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The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    PERSONALLY.....I prefer to NOT go with any "trend" or "play" any side of anything. I prefer to buy great businesses and hold them until they no longer satisfy my criteria for what is a great business. Hopefully for many many years if not decades. When people start to talk about playing a trend or not fighting a trend......to me......that is simply market timing or trading of some sort. I have seen it all come and go.......around and around.....over the past 45+ years of investing. AND....I have seen the findings of the academic research proven true over and over and over. Market timing.......trading......technical analysis.....DO NOT WORK. They do not beat the SIMPLE unmanaged averages.....especially over the long term.......5-10 years or more. I prefer to invest according to PROBABILITY......and.....I define probability as what is PROVEN by actual research and data that is statistically significant.

    BUT......to each their own. If it is NOT my money, I dont care what anyone else chooses to do.

    I have a friend that is STILL working as a Vice President at a major brokerage at age 80. He has told me often that over his 50-60 years in the business he can count on one hand the number of people he has seen or known that can beat the SP500.

    As to my criteria for what is a great business......I have posted it many times on here. Companies that are....AMERICAN...have GREAT MANAGEMENT....have ICONIC PRODUCTS.....that DOMINATE THEIR MARKET world wide......that SELL their products world wide.......usually pay a DIVIDEND......and have long term STAYING POWER.

    I will also mention that over my investing years there have been a handful of businesses that have something EXTRA. That EXTRA THING is a VISIONARY LEADER that can actually make things happen and BUILD businesses. EXAMPLES would be AMAZON, APPLE, MICROSOFT in the early days, COSTCO, NIKE, etc, etc. These people are very RARE. They dont care about being a celebrity CEO. They have some special, INBORN, ability to lead and achieve. They are very RARE. They are not in it to sell out and make a bundle. They are not in it for the celebrity. They are NOT politicians. They are often not very SOCIAL or POPULAR. BUT.......they are DRIVEN to succeed against ALL odds.......and.....what makes them actually RARE....is the fact that they ACTUALLY do it over and over.

    That is one reason that I recently........finally.......bought a very small trial position in TESLA. I finally had to put MUSK in that category of leader. He has proven that he can BUILD and INNOVATE in multiple fields of business. I suspect that he has been UNDERESTIMATED his entire life.......this sort of leader usually is.
     
    #1421 WXYZ, Jun 26, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2020
  2. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    @WXYZ

    I certainly appreciate this thread and admire your success and conviction to your methods. That's how winners, win.

    Please don't let my candor be disrespectful nor ill directed.

    That said I do play both sides, short and long. And it works for me. But I do not pump mine over yours. I just discuss.

    Most of my holdings have always been long and only in market conditions like we had in recent months do I play the short game in conjunction with my longs, and only to supplement volatility profits. My long positions have provided from 10to 30% per year over the last 15 years, but in 08/09 and now, the short plays typically bump up my overall returns 50% or more. I like to "play" during extreme volatility, but I am a turtle when it comes to my safe money.

    So yes, I do like this thread and what you offer is great advice well placed. But I may post from time to time, like this year, opinions that appear to the contrary.
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NO HARM.....Brontide. There is no need to agree with me in this thread. I actually welcome and like your posts and I hope you continue to put up your thoughts. I MEAN IT when I say.....ANYONE is welcome to post their experiences, style, etc, etc, in this thread REGARDLESS of if they agree or not.

    Lively discussion is a good thing. NO two people are going to invest the same way.
     
    The Brontide likes this.
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL.......new week going to start tomorrow. BUT....it will be a short week for the markets with Friday being a holiday and the markets being closed for the 4th of July. I "like" this little article and what it FORETELLS going forward for the markets:

    Americans Hold Huge Pile of Cash That’s Key to Economic Recovery

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-hold-huge-pile-cash-120000698.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Just like back in 2008, the Federal Reserve has pumped record amounts of cash into the financial system this year to stave off an economic collapse. But unlike in 2008, when that money mostly piled up in banks’ accounts at the Fed, funds are pouring into Americans’ checking accounts.

    And that’s a big distinction.

    When kept at the Fed by banks as excess reserves, the money fails to give the jolt to the economy. But put it directly in people’s pockets -- which occurred this time because Fed support was matched by government stimulus -- and the potential boost suddenly becomes meaningful.

    The numbers are eye-popping. In the three months through May, the most liquid portion of the money supply, as measured by a gauge known as M1, surged 26%.

    That’s triple the jump posted in the corresponding three-month period in 2008 and is more than any full-year increase recorded in the six decades that officials have been tracking the data.

    The question now is whether Americans really do go out and spend that money as the country -- slowly and in fits and starts -- reopens for business.

    There are those, like University of Pennsylvania Professor Jeremy Siegel, who answer with a resounding yes and envision a boom in consumer spending in months ahead that will power economic growth and spark inflation in 2021.

    Others worry the exact opposite will occur, that Americans, unnerved by how the unemployment rate has soared amid the pandemic, will opt to hoard that money as rainy-day savings and, in the process, throttle the recovery.

    The economists in this camp clearly outnumber those in the Siegel group. Whatever the case, one thing is clear: There are few, if any, factors more important in determining the pace of the U.S. rebound than the fate of this cash.

    Money on Hand

    “If the savings rate remains elevated then growth will be impaired,” says Yelena Shulyatyeva at Bloomberg Economics. “The biggest worry is that consumers will not restart spending.”

    It sounds odd in the throes of the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression that Americans, on paper, have more money on hand than they have in years. Recessions make us poorer, and more than 40 million people in the U.S. have lost their jobs at some point during the pandemic.

    But the federal government has taken huge steps to replace lost income. Since March Congress has approved more than $2.8 trillion in aid, including significant amounts sent directly to households -- all while the country has been on an enforced consumer diet with retailers, restaurants and other businesses shuttered.

    Savings Rate

    In April, the U.S. personal savings rate -- the percentage of disposable income that households manage to sock away -- jumped to 32.2%. Before Covid-19 in records that date to 1959, that number had never exceeded 17.3%, and had cleared 10% only once since 1995. Fresh monthly data from the Commerce Department Friday showed the savings rate subsided to the still-lofty level of 23.2% in May.

    On top of that, companies facing deep uncertainty have drawn on revolving lines of credit to the tune of more than $200 billion, according to Morgan Stanley. Other firms have been able to tap bond markets. Very little of that credit has gone to new projects or investments.

    “If you’re a business, do you invest now or wait and see what the state of the world is in a few months?” says Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics.

    The flood of money has been made possible by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive response to the pandemic. It’s purchased more than $1.6 trillion in U.S. Treasuries since early March, effectively financing more than half the government stimulus. Its emergency lending programs have also kept credit flowing to companies, sometimes directly but more often by reassuring traditional lenders that markets will stay liquid.

    M1, M2

    The U.S. isn’t alone. Central banks and governments in developed markets around the world have been feverishly printing and distributing money to prevent companies and families from going under. And in those places as GDP has swooned, bank accounts have swollen.

    Siegel’s reaction is the classic response by an economist trained to pay close attention to money aggregates. In a June 16 podcast with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholz, he recalled Milton Friedman saying bank reserves are good in a downturn because they stimulate the economy.

    “But if those excess reserves get pushed into either M1 or M2, they’re going to be far more potent, far more potent, and that is exactly what is happening this time that did not happen last time,” he said, referring to central bank actions during the Great Recession.

    Inflation Fear

    He went on to worry that next year the U.S. will experience a spending boom, adding “for the first time in over two decades, we’re going to see inflation.”

    By Siegel’s own admission, he’s in the minority among economists.

    For starters, others say, government support for the unemployed is likely to at least shrink at the end of July when benefits approved under the CARES Act expire. Beneficiaries, if they have been able to salt anything away, are going to start tapping reserves just to get by.

    Moreover, if there is a surge in spending, and even if it spurs prices higher, it will be temporary.

    Roberto Perli, a former Fed economist and partner at Cornerstone Macro LLC, says a true episode of higher inflation, one that persists, would require a structural change in the economy.

    It’s hard for me to see positive structural change from this,” he says. “It’s more likely to be negative structural change.”

    Any resurgence is likely to be limited by the simple fact that some demand will never be made up.

    Lost Demand

    Delayed purchases of business attire and a new car may be realized once the economy is back to normal, but an office worker commuting into a city from her suburban home won’t be buying three months’ worth of train passes, or filling up her car with several tanks’ worth of gas.

    Something worse could come if a constantly re-emerging virus causes fear and uncertainty to alter consumer behavior in a lasting way. Instead of spending their reserves even when the coast is truly clear, households may think twice and turn involuntary savings into more permanent, precautionary savings.

    “There’s a behavioral aspect to a recession,” said Julia Coronado, president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives. “It’s not just about the actual shock. It’s about the loss of confidence that becomes a self-reinforcing drag on the economy.”

    The economic drag would also land hardest on the unemployed whose best chance of returning to work is a resurgence in shopping, dining, travel and entertaining. Workers in retail and hospitality were also already disproportionately low-income and minorities, meaning issues of inequality will only be exacerbated.

    “Everything should be geared toward getting those who have come out on the right side of this to have the confidence to go out and spend,” Shearing said."

    MY COMMENT

    We have NO CLUE how this shut down of the economy.......the first time in history.......will impact the economy short, medium, and long term. The money that is being PUMPED into the system WILL in some form or other come into the economic system. Either people will spend it directly as the economy slowly opens. OR.......they will save it and it will STILL get into the economy through the banking system in the form of loans, mortgages, and other lending.

    As to inflation.......I SUSPECT that those in the "no inflation" camp will be RIGHT. Whatever increased spending happens will be totally balanced out......if not TOTALLY eclipsed......by the carnage that will occur in the business world. Thousands of restaurants, bars, and other small businesses WILL NOT ever recover. Any increased spending by people will be TOTALLY offset by the very slow opening of the economy and the loss of so many small businesses. SO.......I see NO INFLATION. In fact........I see a continuation of the opposite.......world wide DEFLATION. We have been in a WORLD WIDE deflationary environment for the past 11 years. I BELIEVE that this will continue and will be the primary economic danger to the world.......ESPECIALLY....the EU countries that PRETEND to be capitalistic but are actually Socialistic, bureaucratic, FAILURES. FAILURES with little to no chance to turn things around......they will MUDDLE ALONG and will be a complete DRAG on the world economy for a long, long, time. Whether or not WE join them is up in the air for now........the ELECTION will be a big factor in determining whether we join them NOW or it drags out for a while.

    ALL IN ALL......I see this PENT UP cash and demand that will occur over the next 6-12 months as being a POSITIVE for investors.........IF.........BIG IF........we can avoid becoming another worthless EU style country.......investors in LEADING AMERICAN companies will reap BIG REWARDS as those companies totally dominate world business. We will benefit GREATLY if we can continue to be an ACTUAL capitalistic country while the rest of the world stagnates.
     
    #1424 WXYZ, Jun 28, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
  5. zukodany

    zukodany Active Member

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    And look at it.. Market is green again.. what a shock
    Wait.. but corona cases are SPIKING!!
    This red/green game is gonna go on for a looooong long time. No.... there will be no OTHER HUGE collapse for another decade or two. But this game will keep on going and going for awhile I suspect. I’ll wait for it to drop a little more and then reinvest in same positions I have. I CANT WAIT for it to drop, as my wife always tells me “so, is there a SALE today in the stock market?”
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WHEN a market wants to go up......it is just going to go up. You cant HOLD a good market down. Or something similar. TODAY is NOT the day for a SALE in the stock markets. There is........obviously........BIG pent up demand on the UP side of things in the markets and the business world. The key unknown........is.....how long will it last and when will it end. At least.......for those that are NOT long term investors.

    TODAY was a very good day for my accounts. Primary account saw 9 of 12 positions BEAT the SP500.......with the whole stock portion of the portfolio beating the SP500 by .21%.

    AND.....the BIG NEWS......I am now positive on my trial......."mini position".......in Tesla with a profit of $38.34 in one account and $47.92 in the other. Yes......I am being sarcastic. I am looking forward to the Tesla earnings around July 22. With some luck......well perhaps it will take a fair amount of luck......or some accounting magic........they will put up a profit and start the process to be placed in the SP500. In any event it WILL happen some time soon. It will be interesting to see what happens to the company and stock at that point.
     
  7. zukodany

    zukodany Active Member

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    Yes I was obviously being sarcastic with my opening 2 statements above. (What a shock= yawn, corona cases spiking= who the f really cares.. not the stock market OBVIOUSLY)
    I’ll have to wait till something else goes awfully wrong and invest during those “sale days” :)
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    It will happen. Over the short term there are ALWAYS corrections.

    I got my income tax return ready to mail. I will be mailing it on July 15 along with my BIG check.......someone has to support the government. This is the LAST YEAR that I will be paying BIG taxes. Because of how a big chunk of my income annuity payments are treated as return of investment........my taxes should be cut by 75-80% next year and from than on. We will actually be free of paying the extra premium for medicare and part D. AND we will get the FULL $2400 government stimulus on based on our 2020 return. I have been waiting for the lower taxes for a long time and they are now finally here. I encourage anyone that is younger.......do tax thinking and planing for your retirement years as early as possible. MOST people piling money into a regular IRA........or especially a 401K.......are going to pay ever increasing taxes for their entire retirement. If the government does not change the rules, I would think that the ROTH 401K will be a great way to save on taxes in retirement if it is offered by your company.
     
    B Russ likes this.
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    THRILLING day in the old markets today. It was NICE to look at my account after being out of touch all day and see some BIG gains. BEAT the SP500 by .27% with the SP500 being up today by 1.54% and my main account being up by 1.81%. ALSO very nice to see AMAZON up by $78........and........yep.....TESLA up by $70 today. NOT that the VERY short term means anything.....but it is nice to now have a 7.48% gain in my TESLA trial "mini-position". It gives me a SLIGHT cushion......very slight with the way this stock jumps around.

    NOW........lets break the recent trend of having a few nice days and than wiping it all out with a couple of down days. Lets finish up this short week with a run of positive days........in honor of the BIRTHDAY of OUR COUNTRY. We may not be perfect......BUT........we are about as good as it gets in the past 240+ years when you look at the various countries around the world.....at least in my opinion.
     
    zukodany and B Russ like this.
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Stock market MILESTONES give investors something to evaluate their performance against. Artificial......yes.......but needed by human brains to bring order and points of reference to investing as well as other events. HERE is a BIG ONE today:

    Stocks close out best quarter since 1998, clawing back most Q1 losses

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/30/stocks-markets-today-economy/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks overcame weeks of uncertainty, social unrest and a resurgence in coronavirus infections to finish one of Wall Street’s best quarters in history.

    Two of the three major stock indexes are still down for the first six months of the year, and Federal Reserve chairman Jerome H. Powell on Tuesday cautioned that the economic recovery remains “extraordinarily uncertain” in the face of the stubborn coronavirus.

    But indexes have rebounded from their March lows as investors placed their faith and money in the transformative power of remote technology and their belief that a slow but sure, broad recovery — backed by trillions in federal guarantees — is in the works.

    The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 216 points, or about 0.9 percent, to close at 25,812.34. The Dow sealed a 16 percent comeback in the second quarter, leaving the blue chips 10 percent short of breaking even for the year. Apple, Home Depot, Dow and Microsoft muscled the index higher in the quarter.

    The Standard & Poor’s 500 index jumped 1.5 percent during the session to cap its best quarter since the fourth quarter of 1998 — in the midst of the dot-com bubble — with a 19 percent gain. Energy, technology and discretionary spending — all industries tied to a broad economic recovery — led the S&P 500 for the quarter. The index closed Tuesday at 3,100.29 and is down 4 percent on the year.

    “The second quarter revival was like Lazarus coming back from the dead,” said Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices.

    The Nasdaq — led by a handful of technology powerhouses — is up more than 11 percent on the year. Stay-at-home stocks such as Zoom, payments firm PayPal Holdings, online marketplace MercadoLibre and electric-car maker Tesla powered the index to a 30 percent surge for the quarter. The index ended the day at 10,058.76, ahead 1.9 percent.

    The comeback follows a swift and frightening economic freeze caused by a virus that swept the globe, closing countries, demolishing economies and killing hundreds of thousands.

    The broad S&P 500 index was down 31 percent for the year on March 23 after states shut down, telling people to stay home to contain the virus. The pandemic grounded airlines; closed schools, sporting events and businesses; and brought commerce to a standstill. More than 47.3 million Americans have filed jobless claims since March.

    Much of Wall Street believes the economy bottomed out in April, followed by positive economic news that filtered up in May and June. Personal incomes rose 10.5 percent, thanks largely to federal stimulus checks, and unemployment filings leveled off. As more drivers took to the roads, the price of crude oil doubled in June, aiding a crucial industry that supports millions of jobs. The housing market is on the rise, thanks to record-low interest rates.

    Early in June, a closely watched report on private payrolls showed 2.8 million jobs lost in May, far fewer than the nearly 9 million experts had predicted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also issued surprisingly positive unemployment numbers, with the official rate dropping to 13.3 percent, an improvement from 14.7 percent in April. The agency releases June data on Thursday, just ahead of the holiday weekend.

    The Great Recession of 2020 may go down in history as the deepest but shortest recession,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.

    Analysts said tens of millions of Americans participating in 401(k) retirement plans might feel more confident about spending when they see their quarterly statements.

    “Many investors lived through 2008 and 2009, and learned from that experience the swiftness with which markets can rebound,” said Nicole Tanenbaum of Chequers Financial Management. “Those investors were rewarded for staying the course, and when they open their 401(k) statements later this month and see green numbers, they will again feel justified.”

    Most investors have sat tight through the turmoil. From mid-February through the end of May, fewer than 1 percent of Vanguard’s household and retirement plan participants abandoned equities for safer harbors, according to Vanguard, which has $5.7 trillion under management.

    “Very few people panicked,” said Vanguard senior investment strategist Jean Young. “And of those that traded, two-thirds bought equities instead of selling. Vanguard investors largely stayed the course.”

    Fidelity Investments said its most recent data covering January through early May shows only a tiny number of individual investors in retirement plans sold out of stocks.

    “Despite some significant market volatility earlier this year, most of our retirement savers stuck to their long-term savings plan,” said Fidelity spokesman Mike Shamrell."

    MY COMMENT

    Yes, a great quarter. It will be a VERY interesting summer and fall for investors. MUCH short term erratic, volatility, day by day. BUT.......I am STILL seeing the PROBABILITY that by year end ALL the averages will be positive for the year. If not.......well as a long term investor......it will STILL happen....... just......farther up the road.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AMAZING.......for those that invest and worse.........ACTUALLY TRUST......the numbers you see reported from SUPPOSEDLY reliable sources, here is a big lesson. I put this under the general MEDIA umbrella. We have a BIG problem when this sort of data is TOTAL TRASH. (my personal opinion)

    June private payrolls rose 2.37 million and there was a big positive revision for May, ADP says

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/adp-private-payrolls-june-2020.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Companies in June continued to bring workers back from their pandemic furlough as the national economy slowly came back to life.

    Private payrolls grew by 2.369 million for the month, a bit lower than the 2.5 million expectation from economists surveyed by Dow Jones, according to a report Wednesday from ADP and Moody’s Analytics.

    The total actually represented a decline from the previous month, which saw a dramatic upward revision to 3.065 million. ADP initially said May saw a loss of 2.76 million. However, the Labor Department two days later reported a gain of 2.5 million for May, a number that itself was far better than the Wall Street estimate of an 8 million loss.

    There is no information in that revision. It is simply the result of the fact that our objective here is to predict the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] number with the ADP data and to do that as accurately as possible,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “You can’t glean from that that something positive is happening in the labor market.”

    Zandi nevertheless added that “it looks like an economic recovery began in June.”

    For the month, hiring was especially strong in the pivotal leisure and hospitality industry, which took the biggest hit as measures aimed at curbing the coronavirus spread meant shutting down most bars and restaurants across the country. The sector added 961,000, by far the biggest gain in any industry.

    Small business hiring picked up in the month of June,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of
    the ADP Research Institute. “As the economy slowly continues to recover, we are seeing a significant rebound in industries that once experienced the greatest job losses.”

    In addition to the big gains in hospitality, construction — another hard-hit industry — added 394,000 and manufacturing rose by 88,000. The goods sector in total saw a net gain of 457,000 positions.

    On the services side, which grew by 1.912 million, other big gainers were trade, transportation and utilities (288,000), education and health services (283,000), and the “other services” category (215,000). Professional and businesses services added 151,000 and financial activities, which includes Wall Street jobs, was up 65,000.

    Small businesses added 937,000 to lead industries by size. Companies with 500 or more workers were up 873,000 while medium-sized firms added 559,000.

    The ADP count comes the day before the Labor Department releases its official nonfarm payrolls count for June. Economists are looking for a gain of 2.9 million after May’s jump.

    The volatile numbers point up how difficult estimating the jobs situation is amid an economy struggling to get back to normal following the coronavirus-inducted shutdown. The national unemployment rate was a 50-year low 3.5% prior to the shutdown and is now 13.3%.

    Even as jobs seem to be coming back, states are still trying to catch up with claims for unemployment insurance. That weekly number also comes out Thursday and is expected to indicate another 1.38 million new claims even as jobs on net are brought back. The discrepancy is part a backlog at the state level and possible counting errors under a special program targeted at pandemic-related claims, according to a Bloomberg News report Wednesday."

    MY COMMENT

    I find it AMAZING that these sorts of numbers SEEM to be off ONLY on the negative side of things. This is a DISASTER for ADP and ANYONE that relies on this sort of GARBAGE DATA (my personal opinion). HOW IN THE WORLD......do you report a projected LOSS of 2.76 MILLION jobs and a few weeks later you REVISE it to a GAIN of 3.065 MILLION jobs? This is INSANITY. (just my personal opinion, not literally) But.....hey....they were ONLY off by.........5.8 MILLION JOBS.

    YET......in spite of the ABSOLUTE proof of the TOTAL UNRELIABILITY of the ADP numbers........here we are in much of this article talking about how their new number for June.......2.36 MILLION.......is........drum roll please.......lower than what was projected by.......drum roll please.......a survey of economists. AND......than to have the NERVE to report that the latest number......"actually represented a decline from the previous month". RIGHT........you mean the previous month that was UNDER-REPORTED by 5.8 MILLION jobs? Do you think there is a pretty good chance that the current number is ALSO total FANTASY? (my personal opinion)

    If........this STUFF did not drive the thinking of people that see this sort of GARBAGE (my personal opinion) AND did not impact the markets....it would be HILARIOUS. Instead it is just a SAD COMMENTARY on STUPIDITY. (my personal opinion)

    Good open today.......
     
    #1431 WXYZ, Jul 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    OMG.......my little trial......"mini position".......in TESLA is NOW.....as of this moment UP by 10.61%.

    BUT.....before "I" get all CARRIED AWAY.......they will release production numbers this week and will be releasing second quarter financials soon. Either one of these reports has the potential to drive the stock price by $50 to $100 per share.....or more.......UP or DOWN. At least it is nice to have a little bit of a cushion.

    "anyone who is buying Tesla right now should probably have their posting privileges revoked." (Cult Of Dionysus about a week ago on my June 23 purchase of a very small trial position of Tesla)

    HEY....Cult Of Dionysus.......do I get my posting credentials back now?

    Sorry.....I could not resist........just having some fun. And Cult.....I am just playing the "straight man" and setting you up to reply when the stock tanks by 15-20% over the numbers in the next few weeks. NO DISRESPECT INTENDED.

    The ACTUAL lesson is........getting excited about a short term gain or a short term loss is a recipe for disaster for an actual investor. That is the sort of trick that your brain plays on you when you are a NEWBY, day-trading, stock genius. Right now there are a lot of young males getting caught up in this stuff and the day to day DRAMA of making money. I ONLY say making money because no one ever seems to recognize that they might be LOSING money till it is too late. What will happen to my "very small" Tesla position over the short term is TOTALLY RANDOM. Although I am thinking that production numbers will be a BEAT. I am also looking forward to inclusion of the stock in the SP500 RELATIVELY soon. I believe that will give the stock a boost very short term.....if for no other reason, due to the massive publicity that will come with the inclusion. After that I am hoping/expecting that the inclusion will be a STABILIZING influence on the stock and will cut down on some of the BIG daily swings in the stock.

    PLEASE......I am NOT advising ANYONE to buy TESLA at the current high level. Actually it is a good time to REMIND anyone that this thread is basically a journal.....FOR ME......of my views and opinions.......a sort of snapshot in time. I DO NOT GIVE INVESTING ADVICE. The probability is that CULT is right........short term...... and the stock will drop from the current record highs. BUT.....for me.....I DO NOT do market timing.......it does not work.
     
    #1432 WXYZ, Jul 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
    B Russ likes this.
  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    You've provided yet another example of how timing the market is usually not the right way forward. Kudos to you.

    Tesla looked pretty pumped up and yet it has climbed. Tesla is now valued over $200B.
     
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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES agree TomB16 as I often do with your thinking and posts. And.........it is not like I am a BARBARIAN STORMING THE GATES with Tesla.....my position is so SMALL that I really have very little risk, even with a BIG HIT to the down side.

    Stay safe and have a good day......TomB16.
     
  15. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    I have to say, that post u mentioned About posting privileges, has been on my mind as well...haha. Not to badger, but i do hope that timestamp serves as a reminder to stay humble, my friends....

    i just mentioned the same to a friend today, about the swings for tomorrow or monday? I expect no less than 10% swing. Either way....wouldnt be floored if 20% happened. Not anymore....not this company. There will be Lots of news to digest over a long weekend.
     
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    It seems to me, there are two distinct philosophies in play. Each philosophy believes it understands the other but, clearly, neither does.

    Much like Republicans can't comprehend how anyone could vote Democrat and Democrats are likewise nonplussed that anyone would vote Republican.

    Making it worse, both camps believe the vast majority think like them. It seems obvious to them. You can see this mentality in many posts. How many times have we seen text to the effect, "I speak for the majority when I say..."

    So, it's not surprising a market timer wouldn't understand the move of buying Tesla at $1000. Long term investors want a good deal as much as anyone but they understand time will make relatively small fluctuations far less relevant.

    Last year, I hit Tesla hard when it was below $200 per share. I keep quite a bit of cash around. I threw all of our cash at it plus worked to move quite a bit more money into our investment accounts. By the time the money showed up, Tesla was back above $200 per share but I bought more anyway. At the time, I knew it was possible for Tesla to go back down. It's easy to say "buy at the bottom" but pretty much impossible to do.

    Long term investors are painting barns, not portraits.
     
    #1436 TomB16, Jul 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
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  17. Bigmalx

    Bigmalx Member

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    Hello and thanks for your post. Is it advisable to invest through a roth ira if you are retired?
     
  18. zukodany

    zukodany Active Member

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    TSLA the stock that keeps on giving. I mean, this has been like that for almost a year now. Up and up and up. Down by a bit, up by a mile. A part of me still thinks it’s too good to be true but I’m a Tesla car owner and love it more than I love the financial gains I experienced from it, and that pretty much says a lot.
    I won’t buy more now, I will always wait for the red, but I won’t be surprised if it would hit 1500 before that happens
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well Zukodany.......I am now +11.45% on my LITTLE bit of Tesla. Production numbers will probably take all that away from me if they are negative. What REALLY counts was the BIG green today. I was not expecting much but when I got home after the close I saw that my accounts were UP big. Amazon being up $119 had a lot to do with that. Beat the Sp500 today by .4%.

    Bigmaix........you know I have never thought about Roth investing in retirement. I guess it would depend on your age, other taxable sources of income, your tax bracket, and many other factors. I did find this online but it seems a little simplistic:

    • You're never too old to fund a Roth IRA.
    • Opening a later-in-life Roth IRA means you don't have to worry about the early withdrawal penalty on earnings if you're 59½.
    • No matter when you open a Roth IRA, you have to wait five years to withdraw the earnings tax-free.
    • Roth IRAs are ideal if you want to avoid required minimum distributions and/or leave tax-free funds to your heirs
    Perhaps someone else will have some ideas. I
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NOT recommending this to anyone else. OBVIOUSLY most people reading this know that I put in place on June 23 a mini-position in Tesla. I have THREE BIG EVENTS that will impact that position short term. First the production number.....probably tomorrow. Next......the second quarter financials some time in late July. Third.....the potential for entry into the SP500.

    I knew these events were coming up and would be significant. A TRIPLE........ALL THREE being positive........should really move the stock. I expect the first one tomorrow. The movement of the stock over the past couple of days may be an EARLY indication of what we will see on the production numbers.

    HERE is another indicator. This is either a great head fake by a company leader that likes to have fun........or.....it is a preview of positive news. EVEN if an indicator of good production numbers.......will it be a case of BUY the rumor and SELL the news?

    Elon Musk congratulates Tesla employees ahead of Q2 deliveries report

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/elo...-employees-ahead-of-q2-deliveries-report.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Around 11:00 a.m. California time on Wednesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk sent out an e-mail congratulating his tens of thousands of employees.

    Just amazing how well you executed, especially in such difficult times. I am so proud to work with you!” read the email in its entirety.

    Tesla is expected to report its second quarter vehicle delivery and production numbers after the bell on Thursday, and Musk’s Wednesday email suggests that Tesla hit its goals. It follows Musk’s exhortation earlier in the week to “go all out” as “breaking even is looking super tight.”

    According to a consensus of analysts surveyed by FactSet, as of July 1, Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver 72,000 vehicles for the period. (Estimates range from 39,000 to 86,000 units expected.)

    Auto sales slumped during the second quarter after Covid-19 outbreaks led to health restrictions on households and businesses, mass layoffs and wage cuts.

    Tesla had to close its main U.S. car plant in Fremont, California, for several weeks due to health restrictions. Musk defied and sued regulators in Alameda County over their orders and returned to full operations a few days before getting official clearance to do so.

    To revitalize demand, Tesla cut prices of its electric vehicles during Q2 by as much as 6% in North America. It also made pricing changes in China, where its Shanghai plant came back online relatively quickly after a health-related shutdown.

    Throughout the last month of the quarter, Musk has sent several “Everybody” e-mails, which have promptly leaked to press, where shareholders could easily get a sense of his messaging.

    For example, in early June, Musk sent out a pair of “Everybody” e-mails, obtained by CNBC and others, in which he boasted about a glowing Model Y review in the Wall Street Journal and urged employees to stay motivated amid Model Y production and delivery problems.

    He said, in another one of the emails: “It is extremely important for us to ramp up Model Y production and minimize rectification needs.” He added, “We are doing reasonably well with S, X, and 3, but there are production and supply chain ramp challenges with Model Y, as is always the case with new products.”

    Tesla shares set new records Wednesday, giving the company a valuation of $208 billion and making it the most valued car company, ahead of Toyota.

    MY COMMENT

    Should be fun and interesting to see this unfold tomorrow. This little position is giving me some nice entertainment value for my money. With Musk and his outrageous persona, nothing would surprise me tomorrow.....even a failure to meet the numbers. As I said a while back.......the man is a VISIONARY leader. He certainly knows how to play the media and is a master of business promotion. REGARDLESS.......even though my position is SMALL........this holding is NOT a short term trade. It is a long term investment that hopefully will get two or three BIG boosts over the next few months.
     

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