The Long Term Investor

So far.....the rally today is weathering the EAST COAST lunch hour. I STILL see the underlying market direction as being very positive ....despite last week.

Of course.....the above is in the context of being a long term investor.......and....a person that is fully invested all the time. So that is MY BIAS.

 

WELL....unless disaster strikes in the last 20 minutes......we are going to close with a nice FAT gain today. It is good to see the markets re-gain back some of the losses from last week.

 

I HATE this story....for the actual story.

Ford ramps up EV spending with $3.5B battery plant in Michigan

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford...-35b-battery-plant-in-michigan-184809743.html

HERE is what I hate to see:

"Although the plant is wholly owned by Ford, it is working with China’s CATL in order to produce the LFP batteries. Ford says it will “manufacture the battery cells using LFP battery cell knowledge and services provided by CATL.”

This is significant because earlier this year Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin blocked a planned Ford and CATL battery plant in Virginia, claiming it was a “Trojan Horse” for China that would undermine U.S. interests. Gov. Youngkin, a former co-CEO of private equity giant Carlyle Group, was criticized by both business and state government leaders for blocking the deal."

Just asinine that we are having an American company partnering with the Chinese on an American factory. We are just IDIOTS. No doubt we are paying them for technology that was stolen from us to begin with. In addition they will now have intimate and total access to any tech that comes out of this plant.

We are pretty much hopeless when it comes to China.....so....I guess we deserve what we get in the end.

 

I do like this little story.....but.....I will not hold my breath even though I hope it is true.

Inflation could ease faster than Fed believes, reducing need for rate hikes, easing recession risk

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-could-ease-faster-fed-100100808.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Could inflation ease more swiftly than the Federal Reserve expects?

Consumer price increases have pulled back sharply in recent months but Fed Chair Jerome Powell says further declines to the Fed’s 2% annual target may prove a tougher slog.

As a result, he says, the Fed may need to raise its key interest rate even higher than the 5% to 5.25% peak officials have forecast, an aggressive strategy that many economists say will trigger a recession.

"We will need substantially more evidence to be confident inflation is on a sustained downward path," Powell said after raising its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a 4.5% to 4.75% range earlier this month. It capped the most aggressive flurry of rate increases – 4.5 percentage points – since the early 1980s.

Some top economists, however, say inflation is poised to tumble more rapidly than Fed officials expect in coming months, a scenario that could limit further rate hikes and help avoid a downturn.

Their sanguine outlook hinges on two developments:

►Rent, which makes up 40% of inflation that excludes food and energy, could slide more briskly than Fed officials believe over the next few months.

►Wage growth in service industries like health care, education, and white-collar professions doesn’t appear to be driving up prices as much as Powell fears.

Inflation eased to 6.5% in December from 7.1% in November and a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Barclays predicts the Labor Department on Tuesday will report a further drop to 6.2% in January.

Powell has noted that much of the decline can be traced to falling prices for goods such as used cars, furniture and appliances as pandemic-related supply chain troubles have been resolved.

How much have rents increased?

Rent, meanwhile, was a big culprit in the inflation run-up as COVID led people to move into their own apartments. But it’s showing signs of slowing, Powell says. Rent for new leases fell for four straight months on a monthly basis before flatlining in January, according to RealPage, a real estate research and property management software company.

RealPage chief economist Jay Parsons mostly points to a large supply of new apartment buildings that are moderating price gains along with weaker renter demand tied to a softening economy. Apartment occupancy was at 94.8% last month, down from 97.5% a year earlier, RealPage figures show.

Yet rent was up 8.3% annually in December, the most since 1982, according to the CPI. Powell has noted it could take until much later this year before the drop in rent for new leases significantly affects lease renewals for existing tenants and brings down overall rents.

“Housing inflation tends to lag other prices around inflation turning points…because of the slow rate at which the stock of rental leases turns over,” Powell said in a speech in late November.

Parsons disagrees. While new tenants generally pay more in rent than existing ones, the gap between those groups has been steadily shrinking, from 10.1% in June to 3.3% in January, RealPage data shows. That’s a perilous situation for landlords, Parsons says because existing renters who don’t think they’re getting a better deal than new arrivals will bolt.

As a result, he thinks rent increases for lease renewals will decline quickly. Already, he says, the average annual rise has dropped to 8% from 11% last summer and he expects a retreat to low single-digit price gains by mid-2023. He projects rent inflation broadly will drop to 3% this year from 14.6% in 2021 and 5.7% last year.

“It’s changing very fast,” Parsons says.

Is inflation caused by rising wages?

Powell’s biggest concern is inflation for services, excluding housing, such as health care and education. It makes up 56% of underlying inflation excluding food and energy and hasn’t budged noticeably, Powell says. Most of those price increases, he says, are driven by rising wages.

The Fed, in turn, must slow wage increases by raising interest rates to dampen employer demand for workers and reduce job growth.

Last week, after the January employment revealed a booming 517,000 job gains, Powell said, "“I think it underscores the message … that we have a significant road ahead to get inflation down to 2%.”

But a Morgan Stanley analysis shows the biggest part of such services inflation over the past two years was in transportation, especially airfares. Airfares, however, increased sharply starting in mid-2021 not because of climbing wages but because of COVID-related fuel price surges and a burst of pent-up consumer demand for travel, says Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist wrote in a research note.

Now, fuel prices have dropped and travel demand is steadier. Airfares fell on a monthly basis in six of the last seven months of 2022, CPI figures show. And while they were still up 28.5% annually in December, the monthly declines should soon bring down the yearly increase, Carpenter says.

The bottom line?

“Wage inflation wasn’t really what was driving the surge in inflation,” Carpenter says. “Our view is it’s not as big a deal as you may think.”

Carpenter expects the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – which is different than the CPI – to fall to 2.9% by the end of the year, below the Fed’s 3.1% forecast."

MY COMMENT

Just one opinion piece obviously........but a rare voice in the wilderness of negativity.

 

If you are into FED DOOM and GLOOM here you go.

Inflation report due Tuesday has the potential to deliver some bad news

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/inf...s-the-potential-to-deliver-some-bad-news.html

"Key Points

• All market eyes Tuesday will be on the release of the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a widely followed inflation gauge.
• Economists are expecting that the CPI will show a 0.4% increase in January, which would translate into 6.2% annual growth. However, there’s some indication the number could be even higher.
• The Federal Reserve is determined to keep fighting inflation, so the report could harden their position."

MY COMMENT

I really dont care about the FED drama so not posting the whole thing. If you are interested feel free to click. In any event...this will be old news after tomorrow.

 

If you are into FED DOOM and GLOOM here you go.

Inflation report due Tuesday has the potential to deliver some bad news

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/inf...s-the-potential-to-deliver-some-bad-news.html

"Key Points

• All market eyes Tuesday will be on the release of the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a widely followed inflation gauge.
• Economists are expecting that the CPI will show a 0.4% increase in January, which would translate into 6.2% annual growth. However, there’s some indication the number could be even higher.
• The Federal Reserve is determined to keep fighting inflation, so the report could harden their position."

MY COMMENT

I really dont care about the FED drama so not posting the whole thing. If you are interested feel free to click. In any event...this will be old news after tomorrow.

 

I had a nice significant gain in my ten stocks today. I also got in a good beat on the SP500 by 0.72% today.

Plenty of cushion going forward from here in the event of a nasty correction. It is so nice to be done with 2022 and into 2023. Two may be a lucky number in China....but in terms of 2022....it sucked.

 

Tomorrow will be all about the January CPI number......and....how the media and others choose to spin it. It will be released at 8:30 Eastern time so it will be the focus of the markets during the morning. Could be a WILD DAY.....or a.....SNOOZE-FEST. Take your pick.

I say......SHOW ME THE MONEY.

 

Lots of earnings beats still coming in. BUT....today is all about the CPI.....at least early in the market day.

Stock market news today: Stocks fall after January CPI shows inflation picked up
Here's what's moving markets on Tuesday, February 14, 2023.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-february-14-2023-112357213.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks sank Tuesday morning as Wall Street weighed the implications of hotter-than-expected January inflation data on the path forward for interest rates.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 0.7% at the open, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed nearly 200 points, or 0.6%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) declined 0.8%.

The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Tuesday morning showed prices rose 0.5% in the first month of the year, and 6.4% on an annual basis, more than economists expected.

Core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components of the report, climbed 0.4% over the prior month and 5.6% year-over-year, also higher than forecast.

Bloomberg consensus estimates called for a 6.2% rise in CPI over the year and jump 0.5% month-over-month. New seasonal adjustments released by the BLS on Friday also switched December's initial reading of a 0.1% monthly drop in headline inflation to an increase of 0.1% in the year's final month. Forecasts called for a 5.5% annual increase and 0.4% monthly rise in the core CPI reading.

"While there were no major surprises in today’s CPI reading, it is a reminder that while inflation has peaked it could be a while before we see it moderate to normal levels," Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office head of model portfolio construction Mike Loewengart said in a note.

"The question remains if inflation will be able to fall to the Fed’s target levels with the labor market as tight as it currently is," Loewengart added. "That could be the recipe for a soft landing, but it remains to be seen when the Fed will shift away from rate hikes and if the labor market will lose its resiliency."

"If you look at the 12-month change, we saw some pretty hefty inflation. It's down substantially from the peak, and we'll probably see inflation continue to moderate as the year goes on. But even by year-end, optimistically, inflation is still going to be up 3%, maybe 3.5% from a year and a half ago," Cumberland Advisors chief U.S. economist David W. Berson told Yahoo Finance Live Monday.

"My guess is the Fed will not ease this year — it may not tighten much more, we might see Fed funds at the peak go a little above 5% — but that's very different from an expectation that by year-end the Fed will ease."

EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco deemed the Federal Reserve's "extreme" data dependence a a "risky strategy in a highly volatile global macroeconomic environment."

"By devolving control of the narrative, the Fed exposes itself to potential abrupt pivots in market sentiment depending on the flow of economic data, which has been and will likely continue to be extremely volatile," Daco said in an emailed note.

Back on the corporate side, shares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) surged 11% after the Peter Thiel-founded data firm reported its first-ever profitable quarter and said it expects 2023 to be its first profitable year.

Avis Budget Group's (CAR) stock advanced 1% after the car-rental company unveiled quarterly results after the closing bell Monday that beat Wall Street estimates.

Tesla (TSLA) increased the price of its Model Y performance crossover by $1,000 to $58,990, while cutting the price of the Model 3 sedan by $500 to $42,990, Reuters pointed out based on updates on the company's website. This marks the fourth price change in two months. Shares slipped slightly after Tesla logged its biggest two-day drop in more than a month on Monday, falling 6.1% across the past two trading sessions."

MY COMMENT

It is a JOKE and the insanity of the short term that causes market days like today to be totally focused on a singe economic data point that is actually meaningless to the medium or long term. The CPI number is actually.....basically....right where expected. A microscopic difference from what the...."experts".....the gods of Wall Street....expected is meaningless.

No long term investor will remember what the CPI was in January in six months,......much less years. This is all just a big media game to drive the DRAMA.

AND......there will be ZERO impact on what the FED does......it is still going to be exactly as expected.....another 2-3 rate increases of 0.25% going forward and than they will hold till some time in 2024.

AND.....at the moment the NASDAQ is positive, the SP500 is positive and the DOW is barley negative.

 

Off to a routine DR apt....more later. Take care of the markets while I am gone.

 

OK....back from my DR visit. Good to have a medical professional verify that I am still alive.

I looked at my account a minute ago. I am in the red by a bit....but am ahead of the SP500 at the moment. I have three stocks UP.....NKE, TSLA, and NVDA. I am satisfied with that result for mid day on a CPI reporting day.

These days that get OVERSIZED attention on some report or event are generally a JOKE....but....what can you do when you are a long term investor other than just get through them and move on to the longer term.

Now I will move on to my next critical event of the day.....the dishwasher repair guy.

 

I like this little article......from Fisher..... I have never used them to manage money but I do generally agree with their articles and content since it is oriented to the long term investor. They sure spend a bundle on TV commercials.

What to Make of January’s Jobs Boom

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...commentary/what-to-make-of-januarys-jobs-boom

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Breaking down the abundance of chatter on January’s stronger-than-expected numbers.

US jobs boomed in January. But, like many data points today, the reaction to that boom was largely mixed, with competing camps arguing over whether the data portend good or bad things for the US economy ahead. In our view, though, it is a mistake to read too much into January’s better-than-expected numbers, as jobs won’t tell you much about where the economy is headed.

January nonfarm payrolls rose 517,000, well above consensus estimates of 185,000, while the 3.4% unemployment rate was the lowest since May 1969. Many headlines pointed out January’s jobs gains were broad based, seemingly more than offsetting high-profile Tech layoffs. Of 14 major sectors, only two—Utilities and Information (which houses Tech)—lost jobs on a monthly basis.[ii] Leisure and hospitality (128,000) was the biggest gainer, led by food services and drinking places (98,600).[iii] January also got a boost from the government sector, as a strike involving 36,000 University of California workers ended.

The far bigger-than-expected figures led many pundits to recalibrate their earlier views. Some now argue all the recent recession chatter was flat wrong, with the US economy buoyed by the strong and resilient labor market. But a large contingent worries the jobs data are actually bad news, suggesting the strength may spur the Fed to tighten more and send rates higher on concerns that still-tight labor markets will keep prices elevated.

Still others, interestingly, implied January’s stronger-than-expected stemmed in part from calculation quirks, e.g., “updated seasonal adjustment factors.” The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) applies its seasonal adjustment methodology to account for expected variations in hiring and layoffs based on the time of year. (e.g., retailers adding help for the holidays.) The agency relies heavily on the past three years to determine the expected seasonal change and calculates its factors each month based on most recent data.

Based on the reaction to the latest numbers, though, some seem to think BLS overcorrected with its seasonal adjustments—e.g., there were fewer-than-usual post-holiday layoffs, which may have boosted nonfarm payrolls—and the most recent calculations injected an error into January’s read. The implication: There is no way jobs numbers can be this strong in today’s economic environment, so some of it must be a calculation issue.

That is possible, as no methodology is perfect—and economic data are always subject to some error. But in our view, this doubt speaks more to skeptical sentiment than cooked numbers. Consider: The BLS updates its seasonal adjustments regularly. If this is indeed a methodology problem, January’s nonfarm payroll change would probably be subject to a large revision frequently. This happened with the BEA’s preliminary GDP estimates—despite their best efforts to account for seasonality, GDP growth would often slow or even contract in Q1 and speed up in Q2.[iv] However, the last decade suggests January’s revision to nonfarm payrolls doesn’t stand out relative to the average monthly revision for the year. (Exhibit 1)

Exhibit 1: Revisions Between Monthly Estimates in Nonfarm Payroll Changes, 2010 – 2019


Source: BLS, as of 2/8/2023. Numbers represent thousands of persons. Revisions are between first estimate and third estimate of monthly change in nonfarm payrolls.

Now, it is possible the BLS applies a big revision to January 2023’s number. But that update would be old news to stocks—they have long since moved on from January’s hiring decisions and are looking forward. Yet that hasn’t stopped many from fretting over the jobs report’s future implications—particularly for potential Fed action and a potential recession. The former operates on longstanding misperceptions surrounding central banks’ macroeconomic impact and, particularly, the relationship between inflation and employment. Besides the futility in trying to predict what central bankers will do in reaction to any data, history shows monetary policy’s impact on jobs is limited, and there is little actual evidence tight labor markets boost wages and drive up inflation generally. Other factors, including the economic cycle and political and regulatory matters, factor more heavily into businesses’ willingness to hire or lay off workers. And, as Nobel laureate Milton Friedman taught, wages typically follow inflation.

On recession, always remember: Employment data are late-lagging—so whether jobs numbers are strong or weak, they won’t tell you whether a downturn is coming. They tell you more about what businesses have already endured. Hiring employees is a big investment of time and money, and the decisions around employment can be very emotional. Businesses aren’t likely to make major changes unless they absolutely have to—for instance, they generally hire because the business can’t meet customer demand without more employees. Or, they typically lay people off to cut expenses after a downturn is well underway. So you can’t draw many forward conclusions from the actions.

Recent Tech layoffs are kind of a case in point. First, note, the industry isn’t representative of the labor market (or economy at large)—the Information industry comprises about 2% of total nonfarm payrolls.[v] But also, after booming in 2020 and 2021—and adding many jobs as a result—the Tech sector led 2022’s bear market down. Many Tech firms did see previously hot growth rates cool some. So it isn’t that shocking that they cut payrolls in response after adding hugely. But again, that likely says more about the conditions these businesses already endured than what is to come.

This doesn’t mean we think investors should ignore jobs data, which are chock-full of interesting information about industry and labor trends. But from an investing perspective, we think they are useful for what they say about sentiment than anything about the US economy’s prospects going forward. The acknowledgement of the resilience—and fretting over the Fed’s activities—point to some ongoing improvement in moods, though skepticism persists.

MY COMMENT

In other words....no big deal........and.....who cares. At least as this applies to people that are investing for the long term.

I tend to not get very excited about any sort of economic data since it is not the focus of my investing approach. My key criteria is the fundamental business results of the companies that I own.....it is that simple.

As to the companies that I own.....I am pleased with all of them except for AMAZON. I continue to watch them and will do so over the next 1-2 years. For the past three years their stock is NEGATIVE. I want to see how they do going forward over at least 1-2 years as we get beyond the pandemic. My primary concern is their current management which has been in place over a year ans so far is not impressing me.

 

NOW......here is an economic indicator that I am sure a lot of people can get into.....BEER.

What crappy beer demand tells us about the economy
Don’t blame Dry January

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/what-crappy-beer-demand-tells-us-about-the-economy

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"People aren’t buying as much beer as they used to, and it’s not a great indicator for the economy.

U.S. beer shipment to wholesalers declined 14.1% in December 2022 compared to the year prior, according to a Wells Fargo note published on Jan. 27. Compared to 2020, shipping volume is down 19.4%. We saw the lowest volume since 2012 in December.

It’s not as clear as saying that people simply don’t want beer, or that consumers are becoming more budget-conscious. There are a few factors afoot here.

Inflation is changing consumer decisions, even around beer

Beer became suddenly pricey at the end of last year. Beer prices at retail, which doesn’t include bars or restaurants, popped 7% during the last 13 weeks of 2022, according to industry data provider Bump Williams Consulting. This is an unusually high increase, the consulting firm said.

That price increase is showing up in how people are buying brews, said Dave Williams, vice president of Bump Williams Consulting. People are increasingly buying, say, 12-packs over 30-packs or even single servings of beer.


They’re trading down too — snagging the more economic Keystone over comparatively pricey Coors. That explains why the “below premium” segment was the only one to see an increase in demand in January compared to January 2022, according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association’s Beer Purchasers’ Index.



Demand for almost every segment of beer declined in January — except for the “below premium” market. That includes sumptuous nectars like Miller High Life. (Source: National Beer Wholesalers Association)

“We have seen that beer drinkers are relatively loyal to the category,” Williams said in an interview. “They are resilient, they find different ways to maintain their consumption, but as prices go up they are faced with different decisions.”

Let’s hear it for the resilient American beer drinker!

However, loyal beer enjoyers, as a category, isn’t what it used to be.

People are spending top dollar on other types of alcohol

There’s a decades-long move away from beer as folks buy more hard liquor. The Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, a trade group, announced on Thursday that spirits officially edged out beer in market share in 2022. (By a fifth of a percentage point, but a victory is a victory!)

“There was a point in time when beer owned the landscape,” said Lester Jones, who is the chief economist at the National Beer Wholesalers Association, in an interview. “It was the primary beverage of choice for people; it was the ultimate beverage of choice for the majority of Americans.”

Despite your Dry January pledge, Jones said the volume of people’s alcohol consumption doesn’t change much over time. However, what exactly people drink does change.

In the last few decades, Americans have experienced new types of imported alcohol and new beverages altogether. Prosecco, for instance, practically didn’t exist in the U.S. in the early 2000s; by 2021, the U.S. imported some 25 million gallons of the sparkling stuff.

Then there are new offerings like hard seltzers and canned cocktails, the latter of which saw purchases increase 35.8% from 2021 to 2022.

What’s more, as these new innovations come to the scene, people who are trying alcohol for the first time (at the legal age of 21, of course) might enjoy a canned margarita instead of, say, a good ol’ fashioned keg stand. That could get them accustomed to enjoying hard liquor instead of beer.

Beer discounts are a-comin’

Executives have known for months that the price of beer is too darn high and that consumers are sick of it. The CEO of Constellation Brands, which makes Corona, admitted last fall that the company needs to balance these price bumps going forward.

We got an early indicator last week that such declines are coming. Ball Corp., a leading beverage packaging producer, says its beer customers are pursuing “aggressive” promotions after suds were the most “distressed” beverage category of 2022. That doesn’t mean slashed prices, but promotions instead.

Of course, it’s not unusual for brewers and grocers to promote beer ahead of Super Bowl Sunday, which is essentially Christmas for the beer industry. However, Williams said these promotions will likely go further than in previous years.

The bizarro economy continues on

You might be wondering why a trucking reporter is writing about beer sales. It’s not because I like beer. I don’t. (I really hope the two guys I interviewed above who clearly have a passion for beer do not read this part.)


However, the state of alcohol purchasing says something larger about the American consumer. We’re seeing folks once again organize into two camps – haves and have nots.

Consumer demand for singular “sub-premium” beers is rising at the same time as high-end mezcal. It’s yet another indicator of our bizarro economy, where frivolous goods like air fryers are cheap but staples like eggs and meat are increasingly unaffordable.

This consumer demand is baked into what retailers and transporters alike must value. Retailers increasingly prioritize those products with quick turnaround, both Williams and Jones told FreightWaves. That means stocking up on Natural Light (and preferably those single cans) and $50 bottles of George Clooney’s Casamigos tequila."

MY COMMENT

WELL......I guess not much of an indicator of anything other than changing consumer taste and what younger consumers are moving toward. BUT......feel free to use this as an excuse to do some research......go buy some BEER.....and test it out.

Which brings me to my next topic......investing while drunk. Please.......MADI......."Mothers Against Drunk Investing"......warn aabout the dangers of investing while drunk. PLEASE....for your own protection.....avoid this at all costs.

 

I had a nice little gain today. Earlier in the day when I checked my account about mid day I had a feeling that the day would end positive for the averages. I also felt like it might end up positive for the averages but negative for my mix of ten stocks.

In tne end the SP500 was slightly negative and the NASDAQ was positive. I beat the SP500 today by 0.54%......and....ended with six of my ten stocks positive for a good small gain. My down stocks today.....AAPL, COST, HON, and HD.

All in all a very nice day for me and the second green day this week for my account.

 

THIS.....is how we closed today.....bummer for the fear mongers and drama queens.

Stock market news today: Stocks close mixed after CPI shows inflation picked up

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-february-14-2023-112357213.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks finished mixed in back-and-forth trading Tuesday afternoon as Wall Street weighed the implications of hotter-than-expected January inflation data on the path forward for interest rates.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished just below the flatline, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed about 150 points, or 0.4%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.6%. All three averages pared bigger losses from early in the session. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note climbing roughly 4 basis points to about 3.76%.

The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Tuesday morning showed prices rose 0.5% in the first month of the year, and 6.4% on an annual basis, more than economists expected.

Core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components of the report, climbed 0.4% over the prior month and 5.6% year-over-year, also higher than forecast.

Bloomberg consensus estimates called for a 6.2% rise in CPI over the year and jump 0.5% month-over-month. New seasonal adjustments released by the BLS on Friday also switched December's initial reading of a 0.1% monthly drop in headline inflation to an increase of 0.1% in the year's final month. Forecasts called for a 5.5% annual increase and 0.4% monthly rise in the core CPI reading.

"While there were no major surprises in today’s CPI reading, it is a reminder that while inflation has peaked it could be a while before we see it moderate to normal levels," Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office head of model portfolio construction Mike Loewengart said in a note."

etc, etc, etc.

MY COMMENT

Not a shocking CPI number. The markets know this and in the end did not take the bait and freak out. After the past couple of days of gains the BULL MARKET continues.....at least for me with my particular holdings.

 

Not real sure this is a good idea.

Amazon to double down on grocery business despite recent setbacks
Jassy took over as CEO in 2021

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/amazon-to-double-down-grocery-business-despite-recent-setbacks

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Amazon has intentions of "doubling down" on its physical grocery business when the company lands on the format it likes, CEO Andy Jassy indicated in a recent Financial Times interview.

His comments to the outlet come not long after he said during the latest earnings call that the company had chosen to pump the brakes on growing its Amazon Fresh footprint while it determines what works best for consumers. The e-commerce giant also revealed on the call its fourth quarter had $720 million in impairment charges stemming from closing some Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go stores "with low growth potential."

The Financial Times reported Monday that Jassy, who took over as CEO in 2021, said Amazon is "hopeful that in 2023, we have a format that we want to go big on, on the physical side."

"We have a history of doing a lot of experimentation and doing it quickly," the outlet quoted him as saying. "And then, when we find something that we like, doubling down on it, which is what we intend to do."

Jassy also reportedly said in the interview many Amazon Fresh stores "opened right in the heart of the pandemic," meaning they "haven’t had a lot of normalcy." He told the Financial Times that Amazon was "experimenting with selection, checkout formats, assortment, price points."

"I’m encouraged we have several that I think are promising," he reportedly added.

During the earnings call earlier in February, Jassy said Amazon "decided over the last year or so that we’re not going to expand the physical Fresh doors until we have that equation with differentiation and economic value that we like," something he said the company is optimistic it will find this year.

"We’re working hard at it," he continued at the time. "We see some encouraging signs. And when we do find that equation, we will expand it more expansively."

Jassy said on the call with analysts and investors he thought Amazon has a "pretty significant-sized grocery business" but acknowledged it currently "doesn’t have a big market segment share in perishables."

He also praised Whole Foods, which Amazon bought in 2017, as a "good business for us in the grocery space" that’s growing and predicted grocery would become "omnichannel" over time.

For the fourth quarter, Amazon reported the company overall generated $149.2 billion in net sales, up from the $137.4 billion it posted in the same three-month period the prior year. Its net income, meanwhile, narrowed by 98% to $278 million.

The price of Amazon stock was roughly $99.50 on Monday, making it nearly 16% higher than it was at the start of the year and over 35% lower over the past 12 months. '

MY COMMENT

I dont like this idea at all. Although this might simply be face-saving comments by Jassy. I have no interest in owning a huge, labor intensive, grocery business.

 

OK....today was good. LETS MAKE SOME (more) MONEY TOMORROW.