The Long Term Investor

Bigmaix.

I add cash whenever I have it available......so there is nothing magic about February. I am not sure when i will have the cash flow in my budget to add this year. I am hoping between About March1 and June. I have to juggle some expenses like cataract surgery for my wife and a family trip this summer that will be very expensive.

I dont try to time or anticipate the markets. If I have cash for the markets I put in in when available. There is much research on the topic of.......dollar cost averaging.....versus....lump sum investing.........when money is available. I believe and follow the research that says that......"all in when money is available".....is the way to go. If I have money to invest I do not wait for an entry point......I simply put it in.....regardless of whether the markets are up or down. I believe that over the long term I will get the best returns if I get that money in the markets without delay.

 

Poor MSFT......caught by the typical post-earnings forward looking statements and nit picking by the analysts. So down for a day or two.

 

As to the above.

Stocks sink after Microsoft outlook disappoints

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-25-2023-114320645.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks tumbled at the start of Wednesday's session after lackluster earnings guidance from Microsoft (MSFT) dampened the outlook for technology stocks, weighing on the broader market.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) plopped 1.2% at the open, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 250 points, or roughly 0.8%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slid 1.9%.

Investors continued to barrel through a lackluster earnings season, with reports from names including Tesla (TSLA), IBM (IBM), and AT&T (T) all in the queue for Wednesday.

Microsoft's stock fell 3.5% Wednesday morning after the company issued a weak earnings outlook and results for the last quarter showed its cloud business slowed, offsetting optimism around earnings that came in better than expected. Its results come after the megacap giant last week laid off roughly 10,000 workers, citing a push into AI.

Separately, Microsoft was experiencing a global network outage Wednesday morning in its cloud platform Azure, along with offerings including Teams and Outlook.

Elsewhere in stock moves Wednesday, Texas Instruments (TXN) shares dropped 1.6% in early trading after the chipmaker posted its worst sales decline since 2020, while revenue fell to $4.17 billion from $4.53 billion. Other semiconductors also fell following the results.

“As we expected, our results reflect weaker demand in all end markets with the exception of automotive,” CEO Rich Templeton said in the company’s earnings statement.

Shares of Fox (FOX) and News Corp. (NWSA) rose 2% and 6.7%, respectively, after media mogul Rupert Murdoch scrapped plans for a proposed Fox-News Corp merger. The companies were separated a decade ago.

Despite finishing mixed on Tuesday and a few downbeat sessions this year, stocks have been on an upward path in the first few weeks of January. Gains have been especially focused across technology stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite up around 8% to date.

"So far, price action in January 2023 bears an eerie resemblance to that in July 2022 when risk assets rallied and rates fell as investors bought into the idea of a 'soft landing' – the notion that slowing growth would slow inflation and obviate the need for further Fed hikes," Gargi Chaudhuri, head of iShares investment strategy, Americas at BlackRock said in a note. "That argument faded and price action reversed as the Fed held firm and went on to hike policy rates by 75 basis points in September."

"Fast forward to now, many investors once again seem convinced that inflation is all but beaten and that slower growth will not only obviate the need for further hikes, but even allow the Fed to cut rates before the end of the year," she added.

Despite messaging from Federal Reserve policymakers that interest rates will rise above 5%, markets are pricing in a lower terminal rate as they anticipate a downshift to 25-basis points at the next meeting Jan. 31-Feb. 1.

The CME FedWatch Tool, a tool that gauges investor expectations for rates and U.S. monetary policy, shows markets are pricing in a 98.1% chance of a 0.25% increase next week — down slightly from as high as 99.8% earlier this week."

MY COMMENT

A nothing day today. We have seen this same behavior for many years now. Ok earnings.....and.....nit-picking the forward commentary.

Of course.....the forward statements are often a game by management to lessen expectations for the future and make future earnings beats easier.....and.....to error on the negative side to avoid lawsuits later.

 

At least no one seems to be obsessing over the FED today. I will take that as a victory any day....all day long.

Today looks like a good day to just IGNORE it all......and go do something else.

 

YEP....looks like the markets made an epic recovery today to end mixed. I did not pay any attention....but....it is nice to see the end of the day result in the averages and in my account. Yes....I was still in the red.....but once again minimally. I dont mind these down days if they continue to have little impact on my YTD return. I also got beat by the SP500 today by 0.27%.

My green stocks today were.......AMZN, NVDA, and TSLA.

 

TSLA.....today. A beat.

Tesla earnings: EV giant reports Q4 revenue and profit beat; Cybertruck to begin production later this year

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesl...gin-production-later-this-year-211339540.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR hat I consider important content)

"Tesla stock is trading slightly higher in extended trading after the EV maker reported a Q4 earnings revenue and profit beat.

For the quarter, Tesla (TSLA) reported:

• Q4 Revenue: $24.32 billion vs. $24.07 billion (Est.)
• Q4 Adjusted EPS: $1.19 vs $1.12 (Est.)

That revenue represents another record high for Tesla, up over $2 billion sequentially from Q3 and nearly $7 billion from a year ago.

On the profitability end, Tesla is reporting adjusted net income of $4.1 billion, nearly $400 million more than Q3 and over $1.3 billion more than a year ago.

Gross margin came in at 23.8% (25.4% Est.), with automotive gross margin hitting 25.9% (28.4% Est.). While Tesla instituted a number of price cuts in the U.S., China (for the second time), and some European markets, those cuts did not happen until Q1 of this year, so those effects aren't seen in Q4 results. However, investors will still be keen to track gross margin figures, which are the envy of the automotive world (last quarter GM’s EBIT adjusted margin stood at 9.4%).

Tesla kept its long-term delivery target of 50% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) despite deliveries missing the mark in recent quarters. Tesla also said in its report that the Cybertruck is on track to begin production later this year, and that its next-gen platform is under development, with more details coming at its investor day on March 1.

Looking ahead to the earnings call, investors and analysts will be focused on any clues to the demand story for Tesla, and whether those steep price cuts across the board are boosting deliveries in Q1. Catch Yahoo Finance's new "After the call" for highlights."

MY COMMENT

A BIG BUST.....for the media not the stock.....as they have been featuring stories based on doom and gloom for Tesla and earnings this period.

A very NICE BEAT for the company.......again. BUT.....look out tomorrow as the media and other come up with various story lines as to why the earnings are really not so good. It will be full on.....nit-pick.....time. If we are lucky this is a good enough beat that they will just have to sit there and keep their mouth shut.....at least about this earnings report.

 

This will be the big story tomorrow. I STILL say....there will be NO recession.....and....the dismal earnings that nearly all the so called experts have been predicting for the 4th quarter and the 1st quarter......will NOT happen.

GDP report could show solid fourth-quarter growth but still signal a recession is coming, economists say

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/25/4q-2022-gdp-estimates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Fourth-quarter gross domestic product will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.
• It is expected to show that the economy slowed, but still grew at a solid 2.8% pace in the fourth quarter over the third, according to Dow Jones.
• Economists are looking for signals of how weak or strong the consumer actually was at the end of 2022, since that could signal whether the U.S. will fall into a recession or not in the near future.

Economic growth is expected to have slowed slightly in the fourth quarter but was still solid, driven by a strong consumer.

Economists will be studying Thursday’s report on U.S. gross domestic product carefully for signs of how strong or weak the consumer actually was at the end of 2022. Retail sales suggest spending fell off sharply as the year came to an end. GDP is reported at 8:30 a.m. ET.

According to Dow Jones, economists expect that U.S. gross domestic product grew by 2.8% in the fourth quarter, down from the 3.2% pace in the third quarter.

While economists see a strong fourth quarter, they are divided on where the economy goes from here and a key is the consumer. Some say the sharp 1.1% drop in December retail sales shows the consumer pulled back at the end of the quarter, possibly a prelude to recession. However, others say it’s too soon to count the consumer out, and the economy could still avoid a contraction.

“I know the consensus view is recession is imminent, but I’m skeptical of that,” said Amherst Pierpont chief economist Stephen Stanley. If there is a recession, he expects it would be more likely in 2024. “I think we stumble through 2023.”

But Kevin Cummins, NatWest chief U.S. economist, said he sees a recession on the horizon and he has penciled in a 1% decline in first-quarter GDP, after an estimated 3.2% gain in the fourth quarter.

He said the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes have a lagged effect on the economy, and they have already sent housing into a recession. The slowdown in residential investment has taken a full percentage point off of growth in the fourth quarter, he said.

“Real export growth is going to be weak. Inventories have been rebuilt enough that you’re not going to get much juice from that,” he said. “It just seems like all the major components in GDP are all on the same side going forward, pointing to weaker growth.”

Cummins said the consumer was still strong in the beginning of the fourth quarter. “But the momentum since then has weakened pretty noticeably,” he said. “It seems like there’s going to be a pretty big hole to dig out of where you ended the fourth quarter. So the first quarter is going to start pretty weak.”

KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonk said the consumer slowed and so did the momentum in the economy at the end of the fourth quarter. She expects a shallow recession this year.

“Fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter growth is about 0.8%. Year-over-year, it’s about 2%. We ended 2021 on such a strong note after almost 6% growth,” she said. “Fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter is more about momentum, and that slowed despite the 4.5 million paychecks we created.”

The consumer powers two-thirds of the U.S. economy so consumption is a major swing factor in GDP, which measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the U.S. economy.

Michael Gapen, Bank of America chief U.S. economist, said he has pushed back his view on when a recession might start to the second quarter. He expects to see a still-strong consumer in the fourth quarter, adding that the decline in December retail sales wasn’t an accurate reflection of consumer spending, which may have been brought forward in the quarter.

“The signal should be consumption held up in the quarter. The open question is how much did personal spending fade into the end of the year. Was it just a goods story or was it a services story too?” Gapen said. “That will feed your narrative of whether the slowdown has broadened.”

The Federal Reserve will also be watching to see how well the consumer is holding up when the central bank meets next week, Gapen said. He expects it to raise its fed funds target by another quarter point.

“We’ve been saying in recent months that the slowdown should spread beyond housing and into manufacturing. ... That signal is clear, and it makes sense to me. The signal around consumption has still been pretty good, and you can’t get a recession until consumption rolls over,” said Gapen. “That’s why we need to see the composition of the data to see momentum at year-end.”

Stanley said he thinks a recession will be put off because the consumer will continue to be strong and the employment outlook is good.

“I think the economy in the short term proves more resilient. ... There’s a big debate about how much of that cushion has been exhausted, but I think households are still sitting on a huge amount of liquid assets that they can spend,” Stanley said. “I do not expect a recession this year. If we’re going to get one, it’s more likely to come in 2024, at which point households would have drawn down more of the pandemic cushion and you would have an extended period of a restrictive monetary policy.”

Some market strategists see a strong fourth quarter as another sign the economy could avoid falling into recession, and a better-than-expected report could reinforce that view.

“I think it really starts to build a case for a soft landing, or if we have recession it’s a milder recession than what people were thinking in the past,” said Jim Caron, head of macro strategies for global fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management."

MY COMMENT

I am sure the economists are still......" looking for signals"....they dont have a clue. They are now trying to back-track and cover their asses.

As a long term investor I really dont care. I dont invest according to short term economic data. BUT.....I dont see anything happening to the economy.....on the ground....right now. It seems as strong as ever. I drove by a TESLA store today.....it was crowded with hoards of people.

It is funny to watch the economic/bureaucratic establishment SQUIRM. In the end it does not matter that they are usually WRONG......they still get paid the big bucks.

 

Cant wait for the open tomorrow. With the earnings today and the GDP number before the open tomorrow....It will be interesting to us market observers and observers of human behavior.

 

OK.....I will jump right to the big items of the day......they are both in this little article.....TESLA and GDP.

Stocks rise as GDP beats, more earnings roll in

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-26-2023-130035690.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks rose Thursday morning as investors digested the release of gross domestic product data and another round of corporate earnings.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) increased by 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added by 0.3%. Contracts on the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose by roughly 1.5%, led by a more than 10% jump from Tesla (TSLA).

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note ticked up to 3.482% from 3.461% on Wednesday. The dollar index was little changed.

U.S. GDP grew 2.9% annual rate in the final quarter of 2022, above expectations, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), compromised two-thirds of domestic activity, added 2.1%, a slowdown from the prior quarter of 2.3%.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell again to 187,000, the lowest level since April 2022. Together, the data represented more signs of resilience for the U.S. economy amid worries over a potential recession.

Market moves Thursday came after stocks climbed back from session lows Wednesday, ending the session nearly flat as 12 of the 24 industry groups hit positive territory for the day.

Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday afternoon reported earnings after the bell. Its results showed the electric vehicle maker had better-than-expected profits in the latest quarter, earning $3.7 billion in net income on $24.3 billion in revenue. Tesla announced it would deliver about 1.8 million vehicles this year, which would represent a 37% jump in production. Shares rose 10% Thursday morning.

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) joined the wave of company layoffs, saying it will cut about 3,900 workers. The cuts will come from Kyndryl Holdings, the IT services business IBM spun off last year. As a result, the company said it will take a $300 million hit in the first quarter to pay for employee severance costs.

The hybrid cloud and infrastructure company also reported fourth-quarter earnings that came in slightly above analysts expectations with revenue of $16.69 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $3.60, in line with analyst forecasts. Shares were down 4% at the open.

Facebook parent Meta (META) shares rose 2% following the news that the company decided to restore former President Donald Trump’s Instagram and Facebook accounts. The end of the ban stemming from the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection comes at the start of the 2024 presidential campaign season.

Elsewhere in stock moves, American Airlines (AAL) shares rallied ahead of the opening bell Thursday after the company said it expects profit for this year to exceed forecasts as the industry remains in recovery mode.

Southwest Airlines (LUV) shares traded down after the carrier announced a $220 million loss in the fourth quarter due to its holiday meltdown last month that led to thousands of flight cancellations. Southwest slashed revenue projections for this year to $350 million as the company deals with ongoing cancellations and reduced bookings.

Shares of Comcast (CMCSA) were flat after the media company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations with revenue of $30.55 billion. Comcast said it lost 26,000 total broadband customers due to Hurricane Ian, which struck the Southeast coast in September. However, the company was able to turn around, in part by increasing its share in ad spending on its networks during the World Cup soccer tournament and the U.S. elections in November.

Investors will continue to digest earnings season, with reports from names including Visa (V) and Intel (INTC) in the queue for Thursday.

While earnings season is in full swing this week, 173 companies have reported as of Wednesday. Among those, six stocks have reported an earnings triple play, according to Bespoke Investments. A triple play occurs when a company posts earnings that beat the top and bottom line, while also raising guidance forecasts.

Looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s decision next week, investors and economists got a decision from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. The central bank hiked its benchmark by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Wednesday, the highest level in 15 years. It was an anticipated move that came with a clear signal the bank is prepared to press pause on its aggressive tightening cycle.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem made it clear that “this a conditional pause,” but it does suggest that officials are convinced the current policy rate is restrictive enough to restore price stability.

Meanwhile, back at home, Fed officials are in their blackout period ahead of their next monetary policy meeting, which starts Jan. 31.

However, the Washington Post reported Wednesday that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard is considered as a top candidate to head the National Economic Council at the White House. As it stands, Brainard’s position as both a Governor and Vice Chair currently holds until 2026."

MY COMMENT

A lot of positive news in the above little article. It contains the TESLA good news from yesterday. I am sure the stock is UP today. Hopefully the media is done with their campaign to cancel Elon Musk now. What we saw for the past couple of months....since he decided to put his personal opinions out there on social and semi-political issues was nothing more than media herd behavior and in my view dishonest. He is entitled to his opinions......and as an investor....I dont care.

The GDP number came in great. At the moment NO sign of a recession on the horizon. Actually we did have a small recession....last year.....which none of the people with economic power elected to recognize.

Earnings are still in the early stages but are coming in very nicely. Look at the beats above....some of them in industries that you would not expect. We are doing very nicely this year. AND......we have yet to hear from the FED on their next increase which will also be GOOD NEWS for investors.

 

As to the positive tome of things lately.

The last couple of market days have been down slightly.....very good news. both days started negative and had great potential to end really nasty. Yet the markets came back over the course of the day. This is a real indicator of the NOW positive bias that is creeping into the markets.

We are starting.....emphasis on "starting".....to see things line up very nicely for investors this year. I am totally comfortable in my 12% to 16% prediction for the markets (the SP500) by year end.

 

Here is a little article that is a break from the hard core stock focus. Of course I am a collector (art) so i am always interested in this sort of article.

Should You Be Investing in Stringed Instruments?

https://www.insidehook.com/article/music/stringed-instruments-investments

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"“There’s a lot of money floating around, and stocks are not as secure as they once were. Commercial property isn’t so good in many parts of the world. Excepting Old Masters, even art is unpredictable. Crypto doesn’t look so smart now,” says Steven Smith. “If you want to know where those in the know are investing their money these days, it’s in violins.”

If that notion has thrown you, Smith can explain. He’s the managing director of J & A Beares, the violin dealer founded in London 130 years ago this year. Beares has recently completed an exhaustive study of Stradivari instrument sales from the early 1800s to the 1970s — even acquiring historic dealers W.E. Hill & Sons in order to access their records to do so. The result is the first index of Stradivari prices, one backed by KPMG at that. The result? The provable data shows that prices just keep climbing. And climbing.

You’ll likely have heard of Antonio Stradivari — 17th/18th century violin maker, considered the all-time great, the genius pioneer of violin design and the go-to choice of superstar concert violinists every time. Many of his violins have been lost over the centuries, and many of the 650 or so known to still exist have gone into museums.

The same goes for lesser, if still historically important makers the likes of Guarneri del Gesu — Paganini’s choice — or Giovanni Guadagnini. Look too to the likes of Andrea Amati, Francesco Ruggieri or Giuseppe Guarneri. And not just to their violins, but also violas and cellos, making the market for what’s known as “fine stringed instruments.”

Two important points here: these makers are all dead, and these stringed instruments — unlike, say pianos — are among the few classical instruments that get better with age. As anyone who took Economics 101 knows, anything of finite supply but in constant demand almost always rises in value. That’s why such instruments sell for anywhere between $3 million and $25 million. Florian Leonard, London-based violin maker and dealer — and the official expert in stringed instruments for the city’s prestigious Royal College of Music — reckons the market has typically offered a 26% ROI over a 20-year period, but a 60% ROI isn’t unusual.

Such pieces are typically sold privately and very discreetly. But international auction houses are increasingly interested in selling the big-name makers at public auction. This June, for example, a Stradivarius fetched $15.3 million in New York, just shy of the $15.9 million record set for the auction of a “Strad” in London in 2011.

“People tend to buy these instruments without the need to borrow and only tend to sell them last among their assets, and that gives the market a stability many other assets lack,” explains Smith, who will be publishing a market-defining, six-volume catalogue of known Stradivari pieces next June. “The long-term returns are very, very good. And this is an asset class markets the likes of China and the Middle East — which don’t have a long culture of [violin/cello-based] classical music — are only really now starting to catch on to.”

But there is, he stresses, more to fine stringed instruments than the chance for speculation. Sure, as an asset class they’re also easy to store and easy to move around the world. And insurance costs aren’t overbearing because fencing such well-known instruments on the black market would be next to impossible. More appealingly, owning such an instrument is also an entree into the rarefied world of classical music — because invariably owners are encouraged to lend their instrument out to a player whose talent would benefit from it.

“This is not a big market — relative to art, say — because there are so few instruments in circulation, which is why so few people tend to know about their investment potential. That and because not so many people have connections within the classic music world, or an interest in it, as they might to the art world. After all, there are major art galleries in many cities,” explains Robert Dumitrescu, director of the St.Gallen, Switzerland-based Guarneri Society, which holds a collection of some of the world’s best violins and helps people invest in them.

“But your money does go further — what you pay for an historically important violin won’t buy you much in terms of historically important art,” he adds. In the spring, the society will also launch the first program offering the opportunity to invest in shares in certain instruments, widening the market out to those considerably less well-heeled. “And, what also appeals even more to investors now, is that it’s a chance to be a sponsor of the arts. It’s a philanthropic point of distinction. You know, there are people who buy art, and what’s their motivation? They hang it on their wall, their friends come round and say ‘Wow, you’ve got one of those.’ Well, who cares? To own a violin like these is something very different.”

As Dumitrescu notes, these instruments are only getting more and more expensive, such that even the world’s best players can’t afford them themselves, limiting their art in the process. Owners can make that access happen, with themselves becoming some small part of the history of their instrument. That’s a win-win too: not only is the canon of Western classic music largely made up of works requiring stringed instruments, keeping up demand, but having your violin played by a famous virtuoso — a Julia Fischer, a Joshua Bell or a Sarah Chang — only tends to add to your instrument’s value.


“I’m pleased to say that most buyers who come to me have the education to appreciate why these violins shouldn’t be hidden away in vaults, which is reassuring,” says violin broker Roman Goronok. “Most of my job is in finding these instruments, in keeping track of them, and in, as someone once said of the art world, knowing which painting is on whose wall. I have my little black book, so I know where these violins are, who’s using them, which players may be near the end of their careers and so looking to release their instrument back into circulation, which players are coming up and need one. These are just extraordinary objects. They deserve to be played.”"

MY COMMENT

Out of my league and most people. BUT....if you add in vintage guitars which are extensively collected and other types of stringed instruments.....there is something for every level of collector. I dont collect guitars......I play them....but I have in the past and I am very aware of market values for vintage guitars and musical equipment. Prices go up and down....but.....over years it is hard to lose money.

 

HERE....is more info on TESLA and GDP for anyone that wishes to know more.

U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, more than expected even as recession fears loom

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/gdp...an-expected-even-as-recession-fears-loom.html

GDP: US economy grows at 2.9% rate to cap 2022, heading off recession worries

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-e...roduct-q4-gdp-growth-recession-131755699.html

Tesla shares pop on ‘better than feared’ earnings results, demand outlook

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/tes...nt-on-better-than-feared-earnings-report.html

Tesla stock pops as worst case scenario fears subside

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-pops-as-worst-case-scenario-fears-subside-110611452.html

 

Speaking of TESLA....I see that it is currently at +14.69 per share.....a gain of 10.17%. Current price is $159.12. NICE.

 

For Emmett.....our resident director, producer, writer, and actor.

How ‘Skinamarink’ made $1.5 million on a $15,000 budget

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/skinamarink-viral-horror-box-office.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• “Skinamarink,” the debut film of Kyle Edward Ball, grossed $1.5 million at the box office in its first two weekends despite a production budget of just $15,000.
• The experimental horror film went viral on social media after its first showing last year at Montreal’s Fantasia International Film Festival.
• “Skinamarink” will premiere Feb. 2 on AMC Networks’ Shudder streaming service.

Experimental horror film “Skinamarink” has been all the buzz on social media for months — and now it’s a sleeper hit at the box office.

“Skinamarink,” the first feature from Canadian director Kyle Edward Ball, has pulled in over $1.5 million at the box office in just over a week of release, according to Comscore.

Some film enthusiasts have compared the experimental movie, with its $15,000 budget, to found-footage horror classic “The Blair Witch Project” and David Lynch’s surrealistic 1977 midnight movie “Eraserhead.”

To be sure, “The Blair Witch Project,” which was a trendsetter for movies propelled by internet buzz, grossed $140 million in 1999 on a budget of less than $100,000, but the success of “Skinamarink” is helping define the current era of lucrative scare flicks.

According to data from Comscore, the horror genre generated about $700 million in domestic ticket sales in 2022, less than 10 percent of the $7.5 billion in total domestic box office sales. Much of these sales come from the most wide-released horror films that had budgets between $16 million and $35 million.

Shudder, a horror-focused streaming service owned and operated by AMC Networks , picked up exclusive rights to the film. The movie will premiere on the platform Feb. 2. “Skinamarink” currently has a “fresh” rating of 71% on review aggregation site Rotten Tomatoes.

“Skinamarink” centers on two children who discover their father has disappeared, along with all the doors and windows of the home. The film makes use of grainy, hard-to-decipher shots of walls, furniture, television screens and ceilings to depict the eeriness of the abandoned, liminal home. It doesn’t show the characters’ faces. Ball told Vulture he intended the film to feel “as if Satan directed a movie and got an AI to edit it. An AI would make weird choices, like, ‘Yeah, I’m just gonna hold on this hallway of nothing for a while.’”

Some observers in the indie film industry saw it as a potential hit early on. Co-executive producer Jonathan Barkan, head of acquisitions at Mutiny Pictures, found the “Skinamarink” trailer on Reddit in late 2021 and took a gamble it would outperform many of its competitors and resonate with viewers.

While horror is seen by some as being a tried and true film genre that will return a profit, Barkan said making money with scary movies isn’t that easy. Independent horror films are released every week, and it’s very difficult to stand out among these releases, he said.

“For being a genre that is already typically a lower-budget genre, you have filmmakers who need to be very creative,” Barkan said. “They need to think, how can we stretch our budget? How can we do something really creative and still get across what we’re trying to convey, which is a sense of fear?”

Ball previously created and released short films based on people’s childhood nightmares for his Bitesized Nightmares YouTube channel. The channel, with over 11,400 subscribers, has pulled in a few thousand views for three- to five-minute horror shorts, as well as for his half-hour film “Heck.”

Ball used his childhood home in Edmonton, Alberta, as the film’s setting and his childhood toys for props. Ball stretched the $15,000 across equipment, lighting and film-editing software, in addition to film festival costs and legal documentation. He called in favors for casting and equipment, as well, according to Barkan.

There is “really no way to skirt around a certain budget” in all genres, though Ball took some creative alternatives to high-cost filming conventions, according to Josh Doke, an executive producer of “Skinamarink” and creative director at BayView Entertainment, which acquired Mutiny Pictures.

“A lot of filmmakers who are making a film, either for the first time or with a really low budget, they are trying to emulate ... a Hollywood style with people in front of the camera who are talking and acting, and they maybe don’t have access to the best actors or the best lighting or the best equipment,” Doke said. “It comes off not looking quite like how they had in their head.”

Ball avoided some costs by not shooting characters head on and instead having them speak off-screen or showing only their backs or feet. “You don’t need George Clooney in front of the camera,” Doke said. Lighting in many shots came only from television sets or a night light.

After acquiring the film, Barkan worked to get it into the Fantasia International Film Festival in Montreal, where he previously served as a jury member. This was the “first domino” in propelling its success, he said.

“It’s a stretch to say that there’s anything new under the sun or really original in our industry, but this really does feel like it’s not only experimental horror but experiential horror,” Doke said. “I think that what it does for people is it puts you right in the middle of a nightmare that you can’t wake up from.”

The world premiere attracted 22 reviews from critics, and it caught the attention of Shudder. This notice led it to film festivals in Europe, one of which saw its entire slate of films leaked.

While the production team tried to keep a lid on the film after it was pirated and file takedowns on illegal sites, clips of the film went viral on TikTok. #Skinamarink now has over 27 million views on the platform.

The film was originally intended for theatrical release around Halloween 2023, but plans were thrown out the window as demand to see the film grew rapidly.

″[Shudder] adapted it to embrace what was happening because there was no way to stop it,” Barkan said. “Rather than try to fight it, they worked with it.”

With internet buzz and illegal downloads surging around Thanksgiving, Doke said the film could not wait another 10 months to release. The movie opened Jan. 13 in North American theaters.

“Initially, we were talking about a fairly limited theatrical release through Shudder and IFC just because with a film of his size, you never know the interest, and getting a big theatrical release is always a challenge,” Doke said. “But the snowball just kept rolling down the hill.”

Shudder and the film’s production team agreed to an all-rights deal, meaning Shudder had not only streaming rights but also exclusives on subscription video and pay-per-view video services. Next, IFC Midnight was brought in to do theatrical showings prior to its exclusive release on Shudder.

“Once we saw the incredible response online, we knew we had to bring this film to as many theaters as possible nationwide,” Arianna Bocco, president of IFC Films and IFC Midnight, said in a statement. “Kyle has made a film for a new generation and has proved yet again what horror films and its community are capable of even with the smallest of budgets.”

What was expected to be 10 to 20 screenings led to 692 theaters predominantly in urban areas. Its first weekend “Skinamarink” grossed nearly $900,000. Last weekend, the film reached over 800 theaters and brought gross box office sales to more than $1.5 million — over 100 times its budget.

“To make a film for $15,000 and then to release it and get this level of attention and this wide of a theatrical release, and to reach this level of box office returns, is an incredibly rare feat,” Doke said."

MY COMMENT

Now we all know where Emmett is getting all that money that he is investing. WELL......actually.....this is like winning a mega-millions lottery.....extremely rare.

 

This little article is a good lesson in investing and a topic that has been in the news a lot lately.....ChatGTP.

We Asked ChatGPT to Make a Market-Beating ETF. Here’s What Happened

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asked-chatgpt-market-beating-etf-130001557.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider imprortant content)

"(Bloomberg) -- What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.

In a bid to see how close technology really is to replacing Wall Street’s army of analysts, experts and money runners, we challenged ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence tool that’s taking the internet by storm, to create us a winning portfolio for the US stock market.

The result: A classic exercise in fence-sitting, with the tool explaining that the market is too unpredictable to design such a fund, while warning about the need to pick investments aligning with our goals and appetite for risk-taking.

Here was the full response when we instructed ChatGPT to “design an ETF to beat the US stock market and tell us what stocks are in it.”



Score one for the humans. It seems for all the hype, AI still isn’t quite ready to conquer the stock-picking world.

On the other hand, perhaps ChatGPT does know the secret to beating the market, but is intelligent enough not to give it away? There are already artificial intelligence-guided investments all across Wall Street — including in the ETF arena — and some are beating the market right now.

A current standout is the AI Powered Equity ETF (ticker AIEQ), a $102 million vehicle that has returned about 9.9% in 2023 through Wednesday, compared with 4.7% for the S&P 500 Total Return Index.

AIEQ uses a quantitative model running 24/7 on IBM Corp.’s Watson platform to assess more than 6,000 US publicly traded companies each day. It scrapes regulatory filings, news stories, management profiles, sentiment gauges, financial models, valuations and more.

The product, developed by EquBot LLC and overseen by ETF Managers Group LLC, can be quick to shift holdings and exposure levels, making it a barometer of sentiment for observers.

It entered 2023 with a mixed allocation. Major holdings currently include home furnishing firm RH, Las Vegas Sands Corp., sustainable power company Constellation Energy Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Returns analysis shows that the ETF’s consumer discretionary holdings — including shares in the likes of Caesars Entertainment Inc., Kohl’s Corp. and the meme-stock favorite GameStop Corp. — have been the biggest driver of performance this year.

However, expand the time horizon and AIEQ’s market-beating prowess comes undone. Since its 2017 inception, the ETF has handed investors about 41%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 Total Return Index has delivered more than 72% in the same period.

“It works best when it can catch on to momentum names in the growth space,” said Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “It struggled to find momentum names in a highly volatile stock market last year, and when it’s had the best track record, it’s been during bull markets when it favors tech names.”

So perhaps ChatGPT was wise in refusing to attempt to beat the market. To give it another chance, we asked the tool — like others testing ChatGPT’s capabilities with hypotheticals — to help with a different, never-ending quest of money management: an investment offering clear diversification from the broader market.

Here’s what we got when we told ChatGPT to “design an ETF to deliver a return uncorrelated to the US stock market.”

A multi-asset approach, mixing in some alternatives. Not a bad result, according to Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence — even if history shows that human investors tend to like their asset classes separate.

“This is straight out of the institutional playbook,” Balchunas said “These are solid recommendations for asset classes that provide non-correlated returns. This is what the majority of institutional investors invest in. It’s clearly read the books.”

In this answer, ChatGPT notes that it’s hard to create an uncorrelated ETF since there is usually some level of co-movement. It urges that any portfolio should be chosen through analysis of the market, and — in good news for the finance community — once again encourages us to speak to an advisor.

Recognizing the limitations of ChatGPT is an important caveat to our informal experiment. The tool is language based, and optimized for dialog — it wasn’t designed to predict the markets. OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is transparent about its limitations, such as its “limited knowledge” of anything after 2021.

Since the tool won’t provide us a new machine-made portfolio in detail, we tried the next best thing and asked it to name “the best AI-powered ETF.” But for some reason, ChatGPT struggles to identify any at all — despite the likes of AIEQ having the words “AI Powered” in its name. And while it does say “there are some ETFs that use artificial intelligence (AI) as part of their investment process,” the tool doesn’t go on to name any.

If it were naming names, it would likely mention the $419 million WisdomTree U.S. AI Enhanced Value Fund (AIVL), one of the largest. Alongside its sister fund, the $82 million WisdomTree International AI Enhanced Value Fund (AIVI), it underwent changes a year ago to incorporate AI and machine learning into its strategy and name.

AIVL has returned about 0.8% in the past year while AIVI has lost 2.6%, versus a 6.1% loss for the S&P 500 Total Return Index. The two funds are posting mixed performance against the benchmark in 2023, with gains of 3.7% and 7.9%, respectively.

Also nearing an anniversary is the $26 million AdvisorShares Let Bob AI Powered Momentum ETF (LETB), which turns one-year-old next month and analyzes a blend of data to gauge both fundamental sentiment and technical price momentum. It has lost about 9.2% since launch, but is roughly flat in 2023.

One specialist issuer, Qraft AI, runs several small funds powered by machine. Its $12 million Qraft AI-Enhanced US Large Cap Momentum ETF (AMOM) has returned 4.5% this year.

Meanwhile, the $1.7 billion SPDR S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF (KOMP) is the largest and most eye-catching of the cohort. One of a number of State Street Global Advisors funds incorporating machines, it tracks an index that uses AI and quant methodologies to pick stocks benefitting from, among other things, AI. It’s up 10% this year.

Matt Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street, says the use of AI means the fund can analyze a much larger set of potential investments than humans alone can manage.

“AI looks at thousands of pages in mere seconds,” Bartolini said. “You can increase productivity in the coverage scope than with a more human-based approach.”

To end our experiment, we decided to be direct. We told ChatGPT bluntly to “explain whether artificial intelligence can pick stocks better than a human.” Here’s what we got back, in full:

So it seems there’s hope for the humans of Wall Street yet."

MY COMMENT

We are definitely going to see more and more emphasis on AI in stock trading.....especially short term trading. At some point it is going to be very difficult to beat it. BUT....that is a long way off. AND....at that point we are going to see very crazy extreme markets.

 

After about an hour and a half the markets are STILL doing well.....holding about the same. The day is not set in stone.....we could definitely see the gains escalate over the course of the day.....or.....we could see them fade. A typical day on Wall Street.

It is fun to have a more normal market going on so far this year. It is a much needed shot in the arm for beat down investors. Long term investors are not immune to the short term emotions and drama of a bear market. It can weigh you down.

It is nice to be in the middle of a little break from the dreary markets of last year. The best way to avoid and deal with the emotions of a bear market.

Have an investment plan.

Have good self awareness of your risk tolerance and your portfolio risk.

Pick good quality companies with fundamental strength.

Use passive indexes like the SP500 Index to smooth out your investment results and capture long term market gains.

Avoid short term trading, market timing, options and other leverage products, etc, etc, etc.

Have reasonable expectations based on awareness of stock and market history.

Educate, educate, educate, yourself.

Live life and avoid the day to day market drama if it upsets you.

Have CONFIDENCE in the power of long term investing.

So for me......yes.....I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

The poor housing market is stuck in a rut lately......with the standoff between potential buyers and owners who will not list their homes.

U.S. new home sales post third straight monthly gain

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-home-sales-post-third-154956240.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased for a third straight month in December as mortgage rates continued to decline, offering hope that the struggling housing market was starting to stabilize.

New home sales increased 2.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. November's sales pace was revised lower to 602,000 units from the previously reported 640,000.

Sales rose in the Midwest and South, which are generally considered affordable regions. They fell in the Northeast and West. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, falling to a rate of 617,000 units. Sales dropped 26.6% year on year in December. They decreased 16.4% in 2022.

The Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s has driven housing into recession. Falling mortgage rates have, however, raised hope that the housing market could soon stabilize, though at depressed levels.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to an average 6.15% last week, the lowest level since mid-September, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.

The rate was down from 6.33% in the prior week and has dropped from an average of 7.08% early in the fourth quarter, which was the highest since 2002. But it remains well above the 3.56% average during the same period last year.

The median new house price in December was $442,100, a 7.8% increase from a year ago. There were 461,000 new homes on the market at the end of last month, unchanged from November. Houses under construction accounted for 63.1% of the inventory, with homes yet to be built making up 21.5%.

Completed houses accounted for 15.4% of the inventory, well below a long-term average of 27%. At December's sales pace it would take 9.0 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 9.2 months in November."

MY COMMENT

This is new home data. Most areas are probably seeing continued lack of inventory for "used" homes. Mortgage rates above....look about normal in terms of my lifetime. The NORMAL range for mortgage rates over my 50 years of home buying is about.......4.5% to 7%......if you omit the extreme high rates of the 1980's and the extreme low rates we saw recently.

In my little area......there is a total lack of inventory. We have 35 homes actively for sale out of about 4200. Seventeen are over $1MILLION and 18 are below. The market seems to be just lingering with a bit of positive year to year gain. I have noticed a few of the higher priced homes go pending lately. I think we are at the start of a good spring for those that own a home.......in terms of appreciation in value.