The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well said Smokie.

    I believe that the absolute most important factor for long term investors is.....HAVE A PLAN. You can not think you are a long term investor when at the same time you are just WINGING IT.

    I believe long term planing and long term thinking has been the key for me in achieving my goals. You need two things:

    1. Rational and reasonable goals.

    2. A rational and reasonable plan to achieve those goals.

    A goal....without a plan.....is just wishful thinking.
     
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have to take a break from posting right now......I have some really important "stuff" that I have to go do right now.

    VACUUM THE HOUSE.

    The glorious and glamorous day to day life of a long term investor.
     
  4. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    This is a great and true line.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Markets are STILL hanging in there nicely today. It has been a while since I looked at my account about an hour ago....but....at that time I had 9 of 10 stocks UP for the day. My lone down stock....COST.

    Looks like the banking crisis is just about over. I thought it would last about 2 weeks......looks like it will end up lasting about 3 weeks. I am calling the end of this as being....when the financial media moves on to other topics like interest rates, the FED, and earnings.....the usual. The only way I see this as a continuing story is if some major NEW event happens that prolongs the story.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A clean sweep for my ten stocks today as the positive momentum that has been hampered by the bank panic and fear gave way to big market gains today.

    I was UP nicely today with a strong gain. I also got in a good beat on the SP500 today by 0.27% on a day when the SP500 was also Up nicely.

    This shows the strength of the markets and the continued....stealth....bull market when the extraordinary bank situation is not layered on top of things.

    I had to laugh yesterday. I saw an article by one of the "professionals" talking about how he now things we are at the start of a BULL MARKET.

    Yeah right......you are about......NINE MONTHS late to the party. It was obvious in hindsight....many months ago.... that the bull market started about the end of June of 2022. As I did in this thread....a simple analysis of the SP500...gains by week, month, 3 months and 6 months since the end of June of 2022....showed the change in direction to the positive through year end 2022. This has continued into 2023. BUT....better late than never.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The primary thing I try to do as a long term investor is keep things as SIMPLE as possible. I dont go looking for new investing techniques, or new data to analyze, or new fads to follow. I simply do the same thing that I have been doing for over 50 years of investing......simple ICONIC COMPANY BIG CAP GROWTH investing.

    I dont need to do any fancy charts or analysis, I can find those anytime I wish on the internet. The more complex the investing system that someone is using the more I AVOID their opinions. Complexity in investing is simply at best busy work and at worst a cover for not really knowing anything.

    Why Investment Complexity Is Not Your Friend
    When it comes to investing, keep it simple instead.

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1147033/why-investment-complexity-is-not-your-friend

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content)

    "Mutual funds were originally meant to make life simple. At a time when it was difficult or impossible for individual investors to assemble a diversified portfolio without paying steep trading commissions, funds such as MFS Massachusetts Investors Trust MITTX, Vanguard Wellington VWELX, and Pioneer Fund PIODX started a brand-new industry in the 1920s, which then became more regulated and transparent with the Investment Company Act of 1940.

    Since then, the fund industry has grown into a $20 trillion-plus colossus, with more than 10,000 mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (not including multiple share classes) available for investors in the United States. Such abundance is an embarrassment of riches for the everyday investor, but doesn’t always lead to better results. In this article, I’ll delve into the perils of complexity and suggest a few ways to simplify things instead.

    Complexity Abounds

    The fund industry now includes a dazzling variety of options, from active to passive, long to short, inverse to leveraged, and various combinations thereof spanning nearly every conceivable asset class, and then some. Morningstar’s U.S. fund database now includes 28,000 share classes from more than 800 different fund companies and 128 categories.

    Recent fund launches have become increasingly esoteric and niche-oriented: During the past three years, for example, fund companies rolled out at least 139 funds focusing on options trading, 53 leveraged equity, 39 digital assets (aka cryptocurrency), 26 trading—inverse equity, 274 sector, and 205 thematic funds.

    Not only can this range of options be overwhelming, but it often leads to worse investor outcomes. As I wrote about a few weeks ago, Morningstar recently introduced a new Role in Portfolio framework designed to help beginning investors simplify the investment process and avoid big portfolio mistakes. One key dimension of this framework focuses on maximum position size—that is, the percentage of assets that we recommend devoting to a given type of fund within a portfolio. We divide the fund coverage into four main groupings: stand-alone (which can occupy as much as 80% to 100% of a portfolio), core (40% to 80%), building block (15% to 40%), and limited (less than 15%).

    [​IMG]

    We found that nearly half of all mutual funds and ETFs currently available land in the limited role. In other words, many of the funds that investors encounter should only play a small role in their portfolios—if any role at all. Stand-alone funds—which are more suitable for most or all of an investor’s portfolio because of their built-in asset class diversification—only account for about 14% of available offerings. Core holdings, meanwhile, make up less than one fourth of the fund coverage.

    Why Complexity Doesn’t Help Investors

    This topsy-turvy state of affairs hasn’t led to better results for investors. In fact, there’s ample evidence that fund companies are prone to rolling out highly specialized offerings at exactly the wrong time: after a given sector has already attracted investor interest, leading to higher valuations and risk levels. Cryptocurrency is a case in point. Interest in the area exploded in the wake of the area’s tenfold runup from 2019 through 2021. The number of fund offerings focusing on digital assets went from about two to about 30 by the end of 2021. That was just in time for the sharp correction in 2022, when the CMBI Bitcoin Index lost close to two thirds of its value.

    Similarly, nearly 70 new technology funds came out between 2019 and 2021, attracting more inflows than any other sector-fund category. After posting cumulative returns of about 142% over that three-year period, funds in the technology category dropped about 38%, on average, during the 2022 bear market.

    This pattern has led to a persistent gap between the returns investors actually experience (also known as investor returns or asset-weighted returns) and reported total returns. This gap has averaged about 1.7 percentage points across all fund categories over the 10-year period ending in 2021.

    On a more practical note, complexity increases the number of details for investors to keep track of. More accounts mean more passwords to remember, more account statements to gather up at tax time, more time spent on rebalancing, and more accounts to tally up for required minimum distributions. Life is complicated enough without adding scores of portfolio holdings to the mix.

    Cutting Through the Gordian Knot of Investment Complexity

    There are a few ways to avoid investment complexity. One of the most helpful tactics is to tune out the day-to-day noise of economic and market news. Particularly during volatile and uncertain times, there’s almost always something worrisome or panic-inducing happening, but making drastic portfolio moves in response is usually a bad idea. On a related note, don’t be afraid to put things on your “too hard” pile. Complicated investment products or strategies that you don’t understand usually won’t lead to better results. And if something sounds too good to be true (a higher-than-average yield, triple-digit returns, a manager who promises to perform well no matter what the market environment), it’s usually a red flag.

    Instead, be a ruthless editor of your investment life. There are only a handful of asset classes that most investors need, as shown in the table below. Everything else is optional.

    [​IMG]

    For tax-deferred accounts, you can simplify things even more by investing in a target-date fund. These funds offer built-in asset class diversification and automatically adjust their asset mix to become more conservative over time.

    Robo-advisors can also be a good option for investors who don’t want to manage their own portfolios. These programs typically start by asking a series of questions to assess an individual’s time horizon and risk tolerance, and then match them up with a suitable portfolio, typically made up of low-cost ETFs.

    Ultimately, the most important thing is to focus as intensely as possible on what matters most. An investor who gets a handful of key decisions right—keeping expenses low, saving early and often, and matching her personal time horizon with the right types of funds—will likely fare better than those who get tripped up by complexity."

    MY COMMENT

    Over my lifetime of investing I have managed through a combination of skill and luck to be well ahead of the SP500. SO.....why would I change or do anything differently. I simply do the same thing I have done over my entire investing life....over, and over, and over.

     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Lets hope that today....HUMP DAY.....is the day this weeks that the markets get over the banking hump and from here finish the week with two more good positive days. There really is nothing standing in the way of that at this moment.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is how we ended the day today.

    Stocks rally, crypto surges as first quarter nears end:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-march-29-133212119.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks rallied on Wednesday as investors eyed the end of an eventful month and first quarter of the year marked by resiliency in the face of a bank crisis and looming questions about the global economy.

    At the closing bell, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was higher by 1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led gains, rising 1.8%
    .

    With the first quarter set to wrap up Friday, the Nasdaq is sitting on gains north of 13%, the S&P 500 is up more than 4.5% so far this year, and the Dow is lagging, falling 1.3% in 2023.

    This relative performance is a reversal from what was seen last year, when the Nasdaq fell nearly 30%, the S&P 500 lost over 18%, and the Dow fell a more modest 9%.

    The price of crude oil was volatile on Wednesday, trading below $73 after having changed hands north of $74 earlier in morning trade. The 10-year yield stood near 3.55%.

    Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was also notably higher, rising more than 5% to trade north of $28,000.

    So far this year, bitcoin has gained more than 70%.

    Wednesday's move higher in the major averages came amid a somewhat slower calendar for corporate and economic news, with earnings last night from Micron Technology (MU) and Lululemon (LULU) serving as the key highlights during the trading session.

    Micron shares were up more than 7% on Wednesday after the chip giant last night suggested the battered chip business could be turning a corner, with CEO Sanjay Mehrotra telling investors "we are close to a transition to sequential revenue growth in our quarterly results."

    Micron reported revenues for its fiscal second quarter on Tuesday that were down about 10% from the prior quarter and more than 50% lower than the same period last year.

    Mehrotra also called out the potential positive impacts that recent investor enthusiasm around AI advances could have on the industry, telling investors: "Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) provide an exciting prelude to the transformational capabilities of large language models, or LLMs, such as ChatGPT, which require significant amounts of memory and storage to operate. We are only in the very early stages of the widespread deployment of these AI technologies and potential exponential growth in their commercial use cases."

    Lululemon shares, meanwhile, were up more than 12% on Wednesday after reporting top and bottom line results that beat estimates, with revenue rising 30% in the fourth quarter as comparable store sales rose 27%.

    On the economic data side, data on pending home sales from the National Association of Realtors showed homes under contract rose for the third-straight month in February."

    MY COMMENT

    You will note that this little summary of the day is just about EXACTLY how we started the day. NOTHING happened today in terms of critical news for investors. That is a good thing......no news is good news.

    I dont see anything that is going to happen tomorrow or Friday that will be any different. That is also a good OMEN for the last couple of the days of the quarter and the markets.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I went on a little posting streak this morning about AI and tech and the future of investing and the markets. I was surprised to see the TV people on the business channels talking about the same thing from an hour to a few hours later. Here is a little relevant article on this "stuff" in terms of one of my stocks....MSFT.

    Microsoft is dominating the AI wars…for now

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-is-dominating-the-ai-warsfor-now-200037880.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "When it comes to generative AI, Microsoft (MSFT) is dominating the conversation. After pouring billions into ChatGPT developer OpenAI, the tech giant is building out a small AI empire, adding the technology to everything from its Dynamics 365 to Office 365, and, of course, Bing. Now Microsoft is bringing generative AI to its cybersecurity offerings via its Microsoft Security Copilot.

    It's all part of Microsoft’s strategy to ensure that when it comes to the latest generation of AI, it’s the company that you think of first. And it’s working.

    “They are clearly out in front of everybody else,” Frank Dickson, group VP of security and trust at International Data Corporation, told Yahoo Finance.

    But a head start doesn’t mean that Microsoft will stay in the lead forever. Google parent Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) is making big bets of its own, while Facebook parent Meta (META) is building a team of engineers to focus on the generative AI space.

    “This is a baseball game,” Dickson said. “Microsoft is throwing the first pitch right now. The other team hasn't shown up for the game. And so we don't know when they're gonna show up for the game, and we don't know what they're going to bring to that game.”

    The competition is coming

    Microsoft’s big AI moves came at just the right time for the tech giant. It debuted its OpenAI-powered Bing search engine and Edge web browser in February as ChatGPT’s popularity exploded into the mainstream.

    It kept riding that wave earlier this month when it announced that Bing hit a total of 100 million daily active users and that the software is running on OpenAI’s latest GPT-4 model.

    By contrast, Google flubbed the debut of its competing generative AI chatbot Bard, with even employees calling the announcement “botched,” according to CNBC.

    But Google has been packing different types of AI into nearly all of its products for years. And the fact that it debuted Bard a day before Bing and its AI assistant for Workspaces two days before Microsoft’s Office 365 Copilot, proves that it’s not willing to take Microsoft’s incursion into the AI space lying down.

    Even more troublesome for Microsoft, though, is the fact that the attention it’s brought to generative AI is helping to spawn a host of other potential rivals.

    “In driving so much excitement and attention around generative AI, you know, [Microsoft has] obviously driven a lot of new prospects and customers to themselves,
    ” Forrester Analyst Rowan Curran told Yahoo Finance.

    “But they've also really excited the market and driven a huge acceleration in the investment and development of generative AI capabilities across a whole host of other companies,” he said.

    Microsoft can still take advantage of its lead

    While the competition is clearly coming for Microsoft, the company can still make use of its current lead to grab precious market share from its biggest rivals.

    The last few months have made clear that Microsoft has been feverishly working behind the scenes, as has OpenAI, of course, at pushing the envelope on what is possible as it relates to generative AI and integrating it pervasively across their product portfolio,” Mizuho Analyst Gregg Moskowitz told Yahoo Finance.

    Microsoft is already the second largest cloud provider behind industry leader Amazon (AMZN) and ahead of third place contender Google, and adding its generative AI capabilities could make it all the more attractive to potential customers. That’s especially important as cloud revenue growth slows from its pandemic highs.

    In Q2 2023, Microsoft’s Azure platform revenue grew 26% year-over-year, down from 46% growth in Q2 2022. Rolling generative AI into the mix, though, could help buoy the business.

    “This is just the first step on the AI front as we expect much more cloud integration with Azure during the course of 2023 as its AI arms race takes place among Big Tech,” Wedbush Managing Director Dan Ives told Yahoo Finance.

    To stay on top, Microsoft will have to continue to steal attention away from its rivals while building out its AI capabilities across its offerings. If it doesn’t, Google will be happy to take its place."

    MY COMMENT

    I am happy to see this information as a MSFT shareholder. I am also happy to be a GOOGL shareholder. I will benefit from both of these GIANT companies moving forward in their dominance.

    As to META....being any sort of threat.......NO I dont see it at all. META is at this point a FAILING company mostly due to their stock structure and rubber stamp board keeping the reigns of the company in the incompetent leadership hands of ZUCK. Fine with me since I am not a fan of thsi one trick pony company anyway. At this point they are the go-to social media company for old people. BUMMER.

    I am happy to see MSFT and GOOGL leading the pack at the start of this race.......but.....there is a very long way to go. The good thing is that both companies.....in addition to their own engineering..... have massive resources to buy out young companies that might be some sort of threat in this area.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Actually the SP500 is doing better than I thought this week. My view of the markets is skewed by the fact that for me the markets have been down two days so far this week.

    The SP500 on the other hand is now UP for Monday and today this week and right now is siting on a three day gain of +1.43%.

    We need to finish up this week in style and string together a few weeks of good returns to really ramp up the POSITIVE MOMENTUM. Once we get a strong few weeks in a row......the inevitable RUSH into the markets will start up in force.

    MAY THE FORCE BE WITH US .....tomorrow and Friday to close the week on a HIGH note.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I put up a post on this topic a day or two ago. If this really is being considered and especially if it actually happens than Amazon and their CEO are crazy.

    Amazon buying AMC 'doesn't make sense': Analyst

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-buying-amc-doesnt-make-sense-analyst-211117387.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR hat I consider important content)

    "AMC (AMC) stock closed Wednesday's trading session down nearly 3% after surging on Tuesday following a report from The Intersect which claimed tech giant Amazon (AMZN) is interested in acquiring the embattled theater chain.

    The report, which cited "multiple senior sources familiar with the discussions," said Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is exploring plans to purchase AMC in order to use its 600+ theaters to promote Amazon Prime movies and cross-sell services like grocery delivery. AMC CEO Adam Aron declined to comment to Yahoo Finance.

    However, not everyone is convinced of a deal like this coming to pass, with Wedbush analysts Alicia Reese and Michael Pachter writing in a new note: "Amazon would be better off buying a piece of Cineworld," which filed for bankruptcy in September 2022.

    "Amazon could buy 1,000 screens for $200,000 a screen, or $200 million. Why would Amazon instead choose to buy 10,000 screens for $8 billion?" the analysts wrote, referencing AMC's heavy debt load of $4.6 billion, in addition to the stock's inflated valuation.

    "The bottom line is that Amazon has no interest in being in the theatrical exhibition space to make money," the note added.

    "It just makes no sense whatsoever that someone would buy AMC and take over their debt instead of buying Cineworld out of bankruptcy," Pachter told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday.

    "There's no point in Amazon buying a company that has debt," he continued. "This is an idiotic concept. I would downgrade Amazon if they did something as stupid as buying AMC. That [would] show [Amazon CEO] Andy Jassy has no idea what he's doing."

    Ultimately, Pachter said he doesn't see Amazon acquiring Cineworld, either, explaining the move would not make strategic sense for the company.

    "The biggest acquisition [Amazon] ever made was Whole Foods. That was a $4 to $5 billion revenue company and Amazon strategically needed to get into home grocery delivery. This doesn't make sense," he said.

    Tuesday's report also comes at a time when tech giants have been heavily investing in entertainment, despite cutting costs in other areas.

    Last week, Bloomberg reported Apple plans to spend $1 billion a year to produce movies that will be released in theaters. Similarly, Amazon formulated plans to invest $1 billion to produce 12-15 movies a year exclusively for theaters, Bloomberg reported in November. Amazon closed its $8.5 billion deal to acquire MGM early last year.

    Theaters, still reeling from the pandemic, have yet to see ticket sales bounce back to pre-pandemic levels — despite blockbuster showings from films like "Avatar: The Way of Water," "Creed III," and "John Wick: Chapter 3."

    "Across the top 5 studios, 2022 global box office receipts were down 43% vs. the pre-pandemic baseline. While we are expecting 8% growth in 2023, this would still place the industry down 39% vs. pre-pandemic levels," Evercore ISI analyst Vijay Jayant wrote in a note published on Sunday.

    But could AMC eventually sell to someone? Pachter isn't so sure.

    "AMC's a seller at some price, but who is the buyer?" he questioned.

    "The fact is it's a declining business, so there's not really that much opportunity for a financial buyer.""

    MY COMMENT

    If this is true......a very big "if".......it is IDIOCY.

    Why in the world would Amazon want to get into the brick and mortar movie chain business. The theaters are reeling from the Hollywood "woke stuff". They have lost massive numbers of customers as a result.

    I say the above NOT from a political view but from a REALITY and BUSINESS view as to.....one of the primary reasons...... why the movie theaters have seen their customer base PLUMMET.

    I dont care what anyone thinks or does.......ultra liberal, ultra conservative,.......whatever..... that is their right......in fact I am a LIBERTARIAN......but as a business person it is IDIOCY to piss off half your potential audience. I was talking to our drummer on this topic recently regarding music. We were both agreeing that there are three things you NEVER mention from the stage at a show.......POLITICS, RELIGION, and comments that might piss off half your audience like........for example......a comment that is nasty or negative toward males, females, or some other group.

    In addition with all the streaming services offering all sorts of content......we have another nail in the coffin of the movie theater business.

    If this actually happens......it will be one of the most STUPID management decisions that I have seen in a very long time.
     
    #14892 WXYZ, Mar 29, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2023
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    On the above topic it is OBVIOUS that there is a HUGE amount of negative sentiment on the part of AMAZON shareholders. I cant see more of this article without being a subscriber BUT it is obvious where it is headed.

    No, Amazon Shouldn’t Buy AMC—or Any Other Movie Theater Chain

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-buy-amc-cineworld-stock-price-17cf3d2a

    "AMC AMC –2.91% stock rallied on Tuesday amid rumors that Amazon AMZN +3.10% Amazon may bid for the movie theater chain, and was set for more gains Wednesday. Exuberance—this is a “meme stock,” after all—is understandable, but investors should see what Amazon shares are doing.

    That is to say: very little. Amazon (ticker: AMZN) stock shed 0.8% on Tuesday, underperforming the S&P 500 SPX +1.42% though the shares are bouncing back Wednesday. A report from The Intersect that Amazon was exploring an acquisition of AMC Entertainment (AMC) might have sent investors in the distressed movie theater chain into a frenzy, but the tech giant’s shareholders didn’t seem to share the sentiment."


    etc, etc, etc.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND.....having posted earlier today about the power of Social Media and the internet to spread BS to investors. I note that when I look for more info on the Amazon topic above......I see this same RUMOR in various articles going back to.....2020, 2021, 2022 and now 2023.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I expect that this is the reason for the markets opening in the green today. ALTHOUGH.....to me this open today seems to lack a bit of conviction. So it will be interesting to see if it can hold to the close.

    Jobless claims edge up to 198,000, higher than expected

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/jobless-claims-edge-up-to-198000-higher-than-expected-.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Jobless claims for the week ended March 25 totaled 198,000, up 7,000 from the previous period and a bit higher than the 195,000 estimate.
    • Continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged up 4,000 to 1.689 million.
    • The final GDP reading for the fourth quarter of 2022 showed the economy grew at a 2.6% annualized rate in the fourth quarter.


    Initial filings for unemployment insurance ticked higher last week but remained generally low in a tight labor market.

    Jobless claims for the week ended March 25 totaled 198,000, up 7,000 from the previous period and a bit higher than the 195,000 estimate, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

    Though the number was slightly higher than expectations, the total indicates that companies are slow to lay off workers despite expectations that the unemployment rate will rise through the year.

    Continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged up 4,000 to 1.689 million. That was below the FactSet estimate for 1.6935 million.

    The four-week moving average of weekly claims, which smoothes volatility in the numbers, edged up to 198,250, but has been below 200,000 since mid-January.

    The relatively benign claims numbers come despite aggressive Federal Reserve efforts to slow down inflation. In large part, the central bank is targeting a labor market beset by a sharp supply-demand imbalance in which there are nearly two open jobs for every available worker.

    According to estimates last week, central bankers expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% this year, from its current 3.6% level. Doing so would require the loss of more than 540,000 jobs, according to an Atlanta Fed calculator.

    Although hiring in the U.S. economy remains strong, there appears to be the potential for more slack in hiring trends set for the spring and summer months,” said Stuart Hoffman, senior economic advisor at PNC. “This is not to say that economic conditions are set to collapse entirely. Rather, any newly laid-off workers are not as likely to be so quickly rehired as businesses assess their plans to weather what we expect will be a mild recession in the second half of this year.”

    A separate economic report Thursday showed that growth was a bit less strong to close 2022 than previously thought.

    The final Commerce Department reading for gross domestic product showed the economy grew at a 2.6% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, slightly below the previous estimate of 2.7%. That change came primarily due to downward revisions in consumer spending and exports, the department said.

    Growth likely accelerated for the first three months of 2023, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker. That gauge shows GDP rising at a 3.2% pace.

    Markets reacted little to the fresh batch of data, with futures pointing to a higher open on Wall Street."

    MY COMMENT

    I have been saying for a long time that I see NO evidence of an impending recession. The forth quarter GDP of +2.6% and the estimated first quarter of 2023 GDP of +3.2 is the latest indicator that there is NO recession happening. This might of course change in the future....but....based on this data and what I see happening in the economy I STILL dont see any evidence that there is going to be a recession this year.

    Too bad for the FED.......their rate increases are simply being generally ignored. They have been WISHING for a recession and attempting to constantly TRASH the stock markets to try to achieve their goals. They are going to be disappointed.

    The jobless claims data is helping a little today.....as we transition back to the FED and rates and away from banking. On the other hand the Ten Year Yield is UP today as it has been recently.
     
    #14895 WXYZ, Mar 30, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2023
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AMAZINGLY....well really not since I would say it is totally in line with reality.....the bank crisis seems to have disappeared overnight......literally.

    On the financial sites that I scan......today is the first day that there is little to no content talking about banks and fear mongering the situation with scary headlines. So.....I am calling it.....the little banking crisis is over and done. The media has moved on and they are the ones that set the agenda. One thing is clear......the media is a very accurate indicator of when something is no longer a good "click generator" as a topic.

    In addition I see the financial media now transitioning back to the FED and rates in their coverage of the markets. We will soon be back to the same old, normal, topics that have dominated for the past year. AND....sooner or later......hopefully much sooner....no one will care about the FED or their failed attempt to deal with inflation. At that point we will simply see inflation slowly resolve as we get through the final stages of the economic recovery from all the supply and demand and other disruptions from the IDIOTIC economic shutdown that was imposed on the back of small business and the general population. Perhaps another 6-12 months to be done with the shutdown impact.

    Of course.....to continue the above....the BIG companies and businesses were EXEMPT from the shutdown. Somehow they were ok to stay open. I guess COVID was afraid to go into a big company or business. In my area I cant name a single big business that shut down....Home Depot, Walmart, Costco, Tech companies, etc, etc, etc.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I see that the DOW and SP500 have backed off....a little bit from their highs of the day. BUMMER.

    COME ON....I want my gains today......I deserve them.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    You know I was thinking.......what if "wxyz" is an AI artificial intelligence chat-bot. Is this entire thread an exercise in artificial intelligence being run as a test by some obscure tech company?

    SORRY....no way. You might question my intelligence....but it is not "artificial".
     
    Smokie likes this.
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of the FED.....I dont see the need to stop raising rates to finish out what they have done so far. I STILL expect that there will be a final 1 or 2 rate hikes of 0.25%. By the time we get to May and the next potential FED hike, much of the drama from the banks will be in the past....old news. The FED at that point will have more ability to do another rate hike.

    I STILL see their terminal rate at 5.5% to 6%.

    In other words.....GOOD NEWS......for those that want to lock in some great rates on safe investments like Treasuries or CD's. WELL.....great rates in terms of the last 15 or so years. Even a couple more rate hikes by the FED will simply put us in the "normal" range for rates on a historic basis.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE.....is the markets today.

    Stocks extend gains, bond yields rise:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-march-30-2023-120844229.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "U.S. stocks moved higher Thursday morning after a strong showing on Wednesday.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) added 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) increased by 0.5%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.7%.


    Bond yields edged higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 3.85%. The dollar index down to $102.

    Meanwhile, in a key signal that volatility has stabilized, the VIX moved below 20, as traders bet the banking fallout is in the rear view.

    The S&P 500 closed up 1.4% on Wednesday, above the levels last seen before the Silicon Valley Bank fiasco. Real estate and tech were the top-performing sectors, while gold and oil moved lower. Treasury yields were mixed, while the Nasdaq 100 (^NDX), which tracks the 100 largest companies by market cap — excluding financial sector firms — officially entered a bull market.

    Intel (INTC) stock was the biggest single gainer, surging more than 7% after the company announced that its new server chips will come sooner than anticipated. Shares rose another 2.5% early Thursday.

    Also on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's top banking regulator, Michael Barr, signaled that the central bank intends to maintain its stance in its “meeting-by-meeting judgment on rates” and that “incoming data” will continue to be analyzed. These comments were consistent with Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent remarks, which has driven market participants' expectations for a May rate hike to be little changed.

    Wall Street is also paying attention to the recent developments from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC is mulling over plans to increase fees paid by larger banks to strengthen its bank rescue fund after the agency took a $23 billion hit to cover the costs from Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, Bloomberg reported.

    On the economic front, the number of people filing unemployment claims rose to 198,000, up 7,000 from the prior week ending March 25, slightly above expectations of 196,000. Separately, the American economy expanded to an annualized rate of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022, slightly down from earlier estimates of a 2.7% gain.

    Meanwhile, a pulse check on the housing sector comes Thursday with releases on pending home sales and mortgage applications...."

    MY COMMENT

    Nice to see that this media take is pretty much in line with my off the cuff thoughts today.

    We are in a sweet spot right now where there in NOTHING happening to impact the markets on a REAL basis. SO.....we have a continued path to higher markets. I believe that the market trend right now is strongly to the positive with much headroom since many people have not recognized yet that we are in a bull market. There is a lot of money siting on the sidelines or on the short side of the markets. Eventually the "so called professionals" will flip and come piling back into the markets....their clients will demand it and they will comply as usual.
     

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