or 0.4%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also advanced by roughly 0.4%. U.S. Treasury yields pared their move higher from the previous session, with the benchmark 10-year note falling below 3.6%. The U.S. dollar index also retreated. Wells Fargo (WFC) was among companies in focus in early trading after the megabank said late Tuesday it would scale back its home lending business. The move by Wells Fargo, once a leading mortgage lender, comes amid a slowdown in the housing market as sky-high interest rates put a damper on property purchases and refinancing agreements. The stock price was little changed. Elsewhere, shares of two retailers on the brink of extinction continued to see intense trading. Shares of Party City (PRTY) surged 31% after a spiking 118% in Tuesday's session after Bloomberg News reported the company has sought funding for a potential Chapter 11 bankruptcy, citing people with knowledge of the preparations. Embattled retailer Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) also ripped higher again one week after announcing the company was considering bankruptcy due to its financial struggles. The meme stock jumped 25% after rising more than 50% across the prior two sessions. Coinbase (COIN) shares fell more than 5% following a downgrade by Bank of America to Underperform from Neutral after the company said Tuesday it would slash nearly 1,000 jobs as part of a restructuring plan. The drumroll is growing louder for December's Consumer Price Index (CPI) Thursday morning. Economists expect headline CPI rose 6.5% over the prior year last month, Bloomberg consensus estimates show. If realized, the reading would mark another glide lower from the 7.1% increase seen in November. The report is likely to sway bets on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.25% or 0.50% at the conclusion of its next meeting Feb. 1, while offering hints on how much higher rates are likely to go in subsequent meetings. The latest economic forecasts from the Fed's December gathering showed officials project their key overnight lending rate rising to 5.1% in 2023. Several Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, have asserted this week that rates will likely go somewhere above 5%. And JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon predicted in an interview with Fox Business Network aired Tuesday that rates could reach 6%. However, DataTrek's Nicholas Colas points out a "distinctly dovish" tilt in federal funds futures’ expectations since the start if 2023. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the odds for rates of 4.75% or higher have fallen an aggregate 13.7 percentage points. "Markets are roundly and decisively ignoring the Fed’s rate guidance, less than 1 month after they published it," Colas wrote in a note. "Instead, futures — and by extension, stock markets — expect the Fed to be setting rates at year end within 25 – 50 basis points of where they are today." MY COMMENT Another "potential" good day in the markets. Definitely NOTHING new going on......short term. NOW.......long term......the future is begining to look better and better as we continue to move toward the end of the bear market......and....the end of the FED rate increases. I definitely like the....."FEEL".....of the markets this year. Much more rational....so far.
This is a HUGE business story. THIS is the country we should be working with, manufacturing in, and targeting to become a world economic power. This is a massive market for our products and world wide marketing businesses. NO......NOT China. India is about to pass China as the world's most populous country https://news.yahoo.com/india-pass-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country-billion-215138449.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "India is expected to surpass China and become the world’s most populous nation within the next three months, according to a recent report by the United Nations’ population division, marking a seismic shift on the global stage in a trend with significant social and economic impact for both countries. “Most people think India's economy is still a fraction of what it could be in the future, which means there's so much promise,” Dr. Audrey Truschke, an associate professor of South Asian History at Rutgers University, told Yahoo News, adding that much of the potential is due in large part to India being “such a young country.” Of the rapidly growing 1.41 billion people in India, about 1 in 4 are under the age of 15 and nearly half are under 25. By comparison, China’s population is about 1.45 billion, but those under 25 make up only a quarter of the population. “The Indian subcontinent has always supported a robust human population,” Truschke said. “India has also long been compared to China, and they have for a long time traded with one another. So as much changes over the course of human history, that's something that recurs — both the dense population of the subcontinent, as well as the comparison with China.” Since 1950, India and China have accounted for an estimated 35% of the world’s population growth, with China emerging as a global industrial power. Combined, the two population epicenters are a significant slice of the world’s roughly 8 billion people. But China’s one-child policy, which was introduced in 1980, drastically reduced its birth rate — and redirected its economic prospects. In recent years, women have been allowed to have up to three children, but the average birth rate still sits at 1.2. China's population is set to peak in the coming years and projected to decline. This means that the older, nonworking population will have to rely on individual single children, many of whom will probably face economic difficulties caring for two parents and four grandparents. As a result, many elderly Chinese will be left to rely on a public pension system that is reportedly set to run out of money by 2035, despite recent efforts by the government to boost revenue. “Without a quality pension support system, young people would be reluctant to get married and have children, [and] middle-aged people are double-burdened to care for the young and the elderly,” Zhang Jingwei, a researcher at Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University, told the South China Morning Post. “Only when the elderly can enjoy the fruits of the reforms and are guaranteed institutionally happy twilight years, anxiety at different age groups can be solved and all of society’s energy can be released.” Population growth in China is flatlining, and its supply of cheap labor may follow suit. Despite stubborn unemployment in pockets of the country, the shortage of skilled manual labor is becoming more evident. India and its growing population of more than a billion people could pick up some of the slack, but its growth rate is also declining, and its industrial infrastructure is not as robust as China’s. And much of India’s population growth is centered in its poorer regions, especially in the north. By 2050, data shows that India is expected to provide more than a sixth of the world’s population of working age (15 to 64 years old)." MY COMMENT Lets see we can support and nurture China.....or......India. Not a hard choice. One is the most brutal communist dictatorship in the world and a threat to our own country and our allies. The other.....IS NOT. In addition India is just as large a market as China and has a much younger demographic......DUH.
Our last year was a challenging year no doubt. We are now just beginning our journey into the new year and look forward to maybe some better times. As noted, the predictions and analysis are out in full force. All claiming to know something everyone else does not. If the experts knew what they really do not know, there would be no need tp make predictions on things already known. That is a bit of a mind bender or is it? Here is a little clip from an article I read this morning that most rational long term investors already know, but should always think about and keep focused on, not only in rough times, but good as well. "we should always remember that, when we invest in the stock market, we aren’t buying ticker symbols and stock quotes, but rather partial ownership of real businesses. Those businesses have fundamental value that’s reflected in the assets they own, the profits they earn and the dividends they pay. When share prices fall, we should think like shoppers—and realize we’re getting the chance to buy these valuable businesses at discounted prices."
A good start to the new year. ALL of my various accounts are tacking each other and performing in concert......as usual. I am now.....+2.8% for the year. At this moment the SP500 is at +2.78% year to date. A very welcome change from the start to the year that we went though last year. We will......no doubt....experience many erratic up and down days this year. It will be a challenge for short term investors. For long term investors.....just another year in a lifetime of investing. The current YTD gains are a nice relief from the brutal bear market that we are stuck in at the moment.....but.....they could disappear in a few days. I am encouraged by the "feel" of the markets so far this year and by the FACT that at the moment we are POSITIVE in the SP500 for the past 6 months. Whether we move UP or DOWN over the short to medium term.......I do believe that we have turned a corner. I also believe that there is a......."substantial probability".....that the year will end as a positive year for the markets. Of course......year end is a long way and many market days away.
