The Long Term Investor

I should say......anyone else that wishes to discuss the "unmentioned" story of the day....or for that matter any political topic that touches on investing or the economy.....FEEL FREE TO DO SO.

I am NOT the moderator of this thread and it is NOT up to me to control or limit what any poster wishes to put up on here.

This is NOT......"MY"......thread, it belongs to anyone that wants to post anything they wish. So do not let my personal posting limitations (no politics) restrict anything that YOU want to post and talk about.

 

A quick comment on International Investing.

I just dont do it at all. I figure that the BEST companies in the business world are for the most part located here in the USA. I have very rarely seen any company outside the USA that I was interested in owning. No matter what the category......I see the BEST businesses being here.

In addition.......I DO consider that my BIG CAP MONSTER companies are world wide dominant companies and.....therefore.....since they sell and market and manufacture all over the world.....I am an International Investor....simply by owning the companies that I own. So to that extent I get the benefit from what I own of being an American investor as well as an International investor.....at the same time.

 

I like it.....the markets are BOOMING today. I have not been home till now but what I have seen today.....it looks like a RUN-AWAY market rally. Lets hope it strengthens even more going into the close over the next 30 minutes.

 

WOW......and....YIPPIE-KI-YEY.

A really nice day for the markets today. A STRERLING end to the week and end to the month of March. We open with a brand new month on Monday.

With my HUGE gain today I am now year to date......for my entire portfolio.....+15.86%.

I had all ten stocks in the green today. AND....a nice beat on the SP500 by 0.43% on a day when it was up big.

Can you say.....BULL MARKET.

 

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN.

DOW year to date +0.38%
DOW for the week +3.22%

SP500 year to date +7.03%
SP500 for the week +3.48%

NASDAQ 100 year to date +20.51%
NASDAQ 100 for the week +3.22%

NASDAQ year to date +16.77%
NASDAQ for the week +3.37%

RUSSELL year to date +2.34%
RUSSELL for the week +3.89%

What an amazing week we just had for ALL the averages. These are ONE MONTH to TWO MONTH returns crammed into a single week.

 

I am significantly beating the SP500 so far this year. This is to be expected with the ten stocks that I own.....and remember.....I paid the price last year with the UNNECESSARY beating that most of the BIG CAP TECH names took.

NO GUTS.....NO GLORY.

Obviously this over performance can not keep up all year. Sooner or later the performance of my ten stocks will drop back to the average for those stocks. BUT.....I see a lot of room to run with where the BIG CAP NAMES still are at this moment. My mental goal is to build up as big of a cushion as possible for the inevitable correction that will happen some time this year. That is just the NORMAL market process.

Of course.....I am not actively doing anything to build that cushion....I am simply siting and doing nothing as usual other than being fully invested all the time.

 

HERE is the WALL STREET view of today.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.

The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.

For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.

But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.

Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.

The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.

Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF
(XLK) added roughly 10% in March.

The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.

“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

Bond funds keep raking in cash from investors

This week’s ETF flows shows investors are still focused on fixed income even as stocks appear to be finding their footing.

The top two U.S. funds for flows over the past week have been the Schwab 5-10 year Corporate Bond ETF (SCHI) and the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF),
according to FactSet. The two intermediate term bond funds pulled in about $3.8 billion combined.

On the equity side, one sector that appears to be going strong is semiconductors. The First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF (FTXL) and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
were both in the top 15 of the week for net inflows."

MY COMMENT

The part above about a rotation out of financials is the height of understatement. They have been hammered over the past 3 weeks. At the same time the stock markets in general and especially the BIG CAP GROWTH stocks are ROARING.

It is nice to see the markets having some fun again. We were stuck in a rut last year even though the final six months of the year....at least for the SP500...were actually not too bad.

Somewhere today I was reading an article about "sentiment" still being down. I welcome it......this is how you end up with an extended rally. The longer people refuse to trust or believe in this market rally the better. This is EXACTLY why I stay fully invested all the time....I dont want to miss these EXPLOSIVE RALLIES that are not anticipated or believed by the majority of investors till they are well into the big gains.

 

WELL....the vast majority of us will go into the weekend HAPPY. In addition we are looking at very positive momentum heading into the new week and the new month. Once again there will be little to no new news next week. In other words potential for another very nice week.

I have a couple of shows this weekend...tonight and tomorrow night. Both are a little road trip of about 200 miles. I will come back tonight rather than spend the night...so I will get in tonight about 3:00 to 4:00AM.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.

 

BUMMER....for fans of remote work. Sorry that does not include me as a former business person.

Meta stops offering remote work in new job postings: report
Meta is in the midst of a reorganization which includes a hiring freeze and a round of layoffs involving 10,000 positions

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/meta-stops-offering-remote-work-new-job-postings-report

CEOs are quietly backtracking on remote work—and more companies could follow

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/more-companies-could-increase-rto-requirements-soon.html

OR......as Elon Musk would say:

"remote workers “should pretend to work somewhere else.”"

MY COMMENT

One of my kids does work full time from home since the pandemic. He is a very conscientious and hard worker. Of course he is MANAGEMENT. BUT.....I dont mean to tar and feather all remote workers. I simply dont believe there is any way to possibly maintain discipline, work ethic, hard work, company culture, mentoring, training of new people, sharing of ideas and content, etc, etc, etc, with full time work from home.

 

Hello Ridestock.

I really dont follow any particular AI company.

I personally prefer to benefit from the AI trend with the BIG CAP TECH stocks that I already own....Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Apple, and indirectly Tesla. I believe all of these companies will dominate in the AI niche and of course each of these companies has massive cash reserves to acquire smaller AI companies that mesh with their vision of AI and their products.

I think my companies will give me great AI exposure without having to invest in smaller companies that may not survive the sorting out that will happen in this business area as it develops. In addition the BIG CAP companies that I like will also give me massive exposure to all the other areas of the tech business in addition to AI.

What companies in the AI area do you like Ridestock? Do you have any favorites that you think will be dominant in the AI field?

A very good question in your post and certainly extremely relevant. Anyone else have any favorites and if so why?

 

Here is a little real estate update on my particular area of about 4200 homes.

For the last 30 days:

Average price $1.34MILLION......a +6% gain.

Days on market to sale.....66 days......a decrease of 10%.

Number of active listings.....47 homes.

 

I have avoided many of these simply by being a lifelong fully invested all the time long term investor.

One of the Biggest Mistakes in Investing

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/03/one-of-the-biggest-mistakes-in-investing/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"There are many different ways to succeed as an investor.

If there were only one approach that worked, everyone would do that.1

I know plenty of investors with completely different styles that have found success in the markets over the years.

But there are only a handful of ways investors fail in the markets:

• Allowing your emotions to get the best of you.
• Chasing fad investments.
• Not following an investment plan.
• Thinking you’re smarter than the markets.
• Being overconfident in your abilities as an investor.

I’m sure I missed a few but that covers most of the big ones.

Every investor makes mistakes from Warren Buffett to the Robinhood trader. The hope is that you get them out of the way when you’re young and don’t have a lot of money at stake.

Unfortunately, sometimes investors make mistakes when they are older and have more of their life savings on the line.

The biggest investment mistakes tend to happen when you make a bad decision at the worst possible time.

The Wall Street Journal profiled a number of individual investors this week to see how regular people manage their finances in retirement.

This part of the story was painful to read:

Mr. Jones’s retirement account took a hit in 2008 and never recovered. Spooked by the S&P 500’s 38.49% decline in 2008, he sold his stocks and invested in a stable value fund that earned about 1% a year, said the couple’s son-in-law, Jon Older, a doctor who has managed the portfolio since 2018. Dr. Older moved 35% of the balance into a low-cost stock index fund and the rest into an intermediate Treasury bond index fund.

Each month, they earn $2,500 in Social Security, plus Ms. Jones’s $1,877 pension, the current value of which is about $300,000.

Selling out of their stocks after a crash had already occurred completely changed their retirement plans.

The Jones’s weren’t alone in selling out during the Great Financial Crisis. I’ve heard from dozens and dozens of investors over the years who went to cash but were never able to get back in.2

In some ways, it’s understandable why so many investors capitulated.

We had an 18-month-long bear market that saw the stock market fall more than 50%. And people were still licking their wounds from the bursting of the dot-com bubble, another market crash that cut the stock market in half earlier that same decade.

It’s just hard to see how selling out after you’ve experienced large losses is ever going to be a winning strategy.

Market timing is always difficult but doing so in the midst of a market crash makes it exponentially harder from a psychological perspective.

Hitting the eject button after suffering big losses can provide some sense of relief but any short-term feelings of comfort end up doing more harm than good.

Just get me out. I’ll get back in when the dust settles.

You become addicted to sitting in cash because it feels like the downside volatility will never end. And when stocks have a rip-your-face-off rally as they tend to do coming off a market crash, you talk yourself out of re-investing because you assume those gains aren’t going to last.

By the time the dust settles, it’s too late.

One year out from the bottom in March 2009 the S&P 500 was up almost 70%.

Two years later the market had nearly doubled.

By 2015 the stock market had shot up more than 200% from the lows.

It’s bad enough you have to sit through massive drawdowns in the stock market on occasion. But if you take the beatings AND miss out on the subsequent gains you end up losing twice.

So what’s the solution for investors who want to avoid doing irreparable damage to their portfolio during a market crash scenario?

Create an asset allocation you would be comfortable holding in any market environment.

This is a preemptive move so it’s not going to help you all that much if you’re already sitting on a pile of losses. But if you sell after a market crash takes place you either don’t have what it takes to invest in stocks or you were taking too much risk in the first place.

The whole point of a well-balanced asset allocation portfolio is that it should be durable enough to handle bull markets, bear markets, sideways markets, inflation, deflation, booms, busts and everything in between.

Can asset allocation save you from losses? No, there is no reward in the long run if you’re not willing to accept some risk of loss in the short run.

But if you don’t have a good handle on your risk profile and time horizon you increase the odds of making an avoidable mistake at the worst possible time."

MT COMMENT

YES.....it is a disaster to lose big in the markets or experience some other investing disaster in retirement. You dont have the long term time to make up the losses and at that stage in life it is very difficult to get back up on the investing horse. It is critical to have a cash-flow plan for retirement that will guarantee that you will not get shaken out of the markets at the worst time in a way that impacts you for the rest of your life.


As usual the above seems so simple. We all read it and go...."yeah right, who doesn't know this"....yet the majority of people WILL end up as victims to most of the dangers above.

The above are critical to keep in mind....but.....the most important single item is....HAVE A PLAN. And part of that plan should include recognition of the FACT that......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

 

I have been saying this in this thread for a long time. It is nice to see someone else with the same recognition.

Stocks Stopped Going Down

https://allstarcharts.com/stocks-stopped-going-down/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks stopped going down a long time ago.

In bear markets stocks go down in price.

In bear markets you get more and more stocks making new lows.

In bear markets the indexes don’t keep putting up major gains quarter after quarter.

And so what’s been happening in the current market environment?

Most stocks stopped making new lows last June.

Since then, almost no stock in the market is still making new lows.

In fact, when the S&P500 hit new lows last October, there were barely any stocks left still going down.

We know. We have the data.

Everyone does. It’s free.

It’s just that most people see what they want to see.

Here at All Star Charts, we pride ourselves on living in reality.

We don’t care about narratives because we’re adults who don’t need bed time stories to sleep at night.

Yesterday morning we talked about how the S&P500 is finishing up another very strong quarter.

Here’s what this looks like. Notice how in bear markets you never see back to back quarters of impressive gains:



Look for yourself. I’m not making it up. It’s just math. (click chart to zoom in)

The S&P500 rallying 6% this quarter, after putting up a 7% print last quarter, is perfectly normal market behavior in bull markets.

If this was a bear market, it would be the first time in history that stocks keep going up during a bear market.

By definition, they do not.

It’s funny to think that there are people out there who believe that stocks go up regularly in bear markets. These same people must think that in bear markets the majority of stocks don’t go down in price.

Is it bad math? Or is it a psychological thing?

I don’t know.

But I like it.

The more angry they are. The more scared they get. The more fuel there is to continue to drive stocks higher.

It’s a market of stocks. Don’t forget that.

And that’s the point. “JC who cares whether this is a bull market or a bear market”.

The reason we care is to help answer the question of whether we want to be spending more time looking for stocks to buy, or should we be spending more time looking for stocks to sell?

That’s why it’s important.

First we want to identify the market environment, AND THEN choose which tools are strategies are best for that market.

Multiple timeframe analysis helps tremendously with that.

So when you zoom in to the S&P500 shorter term, we’re still in this range stuck below overhead supply.

But as more and more stocks break out, and fewer and fewer stocks break down, in which direction is this consolidation likely to resolve?



I think higher.

It’s a weight-of-the-evidence thing.

Europe is showing the U.S. which direction stocks are heading (Euro STOXX 50 up 16% this quarter & up 25% last quarter)

The U.S. is just a laggard this bull market.

And there’s nothing wrong with that. The U.S. doesn’t always have to be the leader. In fact, go back in history. There were a ton of bull markets throughout history where the U.S. was the laggard.

It’s ok.

It’s perfectly normal.

Some people can’t adapt.

Don’t be one of those people."

MY COMMENT

Welcome to the reality of the.....new.....BULL MARKET. Of course this started back at the end of June 2022. It was far from obvious back than....but by August and into September and October it became very obvious. No it did not take a lot of fancy number crundhing and analysis. All you had to do to see this happening is pull up a chart of the SP500 that allowed you to see results for......5 days, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, YTD, 1 year, 3 years.

 

I am not going to "bold" anything here.....I am simply posting this as a resource. BUT.......DISCLAIMER.....before you rely on anything in this information be sure to double check it with your tax professional. In other words do NOT assume that anything you see on the internet is true.

Morningstar’s 2023 Tax Guide and IRA Resources
Tax day is quickly approaching. Here are the answers to some common questions about taxes and IRAs.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1136854/morningstars-2023-tax-guide-and-ira-resources

"Tax day is Tuesday, April 18, this year. The clock is ticking for making IRA and HSA contributions for tax-year 2022 and for submitting federal and state income tax returns and taxes due.

We’ve pulled together some resources to help reduce investors’ tax-related stress this time of year. Read on for the tax-related dates to put on your calendar, what tax changes are coming in 2023, strategies for maximizing your IRA, and more.

Resources to Tackle Tax Day 2023
Your 2023 Tax Fact Sheet and Calendar

When Do I Get My Tax Refund?

We explain the different types of taxes you owe, how much to expect from your tax refund this year, and more.

4 Strategies for an Organized Tax Season

More on This Topic

• Important Tax Changes in 2023

Has tax season become a frustrating paper chase? These tactics can buy you some relief.

What You Can Learn from Your 1099 Forms

These forms can yield valuable information about your portfolio’s asset location and tax efficiency.

Important Tax Changes in 2023

Inflation is driving higher limits on retirement plan contributions this year, but it’s also lifting the amount of income that’s subject to Social Security tax.

What You Can Learn From Your Tax Return

Scrutinizing your tax documents can help you improve your financial and investment plan, says Maria Bruno, Vanguard’s head of U.S. wealth planning research.

Jeff Levine: Smart Tax Moves for 2023 and Beyond

The financial planning expert discusses Secure 2.0, tax planning before and during retirement, and whether investors should bank on continued low tax rates.

2023 Tax-Year IRA Contribution and Income Limits

• 2023 IRA Contribution Limits (Roth or Traditional): $6,500 under age 50/$7,500 age 50 and over.
• 2023 Income Limits for Deductible IRA Contribution, single filers covered by a retirement plan at work: Modified adjusted gross income under $73,000—fully deductible contribution; between $73,000 and $83,000—partially deductible contribution; more than $83,000—contribution not deductible.
• 2023 Income Limits for Deductible IRA Contribution, single filers who are not covered by a retirement plan at work or married couples if neither spouse is covered by a retirement plan at work: None.
• 2023 Income Limits for Deductible IRA Contribution, married couples filing jointly, if covered by a retirement plan at work: Modified adjusted gross income under $116,000—fully deductible contribution; between $116,000 and $136,000—partially deductible contribution; more than $136,000—contribution not deductible.
• 2023 Income Limits for Deductible IRA Contributions, married couples filing jointly, if not covered by a retirement plan at work but spouse is: Modified adjusted gross income under $218,000—fully deductible contribution; between $218,000 and $228,000—partially deductible contribution; more than $228,000—contribution not deductible.
• 2023 Income Limits for Nondeductible IRA Contributions: None.
• 2023 Income Limits for IRA Conversions: None.
• 2023 Income Limits for Roth IRA Contribution, single filers: Modified adjusted gross income under $138,000—full Roth contribution; between $138,000 and $153,000—partial Roth contribution; more than $153,000—no Roth contribution.
• 2023 Income Limits for Roth IRA Contribution, married couples filing jointly: Modified adjusted gross income under $218,000—full Roth contribution; between $218,000 and $228,000—partial Roth contribution; more than $228,000—no Roth contribution.

IRA Resources, Strategies, and Ideas
Tips for Last-Minute IRA Contributions

Rushing in a 2022 contribution before the April 18 deadline? Tax and IRA expert Ed Slott shares what you need to know.

The Best (and Easiest) Investment for an IRA

Target-date funds are an easy remedy for IRA procrastinators. Here’s why.

How to Get The Most Out of Your IRA Contributions

Tips for selecting the right account type and using new contributions to adjust your portfolio’s allocations.

How IRA Investors Can Avoid the ‘Procrastination Penalty’

Maria Bruno, Vanguard’s head of U.S. wealth planning research, discusses trends in IRA contributions and how to maximize the funds going into your account.

6 IRA Mistakes to Avoid in 2023

With a little planning, investors can maximize their individual retirement accounts.

Everything You Need to Know About Roth IRAs

Roth IRA contribution and income limits, the ins and outs of the backdoor IRA maneuver, and more.

You Can Make IRA Contributions at Any Age. But Should You?

Traditional IRA contributions after RMD age may make sense in a handful of situations, but not many.

Are IRA Conversions in a Down Market a Good Idea?

Tax and IRA expert Ed Slott on when conversions can result in the greatest tax savings—and what to know before you execute them.

How to Choose Funds for Your IRA

Find the right category and funds for your retirement savings.

3 Great ETFs for Your IRA in 2023

IRA accounts can enhance the tax efficiency of ETFs.

3 Great Funds for Your IRA in 2023

These funds will make beautiful music with your IRA.

More Tax Strategies for 2023
25 Top Picks for Tax-Efficient ETFs and Mutual Funds

These funds can help manage your tax-cost ratio while providing stock and bond exposure.

How to Maximize the Tax Efficiency of ETFs

And strategies that may undermine their tax advantage.

Get a Tax-Smart Plan for In-Retirement Withdrawals

Consider these strategies to stretch out your tax savings during your retirement years.

Are You Paying Too Much in Investment-Related Taxes?

Asset location is an important yet often overlooked part of portfolio planning.

3 Tax-Friendly Charitable Giving Strategies for Retirees

Consider these ideas before filing your taxes.

Tax Matters for Financial Advisors
7 Must-Know Facts About Federal Income Tax Treatment of IRAs

Here’s how income taxes hit an IRA that is payable to a trust when the owner dies.

Why Advisors Should Bother With Tax Alpha

A simple way to boost investment performance without adding risk.

Tax-Timing Your Retirement

The effect of postponing RMDs and how to eventually start taking money out of your retirement plan.

Tax Benefits for Active and Passive Real Estate Investors

Investors can save on taxes through the tool of depreciation."

 

One thing all investors should be afraid of is.....FEAR.

Investors ‘are pretty afraid right now,’ financial psychologist says. These 2 steps can help

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/31/fin...-steps-to-cope-with-fear-over-the-market.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• We’re in a period of high uncertainty and many “people are pretty afraid right now,” said Brad Klontz, a psychologist and certified financial planner.
• That fear can lead people to make money moves they’ll regret.

With high inflation, the threat of a recession and ongoing market volatility, we’re in a period of high financial uncertainty. Understandably, many investors “are pretty afraid right now,” said Brad Klontz, a psychologist and certified financial planner.

And when we’re stressed, our frame of reference tends to become short, said Klontz, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council. In other words: The uncomfortable moment feels like the only thing that matters.

While that tendency is a survival mechanism that’s helped us act in stressful situations, Klontz said, it can make us do the “absolutely wrong thing when it comes to investing.”

Instead of acting impulsively with your money, take these two steps, Klontz said.

1. Remind yourself why you’re investing

Most of us are long-term investors, Klontz said. “Does looking at a really narrow frame of reference make sense for you?” he asked.

If you’re investing for retirement, you may not need that money for decades, and so the answer is no. What’s happening with the S&P 500 over a few months, or even a few years, shouldn’t matter too much.

Zooming out, the average annual return on stocks was around 8% between 1900 and 2017, after adjusting for inflation, according to Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.

Simply put, if you can’t withstand the bad days in the market, you’ll also lose out on the good ones, experts say.

Over the last roughly 20 years, the S&P 500 produced an average annual return of around 6%. If you missed the best 20 days in the market over that time span because you became convinced you should sell, and then reinvested later, your return would shrivel to just 0.1%, according to an analysis by Charles Schwab.

2. Ask yourself: What is the money for?

Of course, most people aren’t saving and investing only for long-term goals like retirement. If market volatility is causing you a lot of stress, you may need to make adjustments.

If you’re investing in the market for a shorter-term goal like buying a car or house, “there’s a good chance you’re going to get hurt,” Klontz said. “When you need that money, it might be down 10%, 20% or more.

Meanwhile, if retiring is on the horizon for you, it may be time to tilt your portfolio more toward safer assets."

MY COMMENT

Not much here, a pretty simple article. BUT......the single most powerful emotion that controls behavior is FEAR.

As an investor....especially a long term investor.....you need to realize that "control" is an illusion. Over the short term practically ALL events and happenings are unpredictable and out of our control.

ONLY....by investing for the long term can you actually follow the....."PROBABILITIES"....that actually do being some level of reason to investing. That is why I invest for the long term....that is why I dont market time.....that is why I am fully invested all the time....that is why I do BIG CAP dominant company investing...that is why I buy all in all at once when I am going to buy a stock....etc, etc, etc.

ALL of these have been shown to be associated with....."PROBABILITY".....of maximizing market gains and success. BUT....of course....in the end nothing is guaranteed in life and random events happen all the time.