The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I like this comment.

    Weekly Market Pulse: Not Dead Yet

    https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/05/01/weekly-market-pulse-not-dead-yet/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


    "Bring out your dead!

    CUSTOMER: Here’s one.

    CART MASTER: Nine pence.

    DEAD PERSON: I’m not dead!

    CART MASTER: What?

    CUSTOMER: Nothing. Here’s your nine pence.

    DEAD PERSON: I’m not dead!

    CART MASTER: ‘Ere. He says he’s not dead!

    CUSTOMER: Yes, he is.

    DEAD PERSON: I’m not!

    CART MASTER: He isn’t?

    CUSTOMER: Well, he will be soon. He’s very ill.

    DEAD PERSON: I’m getting better!

    CUSTOMER: No, you’re not. You’ll be stone dead in a moment.

    – Monty Python and The Holy Grail"

    "Has anyone seen the recession? Last year GDP shrunk ever so slightly in the first two quarters of the year and the chorus of recession calls started to rise, led mostly by political partisans who assured us that the Biden administration was changing the definition of recession to avoid having to admit how bad the economy was with the unemployment rate under 4%. But the definition never changed and the metrics the NBER uses to declare a recession never even approached past recession levels.

    Then the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread turned negative in June and calls for recession reached a deafening roar. The angst over recession was so great that Google searches for “recession” were twice the level of 2008.

    During the summer of 2022, I read many confident predictions that the US would surely enter recession by the end of the year. When Q3 GDP was reported as a gain of 3.2%, the economic pessimists said it was only because of a shrinking trade deficit which they assured us wasn’t really positive. And we were told that recession was still coming if not by the end of the year, then certainly by Q1 of 2023. But Q4 GDP was another surprise, at least to the negative nellies, rising 2.6%. This time the bears said well, yes but that was only because inventories rose and added 1.5% to the total GDP number. That was, of course, negative because no one really wanted to build up inventory.

    And last week, the BEA released the first estimate of GDP for Q1 2023 showing +1.1% annualized growth from the previous quarter. And the bears cheered because now it’s obvious, even to all of those doubters out there, that growth is slowing and it’s still only a matter of time before we get that Godot recession, the one everyone is waiting on. I’m sure they all wrote about how inventory affected this report too, right? No? Hmm, well, I guess I have to break the news then and tell you that the drawdown in inventories actually reduced the headline GDP figure by 2.26%, Absent inventories and trade, real final sales to domestic purchasers rose by 3.2%.

    The market/economic pundits who have been calling for recession for the last year are mostly the same ones who have been preaching doom and gloom for over a decade, absolutely oblivious to the real world around them. Heck, I can think of one economist who has been bearish my entire career and I started doing this before the advent of online trading. Heck, I started doing this before the advent of online. If the guru you’re listening to hasn’t changed their mind in a decade or more, I’m just going to politely suggest that maybe they aren’t worth listening to. And it doesn’t matter whether they are bullish or bearish. If you know what they’re going to say before they say it, tune them out.

    I wrote just last week that a recession at some point this year should probably be our base case. That’s based on a variety of historical facts but still isn’t a sure thing. We know the LEI is pointing to recession within the next year and that has never been wrong, which doesn’t mean it won’t be this time. We know that ECRI is calling for recession and they have had one bad call in the last 5 decades or so. We also have a yield curve that inverted and is now, slowly, starting to steepen again, a change we usually see within about a year of recession. But we don’t have confirmation from some other factors, such as credit spreads and jobless claims, that are more coincident with the onset of recession and so, we still aren’t there yet. I have also pointed out that even if we do enter recession this year, that is no guarantee that markets will do what you think they will. Markets don’t usually make big moves when things turn out as expected and I’m hard-pressed to think of anything more expected right now than a recession.

    Last week’s GDP report was not some kind of near miss, something that could be interpreted as negative if you just squint and employ a little confirmation bias. The US economy in Q1 2023 was good and we shouldn’t be shy about saying so:

    • Nominal GDP rose by 5.1%, continuing a slowing trend that reflects improving inflation figures and continued steady real growth
    • Real GDP rose an annualized 1.1% from Q4 2022
    • Real final sales to domestic purchasers rose by 3.2%
    • Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.7% with goods up 6.5% and services up 2.3%. Durable goods rose by 16.9%, led by autos
    • Non-residential investment rose 0.7% but within that category, structures rose by 11.2% (factory construction is booming). Equipment was down but that comes after big up years in 2021 and 2022
    • Residential investment fell 4.2% but that was a huge improvement from the last two quarters which saw drops of over 25%
    • Exports and imports were both up
    And it isn’t hard to see why:

    • Disposable personal income rose 12.5%, an acceleration from last quarter’s still large gain of 8.9%. The gain was a combination of higher incomes (mostly wages) and lower personal taxes
    • Real disposable personal income (after inflation) rose 8%, up from 5% last quarter
    • The savings rate rose from 4% to 4.8%. Annualized savings in the quarter were nearly a trillion dollars
    I don’t see how anyone can look at that report and come up with a negative interpretation. This is not the recession you’re looking for.

    Our economy is far from perfect. We have, as they say, issues. Inflation is still stubbornly high (and the dollar is falling now which makes that more significant) and companies are starting to exhibit some reluctance to invest. Core capital goods orders were reported down in March, the 4th negative month out of the last 5. They are, however, still well above the pre-COVID trend. The regional Fed manufacturing surveys and the ISM manufacturing reports have been weak, a function of the inventory correction that has just run through the economy. The good news there is that if consumption holds up, production will have to ramp up to meet demand. We are also about to have a fight about the debt ceiling again, which will get resolved eventually but in the meantime provides a great reminder that our government is a dysfunctional mess.

    But, right now, despite all those problems and many more, the US economy is pretty darn good no matter what you read on Twitter. "

    MY COMMENT

    SORRY......wishful thinking is not REALITY. Those pushing recession have their own agenda. Even if one happens.....it will probably not be deep or long and will not impact much at all.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    To continue on the "GURU" theme.

    Why the stock market is smarter than any of us – including the bears

    https://nypost.com/2023/04/30/why-the-stock-market-is-smarter-than-any-of-us-including-the-bears/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The banking crisis isn’t over. The Fed is still hiking rates. Earnings look weak.

    The bears are still groaning, and whatever the reasons they cite on a given day, you can be sure they are claiming that rising stocks are the product of irrational markets that are turning a blind eye to obvious risks or calamities that lie ahead.

    Nonsense. Stocks see every risk that the headlines are blaring – always, and better than you, me, or these roaring bears. The S&P 500’s continued rise shows that fears over the banking crisis and other supposedly terrifying tales are false or overblown.

    Think I’m kidding? Yes, it’s at odds with the common, maybe comfortable sentiment that the stock market is mired in chaos and we’re all basically flying blind. Nevertheless, the fact is that markets imperfectly, but rationally, digest millions of diverse facts coldly and emotionlessly, aggregating them into prices representing all widely known information and opinions — missing nothing.

    Yes, they wiggle around wildly, briefly — and seemingly irrationally. As Ben Graham, the legendary “father” of security analysis, said in 1949, in the short-term the stock market is a voting machine. Popularity and emotion can swing it. Longer-term, he deemed it a ”weighing machine” and noted that it weighs all factors remarkably well.

    Individual investors tend to struggle with that, whether from personal bias, ego or what I call the “Pessimism of Disbelief,” which I detailed in my March 5 column.

    Consider recent bank busts that have sparked global contagion and banking collapse fears. In my March 15 column, I explained how Silicon Valley Bank’s fall stemmed from its uniquely concentrated venture capital oriented deposit base, making a bank run easy but contagion unlikely.

    If you didn’t believe me, believe this: Through April 28 the S&P 500 is fully 6% higher than before SVB’s woes erupted — rivaling the high year to date. US financial stocks fell further then — but even they staunched their downside over the last month.

    Contagion? Where? It’s true that regional Federal Reserve Bank emergency borrowing expectedly jumped in San Francisco and New York — SVB’s and Signature’s respective homes. But it didn’t jump anywhere else.

    Was Credit Suisse contagion? Decades of lousy management killed it – 92% off its post-financial-crisis high before SVB blew up. Zero surprise. Teetering, it collapsed from mere fear of spreading problems. Markets fathomed this. Headlines and individuals couldn’t.

    It’s not new, of course, to see pundits dismiss early bull markets as irrational. Recall 2009-2010 when a Wall Street versus Main Street “split” became conventional wisdom. Wrong.

    Or 2020? Amid depression forecasts and COVID-based “it’s different this time” talk, most deemed surging stocks “disconnected” from reality. But stocks were right. Why? That bear market’s cause (lockdowns) and remedy (reopening) were basic. Markets could calculate the economic damage fast, fathom past it, and correctly envision better earnings while few individuals could.

    Add in 2020’s divisive election, all sides fearing craziness (which seemingly came). Stocks rolled on. Irrational? Bears growled as the S&P 500 soared 120%.

    Since September, following 2022’s cub-bear market, stocks again rose past heralded fears like midterms, Fed phobia, impending recession and lasting 1970s-style inflation. Stocks foresee when supposed impending mountains are molehills. Stocks always lead economic reality; they never lag it. So follow the leader.

    Still fretting over the Fed? US stocks rose 16.2% since October 12 despite four hikes totaling 175 basis points and the presumption of another 25 this week. They gained 10.3% since the Fed started big bad 75-bps hikes last June—and are just -3% off 2022’s initial hike.

    “High” valuations? Price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) and other valuation metrics statistically never predicted one-, three- or five-year returns. Why? Stocks look forward. Earnings look backward. In new bull markets, the P rises fast. The E rises last.

    Stocks see everything we can, and more. Trust them — not those suffering the pessimism of disbelief."

    MY COMMENT

    We are in a FEAR MONGERING frenzy this week. Enjoy the insanity........as you IGNORE it all.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The poor markets are unable to overcome the crescendo of negativity that is rampant in the media today.

    The financial media is on a full speed ahead drive of nothing but.......WOE IS US. Banks are collapsing, the economy is going into a recession, the FED is meeting, stocks are going to CRASH, the country is going to DEFAULT, etc, etc, etc. Every single one of these story lines IGNORES the basic facts. It is all Doom and Gloom and blatant fear mongering opinion.

    As an investor......I LOVE IT. There is no greater indicator for a good future for investors than total negativity. This is the greatest contrary indicator we could possible have. It is the STUPIDITY of the mob.

    I have scanned at least 100 or more headlines and articles today......nothing but DOOM.....DOOM....DOOM.
     
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This data supports a FED pause.

    Job openings fell more than expected in March to lowest in nearly two years

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/02/jolts-march-2023-.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Job vacancies totaled 9.59 million for the month, down from 9.97 million in February and below the FactSet estimate for 9.64 million.
    • Orders for manufactured goods increased 0.9% in March, less than the 1.3% estimate.

    Employment openings pulled back further in March, hitting a nearly two-year low in a sign that the ultra-tight U.S. jobs market is loosening up and possibly putting less pressure on inflation, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

    The department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job vacancies totaled 9.59 million for the month, down from 9.97 million in February and below the FactSet estimate for 9.64 million.

    Though the data set runs a month behind the nonfarm payrolls number, the Federal Reserve watches the JOLTS report closely for signs of labor slack. A lower number is positive for inflation as it indicates less pressure on wages and could ease pressure on the Fed to continue raising interest rates.

    However, stocks fell following the release, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 400 points on the session. A separate report from the Commerce Department at the same time showed orders for manufactured goods increased 0.9% in March, less than the 1.3% estimate.

    The level of job vacancies was the lowest total since April 2021 and cut the ratio of open jobs to available workers to 1.6 to 1 after being around 2 to 1 for most of the past two years or so.

    Quits, which are considered a measure of worker confidence in the ability to leave one’s job and find another, declined by 129,000 to 3.85 million, the lowest level since May 2021 amid what had been dubbed the “Great Resignation.”

    Hires for the month were unchanged at 6.15 million, while separations rose slightly.

    The release comes as the Fed began its two-day policy meeting Tuesday. Markets are assigning a nearly 100% probability that the central bank on Wednesday will announce a 0.25 percentage point interest rate increase."

    MY COMMENT

    Nearly ALL the economic data lately is pointing in the right direction for a FED pause. I do expect that the FED will do one more rate hike this week and than will pause for a while....probably the rest of the year. NO....they are not going to start cutting rates this year....that view is disconnected from reality.

    Will the markets celebrate a FED pause? NO WAY....because the FED will still be out in force in the media jaw-boning the economy down and trying to head fake everyone that they "MIGHT" still raise rates some more. They are going to play it that way for as long as they can.

    After a while people will catch on and just IGNORE THEM....but till we get to that point......it will be full on FEAR MONGERING.....as usual.

    It is unfortunate that the FED has an irrational COMPULSION to trash the stock markets......instead....of trashing the actual causes of inflation. They are willing to throw stock market investors and all the retiring baby boomers.....who no longer have pensions and are dependent on the markets for retirement......under the bus.....in order to try to weaken the economy.
     
  5. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Yes, it appears our quite day yesterday is gone. They are definitely on a rip today. I agree, lets just tear the walls down and wallow in the mud and the impending misery....nothing can save us now. It is all over, but the crying. Pick a bridge to live under and stock up on cat food.
     
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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I was looking at the real estate data for my little local area last night. for a few months now in my area listings over $1MILLION have been lingering and siting. BUT....i noticed last night that the dam appears to have broken....there were a good number of homes over $1MILLION that are now pending. Looks like the sellers won the inventory battle....the buyers have capitulated. Inventory is still very low....and sellers are buying.

    Home prices are back on the rise as the spring market proves competitive

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/02/home-prices-rise-in-march-amid-competitive-spring-market.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Home prices in March rose for the third consecutive month, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
    • New listings are 30% lower than pre-pandemic norms for this time of year.
    • Nearly half of homes on the market are selling within two weeks.

    After cooling for the better part of last year, home prices are on the rise again.

    A sharp drop in new listings, adding to an already meager supply of homes for sale, is leading to renewed bidding wars and more homes selling for above asking price.

    Home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.45% in March from February, according an early look at the Black Knight Home Price Index provided exclusively to CNBC. After revisions to January and February reads, this is now the third consecutive month of price increases.

    Roughly 30% fewer new listings came on the market in March compared with pre-pandemic norms. The deficit continues to grow, as fewer potential sellers want to list their homes in today’s higher-mortgage-rate environment. This comes in the heart of the spring housing market, when demand is historically highest.

    A modest bump in homebuyer demand ran headlong into falling for-sale supply,” said Andy Walden, Black Knight’s vice president of enterprise research. “Just five months ago, prices were declining on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in 92% of all major U.S. markets. Fast forward to March, and the situation has done a literal 180, with prices now rising in 92% of markets from February.”

    Competition among buyers is not only pushing prices higher but also accelerating the market again. Nearly half of homes on the market are selling within two weeks, the highest share in nearly a year, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage.

    The national gains, however, do not show sharp differentials in price strength and weakness regionally. Prices in the West, where metropolitan markets had been most expensive, are well off their recent peaks, while 40% of other major markets have seen prices return to peak levels.

    Of the nation’s 50 largest housing markets by population, just Austin, Salt Lake City and San Antonio are seeing prices fall month to month. Prices in Phoenix and Dallas are flat.

    The initial softening in home prices came early last summer, when mortgage rates had basically doubled in the span of a few months. Rates are now off their recent peak, but not by much. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage has been bouncing between 6% and 7%; in the first few years of the pandemic it hit more than a dozen record lows, generally hovering around 3%.

    Buyers are clearly getting used to the higher-rate environment, as sales have strengthened for the past few months. Homebuilders have recently reported strong quarterly earnings, as they use incentives like mortgage rate buydowns to pull in sales. Builders also have far more supply and are clearly benefitting from the lack of existing homes for sale.

    A separate report released Tuesday from CoreLogic focuses on home price comparisons from a year ago, but also shows prices gaining month to month. Prices in March were just over 3% higher than last year nationally, but markets in the sunbelt are far outpacing cities in the West and Northeast. Prices in Miami were up nearly 15% from a year ago.

    Meanwhile, home prices in 10 states are lower than they were last March, according to CoreLogic: Washington (-7.4%), Idaho (-3.6%), Nevada (-3.5%), Utah (-3.4%), California (-3%), Montana (-2.3%), Oregon (-2%), Colorado (-1%), Arizona (-0.9%) and New York (-0.6%).

    The monthly rebound in home prices underscores the lack of inventory in this housing cycle,” wrote Selma Hepp, CoreLogic’s chief economist in a release. “In addition, while the lack of affordability generally weighs on home price growth, mobility resulting from remote working conditions appears to be a current driver of home prices in some areas of the country.”"

    MY COMMENT

    I am seeing nice sales in my little local area. Some of this is being driven by local publicity lately about my zip code.

    We used to be overlooked and disrespected as a suburban area too far away from downtown. NOW.....in recent reports we are......"probably"..... the most desirable area in the entire Austin region. The recent data shows that my area has the highest income level in the entire Austin region. We have now.....for the first time...... ECLIPSED the areas that were traditionally seen as the high income areas of the Austin region.
     
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  7. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    And don't forget the debt ceiling. We are just warming that one up on the back burner. With the FOMC and our policy makers....we are in good, responsible hands.

    Okay, a little fun poking at the pundits and all the other drama. Anyone who has been investing for a good bit should recognize this type of stuff. We have seen it all before. Sometimes the events or circumstances are different, but at some point they have one particular thing in common. They end.

    Sure, we will go on until the next one and we will dust ourselves off and carry on. Depending on how long one invests, there will be other bear markets, black swans, epic runs, and all time highs. It is just how it is.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yep Smokie......we are all DOOMED to lose ALL of our money in the coming stock market blood bath. After all according to the headlines:

    MY COMMENT

    See the below as examples of what is all over the internet today. NO.....I will not post links since this stuff is simply...BALONEY.

    Stocks sink as bank shares plunge, Fed meeting gets underway

    Half of America’s banks are already insolvent – this is how a credit crunch begins

    First Republic’s failure shows we are fighting an unwinnable war

    Oil falls 4% to five-week low on U.S. default worries, weak economic data

    Stock Pickers on Wall Street Are Going All-In on Recession Bets

    The S&P 500 Is in for a World of Hurt, Courtesy of Powell.

    Bitcoin Is Falling. The Fed Decision Could Mean ‘All Bets Are Off’ for Cryptos.

    The stock market is poised for a sell-off as an overly hawkish Fed could dash hopes for interest rate cuts

    Wall St falls on U.S. debt-ceiling jitters, Fed meet in focus
     
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  9. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    in response to post above. turn it up. :rofl:

     
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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For what it is worth.....here....is the short term one day in the markets........today.

    Stocks sink as bank shares plunge, Fed meeting gets underway

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-may-2-122735923.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "U.S. stocks tumbled on Tuesday as the fallout from First Republic Bank's (FRC) failure continued to hit bank stocks and the Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 1.7% in mid-morning trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled more than 500 points, or 1.6%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 1.5%.

    Government bonds slumped as fresh data from the Labor Department showed that the labor market continues to cool. The yield on the 10-year note was down to 3.4%,
    and two-year note yield fell to 3.9%.

    Regulators took possession of First Republic and sold the bulk of its assets to JPMorgan Chase (JPM), resulting in the third failure of an American bank since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March.

    It's been a wild ride for First Republic, which teetered on the brink of failure for nearly two months. The regional lender last week revealed that deposit outflows totaled over $70 billion in the first quarter.

    Investors are worried the worst isn't over for regional banks. The S&P 500 regional banking index (KRE) was down 7% midday. Shares of PacWest Bancorp (PACW) sank 33%, while Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) plunged as much as 24%.

    Investors are also closely waiting for the outcome of the Fed meeting, expected to be announced Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by a quarter point. Investors' main focus will be whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives any hints of what's to come at the central bank's June meeting.

    Some market participants are placing bets that the central bank will maintain its hawkish tone and could signal a June hike. Others, like Morgan Stanley’s equity strategist Mike Wilson, expects the Fed to pause interest rate hikes and also refrain from rate cuts through the end of the year, resulting in the federal funds rate remaining at a steady level of just over 5% for the foreseeable future.

    "Should the message delivered at this meeting lead to a re-pricing of bond market expectations for rate cuts in the second half of '23 (i.e., rate cuts get priced out, leading to an implied path that's more in line with our economists' view for a pause), that could ultimately be a negative surprise for equities," Wilson said in a Monday note.

    Wall Street will also turn its attention to April’s jobs report on Friday. On Tuesday, fresh economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that job openings dropped to 9.6 million in March, below economists call for 9.7 million. The quit rate ticked down to 2.5% and layoffs increased to 1.8 million, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Tuesday.

    "The signs of labor market softness won’t be a game-changer for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, though they do suggest that the cumulative amount of policy tightening is starting to have its desired effect on businesses’ labor demand," JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli said in a research note.

    Meanwhile, in Washington, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the government could run out of funding to pay its bills by the beginning of June if Congress fails to raise the debt limit — comments that also weighed on stocks.

    Another headliner this week on the earnings front will be Apple’s quarterly results on deck for Thursday."

    MY COMMENT

    The NOISE today is DEAFENING. I will soon run for my quiet space.

    I was telling my wife yesterday that we need to put in a 1950's style bomb shelter in our back yard.

    I have NEVER posted my identifying information on here before.....but.....here is a current photo:

    [​IMG]

     
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  11. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Well, I have news for them. I have sat through worse than this and still have a nice, fat stash of financial security. I did not get it by running around and heading for the exits, or massively tinkering, changing plans, or trying to time and make wide scale predictions. I have stayed on course....even at times when it was very difficult to do and ignore. It has paid off in the long term.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Good one EMMETT. You need to post more often.....screw work.
     
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.....same here Smokie. I have been a long term investor for over 50 years.

    In fact I ONLY worked for 26 years of my......73 years of life....having retired at age 49. (Omitting my teen years jobs and part time jobs while in school) My ability to do that was as a result of being an investor......a fully invested all the time investor. If I was NOT an investor there is no way this would have happened.

    What we are seeing now is NOTHING compared to the inflation and economic mess of the late 1970's and early 1980's. NOTHING compared to the flash crash of 1987......NOTHING compared to the DOT COM crash to the 2000-2002 time span....NOTHING compared to the 2008/2009 teetering on a knife edge of a world wide economic collapse....etc, etc, etc.

    The ONLY thing that is different now is......the internet......and.....the collapse of any semblance of reality in the constant 24/7 reporting that is the modern media. That is just the world we live in. As an investor you just deal with it....or you give up and cash in.

    I prefer to just deal with it. AND....as usual....how I deal with it is by doing NOTHING. I will simply continue to invest for the long term as I always have.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    KEEP COOL.....have COURAGE....the FED will be done in a couple of days and we will move on in the new reality of the POST-FED rate hike era.

    No doubt the debt crisis and coming USA economic default will be the story for the month of May......but.....most of us will survive. And....over time we will.....THRIVE.
     
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  15. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Oh yes. That's why I find it so silly when they speak of 2008 bank deal and make comparisons. Not even remotely close at this point. The dot com deal was an experience....a costly experience, but valuable experience.
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ANYWAY.....I have more important things to do today than think about the markets.....like figuring out where to go to lunch. Now....there is a life altering decision.

    Even after I make that decision.....when I get there I am faced with looking at the menu and trying to decide what to order. OMG.....I cant stand the pressure.
     
  17. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Yes....run. From 1893 to this forum in 2023.
     
  18. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Looks like Energy and Financials are leading the red charge today.

    Some of the other regional banks feeling the heat.
     
  19. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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  20. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    IBM concedes to AI....I wonder how many of the other advertised layoffs are related to AI, but really were not disclosed as such or at the least in anticipation of it. I don't know, but it seems plausible.

    I also seen where CHGG (Chegg) was hammered today after reporting that AI is beginning to effect their user growth. CHGG is used quite a bit by the college students.

    IBM to pause hiring in plan to replace 7,800 jobs with AI
    (Reuters.)

    May 1 (Reuters) - International Business Machines Corp (IBM.N) expects to pause hiring for roles as roughly 7,800 jobs could be replaced by Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the coming years, CEO Arvind Krishna told Bloomberg News on Monday.

    Hiring specifically in back-office functions such as human resources will be suspended or slowed, Krishna said, adding that 30% of non-customer-facing roles could be replaced by AI and automations in five years.

    His comment comes at a time when AI has caught the imagination of people around the world after the launch of Microsoft Corp-backed (MSFT.O) OpenAI's viral chatbot, ChatGPT, in November last year.

    The reduction could include not replacing roles vacated by attrition, the PC-maker told the publication.

    IBM did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
     

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