Markets need to show that they can finish today......and not weenie out heading to the close. EYE OF THE TIGER.
Rising up, back on the street Did my time, took my chances Went the distance, now I'm back on my feet Just a man and his will to survive So many times it happens too fast You change your passion for glory Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past You must fight just to keep them alive It's the eye of the tiger It's the thrill of the fight Rising up to the challenge of our rival And the last known survivor Stalks his prey in the night And he's watching us all with the eye of the tiger Face to face, out in the heat Hanging tough, staying hungry They stack the odds 'til we take to the street For the kill with the skill to survive It's the eye of the tiger It's the thrill of the fight Rising up to the challenge of our rival And the last known survivor Stalks his prey in the night And he's watching us all with the eye of the tiger Rising up straight to the top Had the guts, got the glory Went the distance, now I'm not going to stop Just a man and his will to survive It's the eye of the tiger It's the thrill of the fight Rising up to the challenge of our rival And the last known survivor Stalks his prey in the night And he's watching us all with the eye of the tiger The eye of the tiger The eye of the tiger The eye of the tiger The eye of the tiger
Well done markets. A big time close today. All day long I have had 3 or 4 or 5 stocks in the red. BUT....at the close I was ALL green for a big gain today. I also got a nice beat on the SP500 by 0.23% today. I hate to say it....but....this bank turmoil has produced a couple of really BIG weeks for me in my account. I am looking toward a nice big green week this week. I think the FED will help things out tomorrow by doing a rate hike of 0.25%.
I heard on the business TV this morning that the TECH companies have now cut......309,000.....jobs here in the USA. That is a big chunk of high end jobs. As lay-offs and firings increase and pick up steam....we are now at a level that we are talking major job cuts. These are really high end and high paying jobs.
The markets today. Stocks close higher Tuesday, S&P 500 adds more than 1% as regional banks pop https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose on Tuesday as traders became optimistic on the financial sector’s outlook following Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s reassurances to safeguard against further banking crises. Wall Street marked its second day of gains ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement on interest rates Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 316.02 points, or 0.98%, to close at 32,560.60. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 jumped 1.3% to end the day at 4,002.87 — its first close above the 4,000 threshold since March 6. The Nasdaq Composite added 1.58% to close at 11,860.11 respectively. Regional banks surged Tuesday, led by First Republic. The beaten-down bank jumped almost 30%, a day after losing 47%. The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) gained about 6%. Regionals got a boost after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday morning that the government is ready to provide further guarantees of deposits if the banking crisis worsens. Wall Street is looking toward the Federal Reserve’s announcement on its monetary policy tightening path on Wednesday afternoon. Investors are now expecting a slower pace of tightening from the Federal Reserve in light of the banking crisis. Traders currently are pricing in a 83% chance of a quarter-point rate hike when the Fed wraps its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The probability of a pause is at 16.6%. “If [the Fed] were to pause their rate hikes, that would be the same as acknowledging that they know something that maybe the markets don’t know. I think that would be devastating idea for them,” said Johan Grahn, head of ETF strategy at Allianz Investment Management. “It was never really an argument for them to go to back down from from the 25 [basis points].” He added that the market volatility after the Silicon Valley Bank failure and Credit Suisse meltdown was a “very natural knee-jerk reaction for investors to go towards safety immediately.” “It seems like the evaluation process has settled down a little bit, so we can move on and say that these were relatively isolated incidents. Now, of course, this is just the first crack,” Grahn said. “We’re in this period of heightened volatility, and I think it’s easy to forget just how much volatility we have both on the equity side and the fixed income side.” Apple and Microsoft now account for 13% of the S&P 500 The combined weight of the biggest two stocks in the S&P 500 is at its highest level since at least 1990, according to Strategas Research. Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas, said in a note to clients on Tuesday that Apple and Microsoft now account for more than 13% of the leading market index by themselves. Both stocks have outperformed so far this year, rising 22% and 13%, respectively. “Tech’s recent outperformance (defensive haven?) has resulted in the combined S&P 500 weight of AAPL (7.1%) + MSFT (6.1%) rising to new 30+ year highs. Concentration risk of the top 5 to 10 constituents was a hot topic during the post-covid market surge, but it’s seemingly transitioned to just the top two heavyweights now,” Sohn said." MY COMMENT Happy to see the FED raise rates by 0.25% tomorrow. We will than be within ONLY 1 or 2 rate hikes of the end. Even nicer is the fact that the FED now has to be careful how they TRASH the markets and the economy. All the fear of banks is causing them to have to moderate their comments. So nice. I am sure the Psychological overlay from the banks will weigh on investors for a while....some people....for a long time. BUT.....as I have been saying....it is basically over now. Everything has been backstopped.
Good old NIKE. Nike beats revenue estimates on strong demand for sneakers https://www.reuters.com/business/re...-estimates-strong-demand-sneakers-2023-03-21/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "March 21 (Reuters) - Nike Inc (NKE.N) beat analysts' estimates for third-quarter revenue on Tuesday, helped by strong demand for its sneakers such as Jordan Retro in North America and Europe. The world's largest sportswear maker's shares rose about 5% in extended trading. Nike has benefited from higher sales of its franchises such as Jordan and LeBron as consumers snap up newer launches helping grow its market share, while rival Adidas (ADSGn.DE) struggles with its split with Kanye West and the German company is expected to post its first annual loss in three decades this year. Nike has also seen a boost to sales from consumers especially at the higher end of the income rung who have shrugged off a hit from stubbornly high inflation, helping the company maintain a pandemic-induced boom in demand for athletic wear. The company reported a 27% jump in sales in its largest market, North America, while it saw a 17% rise in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region. Nike's revenue rose to $12.39 billion in the third quarter from $10.87 billion a year earlier. Analysts had expected $11.47 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv." MY COMMENT This is a significant earnings BEAT. A fitting end.....or is it the beginning?.......to earnings season. Earnings were supposed to be dismal.....but.....as usual....all the experts were WRONG. We will soon see the next earnings quarter start once we get to the end of the first quarter in about a week. I am already seeing articles about how bad they are going to be. I would be worried if I was not seeing these sorts of articles.....since they are now the norm. I wonder if they.......the articles...... are even being generated by humans?
Here is more on NIKE. Nike stock rises after third quarter beats Wall Street expectations https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/21/nike-nke-q3-earnings-2023.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Nike beat Wall Street’s expectations for its fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue. The retailer has been contending with a glut of inventory and soft sales in China as the region recovers from the Covid pandemic. Investors have been watching to see if Nike’s gross margins improve from its direct-to-consumer channels. Nike beat Wall Street’s expectations for its fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue, though its margins have continued to shrink as investors watch it for its direct-to-consumer strategies to pay off. The company’s stock was up about 3.5% in after-hours trading Tuesday. Here’s how the sneaker giant did in its third fiscal quarter of 2023 compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv: Earnings per share: 79 cents vs. 55 cents expected Revenue: $12.39 billion vs. $11.47 billion expected The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 28 was $1.2 billion, or 79 cents per share, compared with $1.4 billion, or 87 cents per share, a year earlier. Sales rose to $12.39 billion, up 14% from $10.87 billion a year earlier. Nike, like other retailers, has been in the process of offloading a glut of inventory brought on by supply chain disruptions and shifting consumer demands that’s been weighing on its margins. While Nike CEO John Donahoe told investors last quarter he believes the company is past its inventory peak, gross margins were expected to take a hit during the holiday quarter as the company continued liquidation efforts and promotions. For the last several years, Nike has been working to build out its direct to consumer sales and has invested heavily in the channel by building out experiential stores, developing its loyalty program and growing its e-commerce sales. Along the way, it cut ties with a host of wholesalers but ended up relying on those partnerships during the last quarter to offload its bloated inventory. On Monday, Foot Locker CEO Mary Dillon touted a “renewed” and revitalized relationship with Nike, its biggest brand partner. Nike, which has consistently beat Wall Street’s top and bottom line expectations over the last year, has been looking to see a rebound in sales in China, its third biggest market by revenue, as the region recovers from the Covid pandemic. Sales in China have been soft as consumers contended with sweeping lockdowns and rising infections but during the quarter, the country rescinded its zero Covid policy. A study of consumers in China and North America conducted by Citi found the region is recovering but consumers aren’t back to pre-pandemic shopping levels just yet.' MY COMMENT Kicking ass in Oregon. The "swoosh" continues to just roll along as usual.
I will not waste much time on the markets today.....since it is FED DAY. The markets will be irrelevant until this afternoon when the FED makes their.......predicted......rate hike. I still say it will be 0.25%. If it is 0.00% it will be a SHOCKER.
If you are interested in the extremely short term....pre-FED.....markets, here you go. Stock market news today: Stocks waver with all eyes on Fed meeting https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-march-22-2023-123738540.html
I have been experiencing a nice......bank failure rally....for the past couple of weeks. This is on top of the nice year we have been seeing this year and the generally UP market since July of 2022. As a result as of a few minutes ago I am now......+13.25%.....year to date for 2023. If the FED cooperates I can see a continuation of this little rally. We could be in a little sweet spot for a few weeks to come. It is nice to see my account UP to levels that I have not seen for a long time now. I did not look at the exact time span but I am definitely at an account HIGH of the past 9 months....perhaps more. For comparison the SP500 is at +4.44% year to date as of a minute ago. Of course this is all short term.....and can change very quickly. It will not be set in stone till the year is done and that is a long time from now. I am sure there will be plenty of UP and DOWN over the rest of the year for the markets......and....my account.
LOL.....the markets fell apart in the last 25 minutes of the day. I was in the red today at a medium level in my ten stocks. I had a single stock up at the close....NVDA. I was green most of the day.....but that does not count. the best I have to offer is a beat on the SP500 by 0.22%.
I have not looked at anything since this morning....but I did not have to. I was driving back from San Antonio in the afternoon and heard it all happen on business radio. The markets basically had a big TEMPER TANTRUM...because the FED did not pause and is NOT going to start to cut rates in the summer or in the fall. It is very instructive to listen to all the Wall Street guests on the radio shows. The vast majority are totally......out of touch. They are living in their own little reality....but I guess that is ok....these days everyone gets to create and live in their own personal reality. HERE.....is reality. The FED is going to do one or two more rate hikes.....probably at 0.25%. The FED is NOT going to pause till those hikes are over. The FED is NOT going to start cutting rate any time this year. I am sure I have heard this from the FED about a hundred times over the past six months.......but....I guess I am delusional since most of the BIG EXPERTS seem to.......NOT...... have the same view. Speaking of the FED......they are pretty much screwed with their 2% inflation target. They will be lucky to get down to 5%. They are now stimulating the economy themselves with their........"not" quantitative easing.....by giving the banks easy money. They absolutely refuse to be critical of government spending and stimulus.
As to the banks.......yes it is all contained....but we will probably see another few banks go under. Since I dont invest in bank stocks or anything related.....and....since there is little to no risk to the economy from their failure......and....since my BIG CAP companies are very much NOT dependent on the banks.....I am expecting to continue to do well. This is one of those times when psychology is very apparent. You have to love human behavior.
As usual......NIKE.....was down most of the day due to their BIG EARNINGS BEAT. No doubt the markets focused on their lingering demand issues in China and their extremely minor inventory issues going forward. It is just comical to watch. We are so MACRO FOCUSED on the short term and the Wall Street group think it is just a thing of beauty to watch.
I am not even going to bother posting it but I now see that.......my hero......YELLEN is now saying there will NOT be blanket coverage for all bank deposits. Of course not......these sorts of BAILOUTS only apply to the ELITES and politically powerful. The little people are just on their own. Of course....it is basically the ELITES and politically powerful.....that are DUMB enough to have money exposed in a bank over the $250,000 limit anyway. Any "regular person" would probably be smart enough to figure out how to protect their funds. So......I guess it is all good.
I know I've mentioned this more than a handufl times over the years W, but seriously some mad props goes out to you from me, and I'm sure from many other lurkers/posters of this thread. I have to say it again, but I am often in sheer awe at how consistent you have been at posting so many updates in here on a daily basis. Like, I feel like you are truly one of a kind, because I've legit never found someone quite like you in my near 20 years at this community that dates back to a former version of this site (HSM - Hotstockmarket.com - circa 2004-2015) with the time and dedication that you put into this thread, and the length of time that you have been doing this. It's really pretty crazy amazing to me. And I say this from the absolute bottom of my heart and being as genuine as one can be on a text message post like this one here. I really don't know how you do it W. But, you certainly do it! I'll admit, I've been in this gig since dating back to 2005-06. But, even I have been starting to feel a little market exhaustion. And, I don't even have any skin in the game anymore! Lol. Also, when I say "market exhaustion" I'm mostly just referring to my general lack of interest in the markets nowadays which I'll admit has been waning for the past several years now. But, moreso now than ever before. Case in point - I used to be like you back during the height of the 2010s where I'd monitor the markets closely every single day and post my thoughts daily, the whole 9 yards. Nowadays? I just can't care any less lol. IDK, maybe I'm just in the minority on that sentiment. And I can't even put a finger on it tbh. If I have to guess, I would say maybe it's just the market not having the same pizazz for me as it did back during the 2010s. I've transitioned over to the long term game too now. So it's just basically set it and forget for me nowadays. Just not much interest overall to monitor things on a daily basis anymore. Not sure if we have any others in here that can relate? It's weird. But, anyway, I still do have the utmost respect and admiration for you W for how consistent you have been with this thread from the very outset. I mean, like literally I've never seen anyone as consistent as you. And I've been in this for nearing 20 years. My hat goes off to you. Keep up the good work. Without you and this thread, I think Stockaholics would have maybe shuttered down by now. You are literally the CORNERSTONE of this board now. Just saying it like I see it. Take care, -bb.
Thank you for the very kind words. BUT.......I really dont put that much time in on here. I would be doing my daily reading even if I was not posting on here......and.....I am a very fast reader. I have been posting about LONG TERM INVESTING since about 1995......I am a one trick pony. I tend to stick to one site and for the past 4+ years Stockaholics has been my one site. This board is REALLY A GOOD ONE......as are all the people on here. I do know how you feel......about following the markets and "exhaustion"......but.....in anything I have done in life I tend to be a FANATIC. That is a good thing and a bad thing. It DROVE me to achieve in sports, school, business, investing, music, etc, etc......and.....at the same time having that drive to achieve makes you.....as I said....a fanatic. I am lucky that I make extremely quick decisions and am very decisive in real life....that helps with posting QUICKLY on here. I am also a HUGE fan and user of the POWER of visualization and focus. Also keep in mind that.....ALL....that I post on here is UNPLANNED and is simply STREAM OF CONSCIOUSNESS.......so it is not like I spend a lot of time thinking about what to post or planing my day of posting. It just happens. I really like it when new investors are able to learn and grow from this thread. I also really appreciate all the posters that have been on here over my time with their comments, posts, and knowledge. Thank you B.B. for the beautiful words.....they are very appreciated.
I can only agree with bigbear on this. I am following this thread since 2021, and must admit that it has become one of my "go to" sites, to check the current market state. Before I go to any financial news, I first check what W has to say The main thing that I like in your posts W, is your common sense, not only about the markets but also on other things in life. I am 31 year old, curently living with my family in Scotland, UK. Born in Croatia. I started learning about markets, investing and trading in 2020. I am planning to open an ISA account soon (similar to Roth IRA, just more flexible) and start investing in stocks.
WOW.....welcome as a poster Strathmore.....Evan though you have been reading and lurking for some time now. It is cool to see someone on here that is living in Scotland. There are a number of folks on here that are in Europe or the EU. (I believe that rg7803 is in the EU.....Spain? or Portugal?) Please feel free to continue to post as you wish on any topic......it would be nice to have some viewpoint from outside the USA.
